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Prediksi Curah Hujan di PPKS Bukit Sentang Dengan Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur 用模糊时间序列Ruey Chyn Tsaur预测PPKS日出的降雨量
Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v17.n1.32820.51-61
R. Rahmawati, Dyan Elvita Sari, Ade Novia Rahma, M. Soleh
Perubahan cuaca yang tidak menentu menjadikan cuaca tidak dapat diperkirakan kondisinya di masa yang akan datang.  Perubahan cuaca ini juga bergantung pada curah hujan. Pada perkebunan seperti perkebunan kelapa sawit cuaca mempengaruhi banyak aspek salah satunya adalah produktivitas buah kelapa sawit. Sehingga yang diperlukan dalam hal ini adalah peramalan. Peramalan merupakan suatu kegiatan untuk meramalkan apa yang terjadi di masa depan dengan metode tertentu. Metode fuzzy time series dikenal sebagai kecerdasan buatan yang digunakan untuk memprediksi masalah dimana data aktual dibentuk dalam nilai-nilai linguistik menggunakan prinsip fuzzy sebagai dasarnya. Penelitian ini membahas tentang metode fuzzy time series yang dikembangkan oleh Ruey Chyn Tsaur untuk memprediksi curah hujan di PPKS Bukit Sentang, Sumatera Utara. Perkiraan curah hujan berdasarkan data Januari 2017 sampai dengan Desember 2020 untuk prediksi tahun 2021. Peramalan ini memiliki nilai MAPE 0,37% atau memiliki presisi perkiraan 99,63%. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series Ruey Chyn Tsaur memiliki tingkat akurasi yang sangat baik untuk memprediksi curah hujan.
天气的不稳定变化使他无法预测未来的天气状况。天气的变化也取决于降雨。在油棕种植园,天气影响着许多方面,其中之一就是油棕的生产力。在这种情况下,只需要预测。占卜是用特定的方法预测未来的活动。模糊时间系列被称为人工智能,用来预测语言价值中实际数据形成的问题,这些问题是基于模糊原则。这项研究涉及Ruey Chyn Tsaur开发的雾时间系列,以预测北苏门答腊山麓PPKS的降雨。根据2017年1月至2020年12月的数据预测降雨量。这种值为0.37%或估计精度为99.63%。这项研究的结果表明,Ruey Chyn Tsaur的模糊时间系列理论非常准确,可以预测降水。
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引用次数: 4
Bukti Alternatif Beberapa Fungsi Pembangkit pada Partisi dengan Penjumlah Ditandai 用有标记笔的分子式证明某些工作站功能的替代证据
Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v17.n1.31528.43-49
Naelufa Syifna Wifaqotul Muna, Uha Isnaini
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引用次数: 0
Pemodelan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Jumlah Kasus Covid-19 di Padang 自回归综合移动平均季节模型预测现场新冠肺炎病例数
Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v17.n1.32024.23-31
Widdya Rahmalina
Padang city has been in the red zone (high risk) and orange zone (medium risk) against the transmission of the COVID-19 virus for several months. This is due to the lack of community discipline in complying with health protocols. The existence of the Andalas University Hospital Laboratory in Padang City which has the tools to issue the SWAB test results also results in data being obtained very quickly and data collection is more accurate. To predict the number of new cases of COVID-19 patients research on forecasting is necessary. One method that can be used is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method or abbreviated as SARIMA. This method was chosen because the data shows a weekly seasonal pattern. The data used are daily data from 2 August 2020 to 6 January 2021 obtained from the Padang City Health Office. The results showed that the SARIMA (011) (011) 7 model is the best model with parameter estimates that are significantly different from zero so that it fulfills the white noise assumption with a Means Squared Error value of 3.46731. Forecasting results for the next month show that cases of COVID-19 patients are still fluctuating ranging from 20 to 66 people. For this reason, efforts from the local government of the City of Padang are needed in disciplining the community so that the conditions of Padang City can immediately turn into a green (safe) zone from COVID-19.
几个月来,巴东市一直处于新冠肺炎病毒传播的红色区域(高风险)和橙色区域(中风险)。这是由于社区在遵守卫生规程方面缺乏纪律。巴东市安达拉斯大学医院实验室拥有发布SWAB测试结果的工具,这也导致数据获取非常快,数据收集更加准确。为了预测新冠肺炎患者的新增病例数,有必要对预测进行研究。可以使用的一种方法是季节性自回归综合移动平均法或简称为SARIMA。之所以选择这种方法,是因为数据显示了每周的季节性模式。使用的数据是从巴东市卫生办公室获得的2020年8月2日至2021年1月6日的每日数据。结果表明,SARIMA(011)(011)7模型是参数估计值与零显著不同的最佳模型,因此它满足了白噪声假设,均方误差值为3.46731。下个月的预测结果显示,新冠肺炎患者的病例仍在20至66人之间波动。因此,巴东市地方政府需要努力规范社区,使巴东市的条件能够立即成为新冠肺炎的绿色(安全)区。
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引用次数: 3
Solving of Linear Volterra-Fredholm Integral Equations via Modification of Block Pulse Functions 用块脉冲函数的修正求解线性Volterra-Fredholm积分方程
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v17.n1.32003.33-42
Ayyubi Ahmad
A computational method based on modification of block pulse functions is proposed for solving numerically the linear Volterra-Fredholm integral equations. We obtain integration operational matrix of modification of block pulse functions on interval [0,T). A modification of block pulse functions and their integration operational matrix can be reduced to a linear upper triangular system. Then, the problem under study is transformed to a system of linear algebraic equations which can be used to obtain an approximate solution of  linear Volterra-Fredholm integral equations. Furthermore, the rate of convergence is  O(h) and error analysis of the proposed method are investigated. The results show that the approximate solutions have a good of efficiency and accuracy.
提出了一种基于块脉冲函数修正的线性Volterra-Fredholm积分方程的数值求解方法。得到了区间[0,T]上块脉冲函数修正的积分运算矩阵。对块脉冲函数及其积分运算矩阵的修正可以简化为线性上三角系统。然后,将所研究的问题转化为一个线性代数方程组,该方程组可用于求得线性Volterra-Fredholm积分方程的近似解。该方法的收敛速度为0 (h),并对其误差进行了分析。结果表明,该近似解具有较好的求解效率和精度。
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引用次数: 0
FORECASTING SEASONAL TIME SERIES DATA USING THE HOLT-WINTERS EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD OF ADDITIVE MODELS 利用加性模型的HOLT-inters指数平滑方法预测季节性时间序列数据
Pub Date : 2020-12-05 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v16.n2.29293.151-157
N. Nurhamidah, Nusyirwan Nusyirwan, A. Faisol
The purpose of this study was to predict seasonal time series data using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing additive model.  The data used in this study is data on the number of passengers departing at Hasanudin Airport in 2009-2019, the source of the data obtained from the official website of the Central Statistics Agency.  The results showed that the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method on the passenger's number at Hasanudin Airport in 2009 to 2019 contained trend patterns and seasonal patterns, by first determining the initial values and smoothing parameters that could minimize forecasting errors.
本研究的目的是利用Holt-Winters指数平滑加性模型预测季节时间序列数据。本研究中使用的数据是2009-2019年从哈萨努丁机场出发的乘客人数的数据,数据来源是中央统计局的官方网站。结果表明,2009 - 2019年哈萨努丁机场旅客数量的Holt-Winters指数平滑方法包含趋势模式和季节模式,首先确定初始值和平滑参数,使预测误差最小化。
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引用次数: 12
Prediksi Trend Pergerakan Harga Saham dengan Hidden Markov Model (HMM) dan Support Vector Machine (SVM) 隐马尔科夫模型(HMM)和支持向量机(SVM)
Pub Date : 2020-07-19 DOI: 10.24198/JMI.V10.N1.10181.19-24
Firdaniza Firdaniza, Jondri Jondri
Prediksi trend pergerakan harga saham sangatlah dibutuhkan untuk meningkatkan potensi keuntungan sekaligus mengurang kemungkinan rugi. Berbagai metode telah digunakan untuk memprediksi trend pergerakan harga saham. Pada paper ini, dibahas metode Hidden Markov Model (HMM) dan Support Vector Machine (SVM) sebagai alat untuk memprediksi trend naik turunnya harga close Indeks LQ45. Akurasi prediksi dengan HMM sebesar 50,98%, sementara dengan SVM sebesar 55,56%.
对市场趋势趋势的预测对于提高利润和减少损失的可能性是必不可少的。不同的方法已经用来预测股票价格运动的趋势。在这篇论文中,讨论了隐藏的马尔可夫模型(嗯)和支持矢量引擎(SVM),以预测近价格q45克洛维指数(close指标LQ45)波动趋势。预测准确率为50.98%,SVM为55.56%。
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引用次数: 1
Kasus-kasus Buruk Penggunaan Metode Titik Interior pada Optimisasi Linear 坏情况下使用内点法进行线性优化
Pub Date : 2020-07-19 DOI: 10.24198/JMI.V10.N1.10180.9-18
Bib Paruhum Sialalahi
Metode titik interior adalah suatu metode dengan waktu polinomial dalam menyelesaikan masalah optimisasi linear. Metode titik interior sering menggunakan central path sebagai panduan menuju solusi optimalnya. Pada paper ini diberikan suatu teorema yang menyatakan bahwasanya kendala redundan dapat mengubah pusat analitik central path yang sekaligus mengubah central path. Dengan bantuan teorema ini ditampilkan suatu kasus dimana metode titik interior berunjuk kerja buruk dengan adanya kendala redundan. Kemudian disajikan suatu masalah optimisasi linear yang memiliki central path dengan pola zigzag. Pola zigzag pada central path juga mengakibatkan metode titik interior bekerja lebih lama dalam menuju solusi optimal.
内部点法是一个多项式时间测定线性优化问题的方法。内部点法通常使用中心路径作为最佳解决方案的指南。在这篇论文中,给出了一个定理,规定了重复障碍,可以改变中央路径的分析中心,同时改变中心路径。在这个定理的帮助下,演示了一个内部点法在冗余障碍的情况下表现不佳的案例。然后提出了一个线性优化问题,即中央路径呈之字形。中心路径上的曲折模式也导致内部点法在最佳解决方案中工作时间更长。
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引用次数: 2
Dihedral Group in The Ancient Genetic 古代遗传学中的二面体群
Pub Date : 2020-04-05 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v16i1.26646
I. Aisah, E. Djauhari, Asep Singgih
The standard genetic code consist of four nucleotide bases which encode genes to produce amino acids needed by living things. The addition of new base  (Dummy) causes a sequence of bases to become five nucleotide bases called ancient genetic codes. The five base set is denoted by , where B forms group through matching , , , , and   from set . Ancient genetic codes can be reviewed as algebraic structures as a vector spaces and other structures as symmetry groups. In this article, discussed the properties of symmetry groups from ancient genetic codes that will produce dihedral groups. The study began by constructing an expanded nucleotide base isomorphism with . The presence of base  causes  to have a cardinality of 24, denoted as  with .  isomorphic with  which is denoted by . Group  had three clasess of partitions based on strong-weak, purin-pyrimidin types, and amino-keto nucleotide groups which are denoted as , , and . All three classes are subgroups of . By using the rules of rotation and reflection in the four-side plane, it was found that only one group fulfilled the rule was named the dihedral group. Keywords: ancient genetic code, group, subgroup, permutation, symmetry group , dihedral group.
标准遗传密码由四个核苷酸碱基组成,这些碱基编码产生生物所需氨基酸的基因。添加新的碱基(Dummy)会使一系列碱基变成五个核苷酸碱基,称为古代遗传密码。五个基本集合由表示,其中B通过匹配、和从集合形成组。古代遗传密码可以看作是作为向量空间的代数结构,而其他结构可以看作是对称群。在这篇文章中,讨论了古代遗传密码中对称群的性质,这些对称群将产生二面体群。这项研究开始于用构造一个扩展的核苷酸碱基同构。碱基的存在导致基数为24,用表示。同构的,用表示。组有三类基于强弱嘌呤嘧啶类型和氨基酮核苷酸基团的划分,分别表示为、和。这三个类都是的子群。利用四边平面中的旋转和反射规则,发现只有一个满足该规则的群被称为二面体群。关键词:古代遗传密码,群,子群,排列,对称群,二面体群。
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引用次数: 0
Optimisasi Travelling Salesman Problem dengan Algoritma Genetika pada Kasus Pendistribusian Barang PT. Pos Indonesia di Kota Bandar Lampung 印尼首都楠榜的PT. Pos (PT. Pos)项目的基因算法优化旅行销售员
Pub Date : 2020-04-05 DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v16i1.27804
Saiful Rohman, L. Zakaria, Asmiati Asmiati, Aang Nuryaman
Optimization is the process to get the minimum or maximum value of a function, opportunity. One of the problems involving the optimization process is Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP). The TSP case study discussed in this research is related to the problem of distribution of goods conducted by PT. Pos Indonesia in Bandar Lampung city. Some of the issues in question include delays in delivery of goods, less satisfaction in post Office services, a route to distribute complex goods and others. The resolution of the problem encountered by PT. Pos Indonesia by using the TSP concept in question can be solved by method of genetic algorithm (the search algorithm is based on natural selection mechanism and biological evolution). The use of the genetic algorithm method in resolving the problems discussed gives results that to achieve the optimal position of the testing process using the order crossover and inversion mutation need to be done repeating the process 8 times from 10 retry attempts (80%).
优化是一个过程,以获得最小或最大值的函数,机会。其中一个涉及优化过程的问题是旅行商问题(TSP)。本研究中讨论的TSP案例研究与PT. Pos Indonesia在班达楠榜市进行的货物配送问题有关。其中一些问题包括货物交付延迟、邮局服务满意度下降、复杂货物的配送路线等。PT. Pos Indonesia利用TSP概念解决所遇到的问题,可以通过遗传算法的方法来解决(搜索算法基于自然选择机制和生物进化)。使用遗传算法方法解决所讨论的问题,结果表明,要使用顺序交叉和反转突变实现测试过程的最优位置,需要从10次重试尝试(80%)中重复该过程8次。
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引用次数: 4
Tinjauan Terhadap Grup Cogenerated secara Hingga 群体性回顾是相互生成的
Pub Date : 2020-04-05 DOI: 10.24198/JMI.V10.N1.10186.63-68
E. Kurniadi
Dualitas antara grup bebas dan grup divisible memotivasi munculnya konsep dual terhadap grup yang dibangun secara hingga. Suatu sistem L dari unsur-unsur grup A dikatakan sistem cogenerator jika untuk setiap grup B, setiap homomorfisma f dari A ke B sedemikian sehingga
自由团体和分裂团体之间的对偶性,推动了对建立起来的群体的双重概念。A组元素中的L系统被称为cogenerator系统,如果对于每个B组,从A到B的每个同源f是这样的
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引用次数: 0
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Jurnal Matematika Integratif
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