Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu
Non-essential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses since the onset of COVID-19.
自COVID-19爆发以来，非必要的接触密集型行业经历了最大规模的失业。
{"title":"The Decline of Employment During COVID-19: The Role of Contact-Intensive Industries","authors":"Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.40","url":null,"abstract":"Non-essential contact-intensive industries have experienced the largest job losses since the onset of COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82593746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper illustrates a challenge in analyzing the learning algorithms resulting in second-order difference equations. We show in a simple monetary model that the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations monetary steady state. We then show that to guarantee convergence, the gain parameter used in the learning rule has to be restricted based on economic fundamentals in the monetary model.
{"title":"Convergence to Rational Expectations in Learning Models: A Note of Caution","authors":"YiLi Chien, In-Koo Cho, B. Ravikumar","doi":"10.20955/r.103.351-65","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.351-65","url":null,"abstract":"This paper illustrates a challenge in analyzing the learning algorithms resulting in second-order difference equations. We show in a simple monetary model that the learning dynamics do not converge to the rational expectations monetary steady state. We then show that to guarantee convergence, the gain parameter used in the learning rule has to be restricted based on economic fundamentals in the monetary model.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88695045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-18DOI: 10.18651/er/v105n1cowley
Cortney Cowley
Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans could reduce the global competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the longer term.
从长远来看，中国对美国大豆征收关税可能会降低美国大豆的全球竞争力。
{"title":"Reshuffling in Soybean Markets following Chinese Tariffs","authors":"Cortney Cowley","doi":"10.18651/er/v105n1cowley","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v105n1cowley","url":null,"abstract":"Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans could reduce the global competitiveness of U.S. soybeans in the longer term.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90412155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The government’s response to stem the pandemic has resulted in an erosion in public finances.
政府为遏制疫情而采取的措施导致公共财政受到侵蚀。
{"title":"Bad Medicine? Federal Debt and Deficits after Covid-19","authors":"Kevin L. Kliesen","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.32","url":null,"abstract":"The government’s response to stem the pandemic has resulted in an erosion in public finances.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"19 2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79195855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.
移民比例较高的州往往出口更高比例的制成品。
{"title":"Immigration and International Trade in U.S. Manufactured Goods","authors":"Matthew Famiglietti, Fernando Leibovici","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.34","url":null,"abstract":"States with higher shares of immigrants tend to export a higher fraction of manufactured goods.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72683235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fed policy appears to have assisted the corporate credit market during a period of unusually high risk and fire-sale prices.
美联储的政策似乎帮助了企业信贷市场度过了一个风险异常高、价格贱卖的时期。
{"title":"Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Supports Main Street","authors":"Bruce Mizrach, Christopher J. Neely","doi":"10.20955/es.2020.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2020.17","url":null,"abstract":"Fed policy appears to have assisted the corporate credit market during a period of unusually high risk and fire-sale prices.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80813190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Although the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions have been weaker in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. In particular, residents in LMI communities are much less likely to work than residents in higher-income (non-LMI) communities. As of 2017, 35 percent of residents in LMI communities age 18–64 were not working compared with 24.9 percent in non-LMI communities. In this article, I use a formal text analysis of a unique set of survey comments to examine prominent obstacles to working, and compare the prevalence of these obstacles, or “employment barriers,” in LMI and non-LMI communities. I find that lower educational attainment and lack of access to transportation and childcare are among the most prominent barriers to employment, and these problems are especially prevalent in LMI communities. Although public assistance, disabilities, and chronic health conditions are considerably more prevalent in LMI communities, they are not especially prominent barriers in the text analysis.
{"title":"Why Aren’t More People Working in Low- and Moderate-Income Areas?","authors":"Kelly D. Edmiston","doi":"10.18651/4q19edmiston","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/4q19edmiston","url":null,"abstract":"Although the U.S. labor market has seen strong growth in recent years, labor market conditions have been weaker in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. In particular, residents in LMI communities are much less likely to work than residents in higher-income (non-LMI) communities. As of 2017, 35 percent of residents in LMI communities age 18–64 were not working compared with 24.9 percent in non-LMI communities. In this article, I use a formal text analysis of a unique set of survey comments to examine prominent obstacles to working, and compare the prevalence of these obstacles, or “employment barriers,” in LMI and non-LMI communities. I find that lower educational attainment and lack of access to transportation and childcare are among the most prominent barriers to employment, and these problems are especially prevalent in LMI communities. Although public assistance, disabilities, and chronic health conditions are considerably more prevalent in LMI communities, they are not especially prominent barriers in the text analysis.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"2021 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2020-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83054479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review explores the power of arts and culture to transform the practice of community development. Published in partnership with ArtPlace America and PolicyLink, this issue takes a deep dive into the lessons learned from the Community Development Investments program and offers reflections from industry leaders on the implications for the broader community development field. The diverse range of authors includes artists, community developers, bankers, and researchers, and their collective voices frame a rich conversation on how openness to the creative process can help community development organizations better achieve their mission of expanding opportunity for low-income communities.
{"title":"Transforming Community Development through Arts and Culture","authors":"Laura Choi","doi":"10.24148/cdir2019-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/cdir2019-02","url":null,"abstract":"This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review explores the power of arts and culture to transform the practice of community development. Published in partnership with ArtPlace America and PolicyLink, this issue takes a deep dive into the lessons learned from the Community Development Investments program and offers reflections from industry leaders on the implications for the broader community development field. The diverse range of authors includes artists, community developers, bankers, and researchers, and their collective voices frame a rich conversation on how openness to the creative process can help community development organizations better achieve their mission of expanding opportunity for low-income communities.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"137 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73964371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Societies have come to rely on simple rules to restrict the size and behavior of governments: constraints on monetary policy, revenue, budget balance and debt. I study the merit of these constraints in a dynamic stochastic model in which fiscal and monetary policies are jointly determined. Under several specifications, a revenue ceiling is the only rule that effectively induces the government to lower spending and dominates other policy constraints in terms of welfare by an order of magnitude. However, the reduction in spending is modest and comes at the cost of higher debt and inflation. Monetary policy rules are not desirable as they severely hinder distortion-smoothing and may lead to large welfare losses if implemented incorrectly. Budget balance and debt rules are generally benign, with the former being always preferable to the latter. All types of fiscal rules are usually best implemented at all times, but can be suspended in adverse times, often at a minor cost.
{"title":"How to Starve the Beast: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules","authors":"F. Martin","doi":"10.20955/wp.2019.026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2019.026","url":null,"abstract":"Societies have come to rely on simple rules to restrict the size and behavior of governments: constraints on monetary policy, revenue, budget balance and debt. I study the merit of these constraints in a dynamic stochastic model in which fiscal and monetary policies are jointly determined. Under several specifications, a revenue ceiling is the only rule that effectively induces the government to lower spending and dominates other policy constraints in terms of welfare by an order of magnitude. However, the reduction in spending is modest and comes at the cost of higher debt and inflation. Monetary policy rules are not desirable as they severely hinder distortion-smoothing and may lead to large welfare losses if implemented incorrectly. Budget balance and debt rules are generally benign, with the former being always preferable to the latter. All types of fiscal rules are usually best implemented at all times, but can be suspended in adverse times, often at a minor cost.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87818746","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-10-08DOI: 10.18651/er/3q19tuzementhao
Thao Tran, Didem Tuzemen
The labor force participation rate of prime-age individuals (age 25 to 54) in the United States declined dramatically during and after the Great Recession. Although the prime-age labor force participation rate has been increasing since mid-2015, it remains below its pre-recession level. Understanding the reasons for this decline requires detailed analysis; aggregate statistics on labor force participation may mask potential differences in labor market outcomes by sex or educational attainment. Didem Tzemen and Thao Tran identify these differences, finding that prime-age men and women without a college degree experienced larger declines in their labor force participation rates during the recession than their college-educated counterparts. The disappearance of routine jobs over the last few decades may explain these declines. In addition, they find that only prime-age women with a college degree have seen their labor force participation rate fully recover to its pre-recession level, although their participation rate remains well below that of both college-educated and non-college-educated men.
{"title":"The Uneven Recovery in Prime-Age Labor Force Participation","authors":"Thao Tran, Didem Tuzemen","doi":"10.18651/er/3q19tuzementhao","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/3q19tuzementhao","url":null,"abstract":"The labor force participation rate of prime-age individuals (age 25 to 54) in the United States declined dramatically during and after the Great Recession. Although the prime-age labor force participation rate has been increasing since mid-2015, it remains below its pre-recession level. Understanding the reasons for this decline requires detailed analysis; aggregate statistics on labor force participation may mask potential differences in labor market outcomes by sex or educational attainment. Didem Tzemen and Thao Tran identify these differences, finding that prime-age men and women without a college degree experienced larger declines in their labor force participation rates during the recession than their college-educated counterparts. The disappearance of routine jobs over the last few decades may explain these declines. In addition, they find that only prime-age women with a college degree have seen their labor force participation rate fully recover to its pre-recession level, although their participation rate remains well below that of both college-educated and non-college-educated men.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"144 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85707730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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