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Spatial Dynamic Effects in the Colombian Health System 哥伦比亚卫生系统的空间动态效应
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N92A07
Leonardo Rodriguez-Pineda, Andres Felipe Sanchez Saldarriaga, Helena María Cancelado Carretero
We seek to understand if spatial dynamics affect the population in social, economic and health terms. To carry out this study, we propose the following two stages. In the first stage we try to understand the causes of high infant mortality in rural areas in comparison to the urban areas based on literature and the changes made to the Colombian health model. The second stage is a spatial econometric analysis of the variables of interest, where the CEDE database of the Universidad de los Andes is utilized. The findings of this study confirm the importance of the inclusion of spatial effects, which is a sign that the health dynamics of populations are interrelated. This spatial interdependence corroborates the suggestion from literature where proposing policies coordinate the system and consider local and neighboring populations. Also, municipal administrations require the need to consider mechanisms of interlocution whilst working with their peers and allow these factors to be included in the planning of political measures taken that affect health conditions. Finally, we confirm differences between the rural and urban performance.
我们试图了解空间动态是否在社会、经济和健康方面影响人口。为了开展这项研究,我们提出了以下两个阶段。在第一阶段,我们试图根据文献和哥伦比亚卫生模式的变化,了解农村地区婴儿死亡率高于城市地区的原因。第二阶段是对感兴趣的变量进行空间计量经济学分析,其中利用了安第斯大学的CEDE数据库。这项研究的结果证实了纳入空间效应的重要性,这表明人口的健康动态是相互关联的。这种空间上的相互依赖证实了文献中的建议,即提出的政策要协调系统,并考虑当地和邻近的人口。此外,市政当局需要在与其同行合作时考虑对话机制,并允许将这些因素纳入影响健康状况的政治措施的规划中。最后,我们确认了城乡绩效之间的差异。
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引用次数: 0
On Argentina’s Currency Crisis of 2018 论2018年阿根廷货币危机
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N92A08
Ramon Castillo-Ponce, K. Lai
In this note, we discuss the Argentinian crisis initiated in 2018. We identify the roots and contributing factors and provide comments on what may develop going forward.
在本说明中,我们讨论了2018年开始的阿根廷危机。我们确定了根源和促成因素,并对未来可能发展的情况提出了意见。
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引用次数: 2
Sobre los determinantes de la sostenibilidad fiscal de los municipios en Colombia. El caso de Antioquia, 2008-2017. 哥伦比亚市政当局财政可持续性的决定因素。安蒂奥基亚案,2008-2017年。
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N92A06
Jorge Barrientos Marín, J. F. Quintero, M. Mendoza
En este trabajo estamos interesados en establecer los determinantes de la sostenibilidad fiscal, entre ellas si las reglas de gasto, la denominada Ley 617 de 2000 coadyuvo a la promocion de la sostenibilidad de las finanzas publicas en los 125 municipios del departamento de Antioquia (Colombia) en el periodo 2008-2017. Para esto explotamos las heterogeneidades observables entre los 125 municipios de Antioquia en el periodo 2008-2017, debido a la endogeneidad de variables como deuda y el numero de empresas usamos un estimador Hausman y Taylor. Nuestros resultados indican que la ley es efectiva en el aumento del ingreso tributario y el gasto de inversion, pero no es efectiva en cuanto disminuir el gasto en funcionamiento; otras variables de caracteristicas de municipio como el numero de empresas y el endeudamiento preexistente son explicativas y predictores del comportamiento de los ingresos tributarios, el gasto en funcionamiento y el gasto de inversion.
在这项工作中,我们有兴趣确定财政可持续性的决定因素,包括所谓的2000年第617号法律的支出规则是否有助于在2008-2017年期间促进哥伦比亚安蒂奥基亚省125个城市公共财政的可持续性。为此,我们利用了2008-2017年期间安蒂奥基亚125个城市之间可以观察到的异质性,这是由于债务和公司数量等变量的内生性,我们使用了豪斯曼和泰勒估计。我们的结果表明,该法律在增加税收和投资支出方面是有效的,但在减少运营支出方面则无效;城市特征的其他变量,如企业数量和先前存在的债务,是税收、运营支出和投资支出行为的解释和预测因素。
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引用次数: 0
El contexto de la trampa: análisis experimental de los determinantes de la honestidad en Buriticá 陷阱的背景:burictica中诚实决定因素的实验分析
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N92A01
A. Eslava, Estefanía García Luna
La trampa es una accion recurrente en el comportamiento de los individuos y produce altos costos en la sociedad. Esto ha motivado su estudio reciente dentro de la economia y otras ciencias sociales, con el fin de encontrar los factores que inciden en ella y asi tratar de mitigar sus efectos. Con este objetivo, la presente investigacion estudia la disposicion a la trampa en el municipio de Buritica (Antioquia, Colombia) a traves de un experimento economico que confirma la presencia de acciones deshonestas en las decisiones de los participantes; ademas, se hace un analisis de los determinantes de la misma a traves de un probit ordenado. El estudio revela que existe una relacion entre las decisiones de los individuos y el contexto en el que se desenvuelven, por lo que factores como la percepcion de riqueza, la confianza institucional y la victimizacion son determinantes. Esta investigacion contribuye asi a los estudios previos sobre la toma de decisiones economicas, los cuales contradicen el modelo clasico de la maximizacion de beneficios.
诱捕是个人行为中反复出现的行为,会给社会带来高昂的代价。这激发了他最近在经济学和其他社会科学领域的研究,以发现影响它的因素,从而试图减轻它的影响。为了实现这一目标,本研究通过一项经济实验研究了布里蒂卡市(哥伦比亚安蒂奥基亚)的诱捕倾向,该实验证实了参与者决策中存在不诚实行为;此外,我们还通过有序的概率对其行列式进行了分析。本研究的主要目的是评估个人的决定和他们所处的环境之间的关系,因此财富感知、制度信任和受害等因素是决定因素。因此,本研究有助于先前的经济决策研究,这些研究与传统的利润最大化模型相矛盾。
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引用次数: 1
Dinámicas e integración de los mercados financieros de los países del TLCAN 北美自由贸易协定国家金融市场的动态和一体化
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N92A03
Javier Emmanuel Anguiano Pita, Antonio Ruíz Porras
El objetivo de este articulo es estudiar las dinamicas del proceso de integracion de los mercados de valores gubernamentales, interbancarios, cambiarios y bursatiles de las economias del TLCAN. Para tal proposito, se emplea el modelo generalizado de factores comunes propuesto por Forni, Hallin, Lippi y Reichlin (2005) y series representativas de los rendimientos de los mercados analizados para el periodo comprendido entre enero de 1995 y diciembre de 2017. Los principales resultados sugieren que: 1) existen asimetrias en el tamano de los mercados, 2) hay evidencia de cambios estructurales, 3) existen factores comunes entre los mercados financieros, 4) los mercados tienen niveles de integracion diferenciados, y 5) los mercados cambiarios y bursatiles son los mas sensibles a los componentes comunes. Estos hallazgos pueden ser utiles para analizar la evolucion del TLCAN y para proponer politicas economicas y financieras regionales.
本文的目的是研究北美自由贸易协定经济体政府、银行间、外汇和证券市场一体化进程的动态。为此,使用了Forni、Hallin、Lippi和Reichlin(2005年)提出的通用因素广义模型以及1995年1月至2017年12月期间分析的市场收益率的代表性系列。主要结果表明:(1)市场规模存在不对称,(2)有结构变化的证据,(3)金融市场之间存在共同因素,(4)市场的一体化水平不同,以及(5)外汇和证券市场对共同组成部分最敏感。这些发现有助于分析北美自由贸易协定的演变,并提出区域经济和金融政策。
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引用次数: 1
Poniendo a prueba la teoría de la reproducción del capital cultural en Colombia. Caso de las artes escénicas, conciertos y cine 测试哥伦比亚文化资本再生产理论。表演艺术、音乐会和电影活动
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-24 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N92A04
Nora Elena Espinal Monsalve, Andrey David Ramos Ramírez, Luz Yadira Gómez Hernández
Tomando como referencia el enfoque teorico de la reproduccion social y la transferencia intergeneracional de capital cultural de Bourdieu, en este articulo se evalua el efecto causal de la participacion cultural de los jefes de hogar sobre la participacion cultural de los jovenes en teatro, danza u opera, conciertos y cine en Colombia. Utilizando los datos de la Encuesta de Consumo Cultural del 2014, se aplican tres metodologias: tratamientos endogenos, propensity score matching e inverse probability weighting. Los resultados aportan evidencia sobre la hipotesis de la transferencia intergeneracional del capital cultural, en la medida en que se observa que los jovenes que conviven en hogares con jefes de hogar que participan en las actividades analizadas, tienen mayores probabilidades de participar en esas mismas actividades. Concretamente, se encontro que cuando el jefe de hogar asiste a eventos de las artes escenicas, la probabilidad de que los jovenes en ese hogar tambien asistan crece entre 34,92% y 40,90%; en el caso de los conciertos el efecto es de entre 24,56% y 25,81%, mientras que para el cine varia entre 47,57% y 48,96%. Estos hallazgos pueden ser un insumo para disenar y orientar politicas que permitan seguir acortando las brechas de participacion cultural en el pais. Este es el primer estudio en probar la magnitud de esta teoria y verificarla empiricamente en America Latina.
本文以布迪厄文化资本的社会复制和代际转移的理论方法为参考,评估了户主文化参与对哥伦比亚青年在戏剧、舞蹈或歌剧、音乐会和电影中文化参与的因果影响。利用2014年文化消费调查的数据,采用了三种方法:内源治疗、倾向得分匹配和反向概率加权。结果提供了文化资本代际转移假设的证据,因为可以看出,与参与所分析活动的户主住在一起的年轻人更有可能参加同样的活动。具体而言,发现当户主参加表演艺术活动时,该家庭的年轻人也参加表演艺术活动的可能性在34.92%至40.90%之间;音乐会的影响在24.56%至25.81%之间,而电影的影响在47.57%至48.96%之间。这些发现可以为设计和指导进一步缩小该国文化参与差距的政策提供投入。这是第一项测试这一理论规模并在拉丁美洲进行实证验证的研究。
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引用次数: 1
El gasto fiscal de la guerra contra los portadores de drogas ilícitas: una aproximación para Colombia 打击非法药物携带者战争的财政支出:哥伦比亚的近似值
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-17 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N91A03
Isabel Gutiérrez, S. Tobón
Around the world, governments spend enormous amounts of public funds in controlling possession, manufacturing and trafficking of illicit drugs. These costs are usually difficult to observe, as they correspond to the opportunity cost of many bureaucrats involved in the process. In this paper, we estimate the expected cost per arrest for possession, manufacturing or trafficking of illicit drugs for the case of Colombia. We find that the expected cost of an arrest is roughly COP$11 million, hence the expected total cost associated with the 984,106 arrests carried out between 2001 and 2015 adds up to COP$10.6 billion. Also, we analyse whether these expenditures are justified by the control of international drug trafficking, crime associated with drug dealing in local markets or drug abuse deterrence. We conclude that none of these reasons justify such fiscal expenditures; rather, these seem to be explained by an issue of incentive compatibility in Colombian authorities.
在世界各地,各国政府花费大量公共资金控制非法药物的持有、制造和贩运。这些成本通常很难观察,因为它们与参与这一过程的许多官僚的机会成本相对应。在本文中,我们估计了哥伦比亚因持有、制造或贩运非法药物而每次逮捕的预期费用。我们发现,一次逮捕的预期成本约为缔约方会议1100万美元,因此,2001年至2015年期间进行的984106次逮捕的预计总成本总计106亿缔约方会议。此外,我们还分析了这些支出是否因控制国际贩毒、与当地市场毒品交易有关的犯罪或威慑药物滥用而合理。我们的结论是,这些理由都不足以证明这种财政支出是合理的;相反,这些似乎可以用哥伦比亚当局的激励相容性问题来解释。
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引用次数: 1
Diversificación productiva y cambio estructural en economías cerradas y abiertas 封闭和开放经济体的生产多样化和结构变化
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-17 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N91A01
C. H. Ortíz, Diana Marcela Jiménez, María Liliam Jaramillo
Productive diversification has been the main determinant of structural change of the economies. This hypothesis is analysed for nine countries under a relatively closed trade regime, and for nine Latin American countries under a relatively open trade regime with the United States. The equations of structural change that are tested are derived from a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model. The negative impact of productive diversification on the relative allocation of resources to the primary sector cannot be rejected for closed economies: greater diversification increases the relative productivity of manufacturing activities. The impact of a country’s comparative advantages on the allocation of resources to agriculture cannot be rejected: the relative agricultural productivity has a positive impact; the relative capital endowment has a negative impact; and the real exchange rate has a positive impact. In the last case, it is argued that low diversification induces a deterioration in the terms of trade, which favours specialization in primary activities.
生产多样化一直是经济结构变化的主要决定因素。这一假设针对相对封闭的贸易制度下的九个国家以及与美国相对开放的贸易制度中的九个拉丁美洲国家进行了分析。测试的结构变化方程是从多部门动态一般平衡模型中推导出来的。封闭经济体不能拒绝生产多样化对资源相对分配给初级部门的负面影响:更大的多样化提高了制造业活动的相对生产力。一个国家的比较优势对农业资源分配的影响不容忽视:相对农业生产力具有积极影响;相对资本禀赋具有负面影响;实际汇率具有积极影响。在最后一种情况下,有人认为,多样化程度低会导致贸易条件恶化,这有利于初级活动的专业化。
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引用次数: 3
Transmisión de los precios del arroz en Colombia y el mundo 哥伦比亚和世界大米价格的传播
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-17 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N91A05
Ricardo Troncoso-Sepúlveda
The aim of this paper is to analyse the spatial price transmission of rice in Colombia, emphasizing the impact of trade policies. For this purpose, a Markov-switching vector error correction model was used to model regime shifts in the relationship between domestic and international rice prices in Colombia and some control countries, from January 1996 to September 2018. The results reveal three price transmission regimes that coincide with internal trade policies and with the food crisis of 2007-2008. The high volatility regime was the most persistent, with an average duration of 15.4 months, a transition probability of 93 % and an adjustment speed of 0.24. In addition, during this regime, Colombia was less integrated into the international rice market. These results are relevant, since they constitute the application of a threshold methodology to the analysis of the transmission of agricultural prices and can be useful for the design of agrarian policies that contribute to the integration and competitiveness of the Colombian rice sector.
本文的目的是分析哥伦比亚大米价格的空间传导,强调贸易政策的影响。为此,使用马尔可夫切换矢量误差修正模型来模拟1996年1月至2018年9月期间哥伦比亚和一些对照国家国内和国际稻米价格关系的制度变化。研究结果揭示了与国内贸易政策和2007-2008年粮食危机相吻合的三种价格传导机制。高波动机制最为持久,平均持续时间为15.4个月,过渡概率为93%,调整速度为0.24。此外,在这一制度期间,哥伦比亚较少融入国际大米市场。这些结果是相关的,因为它们构成了对农业价格传导分析的一种阈值方法的应用,并可用于设计有助于哥伦比亚稻米部门一体化和竞争力的农业政策。
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引用次数: 5
Evaluación del Servicio Público de Empleo: sus efectos en la inserción laboral formal en el Área Metropolitana de Barranquilla, Colombia 公共就业服务评估:对哥伦比亚巴兰基亚大都会区正式就业的影响
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-17 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N91A07
Kenkin Morales-González, William Manjarrés de Ávila, Sadan de la Cruz Almanza
This article seeks to measure the effect of the Employment Public Service (SPE) on the probability of accessing formal employment in the metropolitan area of Barranquilla, Colombia. To achieve this objective, two sources of information are combined: the data on people who registered with the SPE in Barranquilla, and a survey of 400 people registered with the same service. With these data, an estimate of the average effect of the SPE is obtained through propensity score matching. The results show that participating in the services offered by the SPE increases the probability of getting formal employment by around 12 %. This study is of special importance for the design of public policies, as it identifies the effects of state intervention in employability in one of the most important cities in Colombia.
本文旨在衡量就业公共服务(SPE)对哥伦比亚巴兰基利亚大都市区获得正式就业机会的影响。为了实现这一目标,我们将两个信息来源结合起来:关于在Barranquilla的SPE注册的人的数据,以及对在同一服务注册的400人的调查。利用这些数据,通过倾向评分匹配获得SPE的平均效果估计。结果表明,参加SPE提供的服务,获得正式就业的可能性增加了12%左右。这项研究对公共政策的设计特别重要,因为它确定了哥伦比亚最重要的城市之一的国家干预对就业能力的影响。
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引用次数: 0
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