Society has so far failed to create a sustainable economic system because all conventional attempts to change the current paradigm lead to a short-term decline in the rate economic growth, resulting in higher inequality and unemployment, outcomes which are politically unacceptable. This article shows how to overcome this hurdle, by adopting 13 unconventional policies which reduce unemployment and inequality while cutting greenhouse-gas emissions, regardless of what happens to economic growth, and so allow for a gradual transition to a sustainable system in short-termist societies.
{"title":"Solving the human sustainability problem in short-termist societies","authors":"G. Maxton, J. Randers","doi":"10.3197/jps.2017.1.2.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2017.1.2.11","url":null,"abstract":"Society has so far failed to create a sustainable economic system because all conventional attempts to change the current paradigm lead to a short-term decline in the rate economic growth, resulting in higher inequality and unemployment, outcomes which are politically unacceptable. This article shows how to overcome this hurdle, by adopting 13 unconventional policies which reduce unemployment and inequality while cutting greenhouse-gas emissions, regardless of what happens to economic growth, and so allow for a gradual transition to a sustainable system in short-termist societies.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47034144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Postmaterial values with their reduced emphasis on accumulating material possessions lead to greater political support for limits on environmental pollution and to a less entropic way of life that increases environmental sustainability. Similarly, reducing human fertility to replacement levels can stabilize population and increase environmental sustainability in the future by reducing the pressure of population growth on environmental resources. In recent history, increases in per capita economic well being has been a primary driver of expansion in postmaterialism and reduce human fertility worldwide. The irony of this phenomena is that economic development potentially destructive to the environment leads to more postmaterialism and reduced fertility, both of which benefit environmental sustainability. In this article, the underpinnings of these conclusions will be set out as well as possible ways around the dilemma they bring.
{"title":"Postmaterial Experience Economics, Population, and Environmental Sustainability","authors":"D. Booth","doi":"10.3197/jps.2018.2.2.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2018.2.2.33","url":null,"abstract":"Postmaterial values with their reduced emphasis on accumulating material possessions lead to greater political support for limits on environmental pollution and to a less entropic way of life that increases environmental sustainability. Similarly, reducing human fertility to replacement levels can stabilize population and increase environmental sustainability in the future by reducing the pressure of population growth on environmental resources. In recent history, increases in per capita economic well being has been a primary driver of expansion in postmaterialism and reduce human fertility worldwide. The irony of this phenomena is that economic development potentially destructive to the environment leads to more postmaterialism and reduced fertility, both of which benefit environmental sustainability. In this article, the underpinnings of these conclusions will be set out as well as possible ways around the dilemma they bring.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47044854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Brief History of IPAT","authors":"J. Holdren","doi":"10.3197/jps.2018.2.2.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2018.2.2.66","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41937164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A transformation in human values in a ‘post-materialist’ direction by middle-class youth around the world may be setting the stage for a new reality of near-zero economic growth and a sustainable and healthy global biosphere. Evidence from the World Values Survey suggests that a global expansion of post-material values and experiences leads to (1) a reduction in consumption-oriented activities, (2) a shift to more environmentally friendly forms of life that include living at higher, more energy efficient urban densities, and (3) active political support for environmental improvement. Such behavioral shifts provide a foundation for a turn to a slow-growth or even no-growth economy in comparatively affluent countries to the benefit of a healthier global biosphere. To set the stage for a ‘post-growth green economy’ that features climate stability and a substantially reduced ecological footprint, the timing is right for a ‘Green New Deal’ that focuses on de-carbonizing the global economy and has the side-benefit of fostering an economic recovery from the Covid-19 global recession currently underway. The financing of global decarbonization by the world’s wealthiest countries is affordable and could stimulate much needed economic improvements in developing countries by creating within them modern, efficient clean energy systems that can serve as a basis for increased economic prosperity. Such prosperity will in turn accelerate declines in population fertility and result ultimately in reduced global population growth.
{"title":"Achieving a post-growth green economy","authors":"D. Booth","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.57","url":null,"abstract":"A transformation in human values in a ‘post-materialist’ direction by middle-class youth around the world may be setting the stage for a new reality of near-zero economic growth and a sustainable and healthy global biosphere. Evidence from the World Values Survey suggests that a global expansion of post-material values and experiences leads to (1) a reduction in consumption-oriented activities, (2) a shift to more environmentally friendly forms of life that include living at higher, more energy efficient urban densities, and (3) active political support for environmental improvement. Such behavioral shifts provide a foundation for a turn to a slow-growth or even no-growth economy in comparatively affluent countries to the benefit of a healthier global biosphere. To set the stage for a ‘post-growth green economy’ that features climate stability and a substantially reduced ecological footprint, the timing is right for a ‘Green New Deal’ that focuses on de-carbonizing the global economy and has the side-benefit of fostering an economic recovery from the Covid-19 global recession currently underway. The financing of global decarbonization by the world’s wealthiest countries is affordable and could stimulate much needed economic improvements in developing countries by creating within them modern, efficient clean energy systems that can serve as a basis for increased economic prosperity. Such prosperity will in turn accelerate declines in population fertility and result ultimately in reduced global population growth. ","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41531681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A quarter century after Joel Cohen asked the essential question “How Many People can the Earth Support?”, this article offers an answer, based on new science and geographical analysis, and asserts that we have long ago exceeded our planet’s long term ecological carrying capacity that optimistically can only support 3 billion modern industrialized humans. While agreeing that strategies based on reducing consumption are sorely needed to live within our planet’s carrying capacity, the impending explosion of the global middle class promises to render consumption-only strategies inadequate, in the face of runaway population growth and the accumulation of massive ecological debt. Noting recent studies that project global population to begin to decrease in 2064 after peaking at 9.7B, it is asked why we don’t act now to accelerate this already inevitable trend with enhanced investment in women’s empowerment, education, and access to family planning technologies. This paper calls for a goal of achieving 1.5 total fertility rate (TFR) by 2030 to bend the global population curve, begin relieving the ecological burden humanity has foisted on our planet, and to decrease human population as we approach 2100 to something closer to the long term ecological carrying capacity of our planet.
{"title":"We know how many people the earth can support","authors":"Christopher L. Tucker","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.77","url":null,"abstract":"A quarter century after Joel Cohen asked the essential question “How Many People can the Earth Support?”, this article offers an answer, based on new science and geographical analysis, and asserts that we have long ago exceeded our planet’s long term ecological carrying capacity that optimistically can only support 3 billion modern industrialized humans. While agreeing that strategies based on reducing consumption are sorely needed to live within our planet’s carrying capacity, the impending explosion of the global middle class promises to render consumption-only strategies inadequate, in the face of runaway population growth and the accumulation of massive ecological debt. Noting recent studies that project global population to begin to decrease in 2064 after peaking at 9.7B, it is asked why we don’t act now to accelerate this already inevitable trend with enhanced investment in women’s empowerment, education, and access to family planning technologies. This paper calls for a goal of achieving 1.5 total fertility rate (TFR) by 2030 to bend the global population curve, begin relieving the ecological burden humanity has foisted on our planet, and to decrease human population as we approach 2100 to something closer to the long term ecological carrying capacity of our planet.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49340842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
At the time of writing, the CoViD-19 pandemic was in its second wave with infections doubling every several days to two weeks in many parts of the world. Such geometric (or exponential) expansion is the hallmark of unconstrained population growth in all species ranging from submicroscopic viral particles through bacteria to whales and humans; this suggests a kind of ‘fractal geometry’ in bio-reproductive patterns. In nature, population outbreaks are invariably reversed by the onset of both endogenous and exogenous negative feedback – reduced fecundity, resource shortages, spatial competition, disease, etc., serve to restore the reference population to below carrying capacity, sometimes by dramatic collapse. H. sapiens is no exception – our species is nearing the peak of a fossil-fueled ~200 year plague-like population outbreak that is beginning to trigger serious manifestations of negative feedback, including climate change and CoViD-19 itself. The human population will decline dramatically; theoretically, we can choose between a chaotic collapse imposed by nature or international cooperation to plan a managed, equitable contraction of the human enterprise.
{"title":"fractal biology of plague and the future of civilization","authors":"W. Rees","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.15","url":null,"abstract":"At the time of writing, the CoViD-19 pandemic was in its second wave with infections doubling every several days to two weeks in many parts of the world. Such geometric (or exponential) expansion is the hallmark of unconstrained population growth in all species ranging from submicroscopic viral particles through bacteria to whales and humans; this suggests a kind of ‘fractal geometry’ in bio-reproductive patterns. In nature, population outbreaks are invariably reversed by the onset of both endogenous and exogenous negative feedback – reduced fecundity, resource shortages, spatial competition, disease, etc., serve to restore the reference population to below carrying capacity, sometimes by dramatic collapse. H. sapiens is no exception – our species is nearing the peak of a fossil-fueled ~200 year plague-like population outbreak that is beginning to trigger serious manifestations of negative feedback, including climate change and CoViD-19 itself. The human population will decline dramatically; theoretically, we can choose between a chaotic collapse imposed by nature or international cooperation to plan a managed, equitable contraction of the human enterprise.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44133016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses population effects of increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions between 1990–2019 following a decomposition framework with interaction effects. The analysis has also been carried out for the 44 countries which accounted for most of the increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions during 1990–2019. Population growth was found to have a significant effect on both the increase in energy use and CO2 emissions at the global level, although the contribution of population growth to these increases has varied widely across countries. There is a need for integrating population factors in the sustainable development processes, particularly efforts directed towards environmental sustainability.
{"title":"Population effects of increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions: 1990–2019","authors":"A. Chaurasia","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.87","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.87","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses population effects of increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions between 1990–2019 following a decomposition framework with interaction effects. The analysis has also been carried out for the 44 countries which accounted for most of the increase in world energy use and CO2 emissions during 1990–2019. Population growth was found to have a significant effect on both the increase in energy use and CO2 emissions at the global level, although the contribution of population growth to these increases has varied widely across countries. There is a need for integrating population factors in the sustainable development processes, particularly efforts directed towards environmental sustainability.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48829416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Marxists have long moved beyond a perception of Marx as a Promethean ecological vandal. Yet those disputing his environmental credentials are generally united in deploring the unhappy history of population control. They implicitly accept the idea of currently forecast future population levels as consistent with a Marxist view of human emancipation. This assumption should be challenged, on the basis of what resources a truly unalienated future may require in order to achieve real freedom for each future individual.
{"title":"Marx, population and freedom","authors":"J. Roche","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.31","url":null,"abstract":"Marxists have long moved beyond a perception of Marx as a Promethean ecological vandal. Yet those disputing his environmental credentials are generally united in deploring the unhappy history of population control. They implicitly accept the idea of currently forecast future population levels as consistent with a Marxist view of human emancipation. This assumption should be challenged, on the basis of what resources a truly unalienated future may require in order to achieve real freedom for each future individual.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47081636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Societies need to introduce much more radical emissions reductions targets than those agreed in Paris if they are to successfully slow the pace of change. Covid-19 makes this possible. By forcing aviation and other transportation businesses to downsize emissions have started to fall. By paying people to stay at home governments have shown that they can support them during a transition. Societies should grasp this unique chance for radical social and economic reform.
{"title":"Humanity’s environmental problems can only be fixed by changing the system. The coronavirus offers a chance.","authors":"Graeme P. Maxton","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.5.1.47","url":null,"abstract":"Societies need to introduce much more radical emissions reductions targets than those agreed in Paris if they are to successfully slow the pace of change. Covid-19 makes this possible. By forcing aviation and other transportation businesses to downsize emissions have started to fall. By paying people to stay at home governments have shown that they can support them during a transition. Societies should grasp this unique chance for radical social and economic reform.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46631076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning.
{"title":"Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city","authors":"Ripan Debnath","doi":"10.3197/jps.2020.4.2.45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.4.2.45","url":null,"abstract":"Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47452497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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