Pub Date : 2023-02-23DOI: 10.18651/er/v108n2browntousey
Jason S. Brown, Colton Tousey
{"title":"The Shifting Expectations for Work from Home","authors":"Jason S. Brown, Colton Tousey","doi":"10.18651/er/v108n2browntousey","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v108n2browntousey","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89138759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-09DOI: 10.18651/er/v108n1diltsstedmangulati
Karlye Dilts Stedman, Chaitri Gulati
{"title":"FOMC Communication Spillovers: Is There a “Call-Out” Effect?","authors":"Karlye Dilts Stedman, Chaitri Gulati","doi":"10.18651/er/v108n1diltsstedmangulati","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v108n1diltsstedmangulati","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78471807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-12DOI: 10.18651/er/v108n1glovermustredelriovonendebecker
Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Ŕıo, Alice von Ende-Becker
Inflation reached a 40-year high in 2021 and continued to climb in 2022. Record corporate profits received significant public attention as a potential explanation for high inflation. Although corporate profits and inflation do not have a direct accounting relationship, inflation is directly affected by growth in the markup, or the ratio between the price a firm charges and the firm’s current marginal cost of production. Thus, the sum of the growth in the marginal cost of production and the growth in the markup is the inflation in a firm’s price. Markups can change over time for many reasons, including firms’ expectations for their marginal costs in the future.
{"title":"How Much Have Record Corporate Profits Contributed to Recent Inflation?","authors":"Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Ŕıo, Alice von Ende-Becker","doi":"10.18651/er/v108n1glovermustredelriovonendebecker","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v108n1glovermustredelriovonendebecker","url":null,"abstract":"Inflation reached a 40-year high in 2021 and continued to climb in 2022. Record corporate profits received significant public attention as a potential explanation for high inflation. Although corporate profits and inflation do not have a direct accounting relationship, inflation is directly affected by growth in the markup, or the ratio between the price a firm charges and the firm’s current marginal cost of production. Thus, the sum of the growth in the marginal cost of production and the growth in the markup is the inflation in a firm’s price. Markups can change over time for many reasons, including firms’ expectations for their marginal costs in the future.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84540451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-01DOI: 10.18651/er/v108n1glovermustredelriopollard
Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Ŕıo, Emily Pollard
. The analysis in this paper was
． 本文的分析是
{"title":"Lifetime Earnings Differences across Black and White Individuals: Years Worked Matter","authors":"Andrew Glover, José Mustre-del-Ŕıo, Emily Pollard","doi":"10.18651/er/v108n1glovermustredelriopollard","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v108n1glovermustredelriopollard","url":null,"abstract":". The analysis in this paper was","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"54 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72469704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-17DOI: 10.18651/er/v107n4gulatismith
Chaitri Gulati, A. L. Smith
Chaitri Gulati is an assistant economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. A. Lee Smith is a vice president and economist at the bank. This article is on the bank’s website at www.KansasCityFed.org The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet more than doubled to nearly $9 trillion in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had previously employed LSAPs during the global financial crisis, the pace of asset purchases in March 2020 was unprecedented, as the FOMC sought to relieve severe strains in financial markets that threatened to halt the flow of credit to households and businesses. The Federal Reserve continued to purchase assets at a reduced pace through March 2022 to support the economic recovery. More recently, with inflation surging and the labor market tight, the FOMC has started to withdraw policy accommodation and has set in motion a plan to significantly reduce the balance sheet. However, the process of balance sheet reduction is likely to be challenging, as policymakers have much less experience with adjusting the balance sheet compared with their primary policy instrument, the federal funds rate. Indeed, they have engaged in quantitative tightening (QT), or balance sheet reduction, only once before. Moreover, it is not clear exactly how much accommodation the pandemic-era asset purchases have put in place, making it difficult for policymakers to judge how fast and how far to unwind them.
{"title":"The Evolving Role of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Effects and Challenges","authors":"Chaitri Gulati, A. L. Smith","doi":"10.18651/er/v107n4gulatismith","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v107n4gulatismith","url":null,"abstract":"Chaitri Gulati is an assistant economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. A. Lee Smith is a vice president and economist at the bank. This article is on the bank’s website at www.KansasCityFed.org The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet more than doubled to nearly $9 trillion in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs). Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had previously employed LSAPs during the global financial crisis, the pace of asset purchases in March 2020 was unprecedented, as the FOMC sought to relieve severe strains in financial markets that threatened to halt the flow of credit to households and businesses. The Federal Reserve continued to purchase assets at a reduced pace through March 2022 to support the economic recovery. More recently, with inflation surging and the labor market tight, the FOMC has started to withdraw policy accommodation and has set in motion a plan to significantly reduce the balance sheet. However, the process of balance sheet reduction is likely to be challenging, as policymakers have much less experience with adjusting the balance sheet compared with their primary policy instrument, the federal funds rate. Indeed, they have engaged in quantitative tightening (QT), or balance sheet reduction, only once before. Moreover, it is not clear exactly how much accommodation the pandemic-era asset purchases have put in place, making it difficult for policymakers to judge how fast and how far to unwind them.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"102 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78309609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-10DOI: 10.18651/er/v107n4cakirmelekdillonsmith
Nida Çakır Melek, Francis M. Dillon, A. L. Smith
{"title":"Can Higher Gasoline Prices Set Off an Inflationary Spiral?","authors":"Nida Çakır Melek, Francis M. Dillon, A. L. Smith","doi":"10.18651/er/v107n4cakirmelekdillonsmith","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v107n4cakirmelekdillonsmith","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89712932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-29DOI: 10.18651/er/v107n4rappaport
J. Rappaport
{"title":"Hybrid Working, Commuting Time, and the Coming Long-Term Boom in Home Construction","authors":"J. Rappaport","doi":"10.18651/er/v107n4rappaport","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v107n4rappaport","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84084021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-11DOI: 10.18651/er/v107n3sharma
Padma Sharma
among stock S&Ls relative to mutual S&Ls. infers from this for current policies.
股票储贷与互助储贷之间的关系。由此推断为现行政策。
{"title":"Government Assistance and Moral Hazard: Evidence from the Savings and Loan Crisis","authors":"Padma Sharma","doi":"10.18651/er/v107n3sharma","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v107n3sharma","url":null,"abstract":"among stock S&Ls relative to mutual S&Ls. infers from this for current policies.","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79123925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-14DOI: 10.18651/er/v107n3lusompasattiraju
Amaze Lusompa, S. Sattiraju
{"title":"Cutting-Edge Methods Did Not Improve Inflation Forecasting during the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Amaze Lusompa, S. Sattiraju","doi":"10.18651/er/v107n3lusompasattiraju","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v107n3lusompasattiraju","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85521920","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.18651/er/v107n3bundicksmith
Brent H. Bundick, A. L. Smith
Brent Bundick is a senior research and policy advisor and A. Lee Smith is a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Logan Hotz, a research associate at the bank, helped prepare the article. This article is on the bank’s website at www.KansasCityFed.org On March 15, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate—its primary policy tool—to its effective lower bound in response to the pandemic-induced contraction in economic activity. At the same time, the FOMC began engaging in large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) and provided forward guidance about the future path of the funds rate. Both LSAPs and forward guidance are less conventional tools that the FOMC also deployed to combat the Great Recession of 2007–09. Although the Great Recession and pandemic crisis were driven by very different factors, policymakers in both periods looked to LSAPs and forward guidance to help stabilize financial markets and promote maximum employment and price stability. In theory, LSAPs support the economy by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and improving the flow of credit to households and firms. However, policymakers and economists have yet to reach a consensus on how effective LSAPs are in providing accommodation and improving macroeconomic outcomes. One common approach to measuring the effectiveness of these tools is to study how financial markets respond to announced changes in LSAPs and forward guidance. But the market responses to these tools can be difficult to disentangle because announced changes in LSAPs often coincide with
{"title":"Evaluating Quantitative Easing: The Importance of Accounting for Forward Guidance","authors":"Brent H. Bundick, A. L. Smith","doi":"10.18651/er/v107n3bundicksmith","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18651/er/v107n3bundicksmith","url":null,"abstract":"Brent Bundick is a senior research and policy advisor and A. Lee Smith is a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Logan Hotz, a research associate at the bank, helped prepare the article. This article is on the bank’s website at www.KansasCityFed.org On March 15, 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate—its primary policy tool—to its effective lower bound in response to the pandemic-induced contraction in economic activity. At the same time, the FOMC began engaging in large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) and provided forward guidance about the future path of the funds rate. Both LSAPs and forward guidance are less conventional tools that the FOMC also deployed to combat the Great Recession of 2007–09. Although the Great Recession and pandemic crisis were driven by very different factors, policymakers in both periods looked to LSAPs and forward guidance to help stabilize financial markets and promote maximum employment and price stability. In theory, LSAPs support the economy by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and improving the flow of credit to households and firms. However, policymakers and economists have yet to reach a consensus on how effective LSAPs are in providing accommodation and improving macroeconomic outcomes. One common approach to measuring the effectiveness of these tools is to study how financial markets respond to announced changes in LSAPs and forward guidance. But the market responses to these tools can be difficult to disentangle because announced changes in LSAPs often coincide with","PeriodicalId":51713,"journal":{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82801565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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