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How Can African Countries Address Climate Change Problems and Optimise Demographic Dividends for Socioeconomic Development? 非洲国家如何应对气候变化问题并为社会经济发展优化人口红利?
Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906867
S. Adedini
As all 54 countries in Africa strive to overcome their different socio-economic challenges, the climate crisis as well as the unsustainable population growth appear to be threatening the attainment of national and international development agenda across the continent. This paper presents the relationship between climate change and population dynamics; how Africa can address the problems of the climate crisis and rapid population growth, and create the potential to harness a demographic dividend and accelerate economic growth. Many African countries need to take necessary measures to achieve a rapid and sustained fertility transition, including providing access to quality family planning services, reducing adolescent fertility, educating female children, empowering women, reducing under-five mortality and expanding labour market opportunities. These are necessary conditions for fertility transition and reaping the benefit of a demographic dividend in Africa. As African countries take strategic steps to catalyse fertility transition and accelerate economic growth, there is a need to take urgent measures to fight the climate change crisis which appears to be eroding socio-economic gains across the continent. While Africa adds only a trifling fraction of the global greenhouse gas emissions, the continent bears a disproportionately significant portion of the detrimental impact of climate change. Without the necessary actions to stem and reverse the consequences (such as health crises, food insecurity due to the destruction of crops by severe weather, the destruction of livelihoods and increases in the numbers of internally displaced persons), climate change is likely to have significant negative effects on the achievement of the sustainable development goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. There is a need to address the twin problems of unsustainable population growth and climate crisis in Africa.
在非洲所有54个国家努力克服各自不同的社会经济挑战的同时,气候危机以及不可持续的人口增长似乎正在威胁着整个非洲大陆国家和国际发展议程的实现。本文介绍了气候变化与人口动态的关系;非洲如何解决气候危机和人口快速增长的问题,并创造利用人口红利和加速经济增长的潜力。许多非洲国家需要采取必要措施实现迅速和持续的生育率过渡,包括提供获得高质量计划生育服务的机会、降低青少年生育率、教育女童、赋予妇女权力、降低五岁以下儿童死亡率和扩大劳动力市场机会。这些都是非洲生育率过渡和获得人口红利的必要条件。在非洲国家采取战略步骤促进生育率过渡和加速经济增长的同时,有必要采取紧急措施应对气候变化危机,因为气候变化危机似乎正在侵蚀整个非洲大陆的社会经济收益。虽然非洲只增加了全球温室气体排放量的一小部分,但该大陆承受了气候变化有害影响的不成比例的重要部分。如果不采取必要的行动来制止和扭转这些后果(例如健康危机、因恶劣天气破坏作物而造成的粮食不安全、生计遭到破坏和国内流离失所者人数增加),气候变化很可能对实现可持续发展目标和非洲联盟《2063年议程》产生重大负面影响。非洲有必要解决不可持续的人口增长和气候危机这两个问题。
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引用次数: 0
Population and Steady-State Economy in Plato and Aristotle 柏拉图与亚里士多德的人口与稳态经济
Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906862
T. Lianos
The basic ideas of the modern steady-state economy model can be found in the writings of the two major ancient Greek philosophers, Plato and Aristotle. Plato in his Laws and Aristotle in his Politics discuss the optimal relationship between population and available land that would give enough wealth to the city and allow the citizens to enjoy the best life. They discuss questions of income inequality and approaches to population control. The guiding thought in these models is what the two philosophers define as the ‘best life’.
现代稳态经济模型的基本思想可以在古希腊两大哲学家柏拉图和亚里士多德的著作中找到。柏拉图在《法律》和亚里士多德在《政治学》中讨论了人口和可用土地之间的最佳关系,这将为城市带来足够的财富,并让公民享受最好的生活。他们讨论了收入不平等问题和控制人口的方法。这两位哲学家将这些模型中的指导思想定义为“最好的生活”。
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引用次数: 0
Family Planning Progress in 113 Countries Using a New Composite Progress Index 使用新的综合进展指数分析113个国家的计划生育进展
Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906866
A. Chaurasia
This paper analyses family planning progress in 113 countries in the context of meeting the demand for family planning through a composite progress index that measures progress in three dimensions – demand for permanent methods, demand for modern spacing methods and expansion of method choice – following the progress triangle approach. This paper suggests that in more than forty per cent of countries analysed, family planning progress remains far from satisfactory in meeting the family planning demand and there is substantial inter-country variation in the progress. In some countries, progress appears to have reversed. The inter-country variation in family planning progress is primarily the result of inter-country variation in meeting the demand for permanent methods. The analysis calls for the reinvigoration of family planning efforts to meet the target set under the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda and the FP2030 initiative.
本文分析了113个国家在满足计划生育需求的背景下的计划生育进展,通过一个综合进展指数来衡量三个维度的进展——对永久方法的需求、对现代间隔方法的需求和方法选择的扩大——遵循进步三角法。这篇论文表明,在所分析的40%以上的国家中,计划生育进展在满足计划生育需求方面仍然远远不能令人满意,而且各国之间的进展存在很大差异。在一些国家,进展似乎发生了逆转。计划生育进展的国家间差异主要是由于国家间在满足对永久方法的需求方面存在差异。该分析呼吁重振计划生育工作,以实现联合国2030年可持续发展议程和FP2030倡议设定的目标。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial Introduction 编辑介绍
Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906864
David Samways
References Alcock, I., M.P. White, T. Taylor, D.F. Coldwell, M.O. Gribble, K.L. Evans, A. Corner, S. Vardoulakis and L.E. Fleming. 2017. ‘“Green” on the ground but not in the air: Pro-environmental attitudes are related to household behaviours but not discretionary air travel’. Global Environmental Change 42: 136–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.11.005 Coole, D. 2013. ‘Too many bodies? The return and disavowal of the population question’. Environmental Politics 22 (2): 195–215. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2012.730268 Coole, D. 2021. ‘The toxification of population discourse. A genealogical study’. The Journal of Development Studies. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2021.1915479 Clayton, S. 2020. ‘Climate anxiety: Psychological responses to climate change’. Journal of Anxiety Disorders. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263 Demski, C., S. Capstick, N. Pidgeon, R. Gennaro Sposato and A. Spence. 2017. ‘Experience of extreme weather affects climate change mitigation and adaptation responses’. Climatic Change 140: 149–164. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1837-4 Ehrlich, P.R. 1968. The Population Bomb. New York: Balentine Books. Fisher, S., R. Fitzgerald and W. Poortinga. 2018. ‘Climate change. Social divisions in beliefs and behaviour’. In D. Phillips, J. Curtice, M. Phillips and J. Perry (eds), British Social Attitudes 35, pp. 146–71. London: The National Centre for Social Research. Hill, L. 2019. Aviation Index 2019 – Public attitudes towards aviation in the UK. Paris: IPSOS Mori. https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/aviation-index-2019-public-attitudes-towards-aviation-uk (accessed 27 November 2019). IPCC. 2022 Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ Kahn, M. and M. Kotchen. 2011. ‘Business cycle effects on concern about climate change: the chilling effect of recession’. Climate Change Economics 2 (3): 257–73. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007811000292 O’Neill, D.W., A.L. Fanning, W.F. Lamb and J.K. Steinberger. 2018. ‘A good life for all within planetary boundaries’. Nature Sustainability 1: 88–95. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0021-4 Simon, J.L. 1981 The Ultimate Resource. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Spence, A., W. Poortinga, C. Butler and N.F. Pidgeon. 2011. ‘Perceptions of climate change and willingness to save energy related to flood experience’. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1059 Taylor, E. 2016. ‘Concern about climate change: a paler shade of green?’ In A. Park, J. Curtice, K. Thomson, M. Phillips, E. Clery, and S. Butt (eds), British Social Attitudes: The 26th report. pp. 91–118. London: Sage. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781446212073 UN. 2022. Day of 8 Billion. https://www.un.org/en/dayof8billion WWF. 2022. Living Planet Report 2022 – Building a Nature-positive Society. R.E.A. Almond, M. Grooten, D. Juffe Bignoli and T. Petersen (eds). Gland: WWF.
参考文献Alcock, I., M.P. White, T. Taylor, D.F. Coldwell, M.O. Gribble, K.L. Evans, A. Corner, S. Vardoulakis和L.E. Fleming, 2017。“‘绿色’在地面,而不是在空中:亲环境的态度与家庭行为有关,而与自由的航空旅行无关。”全球环境变化(英文版),42(3):344 - 344。https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.11.005 cool, D. 2013。“尸体太多了?”人口问题的回归和否定。环境科学学报,22(2):195-215。https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2012.730268 cool, D. 2021。人口话语的毒化。家谱研究”。《发展研究杂志》。https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2021.1915479克莱顿,S. 2020。气候焦虑:对气候变化的心理反应。焦虑症杂志。https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102263 Demski, C., S. Capstick, N. Pidgeon, R. Gennaro Sposato and A. Spence. 2017。“极端天气的经历影响气候变化的减缓和适应反应”。气候变化140:149-164。https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1837-4埃利希,P.R. 1968。人口爆炸。纽约:情人出版社。费希尔,S., R.菲茨杰拉德和W.波廷加。2018。“气候变化。社会在信仰和行为上的分裂”。见D. Phillips, J. Curtice, M. Phillips和J. Perry(编),《英国社会态度》35,第146-71页。伦敦:国家社会研究中心。希尔,L. 2019。2019年航空指数-英国公众对航空的态度。巴黎:IPSOS Mori。https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/aviation-index-2019-public-attitudes-towards-aviation-uk(2019年11月27日访问)。联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会。2022气候变化:2022气候变化减缓,https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ Kahn, M. and M. Kotchen。2011。“商业周期对气候变化的影响:经济衰退的寒蝉效应”。气候变化经济学2(3):257-73。https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007811000292 O 'Neill, d.w., A.L. Fanning, W.F. Lamb和j.k Steinberger. 2018。“在地球边界内让所有人过上美好的生活”。自然可持续发展1:88-95。https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0021-4 Simon, J.L. 1981终极资源。普林斯顿:普林斯顿大学出版社。斯宾塞,A. W. Poortinga . C. Butler和N.F. Pidgeon. 2011。“对气候变化的认知和节约能源的意愿与洪水经历有关”。自然气候变化。https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1059 Taylor, E. 2016。“对气候变化的担忧:一抹淡绿色?”参见A. Park, J. Curtice, K. Thomson, M. Phillips, E. cleery和S. Butt(编),《英国社会态度:第26次报告》。91 - 118页。伦敦:圣人。https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781446212073联合国。2022. 80亿日。https://www.un.org/en/dayof8billion世界自然基金会。2022. 2022年地球生命力报告——建设一个对自然有利的社会。R.E.A. Almond, M. Grooten, D. Juffe Bignoli和T. Petersen(编)。腺:世界自然基金会。
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引用次数: 0
Overshoot 过度
Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906865
William Rees
The human enterprise is in overshoot; we exceed the long-term carrying capacity of Earth and are degrading the biophysical basis of our own existence. Despite decades of cumulative evidence, the world community has failed dismally in efforts to address this problem. I argue that cultural evolution and global change have outpaced bio-evolution; despite millennia of evolutionary history, the human brain and associated cognitive processes are functionally obsolete to deal with the human eco-crisis. H. sapiens tends to respond to problems in simplistic, reductionist, mechanical ways. Simplistic diagnoses lead to simplistic remedies. Politically acceptable technical ‘solutions’ to global warming assume fossil fuels are the problem, require major capital investment and are promoted on the basis of profit potential, thousands of well-paying jobs and bland assurances that climate change can readily be rectified. If successful, this would merely extend overshoot. Complexity demands a systemic approach; to address overshoot requires unprecedented international cooperation in the design of coordinated policies to ensure a socially-just economic contraction, mostly in high-income countries, and significant population reductions everywhere. The ultimate goal should be a human population in the vicinity of two billion thriving more equitably in ‘steady-state’ within the biophysical means of nature.
人类的事业已经失控;我们超出了地球的长期承载能力,并且正在破坏我们自身存在的生物物理基础。尽管有几十年的累积证据,但国际社会在解决这一问题的努力中令人沮丧地失败了。我认为文化进化和全球变化已经超过了生物进化;尽管有几千年的进化史,人类的大脑和相关的认知过程在处理人类生态危机方面已经过时了。智人倾向于用简单化、还原主义和机械的方式来回应问题。简单的诊断导致简单的治疗。政治上可接受的全球变暖技术“解决方案”假设化石燃料是问题所在,需要大量资本投资,并在潜在利润、数千个高薪工作和气候变化可以轻易纠正的平淡保证的基础上得到推广。如果成功,这只会延长超调。复杂性需要系统化的方法;要解决人口超调问题,就需要开展前所未有的国际合作,制定协调一致的政策,以确保实现社会公正的经济收缩(主要发生在高收入国家),并在世界各地大幅减少人口。最终目标应该是接近20亿的人口在自然的生物物理手段下在“稳定状态”中更加公平地繁荣。
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引用次数: 0
Overshoot 过冲
Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.1007/springerreference_20825
W. Rees
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引用次数: 0
Obituary: Herman Edward Daly, 21 July 1938 – 28 October 2022 讣告:赫尔曼·爱德华·戴利,1938年7月21日- 2022年10月28日
Pub Date : 2023-02-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906863
D. Samways
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引用次数: 0
Challenging Pronatalism Is Key to Advancing Reproductive Rights and a Sustainable Population 挑战早产是促进生殖权利和人口可持续发展的关键
Pub Date : 2022-12-08 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906861
Nandita Bajaj, Kirsten Stade
Social and environmental justice organisations have silenced discourse on human overpopulation due to fear of any association with reproductive coercion, but in doing so they have failed to acknowledge the oppressive role of pronatalism in undermining reproductive autonomy. Pronatalism, which comprises cultural and institutional forces that compel reproduction, is far more widespread, and as damaging to individual liberties as attempts to limit reproduction. The failure to recognise the enormity of pronatalism has led to the wholesale abandonment of voluntary, rights-based efforts toward a sustainable population despite widespread scientific agreement that population growth is a major driver of multiple cascading environmental crises. We examine the full range of patriarchal, cultural, familial, religious, economic and political pronatalist pressures, and argue that the reluctance to address population as a driver of the ecological crisis serves the very pronatalist forces that undermine reproductive autonomy. We posit that addressing overpopulation, and the pronatalism that drives it, must be central to international conservation and development efforts to elevate reproductive rights while also promoting planetary health.
社会和环境正义组织对人口过剩的讨论保持沉默,因为他们害怕与强迫生育联系在一起,但在这样做的过程中,他们没有承认生育主义在破坏生殖自主方面的压迫作用。包括强迫生育的文化和制度力量在内的生育主义更为普遍,对个人自由的损害与限制生育的企图一样大。由于未能认识到生育主义的严重性,导致人们大规模放弃了自愿的、基于权利的可持续人口努力,尽管科学界普遍认为人口增长是多重连锁环境危机的主要驱动因素。我们考察了父权制、文化、家庭、宗教、经济和政治等方方面面的生育压力,并认为不愿将人口作为生态危机的驱动因素来解决,恰恰是破坏生殖自主的生育主义力量。我们认为,解决人口过剩和导致人口过剩的生育主义问题,必须成为国际保护和发展努力的核心,以提高生殖权利,同时促进地球健康。
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引用次数: 2
Population dynamics, urbanisation and climate change in Africa’s intermediate cities: what can family planning contribute? 非洲中等城市的人口动态、城市化和气候变化:计划生育能做出什么贡献?
Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63799953906860
S. Adedini
Africa’s large cities are rapidly urbanising and are becoming expensive, regressive and unhealthy; hence, secondary or intermediate cities have become the continent’s backbone for absorbing most of the urban population growth. Africa’s intermediate cities will be home to more than half its urban population by 2030. However, these cities have considerable investment gaps in critical infrastructure: consequently, they are less resilient and face disproportionate disasters and risks of climate stressors and other environmental challenges. The vulnerabilities of Africa’s intermediate cities are exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and inappropriate planning. As Africa’s intermediate cities continue to experience population growth and rapid urbanisation occasioned by a youthful population, high fertility and excess of births over deaths, family planning is one of the most critical investments that city leaders and officials can make to ensure a slow urban population growth and thus buy sufficient time for governments to put critical hard infrastructure and appropriate planning in place to support healthy living. Increased investment in family planning will contribute to prosperous and resilient intermediate cities in Africa.
非洲的大城市正在迅速城市化,并变得昂贵、倒退和不健康;因此,二级或中级城市已成为非洲大陆吸收大部分城市人口增长的支柱。到2030年,非洲一半以上的城市人口将居住在中间城市。然而,这些城市在关键基础设施方面存在相当大的投资缺口:因此,它们的抵御能力较差,面临不成比例的灾害和气候压力及其他环境挑战的风险。快速的城市化和不适当的规划加剧了非洲中等城市的脆弱性。由于非洲的中间城市继续经历人口增长和快速城市化,这是由年轻人口、高生育率和出生人数超过死亡人数造成的,计划生育是城市领导人和官员可以进行的最重要的投资之一,以确保城市人口缓慢增长,从而为政府争取足够的时间建立关键的硬基础设施和适当的规划,以支持健康的生活。增加对计划生育的投资将有助于非洲中间城市的繁荣和复原力。
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引用次数: 1
Johan Rockström and Owen Gaffney, Breaking Boundaries: The Science Behind our Planet 约翰Rockström和欧文加夫尼,打破界限:我们星球背后的科学
Pub Date : 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63788304908976
Pernilla Hansson
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引用次数: 3
期刊
The Journal of Population and Sustainability
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