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Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy 流行病与地区经济增长:来自意大利大流感的证据
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.1093/EREHJ/HEAB009
Mario F. Carillo, T. Jappelli
We investigate the link between the 1918 Great Influenza and regional economic growth in Italy, a country in which the measures implemented by public authorities to contain the contagion were limited or ineffective. The pandemic caused 600,000 deaths in Italy: 1.2% of the population. Going from regions with the lowest mortality to those with the highest mortality is associated to a decline in per capita GDP growth of 6.5%, which dissipated within 3 years. Our estimates provide an upper bound of the adverse effect of pandemics on regional economic growth in the absence of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions.
我们调查了1918年大流感与意大利地区经济增长之间的联系,在意大利,公共当局为遏制疫情蔓延而采取的措施有限或无效。疫情在意大利造成60万人死亡,占总人口的1.2%。从死亡率最低的地区到死亡率最高的地区,人均GDP增长率下降6.5%,这一下降在3年内消失。我们的估计提供了在没有非药物公共卫生干预的情况下,流行病对区域经济增长不利影响的上限。
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引用次数: 12
Intergenerational mobility of sons and daughters: evidence from nineteenth-century West Flanders 儿子和女儿的代际流动:来自19世纪西佛兰德斯的证据
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-02 DOI: 10.1093/EREHJ/HEAA028
Vincent Delabastita, E. Buyst
Research on the intergenerational inheritance of occupational attainment has been restricted to sons for a long time. This is remarkable, given the ubiquity of historical settings where female labor force participation was high. This study of civil marriage certificates in nineteenth-century West Flanders investigates a comprehensive sample covering the economic activities not only of fathers and sons but also of mothers and daughters. We find that daughters were more mobile than sons. Daughters, however, enjoyed less growth in terms of intergenerational mobility against the background of a slowly industrializing economy.
长期以来,关于职业成就代际传承的研究仅限于儿子。考虑到女性劳动力参与率高的历史背景,这一点非常显著。这项关于19世纪西佛兰德斯民事婚姻证书的研究调查了一个全面的样本,不仅涵盖了父亲和儿子的经济活动,还涵盖了母亲和女儿的经济活动。我们发现女儿比儿子更容易移动。然而,在经济缓慢工业化的背景下,女儿在代际流动方面的增长较少。
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引用次数: 1
Cartelization and firm performance in Upper Silesia 1880–1913 1880-1913年上西里西亚的卡特尔化与企业绩效
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-22 DOI: 10.1093/ereh/heab006
C. Beyer
In this article the effects of cartelization on firms’ efficiency are investigated using the example of an early twentieth century coal-mining cartel in Upper Silesia: the Upper Silesian Coal Convention. Established in 1898, the cartel comprised various types of private, as well as state-owned, mining enterprises. Using a microeconomic dataset based on firm-level data of the Upper Silesian mines, I focus on the cartel’s effect on efficiency. The cartel did not significantly reduce technical efficiency among mines. This finding confirms previous research on cartels’ effects on efficiency.
本文以20世纪初上西里西亚的煤矿卡特尔为例,研究了卡特尔化对企业效率的影响:上西里西亚煤炭公约。该卡特尔成立于1898年,由各种类型的私营和国有矿业企业组成。使用基于上西里西亚矿区企业层面数据的微观经济数据集,我关注卡特尔对效率的影响。卡特尔并没有显著降低矿山之间的技术效率。这一发现证实了之前关于卡特尔对效率影响的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Living costs and welfare ratios in Western Europe: new estimates using a linear programming model 西欧的生活成本和福利比率:使用线性规划模型的新估计
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-22 DOI: 10.1093/ereh/heab007
L. Zegarra
This study provides new estimates on welfare ratios for London, Amsterdam, Paris, Strasbourg, Munich, and Leipzig for 1600–1850. I use a linear programming model to compute the basket that minimizes the food cost subject to nutrient requirements. For a balanced nutrition, I take into consideration that people should ingest not only calories and proteins, but also fat, iron, and some basic vitamins. The results suggest that living standards in Western Europe were lower than previously thought. However, like previous studies, this article suggests that welfare ratios in London were higher than in other European cities.
这项研究对1600-1850年间伦敦、阿姆斯特丹、巴黎、斯特拉斯堡、慕尼黑和莱比锡的福利比率提供了新的估计。我使用线性规划模型来计算根据营养需求将食物成本最小化的篮子。为了均衡营养,我考虑到人们不仅应该摄入卡路里和蛋白质,还应该摄入脂肪、铁和一些基本维生素。研究结果表明,西欧的生活水平比之前认为的要低。然而,与之前的研究一样,这篇文章表明,伦敦的福利比率高于其他欧洲城市。
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引用次数: 6
Asientos as sinews of war in the composite superpower of the 16th century 阿西恩托斯是16世纪复合超级大国的战争力量
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-04-08 DOI: 10.1093/EREH/HEAA029
Carlos Álvarez‐Nogal, Christophe Chamley
The full analysis of the text of a contract, asiento, between Philip II of Spain and a Genoese merchant–banker details how in this pre-modern composite state, merchant–bankers acted as agents of the Crown who gathered many scattered sources of income to the Crown and transformed them into large and regular cash flows, mesadas, for the army. Because of the uncertain availability of these sources, the contract provided flexibility to both parties and legal assistance to the banker who reported to accountants for audit and, if necessary, the charge of an interest at about 1 percent per month.
对西班牙菲利普二世和一位热那亚商人-银行家之间的合同文本asiento的全面分析详细说明了在这个前现代复合国家,商人-银行家是如何充当王室的代理人的,他们为王室收集了许多分散的收入来源,并将其转化为军队的大额定期现金流mesadas。由于这些来源的不确定性,该合同为双方提供了灵活性,并为向会计师报告审计的银行家提供了法律援助,如有必要,还收取每月约1%的利息。
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引用次数: 0
Britain’s Empire Marketing Board and the failure of soft trade policy, 1926–33 英国帝国营销委员会与软贸易政策的失败,1926–33
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-31 DOI: 10.1093/EREH/HEAB005
D. Higgins, Brian D. Varian
Before 1932, Britain’s essentially free-trade policy left barely any scope for reciprocating the preferential tariffs that the Dominions applied to Britain’s exports. Thus, Britain attempted to reciprocate by means of a “soft” trade policy aimed at increasing Britain’s imports from the empire through wide-reaching publicity coordinated by the Empire Marketing Board (EMB). This article, the first econometric assessment of the EMB, argues that there was not a differential increase in the volume of those imports advertised by the EMB. Principal arguments for this failure are that British consumers were frequently unaware of the geographic origin of many commodities and that they tended to identify company brand more than country of origin.
1932年之前,英国基本上的自由贸易政策几乎没有任何余地来抵消自治领对英国出口产品征收的优惠关税。因此,英国试图通过“软”贸易政策来回报,该政策旨在通过帝国营销委员会(EMB)协调的广泛宣传来增加英国从帝国的进口。这篇文章是对EMB的第一次经济计量评估,认为EMB宣传的进口量没有差异增长。这种失败的主要原因是,英国消费者经常不知道许多商品的地理来源,他们倾向于识别公司品牌而不是原产国。
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引用次数: 3
Structural change in the job matching process in the United States, 1923–1932 1923–1932年美国就业匹配过程的结构变化
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-16 DOI: 10.1093/EREH/HEAB004
Woong Lee, Yeo Joon Yoon
This paper explores the structural change in the job matching process in the United States from 1923 to 1932. Bai–Perron test is employed with data from public employment offices. The result shows that there are two structural changes, July 1928 and August 1930. The first breakpoint corresponds to approximately a year before the stock market crash, implying that there was a sign of downturn in the labor market when the economy was still in a period of expansion. The second break point is related to the Great Contraction when the entire economy was going in a downward spiral.
本文探讨了1923年至1932年美国就业匹配过程中的结构性变化。Bai–Perron测试采用了公共就业办公室的数据。结果表明,我国经济结构发生了两次变化,分别是1928年7月和1930年8月。第一个断点对应于股市崩盘前大约一年,这意味着当经济仍处于扩张期时,劳动力市场出现了低迷的迹象。第二个转折点与大收缩有关,当时整个经济都在螺旋式下降。
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引用次数: 3
Quantifying the mortality impact of the 1935 old-age assistance 量化1935年养老援助对死亡率的影响
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-02 DOI: 10.1093/EREH/HEAB001
G. Galofré-Vilà, M. Mckee, D. Stuckler
In 1935, the United States introduced the old-age assistance (OAA) program, a means-tested program to help the elderly poor. The OAA improved retirement conditions and aimed to enable older persons to live independently. We use the transition from early elderly plans to OAA and the large differences in payments and eligibility across states to show that OAA reduced mortality by between 30 and 39 percent among those older than 65 years. This finding, based on an event study design, is robust to a range of specifications, a range of fixed effects, placebo tests, and a border-pair policy discontinuity design using county-level data. The largest mortality reductions came from drops in communicable and infectious diseases, such as influenza and nephritis, and mostly affected white citizens.
1935年,美国推出了老年援助计划,这是一项经过经济状况调查的计划,旨在帮助贫困老年人。老龄津贴改善了退休条件,旨在使老年人能够独立生活。我们利用从早期老年人计划到高龄津贴的过渡,以及各州在支付和资格方面的巨大差异,表明高龄津贴将65岁以上人群的死亡率降低了30%至39%。这一发现基于事件研究设计,对一系列规范、一系列固定效应、安慰剂测试和使用县级数据的边界对政策不连续性设计都是稳健的。死亡率下降幅度最大的是流感和肾炎等传染性疾病的下降,这些疾病主要影响白人公民。
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引用次数: 5
Spatial population trends and economic development in Puerto Rico, 1765–2010 波多黎各人口空间趋势与经济发展:1765-2010
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-02-18 DOI: 10.1093/EREH/HEAB002
Brian Marein
I use data for consistently defined municipalities to describe spatial patterns in population growth in Puerto Rico across all stages of economic development and rule by Spain and then the United States. The spatial distribution of population began to resemble the modern distribution after the turn of the twentieth century, around the time that municipal population densities diverged. Municipal population growth was positively correlated with crop production in the preindustrial era and was negatively correlated with agricultural employment from 1899 to 1970. Urbanization commenced around 1900, decades earlier than generally believed and before most of the Caribbean and Central America.
我使用一致定义的市政当局的数据来描述波多黎各在经济发展和西班牙以及美国统治的各个阶段的人口增长空间模式。人口的空间分布在20世纪之交后开始类似于现代分布,大约在城市人口密度分化的时候。1899年至1970年,城市人口增长与前工业化时代的作物生产呈正相关,与农业就业呈负相关。城市化始于1900年左右,比人们普遍认为的要早几十年,也早于加勒比海和中美洲的大部分地区。
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引用次数: 2
Climate change, weather shocks, and price convergence in pre-industrial Germany 工业化前德国的气候变化、天气冲击和价格趋同
IF 1.4 1区 历史学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-02-17 DOI: 10.1093/EREH/HEAA030
H. Albers, U. Pfister
Market integration of European inland regions such as Germany caught up on North-Western Europe from the seventeenth century onwards. As many studies rely on grain prices and the pre-industrial era was a period of climate change, a relevant question is in how far changing weather shocks impact on the measurement of convergence trends. We create a new high-quality grain price dataset and apply four methodologies to quantify market integration robust to weather shocks and climate change. Population growth and river transport turn out as plausible explanations for price convergence rather than climate change.
从17世纪起,德国等欧洲内陆地区的市场一体化赶上了西北欧。由于许多研究都依赖于粮食价格,而前工业时代是一个气候变化时期,一个相关的问题是不断变化的天气冲击对趋同趋势的测量有多大影响。我们创建了一个新的高质量粮食价格数据集,并应用四种方法来量化对天气冲击和气候变化具有稳健性的市场整合。人口增长和河流运输是价格趋同的合理解释,而不是气候变化。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
European Review of Economic History
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