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Effect of Foreign Direct Investments on Industrialisation: The Case of China in Africa 外国直接投资对工业化的影响:中国在非洲的案例
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad026
Ding Chen, Aliyu Buhari Isah, U. Gummi
China's engagement in Africa's economic domain has sparked disagreement among researchers and the mainstream media on whether the engagement benefits Africa as a host. There are also ongoing concerns that the new China-Africa relationship is only benefiting China at the expense of Africa. In this paper, we examine the effect of China's FDI on industrialisation in Africa based on the instrumental variables Generalized Methods of Moment (IV-GMM) model, using a sample of 36 African countries and data spanning from 2003 to 2020. We find that China's FDI slightly promotes industrialisation in Africa. In isolation, the effect of China's FDI on industrialisation is larger in high-recipient countries of China's FDI than in low-recipient countries due to disparity in the absorptive capacities of the countries. However, we find that countries' characteristics such as domestic investment, financial development, infrastructure, human capital and institutional qualities, among others, play a significant role in promoting industrialisation in Africa. Therefore, we propose some important policy implications in line with the empirical findings.
中国在非洲经济领域的参与引发了研究人员和主流媒体对这种参与是否有利于作为东道主的非洲的分歧。此外,人们还一直担心,新的中非关系只会让中国受益,而非洲则会受到损害。本文基于工具变量广义矩量法(IV-GMM)模型,使用 36 个非洲国家的样本和 2003 年至 2020 年的数据,研究了中国外国直接投资对非洲工业化的影响。我们发现,中国的外国直接投资略微促进了非洲的工业化。孤立地看,由于各国吸收能力的差异,中国外国直接投资对工业化的影响在中国外国直接投资高接受国要大于低接受国。然而,我们发现,国内投资、金融发展、基础设施、人力资本和制度质量等国家特征在促进非洲工业化方面发挥着重要作用。因此,我们根据实证研究结果提出了一些重要的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of Foreign Direct Investments on Industrialisation: The Case of China in Africa 外国直接投资对工业化的影响:中国在非洲的案例
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad026
Ding Chen, Aliyu Buhari Isah, U. Gummi
China's engagement in Africa's economic domain has sparked disagreement among researchers and the mainstream media on whether the engagement benefits Africa as a host. There are also ongoing concerns that the new China-Africa relationship is only benefiting China at the expense of Africa. In this paper, we examine the effect of China's FDI on industrialisation in Africa based on the instrumental variables Generalized Methods of Moment (IV-GMM) model, using a sample of 36 African countries and data spanning from 2003 to 2020. We find that China's FDI slightly promotes industrialisation in Africa. In isolation, the effect of China's FDI on industrialisation is larger in high-recipient countries of China's FDI than in low-recipient countries due to disparity in the absorptive capacities of the countries. However, we find that countries' characteristics such as domestic investment, financial development, infrastructure, human capital and institutional qualities, among others, play a significant role in promoting industrialisation in Africa. Therefore, we propose some important policy implications in line with the empirical findings.
中国在非洲经济领域的参与引发了研究人员和主流媒体对这种参与是否有利于作为东道主的非洲的分歧。此外,人们还一直担心,新的中非关系只会让中国受益,而非洲则会受到损害。本文基于工具变量广义矩量法(IV-GMM)模型,使用 36 个非洲国家的样本和 2003 年至 2020 年的数据,研究了中国外国直接投资对非洲工业化的影响。我们发现,中国的外国直接投资略微促进了非洲的工业化。孤立地看,由于各国吸收能力的差异,中国外国直接投资对工业化的影响在中国外国直接投资高接受国要大于低接受国。然而,我们发现,国内投资、金融发展、基础设施、人力资本和制度质量等国家特征在促进非洲工业化方面发挥着重要作用。因此,我们根据实证研究结果提出了一些重要的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Inflationary Impact of a Large Devaluation across the Income Distribution: The Case of Egypt in 2016 大幅贬值对收入分布的通胀影响:2016 年埃及案例
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad025
Shireen Alazzawi, Vladimir Hlasny
Large-scale currency devaluations often result in rapid inflation, disproportionately affecting households with lower incomes, as they typically allocate a higher portion of their expenses to tradable goods. In this study, we examine cost-of-living changes of households across the income distribution in a relatively highly regulated, modest-inequality economy—Egypt—following the November 2016 devaluation of the Egyptian Pound when it depreciated by approximately 50%. We model the exchange rate pass through to domestic prices of various commodities, and the consumption responses by distinct economic groups, using true cost-of-living indices. We first quantify the exchange-rate pass-through to commodity prices, and then introduce a readily applicable methodology based on minimal data requirements to study the distributional implications for households’ cost of living and welfare, taking substitution effects and changes in preferences into consideration. Our findings reveal that over 30% of the rise in the cost of living of the average household was due to the devaluation, raising the amount of compensating variation necessary to keep households at their 2015 real welfare levels by 30% to 40% compared to the counterfactual scenario absent devaluation. These effects were more pronounced for some regions and among the poorest households. These disparities in welfare effects underscore the importance of designing and implementing targeted transfers to mitigate the negative impact of similar devaluations.
大规模货币贬值通常会导致快速通货膨胀,对低收入家庭的影响尤为严重,因为他们通常会将较高比例的支出用于可交易商品。在本研究中,我们考察了在一个相对高度管制、质量不高的经济体--埃及,2016 年 11 月埃及镑贬值约 50%之后,不同收入分配的家庭的生活成本变化。我们利用真实生活成本指数,模拟汇率对国内各种商品价格的传导,以及不同经济群体的消费反应。我们首先量化了汇率对商品价格的传导,然后在考虑替代效应和偏好变化的基础上,引入了一种基于最低数据要求的简便适用的方法,以研究对家庭生活成本和福利的分配影响。我们的研究结果表明,普通家庭生活成本增加的 30% 以上是由货币贬值造成的,与没有货币贬值的反事实情景相比,为使家庭保持在 2015 年的实际福利水平所需的补偿性变化增加了 30% 至 40%。这些影响在某些地区和最贫困家庭中更为明显。这些福利效应的差异凸显了设计和实施有针对性的转移支付以减轻类似贬值的负面影响的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Does Youth Resentment Matter in Understanding the Surge of Extremist Violence in Burkina Faso? 要理解布基纳法索极端主义暴力的激增,青年的不满情绪重要吗?
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad023
Alexandra T Tapsoba, Jean-Louis Combes, Pascal Combes Motel
The year 2019 marked an unprecedented step in violence in Burkina Faso. Before 2018, attacks targeted central government officials and expatriates. In 2019, the victims of sexual assaults, attacks, abductions or forced disappearances and assassinations were mostly local civilians. The surge in these violent attacks against civilians generates population movements. As of 2023, internally displaced people represent about 10% of the total population in the country. Several observers point to the youth of the attackers. This study investigates the motives that could drive young people to resort to violence in the country. It aims to highlight youth resentment's effect on violence against civilians in the country as of 2019. It takes advantage of one of the latest nationwide United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF)-sponsored surveys conducted in Burkina Faso before some parts of the country became inaccessible because of attacks. Among other information, this survey collected data on youth resentment towards the ability of their kinship to fulfil their needs in 2018, namely before the shift in violence against civilians. We merge this survey into an original dataset that gathers data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), mining data from the MINEX project and distance data computed using Burkina Faso's roads information. The results of an event count model show that youth resentment matters in understanding the occurrence of conflicts. Moreover, the presence of mining companies, the remoteness of infrastructures, ethnic diversity and polarisation also significantly affect violence against civilians.
2019 年,布基纳法索的暴力事件空前增多。2018年之前,袭击的目标是中央政府官员和外籍人士。2019年,性侵犯、袭击、绑架或强迫失踪和暗杀的受害者大多是当地平民。这些针对平民的暴力袭击激增,导致人口流动。截至 2023 年,境内流离失所者约占该国总人口的 10%。一些观察家指出袭击者年轻化。本研究调查了可能促使该国年轻人诉诸暴力的动机。研究旨在强调青年的不满情绪对截至 2019 年该国针对平民的暴力行为的影响。本研究利用了联合国儿童基金会(UNICEF)赞助的一项最新全国性调查,该调查是在布基纳法索部分地区因袭击而无法进入之前进行的。除其他信息外,该调查还收集了 2018 年(即针对平民的暴力行为发生转变之前)青年对其亲属满足其需求的能力的不满情绪数据。我们将这项调查合并到一个原始数据集中,该数据集收集了武装冲突地点和事件数据项目(ACLED)的数据、MINEX 项目的采矿数据以及利用布基纳法索道路信息计算的距离数据。事件计数模型的结果表明,青年的不满情绪对了解冲突的发生很重要。此外,矿业公司的存在、基础设施的偏远程度、种族多样性和两极分化也对针对平民的暴力行为产生了重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Labour Mobility and Innovation in Africa 非洲的劳动力流动和创新
3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad020
Linguère Mously Mbaye, Assi Okara, Massimiliano Tani
Abstract We investigate whether short-term mobility differentially affects innovation in product or process through the help of a theoretical model, and carry out an empirical analysis with a focus on African countries using firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey. We find that labour mobility positively affects innovation, especially for products and services, supporting its use as an effective mechanism to diffuse productive knowledge and foster innovation. We also find that short-term mobility benefits low-technology sectors the most, and that mobility from high-income countries may be an effective way of leveraging innovation in high-technology sectors in Africa. The results are robust to a variety of approaches controlling for endogeneity, and support the adoption of labour mobility nationally and across Africa to encourage labour mobility to promote domestic innovation and productivity.
本文通过理论模型探讨了短期流动性对产品创新和流程创新的影响是否存在差异,并利用世界银行企业调查的企业层面数据对非洲国家进行了实证分析。我们发现,劳动力流动对创新,特别是产品和服务的创新产生了积极影响,支持其作为一种有效的机制来传播生产性知识和促进创新。我们还发现,短期流动性对低技术部门最有利,高收入国家的流动性可能是撬动非洲高技术部门创新的有效途径。研究结果对控制内生性的各种方法都是强有力的,并支持在全国和整个非洲采用劳动力流动,以鼓励劳动力流动,促进国内创新和生产力。
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引用次数: 0
Conditional Political Cycles in Africa: Myth or Reality? 非洲有条件的政治周期:神话还是现实?
3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad019
Christine O Strong
Abstract This study tests for the presence of political cycles in Africa. Through an analysis encompassing data from 30 African nations over the period 1980–2020, we ask whether political incumbents in Africa rely on monetary and fiscal policy variables to improve their reelection prospects. In particular, we test for the existence of ‘conditional political cycles’, namely, we show that both government consumption and money growth go up during an election year, even when we account for critical institutional factors such as government attributes and political regimes. Our findings reveal a noticeable upswing in both government consumption and money growth during election years, a trend that holds consistent even after controlling for key institutional variables. Further exploration, however, unveils that this phenomenon is nuanced, particularly in the case of political monetary cycles; in particular, our analysis shows that when an African country is classified as a democracy during an election year, broad money falls. But although robust institutions can curtail the intensity of political monetary cycles, they do not exert a similar effect on fiscal variables. Finally, we test for the presence of ‘political credit cycles’ and find no empirical evidence that African incumbents manipulate credit markets to bolster their electoral outcomes.
摘要本研究检验了非洲政治周期的存在。通过对1980年至2020年期间30个非洲国家的数据进行分析,我们询问非洲的政治现任者是否依赖货币和财政政策变量来改善他们的连任前景。特别是,我们测试了“有条件的政治周期”的存在,也就是说,我们表明,即使我们考虑到政府属性和政治制度等关键制度因素,政府消费和货币增长在选举年也会上升。我们的研究结果显示,在选举年,政府消费和资金增长都明显上升,即使在控制了关键的制度变量之后,这一趋势也保持一致。然而,进一步的探索揭示了这种现象是微妙的,特别是在政治货币周期的情况下;特别是,我们的分析表明,当一个非洲国家在选举年被归类为民主国家时,广义资金就会下降。但是,尽管健全的制度可以减少政治货币周期的强度,但它们对财政变量却没有类似的影响。最后,我们测试了“政治信贷周期”的存在,发现没有经验证据表明非洲现任者操纵信贷市场以支持他们的选举结果。
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引用次数: 0
Starting Strong: Investigating the Importance of Early Academic Performance for Adult Human Capital 强势起步:早期学业表现对成人人力资本重要性的调查
3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad018
Heidi Kaila, David E Sahn, Naveen Sunder
Abstract We use a production function approach to investigate the factors that determine young adults' human capital outcomes in Madagascar and Senegal. Our study relies on unique and comparable panel data spanning over 15 years for both countries. We find that second-grade students' test scores are strong indicators of their French and math skills, as well as their educational attainment in their early twenties. Moreover, we observe that the association between second-grade skills and later-life outcomes is stronger among girls than boys, and in math test scores compared with French test scores. Our results emphasise the critical role of performing well during the early school years, as it predicts long-term outcomes, especially for vulnerable populations such as girls.
摘要本文采用生产函数方法研究了马达加斯加和塞内加尔年轻人人力资本产出的影响因素。我们的研究依赖于两国超过15年的独特和可比较的面板数据。我们发现,二年级学生的考试成绩是他们的法语和数学技能的有力指标,以及他们在20岁出头时的受教育程度。此外,我们观察到二年级技能与晚年生活结果之间的关联在女孩中强于男孩,在数学考试成绩中强于法语考试成绩。我们的研究结果强调了在学校早期表现良好的关键作用,因为它预测了长期的结果,特别是对女孩等弱势群体。
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引用次数: 0
Nutritional and Schooling Impact of a Social Protection Program in Ethiopia: A Retrospective Analysis of Childhood Exposure 埃塞俄比亚社会保护计划对营养和学校教育的影响:儿童暴露的回顾性分析
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad016
M. Mendola, M. Negasi
This paper investigates the impact of a large-scale Ethiopian government social protection program on long-term anthropometric measures of nutrition status, education attainment and enrollment delay. Our research design uses unique administrative data on the program's regional coverage and combines differences in the intensity of the program across regions with differences across cohorts induced by the timing of the program. Our findings show that exposure to the program in early childhood leads to better nutrition status and, hence, higher human capital accumulation. The results are robust to different measures for program intensity and different estimation samples, empirical models and placebo tests.
本文调查了埃塞俄比亚政府大规模社会保护计划对营养状况、教育程度和入学延迟的长期人体测量的影响。我们的研究设计使用了关于该项目区域覆盖范围的独特行政数据,并将不同地区的项目强度差异与由项目时间引起的不同人群的差异相结合。我们的研究结果表明,在儿童早期接触该项目可以改善营养状况,从而提高人力资本积累。结果对项目强度的不同衡量标准、不同的估计样本、经验模型和安慰剂测试都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
Cash Transfers and Social Capital: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Malawi 现金转移和社会资本:来自马拉维随机对照试验的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad017
H. Mesfin, F. Cecchi
We examine the social capital implications of conditional and unconditional cash transfer (CCT) programs in Malawi, randomly assigning adolescent women and their households to either program or to a control group. Our results show that cash transfers have a positive aggregate effect on social capital, proxied by trust and gift giving. They also show positive intention-to-treat effects on both trust and gift giving in the short run but a negative spillover effect on gift giving in the long run. Moreover, we find that CCTs have greater positive effects on trust than the unconditional cash transfers (UCT). Further analyses reveal that adolescents with initial reciprocal beliefs drive the increase in trust. These results contribute to the current debate on whether CCTs or UCTs are better policy tools, adding the important ‘externality’ of social capital formation.
我们研究了马拉维有条件和无条件现金转移(CCT)项目的社会资本影响,随机将青少年妇女及其家庭分配到项目或对照组。研究结果表明,现金转移对社会资本具有正的累积效应,以信任和赠与为代表。在短期内,他们对信任和礼物赠送都表现出积极的意向处理效应,但在长期内,他们对礼物赠送表现出消极的溢出效应。此外,我们发现有条件现金转移比无条件现金转移对信任有更大的正向影响。进一步的分析表明,具有初始互惠信念的青少年推动了信任的增加。这些结果有助于当前关于有条件现金转移支付还是自愿转移支付是更好的政策工具的辩论,并增加了社会资本形成的重要“外部性”。
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引用次数: 0
‘You Should Vote because I Say So!’ Influence towards Voting within Mozambican Households “你应该投票,因为我这么说!”对莫桑比克家庭投票的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejad015
Ana Vaz
How are the effects of voter education campaigns transmitted within the household? During the 2009 Mozambican elections, a field experiment implemented three voter education interventions: the distribution of a free newspaper, the creation of an SMS hotline to report electoral problems and a civic education campaign. Based on a relatively small sample of untreated individuals living with experimental subjects, this paper examines the diffusion of the interventions' effects within the household. The study finds evidence of spillover effects on interest in elections and turnout. But it finds no evidence of spillover effects on information about elections, nor evidence of spillover effects triggered by the delivery of the newspaper, the treatment most focused on the dissemination of information. On one hand, these findings show that voter education campaigns reach other individuals beyond the targeted subjects. On the other hand, they suggest that some voter education campaigns might boost turnout by increasing social pressure to vote rather than raising the level of information among voters. This paper highlights the need for additional research to probe unintended side effects of voter education campaigns.
选民教育运动的影响是如何在家庭内部传播的?在2009年莫桑比克选举期间,一项实地试验实施了三项选民教育干预措施:分发一份免费报纸,设立一条短信热线报告选举问题,以及开展公民教育运动。基于一个相对较小的未经治疗的与实验对象生活在一起的个体样本,本文考察了干预措施的效果在家庭中的扩散。这项研究发现了对选举兴趣和投票率产生溢出效应的证据。但它没有发现任何证据表明选举信息会产生溢出效应,也没有证据表明报纸的传播会引发溢出效应,而报纸的传播是最关注信息传播的处理方式。一方面,这些发现表明,选民教育运动影响到了目标对象之外的其他人。另一方面,他们认为,一些选民教育运动可能会通过增加社会投票压力而不是提高选民的信息水平来提高投票率。这篇论文强调需要进行更多的研究,以调查选民教育运动的意外副作用。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of African Economies
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