Environmental Development最新文献_第7页

Sustainable homestay tourism in the Himalayas: A multicriteria evaluation approach 喜马拉雅地区可持续民宿旅游：多标准评估方法

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101390

Payel Bhattacharya , Subrata Haldar , Arijit Das , Manob Das , Bhaskar Samanta , Suman Paul

Homestay tourism in hilly areas has arisen as a sustainable alternative to conventional tourist, prioritizing cultural immersion and the enhancement of local economies. This study assesses the viability of Homestay tourist locations in the Himalayan region, namely the Kalimpong district in India, employing the CRITIC-PROMETHEE-GAIA methodology. The research employs multi-criteria decision-making methodologies to evaluate essential elements including physical accessibility, infrastructure, social dynamics, and environmental sustainability at twelve homestay locations. The research identified 15 indicators affecting tourism potential in Kalimpong, classified into advantageous and disadvantageous attributes. Kolakham obtained the highest score among homestays owing to its exceptional performance in accessibility, accommodation, and resource availability, whereas Rocky Island received the lowest grade. PROMETHEE I and II investigations identified clusters of sites with middling performance, including Kaffergaon, Charkhole, and Ramdhura. Environmental factors (P1–P3) and infrastructure (I1–I6) significantly influenced rankings. Sensitivity and GAIA analysis indicated trade-offs among criteria, with Kolakham exhibiting alignment with important utilities. Poor economic indicators inhibited sites like Rocky Island and Durpindara, underlining the need for focused infrastructure, social services, and sustainable economic development measures. Management strategies should focus on building infrastructure, boosting social entrepreneurship, and expanding market access to support sustainable livelihoods (SDG 8). Enhancing community resilience via social services (SDG 11), mitigating pollution (SDG 13), and conserving natural landscapes (SDG 15) are imperative. Site-specific interventions targeting economic, social, and environmental dimensions can ensure inclusive and balanced growth aligned with SDG goals.

山区的民宿旅游已经成为传统旅游的可持续选择，优先考虑文化沉浸和促进当地经济。本研究采用critical - promehee - gaia方法，评估了喜马拉雅地区（即印度噶伦蓬地区）民宿旅游地点的可行性。该研究采用多标准决策方法来评估12个寄宿家庭的基本要素，包括物理可达性、基础设施、社会动态和环境可持续性。研究确定了影响噶伦堡旅游潜力的15个指标，并将其分为有利属性和不利属性。Kolakham由于在可达性、住宿和资源可用性方面的出色表现，在寄宿家庭中获得了最高分，而Rocky Island则获得了最低分。PROMETHEE I和II的调查确定了表现中等的地点群，包括Kaffergaon、Charkhole和Ramdhura。环境因素（P1-P3）和基础设施（I1-I6）对排名影响显著。敏感性和GAIA分析表明了标准之间的权衡，Kolakham表现出与重要公用事业的一致性。糟糕的经济指标抑制了像Rocky Island和Durpindara这样的地方，强调了重点基础设施、社会服务和可持续经济发展措施的必要性。管理战略应侧重于建设基础设施、促进社会创业和扩大市场准入，以支持可持续生计（可持续发展目标8）。通过社会服务（可持续发展目标11）、减轻污染（可持续发展目标13）和保护自然景观（可持续发展目标15）增强社区复原力势在必行。针对经济、社会和环境层面的具体地点干预措施可以确保与可持续发展目标相一致的包容性和平衡增长。

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引用次数: 0

Designing a comprehensive framework for assessing forest sustainability in India 设计一个评估印度森林可持续性的综合框架

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101370

Aaheli Chaki , Bhaskar Sinha , Jigyasa Bisaria , Ashutosh Verma , Carsten Schusser

It is imperative for every country to establish a comprehensive framework for monitoring and reporting on forest sustainability, given the increasing recognition of forests for their diverse benefits and services. This is especially important for a country like India, which has the largest population in the world, and millions of marginalized communities are reliant on forest resources for their sustenance. With increasing anthropogenic pressure and climate change impacts, a holistic monitoring framework of forests, considering ecological, social, and economic dimensions, can help design context-specific interventions for strengthening forest management and enhancing livelihoods. A detailed review of existing monitoring and reporting frameworks in India and the world revealed that they are continuously evolving to meet the growing recognition of forests for their multiple roles and benefits. However, India's frameworks lack a comprehensive approach to capturing the social and economic aspects of sustainability. In this context, the current paper proposes a list of twenty-eight (28) indicators and sixty-four (64) sub-indicators pertaining to the ecological, social, and economic dimensions through a literature review to assess the sustainability of forests in India. Parallelly, it also identifies the existing sources and stakeholders for collecting data on the proposed indicators to reduce the overlap, inconsistencies and redundancy. Furthermore, building the capacities of concerned officials and improving coordination between the nodal organizations to strengthen the existing forest monitoring and reporting practices is also recommended. Such a comprehensive indicator-based framework would support informed decision-making in optimising the diverse forest-based benefits and prioritising actions to achieve the goal of sustainable forest management.

鉴于人们日益认识到森林的各种惠益和服务，每个国家都必须建立监测和报告森林可持续性的综合框架。这对印度这样一个拥有世界上最多人口的国家尤其重要，数百万边缘化社区依赖森林资源维持生计。随着人为压力和气候变化影响的增加，考虑到生态、社会和经济层面的森林整体监测框架可以帮助设计针对具体情况的干预措施，以加强森林管理和改善生计。对印度和世界现有监测和报告框架的详细审查表明，它们正在不断发展，以满足人们日益认识到森林的多重作用和利益。然而，印度的框架缺乏一种全面的方法来捕捉可持续性的社会和经济方面。在此背景下，本文通过文献综述，提出了与生态、社会和经济维度有关的28个指标和64个子指标清单，以评估印度森林的可持续性。同时，它还确定了收集拟议指标数据的现有来源和利益相关者，以减少重叠、不一致和冗余。此外，还建议建立有关官员的能力和改进各节点组织之间的协调，以加强现有的森林监测和报告做法。这样一个以指标为基础的全面框架将支持在充分了解情况的情况下作出决策，使各种森林利益达到最佳，并确定行动的优先次序，以实现可持续森林管理的目标。

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引用次数: 0

Participatory scenario planning for sustainable development in San Pedro de Atacama, Chile: Addressing water scarcity and cultural preservation 智利圣佩德罗德阿塔卡马可持续发展参与式情景规划：解决水资源短缺和文化保护问题

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101316

Sonia Salas-Bravo , Andrés Bodini-Salas , Angelo Araya-Piñones

Global changes present significant challenges for development, particularly for Indigenous communities, owing to their economic and social impacts. This study explored participatory scenarios for the sustainable development of San Pedro de Atacama, over time scales of 10, 30, 50, and 100 years. Using a mixed-methods approach (quan→ QUAL), the research engaged key stakeholders, with an emphasis on the local Indigenous Lican Antai population, to identify critical pressures and events influencing the region's future. The findings reveal deep concerns regarding water scarcity, climate change, expanding lithium mining, increased tourism, and loss of Indigenous cultural identity. Two main scenarios have emerged: “Social Water Management and “Social Distrust”. In both scenarios, future development could result in a significant loss of historical and cultural roots and deterioration of biodiversity. Water scarcity has been identified as a critical factor catalyzing potential events, such as migration, population reduction, the decline of agriculture, and the emergence of new water management initiatives. This study proposes six strategic axes for sustainable development: community unity, multi-perspective tourism planning, territorial management, trust-building, leadership strengthening, and conflict transformation. Successful implementation requires coordination with higher levels of governance and efforts to incorporate traditional and Indigenous knowledge into public policies and management strategies. This pioneering study offers crucial insights into community perceptions of climate vulnerability and pathways for sustainable development in the Atacama Desert region.

全球变化由于其经济和社会影响，对发展，特别是对土著社区，提出了重大挑战。本研究在10年、30年、50年和100年的时间尺度上探讨了圣佩德罗德阿塔卡马可持续发展的参与性情景。该研究采用混合方法（quan→QUAL），让主要利益攸关方参与进来，重点关注当地的李干安泰土著居民，以确定影响该地区未来的关键压力和事件。研究结果揭示了人们对水资源短缺、气候变化、锂矿开采的扩大、旅游业的增长以及土著文化身份的丧失等问题的深切关注。出现了两种主要情景：“社会水管理”和“社会不信任”。在这两种情况下，未来的发展都可能导致历史和文化根源的严重丧失以及生物多样性的恶化。水资源短缺已被确定为催化潜在事件的关键因素，如移民、人口减少、农业衰退和新的水管理举措的出现。本研究提出了可持续发展的六大战略轴：社区团结、多元视角旅游规划、地域管理、建立信任、加强领导和转变冲突。成功的实施需要与更高层次的治理进行协调，并努力将传统和土著知识纳入公共政策和管理战略。这项开创性的研究为社区对气候脆弱性的看法和阿塔卡马沙漠地区可持续发展的途径提供了重要的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Healthy harvests: Reducing plastic use and associated water contaminants in U.S. greenhouses and nurseries 健康收成：减少美国温室和苗圃中塑料的使用和相关的水污染物

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101369

Masoud Yazdanpanah , Alexa Lamm , James S. Owen , James E. Altland , Sarah A. White

引用次数: 0

Sustainable Development Goals at regional level: Case study for enhancing performance assessment 区域一级的可持续发展目标：加强绩效评估的案例研究

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101355

María Grijelmo , MªBegoña Etxebarria , Astrid Barona , Naiara Rojo , Francisco Sánchez-Fuente

While the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a global framework for progress, assessing the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at regional level remains a challenge. Methodological difficulties arise in indicator selection, data processing, and result interpretation, which must account for each region's unique social, economic, and political context. In this study, the United Nations' (UN) Sustainable Development Goals Report methodology is tested and adapted for regional application to enhance its suitability and comparability. The Basque Country, a region in northern Spain, serves as case study, where the performance of all SDGs and the overall SDG Index are calculated based on a non-compensatory approach. In the case study, the region reached an overall SDG Index of 40.69 %. Performance across the individual SDGs varied considerably, ranging from 0 % for SDG14 (Live below water) to 81.89 % for SDG12 (Responsible consumption and production). Given the level of industrial development in the Basque Country, it is also worth noting that SDG 9 (Industry, innovation, and infrastructure) performed relatively well, achieving a score of 76.44 %. The non-compensatory approach used in this study not only provides a robust basis for evaluating SDG progress at the regional level but also serves as a proposal for inter-territorial comparisons, with potential implications for national assessments.

虽然《2030年可持续发展议程》为进展提供了一个全球框架，但在区域层面评估17项可持续发展目标的实现情况仍然是一项挑战。方法上的困难出现在指标选择、数据处理和结果解释方面，这必须考虑到每个地区独特的社会、经济和政治背景。在本研究中，联合国（UN）可持续发展目标报告的方法进行了测试和适应区域应用，以提高其适用性和可比性。西班牙北部的巴斯克地区作为案例研究，所有可持续发展目标的绩效和整体可持续发展目标指数都是基于非补偿性方法计算的。在案例研究中，该地区实现了40.69%的总体可持续发展目标指数。各个可持续发展目标的表现差异很大，从可持续发展目标14（水下生活）的0%到可持续发展目标12（负责任的消费和生产）的81.89%不等。考虑到巴斯克地区的工业发展水平，同样值得注意的是，可持续发展目标9（工业、创新和基础设施）表现相对较好，得分为76.44%。本研究中使用的非补偿性方法不仅为评估区域层面的可持续发展目标进展提供了坚实的基础，而且还可以作为区域间比较的建议，对国家评估具有潜在影响。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the potential impacts of photovoltaic arrays on ecosystem conditions in arid and semi – arid regions 探讨光伏阵列对干旱和半干旱地区生态系统条件的潜在影响

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101372

Yongzhen Luo, Hongguang Cheng, Jing Wang, Nuo Cheng

Centralized photovoltaic (PV) power generation in arid and semi – arid regions, as a crucial clean energy technology, has been extensively constructed and developed in many countries. Large-scale PV power stations in arid and semi - arid areas can improve ecosystem conditions through shading and moisture retention, but demonstrate limited restoration efficacy in hyper-arid zones, with potential adverse impacts emerging. An investigation of the impacts of PV deployment on arid and semi – arid ecosystems is crucial from the comprehensive perspectives of humidity, temperature, and dryness. This study focuses on PV power stations in China's Hexi Corridor New Energy Base, employing remote sensing data inversion and computation to analyze ecosystem changes before and after PV construction. The research aims to clarify the differential contributions and mechanisms between PV infrastructure development and climatic factors on ecosystem variations within PV deployment areas. Key findings reveal: No unified ecological improvement was observed post - PV construction across the study area, with ecosystem degradation detected in PV deployment zones of three major regions. Persistent thermal anomalies occurred, as temperatures within all PV station areas consistently exceeded those of adjacent non - PV zones. The single influence intensity of PV location factors on Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) changes is measured as 0.675. In arid and semi-arid regions, the highest combined impact power (0.816) on RSEI was attributed to the expansion of PV and geographical location. The ecological restoration effects of PV power station construction in arid and semi – arid regions are not universally observed, and heat island effects may be induced within deployment zones during the summer period.

干旱半干旱区集中式光伏发电作为一项重要的清洁能源技术，在许多国家得到了广泛的建设和发展。干旱半干旱区大型光伏电站可以通过遮阳和保湿改善生态系统条件，但在超干旱区恢复效果有限，潜在的不利影响正在显现。从湿度、温度和干燥度的综合角度研究光伏发电对干旱和半干旱生态系统的影响至关重要。本研究以中国河西走廊新能源基地光伏电站为研究对象，采用遥感数据反演和计算方法，分析光伏电站建设前后生态系统的变化。该研究旨在阐明光伏基础设施发展和气候因素对光伏部署区内生态系统变化的差异贡献和机制。研究结果表明：研究区光伏建设后生态系统没有得到统一的改善，三个主要区域的光伏部署区都出现了生态系统退化。持续的热异常发生，因为所有光伏电站区域内的温度始终高于邻近的非光伏区域。光伏区位因子对遥感生态指数（RSEI）变化的单一影响强度为0.675。在干旱半干旱区，PV扩展和地理位置对RSEI的综合影响最大（0.816）；干旱半干旱区光伏电站建设的生态修复效果并不普遍，夏季部署区内可能会产生热岛效应。

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引用次数: 0

Greenhouse gas emission from Thailand's AFOLU sector in upper southern: current trends and future projections 泰国南部上部AFOLU部门的温室气体排放：当前趋势和未来预测

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101320

Apirak Bumyut , Sawanya Laohaprapanon , Ronald W.A. Hutjes , Warit Jawjit , Onanong Phewnil , Laksanara Khwanchum

This study aims to investigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in Thailand's upper southern region, and to project future emissions through 2030 under two scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU) and the National Target (NT) scenario. The study area includes five provinces—Ranong, Chumphon, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, and Trang—characterized by abundant natural resources, including carbon-sequestering ecosystems such as mangrove forests. However, ongoing deforestation and agricultural expansion in these provinces have become major sources of GHG emissions, particularly methane (CH₄) from rice cultivation and livestock, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) from forest conversion.

The study employs IPCC guidelines to assess current emissions and project future emissions up to 2030. Results indicate that the current GHG emissions from AFOLU are primarily from livestock (938,149 tons CO₂-eq) and rice cultivation (261,745 tons CO₂-eq). Under the BAU scenario, these emissions are projected to increase to 1.59 million tons CO₂-eq and 292,793 tons CO₂-eq, respectively. Net methane emissions are expected to rise, as reductions in rice emissions are outweighed by increases from livestock. Meanwhile, CO₂ emissions from deforestation are also projected to grow significantly.

Implementation of mitigation measures under the NT scenario is projected to reduce emissions from livestock and rice cultivation by approximately 5 % and 17 %, respectively. Furthermore, to achieve the national GHG emission reduction targets, the application of regional and provincial-specific mitigation strategies—such as alternate wetting and drying techniques in rice paddies, improved manure management, and sustainable land-use practices—must align with both the local context and consistent national policies.

本研究旨在调查泰国南部北部地区农业、林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU）部门的温室气体（GHG）排放情况，并在两种情景下预测到2030年的未来排放情况：照常经营（BAU）和国家目标（NT）情景。研究区域包括拉廊、春蓬、那空西塔玛拉、法塔隆和庄等5个省，它们拥有丰富的自然资源，包括红树林等碳汇生态系统。然而，这些省份持续的森林砍伐和农业扩张已成为温室气体排放的主要来源，特别是水稻种植和牲畜产生的甲烷（CH4）和森林转化产生的二氧化碳（CO2）。该研究采用了IPCC的指导方针来评估目前的排放量，并预测到2030年的未来排放量。结果表明，目前AFOLU的温室气体排放主要来自畜牧业（938,149吨CO2-eq）和水稻种植（261,745吨CO2-eq）。在BAU情景下，这些排放量预计将分别增加到159万吨二氧化碳当量和292,793吨二氧化碳当量。预计甲烷净排放量将上升，因为稻米排放量的减少被牲畜排放量的增加所抵消。与此同时，预计森林砍伐造成的二氧化碳排放量也将大幅增长。在北部地区情景下实施缓解措施，预计将使牲畜和水稻种植的排放量分别减少约5%和17%。此外，为了实现国家温室气体减排目标，区域和省份特定缓解战略的应用——如稻田交替干湿技术、改进粪肥管理和可持续土地利用实践——必须与当地情况和一致的国家政策相一致。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding food waste generation in school canteens 了解学校食堂产生的食物浪费

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101386

Christopher Malefors , Theresa Gerstbrein , Claudia von Brömssen , Niina Sundin , Ylva Ran , Fiona Lambe , Mattias Eriksson

Reducing food waste across food supply chains is crucial for achieving global environmental goals, but the impact of organisational strategy and social factors on food waste in public catering is not well understood. This study aimed to quantify and explain the drivers of food waste in Swedish school canteens by analysing data at three levels: the organisational, the school, and the individual level. The analysis combined national survey data (n = 111 municipalities), school-level quantification data (n = 693 schools), and 1722 individual on-site observations. The results show that municipalities with a higher share of guests eating in production kitchens had lower food waste (Spearman's ρ = −0.23) while having an explicit food waste reduction goal did not affect food waste levels (45 vs 47 g per guest). At the school level, student age was moderately correlated with plate waste (Kendall's τ = 0.34), with older students wasting about twice as much food as younger ones (36 vs 18 g per guest). At the individual level, extroverted students and those in group settings generated more waste (on average 67 g per waster).The findings point to complementary roles of organisational factors and guest behaviour in shaping food waste generation, highlighting the potential of interventions that address both.

减少食品供应链中的食物浪费对于实现全球环境目标至关重要，但组织战略和社会因素对公共餐饮食物浪费的影响尚未得到很好的理解。本研究旨在通过分析三个层面的数据来量化和解释瑞典学校食堂食物浪费的驱动因素：组织、学校和个人层面。该分析结合了全国调查数据（n = 111个直辖市）、校级量化数据（n = 693所学校）和1722个个人现场观察。结果表明，在生产厨房用餐的客人比例较高的城市，食物浪费较少（斯皮尔曼ρ = - 0.23），而明确的减少食物浪费目标并不影响食物浪费水平（每位客人45克对47克）。在学校层面，学生的年龄与盘子浪费适度相关（肯德尔τ = 0.34），年龄较大的学生浪费的食物大约是年龄较小的学生的两倍（每位客人36克对18克）。在个人层面上，外向的学生和群体环境中的学生产生更多的废物（平均每个废物67克）。研究结果指出，组织因素和客人行为在形成食物浪费方面发挥着互补作用，并强调了解决这两个问题的干预措施的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Public perception of climate change impacts and sectoral adaptation in Romania 罗马尼亚公众对气候变化影响和部门适应的看法

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101346

Monica Dumitraşcu , Irena Roznoviețchi , Mihaela Sima , Ines Grigorescu , Bianca Mitrică , Dana Micu , Vlăduț Fălcescu , Ana Bulai , Sorin Cheval

Public perception of climate change plays a crucial role in adaptation efforts, shaping both individual actions towards environmentally responsible behavior and support for public policies. This study examines public attitudes on climate change across key sectors in Romanian, in the post-COVID-19 pandemic context to inform adaptation measures. As part of the revision of the National Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, a nationwide survey was conducted to assess public perceptions of climate change and related adaptation measures. Using a structured questionnaire, responses were analysed and clustered for priority sectors, considered most vulnerable to the climate change impacts (e.g., Agriculture, Energy, Transport, Forestry, Tourism). Findings highlighted agriculture, water resources, and public health as the most vulnerable, and pointed out to targeted measures such as energy efficiency, sustainable resource management, healthcare improvements and infrastructure modernization. The results also revealed socio-demographic patterns, such as lower awareness among younger, middle to lower income groups and a stronger connection between parental status and environmentally responsible behaviours.

公众对气候变化的认知在适应工作中起着至关重要的作用，既影响个人对环境负责的行为的行动，也影响对公共政策的支持。本研究调查了在2019冠状病毒病大流行后的背景下，罗马尼亚各关键部门对气候变化的公众态度，为适应措施提供信息。作为《国家适应气候变化战略》修订工作的一部分，在全国范围内开展了一项调查，评估公众对气候变化和相关适应措施的看法。通过使用结构化问卷，对反馈进行了分析，并将其聚类为被认为最容易受到气候变化影响的优先部门（如农业、能源、交通、林业、旅游业）。调查结果强调，农业、水资源和公共卫生是最脆弱的，并指出应采取有针对性的措施，如提高能源效率、可持续资源管理、改善医疗保健和基础设施现代化。研究结果还揭示了社会人口统计模式，比如年轻人、中低收入群体的环保意识较低，父母身份与环境责任行为之间的联系更强。

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引用次数: 0

Heat-induced labour capacity loss- future climate change scenario prediction 热致劳动能力丧失——未来气候变化情景预测

IF 5.3 2区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101304

Vidhya Venugopal, Rekha Shanmugam, PK Latha

In developing countries that rely heavily on manual labour, heat stress is expected to worsen, affecting health and productivity. No study has been conducted to date on predicting seasonal heat stress and Labour Capacity Loss (LCL) in India; therefore, the present study aims to examine the impact of climatic change scenarios on heat-induced LCL among informal outdoor workers in Southern India. We studied cross-sectional changes in Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and surveyed 1247 workers in five informal outdoor sectors in Tamil Nadu (TN). We use Dunne's empirical approach to measure regional LCL variations throughout three periods till 2099. The results are described using descriptive and multivariate analysis. The results showed that the seasonal WBGTs increase by 1.6 ± 0.2 °C and 2.3 ± 0.2 °C (summer) and 0.7 ± 0.4 °C and 1.4 ± 0.4 °C (winter) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Perception data collected from this region's workers already shows significantly higher odds of productivity loss with WBGT exposures (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.6; 95 % CI: 1.2–2.1), hot season (AOR: 15.3; 95 % CI: 11.4–20.5), and heavy workload (AOR: 3.4; 95 % CI: 2.4–4.7). While summer WBGTs exceed 30 °C in all three time periods under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, winter WBGTs surpass safe working conditions in many districts of TN in the third period under RCP8.5. By 2099, under RCP6.0, high/moderate workload summer LCL ranged from 4.5 to 13.3 %, and 1.0–10.1 % under RCP8.5. Our findings show drastic changes in future WBGT and LCL, resulting in significant individual and regional economic losses. To safeguard millions of impoverished informal workers in tropical and subtropical countries, climate mitigation, adaptation, and intervention initiatives are urgently needed.

在严重依赖体力劳动的发展中国家，预计热应激将恶化，影响健康和生产力。迄今为止，在印度还没有进行预测季节性热应激和劳动能力损失（LCL）的研究；因此，本研究旨在研究气候变化情景对印度南部非正式户外工人热致LCL的影响。我们研究了湿球温度（WBGT）的横截面变化，并调查了泰米尔纳德邦（TN）五个非正式户外部门的1247名工人。我们使用Dunne的实证方法来测量直到2099年的三个时期的区域LCL变化。使用描述性和多变量分析来描述结果。结果表明：在代表性浓度路径（RCP） 6.0和8.5下，季节WBGTs分别增加1.6±0.2°C和2.3±0.2°C（夏季）和0.7±0.4°C和1.4±0.4°C（冬季）。从该地区工人收集的感知数据已经显示，WBGT暴露导致生产力损失的几率明显更高(调整优势比（AOR）： 1.6；95% CI: 1.2-2.1)，炎热季节(AOR: 15.3；95% CI: 11.4-20.5)和繁重的工作负荷(AOR: 3.4；95% ci: 2.4-4.7)。在RCP6.0和RCP8.5条件下，夏季wbgt在3个时段均超过30°C，而在RCP8.5条件下，冬季wbgt在3个时段均超过安全工作条件。到2099年，在RCP6.0下，高/中等工作量夏季LCL为4.5% - 13.3%，在RCP8.5下为1.0 - 10.1%。我们的研究结果表明，未来WBGT和LCL的剧烈变化将导致重大的个人和区域经济损失。为了保护热带和亚热带国家数百万贫困的非正规工人，迫切需要采取减缓、适应和干预措施。

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