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Corrigendum to “Beyond Box-Cox: A diffusion-inspired functional framework for nonlinear demand and discrete choice modeling” [Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Volume 192 (2026) 103380 pp. 1-24] “超越Box-Cox:非线性需求和离散选择建模的扩散启发功能框架”的勘误表[运输研究B部分:方法论,卷192(2026)103380页1-24]
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103385
Jeppe Rich
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引用次数: 0
CV-MP: Max-pressure control in heterogeneously distributed and partially connected vehicle environments CV-MP:非均匀分布和部分连接车辆环境中的最大压力控制
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103387
Chaopeng Tan , Dingshan Sun , Hao Liu , Marco Rinaldi , Hans van Lint
Max-pressure (MP) control has emerged as a prominent real-time network traffic signal control strategy due to its simplicity, decentralized structure, and theoretical guarantees of network queue stability. Meanwhile, advances in connected vehicle (CV) technology have sparked extensive research into CV-based traffic signal control. Despite these developments, few studies have investigated MP control in heterogeneously distributed and partially CV environments while ensuring network queue stability. To address these research gaps, we propose a CV-based MP control (CV-MP) method that leverages real-time CV travel time information to compute the pressure, thereby incorporating both the spatial distribution and temporal delays of vehicles, unlike existing approaches that utilized only spatial distribution or temporal delays. In particular, we establish sufficient conditions for road network queue stability that are compatible with most existing MP control methods. Moreover, we pioneered the proof of network queue stability even if the vehicles are only partially connected and heterogeneously distributed, and gave a necessary condition of CV observation for maintaining the stability. Evaluation results on an Amsterdam corridor show that CV-MP significantly reduces vehicle delays compared to both actuated control and conventional MP control across various CV penetration rates. Moreover, in scenarios with dynamic traffic demand, CV-MP achieves lower spillover peaks even with low and heterogeneous CV penetration rates, further highlighting its effectiveness and robustness.
最大压力(MP)控制以其简单、分散的结构和理论上保证网络队列稳定性的优点,成为一种重要的实时网络交通信号控制策略。与此同时,车联网技术的进步引发了对基于车联网的交通信号控制的广泛研究。尽管取得了这些进展,但很少有研究在保证网络队列稳定性的同时,对异构分布和部分CV环境中的MP控制进行研究。为了解决这些研究空白,我们提出了一种基于CV的MP控制(CV-MP)方法,该方法利用实时CV行驶时间信息来计算压力,从而结合车辆的空间分布和时间延迟,而不是仅利用空间分布或时间延迟的现有方法。特别是,我们建立了与大多数现有MP控制方法兼容的路网队列稳定的充分条件。此外,我们还首次证明了车辆仅部分连接和异构分布情况下的网络队列稳定性,并给出了保持稳定性的CV观察的必要条件。阿姆斯特丹走廊的评估结果表明,在不同的CV渗透率下,与驱动控制和传统MP控制相比,CV-MP显著减少了车辆延误。此外,在流量需求动态的场景下,CV- mp即使在低渗透率和异质性渗透率的情况下也能达到较低的溢出峰值,进一步凸显了其有效性和鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Is fare free transit just? quantifying the impact of moral principles on transit design and finance 免费公交公正吗?量化道德原则对交通设计和财政的影响
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103383
Tianxing Dai , Hongyu Zheng , Yu (Marco) Nie
Using a stylized transit design model, this study examines fare-free transit (FFT) through the lens of distributive justice. We pose a direct question: Is FFT just according to John Rawls’s theory of justice? Specifically, is it compatible with the resource allocation that maximizes the utility of the most disadvantaged travelers? We compare this egalitarian principle with a utilitarian one, which asserts that an allocation is optimal when it maximizes the total utility of all travelers. FFT is of course not free. In the absence of farebox revenue, a transit system must either cut services or turn to alternative sources, such as local dedicated taxes and fees levied on drivers. Thus, our model incorporates both finance and operational decisions, and captures the interaction between traffic congestion and travelers’ income level and mode choice. Using a case study built with empirical data in Chicago, we show that the fare is not the first choice under either moral principle. For the egalitarian, the most desirable funding source is the driver fee, whereas taxation is preferred by the utilitarian. It follows that FFT can be both just and utility-maximizing, if one is allowed to raise taxes and charge drivers with impunity. However, as the flexibility in finance diminishes, so does the appeal of FFT. In such cases, the proposed model serves as a decision-support tool for finding sensible compromises that address the varied interests and ideologies at play. For example, it reveals that at the current transit-dedicated sales tax rate of about 1 % in Chicago, the Rawlsian egalitarian can justify FFT only if drivers pay about $1,800/year to fund transit, which amounts to about 18 % of an average U.S. household’s driving cost.
本研究使用一个程式化的交通设计模型,从分配正义的角度来考察免票价交通(FFT)。我们提出了一个直接的问题:FFT只是根据约翰·罗尔斯的正义理论吗?具体来说,它是否符合使最弱势旅行者的效用最大化的资源分配?我们将这种平等主义原则与功利主义原则进行比较,功利主义原则认为,当所有出行者的总效用最大化时,分配是最优的。FFT当然不是免费的。在没有车费箱收入的情况下,交通系统必须要么削减服务,要么转向其他来源,比如当地专门的税收和对司机征收的费用。因此,我们的模型结合了财务和运营决策,并捕捉了交通拥堵与旅行者收入水平和模式选择之间的相互作用。利用芝加哥的经验数据建立的案例研究,我们表明,在任何一个道德原则下,票价都不是第一选择。对于平等主义者来说,最理想的资金来源是司机费,而功利主义者则更喜欢税收。由此可见,如果允许提高税收并不受惩罚地向司机收费,FFT既可以是公正的,也可以是效用最大化的。然而,随着金融灵活性的减弱,FFT的吸引力也在减弱。在这种情况下,所提出的模型可以作为一种决策支持工具,用于找到解决各种利益和意识形态的合理妥协。例如,它揭示了芝加哥目前的交通专用销售税税率约为1%,罗尔斯平均主义只有在司机每年支付约1,800美元用于交通的情况下才能证明FFT是合理的,这相当于美国家庭平均驾驶成本的18%左右。
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引用次数: 0
Parking-and-Charging-as-a-Service: Online admission and allocation policies for an integrated parking and charging reservation system 停车收费即服务:综合停车收费预约系统的在线准入和分配政策
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103375
Jie Lin , Fangni Zhang , Yafeng Yin
With a substantial increase in public charging facilities globally, the world has witnessed a significant surge in support for electric vehicles (EVs), making them more accessible and sustainable. However, EV drivers still struggle to find available charging spaces, which are often occupied by non-charging vehicles. While prohibiting parking in charging spaces can mitigate this issue, it can lead to underutilization of charging spaces when charging demand is low but parking demand is high. Existing studies often treat parking and charging management as separate issues, overlooking the fact that most charging spaces are located in parking facilities and jointly operated with parking spaces to serve both parking and charging needs. In this context, coordinated management of parking and charging spaces is essential for improving operational efficiency. This paper proposes an integrated Parking-and-Charging-as-a-Service (PCaaS) reservation system that jointly manages parking and charging demand through admission and allocation controls. Specifically, users submit parking and charging requests in advance, and the system dynamically determines whether to accept each request and, if accepted, allocates a parking or charging space accordingly. We model this sequential decision-making problem as a Markov decision process. Since deriving the optimal policy is computationally intractable, we introduce a bid price control policy to guide request admission and space allocation. Two decomposition methods are developed to compute bid prices efficiently. Using real-world parking facility data, we evaluate the performance of the proposed policies across varying problem scales, levels of dynamism, demand scenarios, and parking facility configurations. The results demonstrate that the proposed policies substantially enhance overall revenue and capacity utilization compared to current practices. The insights gained provide guidance for the planning and operation of public parking facilities.
随着全球公共充电设施的大幅增加,全球对电动汽车(ev)的支持大幅增加,使它们更容易获得和可持续发展。然而,电动汽车司机仍然很难找到可用的充电空间,这些空间往往被非充电车辆占据。虽然禁止在充电空间停车可以缓解这一问题,但在充电需求低而停车需求高的情况下,它可能导致充电空间的利用不足。现有的研究往往将停车和充电管理视为两个独立的问题,忽视了大多数充电空间位于停车设施内,与停车位共同运营,同时满足停车和充电的需求。在这种情况下,停车和充电空间的协调管理对于提高运营效率至关重要。本文提出了一种集成的停车收费即服务(PCaaS)预约系统,该系统通过准入和分配控制来共同管理停车和收费需求。具体而言,用户提前提交停车和收费请求,系统动态决定是否接受每个请求,如果接受,则相应地分配停车或收费空间。我们将这个顺序决策问题建模为一个马尔可夫决策过程。由于求出最优策略在计算上难以解决,我们引入了投标价格控制策略来指导请求入场和空间分配。提出了两种有效计算投标价格的分解方法。利用现实世界的停车设施数据,我们在不同的问题规模、动态水平、需求情景和停车设施配置中评估了拟议政策的性能。结果表明,与目前的做法相比,拟议的政策大大提高了总收入和产能利用率。所获得的见解为公共停车设施的规划和运营提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Locating and pricing park-and-ride service in the era of autonomous vehicles 自动驾驶汽车时代的停车换乘服务定位和定价
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103376
Qingyun Tian , Yun Hui Lin , Kaidi Yang , David Z.W. Wang
This paper studies the optimal location and pricing scheme of Park-and-Ride (P&R) services specifically designed for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs). The unique features of self-cruising and autonomous parking allow AV users to drive directly to the transit stations to access transit service while letting AVs self-cruise and park at P&R stations. This will cause AV users to make different choices regarding P&R stations compared to those driving traditional human-driven vehicles (HVs). Consequently, the layout of P&R stations and service charges designed for AVs may deviate significantly from the existing P&R service design for HVs. Standing from the perspective of P&R service operators, we formulate a bilevel model that captures the intricate interplay between service design and travelers’ choices, which aims to maximize the derived profit for operating P&R services by optimizing the location and pricing scheme of P&R stations. To solve the proposed bilevel programming effectively, we present two exact solution approaches, i.e., the mixed-integer linear programming reformulation approach and value-function-based exact solution approach. Numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the proposed model and solution methods. Based on the results, we find that the P&R service designs for HVs and AVs are considerably different, and the P&R service will be more advantageous in the era of AVs. Through sensitivity analysis, we analyze the impacts of multiple parameters on the model solutions. The results of this study will provide guidance and insights for the deployment of P&R service in the future mobility system with AVs.
本文研究了自动驾驶汽车(AVs)停车换乘服务的最优位置和定价方案。自动巡航和自动停车的独特功能允许自动驾驶汽车用户直接驾驶到中转站使用交通服务,同时让自动驾驶汽车自行巡航和停车在P&;R站。这将导致自动驾驶汽车用户对P&;R站做出不同的选择,而不是驾驶传统的人力驾驶汽车(HVs)。因此,为自动驾驶汽车设计的P&;R站的布局和服务费可能会与现有的为HVs设计的P&;R服务有很大的偏差。本文从P&;R服务运营商的角度出发,建立了一个双层模型,该模型捕捉了服务设计与旅客选择之间错综复杂的相互作用,旨在通过优化P&;R站点的位置和定价方案,实现P&;R服务运营的利润最大化。为了有效地解决所提出的双层规划问题,我们提出了两种精确解方法,即混合整数线性规划重公式化方法和基于值函数的精确解方法。通过数值实验对所提出的模型和求解方法进行了验证。基于研究结果,我们发现HVs和AVs的P&;R服务设计存在较大差异,并且在AVs时代P&;R服务将更具优势。通过灵敏度分析,分析了多个参数对模型解的影响。本研究结果将为未来自动驾驶汽车出行系统中P&;R服务的部署提供指导和见解。
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引用次数: 0
A multiplicative regret-based stochastic user equilibrium model 基于乘法遗憾的随机用户均衡模型
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103362
Yu Gu , Heqing Tan , Anthony Chen , Sunghoon Jang
Random regret minimization is an alternative decision rule to the overwhelmingly used random utility maximization in travel choice and network equilibrium models. Existing random regret models (RRMs) mainly adopt an additive error structure, which is inadequate to capture travelers’ magnitude-dependent perceptions of travel alternatives and is often difficult to reflect the impact of transportation network scales. This study proposes a novel multiplicative random regret model (MRRM) to address these issues by taking advantage of the multiplicative error structure. Compared with the traditional additive RRMs, the MRRM addresses the scale-invariance issue and enables alternative-specific travel perceptions while retaining the essential properties of RRMs. Specific distributional assumptions are made for the smooth approximation of the regret function and random perception of alternative-level regret, which guarantees the analytical expression of choice probability that facilitates the application in traffic assignment problems. The MRRM is further integrated into the stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) assignment to endogenously model the congestion effect on regret-based route choice behaviors. The MRRM-SUE model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a path-based algorithm. Numerical experiments are conducted on different networks to illustrate the features of the MRRM-SUE model and verify its applicability in real-world cases.
在出行选择和网络均衡模型中,随机后悔最小化是一种替代绝大多数使用的随机效用最大化的决策规则。现有的随机后悔模型主要采用加性误差结构,不能很好地反映出行者对出行选择的依赖程度感知,也难以反映交通网络规模的影响。本文提出了一种新的乘法随机后悔模型(MRRM),利用乘法误差结构来解决这些问题。与传统的可加性rrm相比,MRRM解决了尺度不变性问题,并在保留rrm基本特性的同时实现了替代特定的旅行感知。针对后悔函数的光滑逼近和备选级后悔的随机感知,提出了具体的分布假设,保证了选择概率的解析表达式,便于在交通分配问题中的应用。将MRRM与随机用户均衡(SUE)分配相结合,内生地模拟了基于后悔的路径选择行为的拥塞效应。MRRM-SUE模型被表述为一个变分不等式问题,并通过基于路径的算法求解。在不同的网络上进行了数值实验,以说明MRRM-SUE模型的特点,并验证其在实际案例中的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Equitable transportation network design for signal-free smart intersections 无信号智能交叉口的公平交通网络设计
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103371
Dan Zhu , Tingting Xie , Yang Liu , Napat Rujeerapaiboon
<div><div>Intersections often become bottlenecks, leading to delays due to stop-and-go operations for navigating conflicting traffic movements. Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are expected to alleviate this issue by coordinating their movement to navigate intersections smoothly without traffic signals. However, it may take time for human-driven vehicles (HVs) to be replaced by CAVs. During this transition period, we aim to develop a hybrid intersection design (HID) that strategically integrates signal-free smart intersections with traditional signal-based ones by optimizing the locations of smart intersections and setting appropriate signal timings for conventional intersections. This HID approach may result in distributional welfare effects across different road users, with HV users potentially facing disadvantages because they have no access to smart intersections and their connecting links. To facilitate equitable HIDs, we develop four bi-level programming models that address the inequity issue by incorporating considerations of ethical principles, including utilitarian, sufficient, difference, and maximax principles. For each bi-level program, the transportation planner determines HID decisions, incorporating equity into the objectives and/or constraints as guided by the underlying ethical principle, at the upper level, whereas travelers make their user optimal routing choices with the given equitable HID at the lower level. We formulate the lower-level problem as signal-free smart intersections embedded network equilibrium with mixed traffic and derive its equivalent variational inequality (VI) problem, and prove the existence of VI solutions. Besides, we prove that no traveler will be worse off for HID under the difference principle compared to the signal-based control, and establish the relationship of total travel times for HIDs under four ethical principles. To solve these bi-level programs, we first reformulate them into single-level mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints (MPECs). These MPECs are approximated by the corresponding mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs), which enables existing algorithms for their approximated global optimum. We further generalize a non-uniform breakpoint selection technique with a proven minimal number of breakpoints to significantly reduce the problem size without compromising its computation accuracy. Besides, we develop a domain resizing technique to further reduce the problem size and enhance computational efficiency. Furthermore, since solving MILPs provides a lower bound for the original MPECs, we propose a modified augmented Lagrangian multiplier (MALM) approach to evaluate MILPs’ solution quality, which generates feasible solutions that serve as upper bounds for the MPECs. The consistently small gap ratios (<em>i.e.,</em> 1 %) across all tested cases strongly validate that the developed MILPs are highly effective in finding solutions close to the global optimum for the MPECs.
十字路口经常成为交通瓶颈,由于在相互冲突的车流中进行走走停停的操作,导致交通延误。联网和自动驾驶汽车(cav)有望通过协调运动,在没有交通信号的情况下顺利通过十字路口,从而缓解这一问题。然而,无人驾驶汽车(HVs)被自动驾驶汽车(cav)取代可能需要一段时间。在这一过渡时期,我们的目标是通过优化智能交叉口的位置和为传统交叉口设置适当的信号配时,开发一种混合交叉口设计(HID),将无信号智能交叉口与传统基于信号的交叉口战略性地集成在一起。这种HID方法可能会导致不同道路使用者之间的分配福利效应,而HV使用者可能面临不利,因为他们无法使用智能十字路口及其连接链路。为了促进公平的高发展水平,我们开发了四个双层规划模型,通过纳入道德原则的考虑来解决不公平问题,包括功利原则、充分原则、差异原则和最大化原则。对于每一个双层规划,在上层,交通规划者根据潜在的道德原则将公平性纳入目标和/或约束条件中,从而决定HID决策,而在下层,出行者则根据给定的公平的HID为用户做出最优的路线选择。将底层问题表述为具有混合交通的无信号智能交叉口嵌入式网络均衡问题,推导出其等效变分不等式问题,并证明了其解的存在性。此外,我们还证明了在差分原则下的行人不会比基于信号的控制更差,并建立了在四种伦理原则下的行人总旅行时间关系。为了解决这些双层规划,我们首先将它们重新表述为具有平衡约束的单层数学规划(mpec)。这些mpec是由相应的混合整数线性规划(milp)逼近的,这使得现有算法能够逼近它们的全局最优。我们进一步推广了一种非均匀断点选择技术,该技术具有经过验证的最小断点数量,可以在不影响计算精度的情况下显着减小问题的大小。此外,我们还开发了一种域大小调整技术,以进一步减小问题的大小,提高计算效率。此外,由于求解milp提供了原始mpec的下界,我们提出了一种改进的增广拉格朗日乘子(MALM)方法来评估milp的解质量,该方法生成可行解作为mpec的上界。在所有测试案例中,始终如一的小间隙比(即1%)有力地验证了开发的milp在寻找接近mpec全局最优解决方案方面是非常有效的。当MALM方法不能满足伦理约束时,我们还开发了两个针对充分原则和极大原则的可行性问题,以恢复伦理上可接受的解决方案。我们的数值实验表明,当自动驾驶汽车的市场渗透率非常高(即80%)时,在不同的道德原则下,自动驾驶汽车和自动驾驶汽车的路径旅行时间都可以大幅减少。此外,在基于信号的交叉口控制下,无信号智能交叉口优选分配到经历严重信号和/或队列延迟的位置。
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引用次数: 0
Is waiting worth it? the value of delaying time window assignment in vehicle routing problems 等待值得吗?车辆路径问题中延迟时间窗分配的价值
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103381
Sifa Çelik , Albert H. Schrotenboer , Layla Martin , Tom Van Woensel
We explore the critical balance between immediate and delayed communication of time windows to customers in next-day business services, e.g., repairs, high-value deliveries, or installments. Faster communication benefits customers but potentially harms routing quality, including on-time delivery and transport costs. This paper addresses the Dynamic Delayed Time Window Assignment Vehicle Routing Problem (DDTWAVRP), a complex decision-making challenge service providers face. We model the DDTWAVRP as a semi-Markov Decision Process (MDP) with a finite time horizon. We propose two online algorithms as a solution methodology to evaluate the value of delay, namely, the rollout and the multiple scenario approach policy. Rollout policy simulates and approximates the value function to create robust solutions, whereas the multiple scenario approach policy searches for the most popular solution amongst sampled scenarios. We compare the performance of the proposed methodologies with other benchmark policies from the literature. Our numerical study shows an 11.82 % decrease in routing durations if we allow delaying a time window assignment. Compared to only assigning time windows once all demand is known, routing costs only increase marginally. We show that the decision to delay a time window assignment depends on the current state and must be tailored to customers.
我们探索在第二天的商业服务中,如维修、高价值交付或分期付款,与客户的即时和延迟时间窗口之间的关键平衡。更快的通信对客户有利,但可能会损害路由质量,包括准时交付和运输成本。本文研究了服务提供商面临的复杂决策挑战——动态延迟时间窗分配车辆路径问题(DDTWAVRP)。我们将DDTWAVRP建模为有限时间范围的半马尔可夫决策过程(MDP)。我们提出了两种在线算法作为评估延迟价值的解决方法,即rollout和多场景方法策略。Rollout策略模拟和近似值函数以创建健壮的解决方案,而多场景方法策略在抽样场景中搜索最流行的解决方案。我们将提出的方法的性能与文献中的其他基准策略进行比较。我们的数值研究表明,如果我们允许延迟时间窗口分配,路由持续时间减少11.82%。与只在所有需求都已知时才分配时间窗口相比,路由成本只会略微增加。我们表明延迟时间窗口分配的决定取决于当前状态,并且必须针对客户进行调整。
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引用次数: 0
Road price and capacity policies subject to a fiscal constraint in a city 城市财政约束下的道路价格和通行能力政策
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103361
Tatsuhito Kono, Nozomu Takamura
This paper explores the efficient capacity of the bottleneck and road pricing in a city, subject to the fiscal constraint financing the whole urban road network including the bottleneck. To do this, considering that most cities collect their public fund from property tax, we set three regimes: Regime 1, where congestion pricing is imposed with property tax; Regime 2, where the flat per-kilometer charge is imposed with property tax; Regime 3, where floor area ratio (FAR) regulations and flat per-kilometer charge are imposed with property tax. We derive theoretical properties in each regime. First, in Regime 1, even subject to fiscal constraints, the congestion pricing formula is equal to that of Arnott et al. (1990, 1993), but the optimal capacity should be smaller than that in the presence of a lump-sum tax, reflecting the endogenous marginal cost of public funds. As a result, the congestion pricing revenue exceeds the cost of optimizing the bottleneck capacity. In addition, we show that, only in Regime 3, property tax does not generate deadweight losses owing to the imposition of FAR regulation. Finally, setting the regime of property tax only as the base, our quantitative simulations show that Regime 1 has about 90 % of the welfare increase of the first best, Regime 3 has about 50 % of the increase, and Regime 2 has about 15 % of the increase.
本文研究了在财政约束下包括瓶颈在内的整个城市路网的有效通行能力和道路收费问题。为了做到这一点,考虑到大多数城市从财产税中收取公共资金,我们设定了三种制度:制度一,在征收财产税的同时征收拥堵费;制度2,每公里统一收费与财产税一起征收;制度3,建筑面积比率(FAR)规定和每公里单位收费与财产税一起征收。我们推导出每一种状态的理论性质。首先,在制度1中,即使在财政约束下,拥堵定价公式与Arnott et al.(1990,1993)的公式是相等的,但最优容量应该小于一次性征税时的容量,这反映了公共资金的内生边际成本。因此,拥堵收费的收益超过了优化瓶颈容量的成本。此外,我们还表明,只有在制度3中,财产税才不会因为实施FAR监管而产生无谓损失。最后,仅以财产税制度为基础,我们的定量模拟表明,制度1的福利增幅约为前优的90%,制度3的福利增幅约为50%,制度2的福利增幅约为15%。
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic fundamental diagram modeling using asymmetric vine and nested Archimedean copulas 使用不对称藤和嵌套阿基米德copula的随机基本图建模
IF 6.3 1区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2025.103350
Yuming Zhou , Qixiu Cheng , Chi Zhang , Ming Luo , Zhiyuan Liu
Traditional deterministic fundamental diagrams (FDs) often fail to capture the extensive scatter observed in empirical traffic data. Previous stochastic fundamental diagram (SFD) models typically focus only on speed-density (v-k) scatter, neglecting flow-density (q-k) scatter and their interdependence. Since the distribution of traffic density varies across different traffic states, flow distributions are determined by the joint distribution of speed and density, making linear derivation from v-k scatter inadequate. Such limitations can bias capacity estimation and traffic control under extreme conditions. To address this, we introduce a multivariate copula-based approach to extend two-dimensional SFD to three-dimensional SFD, simultaneously modeling the scatter and dependence of speed, density, and flow. Copulas separate marginal distributions from dependence structures, flexibly capturing heterogeneous scatter in empirical FDs. Vine copulas and nested Archimedean copulas are used due to their ability to model multidimensional asymmetry and tail dependence, improving scatter representation accuracy. The proposed framework includes four components: (1) abstraction of stochastic residuals from deterministic v-k and q-k diagrams to form a ternary random variable set; (2) modeling marginal distributions using normal, log-normal, and logistic distributions; (3) modeling dependence structures via nested Archimedean and Vine copulas; and (4) parameter estimation using real-world empirical datasets. Results demonstrate that the framework is applicable to various classical FDs, with the five-parameter logistic v-k model achieving the most accurate v-k reproduction and the S-shaped three-parameter (S3) model performing best for q-k and v-q relationships. The method also shows consistent performance across datasets of different sizes and temporal spans. Compared with existing SFD models, it can better capture v-k variability, particularly under low-density free-flow and high-density congested states. In practice, the proposed method enhances the robustness of traffic control decision-making under extreme conditions by providing probabilistic estimates of key traffic variables, thereby supporting more reliable and resilient traffic management.
传统的确定性基本图(FDs)往往不能捕捉到经验交通数据中观察到的广泛分散。以前的随机基本图(SFD)模型通常只关注速度-密度(v-k)散点,而忽略了流量-密度(q-k)散点及其相互依赖性。由于交通密度的分布在不同的交通状态下是不同的,流量分布是由速度和密度的联合分布决定的,这使得从v-k散射的线性推导不充分。在极端条件下,这种限制会使容量估计和交通控制产生偏差。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了一种基于多元copula的方法,将二维SFD扩展到三维SFD,同时模拟了速度、密度和流量的分散和依赖关系。copula将边际分布从依赖结构中分离出来,灵活地捕获经验fd中的异质散射。Vine copulas和巢式阿基米德copulas的使用是由于它们能够模拟多维不对称和尾部依赖,提高了散点表示的准确性。该框架包括四个部分:(1)从确定性v-k图和q-k图中提取随机残差,形成三元随机变量集;(2)利用正态分布、对数正态分布和logistic分布对边际分布进行建模;(3)通过嵌套的Archimedean和Vine copula建模依赖结构;(4)利用实际经验数据集进行参数估计。结果表明,该框架适用于各种经典fd,其中五参数logistic v-k模型最准确地再现了v-k, s形三参数(S3)模型最适合q-k和v-q关系。该方法在不同大小和时间跨度的数据集上也显示出一致的性能。与现有的SFD模型相比,它可以更好地捕捉v-k的变化,特别是在低密度自由流动和高密度拥塞状态下。在实践中,该方法通过提供关键交通变量的概率估计,增强了极端条件下交通控制决策的鲁棒性,从而支持更可靠和有弹性的交通管理。
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Transportation Research Part B-Methodological
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