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Predicting athletic performance from physiological parameters using machine learning: Example of bocce ball 利用机器学习从生理参数预测运动成绩——以地滚球为例
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-08-03 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200617
Mehmet Şimşek, İnci Kesilmiş
Machine learning (ML) is an emerging topic in Sports Science. Some pioneering studies have applied machine learning to prevent injuries, to predict star players, and to analyze athletic performance. The limited number of studies in the literature focused on predicting athletic performance have adopted the cluster-then-predict classification approach. However, these studies have used the independent variable to represent athletic performance at both the clustering and classification stages. In this study we used only physiological parameters in the classification of bocce athletes. Their performance classes were predicted with high accuracy, thus contributing new findings to the literature. The support vector machines-radial basis function (SVM-RBF) kernel correctly predicted all athletes from the high-performance bocce player (HPBP) cluster and 75% of the athletes in the low-performance bocce player (LPBP) cluster. Using machine learning to predict athletic performance from balance data was found to be a time-saving approach for selecting high-potential bocce athletes.
机器学习(ML)是体育科学中的一个新兴课题。一些开创性的研究已经将机器学习应用于预防受伤、预测明星球员和分析运动表现。文献中专注于预测运动成绩的研究数量有限,采用了先聚类后预测的分类方法。然而,这些研究使用自变量来表示聚类和分类阶段的运动表现。在这项研究中,我们只使用生理参数对地滚球运动员进行分类。他们的表现等级被准确预测,从而为文献贡献了新的发现。支持向量机径向基函数(SVM-RBF)核正确预测了高性能地滚球运动员(HPBP)集群中的所有运动员和低性能地滚运动员(LPBP)集群的75%的运动员。研究发现,使用机器学习从平衡数据中预测运动成绩是选择高潜力地滚球运动员的一种省时方法。
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引用次数: 2
An alternative ranking system for biathlon pursuit races 冬季两项追逐比赛的另一种排名系统
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200598
Rémi Servien
Biathlon is an Olympic sport combining cross-country skiing with rifle shooting, giving a penalty for each target miss. The biathletes ran different race formats, including the pursuit race. During this race, the biathletes chase the leader with a start time identical to the result of the sprint race previously achieved. So, pursuit involves different skills (such as tactics or management of emotional pressure) that are not present during races with an interval-start procedure like sprint. Nevertheless, final pursuit rankings are strongly correlated to sprint ones, which prevents a spectacular comeback after a disappointing sprint race. We present here an alternative pursuit ranking system that is nearly decorrelated to sprint rankings. This simple ranking system is based on comparisons with previous pursuit results. The current and the alternative rankings were then compared on different pursuit rankings, using a database of 148 results from men pursuit world cups. The alternative ranking was shown to strongly modify a single pursuit ranking but these modifications were smoothed on a whole world cup season. Advantages and limitations of the alternative ranking system are discussed, paving the way to a fairer modification of the current pursuit ranking to increase surprise and suspense in biathlon pursuit races.
冬季两项是一项将越野滑雪与步枪射击相结合的奥运项目,每错过一个目标都会受到处罚。两项运动员参加了不同的比赛形式,包括追逐赛。在这场比赛中,两项全能运动员追逐领先者的开始时间与之前的短跑比赛的结果相同。因此,追求涉及不同的技能(如战术或情绪压力管理),而这些技能在像短跑这样的间歇起跑程序的比赛中是不存在的。尽管如此,最终的追逐排名与短跑排名密切相关,这阻止了在一场令人失望的短跑比赛后的惊人逆转。我们在这里提出了一个替代的追求排名系统,它几乎与短跑排名无关。这个简单的排名系统是基于与以前的追求结果的比较。然后,使用一个包含148个男子世界杯追逐赛结果的数据库,在不同的追逐赛排名中比较当前和备选排名。替代排名被证明会强烈地修改单次追逐排名,但这些修改在整个世界杯赛季中都被平滑了。讨论了替代排名系统的优点和局限性,为更公平地修改目前的追逐赛排名铺平了道路,以增加冬季两项追逐赛的惊喜和悬念。
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引用次数: 0
Using agronomic data to minimize the impact of field conditions on player injuries and enhance the development of a risk management plan 利用农艺数据,最大限度地减少场地条件对球员受伤的影响,并加强风险管理计划的制定
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-05-30 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200538
E. Walker, Kristina S. Walker
An important aspect of facility management is the development of a comprehensive risk management plan. Player safety has only recently been a consideration when developing a risk management plan. Field conditions have not received much attention as it relates to player safety. Several injuries at Optus Stadium in Perth, Australia raised questions about the playing surface being the cause. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of established athletic field agronomic measures to predict injuries from football fields and soccer pitches. Logistic regression was used to predict injury based upon soil compaction, soil moisture, surface firmness, and turfgrass quality. Results indicate that athletic fields that met good standards had the lowest probability of injury and injury probability is the highest when field conditions are considered poor. These results provide parameters facility and athletic field managers can use to determine whether an athletic field demonstrates a low risk of injury, needs to be improved, or a game should be canceled.
设施管理的一个重要方面是制定全面的风险管理计划。直到最近,在制定风险管理计划时,玩家的安全才成为一个考虑因素。场地状况并没有受到太多关注,因为它关系到球员的安全。在澳大利亚珀斯的Optus体育场发生了几起受伤事件,这引发了人们对比赛场地是否是原因的质疑。本研究的目的是确定已建立的运动场农艺措施预测足球场和足球场伤害的能力。根据土壤压实度、土壤湿度、表面硬度和草坪草质量,采用Logistic回归预测损伤。结果表明,场地条件较好的运动员发生损伤的概率最低,场地条件较差的运动员发生损伤的概率最高。这些结果为设施和运动场管理者提供了参数,可以用来确定运动场是否显示出低受伤风险,是否需要改进,或者是否应该取消比赛。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing pace-of-play in soccer using spatio-temporal event data 利用时空事件数据分析足球比赛的速度
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-05-04 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200581
Ethan Shen, Shawn Santo, O. Akande
Pace-of-play is an important characteristic in soccer that can influence the style and outcome of a match. Using event data provided by Wyscout covering one season of regular-season games from five European soccer leagues, we develop four velocity-based pace metrics and examine how pace varies across the pitch, between different leagues, and between different teams. Our findings show that although pace varies considerably, it is generally highest in the offensive third of the pitch, relatively consistent across leagues, and increases with decreasing team quality. Using hierarchical logistic models, we also assess whether the pace metrics are useful in predicting the outcome of a match by constructing models with and without the metrics. We find that the pace variables are statistically significant but only slightly improve the predictive accuracy metrics.
在足球比赛中,节奏是一个重要的特征,它可以影响比赛的风格和结果。使用Wyscout提供的涵盖五个欧洲足球联赛常规赛一个赛季的赛事数据,我们开发了四个基于速度的速度指标,并研究了不同球场、不同联赛和不同球队之间的速度变化情况。我们的研究结果表明,尽管速度差异很大,但通常在球场的进攻三分之一处最高,在各个联赛中相对一致,并且随着球队质量的下降而增加。使用分层逻辑模型,我们还通过构建有和没有指标的模型来评估速度指标在预测比赛结果方面是否有用。我们发现速度变量在统计上是显著的,但只略微提高了预测精度指标。
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引用次数: 2
A multi-criteria approach for evaluating major league baseball batting performance 评估棒球大联盟打击表现的多标准方法
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-03-26 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200298
S. Wulff, Priyantha G. De Silva
The evaluation of player performance typically involves a number of criteria representing various aspects of performance that are of interest. Pareto optimality and weighted aggregation are useful tools to simultaneously evaluate players with respect to the multiple criteria. In particular, the Pareto approach allows trade-offs among the criteria to be compared, does not require specifications of weighting schemes, and is not sensitive to the scaling of the criteria. The Pareto optimal players can be scored according to their ranks or according to their distance from the global optimum for informative comparisons of performance or for evaluating trade-offs among the criteria. These multi-criteria approaches are defined and illustrated for evaluating batting performance of Major League Baseball players.
对玩家表现的评估通常包含许多标准,这些标准代表了玩家感兴趣的表现的各个方面。帕累托最优性和加权聚合是同时根据多个标准评估玩家的有用工具。特别是,帕累托方法允许在标准之间进行比较,不需要权重方案的规格,并且对标准的缩放不敏感。帕累托最优参与者可以根据他们的排名或根据他们与全局最优的距离进行评分,以进行性能的信息比较或评估标准之间的权衡。这些多标准的方法被定义和说明,以评估美国职业棒球大联盟球员的打击表现。
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引用次数: 0
5% of Zion: Evaluating the potential for probability-split trades in professional sports 锡安的5%:评估职业体育中概率分割交易的潜力
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-02-23 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200490
Dawson M. Brown
In this paper, I propose and evaluate a novel extension of the analytics revolution in professional sports: probability-split trades. Under this plan, teams could trade probability shares in draft assets held. For example, a team like the New York Knicks could trade their first and second round picks for a 5% chance of winning the 1st overall pick. In the last two decades, the analytics revolution has transformed professional sports. General managers, coaches, and even players leverage the underlying math to gain any sort of competitive advantage, while major sports leagues view the analytics revolution with passive glee, as their potential viewer segments continue to expand. This paper is an extension of that revolution, outlining the details, feasibility, and potential benefits of a novel plan with the potential to increase exchange efficiency, boost revenue and sustain league growth in the NFL and NBA.
在本文中,我提出并评估了职业体育分析革命的一个新扩展:概率分割交易。根据该计划,球队可以交易所持有的选秀资产中的概率份额。例如,像纽约尼克斯队这样的球队可以用他们的第一轮和第二轮选秀权换取5%的机会赢得第一顺位。在过去的二十年里,分析革命改变了职业体育。总经理、教练甚至球员都利用潜在的数学来获得任何形式的竞争优势,而随着潜在观众群体的不断扩大,各大体育联盟对分析革命的看法是消极的。本文是这场革命的延伸,概述了一项新计划的细节、可行性和潜在好处,该计划有可能提高交换效率,增加收入,并维持NFL和NBA的联盟增长。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction of pitch type and location in baseball using ensemble model of deep neural networks 基于深度神经网络集成模型的棒球场地类型和位置预测
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200559
Jae Sik Lee
In the past decade, many data mining researches have been conducted on the sports field. In particular, baseball has become an important subject of data mining due to the wide availability of massive data from games. Many researchers have conducted their studies to predict pitch types, i.e., fastball, cutter, sinker, slider, curveball, changeup, knuckleball, or part of them. In this research, we also develop a system that makes predictions related to pitches in baseball. The major difference between our research and the previous researches is that our system is to predict pitch types and pitch locations at the same time. Pitch location is the place where the pitched ball arrives among the imaginary grids drawn in front of the catcher. Another difference is the number of classes to predict. In the previous researches for predicting pitch types, the number of classes to predict was 2∼7. However, in our research, since we also predict pitch locations, the number of classes to predict is 34. We build our prediction system using ensemble model of deep neural networks. We describe in detail the process of building our prediction system while avoiding overfitting. In addition, the performances of our prediction system in various game situations, such as loss/draw/win, count and baserunners situation, are presented.
在过去的十年里,人们对体育领域进行了大量的数据挖掘研究。特别是,由于比赛中大量数据的广泛可用性,棒球已经成为数据挖掘的一个重要主题。许多研究人员进行了研究来预测投球类型,即快速球、切球、伸卡球、滑球、曲球、变速球、指节球或其中的一部分。在这项研究中,我们还开发了一个系统,可以对棒球中的投球进行预测。我们的研究与以前的研究的主要区别在于,我们的系统是同时预测音高类型和音高位置。投球位置是指投球到达捕手前方假想网格中的位置。另一个区别是要预测的类的数量。在之前预测音高类型的研究中,需要预测的类别数量为2~7。然而,在我们的研究中,由于我们也预测球场位置,因此需要预测的类别数量为34。我们使用深度神经网络的集成模型来构建我们的预测系统。我们详细描述了在避免过拟合的同时构建预测系统的过程。此外,还介绍了我们的预测系统在各种比赛情况下的性能,如输/平/赢、计数和跑垒员情况。
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引用次数: 1
Optimizing the best play in basketball using deep learning 利用深度学习优化篮球的最佳发挥
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-02-15 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200524
L. Javadpour, Jessica Blakeslee, Mehdi A. Khazaeli, Pete Schroeder
In a close game of basketball, victory or defeat can depend on a single shot. Being able to identify the best player and play scenario for a given opponent’s defense can increase the likelihood of victory. Progress in technology has resulted in an increase in the popularity of sports analytics over the last two decades, where data can be used by teams and individuals to their advantage. A popular data analytic technique in sports is deep learning. Deep learning is a branch of machine learning that finds patterns within big data and can predict future decisions. The process relies on a raw dataset for training purposes. It can be utilized in sports by using deep learning to read the data and provide a better understanding of where players can be the most successful. In this study the data used were on division I women’s basketball games of a private university in a conference featuring top 25 teams. Deep learning was applied to optimize the best offensive play in a game scenario for a given set of features. The system is used to predict the play that would lead to the highest probability of a made shot.
在势均力敌的篮球比赛中,胜负取决于一次投篮。能够为特定对手的防守确定最佳球员和比赛场景可以增加获胜的可能性。在过去的二十年里,技术的进步导致体育分析越来越受欢迎,团队和个人可以利用这些数据为自己谋利。体育运动中一种流行的数据分析技术是深度学习。深度学习是机器学习的一个分支,它可以在大数据中找到模式,并预测未来的决策。该过程依赖于用于训练目的的原始数据集。它可以在体育运动中使用,通过使用深度学习来读取数据,并更好地了解球员在哪里最成功。在这项研究中,使用的数据是一所私立大学第一赛区女子篮球比赛的数据,该比赛由排名前25的球队参加。深度学习被应用于针对给定的一组特征优化游戏场景中的最佳进攻。该系统用于预测将导致投篮命中率最高的比赛。
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引用次数: 3
The collection, analysis and exploitation of footballer attributes: A systematic review 足球运动员特质的收集、分析与利用:系统综述
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-02-08 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200554
Edward Wakelam, V. Steuber, James Wakelam
There is growing on-going research into how footballer attributes, collected prior to, during and post-match, may address the demands of clubs, media pundits and gaming developers. Focusing upon individual player performance analysis and prediction, we examined the body of research which considers different player attributes. This resulted in the selection of 132 relevant papers published between 1999 and 2020. From these we have compiled a comprehensive list of player attributes, categorising them as static, such as age and height, or dynamic, such as pass completions and shots on target. To indicate their accuracy, we classified each attribute as objectively or subjectively derived, and finally by their implied accessibility and their likely personal and club sensitivity. We assigned these attributes to 25 logical groups such as passing, tackling and player demographics. We analysed the relative research focus on each group and noted the analytical methods deployed, identifying which statistical or machine learning techniques were used. We reviewed and considered the use of character trait attributes in the selected papers and discuss more formal approaches to their use. Based upon this we have made recommendations on how this work may be developed to support elite clubs in the consideration of transfer targets.
越来越多的研究正在进行中,研究在比赛前、比赛中和比赛后收集的足球运动员属性如何满足俱乐部、媒体专家和游戏开发商的需求。专注于个人球员的表现分析和预测,我们检查了考虑不同球员属性的研究主体。这使得1999年至2020年间发表的132篇相关论文被选中。根据这些,我们编制了一份全面的球员属性列表,将其分为静态(如年龄和身高)或动态(如传球完成和射门命中)。为了表明它们的准确性,我们将每个属性分类为客观或主观衍生的,最后根据它们隐含的可及性以及它们可能的个人和俱乐部敏感性。我们将这些属性分为25个逻辑组,如传球、铲球和球员人口统计。我们分析了每组的相对研究重点,并注意到所使用的分析方法,确定使用了哪些统计或机器学习技术。我们回顾并考虑了所选论文中性格特征属性的使用,并讨论了更正式的使用方法。在此基础上,我们就如何开展这项工作以支持精英俱乐部考虑转会目标提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Additional on-court advantages gained during eastward travel in the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs 美国国家篮球协会(NBA)季后赛东进期间获得的额外场上优势
IF 1.1 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM Pub Date : 2022-01-25 DOI: 10.3233/jsa-200577
S. Pradhan, R. Chachad, D. Alton
During the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs, teams are required to frequently travel to different venues to play opponents in series of up to seven games. Despite playoff schedules allowing for some rest between games, it is still possible for teams to face circadian misalignment when playing. Thus, the current study serves as a replication and extension of previous research, which has indicated that there is an advantage for teams playing closer to their circadian peak and when they are traveling east. This study specifically investigates the effects of travel, as well as time of game on various performance indicators in professional basketball. We examined a series of box-score statistics (e.g., game outcomes, points scored, shooting percentages, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and personal fouls) from a total of 499 postseason games played between the 2013–14 and 2018–19 NBA seasons. Findings from our study indicate that teams traveling eastward scored more points than teams traveling within the same time zone. We also observed that teams playing evening games had higher three-point shooting percentages than teams playing in the afternoon. Our study demonstrates an extended impact of travel and time of day on more specific performance indicators in the NBA. Future directions and implications for professional basketball and other sports are discussed.
在美国职业篮球协会(NBA)季后赛期间,球队需要经常前往不同的场地与对手进行多达七场的系列赛。尽管季后赛安排允许在比赛之间休息,但球队在比赛时仍然有可能面临昼夜节律失调。因此,目前的研究可以作为先前研究的复制和延伸,先前的研究表明,在接近他们的昼夜节律高峰和向东行进时打球的球队有优势。本研究专门调查了旅行和比赛时间对职业篮球各项表现指标的影响。我们分析了2013-14赛季至2018-19赛季NBA季后赛的499场比赛的一系列数据(如比赛结果、得分、命中率、篮板、助攻、抢断、盖帽、失误和个人犯规)。我们的研究结果表明,向东旅行的球队比在同一时区旅行的球队得分更高。我们还观察到,晚上比赛的球队比下午比赛的球队有更高的三分命中率。我们的研究证明了旅行和一天中的时间对NBA更具体的表现指标的延伸影响。讨论了职业篮球和其他运动的未来发展方向和影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Sports Analytics
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