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Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers Laws and Pregnancies Conceived Through Fertility Treatment. 堕胎提供者法律和通过生育治疗怀孕的针对性监管。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.5920
Samuel J F Melville, Jeanne Shi, Bharti Garg, Aaron B Caughey, Molly Kornfield

Importance: Twenty-seven states have enacted targeted regulation of abortion providers (TRAP) laws that may disproportionately affect higher-risk pregnancies such as those conceived through fertility treatment.

Objective: To assess the association of TRAP laws with the relative rates of adverse outcomes of pregnancies conceived through fertility treatment.

Design, setting, and participants: This cohort study of singleton births conceived through fertility treatment used National Vital Statistics System data on births between 2012 and 2021. Data were analyzed from August 15, 2024, to September 8, 2025.

Exposure: Included participants were categorized as either living under the legal jurisdiction of states with or without TRAP laws enacted during the study period. As laws were not passed in every state uniformly, the first year of enforcement was excluded.

Main outcomes and measures: Demographic characteristics of individuals who conceived with fertility treatments living in states with and without TRAP laws were compared using χ2 and analysis of variance tests. A maternal composite of adverse outcomes was constructed. Secondary outcomes included a neonatal composite of adverse outcomes and rate of preterm birth. Controlling for potential confounders, generalized estimating equation models with binomial distribution, identity link, and robust sandwich SE estimators were used to assess adjusted absolute percentage point differences comparing states with and without TRAP laws across the enactment of TRAP laws.

Results: This study included 416 019 singleton births (mean [SD] maternal age, 34.5 [5.3] years; mean [SD] gestational age, 38.3 [2.4] weeks; 213 294 males [51.3%]) conceived with fertility treatment. Of these births, 174 671 (42.0%) occurred in states with TRAP laws and 241 348 (58.0%) in states without these laws. Generalized estimating equation models demonstrated a greater increase in the composite of adverse maternal outcomes (absolute adjusted difference-in-differences, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.003-0.50) in states with TRAP laws relative to states without.

Conclusions and relevance: These findings suggest an increase in maternal morbidity among patients using fertility care in states that passed TRAP laws relative to states that did not.

重要性:27个州颁布了针对堕胎提供者的法律,这些法律可能不成比例地影响高风险妊娠,例如通过生育治疗怀孕的妊娠。目的:评价TRAP规律与生育治疗妊娠不良结局相对发生率的关系。设计、环境和参与者:本队列研究使用2012年至2021年国家生命统计系统的出生数据,对通过生育治疗怀孕的单胎婴儿进行研究。数据分析时间为2024年8月15日至2025年9月8日。暴露:纳入的参与者被分类为生活在有或没有在研究期间颁布TRAP法律的州的法律管辖下。由于法律不是在每个州都统一通过的,所以第一年的执行被排除在外。主要结果和测量方法:采用χ2和方差分析检验比较在有和没有TRAP法的州接受生育治疗怀孕个体的人口统计学特征。构建了产妇不良结局的综合分析。次要结局包括新生儿不良结局和早产率。控制潜在的混杂因素,使用二项分布的广义估计方程模型、身份链接和稳健的三明治SE估计器来评估在制定TRAP法律期间,比较有和没有TRAP法律的州的调整后绝对百分比差异。结果:本研究纳入接受生育治疗的单胎416 019例(平均[SD]产妇年龄34.5[5.3]岁;平均[SD]胎龄38.3[2.4]周;213 294例男性[51.3%])。在这些出生中,174 671例(42.0%)发生在有TRAP法律的州,241 348例(58.0%)发生在没有TRAP法律的州。广义估计方程模型显示,与没有TRAP法律的州相比,在有TRAP法律的州,不良产妇结局的综合发生率增加更大(绝对校正差中差,0.25;95% CI, 0.003-0.50)。结论和相关性:这些发现表明,在通过TRAP法律的州,与未通过TRAP法律的州相比,使用生育护理的患者中孕产妇发病率有所增加。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in Medication Use During Medicaid Continuous Enrollment and Unwinding. 医疗补助连续登记和解除期间药物使用的变化。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.5890
Benjamin N Rome, Jihye Han, Adrianna McIntyre, Aaron S Kesselheim, Benjamin D Sommers
<p><strong>Importance: </strong>During the COVID-19 pandemic, Medicaid enrollment increased because states suspended routine eligibility determinations. After this continuous enrollment provision ended in April 2023, millions of US individuals lost Medicaid coverage.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To measure how the unwinding of Medicaid enrollment was associated with changes in patients' use of health services, such as prescription medications.</p><p><strong>Design, setting, and participants: </strong>A cross-sectional study was carried out using interrupted time series analysis to compare changes in quarterly Medicaid enrollment and prescription medication use from 2018, quarter (Q) 1 through 2024, Q1. Data were analyzed from November 2024 to February 2025.</p><p><strong>Exposures: </strong>The onset of continuous enrollment provision (2020, Q2) and unwinding (2023, Q2).</p><p><strong>Main outcomes and measures: </strong>The outcomes were quarterly state Medicaid enrollment and estimated number of reimbursed prescriptions. Log-transformed linear regression models were used to compare changes in state enrollment and prescriptions after continuous enrollment and unwinding, overall and stratified by states with different net enrollment changes and policies to protect patients during unwinding. Subsets of medications for certain chronic conditions and formulations primarily used by children were analyzed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In the quarter before the COVID-19 pandemic (2019, Q4), Medicaid enrollment was 71.4 million, and there were about 183.2 million prescriptions reimbursed by Medicaid programs. This included 59.1 million (32.3%) prescriptions treating chronic diseases, 30.3 million (16.5%) for acute conditions, and 15.0 million (8.2%) for other specified conditions. In 2023, Q2, enrollment peaked at 93.9 million (31.4% increase from baseline), and the number of prescriptions peaked at 212.6 million (16.1% increase from baseline). Enrollment increased by 2.42% (95% CI, 2.15%-2.70%) per quarter during continuous enrollment and decreased by 4.92% (95% CI, -6.12% to -3.70%) per quarter during unwinding. Concurrently, the number of prescriptions increased by 1.85% (95% CI, 1.21%-2.50%) per quarter and then decreased by 3.94% (95% CI, -5.73% to -2.11%) per quarter. Trends were similar for chronic disease medications and pediatric-specific formulations. States with the highest disenrollment during unwinding had the largest decreases in chronic disease medication use; states that implemented more protective policies had smaller decreases in enrollment and insignificant decreases in chronic medication use.</p><p><strong>Conclusions and relevance: </strong>This cross-sectional study found that changes in Medicaid medication use during the COVID-19 pandemic continuous enrollment period and after unwinding were smaller than corresponding changes in enrollment. Unwinding had measurable impacts on patient access to prescription medications, but
重要性:在COVID-19大流行期间,由于各州暂停了常规资格确定,医疗补助登记人数增加。在这一持续的登记条款于2023年4月结束后,数百万美国人失去了医疗补助。目的:测量医疗补助登记的解除与患者使用医疗服务(如处方药)的变化之间的关系。设计、环境和参与者:采用中断时间序列分析进行横断面研究,比较2018年第一季度至2024年第一季度医疗补助登记和处方药使用的变化。数据分析时间为2024年11月至2025年2月。风险敞口:持续招生规定的开始(2020年,第二季度)和解除(2023年,第二季度)。主要结果和措施:结果是季度州医疗补助登记和估计报销处方的数量。采用对数变换线性回归模型比较连续入组和解除入组后各州入组和处方的变化,并按不同净入组变化和解除入组期间患者保护政策的各州进行整体和分层比较。分析了用于某些慢性疾病的药物子集和主要由儿童使用的配方。结果:在COVID-19大流行前的一个季度(2019年第四季度),医疗补助计划的注册人数为7140万,医疗补助计划报销的处方约为1.832亿张。其中包括治疗慢性疾病的5910万张(32.3%)处方,治疗急性疾病的3030万张(16.5%)处方,治疗其他特定疾病的1500万张(8.2%)处方。在2023年第二季度,注册人数达到9390万(比基线增加31.4%),处方数量达到2.126亿(比基线增加16.1%)。在连续登记期间,登记人数每季度增加2.42% (95% CI, 2.15%-2.70%),而在取消登记期间,登记人数每季度减少4.92% (95% CI, -6.12%至-3.70%)。同时,处方数量每季度增加1.85% (95% CI, 1.21% ~ 2.50%),然后每季度减少3.94% (95% CI, -5.73% ~ -2.11%)。慢性病药物和儿科专用配方的趋势也类似。在放松期间,退出人数最高的州,慢性病药物使用的下降幅度最大;实施更多保护性政策的州,登记人数的减少幅度较小,慢性药物使用的减少也不显著。结论及相关性:本横断面研究发现,在COVID-19大流行连续入组期间和解除后,医疗补助药物使用的变化小于入组的相应变化。撤销对患者获得处方药有可衡量的影响,但实施保护性政策的州能够减轻这些变化。
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引用次数: 0
Federal Look-Alike Plan Termination Policy and Dual-Eligible Enrollment in Integrated Care Programs. 联邦相似计划终止政策和综合护理计划的双重资格登记。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6294
Yanlei Ma, Eric T Roberts, Jessica Phelan, Kenton J Johnston, E John Orav, Ellen R Meara, Jose F Figueroa
<p><strong>Importance: </strong>In 2023, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services terminated dual-eligible special needs plan look-alikes-Medicare Advantage plans with beneficiary panels composed of more than 80% dual-eligible individuals but lacking Medicaid integration. Understanding whether this policy promoted dual-eligible enrollment in integrated care plans, particularly those attaining high-level integration, is critical.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To describe dual-eligible enrollment transitions after the look-alike plan termination and evaluate whether the policy was associated with increased enrollment in highly integrated plans.</p><p><strong>Design, setting, and participants: </strong>This repeated cross-sectional study analyzed US Medicare administrative data from January 2017 to January 2023. Samples were limited to full-benefit dual-eligible beneficiaries.</p><p><strong>Main outcomes and measures: </strong>First, a beneficiary-level analysis was conducted on 2023 enrollment patterns among full-benefit dual-eligible individuals whose 2022 plans were terminated, including factors associated with enrollment in highly integrated plans in 2023. Next, a county-year-level difference-in-differences design was used to compare changes in full-benefit dual-eligible enrollment before (2017-2022) and after (2023) the termination policy between counties with vs without terminated look-alike plans. A difference-in-differences design was used to evaluate whether the look-alike termination policy was associated with the proportion of full-benefit dual-eligible individuals enrolled in highly integrated care plans.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 2017 and 2022, 482 of 2576 counties had full-benefit dual-eligible individuals enrolled in look-alike plans for at least 1 year. Of the 170 399 full-benefit dual-eligible individuals enrolled in look-alike plans in 2022 (58.9% female; 20.6% Asian, 44.8% Hispanic, 11.3% non-Hispanic Black, 21.4% non-Hispanic White, and 2% other) and remained dual-eligible in 2023, only 5.4% transitioned to highly integrated plans, while 55.6% moved to nonintegrated plans. Dual-eligible individuals transitioning to highly integrated plans were more likely to be older (65-74 years: adjusted difference, 3.4 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, 2.8-4.1 pp; 75-84 years: adjusted difference, 4.1 pp; 95% CI, 3.3-4.8 pp; ≥85 years: adjusted difference, 5.0 pp; 95% CI, 4.0-5.9 pp), female (adjusted difference: 0.6 pp; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9 pp), without disabilities (adjusted difference, -0.7 pp; 95% CI, -1.2 to -0.2 pp), and less likely to be Asian (adjusted difference, -5.0 pp; 95% CI, -5.6 to -4.4 pp) or Black (adjusted difference, -0.9 pp; 95% CI, -1.6 to -0.2 pp). The termination policy was not associated with a significant differential increase in enrollment into highly integrated plans in counties with look-alike plans compared with those without (0.6 pp; 95% CI, -0.4 to 1.6 pp). However, there was a 2.6-pp differential
重要性:2023年,医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心终止了类似双重资格特殊需求计划的医疗保险优势计划,该计划的受益人小组由80%以上的双重资格个人组成,但缺乏医疗补助整合。了解这一政策是否促进了综合护理计划的双重资格登记,特别是那些达到高水平整合的人,是至关重要的。目的:描述相似计划终止后的双重登记过渡,并评估该政策是否与高度整合计划的登记增加有关。设计、环境和参与者:这项重复的横断面研究分析了2017年1月至2023年1月的美国医疗保险管理数据。样本仅限于完全受益的双重资格受益人。主要结果和措施:首先,对终止2022年计划的全福利双重资格个人2023年入保模式进行受益水平分析,包括与2023年高整合计划入保相关的因素。接下来,采用县-年水平的差异中差异设计来比较在2017-2022年和2023年终止政策之前(2017-2022年)和之后(2023年)有和没有终止相似计划的县之间的全福利双合格登记的变化。采用差异中差异设计来评估相似终止政策是否与参加高度整合护理计划的完全福利双重资格个人的比例相关。结果:在2017年至2022年期间,2576个县中有482个县有完全受益的双重资格个人参加了至少1年的类似计划。在170 399名完全符合双重资格的个人中,有58.9%的人在2022年参加了类似的计划(58.9%的女性,20.6%的亚裔,44.8%的西班牙裔,11.3%的非西班牙裔黑人,21.4%的非西班牙裔白人,2%的其他),并在2023年仍然符合双重资格,只有5.4%的人过渡到高度整合的计划,而55.6%的人转向了非整合的计划。过渡到高度整合计划的双重符合条件个体更可能是老年人(65-74岁:调整差值,3.4个百分点[pp]; 95% CI, 2.8-4.1 pp; 75-84岁:调整差值,4.1 pp; 95% CI, 3.3-4.8 pp;≥85岁:调整差值,5.0 pp; 95% CI, 4.0-5.9 pp)、女性(调整差值:0.6 pp; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9 pp)、无残疾(调整差值,-0.7 pp; 95% CI, -1.2至-0.2 pp),亚洲人(调整差值,-5.0 pp;95% CI, -5.6至-4.4 pp)或Black(调整差值,-0.9 pp; 95% CI, -1.6至-0.2 pp)。在有相似计划的县,与没有相似计划的县相比,终止政策与加入高度整合计划的显著差异增加无关(0.6 pp; 95% CI, -0.4至1.6 pp)。然而,在整合程度较低的计划中,注册人数增加了2.6个百分点(95% CI, 0.01-5.1个百分点),这主要是由于整合程度较低的计划的注册人数增加所致。传统医疗保险优惠计划的登记人数也有所增加,在终止政策后,双重资格的登记人数少于80% (2.6 pp; 95% CI, 0.7-4.5 pp)。结论和相关性:在本研究中,终止相似的计划不足以显著地将双重符合条件的个人转向高度整合的计划。补充策略是必要的,以确保双重资格的个人注册到可能改善结果的高度整合的护理模式。
{"title":"Federal Look-Alike Plan Termination Policy and Dual-Eligible Enrollment in Integrated Care Programs.","authors":"Yanlei Ma, Eric T Roberts, Jessica Phelan, Kenton J Johnston, E John Orav, Ellen R Meara, Jose F Figueroa","doi":"10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6294","DOIUrl":"10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6294","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Importance: &lt;/strong&gt;In 2023, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services terminated dual-eligible special needs plan look-alikes-Medicare Advantage plans with beneficiary panels composed of more than 80% dual-eligible individuals but lacking Medicaid integration. Understanding whether this policy promoted dual-eligible enrollment in integrated care plans, particularly those attaining high-level integration, is critical.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Objective: &lt;/strong&gt;To describe dual-eligible enrollment transitions after the look-alike plan termination and evaluate whether the policy was associated with increased enrollment in highly integrated plans.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Design, setting, and participants: &lt;/strong&gt;This repeated cross-sectional study analyzed US Medicare administrative data from January 2017 to January 2023. Samples were limited to full-benefit dual-eligible beneficiaries.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Main outcomes and measures: &lt;/strong&gt;First, a beneficiary-level analysis was conducted on 2023 enrollment patterns among full-benefit dual-eligible individuals whose 2022 plans were terminated, including factors associated with enrollment in highly integrated plans in 2023. Next, a county-year-level difference-in-differences design was used to compare changes in full-benefit dual-eligible enrollment before (2017-2022) and after (2023) the termination policy between counties with vs without terminated look-alike plans. A difference-in-differences design was used to evaluate whether the look-alike termination policy was associated with the proportion of full-benefit dual-eligible individuals enrolled in highly integrated care plans.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Results: &lt;/strong&gt;Between 2017 and 2022, 482 of 2576 counties had full-benefit dual-eligible individuals enrolled in look-alike plans for at least 1 year. Of the 170 399 full-benefit dual-eligible individuals enrolled in look-alike plans in 2022 (58.9% female; 20.6% Asian, 44.8% Hispanic, 11.3% non-Hispanic Black, 21.4% non-Hispanic White, and 2% other) and remained dual-eligible in 2023, only 5.4% transitioned to highly integrated plans, while 55.6% moved to nonintegrated plans. Dual-eligible individuals transitioning to highly integrated plans were more likely to be older (65-74 years: adjusted difference, 3.4 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, 2.8-4.1 pp; 75-84 years: adjusted difference, 4.1 pp; 95% CI, 3.3-4.8 pp; ≥85 years: adjusted difference, 5.0 pp; 95% CI, 4.0-5.9 pp), female (adjusted difference: 0.6 pp; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9 pp), without disabilities (adjusted difference, -0.7 pp; 95% CI, -1.2 to -0.2 pp), and less likely to be Asian (adjusted difference, -5.0 pp; 95% CI, -5.6 to -4.4 pp) or Black (adjusted difference, -0.9 pp; 95% CI, -1.6 to -0.2 pp). The termination policy was not associated with a significant differential increase in enrollment into highly integrated plans in counties with look-alike plans compared with those without (0.6 pp; 95% CI, -0.4 to 1.6 pp). However, there was a 2.6-pp differential ","PeriodicalId":53180,"journal":{"name":"JAMA Health Forum","volume":"7 1","pages":"e256294"},"PeriodicalIF":11.3,"publicationDate":"2026-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12811809/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145991832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Stakeholder Engagement for Hepatitis C Virus Elimination. 消除丙型肝炎病毒的利益相关者参与。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6433
Louis P Garrison, Bruce C M Wang
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引用次数: 0
Early Adoption of Services for Health-Related Social Needs in Medicare. 早期采用医疗保险中与健康相关的社会需求服务。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6261
Jessica I Billig, Joseph H Joo, Jennifer R Cardin, Michael D Dang, Ching-Ching Claire Lin, Jim P Stimpson, Joshua M Liao
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引用次数: 0
Ten Core Concepts for Ensuring Data Equity in Public Health. 确保公共卫生数据公平的十大核心概念。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6031
Yiran Wang, Alicia E Boyd, Lillian Rountree, Yi Ren, Kate Nyhan, Ruchit Nagar, Jackson Higginbottom, Megan L Ranney, Harsh Parikh, Bhramar Mukherjee

Importance: Public health decisions increasingly rely on large-scale data and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and mobile health. However, many populations-including those in rural areas, with disabilities, experiencing homelessness, or living in low- and middle-income regions of the world-remain underrepresented in health datasets, leading to biased findings and suboptimal health outcomes for certain subgroups. Addressing data inequities is critical to ensuring that technological and digital advances improve health outcomes for all.

Observations: This article proposes 10 core concepts to improve data equity throughout the operational arc of data science research and practice in public health. The framework integrates computer science principles such as fairness, transparency, and privacy protection, with best practices in public health data science that focus on mitigating information and selection biases, learning causality, and ensuring generalizability. These concepts are applied together throughout the data life cycle, from study design to data collection, analysis, and interpretation to policy translation, offering a structured approach for evaluating whether data practices adequately represent and serve all populations.

Conclusions and relevance: Data equity is a foundational requirement for producing trustworthy inference and actionable evidence. When data equity is built into public health research from the start, technological and digital advances are more likely to improve health outcomes for everyone rather than widening existing health gaps. These 10 core concepts can be used to operationalize data equity in public health. Although data equity is an essential first step, it does not automatically guarantee information, learning, or decision equity. Advancing data equity must be accompanied by parallel efforts in information theory and structural changes that promote informed decision-making.

重要性:公共卫生决策越来越依赖于大规模数据和新兴技术,如人工智能和移动医疗。然而,许多人口——包括农村地区、残疾人、无家可归者或生活在世界上低收入和中等收入地区的人口——在健康数据集中的代表性仍然不足,导致某些亚组的调查结果存在偏差,健康结果不理想。解决数据不平等问题对于确保技术和数字进步改善所有人的健康结果至关重要。本文提出了10个核心概念,以在公共卫生数据科学研究和实践的整个业务范围内提高数据公平性。该框架将公平、透明和隐私保护等计算机科学原则与公共卫生数据科学的最佳实践相结合,重点是减轻信息和选择偏差、学习因果关系和确保概括性。这些概念在整个数据生命周期中一起应用,从研究设计到数据收集、分析、解释到政策翻译,为评估数据实践是否充分代表和服务于所有人群提供了一种结构化的方法。结论和相关性:数据公平是产生可信推理和可操作证据的基本要求。如果从一开始就将数据公平纳入公共卫生研究,技术和数字进步更有可能改善每个人的健康结果,而不是扩大现有的健康差距。这10个核心概念可用于实现公共卫生领域的数据公平。虽然数据公平是必不可少的第一步,但它并不能自动保证信息、学习或决策的公平。推进数据公平必须伴随着信息理论和促进知情决策的结构变革方面的平行努力。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing the Science and Scholarship of Health Equity. 推进卫生公平的科学和学术。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6576
Sugy Choi, Ninez A Ponce, Sandro Galea
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引用次数: 0
Medical Aid in Dying and Our Ethical Duties-Call to Action. 临终医疗救助与我们的道德责任——行动呼吁。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6118
Yesne Alici, Liz Blackler, Julia Danielle Kulikowski, Amy Scharf
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引用次数: 0
Proportion of Fentanyl Reports in Illicit Drug Seizures and Opioid Mortality. 芬太尼报告在非法药物缉获和阿片类药物死亡率中的比例。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6286
Alex Dahlen, Frederick Lei, Kofi Agyabeng, Runhan Chen, Christian E Johnson, Gabriel Amaro, Jake Spinnler, Mehrdad Khezri, José A Pagán, Cheryl Healton, Tilda M Farhat

Importance: The monthly opioid overdose death rate in the US has declined by 50% from its peak in the summer of 2023 through fall of 2024, and the factors associated with this decline are not fully understood.

Objective: To examine the association between the proportion of fentanyl reports in illicit drug seizures and opioid overdose deaths during periods of rising and falling mortality.

Design and setting: This secondary analysis of state-month level panel data from the National Forensic Laboratory Information System and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) was conducted from January 2018 to September 2024 and included all 50 US states and Washington, DC. CDC WONDER data were collected from recorded death certificates; National Forensic Laboratory Information System data were obtained from drug reports submitted by forensic laboratories. The data were analyzed from July to August 2025.

Exposure: Percentage of illicit drug seizures that contained fentanyl or fentanyl-related compounds. Illicit drug seizures were defined as seizures that contained any of the following: fentanyl or fentanyl-related compounds, heroin, methamphetamine, cocaine, and xylazine.

Main outcomes and measures: The monthly count of opioid overdose deaths, given by uniform claim descriptor codes X40 to 44, X60 to 64, X85, and Y10 to Y14, with additional multiple cause of death codes of T40.0 to 4 and T40.6. Death rates were calculated using yearly population estimates from the American Community Survey.

Results: From a peak in the summer of 2023 through the fall of 2024, the monthly opioid overdose death rate declined by 50%, from 2.2 to 1.1 per 100 000. This decline was was accompanied by a decline in the fentanyl reports as a proportion of total illicit drug seizures from 28.8% to 23.2%. In a 2-way, fixed-effects model, a 1-percentage point reduction in fentanyl prevalence was associated with 0.018 fewer overdose deaths per 100 000 population per month (95% CI, 0.016-0.019; P < .001). There was evidence that the strength of this association has decreased over time.

Conclusions and relevance: The study results suggest that current decline in the proportion of fentanyl reports in illicit drug seizures is associated with 9.2% of the total observed decline in mortality. Additional contributing factors may include other shifts in the drug supply not captured by fentanyl prevalence in illicit drug seizures, shifts in drug use behavior, and the effect of public health programs, interventions, and policies.

重要性:从2023年夏季到2024年秋季,美国每月阿片类药物过量死亡率下降了50%,与此相关的因素尚不完全清楚。目的:研究在死亡率上升和下降期间,非法药物缉获中芬太尼报告的比例与阿片类药物过量死亡之间的关系。设计和背景:2018年1月至2024年9月,对来自国家法医实验室信息系统和美国疾病控制和预防中心广泛的流行病学研究在线数据(CDC WONDER)的州月水平面板数据进行了二次分析,包括美国所有50个州和华盛顿特区。CDC WONDER数据从记录的死亡证明中收集;国家法医实验室信息系统数据来自法医实验室提交的药物报告。数据分析时间为2025年7月至8月。暴露量:含有芬太尼或芬太尼相关化合物的非法药物缉获量的百分比。非法药物缉获被定义为含有以下任何一种的缉获:芬太尼或芬太尼相关化合物、海洛因、甲基苯丙胺、可卡因和噻嗪。主要结局和措施:阿片类药物过量死亡的每月计数,由统一索赔描述符代码X40至44、X60至64、X85和Y10至Y14给出,另外还有多死因代码T40.0至4和T40.6。死亡率是根据美国社区调查的年度人口估计来计算的。结果:从2023年夏季的高峰期到2024年秋季,每月阿片类药物过量死亡率下降了50%,从2.2 / 100 000降至1.1 / 100000 000。与此同时,芬太尼占非法毒品缉获总量的比例也从28.8%下降到23.2%。在双向固定效应模型中,芬太尼患病率降低1个百分点与每月每10万人 中过量死亡人数减少0.018人相关(95% CI, 0.016-0.019; P)结论和相关性:研究结果表明,目前芬太尼报告在非法药物缉获中所占比例的下降与观察到的总死亡率下降的9.2%相关。其他影响因素可能包括非法药物缉获中芬太尼流行率未反映的药物供应的其他变化、药物使用行为的变化以及公共卫生计划、干预措施和政策的影响。
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引用次数: 0
In Search of Pharmaceutical Policy Innovation in the US. 寻找美国的医药政策创新。
IF 11.3 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6049
Sandro Galea, Julie Donohue
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引用次数: 0
期刊
JAMA Health Forum
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