China & World Economy最新文献

With the proliferation of information and communication technology in rural areas, rural e-commerce has gradually become a new economic phenomenon in China. Using the national rural e-commerce comprehensive demonstration policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study examines the causal linkage between rural e-commerce and county-level economic development in China. Its findings, which draw on county-level panel data from 2011 to 2018, indicate that the policy had a positive effect on the county-level economy in China, resulting in an overall increase in county GDP by 3.5 percent (0.7 percent annually). Our analysis further shows that the impact of the policy differed along the region and human capital dimensions. Further analysis reveals that industrial structure and nonagricultural employment were the main channels for the policy to exert a county-level economic impact. Infrastructure improvement in China also plays an important role. The findings emphasize the importance of advancing e-commerce in rural areas to stimulate county-level economic development.

China has many state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and they have accounted for a large proportion of China's GDP over the last four decades. China's rapid growth contradicts literature that focuses on the inefficiency of SOEs. This study shows that, in periods of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), SOEs have performed a special function as “macroeconomic stabilizers.” Using Chinese listed firm data from 2008 to 2019, we investigate five aspects of SOEs' unique functions as macroeconomic stabilizers: employment, investment, growth, financial operation, and expectations. When EPU increased, SOEs had more employment, higher investment expenditure, lower performance volatility, more robust financial structures, and more stable expectations than private firms. We employ the US–China trade war as an exogenous shock on EPU to conduct a difference-in-difference-in-differences approach to mitigate the problem of potentially omitted variables. The findings of this study provide a new perspective to better explain the functions of SOEs in the 21st century.

This paper investigates how international cooperation for patent examination using Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) agreements has affected the quality of firms' exports. Taking the PPH agreements signed between China and the export destinations as a quasi-natural experiment, we established a difference-in-difference-in-differences model. We found that international cooperation for patent examination caused firms to increase export quality to PPH partners in patent-intensive industries to a greater extent. This effect was more profound among PPH partners with stronger intellectual property protection, differentiated products and core products, and agreements along with the Patent Cooperation Treaty. We also found that PPH agreements increased the number of Chinese patent applications filed in PPH partners, patent applications by PPH partners in China, and the level of innovation, all of which constitute the major channels through which export quality to PPH partners increases. Our findings demonstrate that international patent cooperation has played an important role in promoting international trade quality.

This study constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of local government-led construction land supply (LGCLS) strategies on urban innovation. It uses data related to 265 cities in China from 2005 to 2019 for empirical analysis. Its conclusions are as follows. For development stage differences, the impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation exhibited an inverted U shape with economic growth. The inflection point occurred when the per capita GDP equaled approximately RMB23,101 in 2008. For regional differences, the inflection point in eastern China is higher and earlier than that in central and western China; before the inflection point, the positive influence was more obvious in the central and western regions, whereas after the inflection point, the negative influence was more obvious in the eastern region. For the eastern Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations and the northwestern resource-based urban agglomerations with relatively high per capita GDP, the negative impact of LGCLS strategies on urban innovation occurred earlier and showed spatial agglomeration characteristics.

This paper examines the effects of China's accelerated depreciation policy (ADP) on the maturity mismatch between investment and financing. Using panel data for China's A-share nonfinancial listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we found the following. First, ADP significantly aggravated the degree of corporate maturity mismatch, and this result was robust across multiple checks. Second, due to an insufficient long-term loan supply, firms had to finance the fixed investments induced by ADP with short-term debts, leading to maturity mismatches. Third, the positive policy effects were mainly significant for firms with high policy exposure, high-risk preferences, a high degree of information asymmetry, and firms with weak long-term financing capacity. Finally, maturity mismatch exacerbated corporate financial risks. Our research findings indicate that passive maturity mismatch is prevalent among Chinese companies and emphasize the need to address financial repression in order to mitigate the potential financial risks that may arise from tax incentives.

Numerous studies have shown that a sex ratio imbalance (more boys than girls in a society) may result in a sequence of social problems. This study investigated the expected effect of a high sex ratio on educational investment. Using nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies and the 2010 Census, we determined the following: (i) a high sex ratio increased educational expenditure for boys relative to girls; (ii) parents who took education seriously and who cared about their children's education were more likely to invest in education to appear attractive in the future marriage market, and (iii) the profound impact of a high sex ratio on educational expenditure was more pronounced in less educated and poorer families. Our findings raised the possibility that the effect of the sex ratio may bring about more gender inequality in the future. The implicit cost of a high sex ratio may further lead to a vicious cycle of family fertility and childbearing.

To investigate whether industrial robots have improved the ecological environment, this study integrated the adoption of robot technology and pollution abatement into Melitz's heterogeneous firm model. This showed that using robots in production can lower firms' pollution intensity by increasing their abatement investments, and this reduction effect is greater for higher polluting firms and those subject to weaker local environmental regulations. These theoretical expectations were then confirmed through a series of empirical investigations based on Bartik instrument regressions, with multiple robustness checks as well as heterogeneity and mechanism analyses. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between automation technologies and green transformation. It shows that in the pursuit of economic growth and environmental protection, it is necessary for policymakers to shift from pollution control to technical support for traditional manufacturing firms.

The economic impact of the geographical rotation of local officials is important in China's official management system. This study used a zero-inflated Poisson regression model and found that the geographical rotation of local officials significantly increased cross-city mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of enterprises. The impact of local officials' geographical rotation on M&As was more pronounced under certain conditions. These conditions included: (i) when officials were transferred from cities with a higher development level to cities with a lower development level; (ii) when the outflow cities were municipalities directly governed by the central government, provincial capitals, or separately listed cities; (iii) when the transfers of officials occurred within the same province; (iv) when the transfers took place before 2012; and (v) when the transfers happened in the years following significant central government conferences, which provided strong political incentives for M&As.

This study examines how individuals' fertility outcomes were affected by the labor market conditions they experienced at graduation. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey, it finds that poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed individuals' entry into parenthood. Higher unemployment rates at graduation reduced the probability of having at least one child in the survey year for both men and women. The negative fertility effects generally followed a U-shape, reached the maximum around average childbearing ages, and faded out within 15 years after graduation. Low-skilled workers mainly contribute to the negative fertility effects observed in the whole sample. Employment and marital outcomes are also analyzed as potential mechanisms. Estimation results indicate that individuals who experienced poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed marriage and the birth of the first child due to a lower probability of being employed, reduced working hours, and adverse income shocks. The negative long-term fertility effects should be brought to policymakers' attention, especially when China's low fertility issue worsens. Policymakers are expected to create more favorable employment conditions for labor market entrants to encourage fertility and expand the future working-age population.

China is currently in a period of economic transformation and the reform of the factor market still lags behind that of the product market. This study explores the reasons causing China's private enterprise to expand abroad from the perspective of domestic factor market imperfection. Using data for Chinese listed firms between 2002 and 2020, it examines whether outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has been undertaken by private enterprises as a response to domestic factor market imperfection. It finds that private enterprises located in regions with greater factor market imperfection have had a greater tendency to engage in OFDI. This effect has been more pronounced among firms with high productivity or high innovation capability, and among medium and small private enterprises.