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On the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity demand in the manufacturing industry of Colombia 关于哥伦比亚制造业电力需求价格弹性的估计
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-12-26 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N88A05
J. Barrientos, E. Velilla, David Tobón-Orozco, F. Villada, J. López-Lezama
Abstract: This paper presents an estimation of the reaction of electricity demand to changes in price levels of forward contracts in the manufacturing industry of Colombia. To that end, a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model was developed, considering several economic activities at different voltage levels. The industrial sectors under study showed an electricity demand not significantly sensitive to price variations. However, the food and drink sectors, plastic and rubber manufacturing, as well as retail trade turned out to be more sensitive to price shocks than the chemical industry or textile manufacturing. Such inelasticity could be softened if information concerning prices and quantity demanded were of common knowledge, or if the forward curve were observable. Resumen En este articulo se presenta una estimacion de la reaccion de la demanda a niveles de precios de contratos forward de electricidad en la industria manufacturera de Colombia. Se desarrollo un modelo de vectores autorregresivos estructurales (SVAR) considerando varias actividades economicas a diferentes niveles de tension. Los sectores industriales bajo estudio no mostraron una demanda de electricidad significativamente sensible a variaciones de precios. Sin embargo, los sectores de alimentos y bebidas, caucho y plastico, asi como el sector comercial minorista resultaron ser mas sensibles a choques de precios que la industria quimica o el sector de manufactura de textiles. Dicha inelasticidad podria suavizarse si la informacion concerniente a precios y cantidades demandadas fuera de conocimiento comun, o si la curva forward pudiera ser observable.
摘要:本文估计了哥伦比亚制造业电力需求对远期合同价格水平变化的反应。为此,考虑到不同电压水平的几项经济活动,建立了一个结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型。正在研究的工业部门显示,电力需求对价格变化不太敏感。然而,食品和饮料部门、塑料和橡胶制造以及零售业对价格冲击的敏感性高于化工或纺织制造业。如果有关所需价格和数量的信息是常识,或者如果可以观察到前进曲线,则可以软化这种不弹性。摘要本文估计了哥伦比亚制造业对远期电力合同价格水平的需求反应。考虑到不同压力水平下的各种经济活动,建立了一个结构自回归向量模型。正在研究的工业部门对电力的需求对价格变化没有显着敏感。然而,食品和饮料、橡胶和塑料部门以及零售商业部门比化学工业或纺织制造业更容易受到价格冲击的影响。如果与价格和需求量有关的信息不为人所知,或者如果可以观察到前进曲线,这种不弹性可以得到缓解。
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引用次数: 6
Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012 公共支出与经济增长:1984-2012年哥伦比亚的区域分析
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-12-26 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N88A03
Jacobo Campo, Henry Mendoza
Resumen La literatura empirica presenta diversos resultados acerca del impacto que tiene el gasto publico sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) de los paises en general. Este articulo presenta evidencia sobre el impacto que tiene dicho gasto sobre el PIB en 24 departamentos de Colombia, durante el periodo 1984-2012. Ademas, se aplica una prueba de causalidad con datos de panel con el fin de determinar si la relacion se sustenta mediante el enfoque keynesiano o el enfoque wagneriano. A traves de un modelo de datos de panel cointegrado, se obtiene esta relacion y se estiman los coeficientes de la relacion de equilibrio de largo plazo. Los resultados muestran un efecto positivo y significativo del gasto publico primario sobre el PIB, lo cual va en la via del enfoque keynesiano y confirma la hipotesis de que aumentos en el gasto publico contribuyen al crecimiento economico. Abstract: The empirical literature shows mixed results regarding the impact of public spending on the gross domestic product (GDP) of countries in general. This paper presents evidence on the impact of public spending on regional GDP in 24 departments of Colombia, during the period 1984-2012. In addition, we apply a causality test with panel data with the aim to determine whether this relationship is supported by the Keynesian approach or the Wagnerian approach. Using a model of cointegrated panel data, we obtain the long-run equilibrium relationship and estimate its coefficients. The results show a significant and positive effect of primary public spending on GDP, which is in line with the Keynesian approach and confirms the hypothesis that increases in public spending contribute to economic growth.
摘要经验文献提供了关于公共支出对整个国家国内生产总值(GDP)影响的各种结果。本文提供了1984-2012年期间该支出对哥伦比亚24个省国内生产总值影响的证据。此外,还使用面板数据进行因果关系测试,以确定这种关系是由凯恩斯主义方法还是瓦格纳主义方法支持的。通过面板协整数据模型,得到了这种关系,并估计了长期均衡关系的系数。结果表明,初级公共支出对国内生产总值产生了积极和显著的影响,这遵循凯恩斯主义的方法,并证实了公共支出增加有助于经济增长的假设。摘要:经验文献显示,关于公共支出对一般国家国内生产总值的影响,结果喜忧参半。本文件提供了1984-2012年期间哥伦比亚24个省公共支出对地区国内生产总值影响的证据。此外,我们使用面板数据进行因果关系测试,以确定这种关系是得到凯恩斯主义方法还是瓦格纳主义方法的支持。利用协整面板数据模型,得出长期均衡关系并估计其系数。结果表明,初级公共支出对国内生产总值产生了重大而积极的影响,这符合凯恩斯主义的做法,并证实了公共支出增加有助于经济增长的假设。
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引用次数: 10
Ni muy cerca ni muy lejos: parques urbanos y bienestar subjetivo en la ciudad de Barranquilla, Colombia 既不近也不远:哥伦比亚巴兰基亚市的城市公园和主观幸福感
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N88A06
A. Vargas, Paola Marcela Roldan
This article studies the relationship between life satisfaction and distance from the place of residence to the nearest urban park in the city of Barranquilla, Colombia. Using self-reported information on life satisfaction and spatial data on park location, we find a significant, inverted U-shaped effect of distance to urban parks on wellbeing. If distance to the urban park is too large, then the positive effects of the park cannot be enjoyed as much; but, if distance is too short, then negative effects due to noise, congestion or fear of crime may occur and outweigh the positive effects of the park. In general, results suggest that parks improve the welfare of urban populations and that their potential effect is greater if the factors that generate disutility to nearby residents are intervened.
本文研究了生活满意度与哥伦比亚巴兰基亚市从居住地到最近城市公园的距离之间的关系。使用自我报告的生活满意度信息和公园位置的空间数据,我们发现与城市公园的距离对幸福感有显著的倒U型影响。如果到城市公园的距离太远,那么公园的积极影响就无法得到充分享受;但是,如果距离太短,那么噪音、拥堵或对犯罪的恐惧可能会产生负面影响,并超过公园的积极影响。总的来说,研究结果表明,公园改善了城市人口的福利,如果对附近居民产生不利影响的因素得到干预,公园的潜在影响会更大。
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引用次数: 7
External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的外部周期与商品:含断裂的协整分析
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-12-01 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N88A02
Fernando Delbianco, Andrés Fioriti
External cycles and commodities in Latin America and the Caribbean: a cointegration analysis with breaks Abstract:  In this paper, we seek to characterize the relationship between the cyclical behavior of foreign accounts and commodity price indexes for Latin America and the Caribbean. Using several tests of stationarity that allow for the presence of breaks, we conclude that commodity prices are cointegrated with the current accounts in Latin American countries, suggesting that developmentalism plans did not obtain the desired productive diversification and that the region still relies heavily on commodities to determine its foreign position. Another important result supports the findings of Delbianco and Fioriti (2014, 2015) that the region had suffered two sudden stops in the last 60 years, both driven by shifts in commodity prices. Keywords: external sector, structural breaks, cointegration, Latin America JEL Classification:  C12, C58, E44, F44. Ciclos externos y productos basicos en America Latina y el Caribe: un analisis de cointegracion con quiebres Resumen:  En este trabajo se busca caracterizar la relacion entre los comportamientos ciclicos de la cuenta corriente y los indices de precios de los productos basicos (commodities) para America Latina y el Caribe. Usando diferentes test de estacionariedad que permiten la presencia de quiebres, se encuentra evidencia de que los precios de los commodities se encuentran cointegrados con las cuentas corrientes de los paises de Latinoamerica, lo que sugiere que los planes desarrollistas no generaron la diversificacion productiva deseada y que la posicion externa de la region todavia depende fuertemente de los productos basicos. Los resultados tambien apoyan los hallazgos de Delbianco y Fioriti (2014, 2015) que sostienen que la region ha sufrido dos quiebres estructurales en los ultimos 60 anos, ambos derivados de cambios en los precios de los commodities. Palabras Clave:  sector externo, quiebres estructurales, cointegracion, America Latina Clasificacion JEL:  C12, C58, E44, F44. Les cycles internationaux et le marche des matieres premiers en Amerique latine et les Caraibes: une analyse de cointegration avec rupture Resume:  Cet article cherche a caracteriser la relation entre le comportement cyclique de la balance courante et les indices de prix des matieres premieres pour l’Amerique latine et les Caraibes. Tout en utilisant differents tests de stationnarite afin d’etablir la presence de ruptures, nous montrons que les prix des matieres premieres sont cointegres avec les balances courantes des pays d’Amerique latine, ce qui suggere que les plans de developpement n’ont pas entraine la diversification productive souhaitee et que le positionnement des pays sur les marches internationaux depend encore fortement des matieres premieres. Ces resultats appuient egalement les conclusions avancees par Delbianco et Fioriti (2014, 2015) qui affirment que la region latino-americaine a subi deux ruptures struct
摘要:在本文中,我们试图描述拉丁美洲和加勒比地区外国账户的周期性行为与商品价格指数之间的关系。通过几项允许中断存在的平稳性测试,我们得出结论,商品价格与拉丁美洲国家的经常账户是协整的,这表明发展主义计划没有获得期望的生产多样化,该地区仍然严重依赖商品来确定其对外地位。另一个重要的结果支持Delbianco和Fioriti(2014, 2015)的发现,即该地区在过去60年中经历了两次突然停止,都是由商品价格的变化驱动的。关键词:对外部门,结构性断裂,协整,拉美JEL分类:C12, C58, E44, F44。美洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的外部产品基本(商品)指数与外部产品基本(商品)指数之间的相互关系。拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的外部产品基本(商品)指数之间的相互关系。在拉丁美洲,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件不同,不同地区的生产条件也不同。(2014年,2015年)从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看,从结果上看。Palabras Clave:扇形外部性,静力结构,协整性,美洲拉丁分类[j]: C12, C58, E44, F44。《国际循环》和《拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的电影首映》:一篇关于协整和断裂的分析文章:一篇关于关系的文章,一篇关于竞争的文章,一篇关于平衡的文章,一篇关于拉丁美洲和加勒比地区电影首映的文章,一篇关于价格的文章。不同的应用程序测试了不同的平台,并确定了不同的存在,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能,不同的功能。这些结果适用的平等les结论avancees par Delbianco et Fioriti (2014, 2015) quentement que la region latin -americaine a subi deux tures structureles of courcoures 60 dernieres annes, lesquelles sondines a 'evolution des prix des matieres premieres Mots-cles:部门外部性,结构断裂,协整,美洲拉丁。分类JEL: E01, E20, C22。
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引用次数: 3
Economic conditions and birth spacing in Colombia: a semi-parametric approach 哥伦比亚的经济条件和生育间隔:半参数方法
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-21 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N87A04
Blanca Zuluaga, Luis Jaramillo, Luis F. Gamboa
This document aims to provide evidence on the association between economic conditions and household fertility decisions related to birth spacing by using a Cox proportional hazards model. The contribution of the paper is twofold: first, it adds to the scarce existing literature on this topic for Latin America by offering evidence for Colombia; second, local heterogeneity in economic performance is considered by using regional economic growth as a shock potentially modifying household decisions. We find that better economic performance is associated with reductions in birth spacing. Thus, it seems that demand for children might be procyclical, an income effect predominating; however, when good conditions persist, demand for children decreases, suggesting the dominance of a substitution effect. An alternative interpretation is simply that economic growth increases the probability of having children, automatically reducing the risk after the boom.
本文旨在利用Cox比例风险模型,为经济状况与生育间隔相关的家庭生育决策之间的关联提供证据。本文的贡献是双重的:首先,它通过为哥伦比亚提供证据,增加了关于拉丁美洲这一主题的稀缺现有文献;其次,通过将区域经济增长作为可能改变家庭决策的冲击来考虑经济绩效的地方异质性。我们发现,更好的经济表现与生育间隔的缩短有关。因此,对孩子的需求似乎是顺周期的,收入效应占主导地位;然而,当良好的条件持续存在时,对儿童的需求就会减少,这表明替代效应占主导地位。另一种解释是,经济增长增加了生育孩子的可能性,在经济繁荣之后自动降低了风险。
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引用次数: 0
Health opportunities in Colombia 哥伦比亚的健康机会
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-21 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N87A05
Felipe Rivera
Resumen: De acuerdo con la teoria de igualdad de oportunidades, la desigualdad en un resultado final (por ejemplo, los ingresos monetarios) es causada, principalmente, por dos tipos de caracteristicas: las circunstancias y el esfuerzo individual. Los individuos no tienen control sobre las primeras, pero si sobre el esfuerzo. Las desigualdades en los resultados finales que son generadas por las circunstancias se consideran injustas, mientras que las generadas por las segundas, no. En este articulo se busca calcular el nivel de desigualdad injusta en salud existente en Colombia. Se concluye, preliminarmente, que en Colombia hay evidencia de desigualdad de oportunidades en salud, la cual explica entre el 30% y el 40% de la desigualdad total en el estado de salud autorreportado por los individuos. Considerando solamente las circunstancias observables, se concluye que la salud de la madre, la estructura del hogar durante la ninez y el genero son caracteristicas individuales que tienen una influencia considerable sobre este tipo de desigualdad. Abstract: According to the theory of equality of opportunity, inequality in final outcomes (e.g., monetary income) is mainly caused by two broad characteristics: circumstances and individual effort. Individuals have no control on the former but on the latter. Inequalities in final outcomes caused by circumstances are considered unfair, while those generated by effort are not. In this paper, we calculate the level of unjust inequality in health in Colombia. A preliminary conclusion is that Colombia presents evidence of inequality of opportunities in health, which explains between 30% and 40% of total inequality in self-reported health status. Considering only observable circumstances, mother’s health, household structure through childhood, and gender are individual characteristics that have considerable influence on this type of inequality.
摘要:根据机会平等理论,最终结果(如货币收入)的不平等主要是由两种特征引起的:环境和个人努力。个人无法控制前者,但可以控制努力。由环境造成的最终结果的不平等被认为是不公平的,而由环境造成的不平等则不是。本文试图计算哥伦比亚卫生领域的不公平不平等程度。本研究的目的是分析在哥伦比亚,自我报告的健康状况不平等占总健康状况不平等的30%至40%。本研究的主要目的是分析母亲的健康状况、90岁期间的家庭结构和性别对这种不平等有相当大影响的个体特征。摘要:根据机会平等理论,最终结果(如货币收入)的不平等主要是由两个广泛的特征造成的:环境和个人努力。个人不能控制前一个,但可以控制后一个。由环境造成的最终结果不平等被认为是不公平的,而由努力造成的结果不公平。在本文中,我们计算了哥伦比亚卫生方面的不公平不平等程度。初步结论是,哥伦比亚提供了健康机会不平等的证据,这解释了自我报告的健康状况总体不平等的30%至40%。仅从可观察到的情况来看,母亲的健康状况、童年时期的家庭结构和性别都是对这种不平等产生重大影响的个体特征。
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引用次数: 3
Economía, rentas criminales y políticas públicas en Medellín, por Tobón, D. y Valencia, G. (Eds.) medellin的经济、犯罪收入和公共政策,to邦,D.和巴伦西亚,G.(编)
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-21 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N87A08
A. Eslava
El problema de las rentas criminales en las ciudades latinoamericanas suele recibir atencion mediatica y, por ello, realza a los antagonistas del juego social. Sin embargo, academicos y algunos gobiernos tecnicos han comenzado a darle la altura que merece al debate publico. Es una fase inicial de la construccion de argumentos pero, aunque cuesta arriba, el camino es promisorio. Justamente alli esta localizado el aporte que un grupo de investigadores de la Universidad de Antioquia, de la Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y del Instituto de Estudios Politicos, auspiciados por la Secretaria de Seguridad de la Alcaldia de Medellin, logro construir para la conversacion que Medellin requiere en la ardua tarea de gestionar y promover la seguridad y la convivencia en la ciudad.
拉丁美洲城市的犯罪收入问题通常得到媒体的关注,因此加剧了社会游戏的对手。然而,学术界和一些技术政府已经开始给予公开辩论应有的重视。这是建立论点的初始阶段,但尽管困难重重,但这条道路是有希望的。就在那里,安蒂奥基亚大学、经济科学学院和政治研究所的一组研究人员在麦德林市长办公室安全秘书的赞助下,成功地为麦德林在管理和促进城市安全与共存的艰巨任务中所需的对话做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of monetary policy announcements on exchange rate volatility: an analysis for Colombia, 2008-2015 货币政策公告对汇率波动的影响:2008-2015年哥伦比亚分析
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-21 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N87A03
Juan Ciro, Claudio Oliveira de Moraes, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata
This paper seeks evidence on the effects of central bank communication. To do this, the ability of financial markets to predict monetary policy decisions in Colombia is evaluated. Also, the effects of surprise decisions by the central bank of Colombia on exchange rate volatility are estimated. The results show that central bank communication decreases the volatility of the exchange rate. In addition, it is found that other variables such as external risk, the price of oil and external interest rates affect exchange rate volatility in Colombia.
本文寻求央行沟通效果的证据。为此,评估了金融市场预测哥伦比亚货币政策决策的能力。此外,还估计了哥伦比亚中央银行的意外决定对汇率波动的影响。结果表明,央行沟通降低了汇率的波动性。此外,研究发现,外部风险、石油价格和外部利率等其他变量会影响哥伦比亚的汇率波动。
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引用次数: 1
Desigualdad de oportunidades en el sistema de educación pública en Bogotá, Colombia 哥伦比亚波哥大公共教育系统中的机会不平等
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-21 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N87A06
A. Sánchez, A. Clavijo, A. Arias, Jaime Andrés Sarmiento Espinel
Education is a means to equalize opportunities among individuals and to improve their welfare and future income. Nevertheless, there is limited literature assessing the degree of educational inequality in Colombia, and more so regarding public education. In this sense, this paper presents a comparative analysis of inequality of opportunity in academic achievement of two models of public education in Bogota: traditional and concession. To do this, propensity score matching estimations are used on a dataset collected from a sample of students who took the Saber 11 test in 2012. The results indicate that concession schools exhibit a lower degree of inequality of opportunities compared with traditional public schools.
教育是使个人之间的机会均等,提高他们的福利和未来收入的一种手段。然而,评估哥伦比亚教育不平等程度的文献有限,尤其是关于公共教育的文献。在此意义上,本文对波哥大两种公共教育模式:传统模式和让步模式的学术成就机会不平等进行了比较分析。为了做到这一点,倾向得分匹配估计被用于从2012年参加Saber 11测试的学生样本中收集的数据集。结果表明,与传统公立学校相比,特许学校的机会不平等程度较低。
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引用次数: 11
Globalización y desigualdad: evidencia en América Latina 全球化与不平等:拉丁美洲的证据
Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2017-07-21 DOI: 10.17533/UDEA.LE.N87A01
W. Rodríguez, Rocío Contreras Collantes
Resumen: Este articulo investiga la relacion entre globalizacion y desigualdad en doce economias latinoamericanas durante el periodo 2000-2013 mediante analisis de datos de panel. Con base en la importancia que da la literatura a la estructura de una economia, se dividieron los paises segun niveles de corrupcion, educacion, tamano del pais y apertura comercial. Los resultados sugieren que la apertura de mercado genera una disminucion de la desigualdad, mientras que la inversion extranjera la aumenta. Estructuralmente, los paises con mayor corrupcion, mayor apertura de mercado y mayor tamano aprovechan mejor las ventajas de la globalizacion con el fin de disminuir la desigualdad. Abstract: This study explores the relationship between globalization and income inequality in twelve Latin American economies during the period 2000-2013 using panel data analyses. Based on the importance that the literature gives to a country’s structure, the sample is grouped according to corruption levels, educational attainment levels, gross domestic product (GDP) and trade openness. The results show that higher trade openness generates a decrease in income inequality, while higher foreign direct investment increases it. Countries characterized by higher levels of corruption, trade openness and GDP take better advantage from globalization to decrease income inequality.
摘要:本文通过面板数据分析,研究了2000-2013年12个拉丁美洲经济体的全球化与不平等之间的关系。根据文学对经济结构的重视,按腐败、教育、国家规模和贸易开放程度划分了国家。结果表明,市场开放导致不平等减少,而外国投资增加了不平等。在结构上,腐败程度最高、市场开放程度最高、规模最大的国家更好地利用全球化的优势,以减少不平等。摘要:这项研究利用面板数据分析,探讨了2000-2013年期间12个拉丁美洲经济体全球化与收入不平等之间的关系。根据文学对一个国家结构的重要性,样本按腐败程度、教育程度、国内生产总值和贸易开放程度分组。结果表明,较高的贸易开放度会导致收入不平等减少,而较高的外国直接投资会增加收入不平等。腐败程度较高、贸易开放度和国内生产总值较高的国家更好地利用全球化来减少收入不平等。
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引用次数: 3
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