Pub Date : 2019-02-04DOI: 10.31767/SU.3(82)2018.03.07
A. Sydorova
Social and economic development is a difficult process in which positive and negative factors interact that causes rises and recessions in development of territories and public communities. Indicators of rating act as indicators of efficiency of management decisions at the central and local levels. However, the level of economic development doesn’t coincide with social development in most of regions of Ukraine. The purpose of article is adaptation of a matrix method to rating estimates of social and economic development of regions for identification of regional distinctions, definition of priorities and strategic management of development of regions. The economic development of the regions was estimated by GRP per capita, the average salary of employees and the unemployment rate (according to the ILO methodology). Social development is characterized by the number of people enrolled in higher education institutions per 10,000 population; coefficient of incidence of the population; volumes of emissions of pollutants in atmospheric air, thousand tons; crime rates. The multidimensional average method with the standardization of indicators based on the variation range was used to calculate the integral indicators of economic and social development. On the basis of integral coefficients, the ranking of regions according to economic and social development was executed. It is established that for the regions of Ukraine there is a characteristic imbalance between economic and social development, which is connected, first of all, with different structure of the economy and territorial differences of regions. The combination of results of economic and social development of regions was proposed with the help of building a matrix as a tool for strategic management. In the graphs (vertically), the level of economic development is singled out, in lines (horizontally) the level of social development of the regions is singled out, with the identification of three groups: low, medium and high levels. Regions with low economic and low social level get to 1 square; in 2 – with low economic and average social; in 3 – with low economic and high social; in 4 – with average economic and low social; in 5 – with average economic and average social; in 6 – with average economic and high social; in 7 – with high economic and low social; in 8 – with high economic and average social; in 9 – with high economic and high social level. Calculations show that in Ukraine no region was detected with simultaneous high levels of economic and social development (the 9th square). The vast majority are regions with average economic and average social development and also regions “below or above an average” level of development, that is one of the directions (economic or social) is “low”, and the second, accordingly, “average”. The position of the region in a matrix specifies what development strategy should be chosen. The economic and social development is higher; the capacity of t
{"title":"Strategies of Social and Economic Development of Regions of Ukraine","authors":"A. Sydorova","doi":"10.31767/SU.3(82)2018.03.07","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.3(82)2018.03.07","url":null,"abstract":"Social and economic development is a difficult process in which positive and negative factors interact that causes rises and recessions in development of territories and public communities. Indicators of rating act as indicators of efficiency of management decisions at the central and local levels. However, the level of economic development doesn’t coincide with social development in most of regions of Ukraine. \u0000The purpose of article is adaptation of a matrix method to rating estimates of social and economic development of regions for identification of regional distinctions, definition of priorities and strategic management of development of regions. \u0000The economic development of the regions was estimated by GRP per capita, the average salary of employees and the unemployment rate (according to the ILO methodology). Social development is characterized by the number of people enrolled in higher education institutions per 10,000 population; coefficient of incidence of the population; volumes of emissions of pollutants in atmospheric air, thousand tons; crime rates. \u0000The multidimensional average method with the standardization of indicators based on the variation range was used to calculate the integral indicators of economic and social development. On the basis of integral coefficients, the ranking of regions according to economic and social development was executed. It is established that for the regions of Ukraine there is a characteristic imbalance between economic and social development, which is connected, first of all, with different structure of the economy and territorial differences of regions. \u0000The combination of results of economic and social development of regions was proposed with the help of building a matrix as a tool for strategic management. In the graphs (vertically), the level of economic development is singled out, in lines (horizontally) the level of social development of the regions is singled out, with the identification of three groups: low, medium and high levels. \u0000Regions with low economic and low social level get to 1 square; in 2 – with low economic and average social; in 3 – with low economic and high social; in 4 – with average economic and low social; in 5 – with average economic and average social; in 6 – with average economic and high social; in 7 – with high economic and low social; in 8 – with high economic and average social; in 9 – with high economic and high social level. \u0000Calculations show that in Ukraine no region was detected with simultaneous high levels of economic and social development (the 9th square). The vast majority are regions with average economic and average social development and also regions “below or above an average” level of development, that is one of the directions (economic or social) is “low”, and the second, accordingly, “average”. The position of the region in a matrix specifies what development strategy should be chosen. The economic and social development is higher; the capacity of t","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47558578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.14
V. S. Fetisov
STATISTICA software package for statistical analysis incorporates a wide range of advanced statistical methods. Quite often they are preceded by aggregating statistical survey data, which main component is their grouping. Although this phase of statistical data processing is relatively simple, the manual process of aggregation can be time-consuming given the need to process large data arrays, not mentioning a high probability of errors. Therefore, the all-purpose STATISTICA software package is a logical and reasonable tool for grouping of data. The article shows the grouping algorithm in STATISTICA software package, with focus on setup when constructing tables of frequencies of discrete and continual characters. Various options of grouping are scrutinized, with providing examples of their visualization. A large number of STATISTICA parameters offers ample opportunities for constructing user tables, but users often are not aware of these options or do not know how they can be applied. Yet, the apparently simple grouping process in STATISTICA software package can sometimes require the knowledge of fine mechanisms for its setup. The article gives a detailed description of the mechanisms for creating interval margins when applying the parameter “approximate number of intervals”. The standard algorithm for selection is analyzed, allowing a user to limit the number of groups in a grouping. STATISTICA allows for using a number of grouping parameters, enabling to produce more convenient results or filter them. Thus, setting the clicker for label field “Grouping” in the position “Integer Categories” (integer intervals (categories)) initiates the grouping only for integer values of a variable, by excluding the observations containing its fractional values. When only standard parameters are used, it will be impossible to form uneven or open intervals. This issue is out of focus in specialized literature and Internet sources. The article shows the algorithm for constructing open intervals by user-set conditions and the process of creating these conditions. This option allows for forming both closed and open intervals by solving all the problems in time of grouping. Because creating such conditions is time consuming, they should be preserved if they are required for further use. Setting up of STATISTICA software with missing data is analyzed. Its application will be advisable when a grouping for two or more variables is constructed. In this case, a separate sheet with a grouping is to be created in the worksheet for each variable.
{"title":"Constructing Groupings by Use of STATISTICA Software Package","authors":"V. S. Fetisov","doi":"10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.14","url":null,"abstract":"STATISTICA software package for statistical analysis incorporates a wide range of advanced statistical methods. Quite often they are preceded by aggregating statistical survey data, which main component is their grouping. Although this phase of statistical data processing is relatively simple, the manual process of aggregation can be time-consuming given the need to process large data arrays, not mentioning a high probability of errors. Therefore, the all-purpose STATISTICA software package is a logical and reasonable tool for grouping of data. \u0000The article shows the grouping algorithm in STATISTICA software package, with focus on setup when constructing tables of frequencies of discrete and continual characters. Various options of grouping are scrutinized, with providing examples of their visualization. \u0000A large number of STATISTICA parameters offers ample opportunities for constructing user tables, but users often are not aware of these options or do not know how they can be applied. Yet, the apparently simple grouping process in STATISTICA software package can sometimes require the knowledge of fine mechanisms for its setup. The article gives a detailed description of the mechanisms for creating interval margins when applying the parameter “approximate number of intervals”. \u0000The standard algorithm for selection is analyzed, allowing a user to limit the number of groups in a grouping. STATISTICA allows for using a number of grouping parameters, enabling to produce more convenient results or filter them. Thus, setting the clicker for label field “Grouping” in the position “Integer Categories” (integer intervals (categories)) initiates the grouping only for integer values of a variable, by excluding the observations containing its fractional values. \u0000When only standard parameters are used, it will be impossible to form uneven or open intervals. This issue is out of focus in specialized literature and Internet sources. The article shows the algorithm for constructing open intervals by user-set conditions and the process of creating these conditions. This option allows for forming both closed and open intervals by solving all the problems in time of grouping. Because creating such conditions is time consuming, they should be preserved if they are required for further use. \u0000Setting up of STATISTICA software with missing data is analyzed. Its application will be advisable when a grouping for two or more variables is constructed. In this case, a separate sheet with a grouping is to be created in the worksheet for each variable. ","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45471854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.12
S. Gacim
The article examines the current trends and prospects for trade and economic cooperation between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Azerbaijan. The author considers the factors that determine the current state of bilateral trade and economic cooperation. It has been established that in modern conditions, the importance of the Azerbaijan Republic as an international economic partner of the Kingdom of Morocco is growing, which is due to the increasing role of Azerbaijan in the world economy through energy supplies. On the basis of statistical data of the two countries, a comparative analysis of foreign trade of the Kingdom of Morocco with the Republic of Azerbaijan and foreign trade of the Republic of Azerbaijan with the Kingdom of Morocco has been conducted for the period from 2009 to 2016. The paradox, which is the simultaneous existence of a positive balance in the bilateral trade of each of the countries being studied, has been revealed and explained. It has been proved that trade relations between the two countries are fragile. The problem of intermediaries in trade operations between the two countries has been underlined. The author concludes that the level of development of bilateral trade and economic cooperation of the Kingdom of Morocco with the Republic of Azerbaijan is low and there is a need to introduce appropriate organizational mechanisms for its development. Promising areas of bilateral trade and economic cooperation have been identified, for the revitalization of which the creation of an interactive virtual platform “Economic Cooperation between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Azerbaijan” has been proposed.
{"title":"Prospects for Trade and Economic Cooperation between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Azerbaijan","authors":"S. Gacim","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.12","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the current trends and prospects for trade and economic cooperation between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Azerbaijan. The author considers the factors that determine the current state of bilateral trade and economic cooperation. It has been established that in modern conditions, the importance of the Azerbaijan Republic as an international economic partner of the Kingdom of Morocco is growing, which is due to the increasing role of Azerbaijan in the world economy through energy supplies. On the basis of statistical data of the two countries, a comparative analysis of foreign trade of the Kingdom of Morocco with the Republic of Azerbaijan and foreign trade of the Republic of Azerbaijan with the Kingdom of Morocco has been conducted for the period from 2009 to 2016. The paradox, which is the simultaneous existence of a positive balance in the bilateral trade of each of the countries being studied, has been revealed and explained. It has been proved that trade relations between the two countries are fragile. The problem of intermediaries in trade operations between the two countries has been underlined. The author concludes that the level of development of bilateral trade and economic cooperation of the Kingdom of Morocco with the Republic of Azerbaijan is low and there is a need to introduce appropriate organizational mechanisms for its development. Promising areas of bilateral trade and economic cooperation have been identified, for the revitalization of which the creation of an interactive virtual platform “Economic Cooperation between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Republic of Azerbaijan” has been proposed.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42774654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.08
N. Kovtun, I. Motuziuk, R. Ganzha
Recently, an increase in the incidence of multiple primary malignant neoplasms has been observed, specifically, when two or more unrelated tumors originate from different organs and appear in the body simultaneously or sequentially, one after another. During past few years, the interval between the first and second reproductive cancer diagnosis has decreased in 6 times – from 11 to just 2 years while probability of surviving the next 3 years after 8.5 years past initial diagnosis has decreased from 0.995 to 0.562. Using performed analysis, this paper provides details of survival modelling for women with breast cancer with the aim to find the most significant factors affecting the likelihood of survival not by chance alone. The data used for research were obtained from Ukrainian National Institute of Cancer covering 1981–2017 period. The modelling was performed using Cox regression with forward effect selection method and stay in p-value boundary equal to 0.15. The forward method firstly computes the adjusted chi-square statistics for each variable. Then, it examines the largest computed statistics and if particular one is significant, the corresponding variable is added to the model. Once the variable is entered, it is never removed from the model. 3 out of 4 factors that appeared to be significant according to forward selection method were confirmed as the significant ones by stepwise selection method. The results of modelling proved the possibility of prediction the survival using certain set of disease features and subjects’ characteristics. Testing of global hypothesis for Beta resulted in rejecting of null hypothesis (Beta = 0) in favor of the alternative one (Beta ≠ 0) thus it was confirmed that the models make sense and can be used to predict survival in women with breast cancer. According to obtained results, the most significant disease features and subjects characteristics appeared to be: type of multiple processes (synchronous or metachronous), presence of relapse and/or metastasis, type and combination of treatment, stage of disease. Cancer with synchronous processes is characterized by greater aggressiveness and it reduces survival by almost 13 times compared with cancer where metachronous processes take place. Even though chemotherapy significantly increases the survival rate of patients, it also impacts the probability of relapses and metastasis occurrence, which are 16 times more likely to occur if chemotherapy was a part of treatment. This gives grounds for assumption that it has an indirect effect on survival and hence needs to be analyzed considering its negative impact on the relapses and metastasis occurrence probability, which, in turn, reduces survival by 10 times. This fact, in our opinion, introduces the need for further in-depth analysis. The significant difference between survival rates in patients with the first and third stages of cancer has been proved – the chances to survive with the disease at the first stage are
{"title":"Using Cox Regression to Forecast of Survival of Women with Multiple Malignant Neoplasms","authors":"N. Kovtun, I. Motuziuk, R. Ganzha","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.08","url":null,"abstract":"Recently, an increase in the incidence of multiple primary malignant neoplasms has been observed, specifically, when two or more unrelated tumors originate from different organs and appear in the body simultaneously or sequentially, one after another. During past few years, the interval between the first and second reproductive cancer diagnosis has decreased in 6 times – from 11 to just 2 years while probability of surviving the next 3 years after 8.5 years past initial diagnosis has decreased from 0.995 to 0.562. Using performed analysis, this paper provides details of survival modelling for women with breast cancer with the aim to find the most significant factors affecting the likelihood of survival not by chance alone. The data used for research were obtained from Ukrainian National Institute of Cancer covering 1981–2017 period. The modelling was performed using Cox regression with forward effect selection method and stay in p-value boundary equal to 0.15. The forward method firstly computes the adjusted chi-square statistics for each variable. Then, it examines the largest computed statistics and if particular one is significant, the corresponding variable is added to the model. Once the variable is entered, it is never removed from the model. 3 out of 4 factors that appeared to be significant according to forward selection method were confirmed as the significant ones by stepwise selection method. The results of modelling proved the possibility of prediction the survival using certain set of disease features and subjects’ characteristics. Testing of global hypothesis for Beta resulted in rejecting of null hypothesis (Beta = 0) in favor of the alternative one (Beta ≠ 0) thus it was confirmed that the models make sense and can be used to predict survival in women with breast cancer. According to obtained results, the most significant disease features and subjects characteristics appeared to be: type of multiple processes (synchronous or metachronous), presence of relapse and/or metastasis, type and combination of treatment, stage of disease. Cancer with synchronous processes is characterized by greater aggressiveness and it reduces survival by almost 13 times compared with cancer where metachronous processes take place. Even though chemotherapy significantly increases the survival rate of patients, it also impacts the probability of relapses and metastasis occurrence, which are 16 times more likely to occur if chemotherapy was a part of treatment. This gives grounds for assumption that it has an indirect effect on survival and hence needs to be analyzed considering its negative impact on the relapses and metastasis occurrence probability, which, in turn, reduces survival by 10 times. This fact, in our opinion, introduces the need for further in-depth analysis. The significant difference between survival rates in patients with the first and third stages of cancer has been proved – the chances to survive with the disease at the first stage are ","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44937322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.11
Yu. Ye. Prydannykova
The article offers the statistical methodology for assessment of relationship between economic growth and material welfare of the Ukrainian regions based on the method of complex statistical coefficients by using statistical data for 2016. The theoretical and applied aspects of opportunities of studied method for comprehensive rating assessment of Ukrainian regions through standardizing the values of examined indexes in economic and material welfare spheres are considered. Definition of the term “material welfare of a population” is given in the article. Material welfare of a population is determined in time quantitative-qualitative characteristic of standard of living of population of a country as summarized result of the state policy in social field and economic activity of a population in production and consumption fields. Structured and logical schema of mutual influence between the spheres of economics and material welfare of a population is suggested by the author. It was found that the standard of living of a population directly generates material welfare that in turn to be a background for a quality of life. At the same time such distribution of macroeconomic definitions is a new approach enable for statistical studying of relationship between the state of economy and the sphere of material welfare of Ukrainian population. Rating assessment is calculated by available statistical data obtained from the results of state statistical observation performance. In this regard formation of the system of 119 indicators that comprehensively describes the levels of development of material welfare sphere and county’s economy has been conducted. The final results of the assessment are studied in comparison with some other well-known rating assessments in these spheres. Тhe article proclaims that statistical studying of correlation between indexes of economic sphere and indexes in the sphere of material welfare is necessary. For that purpose, it has been developed the way of assessment the degree of relationship of studied spheres based on complex weighted coefficient of variances according to the formula proposed by the author. From the results of calculations of that coefficient and according to the criteria for assessing the stability of a correlation it is justified that the gap between the levels of economic development and material welfare of a population of Ukrainian regions should be reduced. Such approach is considered to determine exact tasks for public administration policy to increase economic growth in relationship with material welfare of a population. It can be an effective tool for managing the state of affairs, planning in performance management process and improving the value of relationship between the levels of development in the spheres under review.
{"title":"Comprehensive Statistical Assessment of Indexes of Economic Growth and Material Welfare of the Ukrainian regions","authors":"Yu. Ye. Prydannykova","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.11","url":null,"abstract":"The article offers the statistical methodology for assessment of relationship between economic growth and material welfare of the Ukrainian regions based on the method of complex statistical coefficients by using statistical data for 2016. The theoretical and applied aspects of opportunities of studied method for comprehensive rating assessment of Ukrainian regions through standardizing the values of examined indexes in economic and material welfare spheres are considered. \u0000Definition of the term “material welfare of a population” is given in the article. Material welfare of a population is determined in time quantitative-qualitative characteristic of standard of living of population of a country as summarized result of the state policy in social field and economic activity of a population in production and consumption fields. Structured and logical schema of mutual influence between the spheres of economics and material welfare of a population is suggested by the author. It was found that the standard of living of a population directly generates material welfare that in turn to be a background for a quality of life. At the same time such distribution of macroeconomic definitions is a new approach enable for statistical studying of relationship between the state of economy and the sphere of material welfare of Ukrainian population. Rating assessment is calculated by available statistical data obtained from the results of state statistical observation performance. In this regard formation of the system of 119 indicators that comprehensively describes the levels of development of material welfare sphere and county’s economy has been conducted. The final results of the assessment are studied in comparison with some other well-known rating assessments in these spheres. \u0000Тhe article proclaims that statistical studying of correlation between indexes of economic sphere and indexes in the sphere of material welfare is necessary. For that purpose, it has been developed the way of assessment the degree of relationship of studied spheres based on complex weighted coefficient of variances according to the formula proposed by the author. From the results of calculations of that coefficient and according to the criteria for assessing the stability of a correlation it is justified that the gap between the levels of economic development and material welfare of a population of Ukrainian regions should be reduced. Such approach is considered to determine exact tasks for public administration policy to increase economic growth in relationship with material welfare of a population. It can be an effective tool for managing the state of affairs, planning in performance management process and improving the value of relationship between the levels of development in the spheres under review.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47081956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.03
A. Zhurauliou, O. A. Simachov
The article analyzes the development of the information technology industry in Ukraine for the last few years. The purposes of the study were to identify and uncover problems with statistical monitoring of Ukrainian IT industry, analyze present challenges of the information technology industry development, and find ways to improve statistical studies of the industry on the state level. The current state of the information technology industry in Ukraine and the main directions of the industry expansion (software development outsourcing, development of packaged software) were evaluated and compared to the ones of the European countries. Through a combination of researches and surveys conducted by the Ukrainian developer’s society (DOU), qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IT industry development performance and labor market were analyzed: major education providers, the structure of job titles and positions, as well as principal locations, age-grading, gender and wage structure of workers. Conclusions from the analysis allow suggesting that the official state statistics service research areas provide a limited outlook on the information technology industry statistics due to being hindered by institutional constraints. Among the major constraints for the growth of the information technology industry in Ukraine, the following four are recognized: the lack of predictable and sustainable taxation, slow reforms process in the education system, an inappropriate level of intellectual property rights protection and insufficient development of state information technology infrastructure. While the impact of the Ukrainian information technology sector on the economic development is evident and the industry shows strong growth among the various segments of the Ukrainian economy, there is no sufficient essential economic information collected, analyzed, and disseminated due to a number of problems related to statistical monitoring, which in turn requires an appropriate statistical basis and assessment methodology for further evaluation of the industry development.
{"title":"Statistical Analysis of the IT Market in Ukraine","authors":"A. Zhurauliou, O. A. Simachov","doi":"10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/su.4(83)2018.04.03","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the development of the information technology industry in Ukraine for the last few years. The purposes of the study were to identify and uncover problems with statistical monitoring of Ukrainian IT industry, analyze present challenges of the information technology industry development, and find ways to improve statistical studies of the industry on the state level. The current state of the information technology industry in Ukraine and the main directions of the industry expansion (software development outsourcing, development of packaged software) were evaluated and compared to the ones of the European countries. Through a combination of researches and surveys conducted by the Ukrainian developer’s society (DOU), qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IT industry development performance and labor market were analyzed: major education providers, the structure of job titles and positions, as well as principal locations, age-grading, gender and wage structure of workers. \u0000Conclusions from the analysis allow suggesting that the official state statistics service research areas provide a limited outlook on the information technology industry statistics due to being hindered by institutional constraints. Among the major constraints for the growth of the information technology industry in Ukraine, the following four are recognized: the lack of predictable and sustainable taxation, slow reforms process in the education system, an inappropriate level of intellectual property rights protection and insufficient development of state information technology infrastructure. While the impact of the Ukrainian information technology sector on the economic development is evident and the industry shows strong growth among the various segments of the Ukrainian economy, there is no sufficient essential economic information collected, analyzed, and disseminated due to a number of problems related to statistical monitoring, which in turn requires an appropriate statistical basis and assessment methodology for further evaluation of the industry development.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44687834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.02
F. Motsnyi
In the statistical analysis of experimental results it is extremely important to know the distribution laws of the general population. Because of all assumptions about the distribution laws are statistical hypotheses, they should be tested. Testing hypotheses are carried out by using the statistical criteria that divided the multitude in two subsets: null and alternative. The null hypothesis is accepted in subset null and is rejected in alternative subset. Knowledge of the distribution law is a prerequisite for the use of numerical mathematical methods. The hypothesis is accepted if the divergence between empirical and theoretical distributions will be random. The hypothesis is rejected if the divergence between empirical and theoretical distributions will be essential. There is a number of different agreement criteria for the statistical hypotheses testing. The paper continues ideas of the author’s works, devoted to advanced based tools of the mathematical statistics. This part of the paper is devoted to nonparametric agreement criteria. Nonparametric tests don’t allow us to include in calculations the parameters of the probability distribution and to operate with frequency only, as well as to assume directly that the experimental data have a specific distribution. Nonparametric criteria are widely used in analysis of the empirical data, in the testing of the simple and complex statistical hypotheses etc. They include the well known criteria of K. Pearson, A. Kolmogorov, N. H. Kuiper, G. S. Watson, T. W. Anderson, D. A. Darling, J. Zhang, Mann – Whitney U-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and so on. Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria are most frequently used in mathematical statistics. Pearson criterion (-criterion) is the universal statistical nonparametric criterion which has -distribution. It is used for the testing of the null hypothesis about subordination of the distribution of sample empirical to theory of general population at large amounts of sample (n>50). Pearson criterion is connected with calculation of theoretical frequency. Kolmogorov criterion is used for comparing empirical and theoretical distributions and permits to find the point in which the difference between these distributions is maximum and statistically reliable. Kolmogorov criterion is used at large amounts of sample too. It should be noted, that the results obtained by using Pearson criterion are more precise because practically all experimental data are used. The peculiarities of Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria are found out. The formulas for calculations are given and the typical tasks are suggested and solved. The typical tasks are suggested and solved that help us to understand more deeply the essence of Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria.
{"title":"Analysis of Nonparametric and Parametric Criteria for Statistical Hypotheses Testing. Chapter 1. Agreement Criteria of Pearson and Kolmogorov","authors":"F. Motsnyi","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.02","url":null,"abstract":"In the statistical analysis of experimental results it is extremely important to know the distribution laws of the general population. Because of all assumptions about the distribution laws are statistical hypotheses, they should be tested. Testing hypotheses are carried out by using the statistical criteria that divided the multitude in two subsets: null and alternative. The null hypothesis is accepted in subset null and is rejected in alternative subset. Knowledge of the distribution law is a prerequisite for the use of numerical mathematical methods. The hypothesis is accepted if the divergence between empirical and theoretical distributions will be random. The hypothesis is rejected if the divergence between empirical and theoretical distributions will be essential. \u0000There is a number of different agreement criteria for the statistical hypotheses testing. The paper continues ideas of the author’s works, devoted to advanced based tools of the mathematical statistics. This part of the paper is devoted to nonparametric agreement criteria. \u0000Nonparametric tests don’t allow us to include in calculations the parameters of the probability distribution and to operate with frequency only, as well as to assume directly that the experimental data have a specific distribution. Nonparametric criteria are widely used in analysis of the empirical data, in the testing of the simple and complex statistical hypotheses etc. They include the well known criteria of K. Pearson, A. Kolmogorov, N. H. Kuiper, G. S. Watson, T. W. Anderson, D. A. Darling, J. Zhang, Mann – Whitney U-test, Wilcoxon signed-rank test and so on. Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria are most frequently used in mathematical statistics. \u0000Pearson criterion (-criterion) is the universal statistical nonparametric criterion which has -distribution. It is used for the testing of the null hypothesis about subordination of the distribution of sample empirical to theory of general population at large amounts of sample (n>50). Pearson criterion is connected with calculation of theoretical frequency. Kolmogorov criterion is used for comparing empirical and theoretical distributions and permits to find the point in which the difference between these distributions is maximum and statistically reliable. Kolmogorov criterion is used at large amounts of sample too. It should be noted, that the results obtained by using Pearson criterion are more precise because practically all experimental data are used. \u0000The peculiarities of Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria are found out. The formulas for calculations are given and the typical tasks are suggested and solved. The typical tasks are suggested and solved that help us to understand more deeply the essence of Pearson and Kolmogorov criteria.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49222795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.09
V. Kukharenko, L. Perkhun, N. M. Tovmachenko
In the article, the description of the complex evaluation method is given, as well as the classical method of Data Mining and Item Response Theory (IRT). In the general method there are six steps. This article describes steps 4-6. The fourth step of the method is to evaluate the reliability of the test. A universal two-step procedure is proposed – the assessment of the reliability of individual test tasks based on the coefficient of internal coherence of Kjuder – Richardson and the evaluation of the reliability of the test as a whole by the coefficient of generalization. The first of the coefficients is considered acceptable at the level of 0.7 and above, the second – at the level of 0.8 and above. Two-factor ANOVA variance analysis without repeated measurements in SPSS was used to calculate the second coefficient. At the fifth stage of the methodology, the quality of students' differentiation is assessed by a test that is being studied. The tool for this is selected hierarchical cluster procedures, classification trees and classification discriminant functions. The calculations were performed by means of Statistica and SPSS. Three clusters of students with high, medium and low academic performance were identified. It is shown that the test under study allows the differentiation of students. At the last, sixth stage, a study of the quality of the test is described based on the one-parameter model of Rash. The levels of the difficulty of the test assignment and the mastering of the student's study material are measured in logics. The analytical task of the characteristic individual curve of the test assignment and the characteristic individual curve of the student, as well as the auxiliary formulas for their calculations, are given. The description is illustrated by a specific example. It is noted that the characteristic curves of students based on the Rash model by means of MathCAD, can clearly divide the latter into two groups – strong (have positive logic) and weak (have negative logic). Recommendations on the interpretation of the obtained results for certain test tasks are formulated. In particular, in case of overlap of the characteristic curves of various test tasks, they must be deleted (normative-oriented test) or reconstructed (criterion-oriented test). This paper does not consider how to determine which test question is to be deleted or corrected, but it is indicated that this can be established with the help of a two-parameter Birnbaum model. If the density of the characteristic curves of the test tasks is not the same; It is recommended to add a test task (in the case of a normative-oriented test) or thus change the duplicate test questions (in the case of a normative-oriented test) to fill the gaps of the abscissa, where there are no characteristic curves. By the practical implementation of this technique, the authors determine the development of a separate plug-in that is compatible with the Moodle distance learning platform. T
{"title":"The Method for Comprehensive Quality Evaluation of Tests. Part 2","authors":"V. Kukharenko, L. Perkhun, N. M. Tovmachenko","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.09","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.09","url":null,"abstract":"In the article, the description of the complex evaluation method is given, as well as the classical method of Data Mining and Item Response Theory (IRT). In the general method there are six steps. This article describes steps 4-6. \u0000The fourth step of the method is to evaluate the reliability of the test. A universal two-step procedure is proposed – the assessment of the reliability of individual test tasks based on the coefficient of internal coherence of Kjuder – Richardson and the evaluation of the reliability of the test as a whole by the coefficient of generalization. The first of the coefficients is considered acceptable at the level of 0.7 and above, the second – at the level of 0.8 and above. Two-factor ANOVA variance analysis without repeated measurements in SPSS was used to calculate the second coefficient. \u0000At the fifth stage of the methodology, the quality of students' differentiation is assessed by a test that is being studied. The tool for this is selected hierarchical cluster procedures, classification trees and classification discriminant functions. The calculations were performed by means of Statistica and SPSS. Three clusters of students with high, medium and low academic performance were identified. It is shown that the test under study allows the differentiation of students. \u0000At the last, sixth stage, a study of the quality of the test is described based on the one-parameter model of Rash. The levels of the difficulty of the test assignment and the mastering of the student's study material are measured in logics. The analytical task of the characteristic individual curve of the test assignment and the characteristic individual curve of the student, as well as the auxiliary formulas for their calculations, are given. The description is illustrated by a specific example. It is noted that the characteristic curves of students based on the Rash model by means of MathCAD, can clearly divide the latter into two groups – strong (have positive logic) and weak (have negative logic). Recommendations on the interpretation of the obtained results for certain test tasks are formulated. In particular, in case of overlap of the characteristic curves of various test tasks, they must be deleted (normative-oriented test) or reconstructed (criterion-oriented test). This paper does not consider how to determine which test question is to be deleted or corrected, but it is indicated that this can be established with the help of a two-parameter Birnbaum model. If the density of the characteristic curves of the test tasks is not the same; It is recommended to add a test task (in the case of a normative-oriented test) or thus change the duplicate test questions (in the case of a normative-oriented test) to fill the gaps of the abscissa, where there are no characteristic curves. \u0000By the practical implementation of this technique, the authors determine the development of a separate plug-in that is compatible with the Moodle distance learning platform. \u0000T","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43293262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.05
І. Аrtemieva
The areas of transformation of the statistical activities of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the post-crisis period are outlined, and their contribution in the global financial stabilization is assessed. The IMF results in detecting and eliminating information shortages by disseminating the standard methodology for statistical studies, unified principles for information collection, methods for computation and analysis of statistical indicators, harmonization and unification of the information content and dissemination methods are described. The evolution of the three-tier statistical standard of IMF (Special Data Dissemination Standard, General Data Dissemination System and Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus) is analyzed as the global reference for disseminating economic and financial data, which simplifies access of economic experts from all over the world to timely and complete statistical information, thus helping the international community implement macroeconomic policies. The article gives an assessment of IMF activities in collecting and disseminating statistical data about the areas where the system risk detected in time of the latest global crisis increased to the largest extent: studies devoted to cross-border and cross-sector relations, the market of bonds and derivatives, large banks and non-banking sector. The area of IMF statistical activities related with studies of trans-border financial relations is described. The initiatives on eliminating information shortage, required to trigger global regulatory reforms and implemented by IMF in collaboration with other international organizations are highlighted. The IMF strategy on data and statistics in the digital era, intended to improve the IMF statistical activities given the critical level of data volatility and the increasing demand for high quality data in conformity with the new priorities of supervision, is described. The areas of further improvements in the international cooperation and elimination of statistical data shortages detected by the crisis by use of innovative methods for collection, processing and dissemination of statistical data, to produce the sets of timely, reliable and comparable indicators for non-financial and financial sector, are outlined.
{"title":"Statistical Activities of IMF: A Factor of Global Financial Stabilization in the Post-Crisis Period","authors":"І. Аrtemieva","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.05","url":null,"abstract":"The areas of transformation of the statistical activities of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the post-crisis period are outlined, and their contribution in the global financial stabilization is assessed. The IMF results in detecting and eliminating information shortages by disseminating the standard methodology for statistical studies, unified principles for information collection, methods for computation and analysis of statistical indicators, harmonization and unification of the information content and dissemination methods are described. \u0000The evolution of the three-tier statistical standard of IMF (Special Data Dissemination Standard, General Data Dissemination System and Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus) is analyzed as the global reference for disseminating economic and financial data, which simplifies access of economic experts from all over the world to timely and complete statistical information, thus helping the international community implement macroeconomic policies. \u0000The article gives an assessment of IMF activities in collecting and disseminating statistical data about the areas where the system risk detected in time of the latest global crisis increased to the largest extent: studies devoted to cross-border and cross-sector relations, the market of bonds and derivatives, large banks and non-banking sector. \u0000The area of IMF statistical activities related with studies of trans-border financial relations is described. The initiatives on eliminating information shortage, required to trigger global regulatory reforms and implemented by IMF in collaboration with other international organizations are highlighted. \u0000The IMF strategy on data and statistics in the digital era, intended to improve the IMF statistical activities given the critical level of data volatility and the increasing demand for high quality data in conformity with the new priorities of supervision, is described. \u0000The areas of further improvements in the international cooperation and elimination of statistical data shortages detected by the crisis by use of innovative methods for collection, processing and dissemination of statistical data, to produce the sets of timely, reliable and comparable indicators for non-financial and financial sector, are outlined.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48954647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-12-17DOI: 10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.13
I. M. Dmitrenko, R. Kostyrko, V. Bondar
The article defines the basic accounting items that determine the impact on the complex of methodological principles of accounting and reporting generalization of information about intangible assets. The complex of basic accounting positions for intangible assets is proposed in the following composition: definition of the object of accounting; method of identification; response to goodwill; how to receive and how to pay; the criteria for recognizing the asset is intrinsic; method of initial assessment; revaluation model; response to impairment; conditions for the choice and application of methods of accrual of depreciation; directions of disclosure. The key methodological principles of accounting for intangible assets are systematized on the basis of a comparative analysis of the provisions of national and international standards. As a result of the comparative analysis, both conceptually similar principles and those that are characterized by significant differences are established. In particular, this applies to: the ways of obtaining and payment of the intangible assets, for which the IAS does not provide for the free receipt and payment of an intangible asset to the authorized capital of the enterprise, which emphasizes the nature of such assets in view of the obligation to receive future economic benefits; the definition of the value of internally generated goodwill is precisely in IAS, which contributes to a reasonable separation from the value of its own intangible assets in the event of the merger of enterprises; the initial valuation of the intangible assets, for which IAS prioritizes the valuation at cost rather than fair value, as defined by National Accounting Standards, due to the dependence of the usually unpopular phenomenon - the existence of an active market for such assets; the variability of the choice of depreciation methods for the intangible assets, for which IAS offers more opportunities to take into account the specifics of the use of these objects during the formation of depreciation costs; directions of disclosure of the intangible assets information in the notes to the financial statements, which are clearly defined in the IAS. Comments on the conditions for the implementation of the requirements of national and international standards for the accounting of intangible assets at the level of economic entities from the point of view of the established differences and their consequences are given. It is proved that a much higher level of transparency of information about intangible assets is provided in the case of accounting and financial reporting by entities in accordance with the requirements of IAS and IFRS.
{"title":"Methodological Principles of the Accounting for Intangible Assets from the View of National and International Standards","authors":"I. M. Dmitrenko, R. Kostyrko, V. Bondar","doi":"10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31767/SU.4(83)2018.04.13","url":null,"abstract":"The article defines the basic accounting items that determine the impact on the complex of methodological principles of accounting and reporting generalization of information about intangible assets. The complex of basic accounting positions for intangible assets is proposed in the following composition: definition of the object of accounting; method of identification; response to goodwill; how to receive and how to pay; the criteria for recognizing the asset is intrinsic; method of initial assessment; revaluation model; response to impairment; conditions for the choice and application of methods of accrual of depreciation; directions of disclosure. \u0000The key methodological principles of accounting for intangible assets are systematized on the basis of a comparative analysis of the provisions of national and international standards. As a result of the comparative analysis, both conceptually similar principles and those that are characterized by significant differences are established. In particular, this applies to: the ways of obtaining and payment of the intangible assets, for which the IAS does not provide for the free receipt and payment of an intangible asset to the authorized capital of the enterprise, which emphasizes the nature of such assets in view of the obligation to receive future economic benefits; the definition of the value of internally generated goodwill is precisely in IAS, which contributes to a reasonable separation from the value of its own intangible assets in the event of the merger of enterprises; the initial valuation of the intangible assets, for which IAS prioritizes the valuation at cost rather than fair value, as defined by National Accounting Standards, due to the dependence of the usually unpopular phenomenon - the existence of an active market for such assets; the variability of the choice of depreciation methods for the intangible assets, for which IAS offers more opportunities to take into account the specifics of the use of these objects during the formation of depreciation costs; directions of disclosure of the intangible assets information in the notes to the financial statements, which are clearly defined in the IAS. \u0000Comments on the conditions for the implementation of the requirements of national and international standards for the accounting of intangible assets at the level of economic entities from the point of view of the established differences and their consequences are given. It is proved that a much higher level of transparency of information about intangible assets is provided in the case of accounting and financial reporting by entities in accordance with the requirements of IAS and IFRS.","PeriodicalId":52812,"journal":{"name":"Statistika Ukrayini","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42450365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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