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Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi最新文献

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Evaluating Fiscal Performance: A Fixed-Effect Panel Threshold Approach to National and Supranational Rules * 评估财政绩效:国家和超国家规则的固定效应面板阈值方法 *
Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1427426
Oğuzhan Yelkesen, Pelin Varol İyidoğan
Fiscal rules are designed to prevent budget deficits arising from frequent and abrupt changes in countries' fiscal policies. These changes can be attributed to shifts in regional and global economic conditions, as well as short-term decisions made by governments. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased government spending and borrowing, rendering governments more vulnerable. In this context, the implementation of fiscal rules has gained renewed attention. However, to construct a more resilient infrastructure against future crises, it is not only the national fiscal rules that are critical, but also the presence of supranational fiscal rules that can ensure coordination and discipline among countries has become increasingly important. This study, therefore, seeks to analyze the impact of national and supranational fiscal rules on fiscal performance in 31 advanced economies over the period 2000-2020, utilizing the fixed-effect panel threshold model approach. The results indicate that national fiscal rule implementations become effective after a certain threshold level, whereas supranational fiscal rules are effective both below and above a specific debt threshold. This implies that while both types of fiscal rules are effective, supranational rules stand out in terms of their magnitude and their effectiveness even at lower levels of debt. These findings are expected to guide policymakers in evaluating fiscal rule policies and balancing local needs with the achievement of regional objectives.
财政规则旨在防止各国财政政策的频繁和突然变化造成预算赤字。这些变化可归因于区域和全球经济状况的变化以及政府的短期决策。最近,COVID-19 大流行病导致政府支出和借贷增加,使政府更加脆弱。在这种情况下,财政规则的实施再次受到关注。然而,要建设一个更具抵御未来危机能力的基础设施,不仅国家财政规则至关重要,而且能够确保国家间协调和纪律的超国家财政规则的存在也变得越来越重要。因此,本研究试图利用固定效应面板阈值模型方法,分析 2000-2020 年间国家和超国家财政规则对 31 个发达经济体财政表现的影响。结果表明,国家财政规则的实施在达到一定临界值后才会生效,而超国家财政规则在低于和高于特定债务临界值时都会生效。这意味着,虽然两种类型的财政规则都有效,但超国家财政规则在规模和有效性方面更为突出,即使在较低的债务水平下也是如此。这些发现有望指导决策者评估财政规则政策,并在地方需求与实现区域目标之间取得平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Güncel Moda Yaşam Tarzı Boyutlarının Tespit Edilmesi: Ölçek Geliştirme Çalışması 确定当前时尚生活方式的维度:量表开发研究
Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1281626
Hilal Öztay Çağan, S. Öztürk
Moda yaşam tarzı boyutlarının belirlenmesini amaçlayan bu çalışmada, mevcut ölçeklerin uyarlanması için ölçek geliştirme süreci izlenmiş, sonrasında elde edilen moda yaşam tarzı ölçeği (MYTÖ) kullanılarak Türk tüketicilerin moda yaşam tarzını açıklayan boyutlar elde edilmiştir. Bu süreçte nitel ve nicel araştırma yaklaşımları birlikte kullanılarak karma bir çalışma tasarlanmıştır. Nitel verileri toplamak için 11 katılımcı ile derinlemesine görüşmeler gerçekleştirilmiş analiz sürecinde ise tematik analizden yararlanılmıştır. Nicel araştırmada ise anket tekniği ile toplanan veriler istatistiksel analiz yöntemleri ile çözümlenmiştir. 980 kullanılabilir anketten elde edilen veriler nicel araştırmanın materyalini oluşturmaktadır. Yapı geçerliliği test edilerek elde edilmiş moda yaşam tarzı boyutları, moda ilgilenimi, moda öncülüğü, bilgi arayışı, iyi giyinmeye önem verme, prestij, antimoda, ekonomiklik, etik ve toplumsal değerler şeklindedir. Boyutlardan bazıları geçmiş çalışmalarda elde edilen boyutlarla paralellik göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada özgün olarak elde edilen boyutlar ise etik ve toplumsal değerler boyutlarıdır.
本研究旨在确定时尚生活方式的维度,在研究过程中采用了量表开发流程,对现有量表进行了调整,然后通过时尚生活方式量表(FLSS)获得了解释土耳其消费者时尚生活方式的维度。在此过程中,设计了一项混合研究,同时使用定性和定量研究方法。为了收集定性数据,对 11 名参与者进行了深入访谈,并在分析过程中使用了主题分析法。在定量研究中,使用问卷技术收集的数据通过统计分析方法进行了分析。从 980 份可用问卷中获得的数据构成了定量研究的材料。通过建构效度检验得出的时尚生活方式维度包括:时尚兴趣、时尚领导力、信息寻求、重视穿着、声望、antimoda、可负担性、道德和社会价值观。其中一些维度与以往研究中获得的维度是一致的。本研究中获得的独特维度是道德和社会价值观维度。
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引用次数: 0
Financial Decisions and Value-at-Risk: Empirical Evidence from BIST 100 Companies 财务决策与风险价值:来自 BIST 100 公司的经验证据
Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1406660
Serdar Yaman
This study examines the relationship between financial decisions and the value-at-risk (VaR) of companies operating in the Turkish stock market. The study contains semi-annual data of non-financial BIST 100 Index companies spanning from January 2010 to June 2023. Companies’ VaR are calculated using Monte-Carlo simulation, bootstrap, delta-normal, and historical simulation methods and included in separate econometric models as dependent variables. Financial decisions are represented through financial ratios in line with the basic principles of corporate finance and included as explanatory variables in econometric models. The study employs a five-stage panel data methodology. Findings reveal that the impact of financial decisions regarding working capital management, capital structure, dividend pay-out, and growth policies on companies’ VaR differ according to the VaR calculation method. Notably, findings show that financial decisions explain the changes in VaR calculated by Bootstrap method with the highest success rate, aligning with existing finance literature. Prudent financing policies and flexible investment strategies in working capital management, enhanced profitability and financial performance, and sales growth exhibit dampening effects on VaR. Conversely, heightened leverage and long-term borrowings, decisions to pay-out dividends, and growth in foreign investments have increasing effects on VaR. Furthermore, the study identifies the Covid-19 pandemic as exerting a negative influence on VaR.
本研究探讨了土耳其股票市场上公司的财务决策与风险价值(VaR)之间的关系。研究包含非金融 BIST 100 指数公司的半年期数据,时间跨度为 2010 年 1 月至 2023 年 6 月。采用蒙特卡罗模拟、自引导、delta-normal 和历史模拟方法计算公司的风险价值,并将其作为因变量纳入单独的计量经济学模型。财务决策通过符合公司财务基本原则的财务比率来体现,并作为解释变量纳入计量经济学模型。研究采用了五阶段面板数据方法。研究结果表明,有关营运资本管理、资本结构、股利支付和增长政策的财务决策对公司风险价值的影响因风险价值计算方法的不同而不同。值得注意的是,研究结果表明,财务决策对 Bootstrap 方法计算的 VaR 变化的解释成功率最高,这与现有的财务文献相一致。在营运资本管理方面,谨慎的融资政策和灵活的投资策略、盈利能力和财务业绩的提高以及销售额的增长对 VaR 有抑制作用。相反,提高杠杆率和长期借款、派发股息的决策以及海外投资的增长对风险值有增加的影响。此外,研究还发现 Covid-19 大流行对风险价值产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Day-of-the-Week and Month-of-the-Year Effects in the Cryptocurrency Market 加密货币市场的周日效应和年月效应
Pub Date : 2024-03-09 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1387108
İbrahim Korkmaz Kahraman, Dündar Kök
This study examines the day-of-the-week (DoW) and month-of-the-year (MoY) effects in the cryptocurrency market, with a focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Due to the absence of a specific closing time in the cryptocurrency market, the closing time of the daily data is taken as 23:59 UTC. Initially, an appropriate volatility model for the cryptocurrency market is established using the GARCH, EGARCH, and TGARCH models. The most appropriate model for BTC is ARMA(1,0)-EGARCH(1,1) and ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) for ETH. The results of the analysis indicate a leverage effect in the cryptocurrency market, where negative shocks cause a more significant increase in volatility than positive shocks. Based on this volatility structure, the DoW and MoY are analyzed. For BTC, returns on other days are lower compared to Mondays. However, for ETH, returns on Thursdays are lower than those on Mondays. In terms of volatility, both BTC and ETH show that the highest volatility occurs on Mondays. For the MoY effect, neither BTC nor ETH don’t exhibit a significant effect in the mean equation. Nevertheless, the variance equation indicates that January has higher volatility compared to other months, indicating the presence of a MoY effect in terms of volatility.
本研究探讨了加密货币市场的周日效应(DoW)和年月效应(MoY),重点关注比特币(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)。由于加密货币市场没有特定的收盘时间,每日数据的收盘时间取为 23:59 UTC。首先,使用 GARCH、EGARCH 和 TGARCH 模型为加密货币市场建立合适的波动率模型。最适合 BTC 的模型是 ARMA(1,0)-EGARCH(1,1),最适合 ETH 的模型是 ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1)。分析结果表明,加密货币市场存在杠杆效应,负向冲击比正向冲击导致的波动性增加更为显著。基于这种波动性结构,对 DoW 和 MoY 进行了分析。就 BTC 而言,其他日期的回报率低于周一。然而,就 ETH 而言,周四的回报率低于周一。在波动率方面,BTC 和 ETH 都显示周一的波动率最高。就月份效应而言,在均值方程中,BTC 和 ETH 都没有表现出显著的效应。然而,方差方程显示,与其他月份相比,1 月份的波动率更高,这表明在波动率方面存在月份效应。
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引用次数: 0
Extending Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to Investigate the Factors Affecting the Behavioral Intention of Internet Banking in Turkey 扩展技术接受模型(TAM),研究影响土耳其网上银行行为意向的因素
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1218925
Görkem Erdoğan
The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the behavioral intention of internet banking (I-BNKNG) in Turkey. In this study, users' adoption of I-BNKNG will be examined with Technology Acceptance Model and newly added variables. The data obtained from 441 I-BNKNG users by the survey method are analyzed with the structural equation model. According to the results of the study, perceived credibility, self-efficacy and compatibility affect perceived ease of use (PEA) and perceived usefulness (PUS). In addition, the study reveals both the relationship between PEA and PUS and the result that PEA and PUS impacts satisfaction. Finally, PEA, PUS and satisfaction are the main determinants of behavioral intention in I-BNKNG.
本研究旨在调查影响土耳其网上银行(I-BNKNG)行为意向的因素。在本研究中,将利用技术接受模型和新增加的变量对用户采用 I-BNKNG 的情况进行研究。通过调查方法从 441 名 I-BNKNG 用户中获得的数据将利用结构方程模型进行分析。研究结果表明,感知可信度、自我效能感和兼容性会影响感知易用性(PEA)和感知有用性(PUS)。此外,研究还揭示了 PEA 和 PUS 之间的关系,以及 PEA 和 PUS 影响满意度的结果。最后,PEA、PUS 和满意度是 I-BNKNG 行为意向的主要决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
Yöneticilerde ve Çalışanlarda Erteleme Eğilimi Farklı mı? Sağlık Sektöründe Bir Araştırma 管理人员和员工的拖延倾向是否不同?卫生部门的一项研究
Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1281593
E. Arslan, Süleyman Mertoğlu
Bu çalışma, yöneticilerde ve çalışanlarda erteleme eğiliminin farklı olup olmadığını saptamayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu temel amaç dışında, çeşitli kişisel özelliklere göre erteleme eğiliminin farklılaşıp farklılaşmadığını ortaya koymak da amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaçla, İzmir İl Sağlık Müdürlüğü’ne bağlı olarak çalışan 350 yönetici ve 555 çalışan olmak üzere toplam 905 kişiden veri toplanmış ve veriler analiz edilmiştir. Verilerin analizinde frekans, açıklayıcı ve doğrulayıcı faktör analizi, bağımsız tek örneklem t testi ve tek yönlü varyans analizlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, erteleme eğiliminin genel olarak düşük düzeyde olduğu, bununla birlikte yöneticiler ve çalışanların erteleme eğiliminin farklı olduğu saptanmıştır. Yönetici olmayan çalışanların erteleme eğilimi daha yüksektir. Yöneticiler arasında ise alt düzey yöneticilerde erteleme eğilimi daha yüksektir. Erteleme eğilimi yaş, medeni durum, çocuk sahibi olup olmama, meslek ve meslekte çalışma süresine göre farklılaşmakta iken cinsiyete göre farklılaşmamaktadır.
本研究旨在确定管理人员和雇员的拖延倾向是否有所不同。除这一主要目标外,本研究还旨在确定拖延倾向是否因各种个人特征而异。为此,研究人员收集并分析了伊兹密尔省卫生局下属 350 名管理人员和 555 名员工共 905 人的数据。数据分析采用了频率、解释性和确认性因素分析、独立单样本 t 检验和单向方差分析。分析结果表明,拖延倾向总体上处于较低水平,但管理人员和员工的拖延倾向有所不同。非管理人员员工的拖延倾向较高。在管理人员中,低级别管理人员的拖延倾向较高。拖延倾向因年龄、婚姻状况、有无子女、职业和从业时间而异,但与性别无关。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric Effect of Income on the Healthcare Expenditure in Türkiye 收入对土耳其医疗保健支出的不对称影响
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1376173
Muhammed Benli
This paper examines the dynamics between income and health spending in Türkiye from 1988 to 2020, employing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) methodologies. One of the key findings of this study is the presence of an asymmetric relationship between variations in income and overall healthcare expenditure. This means that changes in income levels do not have uniform effects on health expenditure, and the direction of these effects depends on whether income is rising or falling. Interestingly, the research reveals that both increases and decreases in income lead to a rise in total health expenditure. However, the impact of income declines on health expenditure is more pronounced. In other words, when people experience a decrease in income, they tend to allocate a larger portion of their reduced resources to health-related expenses. This highlights the significant financial strain that income reductions can place on individuals and households when it comes to healthcare costs. This pattern of asymmetric effects also extends to government or compulsory health expenditures. When income falls, the government's role in funding health expenses becomes more prominent, as individuals rely more on public healthcare services during economic downturns. Furthermore, the study sheds light on the intriguing relationship between income shifts and voluntary or out-of-pocket health expenses. Positive income shifts are found to be associated with a reduction in voluntary health expenditure. This suggests that as people experience an improvement in their financial situation, they may opt for less costly or more efficient healthcare services, leading to a decrease in out-of-pocket expenses. Conversely, when income levels decrease, individuals may find themselves with limited options, potentially resorting to more expensive private healthcare services or bearing a greater burden of out-of-pocket expenses. This finding underscores the financial vulnerability that can accompany negative income shifts.
本文采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)方法,研究了 1988 年至 2020 年土耳其收入与医疗支出之间的动态关系。本研究的主要发现之一是收入变化与总体医疗支出之间存在非对称关系。这意味着收入水平的变化对医疗支出的影响并不一致,而且这些影响的方向取决于收入是上升还是下降。有趣的是,研究显示,收入的增加和减少都会导致总医疗支出的增加。然而,收入下降对医疗支出的影响更为明显。换句话说,当人们的收入减少时,他们倾向于将减少的资源中更大的一部分用于与健康相关的支出。这凸显了收入减少会给个人和家庭在医疗费用方面带来巨大的经济压力。这种非对称效应模式也延伸到政府或强制性医疗支出。当收入减少时,政府在医疗支出中的作用会变得更加突出,因为在经济衰退时期,个人会更加依赖公共医疗服务。此外,研究还揭示了收入变化与自愿或自付医疗费用之间的有趣关系。研究发现,积极的收入变化与自愿医疗支出的减少有关。这表明,当人们的经济状况改善时,他们可能会选择成本更低或效率更高的医疗服务,从而导致自付费用的减少。相反,当收入水平下降时,个人可能会发现自己的选择有限,可能会求助于更昂贵的私人医疗服务或承担更多的自付费用负担。这一发现凸显了收入负增长可能带来的财务脆弱性。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship Between High-Income Countries in Middle East and North Africa on Energy Consumption and Increase in Gross Domestic Product 中东和北非高收入国家能源消耗与国内生产总值增长之间的关系
Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1282615
Mehmet Ataş, Idris Sarisoy, Fikriye Ceren Bostancı
Electricity, which emerged as a secondary energy source, has been one of the important input items in production since its widespread use. In this study, it is analyzed in 7 countries (Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Israel, Qatar, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia) in the high-income Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries group. Using data on public and commercial services, residential, industrial, total other sectors (agriculture, transportation), total electricity consumed and GDP for the period 1990-2021, the relationship between sectoral electricity consumption and economic growth is analyzed with the Panel Granger causality test. As a result of the analysis, while there is no long-run relationship between public and commercial services, residential, total other sectors (agriculture, transportation) and total electricity consumed and growth, there is no causality relationship between these variables, while there is a unidirectional causality relationship from growth to electricity consumption in industry. Contrary to previous studies, the reason for the absence of a causality relationship from electricity consumption to GDP growth in this study is that export revenues from natural resources and high-tech products make a significant contribution to the GDP formation of the countries included in the analysis. These results show that, contrary to the same directional relationship between electricity consumption and GDP growth in the literature, it is not valid for natural resource and high technology exporter countries. We can say that the results of the study make an important contribution to the literature in this respect.
作为二次能源出现的电力,自广泛使用以来一直是重要的生产投入项目之一。本研究对中东和北非(MENA)高收入国家组中的 7 个国家(巴林、阿拉伯联合酋长国、以色列、卡塔尔、科威特、阿曼和沙特阿拉伯)进行了分析。利用 1990-2021 年期间公共和商业服务、住宅、工业、其他部门(农业、运输)、总耗电量和国内生产总值的数据,通过面板格兰杰因果检验分析了部门耗电量与经济增长之间的关系。分析结果表明,虽然公共和商业服务、居民、其他部门(农业、运输)和总用电量与经济增长之间不存在长期关系,这些变量之间也不存在因果关系,但经济增长与工业用电量之间存在单向因果关系。与以往的研究相反,本研究中用电量与 GDP 增长之间没有因果关系的原因是,自然资源和高科技产品的出口收入对分析对象国的 GDP 形成做出了重大贡献。这些结果表明,与文献中相同的电力消费与 GDP 增长之间的定向关系相反,这种关系在自然资源和高科技出口国并不成立。可以说,研究结果为这方面的文献做出了重要贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis in Major European Stock Exchanges 欧洲主要证券交易所的异质市场假说
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1220275
Aykut Karakaya, Melih Kutlu
The aim of this study is to investigate heterogeneous market efficiency in European stock exchanges using Augmented HAR-RV model. According to the heterogeneous market efficiency hypothesis, investors create portfolios according to different time horizons and different market situations may arise in the reflection of information on price. We find evidence of the validity of the heterogeneous market efficiency model in European stock exchanges. Investors interpret information differently at different time horizons. Medium- and long-term investment decisions are a major influence. These results help explain the volatility that may occur in different time horizons. Portfolio diversification should also be made according to different investments in different horizons. Short-term global volatility shock has been effective on European stock markets.
本研究旨在利用增强型 HAR-RV 模型研究欧洲证券交易所的异质市场效率。根据异质市场效率假说,投资者根据不同的时间跨度创建投资组合,在反映价格信息时可能会出现不同的市场情况。我们在欧洲证券交易所发现了异质市场效率模型有效性的证据。投资者在不同的时间跨度上对信息的解读不同。中长期投资决策是主要影响因素。这些结果有助于解释不同时间跨度下可能出现的波动。投资组合多样化也应根据不同时间跨度的不同投资进行。短期全球波动冲击对欧洲股市有效。
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引用次数: 0
Psikososyal ve Manevi Sorunların Çözümünde Okul Sosyal Hizmetinin Gerekliliği 学校社会工作在解决社会心理和精神问题方面的必要性
Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.30798/makuiibf.1097910
Sema Sağlık
Bu araştırmanın amacı, yönetici, öğretmen ve rehber öğretmenlerin görüşlerine göre lise öğrencilerinin okul ortamlarında yaşadığı psikososyal ve manevi sorunlarını belirlemek ve bu sorunların giderilmesinde okul sosyal hizmetinin gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktır. Araştırma nitel araştırma çerçevesinde toplam 30 yönetici, öğretmen ve rehber öğretmenden oluşmuştur. Araştırmada lise öğrencilerinin okul yaşamını etkileyen aile, toplum, okul sistemi, okul çevresi ve eğitim sistemi kaynaklı; teknoloji bağımlılığı, madde kullanımı, şiddet, devamsızlık, parçalanmış aile, maddi ve manevi sıkıntılar, çocuk işçiliği, ihmal ve istismar, yetersiz rehberlik hizmetleri gibi birçok sorun tespit edilmiştir. Rehber öğretmenlerin çoğu suça sürüklenmiş çocuk, bağımlılık, ihmal ve istismar, şiddet ve çocuk yaşta gebelik gibi özel konuları müdahale edemediği sorunları olarak saymaktadır. Tüm katılımcılar sorunların öğrencide bıraktığı psikososyal ve manevi bütünlüğü üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerini vurgulayarak, sosyal hizmet stratejileri ile çözüm bulunabileceğine işaret etmektedir. Araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçlar, sorunların çözümü için okullarda ekolojik perspektifi dikkate alan okul sosyal hizmet uzmanlarının istihdam edilmesi ve okul sosyal hizmeti uygulamasına geçilmesi gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır
本研究旨在根据管理人员、教师和辅导员的观点,确定高中生在学校环境中遇到的社会心理和精神问题,并揭示学校社会工作在消除这些问题方面的必要性。在定性研究框架内,共有 30 名行政人员、教师和辅导员参与了研究。在研究中,发现了许多问题,如技术成瘾、药物滥用、暴力、旷课、家庭支离破碎、经济和道德问题、童工、忽视和虐待、指导服务不足等,这些问题是由家庭、社会、学校制度、学校环境和教育制度造成的,影响了高中生的学校生活。大多数辅导员将儿童陷入犯罪、吸毒、忽视和虐待、暴力和儿童怀孕等特殊问题列为他们无法干预的问题。所有参与者都强调了这些问题对学生社会心理和精神完整性的负面影响,并指出可以通过社会服务战略找到解决方案。研究结果表明,为了解决这些问题,有必要聘用考虑到生态学观点的学校社会工作者,并在学校开展学校社会工作。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
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