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Analisis Pembentukan Sebaran Bivariat Berbasis Copula Antara Luas Area Terbakar dan Curah Hujan di Sumatra Bagian Selatan 基于燃烧区外部区域与苏门答腊南部降雨共同作用的二元分布形成分析
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.42024.217-227
S. Nurdiati, M. Najib, Muhammad Zidane Bayu
Forest and land fires in Indonesia have a close relationship with the surrounding climatic conditions, such as rainfall. One model that can be used to analyze the relationship between the two variables is the copula. However, apart from rainfall, global climate phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also have an influence on forest and land fires. Therefore, this study analyzes and models the copula-based co-distribution between rainfall and burned area by partitioning the data based on ENSO and IOD phenomena. The method used is copula-based joint distribution analysis which is estimated using the Inference of Function for Margins (IFM) method. Several copula functions are used to form joint distributions, such as Gaussian, student’s t, Clayton, Gumbel, Frank, Joe, Galambos, BB1 (Clayton-Gumbel), BB6 (Joe-Clayton), BB7 (Joe-Gumbel), and BB8 (Joe-Frank). The results showed that the highest correlation to the burned area occurred for the two months cumulative rainfall data based on the Kendall-Tau correlation. Each ENSO and IOD condition has different characteristics, indicated by the differences in the selected univariate distribution and copula function. Probabilities of burning areas are higher when rainfall is low. In addition, the higher the ENSO and IOD indices, the higher the probability of burned area, during low rainfall. Based on the conditional probabilities, the Positive IOD condition has relatively more significant influence than the Moderate-Strong El Nino. Apart from the Moderate-Strong El Nino and Positive IOD, another condition that has a conditional probability for a relatively high is Weak El Nino conditions. Other conditions, such as La Nina, normal ENSO, negative IOD, and Neutral IOD, have a conditional probability of a very small burn area.
印度尼西亚的森林和土地与周围的气候条件(如降雨量)有着密切的关系。一个可以用来分析两个变量之间关系的模型是copula。然而,除了降雨之外,厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)和印度洋偶极子(IOD)等全球气候现象也会对森林和土地产生影响。因此,本研究通过基于ENSO和IOD现象的数据划分,分析和模拟了降雨和烧伤面积之间基于copula的共同分布。所使用的方法是基于copula的联合分布分析,该分析使用边际函数推断(IFM)方法进行估计。几个copula函数用于形成联合分布,如Gaussian、student's t、Clayton、Gumbel、Frank、Joe、Galambos、BB1(Clayton Gumbel)、BB6(Joe Clayton)、BB7(Joe Gumbel和BB8(Joe Frank)。结果表明,基于Kendall-Tau相关性的两个月累积降雨量数据与烧伤面积的相关性最高。每种ENSO和IOD条件都有不同的特征,通过所选单变量分布和copula函数的差异来表示。降雨量较低时,燃烧区域的可能性较高。此外,ENSO和IOD指数越高,在低降雨量期间发生燃烧区域的概率就越高。根据条件概率,正IOD条件比中等强度厄尔尼诺具有相对更大的影响。除了中等强度的厄尔尼诺和正IOD外,另一种条件概率相对较高的条件是弱厄尔尼诺条件。其他条件,如拉尼娜现象、正常ENSO、负IOD和中性IOD,具有非常小的烧伤面积的条件概率。
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引用次数: 0
Estimasi Parameter Model Regresi Nonparametrik Birespon berdasarkan Penalized Spline Pada Data Tindak Kriminal di Indonesia (Studi Kasus Jumlah Kejadian Kejahatan terhadap Kesusilaan dan Jumlah Kejadian Kejahatan terhadap Fisik di Indonesia Tahun 2020) 基于惩罚样条的印尼刑事诉讼数据估计参数模型非参数回归响应
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.41977.203-215
Reffa Ayu Anggraeni, Nurul Gusriani, Kankan Parmikanti
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引用次数: 0
Analisis Dinamik Penyebaran Model Covid-19 dengan Faktor Vaksinasi dengan menggunakan Metode Runge-Kutta Fehlberg 采用Runge-Kutta Fehlberg方法,Covid-19模型疫苗传播的动态分析
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.40224.115-126
Rizky Ashgi, S. Purwani, N. Anggriani
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引用次数: 0
Sifat-Sifat Subgrup Fuzzy Intuitionistik atas Norm (t-Norm dan s-Norm) Norma(标准与标准)上的直觉模糊子群性质
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.40461.141-155
Rizka 'Abid Fadhiilah, Budi Surodjo
Fuzzy subgroups can be generalized into intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups and fuzzy subgroups over t -norm. Furthermore, intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups and fuzzy subgroups over t -norm can be generalized into intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm). The property of product under norms ( t -norm and s -norm) of two intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm) and the property of image of intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm) under group homomorphism were dis-cussed by Rasuli [8] . However, by giving counterexamples, it can be shown that both properties are not true. In this article, we reinvestigate the property of product under norms ( t -norm and s -norm) of two intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm) and the property of image of intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm) under group homomorphism. We use the literature study method in this research. The results show that the property of product under norms ( t -norm and s -norm) of two intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm) and the property of image of intuitionistic fuzzy subgroups with respect to norms ( t -norm and s -norm) under group homomorphism in [8] can be valid if t -norm and s -norm are continuous.
模糊子群可以推广为直觉模糊子群和t-范数上的模糊子群。此外,直觉模糊子群和t-范数上的模糊子群可以推广为关于范数(t-范数和s-范数)的直觉模糊子群。Rasuli[8]讨论了两个直觉模糊子群关于范数(t-范数和s-范数)的范数下乘积的性质和群同态下直觉模糊子群相对于范数(t-模和s-模)的映象的性质。然而,通过给出反例,可以表明这两个性质都不是真的。在本文中,我们重新研究了两个直觉模糊子群关于范数(t-范数和s-范数)的范数(t-模和s-模)下乘积的性质,以及群同态下直觉模糊子群相对于范数(t-范和s-范)的映象的性质。本研究采用文献研究的方法。结果表明,如果t-范数和s-范数是连续的,则[8]中的两个直觉模糊子群关于范数(t-范数和s-范数)的范数下乘积的性质(t-范数与s-范数)和群同态下直觉模糊子群相对于范数(t-模和s-范数)的映象的性质是有效的。
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引用次数: 1
Comparison of Zillmer and Premium Sufficiency Reserve Method using the Vasicek Stochastic Interest Rate Model 基于Vasicek随机利率模型的Zillmer和保费充足率准备金方法的比较
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.41918.189-202
M. I. Rachman, Anasya Daffa Pertiwi
An accurate calculation of premium reserves will ensure that the insurance company can pay claims. Premium reserves are funds collected by insurance companies which are the difference between the sum insured and the value of payments during the insurance period prepared for claim payments. There are several methods for calculating premium reserves, but the methods that are the focus of this study are the Zillmer method and the Premium Sufficiency method, extensions of the prospective method. This study aims to compare the two methods using the Vasicek model to determine the stochastic interest rate. Then the Ordinary Least Square method is used to estimate the Vasicek interest rate parameter. In comparing the two premium reserve methods, this study builds a simulation for reference male and female insureds using Bank Indonesia reference rate data for 2017-2021 and the Indonesian Mortality Table IV from 2019. The results of this study indicate that premiums reserve calculations using the Zillmer method yield less value than the Premium Adequacy method for both male and female insureds.
准确计算保费准备金将确保保险公司能够支付索赔。保费准备金是保险公司收取的资金,是保险金额与保险期间为索赔准备的付款价值之间的差额。保费准备金的计算方法有几种,但本研究的重点是Zillmer方法和保费充足率方法,它们是前瞻性方法的扩展。本研究旨在比较使用Vasicek模型确定随机利率的两种方法。然后采用普通最小二乘法对瓦西切克利率参数进行估计。在比较两种保费准备金方法时,本研究使用印尼银行2017-2021年的参考费率数据和2019年的印尼死亡率表IV,为参考男性和女性被保险人建立了一个模拟。这项研究的结果表明,对于男性和女性被保险人来说,使用Zillmer方法计算保费准备金的价值低于保费充足率方法。
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引用次数: 0
Pengaruh Investasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Jawa Timur 投资对东爪哇经济增长的影响
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.40732.157-166
Tiarra Dellaviyanie Muryanto, Yuniarsih Farida, Nurissaidah Ulinnuha, Hani Khaulasari, Dian Yuliati
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引用次数: 0
Invers Matriks Leslie Bentuk Khusus Ordo n×n (n≥4) 分配变量Leslie体制的特殊形式n×n矩阵(n≥4)
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.40448.127-139
Ade Novia Rahma, Resi Arisanti, C. C. Marzuki, Fitri Aryani
This study aims to determine the inverse of the Leslie matrix of special order n × n ( n ≥ 4) using the Adjoin method. There are three steps to do. First, note the shape of the determinant pattern of the Leslie matrix of special shapes of the order 4 × 4 to 10 × 10 so that the general form is obtained. Second, consider the shape of the cofactor matrix pattern of the Leslie matrix in the special form of the order 4 × 4 to 10 × 10 so that the general form is obtained. Third, the general form of the inverse of the Leslie matrix of the special form of order n × n is obtained based on Theorem 3.1 regarding the general form of the determinant and Theorem 3.2 relating to the general form of the cofactor.
本文用Adjoin方法求出n×n(n≥4)特殊阶Leslie矩阵的逆。首先,注意4×4到10×10阶特殊形状的Leslie矩阵的行列式模式的形状,从而得到一般形式。其次,考虑4×4到10×10阶特殊形式的Leslie矩阵的辅因子矩阵模式的形状,从而得到一般形式。第三,在关于行列式一般形式的定理3.1和关于辅因子一般形式的理论3.2的基础上,得到了n×n阶特殊形式的Leslie矩阵逆的一般形式。
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引用次数: 0
Analisis Regresi Logistik Multinomial pada Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Status Pasien Covid-19 di Kota Depok 多项式物流回归分析影响德波克市Covid-19患者病情的因素
Pub Date : 2022-12-13 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n2.40058.103-114
Fernanda Caesa Putri, Ani Andriyati, Embay Rohaeti
This study aims to analyze the effect of the relationship between the status of COVID-19 patients on the factors that influence COVID-19 in Depok City with multinomial logistic regression. Data were collected using a questionnaire with a snowball sampling technique. The responses used in this study were suspected, confirmed, and close contact, where the variable is the type of status of the COVID-19 patient. The predictor variables in this study were age, gender, location of residence, living conditions, type of work, information, lifestyle, contact history, and health facilities, where these variables are factors that influence the status of COVID-19 patients in Depok City. The results of the model fit test using the Pearson test obtained a P-value > 5% , so it can be said that there is no difference between the observed and predicted models; in other words, the resulting model is used. The results obtained are very significant variables between the status of COVID-19 and the factors that influence it in Depok City, namely lifestyle with the category of exercise, contact history with the type of fewer than three days. The odds obtained from each COVID-19 patient status in Depok City are 0.000000036 in the confirmed category, 0.999 in the close contact category, and 0.00000048 in the suspect category.
本研究旨在运用多项logistic回归分析德波克市COVID-19患者状况与影响因素之间的关系。数据收集采用滚雪球抽样技术的问卷调查。本研究中使用的应答为疑似、确诊和密切接触者,变量为COVID-19患者的状态类型。本研究的预测变量为年龄、性别、居住地、生活条件、工作类型、信息、生活方式、接触史、卫生设施等,这些变量是影响德波市COVID-19患者状况的因素。使用Pearson检验对模型进行拟合检验的结果得到p值> 5%,因此可以说观测模型与预测模型之间没有差异;换句话说,使用得到的模型。结果表明,德波市的COVID-19状况与影响因素之间存在非常显著的变量,即生活方式与运动类别,接触史与少于3天的类型。在德波市,每个COVID-19患者的确诊率为0.000000036,密切接触者为0.999,疑似病例为0.00000048。
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引用次数: 0
Analisis Kesediaan Membayar Premi Asuransi Usahatani Padi Menggunakan Model Regresi Logistik 分析人士愿意使用物流回归模型为其股权投资支付保险费
Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n1.38212.19-26
P. Novalia, R. Riaman, Betty Subartini
untuk pengal-ihan dialami petani. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk menentukan nilai rata-rata, faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi, dan nilai peluang kesediaan membayar premi. Kesediaan membayar premi nilainya dapat ditentukan melalui Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). Sedangkan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi dan nilai peluang kesediaan membayar premi dianalisis menggunakan Abstract Agricultural activities, specifically paddy farming, will tend to be associated with consistently elevated risks for crop failure rates caused by natural disas-ters like floods and droughts, pests, and plant diseases due to climate change. Paddy farm insurance is expected to be capable of being utilized as a solution to reduce the risk of crop failure that may be encountered by farmers. This research was intended to determine the average value and factors that provide an influence on the willingness of farmers to pay, and probability for farmers to pay the paddy farm insurance premium. Willingness to Pay (WTP) value may be determined through the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM). More-over, the factors that provide an influence on the willingness of farmers to be involved and probability value for farmers to pay premiums may be analyzed by Logistic Regression. Referring to the research results, the average value of the willingness to pay premiums was amounted to Rp 31.973,73/Ha/MT. This value was found to be 11.18% less than the current premium determined by the government. Major factors that were considered capable of influencing farmers to pay premium is consisted of the area of agricultural land and farm-ing experience, with probability value of farmers to pay premium is 0,1414.
这是一个很好的例子。政策的目的是确定比例,确定合适的因素,并确定合适的媒介。中介机构可以通过或有估值法(CVM)确定溢价。要想通过使用抽象农业活动(特别是水稻种植)来消除由自然灾害(如洪水、干旱、害虫和气候变化引起的植物疾病)引起的作物歉收率持续上升的风险,就必须采取行动。稻田保险有望被用作降低农民可能遇到的作物歉收风险的解决方案。本研究旨在确定影响农民支付意愿的平均值和因素,以及农民支付稻田保险费的可能性。支付意愿(WTP)价值可通过或有估值法(CVM)确定。此外,可以通过Logistic回归分析影响农民参与意愿和农民支付保费概率值的因素。根据研究结果,支付保费意愿的平均值为31.973,73卢比/公顷/MT。该值比政府确定的当前保费低11.18%。被认为能够影响农民支付保险费的主要因素包括农业用地面积和耕作经验,农民支付保险金的概率值为01414。
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引用次数: 0
Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Pneumonia dengan Intervensi Vaksinasi dan Pengobatan 通过疫苗接种和治疗干预传播肺炎疾病的数学模型
Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v18.n1.36064.63-72
Nicola Chandra Darmawan, H. Tasman
{"title":"Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Pneumonia dengan Intervensi Vaksinasi dan Pengobatan","authors":"Nicola Chandra Darmawan, H. Tasman","doi":"10.24198/jmi.v18.n1.36064.63-72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24198/jmi.v18.n1.36064.63-72","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53096,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Matematika Integratif","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46497765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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