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Exploratory analysis of PCM and thermal insulation strategies for buildings under future weather scenarios: Optimization of a residential prototype in the Global South – A case study in Brazil 未来天气情景下建筑的PCM和保温策略的探索性分析:全球南方住宅原型的优化-以巴西为例
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10389-z
Alexandre Santana Cruz, Leopoldo Eurico Gonçalves Bastos, Marcos Martinez Silvoso, Thiago Melo Grabois, Lucas Rosse Caldas

This study assessed a residential prototype located in the Global South, enhanced with thermal insulation and phase change material (PCM) in the envelope. The goal was to minimize discomfort hours and cooling energy demand while addressing the impact of climate change through future predicted weather files. To achieve this, EnergyPlus, coupled with the jEPlus + EA tool, employed the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII) for multi-objective optimization, while the CCWorldWeatherGen tool was used to generate future predicted weather files. The optimization centered on a case study located in the three hottest Brazilian bioclimatic zones. Various passive parameters related to the envelope were optimized, including building orientation, glazing solution, window size, shading device depth, thermal insulation, and PCM thickness, along with PCM melting temperature. Results highlighted the importance of optimizing the building’s orientation, glazing properties, window size, and shading devices for enhancing thermal-energy performance. As for the future weather conditions, combining these strategies with thermal insulation in cooling-dominant regions reduced the discomfort hours and energy demand by up to 80% and 60%, respectively. Although the findings were based on the Brazilian context, they are applicable to similar climates, especially in Global South countries.

本研究评估了位于全球南部的住宅原型,在外壳中使用隔热和相变材料(PCM)进行增强。其目标是尽量减少不适时间和冷却能源需求,同时通过未来预测天气文件解决气候变化的影响。为此,EnergyPlus结合jEPlus + EA工具,采用非支配排序遗传算法II (NSGAII)进行多目标优化,而CCWorldWeatherGen工具则用于生成未来预测天气文件。优化以位于巴西三个最热的生物气候带的案例研究为中心。与围护结构相关的各种被动式参数进行了优化,包括建筑朝向、玻璃溶液、窗户尺寸、遮阳装置深度、隔热层、PCM厚度以及PCM熔化温度。结果强调了优化建筑朝向、玻璃性能、窗户大小和遮阳装置对提高热能性能的重要性。至于未来的天气状况,将这些策略与以冷却为主的地区的隔热相结合,分别减少了80%和60%的不适时间和能源需求。尽管这些发现是基于巴西的情况,但它们适用于类似的气候,尤其是全球南方国家。
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引用次数: 0
Advancements in optimization strategies for energy routing, demand response, and load forecasting in energy internet and smart grid: an overview 能源互联网和智能电网中能源路由、需求响应和负荷预测优化策略的研究进展
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10385-3
Assala Nacef, Djamila Mechta, Lemia Louail, Saad Harous

Electricity plays a fundamental role in modern society, supporting essential services and contributing to economic and technological development. However, the centralized architecture of the traditional power grid and its dependence on fossil fuels have raised concerns regarding inefficiency, environmental impact, and limited operational flexibility. In response, Smart Grids (SG) and the Energy Internet (EI) have emerged as advanced paradigms that facilitate decentralized energy exchange, including peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading. These systems introduce new challenges, particularly in energy routing, load forecasting, and demand response. Despite growing research in these areas, the literature remains fragmented, with limited integration across these interdependent components. This review addresses this gap by examining the development of the Energy Internet, comparing it with Smart Grids, and analyzing its physical and software infrastructure. The operational principles of the EI are briefly outlined, and the main challenges related to energy routing, demand response, and load forecasting are discussed. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of energy routing within the SG and EI frameworks, highlighting its dependencies on load forecasting and demand response. Existing solutions in the literature are classified by method into graph theory, game theory, autonomous, and heuristic-based approaches, and are systematically compared. The findings presented in this review serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to advance the field of energy routing in the context of Smart Grids and the Energy Internet.

电力在现代社会中发挥着基础作用,支持基本服务,促进经济和技术发展。然而,传统电网的集中式结构及其对化石燃料的依赖引起了人们对效率低下、环境影响和运营灵活性有限的担忧。作为回应,智能电网(SG)和能源互联网(EI)已经成为促进分散式能源交换的先进范例,包括点对点(P2P)能源交易。这些系统带来了新的挑战,特别是在能源路由、负荷预测和需求响应方面。尽管在这些领域的研究越来越多,但文献仍然是碎片化的,这些相互依存的组成部分之间的整合有限。本文通过考察能源互联网的发展,将其与智能电网进行比较,并分析其物理和软件基础设施,解决了这一差距。简要概述了EI的工作原理,并讨论了与能源路由、需求响应和负荷预测相关的主要挑战。该研究对SG和EI框架内的能源路由进行了全面分析,强调了其对负荷预测和需求响应的依赖。文献中现有的解决方案按方法分为图论、博弈论、自治和启发式方法,并进行了系统的比较。本综述中提出的研究结果为寻求在智能电网和能源互联网背景下推进能源路由领域的研究人员和实践者提供了宝贵的资源。
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引用次数: 0
Thermal performance of a box-window double-skin façade with semi-transparent photovoltaics 半透明光电箱窗双层幕墙的热性能
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10382-6
Hoda Asdaghi, Rima Fayaz

This research investigates using a box-window double-skin facade with semi-transparent photovoltaics in an office building located in Iran's cold and dry climate to reduce energy consumption. Simulations were conducted using EnergyPlus and LadybugTools to analyze the facade's impact on heating, electricity generation, thermal comfort, and daylighting, with two air gap depths of 0.25 m and 0.5 m. Findings show that decreasing the air gap depth from 0.5 m to 0.25 m results in higher interior temperatures. During hot periods, the Outdoor Air Curtain mode of the box-window facade achieves greater indoor temperature reduction than the Air Exhaust mode. The study found that a 20% transparent PV configuration on the exterior of the façade generates less AC power than a 40% PV position inside. The AC power output for the whole year and the lowest amount of illuminance in June are 2099 kWh and 311 (20-Ex). For optimal daylighting throughout the year, the study recommends the 20% transparent PV setup, which results in 5.6% more energy savings compared to reference glass. This configuration achieved a maximum Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) of 1.04 in July while shading devices effectively reduced overheating.

这项研究调查了在伊朗寒冷干燥气候下的办公大楼中使用双层窗和半透明光伏幕墙,以减少能源消耗。使用EnergyPlus和LadybugTools进行模拟,分析立面对供暖、发电、热舒适和采光的影响,两个气隙深度分别为0.25 m和0.5 m。研究结果表明,将气隙深度从0.5 m减小到0.25 m会导致室内温度升高。在炎热的季节,盒窗立面的室外风幕模式比排风模式更能降低室内温度。研究发现,外墙20%透明的光伏组件比内部40%透明的光伏组件产生的交流电要少。全年交流输出功率2099 kWh, 6月最低照度311 (20-Ex)。为了实现全年最佳采光,该研究建议采用20%的透明光伏装置,与参考玻璃相比,可节省5.6%的能源。这种配置在7月份实现了1.04的最大预测平均投票(PMV),同时遮阳装置有效地减少了过热。
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引用次数: 0
What factors determine the adoption of solar home systems? Empirical evidence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan 哪些因素决定了太阳能家庭系统的采用?在巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省的经验证据
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10368-4
Syed Muhammad Amir, Martin J. Pasqualetti, Babar Shahbaz, Ashfaq Ahmad Shah, Iftikhar Ali, Syed Umair Anwar, Raza Ullah

Pakistan relies almost entirely on fossil fuels, producing significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that pose a serious threat to the ecosystem, particularly by contributing to global warming. Mitigating these effects requires a strong emphasis on the adoption of renewable energy sources. Prioritizing renewable energy sources not only reduces environmental harm but also helps bridge the gap between energy demand and supply, which continuously pushes a large portion of the population into energy poverty. This brings us to our principal questions: What are the determinant factors in the adoption of Solar Home Systems (SHS), and what problems are being faced by current users? To answer these questions, we surveyed 300 households through face-to-face interviews in two selected villages in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan. We employed the binary logistic regression model and frequency distributions coupled with percentages. The binary logistic regression results were found significant (χ2 (9) = 224.3 and P = 0.000) with the non-significant value (P = 0.290 > 0.05) of the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. Age and gender of the respondents have a negative influence on SHS adoption. In contrast, factors that positively impact adoption include education, income, family size, the cost-effectiveness of SHS compared to other alternatives, knowledge of SHS initial costs, knowledge of its operation and maintenance, and knowledge of its potential compared to other renewable energy sources. Despite the benefits of SHS, users face several challenges. The most significant issues include solar panel breakage due to strong winds, a lack of training opportunities for sustainable SHS use, higher-than-expected operational costs, and limited access to technical experts for troubleshooting. Additionally, we examined SHS users’ willingness to expand the capacity of their SHS in the future. The findings indicate that while households express interest in expansion, financial constraints limit their ability to scale up SHS capacity. SHS can be considered as a smart strategy in addressing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as the SDG 7 (emphasizing affordable and clean energy) and SDG 13 (climate action). This research serves as a baseline study, providing stakeholders the awareness related to the factors affecting SHS adoption. This research suggests that the government should work intensively on renewable energy promotion, including SHS to deal with the power shortage and the growing climate changes in the country. They should work closely with different organizations and companies providing quality SHS through public–private partnerships. The introduction of government subsidies, enhancing technical support and focusing on capacity building will attract widespread adoption of SHS. Moreover, regulatory and policy measures should be taken by allowing excess solar energy from SHS to be fed into the national grid (net metering) a

巴基斯坦几乎完全依赖化石燃料,产生大量的温室气体(GHG),对生态系统构成严重威胁,特别是导致全球变暖。减轻这些影响需要大力强调采用可再生能源。优先考虑可再生能源不仅可以减少对环境的危害,而且还有助于弥合能源需求和供应之间的差距,这种差距不断使很大一部分人口陷入能源贫困。这就引出了我们的主要问题:采用太阳能家庭系统(SHS)的决定因素是什么?当前用户面临着什么问题?为了回答这些问题,我们在巴基斯坦开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省选择了两个村庄,对300户家庭进行了面对面访谈。我们采用二元逻辑回归模型和频率分布与百分比耦合。二值logistic回归结果显示Hosmer和Lemeshow检验值不显著(P = 0.290 > 0.05),差异有统计学意义(χ2 (9) = 224.3, P = 0.000)。受访者的年龄和性别对SHS的采用有负向影响。相比之下,积极影响采用的因素包括教育程度、收入、家庭规模、与其他替代方案相比,SHS的成本效益、对SHS初始成本的了解、对其操作和维护的了解,以及对其与其他可再生能源相比的潜力的了解。尽管SHS有很多好处,但用户仍然面临着一些挑战。最重要的问题包括强风造成的太阳能电池板破损,缺乏可持续SHS使用的培训机会,高于预期的运营成本,以及技术专家排除故障的机会有限。此外,我们还调查了SHS用户在未来扩大其SHS容量的意愿。研究结果表明,尽管家庭表达了扩大住房保障服务的兴趣,但财政约束限制了他们扩大住房保障服务能力的能力。可持续发展目标7(强调负担得起的清洁能源)和可持续发展目标13(气候行动)是实现可持续发展目标(SDG)的明智策略。本研究作为一项基线研究,为利益相关者提供有关影响SHS采用的因素的认识。该研究建议政府应大力推广可再生能源,包括SHS,以应对该国的电力短缺和日益严重的气候变化。他们应该与通过公私伙伴关系提供高质量SHS的不同组织和公司密切合作。引入政府补贴,加强技术支持,注重能力建设,将吸引SHS的广泛采用。此外,还应采取管制和政策措施,允许SHS多余的太阳能进入国家电网(净计量),并确保公平定价。
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引用次数: 0
NABERS: 25 year program overview NABERS: 25年计划概述
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10376-4
Paul Bannister

In 2024, the National Australian Built Environment Rating Scheme (NABERS) celebrated 25 years since the launch of its first rating in 1999. This paper provides an overview of the scheme’s development and operation as well as showing data trends gathered from NABERS energy ratings. NABERS is one of few rating schemes internationally that focusses entirely on the measured in-use performance of existing buildings rather than design features. Buildings are rated based on their performance (e.g. energy use, water use from bills) relative to empirically derived benchmarks for an equivalent median building. NABERS also has a Commitment Agreement process for new buildings, which enables new building projects to commit to a post-construction NABERS rating. In the financial year 2023–24, NABERS certified 2228 office buildings in Australia, covering over 24 million m2 of office space. Over the life of the program, more than 4200 unique office buildings have been rated, representing the majority of the office sector in Australia. NABERS has catalysed significant improvements in operational energy efficiency in the office and shopping centre sectors via a combination of market-based and regulatory drivers. NABERS ratings are mandatory for office buildings seeking to sell or lease spaces greater than 1000m2. The success of NABERS is based on its simplicity, quality and relatively low cost, all of which make it well suited to the property industry. It has supported the commoditization of energy efficiency performance between building owners and tenants, and between portfolios and shareholders. In sectors where such market-based motivators are absent, however, NABERS has been less successful and further work is required to achieve uptake and efficiency improvements. Government-led procurement requirements and mandatory disclosure appear to be the most obvious drivers that could improve performance in these sectors.

2024年,澳大利亚国家建筑环境评级计划(NABERS)庆祝了自1999年推出第一个评级以来的25年。本文概述了该计划的发展和运作,并展示了从NABERS能源评级收集的数据趋势。NABERS是国际上为数不多的完全关注现有建筑在使用中的性能而不是设计特征的评级方案之一。建筑物的评级是基于它们的性能(例如能源使用,账单上的用水量),相对于经验得出的同等中位数建筑物的基准。NABERS还为新建筑制定了承诺协议流程,使新建筑项目能够承诺在施工后达到NABERS评级。在2023-24财政年度,NABERS在澳大利亚认证了2228栋办公楼,占地面积超过2400万平方米。在该计划的整个生命周期中,超过4200座独特的办公楼被评级,代表了澳大利亚大多数办公部门。NABERS通过市场和监管驱动因素的结合,促进了办公和购物中心部门运营能源效率的显著提高。对于寻求出售或租赁超过1000平方米的办公大楼,NABERS评级是强制性的。NABERS的成功是基于它的简单、高质量和相对较低的成本,所有这些都使它非常适合房地产行业。它支持了建筑业主和租户之间、投资组合和股东之间能效表现的商品化。然而,在缺乏这种基于市场的激励因素的部门,NABERS并不那么成功,需要进一步努力实现吸收和提高效率。政府主导的采购要求和强制性信息披露似乎是可能改善这些行业业绩的最明显驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Practices to collect and assess data on energy audits and energy management systems to inform the implementation of the European Energy Efficiency Directive 收集和评估能源审计和能源管理系统的数据,为实施欧洲能源效率指令提供信息
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10365-7
Ada Elsa Claus, Katharina Norpoth, Janine Hurtig, Daniel Vallentin

The European Union’s revised Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) obliges certain enterprises to conduct an energy audit or introduce an energy management system. This political instrument is expected to contribute to achieving the energy saving targets set by the European Union. However, the lack of comparable data in EU Member States complicates evaluations of its impact. A comparative analysis based on a collaboration between energy agencies from ten Member States shows different collection practices and varying availability of data on enterprises reporting an energy audit or energy management system. This indicates the need for harmonisation and standardisation of reporting processes and data collection to inform policy making. Furthermore, the analysis shows varying interpretations across Member States regarding the indicators on energy audits to be reported in their National Energy and Climate Progress Reports (NECPRs). To ensure good data quality in the NECPR database, the European Environment Agency should adopt guidelines and clear definitions for these indicators. The NECPR indicators proposed in this paper can serve as a basis for the European Commission to update reporting indicators under the revised EED. Moreover, Member States could agree to further harmonise their monitoring practices, including collecting and sharing data supplementary to the indicators reported via the NECPR. This paper suggests that they agree on a basic data set collected through their national procedures to monitor the energy audit and energy management system obligation under the EED. This paper proposes indicators for a basic data set to enable valuable impact analyses of this obligation.

欧盟修订后的能源效率指令(EED)要求某些企业进行能源审计或引入能源管理系统。预计这一政治手段将有助于实现欧洲联盟制定的节能目标。然而,由于欧盟成员国缺乏可比较的数据,对其影响的评价变得复杂。根据十个会员国能源机构之间的合作进行的比较分析显示,报告能源审计或能源管理系统的企业的收集做法不同,数据的可得性也不同。这表明需要统一和标准化报告程序和数据收集,以便为决策提供信息。此外,分析显示,各成员国对其国家能源和气候进展报告(necpr)中报告的能源审计指标的解释各不相同。为确保NECPR数据库的数据质量良好,欧洲环境署应为这些指标采用指导方针和明确定义。本文提出的NECPR指标可以作为欧盟委员会根据修订后的环境评估报告更新报告指标的基础。此外,会员国可以同意进一步协调其监测做法,包括收集和分享通过NECPR报告的指标补充数据。本文建议他们同意通过各自的国家程序收集基本数据集,以监测能源审计和能源管理系统在EED下的义务。本文提出了一个基本数据集的指标,以便对这一义务进行有价值的影响分析。
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引用次数: 0
Women’s empowerment and renewable energy consumption in Ghana: bridging gender disparities and advancing inclusive development 加纳妇女赋权和可再生能源消费:弥合性别差距,促进包容性发展
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10372-8
Emmanuel Y. Gbolonyo, Camara K. Obeng, Jacob Nunoo, Mark K. Armah

Despite the pressing need to accelerate renewable energy consumption (RE/REC) to achieve universal energy access and climate goals, the critical role of women as primary energy users remains underexplored in contemporary literature and energy policy. This study investigates the relationship between women’s empowerment (WE) and renewable energy consumption in Ghana, a focal point in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique based on annual time-series data from 1980 to 2020, we find that women's socio-economic and political empowerment positively influence REC in both the short and long run but the effect is significant with the former. Additionally, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and human capital enhance REC, whereas urbanization exerts a negative effect. We also use Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) to support our findings. Further analysis using Granger Causality test shows a unidirectional link from WE to REC. Finally, we use a novel Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) approach to show that REC increases at higher levels of WE. The study recommends implementing gender-sensitive financing, supporting women-led renewable energy enterprises, and enhancing female participation in energy governance to leverage WE for sustainable energy transitions in Ghana.

尽管迫切需要加快可再生能源消费(RE/REC)以实现普遍能源获取和气候目标,但在当代文献和能源政策中,妇女作为主要能源用户的关键作用仍未得到充分探讨。本研究调查了加纳妇女赋权(WE)与可再生能源消费之间的关系,加纳是撒哈拉以南非洲的一个焦点。利用基于1980 - 2020年年度时间序列数据的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整技术,我们发现妇女的社会经济和政治赋权在短期和长期都对REC产生积极影响,但前者的影响显著。人均GDP、外商直接投资和人力资本对REC有促进作用,而城市化对REC有负作用。我们还使用完全修正普通最小二乘(FMOLS)、动态普通最小二乘(DOLS)和典型协整回归(CCR)来支持我们的发现。通过进一步的格兰杰因果关系检验,我们发现了WE与REC之间的单向联系。最后,我们使用了一种新颖的基于核的正则化最小二乘(KRLS)方法,表明REC随着WE水平的提高而增加。该研究建议实施对性别问题敏感的融资,支持女性领导的可再生能源企业,并加强女性对能源治理的参与,以利用WE促进加纳的可持续能源转型。
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引用次数: 0
A systems-based analysis of energy demand reduction and efficiency policies using fuzzy cognitive maps 利用模糊认知地图对能源需求减少和效率政策进行系统分析
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10362-w
Guillermo Borragán, Tom Dauwe, Nele Renders

Energy Efficiency (EE) and Energy demand reduction (EDR) policies are crucial for addressing both energy security and climate change. However, despite their strategic importance, they often face significant barriers, including institutional resistance, limited funding, and short-term political priorities that tend to overlook long-term efficiency gains. This study utilizes fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) to model the factors influencing EE/EDR policy effectiveness across European countries. To capture the importance and interrelation of factors predefined from the literature, expert knowledge was leveraged through interviews with European energy agency representatives. Qualitative expert assessments were then transformed into numerical values, generating weighted causal matrices. Centrality measures subsequently identified key factors within an aggregated European model. Results revealed six pivotal factors: continuous financial support, favourable regulatory frameworks, consumer engagement, ease of implementation, long-term policy mandates, and support from industry and stakeholders. Scenario analysis explored the impact of three policy interventions: increased market actor support, weakened monitoring frameworks and increased energy literacy for end-consumers. The results of the interventions indicated that isolated interventions had limited impact on overall EE/EDR system outcomes, underscoring its complexity. However, consumer literacy initiatives mitigated negative behavioural effects, such as rebound effects and misaligned targeting, while weakened monitoring frameworks diminished policy coherence and increased redundancies. These findings reinforce the need for long-term policy stability, regulatory clarity, and robust end-user engagement. A systems-based approach, accounting for interdependencies and system dynamics, is crucial for effective EE/EDR policy design, as isolated interventions are insufficient.

能源效率(EE)和能源需求减少(EDR)政策对于解决能源安全和气候变化问题至关重要。然而,尽管它们具有战略重要性,但它们往往面临重大障碍,包括体制阻力、资金有限以及倾向于忽视长期效率收益的短期政治优先事项。本研究利用模糊认知图(fcm)来模拟影响欧洲国家EE/EDR政策有效性的因素。为了捕捉从文献中预定义的因素的重要性和相互关系,通过与欧洲能源机构代表的访谈,利用专家知识。然后将定性专家评估转换为数值,生成加权因果矩阵。中心性测量随后确定了汇总欧洲模型中的关键因素。结果显示了六个关键因素:持续的财政支持、有利的监管框架、消费者参与、实施的便利性、长期政策要求以及行业和利益相关者的支持。情景分析探讨了三项政策干预措施的影响:增加市场行为者支持、削弱监测框架和提高终端消费者的能源知识。干预措施的结果表明,孤立的干预措施对整体EE/EDR系统结果的影响有限,强调了其复杂性。然而,消费者素养倡议减轻了负面的行为影响,如反弹效应和不一致的目标,而监测框架的削弱降低了政策一致性,增加了冗余。这些发现强化了对长期政策稳定性、监管明确性和终端用户积极参与的需求。考虑到相互依赖性和系统动态的基于系统的方法对于有效的EE/EDR政策设计至关重要,因为孤立的干预措施是不够的。
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引用次数: 0
A comparison between different machine learning techniques for predicting heating energy consumption for residential buildings in a cold climate 预测寒冷气候下住宅建筑供暖能耗的不同机器学习技术的比较
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10379-1
Salah Vaisi, Navid Ahmadi, Ataollah Shirzadi, Bakhtiar Bahrami, Himan Shahabi, Mohammadjavad Mahdavinejad

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the security and sustainability of energy supply have been seriously highlighted. Approximately 90% of an urban context is residential buildings that demand a large amount of heating energy; therefore, predicting energy consumption is essential for successful energy supply and decision-making. This study aims to evaluate machine learning models for predicting the heating energy consumption for residential buildings in a cold climate, focusing on natural gas consumption for space heating and domestic hot water. Linking the building’s physical characteristics to socio-cultural and occupant behavioral characteristics, a novel dataset was developed in which 44 independent relevant variables were analyzed. The results indicate that XGBoost achieved the best performance with an MAE of 2.00, MSE of 2.61, RMSE of 1.61, and R2 of 0.90, followed by RF with an MAE of 1.32, MSE of 2.59, RMSE of 1.61, and R2 of 0.89, while ANN and LR showed lower performance. The feature importance analysis method identified the key variables significantly affecting heating energy consumption; therefore, among the building physics variables, space heating system (HVAC), total unit area, conditioned unit area, building age, and type of thermal insulation were the most effective predictors. Accordingly, among the socio-cultural and occupant behaviors, blocking the cooler channel in the cold seasons was the most effective variable. These findings can guide energy policymakers in designing sustainable heating strategies and assist architects and residents in optimizing energy use for cost savings and efficiency in cold climates.

自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来,能源供应的安全性和可持续性受到严重强调。大约90%的城市环境是需要大量供暖能源的住宅建筑;因此,能源消费预测对能源供应和决策的成功至关重要。本研究旨在评估用于预测寒冷气候下住宅建筑供暖能耗的机器学习模型,重点关注空间供暖和生活热水的天然气消耗。将建筑的物理特征与社会文化和居住者的行为特征联系起来,开发了一个新的数据集,其中分析了44个独立的相关变量。结果表明,XGBoost的最佳MAE为2.00,MSE为2.61,RMSE为1.61,R2为0.90,RF次之,MAE为1.32,MSE为2.59,RMSE为1.61,R2为0.89,ANN和LR的性能较差。特征重要性分析法识别出影响采暖能耗显著的关键变量;因此,在建筑物理变量中,空间供暖系统(HVAC)、总单位面积、条件单位面积、建筑年龄和保温类型是最有效的预测因子。因此,在社会文化和居住者行为中,在寒冷季节阻塞较冷的通道是最有效的变量。这些发现可以指导能源政策制定者设计可持续供暖策略,并帮助建筑师和居民在寒冷气候下优化能源使用,以节省成本和提高效率。
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引用次数: 0
Results and recommendations from a five-year evaluation of Germany's flagship programme for energy and resource efficiency in industry 德国工业能源和资源效率旗舰项目五年评估的结果和建议
IF 4 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1007/s12053-025-10366-6
Lisa Neusel, Simon Hirzel

The ‘Federal Funding Scheme for Energy and Resource Efficiency in the Economy’ (EEE) is a key programme supporting German companies in their transition to climate neutrality. The multi-measure programme funds various technologies through different funding modules, including technology-open funding. This paper presents results from five evaluation rounds (2019–2023) for the first time, extending the empirical basis on funding scheme evaluations for industrial energy efficiency. The methodological framework consists of quantitative and qualitative key performance indicators (KPIs) categorized by core evaluation areas. Particular attention is paid to the results on greenhouse gas savings and funding efficiency. As a second focus, recommendations from the evaluation for future energy and resource efficiency programmes are outlined. The KPI analysis reveals no substantial need for structural revisions: With 2.9 billion euros in funding, the EEE supported 9.7 billion euros in investments from 2019 to 2023. It achieved calculated annual gross GHG savings of nearly 7 million tonnes of CO2-eq. The evaluation also offers key insights: Establishing a streamlined target system with realistic objectives is important to avoid trade-offs between multiple aims. A stable funding environment, short processing times and clear guidelines support accessibility. Considering evaluation requirements during programme design can enhance data quality for ex-post analyses. Reaching underrepresented groups can be enhanced by engaging multipliers, using new communication channels, and offering targeted support for SMEs. Finally, the evaluation shows that while a technology-open funding approach supports significant savings, technology-focused funding promotes broader engagement and future funding opportunities, underscoring the validity of both approaches in the funding landscape.

“经济中能源和资源效率联邦资助计划”(EEE)是支持德国企业向气候中和转型的关键项目。这项多措施计划通过不同的资助模式,包括技术开放资助,资助各种技术。本文首次给出了2019-2023年五轮评价结果,拓展了工业能效资助方案评价的实证基础。方法框架包括按核心评估领域分类的定量和定性关键绩效指标(kpi)。特别注意在节约温室气体和提高筹资效率方面取得的成果。作为第二个重点,概述了评价对未来能源和资源效率方案的建议。关键绩效指标分析显示,没有实质性的结构性修订需求:EEE拥有29亿欧元的资金,在2019年至2023年期间支持了97亿欧元的投资。它实现了计算出的每年温室气体排放总量减少近700万吨二氧化碳当量。评估还提供了关键的见解:建立具有现实目标的流线型目标系统对于避免在多个目标之间进行权衡非常重要。稳定的融资环境、较短的处理时间和明确的指导方针支持可及性。在方案设计期间考虑评价要求可以提高事后分析的数据质量。通过让乘数者参与进来、使用新的沟通渠道以及为中小企业提供有针对性的支持,可以加强接触代表性不足的群体。最后,评估表明,虽然技术开放的筹资方式支持大量节约,但以技术为重点的筹资方式促进了更广泛的参与和未来的筹资机会,强调了两种方法在筹资领域的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Efficiency
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