J. Keenan, Michael D. Berman, Ryan Lewis, Thomas E. Hanna, Elizabeth Rogers, Anna L. Brown, K. Bisson, Caroline Lewis, Jennifer K. McGee-Avila, Allison Brooks
This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review offers strategies that address climate change risk in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. As these communities begin to grapple with a changing environment, strategic investments can increase resiliency and support adaptation while simultaneously advancing community development priorities. The articles in this issue of the Review consider these investment opportunities from a diverse set of community, financial, economic, and academic perspectives.
{"title":"Strategies to Address Climate Change Risk in Low- and Moderate-income Communities","authors":"J. Keenan, Michael D. Berman, Ryan Lewis, Thomas E. Hanna, Elizabeth Rogers, Anna L. Brown, K. Bisson, Caroline Lewis, Jennifer K. McGee-Avila, Allison Brooks","doi":"10.24148/cdir2019-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24148/cdir2019-01","url":null,"abstract":"This issue of the Community Development Innovation Review offers strategies that address climate change risk in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. As these communities begin to grapple with a changing environment, strategic investments can increase resiliency and support adaptation while simultaneously advancing community development priorities. The articles in this issue of the Review consider these investment opportunities from a diverse set of community, financial, economic, and academic perspectives.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89730244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Measuring the current state of the U.S. economy in real time is an important but challenging task for monetary policymakers. The most comprehensive measure of the state of the economy?real gross domestic product?is available at a relatively low frequency (quarterly) and with a significant delay (one month). To obtain more timely assessments of the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has developed a GDP tracking model that combines new econometric methods with two conventional approaches to estimating GDP. {{p}} Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae review the Kansas City Fed model?s underlying details and illustrate its performance by comparing the model?s tracking estimates to those from other real-time tracking models. Their results suggest the Kansas City Fed model provides a useful tool for policymakers by combining estimates and forecasts from factor and accounting-based models.
{"title":"Tracking U.S. GDP in Real Time","authors":"Jaeheung Bae, Tae-Yong Doh","doi":"10.18651/ER/3Q19DOEBAE","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/3Q19DOEBAE","url":null,"abstract":"Measuring the current state of the U.S. economy in real time is an important but challenging task for monetary policymakers. The most comprehensive measure of the state of the economy?real gross domestic product?is available at a relatively low frequency (quarterly) and with a significant delay (one month). To obtain more timely assessments of the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has developed a GDP tracking model that combines new econometric methods with two conventional approaches to estimating GDP. {{p}} Taeyoung Doh and Jaeheung Bae review the Kansas City Fed model?s underlying details and illustrate its performance by comparing the model?s tracking estimates to those from other real-time tracking models. Their results suggest the Kansas City Fed model provides a useful tool for policymakers by combining estimates and forecasts from factor and accounting-based models.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78668048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-18DOI: 10.18651/ER/3Q19SENGUPTADICE
Jacob Dice, Rajdeep Sengupta
Although the total number of bank branches in the United States increased from the mid-1990s to 2007, this number has declined since the 2007-08 financial crisis. A loss in bank branches is potentially problematic because it may reduce customers? access to financial services as well as small businesses? access to credit. Changes in local conditions may partly explain this loss: the number of branches varies signficantly across geographic areas, and local conditions have been shown to influence past trends in bank branching. {{p}} Rajdeep Sengupta and Jacob Dice examine the relationship between bank branching and local conditions over the last two decades to assess which factors contributed to the decline in bank branches. They find a strong association between the number of branches in a county and that county?s population, income, and employment. In addition, they find that the relative influence of local market and competitive factors on branch openings and closings strengthened after the financial crisis, while the influence of local demographic and economic factors weakened.
{"title":"Did Local Factors Contribute to the Decline in Bank Branches?","authors":"Jacob Dice, Rajdeep Sengupta","doi":"10.18651/ER/3Q19SENGUPTADICE","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/3Q19SENGUPTADICE","url":null,"abstract":"Although the total number of bank branches in the United States increased from the mid-1990s to 2007, this number has declined since the 2007-08 financial crisis. A loss in bank branches is potentially problematic because it may reduce customers? access to financial services as well as small businesses? access to credit. Changes in local conditions may partly explain this loss: the number of branches varies signficantly across geographic areas, and local conditions have been shown to influence past trends in bank branching. {{p}} Rajdeep Sengupta and Jacob Dice examine the relationship between bank branching and local conditions over the last two decades to assess which factors contributed to the decline in bank branches. They find a strong association between the number of branches in a county and that county?s population, income, and employment. In addition, they find that the relative influence of local market and competitive factors on branch openings and closings strengthened after the financial crisis, while the influence of local demographic and economic factors weakened.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73968961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-07-02DOI: 10.18651/ER/2Q19BIHUNTZUBAIRY
Huixin Bi, K. Hunt, Sarah Zubairy
As the global population ages, public spending on pensions has increased dramatically. As a result, policymakers have increasingly focused on pension retrenchment reforms to keep their systems solvent. These reforms usually involve long implementation delays to provide retirees time to adjust their retirement plans. However, long implementation delays also slow the rollback of governments? pension spending, potentially raising long-run fiscal risks. {{p}} {{p}} Huixin Bi, Kevin Hunt, and Sarah Zubairy collect a new data set that tracks implementation delays during pension retrenchment reforms for 12 countries from 1962 to 2017. They find that the average phase-in period for a pension retrenchment reform is about a decade. However, they also find that implementation delays are significantly longer for age-related pension reforms, which account for a large share of pension retrenchments since 2000.
{"title":"Implementation Delays in Pension Retrenchment Reforms","authors":"Huixin Bi, K. Hunt, Sarah Zubairy","doi":"10.18651/ER/2Q19BIHUNTZUBAIRY","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/2Q19BIHUNTZUBAIRY","url":null,"abstract":"As the global population ages, public spending on pensions has increased dramatically. As a result, policymakers have increasingly focused on pension retrenchment reforms to keep their systems solvent. These reforms usually involve long implementation delays to provide retirees time to adjust their retirement plans. However, long implementation delays also slow the rollback of governments? pension spending, potentially raising long-run fiscal risks. {{p}} {{p}} Huixin Bi, Kevin Hunt, and Sarah Zubairy collect a new data set that tracks implementation delays during pension retrenchment reforms for 12 countries from 1962 to 2017. They find that the average phase-in period for a pension retrenchment reform is about a decade. However, they also find that implementation delays are significantly longer for age-related pension reforms, which account for a large share of pension retrenchments since 2000.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"297 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75000093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The auto sector continues to play an important role in understanding recessions.
汽车行业在理解经济衰退方面继续发挥着重要作用。
{"title":"Auto Sales and the 2007-09 Recession","authors":"Bill Dupor","doi":"10.20955/ES.2019.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/ES.2019.16","url":null,"abstract":"The auto sector continues to play an important role in understanding recessions.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80945783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-05-29DOI: 10.18651/ER/2Q19RODZIEWICZSLY
David Rodziewicz, Nicholas Sly
Corporate debt levels have grown substantially during the 10-year recovery from the global financial crisis. This debt might be expected to finance investments that support firm expansion, as the U.S. economy has experienced strong growth over the last 10 years. However, much of the corporate debt has been used to reallocate capital through mergers and acquisitions rather than to fund investment activity. Perhaps as a result, some market watchers have expressed concerns that corporations are crowding out, rather than complementing, new investment. {{p}} David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly show that rising merger and acquisition activity does not fully crowd out new capital investment, as both sales of existing capital between firms and investment in new capital tend to rise and fall together. Moreover, they find that this relationship holds both in the aggregate and within most U.S. industries. Their results suggest that rising merger and acquisition activity complements investment growth by allowing firms to strategically position themselves and build their productive capacity.
在全球金融危机后的10年复苏期间，企业债务水平大幅上升。随着美国经济在过去10年经历了强劲增长，这些债务可能会为支持企业扩张的投资提供资金。然而，大部分公司债务被用于通过并购重新配置资本，而不是为投资活动提供资金。或许正因为如此，一些市场观察人士表达了他们的担忧，即企业正在排挤、而不是补充新投资。{{p}} David Rodziewicz和Nicholas Sly表明，不断增加的并购活动并没有完全挤出新的资本投资，因为公司之间现有资本的销售和新资本的投资往往同时上升和下降。此外，他们发现这种关系在总体和大多数美国行业中都成立。他们的研究结果表明，不断增加的并购活动通过允许企业战略性地定位自己和建立自己的生产能力来补充投资增长。
{"title":"Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment","authors":"David Rodziewicz, Nicholas Sly","doi":"10.18651/ER/2Q19RODZIEWICZSLY","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/2Q19RODZIEWICZSLY","url":null,"abstract":"Corporate debt levels have grown substantially during the 10-year recovery from the global financial crisis. This debt might be expected to finance investments that support firm expansion, as the U.S. economy has experienced strong growth over the last 10 years. However, much of the corporate debt has been used to reallocate capital through mergers and acquisitions rather than to fund investment activity. Perhaps as a result, some market watchers have expressed concerns that corporations are crowding out, rather than complementing, new investment. {{p}} David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly show that rising merger and acquisition activity does not fully crowd out new capital investment, as both sales of existing capital between firms and investment in new capital tend to rise and fall together. Moreover, they find that this relationship holds both in the aggregate and within most U.S. industries. Their results suggest that rising merger and acquisition activity complements investment growth by allowing firms to strategically position themselves and build their productive capacity.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82165493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The prevalence of multiple job holders in the U.S. data is trending down since the mid 1990s, and cross-sectional data reveal two seemingly contradictory patterns regarding multiple job holders: (i) conditional on education the most productive workers are the least likely to hold multiple jobs; (ii) the most educated workers are the most likely to hold multiple jobs, even though they are the most productive. We develop an equilibrium model of the labor market to understand these facts. A dominating income effect explains both the negative correlation with productivity and the downward trend overtime, while a higher part-to-fulltime pay differential for skilled workers (a comparative advantage) explains the positive correlation with education. We provide empirical evidence of the comparative advantage using CPS data. We calibrate the model to 1994 and assess its ability to reproduce the 2017 data. There are three exogenous driving forces: productivity, number of children and the proportion of skilled workers. The model accounts for 64.1% of the moonlighting trend for college-educated workers, and 96.7% for high school-educated workers.
{"title":"Comparative Advantage and Moonlighting","authors":"G. Vandenbroucke, David L. Fuller, S. Auray","doi":"10.20955/wp.2019.016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2019.016","url":null,"abstract":"The prevalence of multiple job holders in the U.S. data is trending down since the mid 1990s, and cross-sectional data reveal two seemingly contradictory patterns regarding multiple job holders: (i) conditional on education the most productive workers are the least likely to hold multiple jobs; (ii) the most educated workers are the most likely to hold multiple jobs, even though they are the most productive. We develop an equilibrium model of the labor market to understand these facts. A dominating income effect explains both the negative correlation with productivity and the downward trend overtime, while a higher part-to-fulltime pay differential for skilled workers (a comparative advantage) explains the positive correlation with education. We provide empirical evidence of the comparative advantage using CPS data. We calibrate the model to 1994 and assess its ability to reproduce the 2017 data. There are three exogenous driving forces: productivity, number of children and the proportion of skilled workers. The model accounts for 64.1% of the moonlighting trend for college-educated workers, and 96.7% for high school-educated workers.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85692921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-05-08DOI: 10.18651/ER/2Q19VANZANDWEGHE
Willem Van Zandweghe
Although inflation has run somewhat below the Federal Reserve?s 2 percent objective during the ongoing economic expansion, the ?missing disinflation? during the Great Recession presents a much bigger puzzle for economists. During the recession, unemployment rose sharply, but core inflation declined only moderately. As a result, some economists have questioned whether the traditional inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment?known as the Phillips curve?still holds. {{p}} Willem Van Zandweghe estimates a Phillips curve model consistent with microdata on consumer prices. The model predicts stable inflation with a decline in unit labor costs during the recession, in line with the observed patterns in these macroeconomic variables. The model provides support for the view that inflation expectations shaped by monetary policy played an important role in preventing disinflation after the Great Recession. His results suggest Phillips curve models remain useful tools for central banks.
尽管通货膨胀率在一定程度上低于美联储?在持续的经济扩张期间，2%的目标，缺失的反通胀?对经济学家来说，这是一个更大的难题。在经济衰退期间，失业率急剧上升，但核心通胀率仅温和下降。因此，一些经济学家质疑，通胀与失业之间的传统反比关系是否存在?也就是菲利普斯曲线?仍然成立。{{p}} Willem Van Zandweghe估计了一个符合消费者价格微观数据的菲利普斯曲线模型。该模型预测，在经济衰退期间，单位劳动力成本将下降，通胀将保持稳定，这与观察到的这些宏观经济变量的模式一致。该模型为以下观点提供了支持:在大衰退(Great Recession)之后，由货币政策塑造的通胀预期在防止通缩方面发挥了重要作用。他的研究结果表明，菲利普斯曲线模型仍然是央行的有用工具。
{"title":"The Phillips Curve and the Missing Disinflation from the Great Recession","authors":"Willem Van Zandweghe","doi":"10.18651/ER/2Q19VANZANDWEGHE","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/2Q19VANZANDWEGHE","url":null,"abstract":"Although inflation has run somewhat below the Federal Reserve?s 2 percent objective during the ongoing economic expansion, the ?missing disinflation? during the Great Recession presents a much bigger puzzle for economists. During the recession, unemployment rose sharply, but core inflation declined only moderately. As a result, some economists have questioned whether the traditional inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment?known as the Phillips curve?still holds. {{p}} Willem Van Zandweghe estimates a Phillips curve model consistent with microdata on consumer prices. The model predicts stable inflation with a decline in unit labor costs during the recession, in line with the observed patterns in these macroeconomic variables. The model provides support for the view that inflation expectations shaped by monetary policy played an important role in preventing disinflation after the Great Recession. His results suggest Phillips curve models remain useful tools for central banks.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75523554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-04-11DOI: 10.18651/ER/1Q19BUNDICKPOLLARD
Brent H. Bundick, Emily Pollard
The cost of college tuition increased rapidly from 1980 to 2004 at a rate of about 7 percent per year, significantly outpacing the overall inflation rate. Since 2005, college tuition inflation has slowed markedly and has averaged closer to 2 percent per year for the last few years. Understanding what drives tuition inflation is important for predicting future tuition as well as personal income mobility. However, untangling the various supply and demand factors influencing college tuition can be challenging. {{p}} Brent Bundick and Emily Pollard document changes in college tuition inflation over time and attempt to explain the long rise and subsequent fall in college tuition inflation. They find that supply factors such as wages in the education sector and state appropriations to higher education both play important roles in explaining changes in college tuition inflation. In contrast, they find little evidence that demand factors such as changes in the availability of student loans have a significant effect on college tuition.
{"title":"The Rise and Fall of College Tuition Inflation","authors":"Brent H. Bundick, Emily Pollard","doi":"10.18651/ER/1Q19BUNDICKPOLLARD","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/1Q19BUNDICKPOLLARD","url":null,"abstract":"The cost of college tuition increased rapidly from 1980 to 2004 at a rate of about 7 percent per year, significantly outpacing the overall inflation rate. Since 2005, college tuition inflation has slowed markedly and has averaged closer to 2 percent per year for the last few years. Understanding what drives tuition inflation is important for predicting future tuition as well as personal income mobility. However, untangling the various supply and demand factors influencing college tuition can be challenging. {{p}} Brent Bundick and Emily Pollard document changes in college tuition inflation over time and attempt to explain the long rise and subsequent fall in college tuition inflation. They find that supply factors such as wages in the education sector and state appropriations to higher education both play important roles in explaining changes in college tuition inflation. In contrast, they find little evidence that demand factors such as changes in the availability of student loans have a significant effect on college tuition.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2019-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89106078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-03-28DOI: 10.18651/ER/1Q19MUSTRE-DEL-RIO-POLLARD
José Mustre-del-Ŕıo, Emily Pollard
Expected lifetime earnings are a key factor in many individual decisions, such as whether or not to go to college and what kind of occupation to pursue. However, lifetime earnings differ widely across individuals, and uncovering the factors that explain these differences can be challenging. Some characteristics, such as race and sex, are observable. But other intangible characteristics, such as work performance, are more difficult to quantify. To what degree observable characteristics explain lifetime earnings is an empirical question. {{p}} Jos Mustre-del-Ro and Emily Pollard use a unique data set combining administrative and survey data to assess how much variation in lifetime earnings across individuals can be explained by observable characteristics such as sex, race, education, and labor market experience. They find that labor market experience?that is, the fact that some individuals work more years than others?accounts for roughly 40 percent of the difference in earnings. Standard demographic characteristics such as sex, race, or education alone explain about 15 percent of these differences. In total, observable characteristics account for a little more than half of lifetime earnings differences.
预期终身收入是许多个人决定的关键因素，比如是否上大学以及从事什么样的职业。然而，个人的终身收入差异很大，揭示解释这些差异的因素可能具有挑战性。有些特征，如种族和性别，是可以观察到的。但其他无形的特征，如工作表现，则更难量化。可观察特征在多大程度上解释终身收入是一个实证问题。{{p}} jose Mustre-del-Ro和Emily Pollard使用了一个独特的数据集，结合了行政和调查数据，来评估个人一生收入的差异有多大，可以用性别、种族、教育和劳动力市场经验等可观察特征来解释。他们发现劳动力市场的经验?也就是说，有些人比其他人工作的时间更长?大约占收入差异的40%。标准的人口统计学特征，如性别、种族或教育程度，就能解释这些差异的15%。总的来说，可观察到的特征占了一生收入差异的一半多一点。
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