Journal of African Economies最新文献

英文中文

Optimal Public Investment in Resource-Rich Low-Income Countries 资源丰富的低收入国家的最优公共投资

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-07-15 DOI: 10.1093/JAE/EJAB016

Aliya Algozhina

Recent studies have found that resource-rich low-income countries are better off investing their resource revenues domestically rather than saving them abroad in a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). This paper finds an optimal rule-based policy of accumulating public capital and its associated public investment path in a perfect foresight general equilibrium model. The model has several specific features different from the existing frameworks: the policy rule for public capital is introduced. Public investment is inefficient and has its absorptive capacity constraint costs. External savings clear the government budget. There is a variable share of resource revenues to accumulate the SWF, and the natural resource sector is assumed to be capital-intensive with its foreign direct investment shock. Based on calibration for African countries, the study finds that the front-loaded public investment path is optimal given an initial one-period resource windfall, public investment inefficiency and absorptive capacity constraints in the economies. This result also holds under less productive public capital and more patient households, while a scenario of no resource windfall produces the welfare loss due to a steady increase in consumption tax to finance public investment.

最近的研究发现，资源丰富的低收入国家最好将其资源收入投资于国内，而不是将其存入主权财富基金。本文在一个完全前瞻的一般均衡模型中找到了一个基于规则的公共资本积累最优政策及其相关的公共投资路径。该模型有几个不同于现有框架的具体特征：引入了公共资本的政策规则。公共投资效率低下，其吸收能力制约了成本。外部储蓄为政府预算扫清了障碍。资源收入中有一个可变的份额来积累主权财富基金，自然资源部门被认为是资本密集型的，其外国直接投资受到冲击。在对非洲国家进行校准的基础上，研究发现，考虑到最初一个时期的资源意外之财、公共投资效率低下和经济体的吸收能力限制，前期公共投资路径是最优的。这一结果也适用于生产力较低的公共资本和更有耐心的家庭，而由于为公共投资提供资金而稳步提高消费税，没有资源的意外之财会产生福利损失。

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引用次数: 2

Path Dependence in Disability. 残疾的路径依赖

IF 1.4 3区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-07-07 eCollection Date: 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejab013

Neha Agarwal, Hans-Peter Kohler, Subha Mani

The average prevalence of disability in most African countries is 10%, but for many it exceeds the global disability prevalence rate of 15%. The extent to which this disability capturing functional and activity limitations results in permanent job loss, lowered lifetime income and assets, in part, depends upon the extent to which the onset of limitations becomes permanent. In this paper, we use five rounds of longitudinal data from rural Malawi, a low-income African country with high prevalence of disability, to examine path dependence in activity limitations. We estimate a dynamic linear panel data model where the coefficient on the one-period lagged health outcome captures path dependence in limitations. Our preferred Arellano-Bover estimates show that males experience partial persistence in both the incidence and intensity of severe limitations and no persistence in other limitations. Females, on the other hand, exhibit no persistence in any type of limitations. Our findings have important policy implications for computing the long-term costs associated with onset of activity limitations as these costs can be moderated by the recovery exhibited in these limitations.

大多数非洲国家的平均残疾发生率为 10%，但许多国家的残疾发生率超过了 15%的全球残疾发生率。这种功能和活动受限的残疾在多大程度上会导致永久性失业、终生收入和资产减少，部分取决于残疾的发生在多大程度上是永久性的。在本文中，我们使用了马拉维农村地区的五轮纵向数据来研究活动受限的路径依赖性，马拉维是一个低收入的非洲国家，残疾发生率很高。我们估计了一个动态线性面板数据模型，其中滞后一期的健康结果系数捕捉了活动受限的路径依赖性。我们首选的 Arellano-Bover 估计结果表明，男性在严重活动受限的发生率和强度方面具有部分持续性，而在其他活动受限方面则没有持续性。另一方面，女性在任何类型的限制方面都没有表现出持续性。我们的研究结果对于计算与活动受限相关的长期成本具有重要的政策意义，因为这些成本会因活动受限的恢复情况而有所缓和。

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引用次数: 0

Natural Resources, International Commodity Prices and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2019) 撒哈拉以南非洲的自然资源、国际商品价格和经济表现（1990-2019）

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-07-06 DOI: 10.1093/JAE/EJAB014

Ben Katoka, Jörg Michael Dostal

In this paper, we investigate the link between windfall gains and losses of income associated with commodity exports and economic performance in a panel of 45 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period from 1990 to 2019. Windfall gains and losses of income are measured in terms of fluctuations in a country-specific commodity terms of trade (CTOT) index in which each commodity is weighted by the ratio of exports of that commodity in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The CTOT index therefore reflects the commodity export specialisation for individual countries. The data on CTOT are taken from the International Monetary Fund. Additionally, we use changes in real GDP per capita as our SSA economic performance measure. We employ a random coefficient model that yields individual estimates for each of the countries included in the analysis. Our approach is based on the assumption that the effect of windfall gains and losses on real GDP per capita growth varies across different SSA countries. Our main conclusion can be elaborated as follows: first, natural resources have undoubtedly contributed to higher economic growth in SSA countries since 1990. Second, when SSA countries are analytically divided into two groups depending on their commodity export specialisation, we find that resource-rich countries—in particular oil rich—are the best economic growth performers during the observation period. Finally, we find that windfall gains from commodity exports are not significantly associated with increased real GDP per capita growth in most agriculture-exporting countries.

在本文中，我们研究了1990年至2019年期间45个撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家与商品出口相关的意外收益和损失与经济表现之间的联系。收入的意外收益和损失是根据一国特定商品贸易条件指数的波动来衡量的，在该指数中，每种商品以该商品出口占该国国内生产总值的比例加权。因此，CTOT指数反映了单个国家的商品出口专业化程度。CTOT的数据来自国际货币基金组织。此外，我们使用实际人均GDP的变化作为我们的SSA经济绩效衡量标准。我们采用随机系数模型，对分析中包括的每个国家产生单独的估计。我们的方法基于以下假设:意外收益和损失对实际人均GDP增长的影响在不同的SSA国家有所不同。我们的主要结论可以阐述如下:第一，自1990年以来，自然资源无疑对SSA国家的较高经济增长做出了贡献。其次，当SSA国家根据其商品出口专业化程度被分析分为两组时，我们发现资源丰富的国家——尤其是石油丰富的国家——在观察期间是经济增长表现最好的国家。最后，我们发现，在大多数农业出口国，大宗商品出口的意外收益与实际人均GDP增长的增加没有显著关联。

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引用次数: 23

Challenges in Changing Social Norms: Evidence from Interventions Targeting Child Marriage in Ethiopia 改变社会规范的挑战:来自埃塞俄比亚针对童婚的干预措施的证据

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-06-30 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejab010

Vinci Chow, Eva Vivalt

We study a set of interventions in Ethiopia geared towards eliminating child marriage. The interventions facilitate community discussion about child marriage and provide economic incentives for girls to stay in school and remain unmarried. Changing social norms is often thought of as very difficult, and if there is a marriage penalty to being among the first to deviate to an older age of marriage, raising the typical age at first marriage could be especially challenging. Regardless, using weighting and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that both interventions reduce the probability a girl from 8 to 17 years old has been married by about 4 to 7 percentage points. We observe some positive spillover effects: the program appears to have increased the intra-household decision-making power of women. However, we also find suggestive evidence of increased polarisation in beliefs about child marriage, including some possible backlash especially among men. No robust effects were seen on education outcomes, suggesting that, in contrast to other studies, this was not the mechanism through which the intervention had an effect.

我们研究了埃塞俄比亚旨在消除童婚的一系列干预措施。这些干预措施促进了社区对童婚的讨论，并为女孩留在学校和未婚提供了经济激励。改变社会规范通常被认为是非常困难的，如果第一批偏离结婚年龄的人会受到婚姻惩罚，那么提高初婚的典型年龄可能尤其具有挑战性。无论如何，使用加权和差异分析法，我们发现这两种干预措施都将8至17岁女孩结婚的概率降低了约4至7个百分点。我们观察到一些积极的溢出效应：该计划似乎增加了妇女的家庭内部决策权。然而，我们也发现了关于童婚信仰两极分化加剧的暗示性证据，包括一些可能的反弹，尤其是在男性中。没有发现对教育结果的强烈影响，这表明，与其他研究相比，这不是干预产生影响的机制。

引用次数: 7

Investment Motives in Africa: What Does the Meta-Analytic Review Tell? 非洲的投资动机：元分析评论说明了什么？

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejab011

A. Anwar, I. Iwasaki, U. Dornberger

Over the past two decades, Africa has witnessed a dramatic increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) despite a lack of significant changes in infrastructure and the host country’s policies. What are the motives to invest in Africa? How do these investment motives differ for firms from developed and emerging markets? Several studies empirically tested these questions, however, provided inconclusive results. By taking 735 estimates extracted from 51 studies and applying advanced meta-analysis techniques, this study examines the motives of FDI in Africa. We found that compared to market-seeking motive, the effect size of resource seeking and efficiency seeking is larger (smaller) on FDI attractiveness in Africa. In terms of effect size, the impact of asset-seeking motive on FDI is statistically comparable to that of market-seeking motive. Contrary to general perceptions, the impact of natural resources on FDI attractiveness in Africa is not different from market seeking for developed countries’ firms. Our results show that compared to GDP per capita, the effect size of accessing minerals and oil reserves on FDI attractiveness in Africa is positive and significant for global and emerging market firms. Our research shows that there is more likelihood of type I and type II publication selection bias in this research field.

在过去二十年中，尽管基础设施和东道国的政策没有发生重大变化，但非洲的外国直接投资却急剧增加。在非洲投资的动机是什么？这些投资动机与发达市场和新兴市场的公司有何不同？然而，对这些问题进行实证检验的几项研究却没有得出结论。通过从51项研究中提取735个估计值，并应用先进的荟萃分析技术，本研究考察了非洲外国直接投资的动机。我们发现，与市场寻求动机相比，资源寻求和效率寻求对非洲外国直接投资吸引力的影响大小更大（更小）。就效应大小而言，资产寻求动机对FDI的影响与市场寻求动机的影响在统计上具有可比性。与一般看法相反，自然资源对非洲外国直接投资吸引力的影响与发达国家企业寻求市场没有什么不同。我们的研究结果表明，与人均GDP相比，获取矿产和石油储量对非洲外国直接投资吸引力的影响大小对全球和新兴市场公司来说是积极和显著的。我们的研究表明，在这一研究领域，I型和II型出版物选择偏差的可能性更大。

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引用次数: 2

Price Transmission in Conflict-Affected States: Evidence from Cereal Markets of Somalia 受冲突影响国家的价格传导:来自索马里谷物市场的证据

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-06-15 DOI: 10.1093/jae/ejab012

Justin V. Hastings, Sarah G. Phillips, David Ubilava, A. Vasnev

How integrated are agricultural markets in conflict-affected states? We answer this question by examining the dynamics of monthly price series of rice, maize and sorghum across eleven cities (markets) of Somalia. Using conflict as a source of transaction costs between spatially connected markets, we examine its role in price transmission between the markets in a panel smooth transition regression framework. We find that in the case of rice—an imported cereal grain—conflict tends to reduce the speed of price transmission between markets. By contrast, we find no evidence of conflict-related transaction costs in the case of maize and sorghum—commodities that are locally produced, particularly in the central and southern parts of Somalia. In all instances, we find that there is some degree of spatial integration among cereal markets around the country, perhaps partly due to informal institutions that can bridge the divides created by conflict, distance and internal political fragmentation. These findings add crucial detail to the literature concerned with the role of commodity prices on poverty and food security in conflict-affected states.

受冲突影响国家的农业市场一体化程度如何?我们通过研究索马里11个城市(市场)大米、玉米和高粱的月度价格序列动态来回答这个问题。利用冲突作为空间连接市场之间交易成本的来源，我们在面板平滑过渡回归框架中研究了冲突在市场之间价格传导中的作用。我们发现，以大米(一种进口谷物)为例，冲突往往会降低市场之间价格传递的速度。相比之下，我们没有发现与冲突有关的交易成本存在于当地生产的玉米和高粱商品中，特别是在索马里中部和南部地区。在所有情况下，我们发现全国各地的谷物市场之间存在一定程度的空间整合，部分原因可能是可以弥合冲突、距离和内部政治分裂造成的鸿沟的非正式制度。这些发现为有关商品价格对受冲突影响国家的贫困和粮食安全的作用的文献提供了至关重要的细节。

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引用次数: 9

Polarisation and Poverty Reduction in Africa: The Devil Is in the Choice of Equivalence Relation 非洲的两极分化与减贫：魔鬼在对等关系的选择中

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI: 10.1093/JAE/EJAB009

Fraser C. Partridge

The focus of this paper is the low observed mean consumption elasticity of poverty in Africa, and the suggestion that polarisation of national distributions, specifically the non-parametric ‘relative distribution’ method, is essential to understand the low regional elasticity. The version of the methodology adopted results in a measure of absolute polarisation. We show that the results obtained for 24 countries in the region are entirely a product of this choice, and while preference for translation invariance is a normative matter, claims regarding changes in distributions are not. There is no evidence of distributional changes unaccounted for by standard measures of inequality and mean consumption. These variables also explain the evolution of poverty levels in the 24-country sample. Given that changes in mean consumption and inequality account for both the changes in the chosen measure of polarisation and the evolution of poverty, there is no distinct role for the chosen measure of polarisation in accounting for the evolution of poverty in the region.

本文的重点是观察到非洲贫困的低平均消费弹性，并建议国家分布的两极分化，特别是非参数“相对分布”方法，对于理解低区域弹性至关重要。所采用的方法的版本产生了绝对极化的测量。我们表明，该地区24个国家获得的结果完全是这种选择的产物，而对翻译不变性的偏好是一种规范问题，而关于分布变化的主张则不是。没有证据表明，不平等和平均消费的标准衡量方法无法解释分配变化。这些变量也解释了24个国家样本中贫困水平的演变。鉴于平均消费和不平等的变化既可以解释所选择的两极分化衡量标准的变化，也可以解释贫困的演变，因此所选择的两极分化衡量标准在解释该区域贫困的演变方面没有明显的作用。

引用次数: 0

International Child Sponsorship Improves School Performance: Evidence from Goma (DRC) 国际儿童赞助改善学校表现:来自刚果民主共和国戈马的证据

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-05-06 DOI: 10.1093/JAE/EJAB007

D. Rossignoli, Mario A. Maggioni, Sara Balestri, Simona Beretta

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of an International Child Support (ICS) program, implemented in ten primary schools located in the outskirts of Goma (Congo, DR), on school performances. Using original micro data in a sample of 309 children (121 treated and 188 control), we explore whether the ICS program impacts on a broad set of alternative educational outcomes - namely, performance scores in 4 different subjects (plus total score), failure rates and school drop-out rates - through a Difference-in-Differences approach. The results show that sponsored children report lower drop-out rates and failure rates with respect to their control peers and, while lagging behind before the program started, in two school years they catch-up in all subjects. Results are robust to the implementation of Coarsened Exact Matching that exploits the structure of the data to produce unbiased estimates along with bounded ex-post balancing.

本文提供了新的证据，证明在刚果(金)戈马郊区的10所小学实施的国际儿童抚养(ICS)项目对学校绩效的影响。利用309名儿童样本的原始微观数据(121名治疗组和188名对照组)，我们通过差异中的差异方法探讨了ICS计划是否影响了广泛的替代教育成果-即4个不同科目的表现分数(加上总分)，不合格率和辍学率。结果显示，与对照组孩子相比，被资助孩子的辍学率和不及格率较低，虽然在项目开始前落后，但在两个学年里，他们在所有科目上都迎头赶上。结果对粗化精确匹配的实现具有鲁棒性，粗化精确匹配利用数据的结构产生无偏估计以及有界事后平衡。

引用次数: 1

Does Experiencing International Research Collaboration Permanently Affect the Impact of Scientific Production? Evidence from Africa 经历国际研究合作是否会永久影响科学生产?来自非洲的证据

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-05-04 DOI: 10.1093/JAE/EJAB008

Seyed Reza Mirnezami, C. Beaudry

This paper examines the effect of experiencing a research collaboration between African scientists and their international partners on the African scientists’ research impact, measured by scores based on the number of citations and journal impact factor. Using a difference-in-difference regression analysis on publication data of African scientists, the results show that international research collaboration in a given year has a positive and significant effect on research impact, which lasts in the subsequent years. The presence of such permanent effect suggests a sort of ‘permanent learning by international collaboration’. The positive effect of international collaboration on research impact, however, does not necessarily imply that the scientists with only local research collaboration are lesser scientists.

本文考察了非洲科学家与其国际合作伙伴之间的研究合作对非洲科学家研究影响的影响，通过基于引用次数和期刊影响因子的分数来衡量。对非洲科学家的发表数据进行差分回归分析，结果表明，某一年的国际研究合作对研究影响产生了积极而显著的影响，这种影响将持续到随后的几年。这种永久性影响的存在表明了一种“通过国际合作进行永久性学习”。然而，国际合作对研究影响的积极影响并不一定意味着只有地方研究合作的科学家是较差的科学家。

引用次数: 2

Are We Really Painting the Devil on the Walls? Polarization and its Drivers in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Past Two Decades 我们真的在墙上画魔鬼吗?撒哈拉以南非洲过去二十年的两极分化及其驱动因素

IF 1.6 3区经济学 Q2 Social Sciences

Journal of African Economies

Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.1093/JAE/EJAB006

F. Clementi, Michele Fabiani, Vasco Molini, Rocco Zizzamia

The development path of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past two decades has been characterized by sluggish poverty reduction occurring alongside robust economic growth. Applying polarization measures to comparable survey data from 24 SSA countries, we find that there has been a generalizable increase in polarization over the past two decades—and in particular, an increased concentration of households in the lower tail of the welfare distribution of SSA countries. The polarization process is further analyzed by identifying the main drivers and singling out the effect of different covariates at different points in the consumption distribution. This investigation reveals that the drivers of polarization are relatively similar across SSA: demographic, urban/rural, regional variables and access to basic infrastructure are found to be the most important drivers of polarization in many countries.

撒哈拉以南非洲在过去二十年的发展道路上，减贫缓慢，经济增长强劲。将两极分化衡量标准应用于24个SSA国家的可比调查数据，我们发现在过去20年中，两极分化普遍增加，特别是SSA国家福利分配的下尾部家庭越来越集中。通过识别主要驱动因素并挑出消费分布中不同点的不同协变量的影响，进一步分析了极化过程。这项调查表明，SSA的两极分化驱动因素相对相似：人口、城市/农村、区域变量和获得基本基础设施的机会被发现是许多国家两极分化的最重要驱动因素。

引用次数: 2

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