Miaojie Yu, Peking University: This paper analyzes ASEAN banking regulation by applying the supervisory and regulatory framework of the European Union, which has a more advanced integrated financial system. The comparison focuses on four issues— microprudential regulation, macroprudential regulation, resolution capacity and deposit insurance, and financial safety net for liquidity support—and comes up with detailed recommendations for each issue that are innovative and practical. For example, one suggestion is that the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) could perform the same functions of the EU Financial Stability Board in coordinating each national supervisory agency, and being a focal point for integrated supervision.
{"title":"Comments on A Framework for Regional Banking Regulation in ASEAN","authors":"Miaojie Yu","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00793","url":null,"abstract":"Miaojie Yu, Peking University: This paper analyzes ASEAN banking regulation by applying the supervisory and regulatory framework of the European Union, which has a more advanced integrated financial system. The comparison focuses on four issues— microprudential regulation, macroprudential regulation, resolution capacity and deposit insurance, and financial safety net for liquidity support—and comes up with detailed recommendations for each issue that are innovative and practical. For example, one suggestion is that the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) could perform the same functions of the EU Financial Stability Board in coordinating each national supervisory agency, and being a focal point for integrated supervision.","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"126-127"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42067475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper addresses the importance of human capital accumulation in emerging economies under the recent accelerated automation, by conceptualizing the mechanism of possible growth slowdown caused by short-age of suitable human capital, and by comparing emerging Asian economies with various relevant indices. The paper redefines the so-called middle-income trap argument into its new version (MIT 2.0) under the recent wave of new industrialization, focusing on the increasing gap between changing employment circumstances and the insufficient speed of high-skilled human capital accumulation. The recent wave of automation makes it difficult for Asian countries to continue their high performance through the conventional catch-up and labor-intensive type industrialization strategy. Although automation will generally bring about a decrease in traditional labor demand, huge new labor demands will be created through productivity improvement, further capital accumulation, and the emergence of new tasks stimulated by the automation, according to the paper. The paper emphasizes the importance for accelerating human capital accumulation suitable for information and communi-cation technology (ICT). The part of paper indices automation secondary and tertiary of high-skilled occupation, ICT development conclusion
{"title":"Comments on The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia","authors":"Fumiharu Mineo","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00785","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses the importance of human capital accumulation in emerging economies under the recent accelerated automation, by conceptualizing the mechanism of possible growth slowdown caused by short-age of suitable human capital, and by comparing emerging Asian economies with various relevant indices. The paper redefines the so-called middle-income trap argument into its new version (MIT 2.0) under the recent wave of new industrialization, focusing on the increasing gap between changing employment circumstances and the insufficient speed of high-skilled human capital accumulation. The recent wave of automation makes it difficult for Asian countries to continue their high performance through the conventional catch-up and labor-intensive type industrialization strategy. Although automation will generally bring about a decrease in traditional labor demand, huge new labor demands will be created through productivity improvement, further capital accumulation, and the emergence of new tasks stimulated by the automation, according to the paper. The paper emphasizes the importance for accelerating human capital accumulation suitable for information and communi-cation technology (ICT). The part of paper indices automation secondary and tertiary of high-skilled occupation, ICT development conclusion","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"60-61"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44779435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tadashi Ito, Toshiyuki Matsuura, Chih‐hai Yang, A. Obashi, Kozo Kiyota
One of the contributions of this paper is the creation of unique panel data by combining Chinese Custom Trade data, China’s An-nual Survey of Industrial Firms, Toyo Keizai’s Overseas Japanese Companies, and Tokyo Stock Research data by identifying both parent and affiliated firms for seven years from 2000 to 2006. Adopting a discrete-time hazard model used by Hess and Persson (2012), the authors lead to a conclusion that firms in agglomerated regions with more foreign affiliates shorten its duration, while small and medium-sized (SME) firms import for a longer duration. My first comment is on the use of Toyo Keizai’s Overseas Japanese Companies. These data provide the year of establishment of the FDI company. However, the paper does not use this establishment year data for further analysis. The behavior of FDI companies can de-pend on the year of establishment year, especially with regard to survival analysis. The behavior of FDI companies founded in 1990 and in 2000 must be different. My second comment is the period coverage. There is similar survival analysis for FDI and trade nexus that addresses much longer periods. For example, Clausing (2000) used data for 18 years from 1977 to 1994, and Head and Ries (2001) used 25 years of data from 1966 to 1990. This paper uses a much shorter period—seven years from 2000 to 2006. Is this period setting long enough to assert that this conclusion is valid? In addition, it focuses on the negative sign of coefficients of important explanatory variables such as Diff, Upstream, Process , and Exports , and the positive signs of variables such as Alabor, KL-ratio, Agg-local-r , and Plarge . It may be more informative to include in the analysis things such as how many years it takes to reduce 50 percent or 80 percent reduction of intermediate imports. Nevertheless, this paper creates fine, rich parent-affiliate panel data derived from four dif-ferent databases. The framework of analysis is compact and
{"title":"Comments on Revisiting Complementarity between Japanese FDI and the Import of Intermediate Goods: Agglomeration Effects and Parent-firm Heterogeneity","authors":"Tadashi Ito, Toshiyuki Matsuura, Chih‐hai Yang, A. Obashi, Kozo Kiyota","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00791","url":null,"abstract":"One of the contributions of this paper is the creation of unique panel data by combining Chinese Custom Trade data, China’s An-nual Survey of Industrial Firms, Toyo Keizai’s Overseas Japanese Companies, and Tokyo Stock Research data by identifying both parent and affiliated firms for seven years from 2000 to 2006. Adopting a discrete-time hazard model used by Hess and Persson (2012), the authors lead to a conclusion that firms in agglomerated regions with more foreign affiliates shorten its duration, while small and medium-sized (SME) firms import for a longer duration. My first comment is on the use of Toyo Keizai’s Overseas Japanese Companies. These data provide the year of establishment of the FDI company. However, the paper does not use this establishment year data for further analysis. The behavior of FDI companies can de-pend on the year of establishment year, especially with regard to survival analysis. The behavior of FDI companies founded in 1990 and in 2000 must be different. My second comment is the period coverage. There is similar survival analysis for FDI and trade nexus that addresses much longer periods. For example, Clausing (2000) used data for 18 years from 1977 to 1994, and Head and Ries (2001) used 25 years of data from 1966 to 1990. This paper uses a much shorter period—seven years from 2000 to 2006. Is this period setting long enough to assert that this conclusion is valid? In addition, it focuses on the negative sign of coefficients of important explanatory variables such as Diff, Upstream, Process , and Exports , and the positive signs of variables such as Alabor, KL-ratio, Agg-local-r , and Plarge . It may be more informative to include in the analysis things such as how many years it takes to reduce 50 percent or 80 percent reduction of intermediate imports. Nevertheless, this paper creates fine, rich parent-affiliate panel data derived from four dif-ferent databases. The framework of analysis is compact and","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"109-110"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46321186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Debin Ma, London School of Economics and Political Science: By linking the new ongoing literature on the economic impact of automation with that of the middleincome trap the paper meshes two related but distinct lines of study to come up with an insightful overview paper. This paper discusses everything at an extremely general level because it covers a vast array of countries (mostly in Asia) and draws on a wide set of relevant indicators mostly from secondary sources.
马（Debin Ma），伦敦政治经济学院（London School of Economics and Political Science）：通过将正在进行的关于自动化对经济影响的新文献与中等收入陷阱的文献联系起来，本文融合了两条相关但不同的研究线，得出了一篇富有洞察力的综述论文。本文从非常一般的层面讨论了一切，因为它涵盖了广泛的国家（主要是亚洲国家），并借鉴了一系列主要来自次要来源的相关指标。
{"title":"Comments on The Middle-Income Trap 2.0: The Increasing Role of Human Capital in the Age of Automation and Implications for Developing Asia","authors":"Debin Ma","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00784","url":null,"abstract":"Debin Ma, London School of Economics and Political Science: By linking the new ongoing literature on the economic impact of automation with that of the middleincome trap the paper meshes two related but distinct lines of study to come up with an insightful overview paper. This paper discusses everything at an extremely general level because it covers a vast array of countries (mostly in Asia) and draws on a wide set of relevant indicators mostly from secondary sources.","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"59-59"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/asep_a_00784","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45385331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper provides an excellent overview of many aspects of China’s mobile payments sector. In a relatively short time this sector has developed from almost scratch to one of the most advanced in the world. In addition, the paper utilizes measures of digital financial inclusion (Wang et al. 2019) to assess several aspects of Chinese households’ behavior and, for example, risk-sharing. Section 2 is interesting in the way it recounts the history of China’s mobile payment in-dustry. It recounts the rapid development of the industry, especially during the past five to six years. In addition, the network effects described in Sections 2 and 3 highlight an interesting organic development of a virtual duopoly in the Chinese mobile payment in-dustry. In addition, they highlight how regulation—or, more precisely, lack of it—has al-lowed Chinese companies to innovate at a rapid pace and start utilizing novel technologies quickly. In other markets, payment innovations have been often much slower. In some ways China has also been able to leap-frog other, obsolete technologies, having started ini-tially from a relatively low base. Finally, quite apparently Chinese consumers have been quite willing to adopt such technologies, as they have made, for example, transactions eas-ier and more convenient. At the same time, there are other countries in Europe, such as in Scandinavia and the Baltic countries, that have also progressed quite far in the use of electronic payments.
{"title":"Comments on Mobile Payment in China: Practice and Its Effects","authors":"I. Korhonen","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00780","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00780","url":null,"abstract":"The paper provides an excellent overview of many aspects of China’s mobile payments sector. In a relatively short time this sector has developed from almost scratch to one of the most advanced in the world. In addition, the paper utilizes measures of digital financial inclusion (Wang et al. 2019) to assess several aspects of Chinese households’ behavior and, for example, risk-sharing. Section 2 is interesting in the way it recounts the history of China’s mobile payment in-dustry. It recounts the rapid development of the industry, especially during the past five to six years. In addition, the network effects described in Sections 2 and 3 highlight an interesting organic development of a virtual duopoly in the Chinese mobile payment in-dustry. In addition, they highlight how regulation—or, more precisely, lack of it—has al-lowed Chinese companies to innovate at a rapid pace and start utilizing novel technologies quickly. In other markets, payment innovations have been often much slower. In some ways China has also been able to leap-frog other, obsolete technologies, having started ini-tially from a relatively low base. Finally, quite apparently Chinese consumers have been quite willing to adopt such technologies, as they have made, for example, transactions eas-ier and more convenient. At the same time, there are other countries in Europe, such as in Scandinavia and the Baltic countries, that have also progressed quite far in the use of electronic payments.","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"19-20"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/asep_a_00780","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47903134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper’s main objective is to examine the default rate in different groups of workers in South Korea. The maintained hypothesis is that the loan default rate is higher for the self-employed than the non-self-employed. The default rate is related to borrowers’ characteristics, loan types (unsecured, non-mortgage secured, and mortgages), and risk premiums. The authors define the risk premium as the interest spread between the interest charged by the purpose of borrowing, or by risk assessment (from credit rating agency), and the cost of fund index. Defaults are defined as loans overdue for more than three months. Bank of Korea provides Korea Consumer Credit Panel data from 2011:Q1 to 2017:Q2. The average debt of self-employed borrowers is three times larger than of the non-self-employed. The authors use a dynamic probit model with correlated random effects to avoid excessive standard errors and a biased estimator due to heterogeneity of observations over time. In their model esti-mation, there are 8.9 million observations: 7.9 million non-self-employed, and 923,985 self-employed. It is possible that the authors may obtain the empirical results that are highly overwhelmed by the enormous size of salary workers, which is more than eight times the number of self-employed workers. Loan size varying smallest largest loan size. The amount of loans should have been utilized directly without into the index. The actual loan size would provide more variations of the explanatory variable, rather than using a crude scale 1–10
{"title":"Comments on Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea","authors":"B. Nidhiprabha, Thammasat","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00787","url":null,"abstract":"The paper’s main objective is to examine the default rate in different groups of workers in South Korea. The maintained hypothesis is that the loan default rate is higher for the self-employed than the non-self-employed. The default rate is related to borrowers’ characteristics, loan types (unsecured, non-mortgage secured, and mortgages), and risk premiums. The authors define the risk premium as the interest spread between the interest charged by the purpose of borrowing, or by risk assessment (from credit rating agency), and the cost of fund index. Defaults are defined as loans overdue for more than three months. Bank of Korea provides Korea Consumer Credit Panel data from 2011:Q1 to 2017:Q2. The average debt of self-employed borrowers is three times larger than of the non-self-employed. The authors use a dynamic probit model with correlated random effects to avoid excessive standard errors and a biased estimator due to heterogeneity of observations over time. In their model esti-mation, there are 8.9 million observations: 7.9 million non-self-employed, and 923,985 self-employed. It is possible that the authors may obtain the empirical results that are highly overwhelmed by the enormous size of salary workers, which is more than eight times the number of self-employed workers. Loan size varying smallest largest loan size. The amount of loans should have been utilized directly without into the index. The actual loan size would provide more variations of the explanatory variable, rather than using a crude scale 1–10","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"85-88"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43743466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista,University of the Philippines: In general, the paper has two basic themes and the author would be better off focusing on one of these themes—either focus on why there is a need or value to regional-level financial cooperation in financial regulatory policy, or focus on how the EU’s experience with financial cooperation and regulation is relevant to Asia and what lessons, if any, Asia can draw from the EU’s experience. The paper is quite descriptive and produces a list of things that need to be accomplished for regional financial regulation in Asia to occur but does not provide an overarching framework to analyze such nor is a road map provided as to which tasks ought to be prioritized, and so forth.
{"title":"Comments on A Framework for Regional Banking Regulation in ASEAN","authors":"M. Socorro","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00794","url":null,"abstract":"Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista,University of the Philippines: In general, the paper has two basic themes and the author would be better off focusing on one of these themes—either focus on why there is a need or value to regional-level financial cooperation in financial regulatory policy, or focus on how the EU’s experience with financial cooperation and regulation is relevant to Asia and what lessons, if any, Asia can draw from the EU’s experience. The paper is quite descriptive and produces a list of things that need to be accomplished for regional financial regulation in Asia to occur but does not provide an overarching framework to analyze such nor is a road map provided as to which tasks ought to be prioritized, and so forth.","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"127-130"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45915639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
By tracking the detailed product-level trade transactions for 929 Japanese affiliates in China, Ito, Matsuura, and Yang contribute to the classic literature that investigates the complementarity versus sub-stitutability of trade and FDI. To advance this question, the paper studies the duration of intermediate input imports by these Chinese affiliates between 2000 and 2006. Because the authors have taken on the arduous task of creating a data set that combines four different sources, they illuminate a number of interesting relationships that are generally obscured by firm efforts to hide their proprietary actions from view. The key question posed by this paper is: How is the duration of intermediate input import by Chinese affiliates shaped by product, firm-level, and national considerations? Thanks to the paper’s careful data effort, much of the paper’s novelty lies in its ability to relate this question to the Japanese parent firms’ characteristics and global footprints. Most notably, the paper shows that the duration of affiliate import of intermediate inputs was shorter when the Japanese parent firm was larger (as measured by employment), had a larger global network of affiliates, or had longer experience operating as a multinational. Although this inquiry piques the reader’s interest in this question, however, the generaliz-ability of the results are called into question by the uniqueness of the period of estimation, 2000–06, which lies solidly in the interval of China’s accession to the WTO and coincides with the period of rapid hollowing out of Japan’s manufacturing sector. 1 In this context, for Japanese industries relocating to China, the main question was sequencing. Firms could move everything at once, or start assembly early on, using imported inputs that were later replaced by new suppliers. To the extent that Japan’s affiliates in China were initiating operations that were replacing their predecessor operations in Japan, the duration analysis reveals the product trades that were most quickly relocated. Intuitively, the paper shows
{"title":"Comments on Revisiting Complementarity between Japanese FDI and the Import of Intermediate Goods: Agglomeration Effects and Parent-firm Heterogeneity","authors":"Deborah L. Swenson","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00790","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00790","url":null,"abstract":"By tracking the detailed product-level trade transactions for 929 Japanese affiliates in China, Ito, Matsuura, and Yang contribute to the classic literature that investigates the complementarity versus sub-stitutability of trade and FDI. To advance this question, the paper studies the duration of intermediate input imports by these Chinese affiliates between 2000 and 2006. Because the authors have taken on the arduous task of creating a data set that combines four different sources, they illuminate a number of interesting relationships that are generally obscured by firm efforts to hide their proprietary actions from view. The key question posed by this paper is: How is the duration of intermediate input import by Chinese affiliates shaped by product, firm-level, and national considerations? Thanks to the paper’s careful data effort, much of the paper’s novelty lies in its ability to relate this question to the Japanese parent firms’ characteristics and global footprints. Most notably, the paper shows that the duration of affiliate import of intermediate inputs was shorter when the Japanese parent firm was larger (as measured by employment), had a larger global network of affiliates, or had longer experience operating as a multinational. Although this inquiry piques the reader’s interest in this question, however, the generaliz-ability of the results are called into question by the uniqueness of the period of estimation, 2000–06, which lies solidly in the interval of China’s accession to the WTO and coincides with the period of rapid hollowing out of Japan’s manufacturing sector. 1 In this context, for Japanese industries relocating to China, the main question was sequencing. Firms could move everything at once, or start assembly early on, using imported inputs that were later replaced by new suppliers. To the extent that Japan’s affiliates in China were initiating operations that were replacing their predecessor operations in Japan, the duration analysis reveals the product trades that were most quickly relocated. Intuitively, the paper shows","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"107-108"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43895072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kwanho Shin, Korea University: As of the end of 2018, the ratio of household debt to GDP was 91.9 percent in Korea, much higher than in the United States or Japan. The household debt problem has been singled out as the most important threat to the stability of the financial system in Korea. Nevertheless, stress tests run by the Bank of Korea and other authorities conclude that financial intermediaries are resilient against even quite pessimistic scenarios. This paper, by investigating the factors behind the loan defaults of borrowers classified by their employment status, attempts to examine how fragile the financial system of Korea is.
▽高丽大学教授申宽浩=以2018年末为基准，韩国家庭债务与GDP的比率为91.9%，比美国和日本高得多。家庭债务问题被认为是韩国金融体系稳定的最大威胁。然而，韩国央行(Bank of Korea)和其他权威机构进行的压力测试得出的结论是，金融中介机构即使在相当悲观的情况下也能保持弹性。本文通过对按就业状况分类的借款人贷款违约背后的因素进行调查，试图检验韩国金融体系的脆弱性。
{"title":"Comments on Default Probability by Employment Status in South Korea","authors":"Kwanho Shin","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00788","url":null,"abstract":"Kwanho Shin, Korea University: As of the end of 2018, the ratio of household debt to GDP was 91.9 percent in Korea, much higher than in the United States or Japan. The household debt problem has been singled out as the most important threat to the stability of the financial system in Korea. Nevertheless, stress tests run by the Bank of Korea and other authorities conclude that financial intermediaries are resilient against even quite pessimistic scenarios. This paper, by investigating the factors behind the loan defaults of borrowers classified by their employment status, attempts to examine how fragile the financial system of Korea is.","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"88-89"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47343607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper measures total factor productivity (TFP) of Japanese manufacturing and service firms, most of which were small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), before and after the year 2000. The year was chosen as it was the timing around the implementation of the Basic Law for the Formation of an Advanced Information and Communication Network Society (2000), the launch of the e-Japan initiative (2001) and the rapid rise in information and communications technology (ICT) adoption among Japanese households and SMEs. By dividing the time around the year, the paper aims to measure the impacts of “ICT revolution” on productivity of Japanese firms. The paper finds that TFP rose across the studied sectors, although there was only slight improvement in some, such as finance and insurance, and leasing. It also found that ICT product manufacturing firms achieved much more productivity growth than those in the ICT service sectors did. The paper addresses an important issue, as TFP growth is the major source of economic growth in the long run. Thus, it is good news that Japanese firms in many sectors have achieved positive TFP growth. I am not convinced, however, that the source of the TFP growth could be attributed to ICT adoption and usage among Japanese firms, as appears to be claimed by the authors. This is because the paper tries to measure the impacts of the “ICT revolution” without using any variables directly related to ICT. This is like Hamlet without the prince! To make such a claim, the paper needs to include a variable that could proxy “ICT capital,” as in Jorgenson al. Otherwise, we cannot know what actually contributed to TFP growth as there were many important events around the year 2000 that could affect TFP. the of Information the of China to the WTO in 2001, the United States’ dot-com bubble burst in because TFP “technol-ogy,”
{"title":"Comments on Total Factor Productivity Changes in Japanese Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in 1982–2016: Suggestive Indications of an IT Revolution?","authors":"Somkiat Tangkitvanich","doi":"10.1162/asep_a_00782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/asep_a_00782","url":null,"abstract":"The paper measures total factor productivity (TFP) of Japanese manufacturing and service firms, most of which were small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), before and after the year 2000. The year was chosen as it was the timing around the implementation of the Basic Law for the Formation of an Advanced Information and Communication Network Society (2000), the launch of the e-Japan initiative (2001) and the rapid rise in information and communications technology (ICT) adoption among Japanese households and SMEs. By dividing the time around the year, the paper aims to measure the impacts of “ICT revolution” on productivity of Japanese firms. The paper finds that TFP rose across the studied sectors, although there was only slight improvement in some, such as finance and insurance, and leasing. It also found that ICT product manufacturing firms achieved much more productivity growth than those in the ICT service sectors did. The paper addresses an important issue, as TFP growth is the major source of economic growth in the long run. Thus, it is good news that Japanese firms in many sectors have achieved positive TFP growth. I am not convinced, however, that the source of the TFP growth could be attributed to ICT adoption and usage among Japanese firms, as appears to be claimed by the authors. This is because the paper tries to measure the impacts of the “ICT revolution” without using any variables directly related to ICT. This is like Hamlet without the prince! To make such a claim, the paper needs to include a variable that could proxy “ICT capital,” as in Jorgenson al. Otherwise, we cannot know what actually contributed to TFP growth as there were many important events around the year 2000 that could affect TFP. the of Information the of China to the WTO in 2001, the United States’ dot-com bubble burst in because TFP “technol-ogy,”","PeriodicalId":52020,"journal":{"name":"Asian Economic Papers","volume":"19 1","pages":"38-39"},"PeriodicalIF":9.7,"publicationDate":"2020-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43519638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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