Abstract This study tests for the presence of political cycles in Africa. Through an analysis encompassing data from 30 African nations over the period 1980–2020, we ask whether political incumbents in Africa rely on monetary and fiscal policy variables to improve their reelection prospects. In particular, we test for the existence of ‘conditional political cycles’, namely, we show that both government consumption and money growth go up during an election year, even when we account for critical institutional factors such as government attributes and political regimes. Our findings reveal a noticeable upswing in both government consumption and money growth during election years, a trend that holds consistent even after controlling for key institutional variables. Further exploration, however, unveils that this phenomenon is nuanced, particularly in the case of political monetary cycles; in particular, our analysis shows that when an African country is classified as a democracy during an election year, broad money falls. But although robust institutions can curtail the intensity of political monetary cycles, they do not exert a similar effect on fiscal variables. Finally, we test for the presence of ‘political credit cycles’ and find no empirical evidence that African incumbents manipulate credit markets to bolster their electoral outcomes.
{"title":"Conditional Political Cycles in Africa: Myth or Reality?","authors":"Christine O Strong","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study tests for the presence of political cycles in Africa. Through an analysis encompassing data from 30 African nations over the period 1980–2020, we ask whether political incumbents in Africa rely on monetary and fiscal policy variables to improve their reelection prospects. In particular, we test for the existence of ‘conditional political cycles’, namely, we show that both government consumption and money growth go up during an election year, even when we account for critical institutional factors such as government attributes and political regimes. Our findings reveal a noticeable upswing in both government consumption and money growth during election years, a trend that holds consistent even after controlling for key institutional variables. Further exploration, however, unveils that this phenomenon is nuanced, particularly in the case of political monetary cycles; in particular, our analysis shows that when an African country is classified as a democracy during an election year, broad money falls. But although robust institutions can curtail the intensity of political monetary cycles, they do not exert a similar effect on fiscal variables. Finally, we test for the presence of ‘political credit cycles’ and find no empirical evidence that African incumbents manipulate credit markets to bolster their electoral outcomes.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"58 1-2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135218630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We use a production function approach to investigate the factors that determine young adults' human capital outcomes in Madagascar and Senegal. Our study relies on unique and comparable panel data spanning over 15 years for both countries. We find that second-grade students' test scores are strong indicators of their French and math skills, as well as their educational attainment in their early twenties. Moreover, we observe that the association between second-grade skills and later-life outcomes is stronger among girls than boys, and in math test scores compared with French test scores. Our results emphasise the critical role of performing well during the early school years, as it predicts long-term outcomes, especially for vulnerable populations such as girls.
{"title":"Starting Strong: Investigating the Importance of Early Academic Performance for Adult Human Capital","authors":"Heidi Kaila, David E Sahn, Naveen Sunder","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We use a production function approach to investigate the factors that determine young adults' human capital outcomes in Madagascar and Senegal. Our study relies on unique and comparable panel data spanning over 15 years for both countries. We find that second-grade students' test scores are strong indicators of their French and math skills, as well as their educational attainment in their early twenties. Moreover, we observe that the association between second-grade skills and later-life outcomes is stronger among girls than boys, and in math test scores compared with French test scores. Our results emphasise the critical role of performing well during the early school years, as it predicts long-term outcomes, especially for vulnerable populations such as girls.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135719707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the impact of a large-scale Ethiopian government social protection program on long-term anthropometric measures of nutrition status, education attainment and enrollment delay. Our research design uses unique administrative data on the program's regional coverage and combines differences in the intensity of the program across regions with differences across cohorts induced by the timing of the program. Our findings show that exposure to the program in early childhood leads to better nutrition status and, hence, higher human capital accumulation. The results are robust to different measures for program intensity and different estimation samples, empirical models and placebo tests.
{"title":"Nutritional and Schooling Impact of a Social Protection Program in Ethiopia: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure","authors":"M. Mendola, M. Negasi","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper investigates the impact of a large-scale Ethiopian government social protection program on long-term anthropometric measures of nutrition status, education attainment and enrollment delay. Our research design uses unique administrative data on the program's regional coverage and combines differences in the intensity of the program across regions with differences across cohorts induced by the timing of the program. Our findings show that exposure to the program in early childhood leads to better nutrition status and, hence, higher human capital accumulation. The results are robust to different measures for program intensity and different estimation samples, empirical models and placebo tests.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47772561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the social capital implications of conditional and unconditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in Malawi, randomly assigning adolescent women and their households to either program or to a control group. Our results show that cash transfers have a positive aggregate effect on social capital, proxied by trust and gift giving. They also show positive intention-to-treat effects on both trust and gift giving in the short run but a negative spillover effect on gift giving in the long run. Moreover, we find that CCTs have greater positive effects on trust than the unconditional cash transfers (UCT). Further analyses reveal that adolescents with initial reciprocal beliefs drive the increase in trust. These results contribute to the current debate on whether CCTs or UCTs are better policy tools, adding the important ‘externality’ of social capital formation.
{"title":"Cash Transfers and Social Capital: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Malawi","authors":"H. Mesfin, F. Cecchi","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We examine the social capital implications of conditional and unconditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in Malawi, randomly assigning adolescent women and their households to either program or to a control group. Our results show that cash transfers have a positive aggregate effect on social capital, proxied by trust and gift giving. They also show positive intention-to-treat effects on both trust and gift giving in the short run but a negative spillover effect on gift giving in the long run. Moreover, we find that CCTs have greater positive effects on trust than the unconditional cash transfers (UCT). Further analyses reveal that adolescents with initial reciprocal beliefs drive the increase in trust. These results contribute to the current debate on whether CCTs or UCTs are better policy tools, adding the important ‘externality’ of social capital formation.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46180436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How are the effects of voter education campaigns transmitted within the household? During the 2009 Mozambican elections, a field experiment implemented three voter education interventions: the distribution of a free newspaper, the creation of an SMS hotline to report electoral problems and a civic education campaign. Based on a relatively small sample of untreated individuals living with experimental subjects, this paper examines the diffusion of the interventions' effects within the household. The study finds evidence of spillover effects on interest in elections and turnout. But it finds no evidence of spillover effects on information about elections, nor evidence of spillover effects triggered by the delivery of the newspaper, the treatment most focused on the dissemination of information. On one hand, these findings show that voter education campaigns reach other individuals beyond the targeted subjects. On the other hand, they suggest that some voter education campaigns might boost turnout by increasing social pressure to vote rather than raising the level of information among voters. This paper highlights the need for additional research to probe unintended side effects of voter education campaigns.
{"title":"‘You Should Vote because I Say So!’ Influence towards Voting within Mozambican Households","authors":"Ana Vaz","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad015","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 How are the effects of voter education campaigns transmitted within the household? During the 2009 Mozambican elections, a field experiment implemented three voter education interventions: the distribution of a free newspaper, the creation of an SMS hotline to report electoral problems and a civic education campaign. Based on a relatively small sample of untreated individuals living with experimental subjects, this paper examines the diffusion of the interventions' effects within the household. The study finds evidence of spillover effects on interest in elections and turnout. But it finds no evidence of spillover effects on information about elections, nor evidence of spillover effects triggered by the delivery of the newspaper, the treatment most focused on the dissemination of information. On one hand, these findings show that voter education campaigns reach other individuals beyond the targeted subjects. On the other hand, they suggest that some voter education campaigns might boost turnout by increasing social pressure to vote rather than raising the level of information among voters. This paper highlights the need for additional research to probe unintended side effects of voter education campaigns.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49464086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Laura Alzúa, Natalia Cantet, A. Dammert, D. Olajide
Many countries in the developing world have implemented old-age pensions. Evidence of the impact of such policies on the elderly in sub-Saharan Africa, however, is scarce. We provide evidence from a randomised evaluation of an unconditional old-age pension targeted at the elderly in Ekiti State, Nigeria. Our findings show that treated beneficiaries self-report better quality of life and a more stable mental health. We also provide evidence of spillover effects on the labor outcomes of other household members and of household savings patterns as well as support for interventions aimed at improving the welfare of elderly poor citizens and other household members.
{"title":"The Well-being Effects of an Old-Age Pension: Experimental Evidence for Ekiti State in Nigeria","authors":"Maria Laura Alzúa, Natalia Cantet, A. Dammert, D. Olajide","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad012","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Many countries in the developing world have implemented old-age pensions. Evidence of the impact of such policies on the elderly in sub-Saharan Africa, however, is scarce. We provide evidence from a randomised evaluation of an unconditional old-age pension targeted at the elderly in Ekiti State, Nigeria. Our findings show that treated beneficiaries self-report better quality of life and a more stable mental health. We also provide evidence of spillover effects on the labor outcomes of other household members and of household savings patterns as well as support for interventions aimed at improving the welfare of elderly poor citizens and other household members.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46536806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using 1.2.3 survey data on the Democratic Republic of Congo, we highlight different sectors in the labor market, with ‘higher paid’ sectors that are largely formal and ‘lower paid’ sectors that are largely informal. Based on a linear regression model, we report significant heterogeneity in earnings across sectors, which remain after controlling for aspects of human capital. We use a multinomial logit model to identify sector choice and show, allowing for selection, how returns to human capital differ across these sectors. We find that returns to basic education are important in largely informal sectors and that tertiary education is very important to access the higher paid sectors, but less important than in the lower paid sectors in increasing earnings once there. We then extend this analysis using quantile regression to show how returns differ across the distribution within sectors. Finally, we decompose the earnings gap across sectors and check how characteristics and return on these characteristics affect the cross-sector earnings gap. The earnings gap decomposition shows that workers of the lower paid sectors earn less, not only because they are less skill-endowed but also because they earn lower returns on their skills.
{"title":"Earning Structure and Heterogeneity of the Labor Market: Evidence from DR Congo","authors":"Douglas Amuli Ibale","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Using 1.2.3 survey data on the Democratic Republic of Congo, we highlight different sectors in the labor market, with ‘higher paid’ sectors that are largely formal and ‘lower paid’ sectors that are largely informal. Based on a linear regression model, we report significant heterogeneity in earnings across sectors, which remain after controlling for aspects of human capital. We use a multinomial logit model to identify sector choice and show, allowing for selection, how returns to human capital differ across these sectors. We find that returns to basic education are important in largely informal sectors and that tertiary education is very important to access the higher paid sectors, but less important than in the lower paid sectors in increasing earnings once there. We then extend this analysis using quantile regression to show how returns differ across the distribution within sectors. Finally, we decompose the earnings gap across sectors and check how characteristics and return on these characteristics affect the cross-sector earnings gap. The earnings gap decomposition shows that workers of the lower paid sectors earn less, not only because they are less skill-endowed but also because they earn lower returns on their skills.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49287578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Theory suggests that rural farm households exposed to greater risk should diversify their income portfolios to reduce variation in welfare caused by adverse events such as rainfall shocks. Rainfall shocks, however, can also degrade asset stocks and make diversification more costly. Using a panel dataset of small-scale cattle farmers from rural Togo and long-term historical rainfall data, we first examine whether and in what direction rural portfolio diversification is related to historical rainfall shocks. Second, we test whether diversification is associated with stabilised welfare in the face of recent rainfall shocks. Our results show that historical rainfall shock exposure reduces income diversification. In terms of mitigation, we find that diversification is generally not effective in insulating against welfare losses. We conclude that there is a need to stimulate rural diversification as a means of building resilient livelihoods to cope with increasing weather variability by strengthening credit, agricultural and market institutions.
{"title":"Rainfall Shocks, Livelihood Diversification and Welfare: Evidence from Rural Togo","authors":"A. Weyori, Sabine Liebenehm","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Theory suggests that rural farm households exposed to greater risk should diversify their income portfolios to reduce variation in welfare caused by adverse events such as rainfall shocks. Rainfall shocks, however, can also degrade asset stocks and make diversification more costly. Using a panel dataset of small-scale cattle farmers from rural Togo and long-term historical rainfall data, we first examine whether and in what direction rural portfolio diversification is related to historical rainfall shocks. Second, we test whether diversification is associated with stabilised welfare in the face of recent rainfall shocks. Our results show that historical rainfall shock exposure reduces income diversification. In terms of mitigation, we find that diversification is generally not effective in insulating against welfare losses. We conclude that there is a need to stimulate rural diversification as a means of building resilient livelihoods to cope with increasing weather variability by strengthening credit, agricultural and market institutions.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46617375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aregawi G Gebremariam, Elisabetta Lodigiani, Giacomo Pasini
Abstract The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) was launched by the government of Ethiopia in 2005 to support food-insecure rural households. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of PSNP on children's educational aspirations and actual attainments. We use longitudinal data from the Ethiopian sample of the Young Lives' survey and by means of a differences-in-differences, individual fixed-effects estimator, we find that the program increases both educational aspirations and actual attainment of children. In our preferred specification, the immediate effect (after 3 years) of the program is to increase by 1.05 years of educational aspirations and by about 0.35 years actual education of children. Furthermore, there is evidence that the program has significant effect even in the long run (after 6 years). The results point to broad and long-lasting positive effects on children education of a program designed primarily to relieve chronically poor households from food insecurity.
{"title":"The Impact of Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program on Children's Educational Aspirations and Attainments","authors":"Aregawi G Gebremariam, Elisabetta Lodigiani, Giacomo Pasini","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) was launched by the government of Ethiopia in 2005 to support food-insecure rural households. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of PSNP on children's educational aspirations and actual attainments. We use longitudinal data from the Ethiopian sample of the Young Lives' survey and by means of a differences-in-differences, individual fixed-effects estimator, we find that the program increases both educational aspirations and actual attainment of children. In our preferred specification, the immediate effect (after 3 years) of the program is to increase by 1.05 years of educational aspirations and by about 0.35 years actual education of children. Furthermore, there is evidence that the program has significant effect even in the long run (after 6 years). The results point to broad and long-lasting positive effects on children education of a program designed primarily to relieve chronically poor households from food insecurity.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135574658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article investigates the effect of women's schooling on fertility as well as on associated mechanisms by leveraging Burundi's free primary education policy (FPE) of 2005 as a natural experiment. Exogenous variation in schooling is identified through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show that educational attainment was positively influenced by Burundi's FPE for women situated at all wealth levels. However, the relevant downstream effects of schooling—measured by fertility, literacy and work outcomes—reveal heterogenous treatment effects which are moderated by women's household wealth. While poor women profit in terms of increases in literacy (6.7 percentage-point increase for each year of policy-induced schooling), remunerated employment opportunities (5.7 percentage-point increase), as well as a reduction in desired and actual fertility outcomes (6.9 percentage-point reduction in teenage childbirth), none of these effects of additional education are observed for women from the wealthier households of our sample. The evidence of such a marked heterogeneity contributes to the growing literature examining the nexus between education and fertility in developing countries and helps to evaluate under which conditions the literature's findings may generalize.
{"title":"Heterogeneous Effects of Women's Schooling on Fertility, Literacy and Work: Evidence from Burundi's Free Primary Education Policy","authors":"Frederik Wild, D. Stadelmann","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad002","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the effect of women's schooling on fertility as well as on associated mechanisms by leveraging Burundi's free primary education policy (FPE) of 2005 as a natural experiment. Exogenous variation in schooling is identified through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design. Our results show that educational attainment was positively influenced by Burundi's FPE for women situated at all wealth levels. However, the relevant downstream effects of schooling—measured by fertility, literacy and work outcomes—reveal heterogenous treatment effects which are moderated by women's household wealth. While poor women profit in terms of increases in literacy (6.7 percentage-point increase for each year of policy-induced schooling), remunerated employment opportunities (5.7 percentage-point increase), as well as a reduction in desired and actual fertility outcomes (6.9 percentage-point reduction in teenage childbirth), none of these effects of additional education are observed for women from the wealthier households of our sample. The evidence of such a marked heterogeneity contributes to the growing literature examining the nexus between education and fertility in developing countries and helps to evaluate under which conditions the literature's findings may generalize.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46314849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：