Ultraviolet (UV) radiation is a critical environmental driver influencing ecological and human health, with its variability shaped by atmospheric factors and climate dynamics. This study examined the seasonal patterns and temporal trends of the erythemal UV radiation and key atmospheric variables in the Brazilian Amazon, using satellite remote sensing data from OMI/Aura and climate reanalysis data from CAMS spanning 2005 to 2022. Temporal trends were assessed using robust statistical approaches, while the relative influence of atmospheric drivers on erythemal UV variability was quantified using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations). A Susceptibility Index (SI) for UV-related health risks was developed, integrating biological, behavioral, and socioeconomic dimensions. Results revealed a distinct seasonal erythemal UV cycle, with peaks from January to April and lows from June to August, maintaining predominantly “very high” to “extreme” levels year-round. Statistically significant trends were observed in cloud optical thickness (COT) and total ozone column (TOC), while SHAP analysis indicated that variables such as water vapor (through its association with cloud processes), aerosols, and TOC emerged as primary predictors of surface UV, followed by PM2.5 and PM10, thereby reinforcing the model's potential as a tool for environmental health risk assessment. The SI indicated moderate to high susceptibility among most individuals, strongly modulated by social inequalities and sun exposure habits. The empirical validation of the SI through estimated UV dose and Minimal Erythemal Dose (MED) exceedance supports its potential as a tool for environmental health risk monitoring. These findings underscore the importance of integrated strategies that consider atmospheric and social factors to mitigate UV-related health risks in tropical regions under climate change scenarios.
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