Abstract In a recent article on the interpretation of probability in evidence-based medical practice, Jonathan Fuller argues that we should interpret probabilities as credences in individual cases because this avoids some important problems. In this article, I argue that Fuller misidentifies the real issue and so fails to offer a meaningful solution to it. The real problem with making probability judgments in individual cases is deciding which objective considerations ought to constrain our formation of credences. This leads us to the reference class problem, which, as Alan Hajek argues, is a problem for any interpretation of probability.
{"title":"The Reference Class Problem and Probabilities in the Individual Case: A Response to Fuller","authors":"A. Devanesan","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.74","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In a recent article on the interpretation of probability in evidence-based medical practice, Jonathan Fuller argues that we should interpret probabilities as credences in individual cases because this avoids some important problems. In this article, I argue that Fuller misidentifies the real issue and so fails to offer a meaningful solution to it. The real problem with making probability judgments in individual cases is deciding which objective considerations ought to constrain our formation of credences. This leads us to the reference class problem, which, as Alan Hajek argues, is a problem for any interpretation of probability.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"19 1","pages":"1001 - 1009"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91377801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Review of Ronald J. Planer and Kim Sterelny’s From Signal to Symbol – Ronald J. Planer and Kim Sterelny, From Signal to Symbol: The Evolution of Language. Cambridge: The MIT Press (2021), 296 pp., $35.00 (hardcover)","authors":"Travis LaCroix","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.75","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A review of Planer and Sterelny’s (2021) book on language origins, From Signal to Symbol: The Evolution of Language.\u0000 TL;DR — Good book. Read book.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76897444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The COVID-19 global pandemic had a profound effect on scientific practice. During this time, officials crucially relied on the work done by modelers. This raises novel questions for the philosophy of science. Here I investigate the possibility of 'natural models' in predicting the SARS-Cov-2 virus’s trajectory for epidemiological purposes. I argue that to the extent that these can be considered scientific models, they support the possibility of a continuum from scientific models to natural models differing in artifactual commitment. In making my case, I draw from work on both model organisms and natural experiments as well as recent work in epidemiology.
{"title":"Motivating a Scientific Modeling Continuum: The Case of “Natural Models” in the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"R. Nefdt","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.72","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID-19 global pandemic had a profound effect on scientific practice. During this time, officials crucially relied on the work done by modelers. This raises novel questions for the philosophy of science. Here I investigate the possibility of 'natural models' in predicting the SARS-Cov-2 virus’s trajectory for epidemiological purposes. I argue that to the extent that these can be considered scientific models, they support the possibility of a continuum from scientific models to natural models differing in artifactual commitment. In making my case, I draw from work on both model organisms and natural experiments as well as recent work in epidemiology.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"19 1","pages":"880 - 900"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80206901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In discussions of the power of causal explanations, one often finds a commitment to two premises. The first is that, all else being equal, a causal explanation is powerful to the extent that it cites the full causal history of why the effect occurred. The second is that, all else being equal, causal explanations are powerful to the extent that the occurrence of a cause allows us to predict the occurrence of its effect. This article proves a representation theorem showing that there is a unique family of functions measuring a causal explanation’s power that satisfies these two premises.
{"title":"Causal History, Statistical Relevance, and Explanatory Power","authors":"David Kinney","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.71","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In discussions of the power of causal explanations, one often finds a commitment to two premises. The first is that, all else being equal, a causal explanation is powerful to the extent that it cites the full causal history of why the effect occurred. The second is that, all else being equal, causal explanations are powerful to the extent that the occurrence of a cause allows us to predict the occurrence of its effect. This article proves a representation theorem showing that there is a unique family of functions measuring a causal explanation’s power that satisfies these two premises.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76028001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Economists often consult multiple models in order to combat model uncertainty in the face of misspecification. By examining modeling practices at the Bank of England, this paper identifies an important, but underappreciated modeling procedure. Sometimes an idealized model is manipulated to reproduce the results from another distinct auxiliary model, ones which it could not produce on its own. However, this procedure does not involve making the original model “more realistic,” insofar as this means adding in additional causal factors. This suggests that there are ways to make models more representationally adequate that do not involve de-idealization in the straightforward sense.
{"title":"Multi-Model Reasoning in Economics: The Case of COMPASS","authors":"Jennifer S. Jhun","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.69","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Economists often consult multiple models in order to combat model uncertainty in the face of misspecification. By examining modeling practices at the Bank of England, this paper identifies an important, but underappreciated modeling procedure. Sometimes an idealized model is manipulated to reproduce the results from another distinct auxiliary model, ones which it could not produce on its own. However, this procedure does not involve making the original model “more realistic,” insofar as this means adding in additional causal factors. This suggests that there are ways to make models more representationally adequate that do not involve de-idealization in the straightforward sense.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"57 1","pages":"836 - 854"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86815782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Robert W. Batterman, A Middle Way: A Non-Fundamental Approach to Many-Body Physics. New York: Oxford University Press (2021) 174 pp., $74.","authors":"E. Shech","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.70","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83926222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In a recent paper Winsberg (2021) argued in favor of research into geoengineering by relying on Good’s theorem, which states that conducting research maximizes one’s expected utility. However, this result sometimes fails for risk-avoidant agents (Buchak 2010). Since risk avoidance captures some of the ’precautionary’ intuitions that critics of geoengineering share, it is important to see if geoengineering research would maximize one’s utility if risk avoidance is taken into account. I show that under some conditions conducting geoengineering research would not maximize risk-weighted expected utility.
{"title":"On the Utility of Research into Geoengineering Technologies for Risk-avoidant Agents","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.57","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In a recent paper Winsberg (2021) argued in favor of research into geoengineering by relying on Good’s theorem, which states that conducting research maximizes one’s expected utility. However, this result sometimes fails for risk-avoidant agents (Buchak 2010). Since risk avoidance captures some of the ’precautionary’ intuitions that critics of geoengineering share, it is important to see if geoengineering research would maximize one’s utility if risk avoidance is taken into account. I show that under some conditions conducting geoengineering research would not maximize risk-weighted expected utility.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77692578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Review of Nancy Cartwright’s A Philosopher Looks at Science","authors":"D. Hicks","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.63","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"32 1","pages":"756 - 760"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87766820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Review of Jeffrey McDonough’s A Miracle Creed: The Principle of Optimality in Leibniz’s Physics and Philosophy","authors":"Hao Dong","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.67","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"95 1","pages":"1013 - 1016"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75647070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inferences from clinical research results to estimates of therapeutic effectiveness suffer due to various biases. I argue that predictions of medical effectiveness are prone to failure because current medical research overlooks the impacts of a particularly detrimental set of biases: meta-biases. Meta-biases are linked to higher-level characteristics of medical research and their effects are only observed when comparing sets of studies that share certain meta-level properties. I offer a model for correcting research results based on meta-research evidence, the bias dynamics model, which employs regularly updated empirical bias coefficients to attenuate estimates of therapeutic effectiveness.
{"title":"The Bias Dynamics Model: Correcting for Meta-biases in Therapeutic Prediction","authors":"A. Erasmus","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.66","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Inferences from clinical research results to estimates of therapeutic effectiveness suffer due to various biases. I argue that predictions of medical effectiveness are prone to failure because current medical research overlooks the impacts of a particularly detrimental set of biases: meta-biases. Meta-biases are linked to higher-level characteristics of medical research and their effects are only observed when comparing sets of studies that share certain meta-level properties. I offer a model for correcting research results based on meta-research evidence, the bias dynamics model, which employs regularly updated empirical bias coefficients to attenuate estimates of therapeutic effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88489079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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