Ground-level ozone (GLO) is a harmful air pollutant with significant impacts on human health and the environment. In Indonesia, GLO monitoring is limited, particularly in the densely populated capital, Jakarta, which has only five ground monitoring stations, underscoring the need for alternative approaches. This study aimed to map the spatial-temporal distribution of GLO concentrations in Jakarta from 2022 to 2024 using satellite data and machine learning. We integrated atmospheric, biophysical, and anthropogenic variables into three models: Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). LightGBM achieved the highest predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.73) when spatial geolocation was included. In this setting, SO2, the north-south wind component (V10), and Nighttime Light (NTL) emerged as the third most influential predictors. Spatial analysis revealed higher GLO concentrations in industrial and densely built-up areas, especially in North and West Jakarta. Seasonal trends showed peaks during the dry season (74.33 μg/m3) and significant declines in the rainy season (10.16 μg/m3), driven by solar radiation and atmospheric stability. The highest GLO levels were observed in 2023, coinciding with El Niño-related warming. Local Climate Zone (LCZ) analysis further indicated that built-up areas had higher GLO concentrations compared to vegetated zones. This study demonstrates the potential of combining remote sensing and machine learning to estimate GLO in tropical megacities with limited monitoring infrastructure. The findings can support data-driven urban planning and policies aimed at reducing ozone pollution and promoting green urban development.
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