Repayment rates for farm loans have declined every quarter since the second quarter of 2013, suggesting heightened stress in agricultural lending. If repayment rates continue to decline—and the outlook for the agricultural sector remains downbeat—agricultural banks could become less able to lend to creditworthy farm borrowers. Thus, declining repayment rates could lead to adverse outcomes for agricultural banks, farmers, and the rural economies they serve. {{p}} Cortney Cowley uses data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Ag Credit Survey to model and map areas with the highest probability of stress in agricultural lending. She finds that the largest increase in stress over the past decade occurred in 2016. She also finds that lower crop revenues, lower off-farm income, lower farmland values, lower concentrations of farm earnings, and higher interest rates are associated with higher stress in agricultural lending.
{"title":"Mapping Stress in Agricultural Lending","authors":"Cortney Cowley","doi":"10.18651/er/3q18cowley","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/3q18cowley","url":null,"abstract":"Repayment rates for farm loans have declined every quarter since the second quarter of 2013, suggesting heightened stress in agricultural lending. If repayment rates continue to decline—and the outlook for the agricultural sector remains downbeat—agricultural banks could become less able to lend to creditworthy farm borrowers. Thus, declining repayment rates could lead to adverse outcomes for agricultural banks, farmers, and the rural economies they serve. {{p}} Cortney Cowley uses data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Ag Credit Survey to model and map areas with the highest probability of stress in agricultural lending. She finds that the largest increase in stress over the past decade occurred in 2016. She also finds that lower crop revenues, lower off-farm income, lower farmland values, lower concentrations of farm earnings, and higher interest rates are associated with higher stress in agricultural lending.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73696866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-04-01DOI: 10.18651/ER/2Q18HAYASHIMINHAS
Fumiko Hayashi, S. Minhas
As the U.S. economy recovered from the Great Recession, more households entered the banking system. Still, 9 million households were unbanked in 2015. Understanding the characteristics of these households is critical in designing effective policies for financial inclusion. Policymakers often consider low income to be the defining characteristic of the unbanked. However, this broad characterization may mask large differences in banking status within low-income groups. {{p}} Fumiko Hayashi and Sabrina Minhas examine which household characteristics beyond income are associated with households? probability of being unbanked. They find that even after accounting for income, multiple socioeconomic and technological factors contribute to households? probability of being unbanked. In particular, they find that low-income households without internet access have a much higher probability of being unbanked than those with internet access.
{"title":"Who Are the Unbanked? Characteristics Beyond Income","authors":"Fumiko Hayashi, S. Minhas","doi":"10.18651/ER/2Q18HAYASHIMINHAS","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/ER/2Q18HAYASHIMINHAS","url":null,"abstract":"As the U.S. economy recovered from the Great Recession, more households entered the banking system. Still, 9 million households were unbanked in 2015. Understanding the characteristics of these households is critical in designing effective policies for financial inclusion. Policymakers often consider low income to be the defining characteristic of the unbanked. However, this broad characterization may mask large differences in banking status within low-income groups. {{p}} Fumiko Hayashi and Sabrina Minhas examine which household characteristics beyond income are associated with households? probability of being unbanked. They find that even after accounting for income, multiple socioeconomic and technological factors contribute to households? probability of being unbanked. In particular, they find that low-income households without internet access have a much higher probability of being unbanked than those with internet access.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74379835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
During the period from 1965 to the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve operated monetary policy in a variety of ways associated with four distinct monetary policy regimes.
在1965年至2015年底期间，美联储通过四种不同的货币政策机制以多种方式操作货币政策。
{"title":"Monetary Policy Regimes and the Real Interest Rate","authors":"W. Gavin","doi":"10.20955/r.2018.151-69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2018.151-69","url":null,"abstract":"During the period from 1965 to the end of 2015, the Federal Reserve operated monetary policy in a variety of ways associated with four distinct monetary policy regimes.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87105236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The macroeconomic consequences of large-scale early childhood development policies depend on intergenerational dynamics, general equilibrium (GE) effects on labor and capital markets, and the deadweight loss of raising taxes to finance the policies. To study these policies, this paper extends a standard GE heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations macro model with earnings risk and credit constraints to incorporate early childhood investments (parental time and money) and estimates it using US data. We validate the model by performing an RCT evaluation of a short-run small-scale government program that funds early childhood investments and showing that the effects on children’s education and adult income in the model are similar to the empirical evidence. We then evaluate a permanent large-scale version of this early childhood program, taking into account GE and taxation effects, and find that it yields a 10% welfare increase (in consumption equivalence terms), reduces inequality by 7%, and increases intergenerational mobility of income by 30%—approximately enough for the US to achieve Canadian or Australian levels of inequality and mobility. Welfare gains are twice the ones obtained by introducing the same early childhood program as a short-run partial-equilibrium policy—similar to an RCT. Although GE and taxation effects reduce the gains by one-tenth each, the long-run change in the distribution of parental characteristics more than compensates for those reductions. Key to this welfare gain is that investing in a child not only improves her skills but also creates a better parent for the next generation. Although earlier generations gain less, welfare gains are positive for every new generation and grow rapidly during the transition.
{"title":"The Macroeconomic Consequences of Early Childhood Development Policies","authors":"Diego Daruich","doi":"10.20955/wp.2018.029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2018.029","url":null,"abstract":"The macroeconomic consequences of large-scale early childhood development policies depend on intergenerational dynamics, general equilibrium (GE) effects on labor and capital markets, and the deadweight loss of raising taxes to finance the policies. To study these policies, this paper extends a standard GE heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations macro model with earnings risk and credit constraints to incorporate early childhood investments (parental time and money) and estimates it using US data. We validate the model by performing an RCT evaluation of a short-run small-scale government program that funds early childhood investments and showing that the effects on children’s education and adult income in the model are similar to the empirical evidence. We then evaluate a permanent large-scale version of this early childhood program, taking into account GE and taxation effects, and find that it yields a 10% welfare increase (in consumption equivalence terms), reduces inequality by 7%, and increases intergenerational mobility of income by 30%—approximately enough for the US to achieve Canadian or Australian levels of inequality and mobility. Welfare gains are twice the ones obtained by introducing the same early childhood program as a short-run partial-equilibrium policy—similar to an RCT. Although GE and taxation effects reduce the gains by one-tenth each, the long-run change in the distribution of parental characteristics more than compensates for those reductions. Key to this welfare gain is that investing in a child not only improves her skills but also creates a better parent for the next generation. Although earlier generations gain less, welfare gains are positive for every new generation and grow rapidly during the transition.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"127 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90279213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The customer capital model is consistent with Great Recession markup dynamics.
客户资本模型与大萧条时期的利润动态是一致的。
{"title":"Firms’ Price-Markup Dynamics During the Great Recession","authors":"Sungki Hong","doi":"10.20955/es.2018.20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2018.20","url":null,"abstract":"The customer capital model is consistent with Great Recession markup dynamics.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75291396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This essay investigates the extent to which trade liberalization affects developed and developing countries differently. In particular, we examine whether exports respond differently to changes in trade barriers in rich and poor countries.
{"title":"Trade Liberalization and Economic Development","authors":"Fernando Leibovici, J. Crews","doi":"10.20955/es.2018.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2018.13","url":null,"abstract":"This essay investigates the extent to which trade liberalization affects developed and developing countries differently. In particular, we examine whether exports respond differently to changes in trade barriers in rich and poor countries.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"278 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76565899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
If house prices in one metropolitan statistical area (MSA) are increasing much faster than in another MSA, should one infer that overall inflation is also much faster in the former?
{"title":"Warning: Don't Infer Regional Inflation Differences from House Price Changes","authors":"Charles S. Gascon, Andrew Spewak","doi":"10.20955/es.2018.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2018.6","url":null,"abstract":"If house prices in one metropolitan statistical area (MSA) are increasing much faster than in another MSA, should one infer that overall inflation is also much faster in the former?","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"92 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87339567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Programs supporting the financial sector comprised most of the fiscal outflow during the Great Recession.
在大衰退期间，支持金融部门的项目构成了大部分财政流出。
{"title":"What are the Fiscal Costs of a (Great) Recession?","authors":"Miguel Faria-e-Castro","doi":"10.20955/es.2018.22","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2018.22","url":null,"abstract":"Programs supporting the financial sector comprised most of the fiscal outflow during the Great Recession.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"218 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79741724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this article, we give a short introduction to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The focus of the introduction is on Bitcoin, but many elements are shared by other blockchain implementations and alternative cryptoassets. The article covers the original idea and motivation, the mode of operation and possible applications of cryptocurrencies, and blockchain technology. We conclude that Bitcoin has a wide range of interesting applications and that cryptoassets are well suited to become an important asset class.
{"title":"A Short Introduction to the World of Cryptocurrencies","authors":"Aleksander Berentsen, Fabian Schär","doi":"10.20955/r.2018.1-16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/r.2018.1-16","url":null,"abstract":"In this article, we give a short introduction to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. The focus of the introduction is on Bitcoin, but many elements are shared by other blockchain implementations and alternative cryptoassets. The article covers the original idea and motivation, the mode of operation and possible applications of cryptocurrencies, and blockchain technology. We conclude that Bitcoin has a wide range of interesting applications and that cryptoassets are well suited to become an important asset class.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"6 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80065947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
How do banks respond to asset booms? This paper examines i) how U.S. banks responded to the World War I farmland boom; ii) the impact of regulation; and iii) how bank closures exacerbated the post-war bust. The boom encouraged new bank formation and balance sheet expansion (especially by new banks). Deposit insurance amplified the impact of rising crop prices on bank portfolios, while higher minimum capital requirements dampened the effects. Banks that responded most aggressively to the asset boom had a higher probability of closing in the bust, and counties with more bank closures experienced larger declines in land prices.
{"title":"Banking on the Boom, Tripped by the Bust: Banks and the World War I Agricultural Price Shock","authors":"Matthew S. Jaremski, David C. Wheelock","doi":"10.20955/wp.2017.036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2017.036","url":null,"abstract":"How do banks respond to asset booms? This paper examines i) how U.S. banks responded to the World War I farmland boom; ii) the impact of regulation; and iii) how bank closures exacerbated the post-war bust. The boom encouraged new bank formation and balance sheet expansion (especially by new banks). Deposit insurance amplified the impact of rising crop prices on bank portfolios, while higher minimum capital requirements dampened the effects. Banks that responded most aggressively to the asset boom had a higher probability of closing in the bust, and counties with more bank closures experienced larger declines in land prices.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2017-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83858532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：