We analyze the development and performance of the British equity market during the era when it reigned supreme as the largest in the world. Using an extensive monthly dataset of thousands of companies, we identify the major peaks and troughs in the market and find a relationship with the timing of economic cycles. We also show that the equity risk premium was modest and, contrary to previous research, domestic and foreign stocks earned similar returns for much of the period. We also document the early dominance of the transport and finance sectors and the subsequent emergence of many new industries.
{"title":"Before the cult of equity: the British stock market, 1829–1929","authors":"G. Campbell, J. Turner, R. Grossman","doi":"10.1093/EREH/HEAB003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EREH/HEAB003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We analyze the development and performance of the British equity market during the era when it reigned supreme as the largest in the world. Using an extensive monthly dataset of thousands of companies, we identify the major peaks and troughs in the market and find a relationship with the timing of economic cycles. We also show that the equity risk premium was modest and, contrary to previous research, domestic and foreign stocks earned similar returns for much of the period. We also document the early dominance of the transport and finance sectors and the subsequent emergence of many new industries.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/EREH/HEAB003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43055890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We re-examine the long-run geographical development of US manufacturing industries using recent advances in spatial concentration measures. We construct spatially weighted indices of the geographical concentration between 1880 and 2007 taking into account industrial structure and checkerboard problem. New results emerge. Average spatial concentration was much lower in the late 20th than in the late 19th century, and it was the outcome of a continuing reduction over time. Spatial concentration did not increase in the early 20th century but declined, and we find no inverted-U shape pattern of long-run spatial concentration. The persistent tendency to greater spatial dispersion was characteristic of most industries.
{"title":"Spatial concentration of manufacturing industries in the United States: re-examination of long-run trends","authors":"N. Crafts, A. Klein","doi":"10.1093/EREH/HEAA027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EREH/HEAA027","url":null,"abstract":"We re-examine the long-run geographical development of US manufacturing industries using recent advances in spatial concentration measures. We construct spatially weighted indices of the geographical concentration between 1880 and 2007 taking into account industrial structure and checkerboard problem. New results emerge. Average spatial concentration was much lower in the late 20th than in the late 19th century, and it was the outcome of a continuing reduction over time. Spatial concentration did not increase in the early 20th century but declined, and we find no inverted-U shape pattern of long-run spatial concentration. The persistent tendency to greater spatial dispersion was characteristic of most industries.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/EREH/HEAA027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43747784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Most research on inequality in pre-industrial economies has focused on either wealth or income, generating not readily comparable results. In this paper, we use a unique data set of Spain circa 1750 including information on (among other things) wealth and income for the same sample of households. Our findings provide methodological insights showing that a household’s position in the income distribution is strongly correlated with its position in the wealth distribution but is also influenced by several other household specific characteristics like human capital of the head of the household and the economic sector of her/his main occupation.
{"title":"Comparing income and wealth inequality in pre-industrial economies: the case of Castile (Spain) in the eighteenth century","authors":"Esteban Nicolini, Fernando Ramos-Palencia","doi":"10.1093/EREH/HEAA026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EREH/HEAA026","url":null,"abstract":"Most research on inequality in pre-industrial economies has focused on either wealth or income, generating not readily comparable results. In this paper, we use a unique data set of Spain circa 1750 including information on (among other things) wealth and income for the same sample of households. Our findings provide methodological insights showing that a household’s position in the income distribution is strongly correlated with its position in the wealth distribution but is also influenced by several other household specific characteristics like human capital of the head of the household and the economic sector of her/his main occupation.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/EREH/HEAA026","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46264317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this article is to analyse the effects on Spain as a neutral country of the monetary measures adopted by the largest allied nations during the First World War. We will focus on the intervention of exchange rates and on the measures aimed at limiting gold outflows from belligerent countries. The distortions derived from these policies gave rise, in some cases, to additional profits for Spanish exporters and intermediaries, while in others prevented the effective transformation of some benefits from war into valuable assets and pushed them to be dragged down by the economic disturbances of the post-war period.
{"title":"A hidden fight behind neutrality. Spain’s struggle on exchange rates and gold during the Great War","authors":"Carles Sudrià","doi":"10.1093/ereh/heaa024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heaa024","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The aim of this article is to analyse the effects on Spain as a neutral country of the monetary measures adopted by the largest allied nations during the First World War. We will focus on the intervention of exchange rates and on the measures aimed at limiting gold outflows from belligerent countries. The distortions derived from these policies gave rise, in some cases, to additional profits for Spanish exporters and intermediaries, while in others prevented the effective transformation of some benefits from war into valuable assets and pushed them to be dragged down by the economic disturbances of the post-war period.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/ereh/heaa024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49245555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the relationship between the spread of bank offices, banking sector concentration, and economic growth in English and Welsh counties in the four decades before WW1. During this period, banks rapidly expanded their branch networks, while banking sector concentration increased. Findings from both panel fixed effects and instrumental variable regressions suggest that an increase in the number of bank offices in English and Welsh counties had a positive impact on local economic growth. There is no evidence of banking sector concentration being negatively associated with local economic performance prior to WW1.
{"title":"Bank branching, concentration, and local economic growth in pre-WW1 England and Wales","authors":"W. Jansson","doi":"10.1093/erehj/heaa025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erehj/heaa025","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper explores the relationship between the spread of bank offices, banking sector concentration, and economic growth in English and Welsh counties in the four decades before WW1. During this period, banks rapidly expanded their branch networks, while banking sector concentration increased. Findings from both panel fixed effects and instrumental variable regressions suggest that an increase in the number of bank offices in English and Welsh counties had a positive impact on local economic growth. There is no evidence of banking sector concentration being negatively associated with local economic performance prior to WW1.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/erehj/heaa025","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42103923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Max Breitenlechner, Daniel Gründler, Gabriel P. Mathy, Johann Scharler
At the peak of the Great Depression in mid-1931, Germany experienced a severe banking crisis. We study to what extent credit constraints contributed to the downturn by fitting a structural vector autoregressive model with data from January 1925 to September 1935. Adverse credit supply shocks contributed strongly to the downturn especially at the time of the 1931 banking crisis. Before that, credit supply shocks had also contributed to the expansion phase preceding the depression. We also find that aggregate demand and U.S. business cycle shocks were the primary drivers of the German Great Depression.
{"title":"Credit supply shocks and the Great Depression in Germany","authors":"Max Breitenlechner, Daniel Gründler, Gabriel P. Mathy, Johann Scharler","doi":"10.1093/erehj/heaa023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erehj/heaa023","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 At the peak of the Great Depression in mid-1931, Germany experienced a severe banking crisis. We study to what extent credit constraints contributed to the downturn by fitting a structural vector autoregressive model with data from January 1925 to September 1935. Adverse credit supply shocks contributed strongly to the downturn especially at the time of the 1931 banking crisis. Before that, credit supply shocks had also contributed to the expansion phase preceding the depression. We also find that aggregate demand and U.S. business cycle shocks were the primary drivers of the German Great Depression.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/erehj/heaa023","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42922981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The pervasive diffusion of electricity-related technologies at the beginning of the twentieth century has been studied extensively to understand the transformative potential of general purpose technologies (GPTs). Most of what we know, however, has been investigated in relation to the diffusion of their use. This article provides evidence on the county-level economic impact of the technological adoption of electrical and electronic (E&E) technologies in the 1920s in the United States (US). It focuses on measuring the impact of a GPT on technological adopters, i.e., those who are able to develop, transform, and complement it. It is shown that places with patenting activity in E&E technologies grew faster and paid higher wages than others between 1920 and 1930. This analysis required constructing a novel database identifying detailed geographical information for historical patent documents in the US since 1836, as well as developing a text-mining algorithm to identify E&E patents based on patent descriptions.
{"title":"GPTs and growth: evidence on the technological adoption of electrical and electronic technologies in the 1920s","authors":"S. Petralia","doi":"10.1093/erehj/heaa022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erehj/heaa022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The pervasive diffusion of electricity-related technologies at the beginning of the twentieth century has been studied extensively to understand the transformative potential of general purpose technologies (GPTs). Most of what we know, however, has been investigated in relation to the diffusion of their use. This article provides evidence on the county-level economic impact of the technological adoption of electrical and electronic (E&E) technologies in the 1920s in the United States (US). It focuses on measuring the impact of a GPT on technological adopters, i.e., those who are able to develop, transform, and complement it. It is shown that places with patenting activity in E&E technologies grew faster and paid higher wages than others between 1920 and 1930. This analysis required constructing a novel database identifying detailed geographical information for historical patent documents in the US since 1836, as well as developing a text-mining algorithm to identify E&E patents based on patent descriptions.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/erehj/heaa022","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46142444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article looks at the most recent data to define when the Little and Great Divergence occurred. It sorts the deep determinants of economic development into three categories (biogeography, culture-institutions, and contingency-conjuncture) to provides a comprehensive review of these factors in the context of the Great Divergence, and it discusses the concepts of persistence and reversal of fortune. The paper concludes that the Great Divergence was never an inevitability but became an increasingly likely prospect as time progressed. Furthermore, biogeography, culture-institutions, and contingency-conjuncture are not contradictory hypotheses. Rather, there is a clear pattern of change over time of the relative importance of these three categories of determinants. Further research is needed to uncover the underlying causal link or latent variable that could explain the successive relative importance over time of biogeographical, cultural–institutional, and contingent–conjunctural determinants of the Great Divergence.
{"title":"A reassessment of the Great Divergence debate: towards a reconciliation of apparently distinct determinants","authors":"Victor Court","doi":"10.1093/ereh/hez015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hez015","url":null,"abstract":"This article looks at the most recent data to define when the Little and Great Divergence occurred. It sorts the deep determinants of economic development into three categories (biogeography, culture-institutions, and contingency-conjuncture) to provides a comprehensive review of these factors in the context of the Great Divergence, and it discusses the concepts of persistence and reversal of fortune. The paper concludes that the Great Divergence was never an inevitability but became an increasingly likely prospect as time progressed. Furthermore, biogeography, culture-institutions, and contingency-conjuncture are not contradictory hypotheses. Rather, there is a clear pattern of change over time of the relative importance of these three categories of determinants. Further research is needed to uncover the underlying causal link or latent variable that could explain the successive relative importance over time of biogeographical, cultural–institutional, and contingent–conjunctural determinants of the Great Divergence.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/ereh/hez015","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45146535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A new dataset of weekly wheat prices during the 1898–1914 is generated. Using variance decompositions from vector autoregressive models, a network of nine wheat markets during the sample period is constructed and information spillovers between these markets are analyzed. Our results indicate that trade costs are a significant determinant of the relative importance of information transmission in the continental European wheat trade.
{"title":"Networks and trade costs in commodity markets during the late nineteenth century: a new dataset and evidence","authors":"A. Pütz, P. Siklos, Christoph Sulewski","doi":"10.1093/EREH/HEZ021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/EREH/HEZ021","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A new dataset of weekly wheat prices during the 1898–1914 is generated. Using variance decompositions from vector autoregressive models, a network of nine wheat markets during the sample period is constructed and information spillovers between these markets are analyzed. Our results indicate that trade costs are a significant determinant of the relative importance of information transmission in the continental European wheat trade.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":"2020 1","pages":"675-695"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/EREH/HEZ021","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42130534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Baltic trade is one of the key examples of flourishing economic activity in early modern European history. This study empirically outlines the role of comparative resource advantages between 1750 and 1856, using trade data from the Sound Toll Registers Online. On the one hand, the results show the significance of relative land abundance for trade patterns between the Baltic Sea region and North-Western Europe: the land abundant Baltic Sea region was overall exporting more land-intensive commodities. On the other hand, however, the results also show a seeming paradox: increasing trade openness during the nineteenth century was not associated with a higher degree of specialization along these comparative advantages.
{"title":"Factor endowments and international trade: a study of land embodied in trade on the Baltic Sea region, 1750–1856","authors":"D. Theodoridis, K. Rönnbäck, Werner Scheltjens","doi":"10.1093/ereh/hez019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hez019","url":null,"abstract":"Baltic trade is one of the key examples of flourishing economic activity in early modern European history. This study empirically outlines the role of comparative resource advantages between 1750 and 1856, using trade data from the Sound Toll Registers Online. On the one hand, the results show the significance of relative land abundance for trade patterns between the Baltic Sea region and North-Western Europe: the land abundant Baltic Sea region was overall exporting more land-intensive commodities. On the other hand, however, the results also show a seeming paradox: increasing trade openness during the nineteenth century was not associated with a higher degree of specialization along these comparative advantages.","PeriodicalId":51703,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Economic History","volume":"24 1","pages":"716-735"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/ereh/hez019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48799113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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