Christian M. Conforti, Ryan L. Crotin, Jordan Oseguera
Major League Baseball (MLB) teams have 20 rounds to select players with projectable ability to compete at the MLB level. In this exploratory study, players were evaluated for differences in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) related to draft round, first round pick, educational designation, and by team. It was hypothesized WAR differences exist by round, pick number, educational designation and by team. From 2005–2015, 1,623 players were examined to determine population differences owed to draft selection. First round draftees had greater average career WAR compared to Rounds 2 to 20. Collectively, the first five picks had greater WAR versus picks grouped 16 through 30. High school (HS) draft picks were selected in earlier rounds versus collegiate athletes and HS hitters displayed more WAR in first round versus 4-year college pitchers. WAR outcomes in the first 15 picks offer more success with greater performance of HS hitters versus 4-year college pitchers. These trends may influence the current landscape of scouting and draft selection in the new draft format that has reduced player selection from 40 to 20 rounds.
{"title":"Major League Draft WARs: An Analysis of Wins Above Replacement in Player Selection","authors":"Christian M. Conforti, Ryan L. Crotin, Jordan Oseguera","doi":"10.3233/jsa-200586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3233/jsa-200586","url":null,"abstract":"Major League Baseball (MLB) teams have 20 rounds to select players with projectable ability to compete at the MLB level. In this exploratory study, players were evaluated for differences in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) related to draft round, first round pick, educational designation, and by team. It was hypothesized WAR differences exist by round, pick number, educational designation and by team. From 2005–2015, 1,623 players were examined to determine population differences owed to draft selection. First round draftees had greater average career WAR compared to Rounds 2 to 20. Collectively, the first five picks had greater WAR versus picks grouped 16 through 30. High school (HS) draft picks were selected in earlier rounds versus collegiate athletes and HS hitters displayed more WAR in first round versus 4-year college pitchers. WAR outcomes in the first 15 picks offer more success with greater performance of HS hitters versus 4-year college pitchers. These trends may influence the current landscape of scouting and draft selection in the new draft format that has reduced player selection from 40 to 20 rounds.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44651343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0017
W. Ziemba
{"title":"Primer on Dosage and the 2012 Triple Crown","authors":"W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0017","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73994974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0008
L. MacLean, W. Ziemba
{"title":"Winning Hockey: Team and Player Impact in the NHL","authors":"L. MacLean, W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89337516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0028
W. Ziemba
{"title":"Dr Z’s Place & Show Racetrack Betting System at the First Breeders’ Cup","authors":"W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0028","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91315207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789814407519_0009
W. Ziemba
AbstractRacetrack betting is simply an application of portfolio theory. The racetrack offers many bets that involve the results of one to about ten horses. Each race is a special financial market with betting, then a race that takes one or a few minutes. Unlike the financial markets, one cannot stop the race when one is ahead, or have the market going almost 24/7. There is a well-defined end point. Like standard portfolio theory, the key issues are to get the means right. In this case, it is the probabilities of, say, two, three or more horses finishing first, second, third, etc., in a given order, and to bet well. For the latter, the Kelly capital growth criterion is widely used and that maximizes the expected logarithm of final wealth. Transaction and price pressure odds changes fit well into the stochastic programming models.Professional syndicates or teams have been successful as hedge funds with gains approaching one billion over several years for the most successful. In the modern era, there are two features used extensively. First, there are rebates for large bettors of the track take similar to discounts at Costco. So instead of facing a 13–30% transaction cost, it's more like 10%. So to win, the bettors must make back this 10% disadvantage before profits ensue. And this is not easy as the markets are quite efficient. Also over half the betting is not recorded in the pools until the race is being run. This is because monies are bet near the start of the race and come from many off track sites which are combined with the on-track bets into the track pool. All this takes time. So estimates of future prices are crucial. Secondly, betting exchanges such as Betfair in London allow short as well as standard long bets. This allows for more arbitrage and the ability to take advantage of known biases. I have been involved in this research since the late 1970s with six books and a number of articles.In this paper I relate the theory, computations and examples of real races and experiences for various bets such as win, place and show, exactas, triactors, superfectas, super hi five, place pick all, double, pick 3, 4, 5 and 6. In the Halifax presentation I showed two of the greatest races ever by two undefeated female horses, one that was still then running (Zenyatta) and one retired (Personal Ensign) in 1988. The previous US undefeated horse was Colin in 1907! These and other great races can be seen free on the website chef-de-race.com.
{"title":"Stochastic Programming and Optimization in Horserace Betting","authors":"W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789814407519_0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814407519_0009","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractRacetrack betting is simply an application of portfolio theory. The racetrack offers many bets that involve the results of one to about ten horses. Each race is a special financial market with betting, then a race that takes one or a few minutes. Unlike the financial markets, one cannot stop the race when one is ahead, or have the market going almost 24/7. There is a well-defined end point. Like standard portfolio theory, the key issues are to get the means right. In this case, it is the probabilities of, say, two, three or more horses finishing first, second, third, etc., in a given order, and to bet well. For the latter, the Kelly capital growth criterion is widely used and that maximizes the expected logarithm of final wealth. Transaction and price pressure odds changes fit well into the stochastic programming models.Professional syndicates or teams have been successful as hedge funds with gains approaching one billion over several years for the most successful. In the modern era, there are two features used extensively. First, there are rebates for large bettors of the track take similar to discounts at Costco. So instead of facing a 13–30% transaction cost, it's more like 10%. So to win, the bettors must make back this 10% disadvantage before profits ensue. And this is not easy as the markets are quite efficient. Also over half the betting is not recorded in the pools until the race is being run. This is because monies are bet near the start of the race and come from many off track sites which are combined with the on-track bets into the track pool. All this takes time. So estimates of future prices are crucial. Secondly, betting exchanges such as Betfair in London allow short as well as standard long bets. This allows for more arbitrage and the ability to take advantage of known biases. I have been involved in this research since the late 1970s with six books and a number of articles.In this paper I relate the theory, computations and examples of real races and experiences for various bets such as win, place and show, exactas, triactors, superfectas, super hi five, place pick all, double, pick 3, 4, 5 and 6. In the Halifax presentation I showed two of the greatest races ever by two undefeated female horses, one that was still then running (Zenyatta) and one retired (Personal Ensign) in 1988. The previous US undefeated horse was Colin in 1907! These and other great races can be seen free on the website chef-de-race.com.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"331 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77143172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0001
L. MacLean, W. Ziemba
{"title":"Utility Theory and Preferences","authors":"L. MacLean, W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76087098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0007
W. Ziemba
Mean reversion risk arbitrage is an ideal way to bet on and watch the NBA.
均值回归风险套利是下注和观看NBA的理想方式。
{"title":"Risk Arbitrage in the 2021 NBA Championship","authors":"W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0007","url":null,"abstract":"Mean reversion risk arbitrage is an ideal way to bet on and watch the NBA.","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88811982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0014
L. MacLean, W. Ziemba
{"title":"Review of the NFL 2019/20 Season, Playoffs and Superbowl","authors":"L. MacLean, W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0014","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"145 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79343896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1142/9789811250217_0013
L. MacLean, W. Ziemba
{"title":"National Football League: 2018–2019 Season","authors":"L. MacLean, W. Ziemba","doi":"10.1142/9789811250217_0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811250217_0013","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":53203,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Sports Analytics","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85420835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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