A decrease in the labor force and an increase in the elderly population could slow economic growth.
劳动力的减少和老年人口的增加可能会减缓经济增长。
{"title":"Long-Run Economic Effects of Changes in the Age Dependency Ratio","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu","doi":"10.20955/ES.2016.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2016.17","url":null,"abstract":"A decrease in the labor force and an increase in the elderly population could slow economic growth.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89220111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Deleveraging may be caused by a declining willingness by households to borrow instead of a tightening of borrowing constraints.
去杠杆化可能是由于家庭借贷意愿的下降，而不是由于借贷限制的收紧。
{"title":"Household Financial Distress and Household Deleveraging","authors":"Helu Jiang, Juan M. Sánchez","doi":"10.20955/es.2016.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2016.18","url":null,"abstract":"Deleveraging may be caused by a declining willingness by households to borrow instead of a tightening of borrowing constraints.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82193086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite economic growth in the post-World War II period, few developing countries have been able to catch up to the income levels in the United States or other advanced economies. Such countries remain trapped at a relative low- or middle-income level. In this article, the authors redefine the concept of income traps as situations in which income levels relative to the United States remain constantly low and with no clear sign of convergence. This approach allows them to study the issue of economic convergence (or lack of it) directly. The authors describe evidence pointing to the existence of both relative low- and middle-income traps and examine cross-country historical transitions between income groups at the global and regional levels. Finally, they point out challenges to the benchmark neoclassical growth theory, which predicts convergence to the developed world over time, and discuss existing theories with the potential to explain income traps.
{"title":"Relative Income Traps","authors":"M. Arias, Y. Wen","doi":"10.20955/r.2016.41-60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.41-60","url":null,"abstract":"Despite economic growth in the post-World War II period, few developing countries have been able to catch up to the income levels in the United States or other advanced economies. Such countries remain trapped at a relative low- or middle-income level. In this article, the authors redefine the concept of income traps as situations in which income levels relative to the United States remain constantly low and with no clear sign of convergence. This approach allows them to study the issue of economic convergence (or lack of it) directly. The authors describe evidence pointing to the existence of both relative low- and middle-income traps and examine cross-country historical transitions between income groups at the global and regional levels. Finally, they point out challenges to the benchmark neoclassical growth theory, which predicts convergence to the developed world over time, and discuss existing theories with the potential to explain income traps.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84460752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert Harold Rasche(1941-2016) Former Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Robert Harold Rasche(1941-2016)，圣路易斯联邦储备银行前研究部主任。
{"title":"In Memoriam: Robert H. Rasche","authors":"[. Anonymous","doi":"10.20955/r.98.iii-iv","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.98.iii-iv","url":null,"abstract":"Robert Harold Rasche(1941-2016) Former Director of Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77281114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Counties with severe declines in housing net worth during the 2007-09 recession experienced larger declines in employment.
在2007-09年经济衰退期间，住房净值严重下降的县，其就业下降幅度更大。
{"title":"The Recent Evolution of U.S. Local Labor Markets","authors":"Maximiliano A. Dvorkin, Hannah G. Shell","doi":"10.20955/ES.2016.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2016.15","url":null,"abstract":"Counties with severe declines in housing net worth during the 2007-09 recession experienced larger declines in employment.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75405701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gas prices in St. Louis can jump 10 percent overnight.
圣路易斯的汽油价格一夜之间可以上涨10%。
{"title":"Filling the Tank on Fridays May Be a Bad Idea for St. Louisans","authors":"YiLi Chien, P. Morris","doi":"10.20955/ES.2016.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2016.8","url":null,"abstract":"Gas prices in St. Louis can jump 10 percent overnight.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73731818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unlike other components of private investment, residential investment has not yet recovered and remains well below its pre-recession level.
与私人投资的其他组成部分不同，住宅投资尚未恢复，仍远低于衰退前的水平。
{"title":"Private Investment and the Great Recession","authors":"F. Martin","doi":"10.20955/ES.2016.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2016.1","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike other components of private investment, residential investment has not yet recovered and remains well below its pre-recession level.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87707365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Interest rates are at historic lows. The U.S. effective federal funds rate was near zero between late 2008 and late 2015 and has remained low since “liftoff” in December 2015.1 Other developed countries, such as Germany, Japan, and Switzerland, have recently sold new long-term debt at negative yields. This essay revisits some facts about interest rate behavior to provide context for the current situation.
{"title":"A Perspective on Nominal Interest Rates","authors":"F. Martin","doi":"10.20955/es.2016.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2016.25","url":null,"abstract":"Interest rates are at historic lows. The U.S. effective federal funds rate was near zero between late 2008 and late 2015 and has remained low since “liftoff” in December 2015.1 Other developed countries, such as Germany, Japan, and Switzerland, have recently sold new long-term debt at negative yields. This essay revisits some facts about interest rate behavior to provide context for the current situation.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81947006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article reviews the evidence for duration dependence in job-finding rates and its implications for the unemployment duration distribution. The authors document duration dependence and show that it exists within nearly every demographic subgroup. Then, they examine the implications of duration dependence on unemployment duration, emphasizing that a uniform job-finding rate that does not incorporate duration dependence understates unemployment duration. Finally, they explore a composition-based approach to duration dependence, where they solve for the distribution of preexisting heterogeneity that is consistent with observed duration dependence. The authors look at how this distribution varies cyclically and, in particular, during the Great Recession. The largest changes occur at the low finding-rate tail of this distribution.
{"title":"Duration Dependence and Composition in Unemployment Spells","authors":"J. Eubanks, David Wiczer","doi":"10.20955/r.2016.263-276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2016.263-276","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews the evidence for duration dependence in job-finding rates and its implications for the unemployment duration distribution. The authors document duration dependence and show that it exists within nearly every demographic subgroup. Then, they examine the implications of duration dependence on unemployment duration, emphasizing that a uniform job-finding rate that does not incorporate duration dependence understates unemployment duration. Finally, they explore a composition-based approach to duration dependence, where they solve for the distribution of preexisting heterogeneity that is consistent with observed duration dependence. The authors look at how this distribution varies cyclically and, in particular, during the Great Recession. The largest changes occur at the low finding-rate tail of this distribution.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73466307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Rise in Chinese Tourism and its Effects on the Balance of Payments","authors":"Ana Maria Santacreu","doi":"10.20955/es.2016.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2016.26","url":null,"abstract":"No abstract available.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"84 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2016-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76788438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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