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When Poverty Reduction Meets Democracy: An Investigation into the Use of  Different Evaluation Methods for Assessing the Effectiveness of  a Social Program* 当减贫遇到民主:对评估社会项目有效性的不同评估方法的使用的调查*
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00850
Peng Zhan, Shi Li, Yangyang Shen, Xiaobing Wang
Abstract This paper evaluates the minimum living standard guarantee program (Dibao) in rural China using several methods including the income approach, the multidimensional poverty approach, and a proxy means test approach. We find that the targeting accuracy of the program appears greater the more comprehensive the evaluation method used—but all these methods find low levels of targeting accuracy. Because Dibao fund allocation is largely decided by the villagers, who take a more holistic view in selecting “poor” households than the various evaluation methods, we argue that the low targeting efficacy may be due to the lack of comprehensive evaluation method, as opposed to the low targeting of the program itself. This paper argues that the community-based targeting used by the Dibao program may be a better way to combat poverty in many developing countries, as it requires less administrative capacity and overcomes the difficulties of identifying poor households that qualify for assistance.
摘要本文采用收入法、多维贫困法和代理经济状况调查法对中国农村最低生活保障计划进行了评估。我们发现,使用的评估方法越全面,程序的瞄准精度就越高,但所有这些方法的瞄准精度都很低。由于地堡的资金分配在很大程度上是由村民决定的,他们在选择“贫困”户时比各种评估方法更具整体性,我们认为,低的针对性效果可能是由于缺乏综合评估方法,而不是项目本身的低针对性。本文认为,迪宝计划使用的基于社区的目标可能是许多发展中国家消除贫困的更好方法,因为它需要较少的行政能力,并克服了确定有资格获得援助的贫困家庭的困难。
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引用次数: 0
East Asian Production Networks Go Beyond the Gravity Prediction 东亚生产网络超越重力预测
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00852
M. Ando, F. Kimura, Kenta Yamanouchi
Abstract This paper provides empirical evidence that supports the continuing importance of machinery international production networks (IPNs) in East Asia. We first confirm their robustness and resilience, even during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, as well as the significance of East Asian countries as suppliers of machinery final products and parts and components for the world. Then, we demonstrate how deeply East Asian countries are committed to machinery IPNs by applying a gravity equation to pre-pandemic bilateral machinery trade and comparing actual values with fitted values of the estimated equation. The gravity estimation exercise indicates that machinery trade is basically regional—within Factory Asia, Factory North America, and Factory Europe—but Factory Asia also has strong inter-regional linkages. It also verifies that ASEAN has played an important role in Factory Asia, going far beyond the gravity prediction, for the development of machinery IPNs.
摘要本文提供了实证证据,支持机械国际生产网络在东亚的持续重要性。我们首先确认了它们的稳健性和韧性,即使在冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)大流行期间也是如此,以及东亚国家作为世界机械最终产品和零部件供应商的重要性。然后,我们通过将引力方程应用于疫情前的双边机械贸易,并将实际值与估计方程的拟合值进行比较,展示了东亚国家对机械IPN的承诺程度。重力估计表明,机械贸易基本上是区域性的——在亚洲工厂、北美工厂和欧洲工厂内——但亚洲工厂也有强大的区域间联系。它还验证了东盟在亚洲工厂对机械IPN的发展发挥了重要作用,远远超出了重力预测。
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引用次数: 4
Premature Deindustrialization Risk in Asian Latecomer Developing Economies 亚洲后发经济体的过早去工业化风险
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-09 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00851
Hiroyuki Taguchi, Yuta Tsukada
Abstract This study examines the risk of premature deindustrialization in latecomer developing countries in Asia, focusing on their manufacturing output ratio. Diverging from the literature that treats Asian economies as a group with comparative advantages in manufacturing, this empirical analysis adopts the latecomer index to demonstrate downward shifts in the latecomers’ manufacturing–income relationship, implying a premature deindustrialization risk. Furthermore, it shows that the risk is higher for manufacturing trade-deficit countries (compared with trade-surplus countries) and for South Asian countries (compared with Southeast Asian countries). Therefore, Asian economies should improve their logistics performance for greater global value chain participation to avoid premature deindustrialization.
摘要本研究考察了亚洲后发发展中国家过早去工业化的风险,重点关注其制造业产出率。与将亚洲经济体视为具有制造业比较优势的群体的文献不同,本实证分析采用后发者指数来证明后发者的制造业-收入关系发生了向下的变化,这意味着过早的去工业化风险。此外,研究表明,制造业贸易逆差国(与贸易顺差国相比)和南亚国家(与东南亚国家相比)的风险更高。因此,亚洲经济体应提高物流绩效,以促进全球价值链的参与,避免过早去工业化。
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引用次数: 7
Comments and Discussion 评论和讨论
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.1162/asep.2005.4.2.128
Kathryn J. Edin, H. L. Shaefer, D. Schanzenbach
Willim Poole: Mislikin's paper provides a thorough examination of efficient-markets theory and many useful ideas on its implications for macro models and monetary policy. His empirical results replicate and extend previous work on efficient markets. His work is careful and thorough. As far as I can see from reading the paper, he has been extremely careful in his treatment of the data and in his statistical analysis. Mishkin's empirical work uncovers only one puzzle. In equation 29, when he regresses the return from holding common stocks on the threemonth treasury bill rate, he finds a negative coefficient rather than the positive one predicted by the theory. The efficient-markets model, of course, predicts that, except for differences in returns due to risk and liquidity premiums, returns should be equalized on all assets; but Mishkin's equation comes up with the result that when the treasury bill rate is high, the rate of return expected on stocks is low. To understand that equation, suppose that the bill rate is relatively high at 8 percent. The quarterly rate of return on bills in decimal form is then 0.02. A bill rate of 0.02 times the regression coefficient of about -5.0 is -0.10. Add to this figure the constant term in the equation of 0.08, and a per quarter expected return is obtained from holding common stocks of -0.02, or -8 percent per year. Similarly, when the bill rate is relatively low-say 4 percent per year or 0.01 per quarter-the expected return on common stock is 0.03 per quarter or 12 percent at an annual rate. The puzzle is how the expected return on common stocks can be negative when treasury bills earing a positive rate of return can always be held. A possible explanation for this result depends on the existence of transactions costs. The time series of changes in the bill rate displays
Willim Poole:Mislikin的论文对有效市场理论进行了深入的研究,并就其对宏观模型和货币政策的影响提出了许多有用的想法。他的实证结果复制并扩展了以前关于有效市场的工作。他的工作认真细致。据我阅读这篇论文所知,他在处理数据和统计分析时非常谨慎。米什金的实证工作只揭示了一个难题。在方程29中,当他将持有普通股的回报率回归到三个月国库券利率时,他发现了一个负系数,而不是该理论预测的正系数。当然,有效市场模型预测,除了风险和流动性溢价导致的回报差异外,所有资产的回报都应该相等;但米什金的等式得出的结果是,当国债利率高时,股票的预期回报率就很低。为了理解这个等式,假设账单利率相对较高,为8%。以十进制表示的季度票据回报率为0.02。0.02倍于约-5.0的回归系数的票据率为-0.10。再加上方程中的常数项0.08,持有普通股的季度预期回报率为-0.02,即每年-8%。同样,当票据利率相对较低时,比如每年4%或每季度0.01,普通股的预期回报率为每季度0.03或按年利率计算为12%。令人困惑的是,当收益率为正的国库券总是可以持有时,普通股的预期回报率是如何为负的。对这一结果的可能解释取决于交易成本的存在。显示账单费率的时间序列变化
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引用次数: 0
Effects of the Minimum Wage on Small Firms in China: Spillover Effects from Large Firms* 中国最低工资对小企业的影响:来自大企业的溢出效应*
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00844
Qiaoyi Chen, Zhao Chen, Lin Guan
Abstract This study investigates how minimum wage affects small firms through spillover effects from large firms. Using firm-level panel data from Anhui Province in China, we find that after a minimum wage increase, small firms will reduce workers’ wages and create jobs due to the inflow of displaced workers from large firms. This spillover effect is larger for micro firms and private firms, where minimum wage compliance tends to be lower. We also find that high-tech small firms are more affected than low-tech ones because of their greater demand for skilled labor. Our findings not only highlight the unintended consequences of minimum wage on small firms in China, but also help to explain the ambiguous employment effects of minimum wage on the covered sector in developing countries.
摘要本研究调查了最低工资如何通过大企业的溢出效应影响小企业。利用中国安徽省的企业层面面板数据,我们发现,在提高最低工资后,由于大企业的流动工人流入,小企业会降低工人的工资并创造就业机会。这种溢出效应对微型企业和私营企业更大,因为它们的最低工资合规性往往较低。我们还发现,高科技小公司比低技术小公司受到的影响更大,因为它们对熟练劳动力的需求更大。我们的研究结果不仅突出了最低工资对中国小企业的意外后果,而且有助于解释最低工资对发展中国家覆盖部门的模糊就业影响。
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引用次数: 3
Stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies: Policy and Regulatory Challenges* 稳定币和中央银行数字货币:政策和监管挑战*
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00843
Barry Eichengreen, Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj
Abstract Stablecoins and central bank digital currencies are on the horizon in Asia, and in some cases have already arrived. This paper provides new analysis and a critique of the use case for both forms of digital currency. It provides time-varying estimates of devaluation risk for the leading stablecoin, Tether, using data from the futures market. It describes the formidable obstacles to widespread use of central bank digital currencies in cross-border transactions, the context in which their utility is arguably greatest. The bottom line is that significant uncertainties continue to dog the region's digital currency initiatives.
摘要稳定币和央行数字货币在亚洲即将出现,在某些情况下已经出现。本文对这两种形式的数字货币的用例进行了新的分析和批判。它利用期货市场的数据,对领先的稳定币Tether的贬值风险进行了时变估计。它描述了央行数字货币在跨境交易中广泛使用的巨大障碍,在这种情况下,数字货币的效用可以说是最大的。最重要的是,该地区的数字货币举措仍存在重大不确定性。
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引用次数: 5
Unconventional Monetary Policy through Open Market Operations: A Principal Component Analysis* 开放市场运作下的非常规货币政策:主成分分析*
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00842
Markus Heckel, K. Nishimura
Abstract This paper examines the unconventional monetary policies of the Bank of Japan from 2002 to 2019 with a focus on open market operations.  We apply a principal component analysis to investigate the complexity of monetary policy.  Our results identify four principal components that explain the variance of measures taken by the Bank of Japan and its operations of various facilities: asset purchase measures including Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs), and three different liquidity supply measures. Complexity differs substantially among different governorships of Fukui, Shirakawa (most complex), and Kuroda. We derive some conclusions from the increased complexity with implications for the economy.
摘要本文考察了日本央行2002年至2019年的非常规货币政策,重点是公开市场操作。  我们应用主成分分析来研究货币政策的复杂性。  我们的研究结果确定了四个主要组成部分,解释了日本银行及其各种设施运营所采取措施的差异:包括日本政府债券(JGB)、交易所交易基金(ETF)、日本房地产投资信托基金(J-REITs)在内的资产购买措施,以及三种不同的流动性供应措施。福井、白川(最复杂的)和黑田东彦的不同政府之间的复杂性差异很大。我们从对经济影响的复杂性增加中得出了一些结论。
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引用次数: 0
Frontier Technology,  Trade,  FDI,  and TFP in the Electrical and Electronic Industries: Exporting or Processing Trade?* 前沿技术、贸易、FDI与全要素生产率:出口贸易还是加工贸易?*
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00847
N. A. Khalifah
Abstract Does “openness” determine “catching-up” of establishments to frontier technology and total factor productivity (TFP) in Malaysia's electrical and electronic (E&E) industries? We contribute to this debate by applying a new measurement of processing trade intensity. Utilizing stochastic frontier analysis and Levinsohn and Pertrin (LP) TFP,  we investigate determinants of technical efficiency (TE) and TFP. The results show that processing trade intensity and not export intensity determines TE and TFP for the overall sample and subsample of foreign establishments. In the processing trade subsample, export intensity is negatively related to TE and unrelated to TFP, obtaining an unconventional result that exporters are inefficient and not associated with TFP. The results show that higher foreign ownership shares of establishments are negatively associated with LP TFP.
摘要“开放”是否决定了马来西亚电气电子行业企业对前沿技术和全要素生产率的“追赶”?我们采用了一种新的加工贸易强度衡量方法,为这场辩论作出了贡献。利用随机前沿分析和Levinsohn和Pertrin(LP)TFP,  我们研究了技术效率(TE)和TFP的决定因素。结果表明,加工贸易强度而非出口强度决定了外国企业总体样本和子样本的TE和TFP。在加工贸易子样本中,出口强度与TE呈负相关,与TFP无关,获得了出口商效率低下且与TFP无关联的非常规结果。研究结果表明,企业的外资持股比例越高,与LP TFP呈负相关。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating the Impact of Cumulative Rules of Origin on Trade Costs: An Application to Mega-regional Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region* 估算累积原产地规则对贸易成本的影响:应用于亚太地区的大型区域自由贸易协定*
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00846
Chul Chung, Innwon Park, Soonchan Park
Abstract We investigate the effects of free trade agreements (FTAs), focusing on the impact of cumulative rules of origin (ROO) on trade costs. Using a gravity regression model, we estimate the effect of various cumulative ROO systems on the measured trade costs. We apply these estimates to static and capital accumulation computable general equilibrium models to compare the effects of mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region—namely, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), and Free Trade Areas in the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). We find that mega-regional FTAs may not be a viable alternative to a multilateral trading system or bilateral FTAs unless less restrictive cumulative ROO are adopted. Successful FTAs depend on an appropriate cumulative ROO provision system rather than their membership expansion.
摘要我们研究了自由贸易协定的影响,重点是累积原产地规则对贸易成本的影响。使用重力回归模型,我们估计了各种累积ROO系统对测量贸易成本的影响。我们将这些估计应用于静态和资本积累可计算的一般均衡模型,以比较亚太地区大型区域自由贸易协定的影响,即区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)、全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定和亚太自贸区协定(FTAAP)。我们发现,除非采用限制性较小的累积ROO,否则大型区域自由贸易区可能不是多边贸易体系或双边自由贸易区的可行替代方案。自由贸易区的成功取决于一个适当的累积ROO提供系统,而不是其成员的扩大。
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引用次数: 1
Re-examining Gender Earning Differentials in Malaysian Manufacturing 重新审视马来西亚制造业中的性别收入差异
IF 9.7 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1162/asep_a_00845
J. Cheong, S. Narayanan, Jacqueline Lisa Fernandez
Abstract The manufacturing sector is a major avenue for female employment in the urban labor market in Malaysia. Only two studies, both published more than two decades ago, have examined gender earning differentials in this sector. Since then, the percentage of women being educated has increased, along with their participation rate, and several laws protecting their rights have also been passed, making it timely to re-examine the earnings gap. We do this by drawing on more recent data from a larger representative survey of manufacturing employees. The Blinder-Oaxaca technique, utilized in the previous two studies, was used to estimate the existing earnings gap and to decompose it to differences attributable to endowments, coefficients (traditionally viewed as subsuming discrimination), and the interaction between the two. We found a smaller gap than previously reported, with better female endowments helping to narrow the gap, and unexplained differences in coefficients being responsible for the remaining gap. The interaction effect was not statistically significant. Contrary to the earlier studies, the differential treatment of women in the manufacturing sector, rather than endowment differences, is hampering the equalization of earnings. This calls for newer approaches to closing the earnings gap.
摘要制造业是马来西亚城市劳动力市场中女性就业的主要途径。只有两项研究都发表在20多年前,研究了该行业的性别收入差异。从那时起,妇女受教育的比例和参与率都有所提高,而且还通过了几项保护她们权利的法律,这使得重新审视收入差距变得及时。我们通过引用一项更具代表性的制造业员工调查的最新数据来做到这一点。前两项研究中使用的Blinder Oaxaca技术用于估计现有的收入差距,并将其分解为归因于禀赋、系数(传统上被视为包含歧视)以及两者之间的相互作用的差异。我们发现,这一差距比之前报道的要小,更好的女性禀赋有助于缩小差距,而无法解释的系数差异是造成剩余差距的原因。交互作用没有统计学意义。与早期的研究相反,制造业对妇女的差别待遇,而不是禀赋差异,阻碍了收入的均衡。这就要求采取新的方法来缩小收入差距。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Asian Economic Papers
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