Pub Date : 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101358
Babtista Putri Grahani , Fernan Patrick Flores , Yogi Tri Prasetyo , Maela Madel L. Cahigas , Reny Nadlifatin , Ma Janice J. Gumasing
As Greater Jakarta is highly vulnerable to flood disasters that pose significant economic risks, enhancing residents' preparedness has become a critical policy priority. This study extended the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) by incorporating both external factors and PMT constructs to examine their influence on flood preparedness intentions. While PMT has been commonly applied using traditional methods like Structural Equation Modeling, such approaches often assume linear relationships and rely on rigid model structures. To overcome these limitations, this study integrated Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a flexible, data-driven method for identifying influential predictors. Following hyperparameter experimentation, the optimal Multilayer Perceptron model was configured with one hidden layer comprising forty nodes, using the Adam optimizer and Swish-Sigmoid activation functions for both hidden and output layers. The results showed that Coping Appraisal, Threat Appraisal, Flood Experience, Media Exposure, Geographical Perspective, and Government Action all positively influenced respondents’ Protection Motivation, with Coping Appraisal identified as the most influential factor. These findings provide actionable insights for local policymakers and organizations, while also demonstrating the potential of ANN as a powerful tool in behavioral disaster preparedness research.
{"title":"Assessing factors influencing flood preparedness among Jakarta residents: A multilayer perceptron artificial neural network based on protection motivation theory","authors":"Babtista Putri Grahani , Fernan Patrick Flores , Yogi Tri Prasetyo , Maela Madel L. Cahigas , Reny Nadlifatin , Ma Janice J. Gumasing","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101358","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101358","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As Greater Jakarta is highly vulnerable to flood disasters that pose significant economic risks, enhancing residents' preparedness has become a critical policy priority. This study extended the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) by incorporating both external factors and PMT constructs to examine their influence on flood preparedness intentions. While PMT has been commonly applied using traditional methods like Structural Equation Modeling, such approaches often assume linear relationships and rely on rigid model structures. To overcome these limitations, this study integrated Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a flexible, data-driven method for identifying influential predictors. Following hyperparameter experimentation, the optimal Multilayer Perceptron model was configured with one hidden layer comprising forty nodes, using the Adam optimizer and Swish-Sigmoid activation functions for both hidden and output layers. The results showed that Coping Appraisal, Threat Appraisal, Flood Experience, Media Exposure, Geographical Perspective, and Government Action all positively influenced respondents’ Protection Motivation, with Coping Appraisal identified as the most influential factor. These findings provide actionable insights for local policymakers and organizations, while also demonstrating the potential of ANN as a powerful tool in behavioral disaster preparedness research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101358"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-24DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101360
Ahmad Dhiaulhaq , Maxensius Tri Sambodo , Syarif Hidayat , Nicholas Stacher , Dewi Sari , Tomi Haryadi , Eve McDonald-Madden , Anna Gero , Tamara Megaw , Cynthia Maharani , Meirella Rumfabe
Sustainable development aims to reconcile the complex, often competing goals of ecosystem preservation, socio-economic development, and resource management. This article presents insights from Southwest Papua province, Indonesia, home to globally significant terrestrial and marine ecosystems that are critical for biodiversity, carbon storage, and the livelihoods of Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs). Increasing exploitation of natural resources, environmental degradation and socio-economic inequities pose serious challenges to sustainable development in this region. The study focuses on integrating Ridge to Reef (R2R) governance frameworks and sustainable finance mechanisms to address the dual challenges of biodiversity loss and socio-economic disparities. Specifically, we investigate how ‘joined-up government’ and innovative financial strategies can support sustainable and inclusive management of Southwest Papua's interconnected ecosystems. The study examines governance gaps and sustainable financing approaches to propose an institutional model for integrated R2R management. Using a mixed-methods approach, including interviews, focus group discussions, and participatory workshops, we developed a proposed governance framework and financing strategies tailored to Southwest Papua's unique ecological and cultural contexts. This research highlights the need to establish the Ridge to Reef Collaboration Agency (R2R-CA) as an entry point to strengthen capabilities and resources. This institution can also open up opportunities to build innovative R2R financing models. It suggests that a blended finance model, where public sector results-based payment schemes help de-risk private capital, can significantly enhance holistic R2R conservation while promoting more equitable resource sharing. Findings emphasize the importance of inclusive governance structures, such as the proposed R2R-CA, to bridge sectoral divides, foster community participation, and empower local perspectives in decision-making.
{"title":"Joined-up governance and sustainable finance for inclusive ridge-to-reef conservation in Southwest Papua, Indonesia","authors":"Ahmad Dhiaulhaq , Maxensius Tri Sambodo , Syarif Hidayat , Nicholas Stacher , Dewi Sari , Tomi Haryadi , Eve McDonald-Madden , Anna Gero , Tamara Megaw , Cynthia Maharani , Meirella Rumfabe","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101360","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101360","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainable development aims to reconcile the complex, often competing goals of ecosystem preservation, socio-economic development, and resource management. This article presents insights from Southwest Papua province, Indonesia, home to globally significant terrestrial and marine ecosystems that are critical for biodiversity, carbon storage, and the livelihoods of Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs). Increasing exploitation of natural resources, environmental degradation and socio-economic inequities pose serious challenges to sustainable development in this region. The study focuses on integrating Ridge to Reef (R2R) governance frameworks and sustainable finance mechanisms to address the dual challenges of biodiversity loss and socio-economic disparities. Specifically, we investigate how ‘joined-up government’ and innovative financial strategies can support sustainable and inclusive management of Southwest Papua's interconnected ecosystems. The study examines governance gaps and sustainable financing approaches to propose an institutional model for integrated R2R management. Using a mixed-methods approach, including interviews, focus group discussions, and participatory workshops, we developed a proposed governance framework and financing strategies tailored to Southwest Papua's unique ecological and cultural contexts. This research highlights the need to establish the Ridge to Reef Collaboration Agency (R2R-CA) as an entry point to strengthen capabilities and resources. This institution can also open up opportunities to build innovative R2R financing models. It suggests that a blended finance model, where public sector results-based payment schemes help de-risk private capital, can significantly enhance holistic R2R conservation while promoting more equitable resource sharing. Findings emphasize the importance of inclusive governance structures, such as the proposed R2R-CA, to bridge sectoral divides, foster community participation, and empower local perspectives in decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101360"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101322
A.S. Amaral , S.P. Milián , F.F. Ferreira , G.E. Silva Jr. , P.F. Amaral
The paper proposes a framework for integrating natural capital into the accounting structures of monetary authorities to formulate exchange, fiscal, monetary, and social policies. It starts by highlighting the importance of currency from an economic perspective and introduces a methodology for calculating natural capital. This model aims to influence the consolidated balance sheet of monetary authorities, offering new insights different from traditional annuity-based accounting prices. By quantifying environmental wealth similarly to financial assets on central bank balance sheets, the framework intends to reflect real economic values and guide macroeconomic policy. The study suggests that an increase in environmental wealth could enhance the real value of a environmental currency, contrary to inflationary pressures. The paper also proposes future research directions, including the potential for an environmental cryptocurrency. Ultimately, this approach seeks to support sustainable development and improve societal well-being by aligning economic activities with environmental preservation.
{"title":"A proposal for an environmental currency: Integrating natural wealth into monetary policy","authors":"A.S. Amaral , S.P. Milián , F.F. Ferreira , G.E. Silva Jr. , P.F. Amaral","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The paper proposes a framework for integrating natural capital into the accounting structures of monetary authorities to formulate exchange, fiscal, monetary, and social policies. It starts by highlighting the importance of currency from an economic perspective and introduces a methodology for calculating natural capital. This model aims to influence the consolidated balance sheet of monetary authorities, offering new insights different from traditional annuity-based accounting prices. By quantifying environmental wealth similarly to financial assets on central bank balance sheets, the framework intends to reflect real economic values and guide macroeconomic policy. The study suggests that an increase in environmental wealth could enhance the real value of a environmental currency, contrary to inflationary pressures. The paper also proposes future research directions, including the potential for an environmental cryptocurrency. Ultimately, this approach seeks to support sustainable development and improve societal well-being by aligning economic activities with environmental preservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101322"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-19DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101355
María Grijelmo , MªBegoña Etxebarria , Astrid Barona , Naiara Rojo , Francisco Sánchez-Fuente
While the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a global framework for progress, assessing the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at regional level remains a challenge. Methodological difficulties arise in indicator selection, data processing, and result interpretation, which must account for each region's unique social, economic, and political context. In this study, the United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals Report methodology is tested and adapted for regional application to enhance its suitability and comparability. The Basque Country, a region in northern Spain, serves as case study, where the performance of all SDGs and the overall SDG Index are calculated based on a non-compensatory approach. In the case study, the region reached an overall SDG Index of 40.69 %. Performance across the individual SDGs varied considerably, ranging from 0 % for SDG14 (Live below water) to 81.89 % for SDG12 (Responsible consumption and production). Given the level of industrial development in the Basque Country, it is also worth noting that SDG 9 (Industry, innovation, and infrastructure) performed relatively well, achieving a score of 76.44 %. The non-compensatory approach used in this study not only provides a robust basis for evaluating SDG progress at the regional level but also serves as a proposal for inter-territorial comparisons, with potential implications for national assessments.
{"title":"Sustainable Development Goals at regional level: Case study for enhancing performance assessment","authors":"María Grijelmo , MªBegoña Etxebarria , Astrid Barona , Naiara Rojo , Francisco Sánchez-Fuente","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101355","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101355","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a global framework for progress, assessing the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at regional level remains a challenge. Methodological difficulties arise in indicator selection, data processing, and result interpretation, which must account for each region's unique social, economic, and political context. In this study, the United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals Report methodology is tested and adapted for regional application to enhance its suitability and comparability. The Basque Country, a region in northern Spain, serves as case study, where the performance of all SDGs and the overall SDG Index are calculated based on a non-compensatory approach. In the case study, the region reached an overall SDG Index of 40.69 %. Performance across the individual SDGs varied considerably, ranging from 0 % for SDG14 (Live below water) to 81.89 % for SDG12 (Responsible consumption and production). Given the level of industrial development in the Basque Country, it is also worth noting that SDG 9 (Industry, innovation, and infrastructure) performed relatively well, achieving a score of 76.44 %. The non-compensatory approach used in this study not only provides a robust basis for evaluating SDG progress at the regional level but also serves as a proposal for inter-territorial comparisons, with potential implications for national assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101355"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145219649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-18DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101357
Cortni Borgerson , Katherine J. Kling , Amie Wuchter , Elison Pascal , Ellie M. Paschalis , Be Noel Razafindrapaoly , Timothy M. Eppley
While conservation livelihood programs aim to reduce both poverty and unsustainable land-based economies, interventions often remain dependent on land availability. However, land is a limited resource, especially for those living near the world's protected areas. Therefore, to plan effective conservation and livelihood programs, it is important to understand how livelihood decisions are made under land limitations and their effects on human welfare and natural resource use. We interviewed 892 people living within 3 km of Madagascar's Anjanaharibe-Sud Special Reserve to examine: (1) how income is earned while navigating land limitations and easy access to both forests and markets; (2) the correlations between different income-earning strategies, land and natural resource use, and human wellbeing; and (3) the barriers and opportunities for livelihood interventions within this connected rural system. We found that families relied on diverse income-earning strategies best characterized by salaried labor and entrepreneurship and the sale of dual-subsistence and cash crops. Families with insufficient land relied heavily on salaried labor and entrepreneurship. However, this was not a choice of preferred market- over land-based income opportunities, but instead an insufficient fallback strategy that increased poverty and natural resource extraction. Entrepreneurship appears to be constrained by insufficient access to both capital goods (incl. infrastructure) and human capital (incl. education), limiting opportunities for skilled labor. Until entrepreneurship and skilled labor opportunities in park-adjacent Madagascar are improved, families will continue to face strong incentives to clear forests for agriculture and rely on the natural resources within them. Culturally-aware livelihoods interventions which support non-land-based production are urgently needed to secure a sustainable future for Madagascar's people and forests alike.
{"title":"How economic choices affect livelihoods in Madagascar's park-adjacent communities and what it means for conservation and development","authors":"Cortni Borgerson , Katherine J. Kling , Amie Wuchter , Elison Pascal , Ellie M. Paschalis , Be Noel Razafindrapaoly , Timothy M. Eppley","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101357","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101357","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While conservation livelihood programs aim to reduce both poverty and unsustainable land-based economies, interventions often remain dependent on land availability. However, land is a limited resource, especially for those living near the world's protected areas. Therefore, to plan effective conservation and livelihood programs, it is important to understand how livelihood decisions are made under land limitations and their effects on human welfare and natural resource use. We interviewed 892 people living within 3 km of Madagascar's Anjanaharibe-Sud Special Reserve to examine: (1) how income is earned while navigating land limitations and easy access to both forests and markets; (2) the correlations between different income-earning strategies, land and natural resource use, and human wellbeing; and (3) the barriers and opportunities for livelihood interventions within this connected rural system. We found that families relied on diverse income-earning strategies best characterized by salaried labor and entrepreneurship and the sale of dual-subsistence and cash crops. Families with insufficient land relied heavily on salaried labor and entrepreneurship. However, this was not a choice of preferred market- over land-based income opportunities, but instead an insufficient fallback strategy that increased poverty and natural resource extraction. Entrepreneurship appears to be constrained by insufficient access to both capital goods (incl. infrastructure) and human capital (incl. education), limiting opportunities for skilled labor. Until entrepreneurship and skilled labor opportunities in park-adjacent Madagascar are improved, families will continue to face strong incentives to clear forests for agriculture and rely on the natural resources within them. Culturally-aware livelihoods interventions which support non-land-based production are urgently needed to secure a sustainable future for Madagascar's people and forests alike.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101357"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145121263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-17DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101337
Luciane Martins de Araújo , Manuel Eduardo Ferreira , José Antônio Tietzmann e Silva , Giovanni Martins de A. Mascarenhas , Altair Sales Barbosa , Mariana Pires de Campos Telles , José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho , Ludgero Cardoso Galli Vieira , Geraldo Wilson Fernandes , Stephannie Fernandes , José Aluízio Ferreira Lima , Flávia de Figueiredo Machado
{"title":"Law 22017/2023: a dire threat to the Cerrado's survival and Brazil's environmental leadership","authors":"Luciane Martins de Araújo , Manuel Eduardo Ferreira , José Antônio Tietzmann e Silva , Giovanni Martins de A. Mascarenhas , Altair Sales Barbosa , Mariana Pires de Campos Telles , José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho , Ludgero Cardoso Galli Vieira , Geraldo Wilson Fernandes , Stephannie Fernandes , José Aluízio Ferreira Lima , Flávia de Figueiredo Machado","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101337","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101337","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101337"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693349","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101354
Rukuh Setiadi , Joerg Baumeister , Alex Y. Lo , Luna Perita
{"title":"Living on top of water: Public attitude toward floating houses in North Jakarta, Indonesia","authors":"Rukuh Setiadi , Joerg Baumeister , Alex Y. Lo , Luna Perita","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101354","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101354","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101354"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145105084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-10DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101353
Kieren Rudge
Adapting to climate change is crucial for islands, as they are disproportionately vulnerable to climate threats that are often exacerbated by processes of colonialism. Non-self-governing territories face additional barriers due to their liminal political statuses being neither independent nations nor fully incorporated states. This causes territories and the peoples who live there to have minimal self-determination in decision-making processes. Indigenous communities in territories are further marginalized by power structures that favor Western scientific-technical climate solutions over Indigenous ontological approaches. To foster just adaptation, scholars studying non-self-governing territories must consider these forms of marginalization. This review focuses on the five U.S.-controlled unincorporated territories. Through a systematic review, I examine whether and how climate adaptation research on U.S. territories discusses the following three themes: (1) colonialism and political status, (2) justice, and (3) Indigenous knowledge. The analysis reveals that while justice is discussed in most studies, colonialism and political status are less commonly grappled with, and Indigenous knowledge is highly understudied. Further, different concepts of justice are incorporated to varying degrees with emphasis being placed on recognition, procedural, and distributive justice, while restorative and transformative justice are rarely considered. By analyzing the current state of climate change adaptation research on U.S. territories, I produce insights into the omissions and inclusions of key themes in existing research. I argue that adaptation scholars must pay greater attention to non-self-governing territories where colonialism and climate change are reproducing injustices. Finally, I propose new directions for adaptation research on colonized islands and territories more broadly.
{"title":"Colonialism, justice, and Indigenous knowledge: A critical analysis of climate change adaptation scholarship on U.S. territories","authors":"Kieren Rudge","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101353","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101353","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adapting to climate change is crucial for islands, as they are disproportionately vulnerable to climate threats that are often exacerbated by processes of colonialism. Non-self-governing territories face additional barriers due to their liminal political statuses being neither independent nations nor fully incorporated states. This causes territories and the peoples who live there to have minimal self-determination in decision-making processes. Indigenous communities in territories are further marginalized by power structures that favor Western scientific-technical climate solutions over Indigenous ontological approaches. To foster just adaptation, scholars studying non-self-governing territories must consider these forms of marginalization. This review focuses on the five U.S.-controlled unincorporated territories. Through a systematic review, I examine whether and how climate adaptation research on U.S. territories discusses the following three themes: (1) colonialism and political status, (2) justice, and (3) Indigenous knowledge. The analysis reveals that while justice is discussed in most studies, colonialism and political status are less commonly grappled with, and Indigenous knowledge is highly understudied. Further, different concepts of justice are incorporated to varying degrees with emphasis being placed on recognition, procedural, and distributive justice, while restorative and transformative justice are rarely considered. By analyzing the current state of climate change adaptation research on U.S. territories, I produce insights into the omissions and inclusions of key themes in existing research. I argue that adaptation scholars must pay greater attention to non-self-governing territories where colonialism and climate change are reproducing injustices. Finally, I propose new directions for adaptation research on colonized islands and territories more broadly.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101353"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-10DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101352
Fei Huang, Yangyang Liang, Jinhui Li, Lili Liu
The large-scale development of wind power is a critical pathway for achieving China's carbon neutrality goals. However, its rapid expansion faces multiple challenges, including constraints in material supply and end-of-life (EoL) management. This study develops a top-down dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) model and systematically assesses the intensity of material demand, the spatial and temporal distribution of EoL wind turbines, and supply risks by integrating multiple energy and technology scenarios. Our study reveals that the primary barriers lie in the heavy reliance on rare earth elements (REEs) and EoL management in the North, Northwest, and East China. By 2050, the cumulative REEs demand would be 155.1–246.8 kt, with dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) facing high risks. Recycling EoL turbines in key regions could mitigate material shortages by contributing 28 %, 22 %, and 18 % of national secondary supply by 2050. This reduces the supply pressure for Dy from 55.6 % to 49.6 %, although a shortfall remains for Tb. To ensure long-term material security, it is imperative to further expand REEs recycling or explore recovery through urban mining.
{"title":"Barriers to China's wind power target: waste generation and supply risks analysis","authors":"Fei Huang, Yangyang Liang, Jinhui Li, Lili Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The large-scale development of wind power is a critical pathway for achieving China's carbon neutrality goals. However, its rapid expansion faces multiple challenges, including constraints in material supply and end-of-life (EoL) management. This study develops a top-down dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) model and systematically assesses the intensity of material demand, the spatial and temporal distribution of EoL wind turbines, and supply risks by integrating multiple energy and technology scenarios. Our study reveals that the primary barriers lie in the heavy reliance on rare earth elements (REEs) and EoL management in the North, Northwest, and East China. By 2050, the cumulative REEs demand would be 155.1–246.8 kt, with dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) facing high risks. Recycling EoL turbines in key regions could mitigate material shortages by contributing 28 %, 22 %, and 18 % of national secondary supply by 2050. This reduces the supply pressure for Dy from 55.6 % to 49.6 %, although a shortfall remains for Tb. To ensure long-term material security, it is imperative to further expand REEs recycling or explore recovery through urban mining.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54269,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Development","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101352"},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145265730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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