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Bending the Curve by 2030 到2030年扭转曲线
Pub Date : 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63788304908977
Christopher Tucker
Half the global population has birth rates below replacement and several advanced nations already have birth rates half that. There is no question that restoring a sustainable population via low birth rates is feasible. There is even a scientific consensus around the non-coercive, empowering strategies focused on women and girls that could expedite the inevitable process of bending the global population curve. The question is simply the level of investment required to make it happen. As such, this article explores the ‘art of the possible’, walking us through how we could approach a safe harbour population of three billion soon after 2100 – a new lower population plateau that would enable humanity to pay down the massive ecological debt it has accrued over recent centuries.
全球一半人口的出生率低于更替水平,一些发达国家的出生率已经达到了这个水平的一半。毫无疑问,通过低出生率恢复可持续的人口是可行的。人们甚至对以妇女和女孩为重点的非强制性、增强权能战略达成了科学共识,这些战略可以加速扭曲全球人口曲线的不可避免的进程。问题仅仅是实现这一目标所需的投资水平。因此,本文探讨了“可能性的艺术”,引导我们了解如何在2100年之后不久达到30亿人口的安全港——一个新的人口较低的平台,将使人类能够偿还近几个世纪以来积累的巨额生态债务。
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引用次数: 0
Remittance Flows and the Environmental Degradation–Migration Nexus 汇款流动与环境恶化——移民关系
Pub Date : 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63788304908975
Travis L Edwards
The net effect on the environment from migration into developed countries has received little attention in existing literature. Yet, this issue has important policy implications – e.g., nativists’ support of anti-immigration policy for achieving pollution reduction targets. This research uses panel data for 127 countries from years 1971–2012 to analyse how migration affects greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through remittance flows. The findings suggest higher remittances lead to lower GHG emissions. Further, the estimated decrease in GHG emissions more than compensates for any potential increase in global GHG emissions from migration into developed countries. These results suggest that pollution alone does not justify policies restricting immigration.
在现有文献中,移民到发达国家对环境的净影响很少受到关注。然而,这个问题具有重要的政策含义,例如,本土主义者支持反移民政策以实现减少污染的目标。本研究使用1971-2012年127个国家的面板数据,分析移民如何通过汇款流动影响温室气体排放。研究结果表明,汇款越多,温室气体排放量就越低。此外,估计的温室气体排放量的减少足以弥补发达国家移民造成的全球温室气体排放量的任何潜在增加。这些结果表明,污染本身并不能成为限制移民政策的理由。
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引用次数: 1
Increasing Pesticide Use and Knowledge of the Health Effects of Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals in the Environment: A Study of Three Communities in Ghana 增加农药的使用和对环境中破坏内分泌化学物质健康影响的认识:对加纳三个社区的研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-07 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63788304908974
B. Ason, David Kofi Essumang
Population growth and urbanisation are contributing to the growth of the use of pesticides in Africa. However, poor understanding of the health and environmental effects of these chemicals represents a significant risk to both human health and ecosystems. Knowledge of health effects of pesticide use and endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) was assessed using 300 respondents in three communities of Ghana. The data were fitted to bivariate and multivariate ordinary least squares regression models. About 76 per cent of the respondents used pesticides while 82 per cent had no knowledge of human diseases associated with pesticide use and EDCs. At the bivariate level, individuals who used pesticides had less knowledge of health effects of EDCs and pesticide use compared to their counterparts who did not use pesticides. Urban residents had more knowledge compared to rural dwellers and this robust relationship persisted at the multivariate level. Females of all ages had more knowledge of pesticides and EDCs’ effects than their male conterparts. Formal and informal education is required to improve knowledge on appropriate chemical use.
人口增长和城市化正在促进非洲杀虫剂使用的增长。然而,对这些化学品的健康和环境影响了解不足,对人类健康和生态系统都构成重大风险。使用加纳三个社区的300名受访者对杀虫剂使用和内分泌干扰物对健康影响的知识进行了评估。将数据拟合到二变量和多变量普通最小二乘回归模型中。约76%的受访者使用杀虫剂,82%的受访者对与杀虫剂使用和EDC相关的人类疾病一无所知。在双变量水平上,与不使用杀虫剂的人相比,使用杀虫剂的个人对EDC和杀虫剂使用的健康影响了解较少。与农村居民相比,城市居民拥有更多的知识,这种强有力的关系在多变量水平上持续存在。所有年龄段的雌性都比雄性更了解杀虫剂和EDC的影响。需要进行正规和非正规教育,以提高适当使用化学品的知识。
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引用次数: 0
Public Perceptions on Population: U.S. Survey Results 公众对人口的看法:美国调查结果
Pub Date : 2022-01-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63772236608057
Kelley Dennings, Sarah Baillie, Ryan Ricciardi, Adoma Addo
The Center for Biological Diversity conducted a paid, self-selected, national online survey on the knowledge, attitudes, behavioural intentions and norms around population growth to inform a theory of change that highlights education and reproductive healthcare as solutions. We surveyed 899 people across the US. The sample was recruited via MTurk and Survey Monkey was used to collect the data. Results were segmented by demographics to assist in building culturally sensitive, inclusive and effective campaigns advocating for rights-based solutions to population growth. Results demonstrated that the public draws a correlation between the number of people on the planet and the alarming rate of animal extinction.
生物多样性中心(Center for Biological Diversity)进行了一项有偿的、自我选择的全国性在线调查,调查内容涉及人口增长相关的知识、态度、行为意图和规范,目的是为一种强调教育和生殖保健是解决方案的变革理论提供信息。我们在美国调查了899人。通过MTurk招募样本,并使用Survey Monkey收集数据。结果按人口统计分类,以协助开展对文化敏感、包容和有效的运动,倡导以权利为基础解决人口增长问题。结果表明,公众在地球上的人口数量和动物灭绝的惊人速度之间建立了联系。
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引用次数: 2
Population and Sustainability: Reviewing the Relationship Between Population Growth and Environmental Change 人口与可持续性:人口增长与环境变化关系综述
Pub Date : 2022-01-03 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63772239426891
D. Samways
At a high level of abstraction, causally connecting population growth and environmental degradation is intuitively appealing. However, while it is clear that population size is a critical factor in the size and power of social systems, and hence in environmental impact, the relationship between human numbers and environmental change is complex. In particular, the long timescales involved in population growth and decline, along with the shifting role of economic development in both population growth itself and environmental impact, obfuscate the role of population size as a multiplier of impact. Moreover, the protracted nature of demographic change makes population size seem like an intractable problem, the outcome of natural processes which are not only beyond choice, but, critically, morally perilous. In this review of the role of population size in environmental impact, I argue that choices, norms, and values, as well as material factors, are interwoven and inseparable in the environmental impact of our species. Furthermore, the consideration of human welfare and wellbeing is central to arguments regarding an environmentally sustainable population.
在高度抽象的层面上,把人口增长和环境退化因果联系起来,直觉上很吸引人。然而,虽然人口规模显然是社会制度规模和力量的一个关键因素,因而也是环境影响的一个关键因素,但人口数量与环境变化之间的关系是复杂的。特别是,人口增长和下降所涉及的长时间尺度,以及经济发展在人口增长本身和环境影响方面的作用的转变,使人口规模作为影响乘数的作用模糊不清。此外,人口变化的长期性使人口规模看起来像是一个棘手的问题,是自然过程的结果,不仅无法选择,而且至关重要的是,在道德上是危险的。在这篇关于人口规模在环境影响中的作用的综述中,我认为选择、规范和价值观,以及物质因素,在我们物种的环境影响中是相互交织和不可分割的。此外,对人类福利和福祉的考虑是关于环境可持续人口的争论的核心。
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引用次数: 5
Wager on Global Food Prices 2001–2020: Who Won and What Does it Mean? 赌赌2001-2020年全球粮食价格:谁赢了,这意味着什么?
Pub Date : 2021-12-14 DOI: 10.3197/jps.63772238772430
Stan Becker, D. Lam
This paper presents the results of a 2011 wager between Stan Becker and David Lam about the trajectory of world food prices for the period 2011–2020 versus the period 2002–2010. The wager was a response to Lam’s 2011 presidential address to the Population Association of America, which showed that many health and socio-demographic indicators had improved over the previous fifty years, in spite of the addition of four billion people to the world’s population. Lam lost the wager, with the Food and Agriculture Organization’s price index for five food groups averaging about twenty per cent higher for 2011–2020 than for 2001–2010. Becker and Lam discuss the background of the wager, give their differing interpretations of the outcome and discuss future trends in population, food production and food prices. Lam gives a more optimistic perspective on future trends, while Becker raises concerns about rapid degradation of planetary ecosystems, species loss and global warming.
本文介绍了Stan Becker和David Lam在2011年对2011-2020年与2002-2010年世界粮食价格轨迹的押注结果。这一赌注是对林2011年在美国人口协会发表的总统演讲的回应,该演讲显示,尽管世界人口增加了40亿,但许多健康和社会人口指标在过去50年中都有所改善。林输掉了赌注,粮食及农业组织(Food and Agriculture Organization)公布的2011-2020年五大食品集团的价格指数平均比2001-2010年高出约20%。Becker和Lam讨论了赌注的背景,对结果做出了不同的解释,并讨论了人口、粮食生产和粮食价格的未来趋势。Lam对未来趋势提出了更乐观的看法,而Becker则对行星生态系统的快速退化、物种损失和全球变暖表示担忧。
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引用次数: 1
It’s Time to Revisit the Cairo Consensus 是时候重新审视开罗共识了
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.3197/jps.2021.5.2.63
Christopher Tucker
Just over a quarter century ago, the so-called ‘Cairo Consensus’ was forged, fundamentally improving how governments worldwide, international organisations, and the NGO community approached women’s reproductive health and reproductive rights on the world stage. Yet, the deafening silence this consensus offered on issues of runaway population growth has had massive repercussions on the world we live in today, with the ever-increasing human footprint fuelling climate change and ecological destruction on a scale that was entirely predicted. Given what we know now about how empowering, just and ethical strategies focused on women and girls can effectively bend the global population curve, it is time that we revisit the Cairo Consensus.
就在四分之一个多世纪前,所谓的“开罗共识”形成了,从根本上改善了世界各国政府、国际组织和非政府组织在世界舞台上处理妇女生殖健康和生殖权利问题的方式。然而,这一共识在人口增长失控问题上发出的震耳欲聋的沉默,对我们今天生活的世界产生了巨大影响,不断增加的人类足迹助长了气候变化和生态破坏,其规模完全可以预测。鉴于我们现在所知道的以妇女和女孩为重点的赋权、公正和道德战略如何有效地扭转全球人口曲线,现在是我们重新审视《开罗共识》的时候了。
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引用次数: 2
Outside The City of Grace: appraising dystopia and global sustainability 在恩典之城之外:评估反乌托邦和全球可持续性
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.3197/jps.2021.5.2.75
D. Wadley
'The City of Grace: An Urban Manifesto' (Wadley, 2020) models an ecotech settlement, aiming to achieve economic and social sustainability over a substantial period. The City is intended to be anti-dystopian and non-exclusive, with the possibility of replication in receptive settings. In this rejoinder to the book, the potential for dystopia attending population and sustainability issues in the outside world is appraised. Foundations are established in general systems, complexity and chaos theories, and an interpretation of procedural and substantive rationality. Two possible global failure modes are examined, one contained within the human sphere involving the future of capital and labour, and an external one founded in the familiar problematics of the human-environment nexus. Dilatory responses in advanced societies to these dilemmas are outlined. The subsequent prognosis regarding population and sustainability co-opts a meta-theory from environmental management to assess the viability of possible counterstrategies to dystopia although, in conclusion, its existence is instantiated.
《恩典之城:城市宣言》(Wadley, 2020)模拟了一个生态技术定居点,旨在在相当长的一段时间内实现经济和社会的可持续性。这座城市旨在成为反乌托邦和非排他性的,并有可能在可接受的环境中复制。在这本书的答辩中,反乌托邦在外部世界参与人口和可持续性问题的可能性进行了评估。基础建立在一般系统,复杂性和混沌理论,以及程序和实体合理性的解释。研究了两种可能的全球失败模式,一种包含在涉及资本和劳动力未来的人类领域内,另一种是建立在人类与环境关系的熟悉问题上的外部失败模式。本文概述了发达社会对这些困境的迟缓反应。随后关于人口和可持续性的预测采用了环境管理的元理论来评估反乌托邦可能对策的可行性,尽管在结论中,它的存在是实例化的。
{"title":"Outside The City of Grace: appraising dystopia and global sustainability","authors":"D. Wadley","doi":"10.3197/jps.2021.5.2.75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2021.5.2.75","url":null,"abstract":"'The City of Grace: An Urban Manifesto' (Wadley, 2020) models an ecotech settlement, aiming to achieve economic and social sustainability over a substantial period. The City is intended to be anti-dystopian and non-exclusive, with the possibility of replication in receptive settings. In this rejoinder to the book, the potential for dystopia attending population and sustainability issues in the outside world is appraised. Foundations are established in general systems, complexity and chaos theories, and an interpretation of procedural and substantive rationality. Two possible global failure modes are examined, one contained within the human sphere involving the future of capital and labour, and an external one founded in the familiar problematics of the human-environment nexus. Dilatory responses in advanced societies to these dilemmas are outlined. The subsequent prognosis regarding population and sustainability co-opts a meta-theory from environmental management to assess the viability of possible counterstrategies to dystopia although, in conclusion, its existence is instantiated.","PeriodicalId":52907,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Population and Sustainability","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46969408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Post-materialism as a basis for achieving environmental sustainability 后唯物主义是实现环境可持续性的基础
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.3197/jps.2021.5.2.97
D. Booth
A recent article in this journal, 'Achieving a Post-Growth Green Economy', argued that a turn to post-material values by younger generations may be setting the stage for a more environmentally friendly, post-growth green global economy. To expand the foundations for the possible emergence of such an economy, the current article offers empirical evidence from the World Values Survey for the propositions that individual post-material values and experiences leads to (1) a reduction in consumption-oriented activities, (2) a shift to more environmentally friendly forms of life that include living at higher, more energy efficient urban densities, (3) having families with fewer children, and (4) greater political support for environmental improvement. Such behavioral shifts provide a foundation for a no-growth, or even a negative-growth, economy among the affluent nations of the world leading to declining rates of energy and materials throughput to the benefit of a healthier global biosphere.
该杂志最近的一篇文章《实现后增长期绿色经济》认为,年轻一代转向后物质价值观可能为更环保、后增长期的绿色全球经济奠定了基础。为了扩大这种经济可能出现的基础,本文提供了世界价值观调查的经验证据,证明个人的后物质价值观和经历会导致(1)以消费为导向的活动减少,(2)向更环保的生活形式转变,包括生活在更高的环境中,更节能的城市密度,(3)拥有更少孩子的家庭,以及(4)对环境改善的更大政治支持。这种行为转变为世界富裕国家的经济无增长甚至负增长奠定了基础,导致能源和材料生产率下降,从而有利于更健康的全球生物圈。
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引用次数: 1
Nudging interventions on sustainable food consumption: a systematic review 推动可持续粮食消费的干预措施:系统回顾
Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.3197/jps.2021.5.2.17
Becky Blackford
As population growth continues, sustainable food behaviour is essential to help reduce the anthropogenic modification of natural systems, driven by food production and consumption, resulting in environmental and health burdens and impacts. Nudging, a behavioural concept, has potential implications for tackling these issues, encouraging change in individuals’ intentions and decision-making via indirect proposition and reinforcement; however, lack of empirical evidence for effectiveness and the controversial framework for ethical analysis create challenges. This systematic review evaluated the effectiveness of nudging interventions on sustainable food choices, searching five databases to identify the effectiveness of such interventions. Of the 742 identified articles, 14 articles met the eligibility criteria and were included in this review. Overall, the potential of certain nudging interventions for encouraging sustainable food choices were found in strategies that targeted ‘system 1’ thinking (automatic, intuitive and non-conscious, relying on heuristics, mental shortcuts and biases), producing outcomes which were more statistically significant compared to interventions requiring consumer deliberation. Gender, sensory influences, and attractiveness of target dishes were highlighted as pivotal factors in sustainable food choice, hence research that considers these factors in conjunction with nudging interventions is required.
随着人口的持续增长,可持续的粮食行为对于帮助减少由粮食生产和消费驱动的对自然系统的人为改变至关重要,从而造成环境和健康负担和影响。Nudging是一个行为概念,它对解决这些问题具有潜在的影响,通过间接提议和强化鼓励个人改变意图和决策;然而,缺乏有效性的经验证据以及有争议的伦理分析框架带来了挑战。这项系统审查评估了推动可持续粮食选择干预措施的有效性,搜索了五个数据库以确定此类干预措施的效果。在742篇已确定的文章中,有14篇文章符合资格标准,并被纳入本次审查。总的来说,在针对“系统1”思维(自动、直观和无意识,依赖启发式、心理捷径和偏见)的策略中,发现了鼓励可持续食物选择的某些推动干预措施的潜力,与需要消费者深思熟虑的干预措施相比,这些干预措施产生的结果在统计上更显著。性别、感官影响和目标菜肴的吸引力被强调为可持续食物选择的关键因素,因此需要将这些因素与推动干预措施结合起来进行研究。
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引用次数: 2
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The Journal of Population and Sustainability
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