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Advanced Harmonic Forecasting in Offshore Wind Farms with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generators Using a Hybrid Deep and Machine Learning Architecture 使用混合深度和机器学习架构的永磁同步发电机海上风电场的高级谐波预测
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70135
Alp Karadeniz

Wind energy is crucial for reducing fossil fuel dependence and promoting sustainability. Offshore wind farms (OWFs) benefit from higher, stable wind speeds but pose challenges such as harmonic distortion and voltage fluctuations when integrated into power grids. This study develops an advanced model for accurate harmonic forecasting in OWFs using permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG). Real meteorological data from Zonguldak and Sinop in the Black Sea region of Turkey were used to simulate power output, voltage, and current waveforms. Harmonic components, including total harmonic distortion for voltage (THDV) and current (THDI), were extracted and predicted. Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms were applied, including Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, KNeighbors, LSTM, GRU, and CNN. Additionally, hybrid ML-DL models were explored to enhance forecasting accuracy. A comparative analysis of these models demonstrated their effectiveness in improving harmonic prediction. Results indicate that hybrid models, particularly LSTM+GB and GRU+GB, improve harmonic forecasting accuracy by reducing RMSE by approximately 15% compared to traditional ML methods. This enhancement contributes to better power quality management and grid stability, making offshore wind farms more viable for large-scale renewable energy integration. The findings of this research provide a fundamental basis for future investigations into offshore wind harmonic forecasting.

风能对于减少对化石燃料的依赖和促进可持续发展至关重要。海上风力发电场(owf)受益于更高、稳定的风速,但在并入电网时也面临谐波失真和电压波动等挑战。本文提出了一种基于永磁同步发电机(PMSG)的owf谐波预测模型。利用土耳其黑海地区宗古尔达克和锡诺普的真实气象数据,模拟了功率输出、电压和电流波形。提取并预测了电压总谐波失真(THDV)和电流总谐波失真(THDI)等谐波分量。应用了各种机器学习(ML)和深度学习(DL)算法,包括线性回归、决策树、随机森林、梯度增强、XGBoost、KNeighbors、LSTM、GRU和CNN。此外,还探索了混合ML-DL模型来提高预测精度。通过对这些模型的对比分析,证明了它们在改进谐波预测方面的有效性。结果表明,混合模型,特别是LSTM+GB和GRU+GB,与传统ML方法相比,RMSE降低了约15%,提高了谐波预测精度。这种增强有助于更好的电能质量管理和电网稳定性,使海上风电场更适合大规模可再生能源整合。研究结果为今后海上风电谐波预报的研究提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralized Optimal Scheduling for Coordination of Electricity and Gas Systems Considering Frequency and Virtual Inertia Constraints Under Uncertainty 不确定条件下考虑频率和虚惯性约束的电、气系统协调分散最优调度
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70134
Alireza Ghadiri Jafarbiglou, Navid Taghizadegan Kalantari, Sajad Najafi Ravadanegh, Javad Salehi

The transition from traditional bulk generation to renewable energy is reshaping power systems, introducing security challenges due to decreased system inertia. Natural gas (NG)-fired units, known for their quick response, are often scheduled for operational flexibility, increasing interdependency between electrical and NG networks. However, the decentralized management of these networks by separate operators complicates coordinated system management. This study presents an optimization model that co-optimizes unit commitment (UC) and virtual inertia (VI) from wind farms (WF) while addressing frequency constraints (FC) and NG network limitations. The model's effectiveness is validated through two case studies: a smaller network with seven gas nodes and an IEEE 5-bus system, and a larger system with 20 gas nodes and an IEEE 118-bus system. The results show that incorporating VI constraints reduced costs by 0.8% in Case 1 and 25.8% in Case 2. However, applying FC in Case 2 increased costs by 7.1% while improving frequency stability. These findings underscore the importance of VI in reducing operational costs and enhancing grid stability, especially under variable gas supply conditions. The proposed model demonstrates economic efficiency and grid resilience, making it a useful tool for planning integrated energy systems with increasing renewable energy penetration.This study addresses the scheduling problem in power systems transitioning from traditional to renewable generation, which increases frequency security issues due to reduced system inertia. An optimization model co-optimizes UC and VI provision from WF, considering FC and operational limitations of the NG system (NGS). Case studies demonstrate the model's effectiveness and computational efficiency.

从传统的批量发电到可再生能源的转变正在重塑电力系统,由于系统惯性的减少,带来了安全挑战。天然气(NG)发电机组以其快速响应而闻名,通常被安排为操作灵活性,增加了电力和天然气网络之间的相互依赖性。然而,这些网络的分散管理由独立的运营商复杂化协调系统管理。本研究提出了一种优化模型,该模型可以在解决频率约束(FC)和NG网络限制的同时,共同优化风电场(WF)的机组承诺(UC)和虚拟惯性(VI)。通过两个案例研究验证了该模型的有效性:一个具有7个气体节点和IEEE 5总线系统的小型网络,以及一个具有20个气体节点和IEEE 118总线系统的大型系统。结果表明,在案例1和案例2中,纳入VI约束的成本分别降低了0.8%和25.8%。然而,在Case 2中应用FC增加了7.1%的成本,同时提高了频率稳定性。这些发现强调了VI在降低运营成本和提高电网稳定性方面的重要性,特别是在可变的天然气供应条件下。所提出的模型显示了经济效率和电网弹性,使其成为规划可再生能源渗透率不断提高的综合能源系统的有用工具。本文研究了电力系统从传统发电向可再生能源发电过渡的调度问题,由于系统惯性的减少,增加了频率安全问题。考虑到FC和NG系统(NGS)的操作限制,一个优化模型对WF提供的UC和VI进行了协同优化。实例分析表明了该模型的有效性和计算效率。
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引用次数: 0
Pricing of Park Charging Station Integrated Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Based On Metamodel Optimization Algorithm 基于元模型优化算法的光伏储能一体化公园充电站定价
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70133
Wengang Chen, Jinchen Liu, Jiajia Chen, Bingyin Xu

With the rapid growth of electric vehicle (EV) ownership and the lower cost of photovoltaic (PV) modules, photovoltaic-energy storage charging station (PV-ES CS) will gradually become the main configuration method for EV charging station in the future due to its economic and environmental characteristics. However, uncertainty of EV charging behavior has led to the increasing pressure of power grid, so it is necessary to study and establish a new pricing mechanism to guide EV's charging behavior. The paper proposed a new pricing strategy used in three PV-ES CSs based on metamodel optimization algorithm. First, aiming at the uncertainty problem of PV output, a clustering method based on expected cost minimization is utilized to obtain typical PV output curves. Second, a Stackelberg game model between the PV-ES CSs and EV in the parks is established, and the metamodel optimization algorithm is used to solve the Stackelberg game model to simplify the computational complexity. Finally, the validity and practicality of the proposed method are verified through the simulation of a specific example.

随着电动汽车保有量的快速增长和光伏组件成本的降低,光伏储能充电站(PV- es CS)因其经济环保的特点,将逐渐成为未来电动汽车充电站的主要配置方式。然而,电动汽车充电行为的不确定性导致电网的压力越来越大,因此有必要研究建立新的定价机制来引导电动汽车充电行为。本文提出了一种基于元模型优化算法的新型PV-ES CSs定价策略。首先,针对光伏产量的不确定性问题,采用基于期望成本最小化的聚类方法得到典型的光伏产量曲线;其次,建立了园区内PV-ES CSs与EV之间的Stackelberg博弈模型,并采用元模型优化算法求解Stackelberg博弈模型,简化了计算复杂度;最后,通过具体算例的仿真验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive Robust Nonlinear Optimal Sliding Mode Control for Wind Turbines: A Hybrid OHAM-Based Approach to Maximize Power Capture 风力发电机的自适应鲁棒非线性最优滑模控制:一种基于混合oham的最大功率捕获方法
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70131
Arefe Shalbafian, Farhad Amiri, Soheil Ganjefar

In this article, we propose an adaptive robust nonlinear optimal sliding mode control (SMC) using the optimal homotopy asymptotic method (RNOSC-OHAM) for maximizing wind power capture. Because of the unstable nature of the wind and the presence of uncertainties and disturbances in the structure of the wind turbine, the optimal controller cannot provide robustness against uncertainties. Hence, we integrated this approach with a proportional–integral–derivative SMC (PID-SMC) scheme to ensure the robustness of the system. The presented hybrid control input signal involves two components: a nonlinear optimal control law that provides the optimal performance of the nominal system and an adaptive PID-SMC law. The adaptive PID-SMC law employs a PID sliding surface along with adaptive mechanisms to create the robustness of the nonlinear wind turbine system. The nonlinear optimal control policy is designed by addressing the partial differential Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. This equation is approximated using the OHAM. This combination strategy reduces the final time of the optimal control problems, provides desired responses and improves performance. Additionally, the RNOSC-OHAM controller facilitates the safe performance of the wind turbine under uncertainties and maximizes the wind power captured. To evaluate the performance of RNOSC-OHAM, the results of the presented algorithm are compared with some existing control schemes. The results indicate that the designed RNOSC-OHAM controller is very rapid and needs few iterations and computational costs. Indeed, the present control scheme exhibits the best characteristics and has the fastest transient response. The RNOSC-OHAM controller offers a proper balance between enhancing aerodynamic power capture and minimizing low-speed shaft fluctuations using a small control input.

在本文中,我们提出了一种使用最优同伦渐近方法(RNOSC-OHAM)实现风电捕获最大化的自适应鲁棒非线性最优滑模控制(SMC)。由于风的不稳定性以及风力机结构中存在的不确定性和干扰,最优控制器不能提供对不确定性的鲁棒性。因此,我们将该方法与比例-积分-导数SMC (PID-SMC)方案相结合,以确保系统的鲁棒性。所提出的混合控制输入信号包括两个组成部分:提供系统最优性能的非线性最优控制律和自适应PID-SMC律。自适应PID- smc律采用PID滑动面和自适应机构来实现非线性风力发电系统的鲁棒性。通过求解偏微分Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB)方程设计了非线性最优控制策略。这个方程是用OHAM近似的。这种组合策略减少了最优控制问题的最终时间,提供了期望的响应,提高了性能。此外,RNOSC-OHAM控制器促进了风力涡轮机在不确定情况下的安全性能,并最大限度地提高了风力发电。为了评价RNOSC-OHAM算法的性能,将该算法的结果与现有的一些控制方案进行了比较。结果表明,所设计的RNOSC-OHAM控制器速度快,迭代次数少,计算量少。实际上,该控制方案具有最佳的特性和最快的暂态响应。RNOSC-OHAM控制器使用较小的控制输入,在增强气动功率捕获和最小化低速轴波动之间提供了适当的平衡。
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引用次数: 0
Techno-Economic Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Framework for PV Hosting Capacity in Distribution Network Considering Demand Response Programs 考虑需求响应方案的配电网光伏装机容量技术经济多准则决策框架
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70130
Ehsan Heydarian-Forushani, Hamid Karimi, Raymond Ghandour, Mohammad Salman, Hadi Zayyani

This article presents an optimization-based multi-criteria decision-making framework in order to determine the optimal amount of photovoltaic (PV) hosting capacity in the distribution network, taking into account technical and economic aspects. As an effective tool for facilitating PV integration, the demand response (DR) is also integrated into the model using the price-elasticity concept. In this way, a comprehensive set of DR programs, including price-based, incentive-based and combinational programs, are modelled. In order to provide a guideline for distribution network operator to implement the most effective DR program, different programs are prioritized considering the defined economic and technical features using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method. The proposed model is tested on a 14-bus IEEE test system, and the simulation results show that critical peak pricing programs increase the ability of the distribution network to integrate PV resources more than 18.4 kW compared to the general case study. Moreover, it reduces the daily energy losses by 227.7 kWh.

本文提出了一个基于优化的多准则决策框架,以便在考虑技术和经济方面的情况下确定配电网中光伏(PV)托管容量的最佳量。作为促进光伏发电整合的有效工具,需求响应(DR)也使用价格弹性概念集成到模型中。通过这种方式,建立了一套全面的DR方案,包括基于价格的、基于激励的和组合方案。为了给配电网运营商提供实施最有效的灾备方案的指导,利用TOPSIS方法,考虑已定义的经济和技术特征,对不同方案进行优先排序。在14总线IEEE测试系统上对所提出的模型进行了测试,仿真结果表明,与一般案例研究相比,关键峰值定价方案使配电网整合光伏资源的能力提高了18.4 kW以上。每天可减少227.7千瓦时的电能损耗。
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引用次数: 0
Combining H∞ Control and Communication-Free Power Allocation for Enhanced Stability in VSC-MTDC Networks With Offshore Wind Farms 结合H∞控制和无通信功率分配提高海上风电场VSC-MTDC网络稳定性
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70128
Mohsen Darabian, Mohammad Javad Moeininia, Ehsan Akbari

This research explores stability challenges in power systems from integrating offshore wind farms (OWFs) with voltage source converter (VSC)-based multi-terminal direct current (MTDC) networks. A novel two-level integrated control (TLIC) framework is proposed to enhance frequency regulation at grid-side VSC (GSVSC) stations. The first level features adaptive inertial control (AIC) and adaptive droop control (ADC). By dynamically adjusting AIC and ADC parameters, wind units (WUs) in maximum power point tracking (MPPT) mode effectively mitigate secondary frequency fall (SFF). WUs are clustered by rotor speeds, enabling staged frequency support for improved responsiveness. The second level uses a communication-independent allocation (CIA) strategy, relying on local frequency measurements in the onshore power system (OPS) to balance power distribution among GSVSC stations. This bolsters OPS frequency stability and minimises SFF during MPPT operations. A robust H∞ controller, designed via loop-shaping, is applied at the wind farm-side VSC (WSVSC), employing multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) for voltage optimisation. The MTDC DC voltage employs a Master-Slave (MS) configuration to suppress variations under disturbances. MATLAB simulations across scenarios validate the strategy's robustness in damping oscillations from uncertainties.

本研究探讨了将海上风电场(owf)与基于电压源变换器(VSC)的多终端直流(MTDC)网络集成在一起的电力系统的稳定性挑战。为提高电网侧VSC (GSVSC)站的频率调节能力,提出了一种新的两级集成控制(TLIC)框架。第一级具有自适应惯性控制(AIC)和自适应下垂控制(ADC)。通过动态调整AIC和ADC参数,风电机组在最大功率点跟踪(MPPT)模式下可有效缓解二次降频(SFF)。wu按转子转速进行分组,实现了分阶段频率支持,以提高响应能力。第二层使用通信独立分配(CIA)策略,依靠陆上电力系统(OPS)中的本地频率测量来平衡GSVSC站之间的功率分配。这增强了OPS频率稳定性,并最大限度地减少了MPPT操作期间的SFF。通过回路整形设计的鲁棒H∞控制器应用于风电场侧VSC (WSVSC),采用多准则决策(MCDM)进行电压优化。MTDC直流电压采用主从(MS)配置来抑制干扰下的变化。跨场景的MATLAB仿真验证了该策略在抑制不确定性振荡方面的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
An Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Method Based on Adaptive Cleaning of Streaming Data and Differentiating of Input Feature Contributions 基于流数据自适应清洗和输入特征贡献区分的超短期风电预测方法
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70127
Yuhao Li, Han Wang, Chang Ge, Jie Yan, Shuang Han, Yongqian Liu

Ultra-short-term wind power forecasting plays a crucial role in real-time dispatching, frequency regulation, and intraday electricity market transactions. Forecasting accuracy heavily depends on data quality and feature informativeness. However, most existing studies conduct data cleaning offline, with limited attention to real-time data quality during forecasting. Moreover, they often use historical power and NWP data uniformly, neglecting the time-varying importance of input features. To address these issues, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term wind power forecasting method based on dynamic cleaning of streaming data anomalies and adaptive processing of input feature contributions. Firstly, similar samples of the current wind process are retrieved online via time series similarity matching, enabling real-time anomaly detection in streaming data. Secondly, anomalous power sequences are reconstructed using a theoretical restoration model based on wind speed fluctuation identification. Finally, a forecasting architecture with personalised encoding and dynamically fused decoding is designed to enhance prediction accuracy. The proposed method has been successfully applied to a wind-solar-storage power station in Inner Mongolia, supporting both grid dispatching operations and daily maintenance. Compared to baseline methods, it achieves average reductions in forecasting errors of 0.59–9.99 percentage points for RMSE and 0.62–8.49 percentage points for MAE.

风电超短期预测在实时调度、频率调节和电力市场交易中具有重要作用。预测的准确性很大程度上取决于数据的质量和特征的信息量。然而,现有的大多数研究都是离线进行数据清洗,在预测过程中对实时数据质量的关注有限。此外,它们通常统一使用历史功率和NWP数据,而忽略了输入特征的时变重要性。针对这些问题,本文提出了一种基于流数据异常动态清洗和输入特征贡献自适应处理的超短期风电预测方法。首先,通过时间序列相似性匹配在线检索当前风过程的相似样本,实现对流数据的实时异常检测;其次,采用基于风速波动识别的理论恢复模型对异常功率序列进行重构。最后,设计了个性化编码和动态融合解码的预测体系结构,提高了预测精度。该方法已成功应用于内蒙古某风力-太阳能-储能电站,既支持电网调度运行,又支持日常维护。与基线方法相比,RMSE的预测误差平均降低0.59-9.99个百分点,MAE的预测误差平均降低0.62-8.49个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
Nonlinear Modal Analysis of Hybrid Multi-Terminal DC Transmission Systems Linked to Wind Farms 与风电场相连的混合多端直流输电系统的非线性模态分析
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-03 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70126
Ali Ziaei, Reza Ghazi, Roohalamin Zeinali Davarani

The integration of renewable energy sources, particularly wind farms, into modern power systems requires advanced transmission technologies. High voltage direct current (HVDC) systems, especially in multi-terminal configurations (MTDC), are effective for transferring high power to the grid. However, there are concerns about the interaction of HVDC controllers with other devices of the system, which can lead to instability in the power system. Additionally, the complexity of new systems, due to the integration of power electronics and control systems, increases the potential for interaction with the torsional modes of the wind turbine. This paper conducts a nonlinear modal analysis (NLMS) of hybrid MTDC systems connected to wind farms, examining component interactions and their stability on impact. (NLMS is employed as the primary analytical method. The results obtained from this method are compared with those from linear modal analysis and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method.By using the NLMS technique, it reveals insights into complex interactions under various conditions and quantifies how controller parameters affect stability. This research enhances the understanding of dynamics in hybrid HVDC systems and lays the groundwork for future studies and practical applications in resilient power network design and operation.

将可再生能源,特别是风力发电厂,整合到现代电力系统中,需要先进的传输技术。高压直流(HVDC)系统,特别是多终端配置(MTDC)系统,是向电网输送高功率的有效途径。然而,人们担心高压直流控制器与系统中其他设备的相互作用会导致电力系统的不稳定。此外,由于电力电子和控制系统的集成,新系统的复杂性增加了与风力涡轮机扭转模式相互作用的可能性。本文对与风电场相连的混合MTDC系统进行了非线性模态分析(NLMS),考察了组件间的相互作用及其在冲击下的稳定性。(NLMS是主要的分析方法。将该方法与线性模态分析和四阶龙格-库塔(RK4)方法的结果进行了比较。通过使用NLMS技术,它揭示了在各种条件下复杂相互作用的见解,并量化了控制器参数如何影响稳定性。本研究增强了对混合直流系统动力学的认识,为今后在弹性电网设计和运行中的研究和实际应用奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Introducing a Novel Controller for Combined Load Frequency Control and Automatic Voltage Regulation of Interconnected Microgrids 介绍了一种用于互联微电网负荷联合变频和电压自动调节的新型控制器
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70125
Zahra Esmaeili, Hossein Heydari

The microgrid exhibits low inertia levels and small X/R ratios. Consequently, load changes can adversely affect microgrid stability. However, frequency and voltage oscillations can be mitigated through the use of a load frequency control (LFC) system and an automatic voltage regulator (AVR), which serve as secondary control mechanisms. Additionally, the integration of photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) in microgrids complicates the performance of LFC and voltage control due to the uncertainties associated with these renewable sources. Therefore, it is essential to employ a suitable controller with optimal parameters. To address this, this paper introduces a novel control technique known as the tilt-proportional-integral-derivative second-order derivative controller (TPIDD2) to concurrently manage the voltage and frequency of microgrids. It also incorporates an intelligent optimisation algorithm integrated with quantum computing, referred to as quantum teaching-learning-based optimisation (QTLBO), to achieve optimal control parameters. The test system consists of a two-area interconnected microgrid, where each area includes various sources such as PV, WT, fuel cell (FC), diesel generator, and battery energy storage system (BESS). The integral of time multiplied by the squared error (ITSE) is utilised as the objective function. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed controller, it is compared with the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller. From the ITSE perspective, the proposed controller is 71.96% more effective than the PID controller. Furthermore, the results obtained using QTLBO are contrasted with those from teaching-learning based optimization (TLBO), differential evolution (DE), and RCGA.

微电网表现出低惯性水平和小X/R比。因此,负荷变化会对微电网的稳定性产生不利影响。然而,频率和电压振荡可以通过使用负载频率控制(LFC)系统和自动电压调节器(AVR)来减轻,它们作为二级控制机制。此外,由于与这些可再生能源相关的不确定性,微电网中光伏(PV)和风力涡轮机(WT)的集成使LFC和电压控制的性能变得复杂。因此,有必要采用具有最优参数的合适控制器。为了解决这个问题,本文引入了一种称为倾斜比例积分导数二阶导数控制器(TPIDD2)的新型控制技术来同时管理微电网的电压和频率。它还集成了与量子计算集成的智能优化算法,称为基于量子教学的优化(QTLBO),以实现最优控制参数。测试系统由两个区域互联的微电网组成,每个区域包括PV、WT、燃料电池(FC)、柴油发电机、电池储能系统(BESS)等各种电源。利用时间积分乘以误差平方(ITSE)作为目标函数。为了证明该控制器的有效性,将其与比例-积分-导数(PID)控制器进行了比较。从ITSE的角度来看,所提出的控制器比PID控制器有效71.96%。此外,将QTLBO与基于教与学的优化(TLBO)、差分进化(DE)和RCGA的结果进行了对比。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial-Temporal Analysis of ‘Power Drought’ Under Compound Dry-Hot Events for Renewable Power Systems 复合干热事件下可再生能源系统“电力干旱”的时空分析
IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1049/rpg2.70120
Xiaoyan Bian, Xueer Wang, Bo Zhou, Jiawei Zhang, Tingting Wang, Shunfu Lin

In recent years, compound dry-hot events have significantly impacted human society, particularly affecting the source and load sides of the power system. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, these events pose growing challenges to power supply-demand balances. Therefore, this paper proposes the concept of ‘power drought’ for the first time to quantify the severity of supply-demand imbalances and identify their spatial-temporal evolution under compound dry-hot events. The analysis begins by examining the coupling between meteorological parameters, renewable energy output and load demand under compound dry-hot events. Specifically, the concept of power drought is defined, followed by the formulation of relevant evaluation metrics. Then, a spatial-temporal clustering algorithm and a centroid migration model are applied to analyse the evolution characteristics of power drought events. Finally, the validity and practicality of the proposed method are demonstrated using practical data from a certain region to analyse the evolution of power drought over the past decade. Case studies reveal a south-westward migration of power drought centroids, with 66.49% of grids showing positive correlation between the standardised compound event index and the power drought index.

近年来,复合干热事件对人类社会产生了重大影响,特别是对电力系统的源侧和负荷侧产生了重大影响。随着可再生能源的日益普及,这些事件对电力供需平衡提出了越来越大的挑战。因此,本文首次提出了“电力干旱”的概念,以量化供需失衡的严重程度,并确定其在复合干热事件下的时空演变。分析首先考察了复合干热事件下气象参数、可再生能源输出和负荷需求之间的耦合关系。具体来说,首先定义了电力干旱的概念,然后制定了相关的评价指标。然后,应用时空聚类算法和质心迁移模型分析了电力干旱事件的演化特征。最后,通过对某地区近十年来电力干旱演变的实测数据分析,验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。电力干旱质心呈西南向迁移,66.49%的电网标准化复合事件指数与电力干旱指数呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
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