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Atmospheric rivers associated with summer heavy rainfall over the Yangtze Plain 大气河流与长江平原夏季强降雨有关
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1071/ES19028
P. Liang, Guangtao Dong, Huqiang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Yuexiong Ma
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow bands of enhanced water vapour transport in the low atmosphere, mainly from the tropics into the midlatitudes. However, it is still unclear how ARs act on different timescales during the boreal summer when frequent heavy precipitation events take place in East Asia, often resulting in severe flood that impacts property and human lives. In this study, we investigated climatological ARs, and their evolution on both synoptic and subseasonal timescales, associated with heavy rainfall events over the Yangtze Plain in China. Furthermore, their predictability was assessed by examining hindcast skills from an operational coupled seasonal forecast system of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology named ACCESS-S1. Results showed that ARs embedded within the South Asian monsoon and Somali cross-equatorial flow provide a favourable background for steady moisture supply of summer rainfall into East Asia. We call this favourable background a ‘climatological East Asian AR’, which has close connections with seasonal cycles and climatological intraseasonal oscillation of rainfall in the Yangtze Plain during its Meiyu season. The East Asian AR was also influenced by anomalous anticyclonic circulations over the tropical West Pacific when heavy rainfall events occurred over the Yangtze Plain. Different from orography-induced precipitation, ARs that led to heavy rainfall over the Yangtze Plain were linked with the intrusions of cold air from the north. The major source of ARs responsible for heavy precipitation events over the Yangtze Plain appeared to originate from the tropical West Pacific on both synoptic and subseasonal timescales. In 23-year hindcasts for May-June-July the current model, ACCESS-S1, had skillful rainfall forecasts at a lead time of 0 month, but the skill degraded significantly with longer lead times. Nevertheless, the model showed skills in predicting the variations of low-level moisture transport affecting the Yangtze River at longer lead time, suggesting that the ARs influencing summer monsoon rainfall in the East Asian region are likely to be more predictable than rainfall itself. There is potential in using AR predictions from the coupled forecast system to guide rainfall forecasts in the East Asian summer season at longer lead time, which can contribute to disaster prevention and reduction in East Asia.
大气河(ARs)是低层大气中水汽输送增强的狭长带,主要从热带向中纬度地区输送。然而,在东亚频繁发生强降水事件的北纬夏季期间,ar在不同时间尺度上的作用尚不清楚,而北纬夏季通常会导致严重的洪水,影响财产和人类生命。本文研究了与长江平原强降雨事件相关的气候ar及其在天气和亚季节时间尺度上的演变。此外,通过检查澳大利亚气象局的一个名为ACCESS-S1的业务耦合季节预报系统的预测技能,评估了它们的可预测性。结果表明,南亚季风和索马里跨赤道气流中的ar为东亚夏季降水的稳定水汽供应提供了有利的背景。我们将这一有利背景称为“东亚气候AR”,它与梅雨季节长江平原降水的季节周期和季节内气候振荡密切相关。当长江平原发生强降水时,热带西太平洋上空的异常反气旋环流也影响了东亚的反气旋。与地形诱导降水不同,导致长江平原强降水的ARs与北方冷空气的入侵有关。在天气和亚季节的时间尺度上,造成长江平原强降水事件的主要ar源似乎来自热带西太平洋。在5月- 6月- 7月的23年预测中,目前的模型ACCESS-S1在提前0个月的时间内进行了熟练的降雨预测,但随着提前时间的延长,技能显著下降。然而,该模式显示出在较长提前时间内预测影响长江的低层水汽输送变化的能力,这表明影响东亚地区夏季季风降雨的ar可能比降雨本身更可预测。利用耦合预报系统的AR预报,有可能在较长的提前期内指导东亚夏季的降雨预报,从而有助于东亚的防灾减灾。
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引用次数: 11
Potential connections between atmospheric rivers in China and Australia 中国和澳大利亚大气河流之间的潜在联系
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1071/ES19027
Lin Xu, Huqiang Zhang, Weiwei He, Chengzhi Ye, A. Moise, José María Rodríguez
Results from a collaborative project between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and China Meteorological Administration found that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can occur simultaneously in East Asia and Australia. Furthermore, ARs and the Northwest Cloud Band in the Australia region tend to reach their peaks during austral cool season (May–August). At the same time that the Asian summer monsoon develops and its meridional moisture transport and AR activities intensify. This has prompted us to explore potential connections of ARs in the two regions. In this study, we firstly analysed two ARs and their mechanism that occurred in China and Australia in June 2016, which caused significant rainfall in both countries. We then explored the atmospheric circulation background for such AR connections. From this case study, we show that ARs originating from the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans can become bifurcated through Indo-Pacific inter-basin interactions. The position of the bifurcation appears to depend on the location and intensity of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), the subtropical high in the Australian region and the middle-latitude storm track migration in the southern hemisphere. Moreover, by analysing bifurcated AR events from the past two decades, we show that they are more likely to occur during boreal summer months. Most of the bifurcations occurred in the boreal summer following the decaying phase of an El Niño in its preceding winter, due to a delayed El Niño Southern Oscillation influence on the WPSH and a subtropical high in the Australian region. Our research further demonstrates the value of applying AR analysis in improving our understanding of the weather and climate in the Australia–Asian monsoon region.
澳大利亚气象局和中国气象局合作项目的结果发现,大气河流(ARs)可以同时发生在东亚和澳大利亚。此外,澳大利亚地区的ar和西北云带往往在南方凉爽季节(5 - 8月)达到峰值。与此同时,亚洲夏季风发展,经向水汽输送和AR活动增强。这促使我们探索两个地区ar的潜在联系。在这项研究中,我们首先分析了2016年6月发生在中国和澳大利亚的两次ar及其机制,这两次ar导致了两国的显著降雨。然后,我们探索了这种AR连接的大气环流背景。通过本案例研究,我们发现起源于热带印度洋和太平洋的ar可以通过印太盆地间相互作用而分叉。分岔的位置似乎取决于西太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度、澳大利亚地区副热带高压和南半球中纬度风暴路径的迁移。此外,通过分析过去20年的分岔AR事件,我们发现它们更有可能发生在北方夏季。由于厄尔Niño南方涛动对西太平洋高压的延迟影响和澳大利亚地区的副热带高压,大多数分叉发生在厄尔Niño在其前一个冬季的衰减阶段之后的北方夏季。我们的研究进一步证明了应用AR分析在提高我们对澳大利亚-亚洲季风区天气和气候的理解方面的价值。
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引用次数: 4
Climate sensitivity revisited 重新审视气候敏感性
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1071/ES19031
G. Ayers
The commonly used energy balance model from Gregory et al. (2002) that underlies many published estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR) to anthropogenic forcing requires only four parameters for calculation of ECS and three for TCR. Both estimates require a value for the increase in global mean surface air temperature (ΔT) over a period of time, the increment in forcing driving the temperature change over that period (ΔF), and knowledge of the radiative forcing resulting from a doubling in CO2 concentration (F2×CO2). For ECS a value for the associated global heating rate (ΔQ) is also required. Each of these parameters has a best estimate available from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, but the authors did not provide best estimates for ECS and TCR within the broad uncertainty ranges quoted, 1.5–4.5K for ECS and 1.0–2.5K for TCR. Best estimates for ECS and TCR consistent with AR5 best estimates for ΔF and F2×CO2 are provided here. A well-known heuristic model was modified and applied to seven observation-based global temperature datasets to isolate temperature trend due to anthropogenic forcing from confounding effects of variability due to volcanism, cycles in solar irradiance and internal climate variability. The seven estimates of ECS and TCR were remarkably similar despite very large differences in time-base of the datasets analysed, yielding best estimates of 2.36±0.13K and 1.58±0.09K respectively at 95% confidence based on the AR5 best estimates for ΔF, F2×CO2 and ΔQ from Wijffels et al. (2016). The ECS and TCR best estimates here are tied to those AR5 and ΔQ best estimates, but can be simply scaled were those best estimate values to be refined in the future.
Gregory等人(2002)常用的能量平衡模式是许多已发表的关于平衡气候敏感性(ECS)和短暂气候响应(TCR)的估计的基础,计算ECS和TCR只需要四个参数。这两种估计都需要一个全球平均地表气温在一段时间内的增加值(ΔT)、在这段时间内驱动温度变化的强迫的增加值(ΔF),以及关于二氧化碳浓度加倍所导致的辐射强迫的知识(F2×CO2)。对于ECS,还需要一个相关的全球升温速率值(ΔQ)。这些参数中的每一个都有IPCC第五次评估报告提供的最佳估计,但作者没有在引用的广泛不确定性范围内提供ECS和TCR的最佳估计,ECS为1.5-4.5K, TCR为1.0-2.5K。这里提供了与第五次评估报告一致的ECS和TCR的最佳估计值ΔF和F2×CO2。对一个著名的启发式模型进行了改进,并将其应用于7个基于观测的全球温度数据集,以将人为强迫引起的温度趋势与火山活动、太阳辐照周期和内部气候变率引起的变率混杂效应分离开来。尽管所分析数据集的时间基础存在很大差异,但ECS和TCR的7个估计值非常相似,基于Wijffels等人(2016)对ΔF、F2×CO2和ΔQ的AR5最佳估计值,在95%置信度下分别产生2.36±0.13K和1.58±0.09K的最佳估计值。这里的ECS和TCR最佳估计值与AR5和ΔQ最佳估计值相关联,但可以简单地缩放这些最佳估计值,以便在未来进行改进。
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引用次数: 0
Atmospheric rivers impacting mainland China and Australia: climatology and interannual variations 影响中国大陆和澳大利亚的大气河流:气候学和年际变化
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1071/ES19029
Xianghong Wu, Chengzhi Ye, Weiwei He, Jingjing Chen, Lin Xu, Huqiang Zhang
In this study we have built two atmospheric river (AR) databases for mainland China and Australia using Japanese 55-year Reanalysis data with manual detections. By manually checking the magnitude, shape and orientation of vertically integrated vapour transport fields calculated from the reanalysis data and analysing its embedded synoptic patterns and other meteorological information, we detected 625 AR events over mainland China during 1986–2016 and 576 AR events over the Australian continent during 1977–2016. This manuscript documents the mean climatology, spatial distributions, seasonality and interannual variations of ARs occurring in these two regions. We also assessed possible underlying drivers influencing AR activities. Our results showed that: (i) most ARs over mainland China occured in its lower latitudes, including southern, eastern and central China, but ARs also reached its far north and northeast regions. In Australia, most ARs occurred in the states of Western Australia, South Australia and part of New South Wales and Victoria. These regions of high AR frequencies also frequently experienced Northwest Cloud Bands during the cool season; (ii) ARs in China reached their peak during the East Asian summer monsoon season (May–September). This was also the period when AR frequency in the Australian region tended to be higher, but its seasonal variation was weaker than in China; (iii) ARs exhibited large interannual variations in both regions and a declining trend in central and eastern China; (iv) there was a notable influence of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the AR activities in the region, with the ARs in Australia being particularly affected by Indian Ocean SSTs and El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific. ARs in China appear to be affected by ENSO in its decaying phase, with more ARs likely occurring in boreal summer following a peak El Nino during its preceding winter; (v) the Western Pacific Subtropical High plays a dominant role in forming major moisture transport channels for ARs in China, and South China Sea appears to be a key moisture source. In the Australian region, warm and moist air from the eastern part of the tropical Indian Ocean plays a significant role for ARs in the western part of the continent. In addition, moisture transport from the Coral Sea region was an important moisture source for ARs in its east. Results from this study have demonstrated the value of using AR diagnosis to better understand processes governing climate variations in the A–A region.
在本研究中,我们利用日本55年的人工再分析数据,建立了中国大陆和澳大利亚的两个大气河(AR)数据库。通过人工核对再分析资料计算的垂直整合水汽输送场的大小、形状和方向,并分析其嵌入的天气模式和其他气象信息,我们发现1986-2016年中国大陆发生了625次AR事件,1977-2016年澳大利亚大陆发生了576次AR事件。本文记录了这两个地区的平均气候学、空间分布、季节性和年际变化。我们还评估了可能影响AR活动的潜在驱动因素。结果表明:(1)中国大陆上空的ar主要发生在中国南部、东部和中部的低纬度地区,但ar也到达中国大陆的远北部和东北部地区。在澳大利亚,大多数ar发生在西澳大利亚州、南澳大利亚州以及新南威尔士州和维多利亚州的部分地区。这些高AR频率区域在凉爽季节也经常出现西北云带;(ii)东亚夏季风季(5 - 9月)是中国ar的高峰。这也是澳大利亚地区AR频率较高的时期,但其季节变化弱于中国;(三)两区域的农业生产总值年际变化较大,中东部呈下降趋势;(四)热带海表温度对区域内的AR活动有显著影响,其中澳大利亚的AR特别受到印度洋海表温度和热带太平洋El-Niño南方涛动(ENSO)的影响。中国的ar似乎受到ENSO衰减阶段的影响,在其前一个冬季厄尔尼诺峰值之后的北方夏季可能发生更多ar;(5)西太平洋副热带高压在中国副热带气旋主要水汽输送通道的形成中起主导作用,南海是主要水汽来源。在澳大利亚地区,来自热带印度洋东部的暖湿空气对该大陆西部的ar起着重要作用。此外,来自珊瑚海地区的水汽输送是其东部ARs的重要水汽来源。这项研究的结果证明了使用AR诊断来更好地理解A-A地区气候变化的控制过程的价值。
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引用次数: 12
Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (winter 2018): fifteenth-warmest and fourteenth-driest 南半球季节气候摘要(2018年冬季):最暖第十五位,最干第十四位
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-17 DOI: 10.1071/ES19038
Zhi-Weng Chua
This is a summary of the southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns and meteorological indices for winter 2018; an account of seasonal rainfall and temperature for the Australian region and the broader southern hemisphere is also provided. The climate influences from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole were weak, with both demonstrating neutral conditions over the season. It was a dry and warm winter for Australia, being the fourteenth-driest and fifteenth-warmest (in terms of mean temperature) in a record of 119 and 109 years respectively. The warm and dry conditions were particularly pronounced over eastern Australia during July. Maximum temperatures were above average while minimum temperatures were below average.
这是2018年冬季南半球大气环流模式和气象指数的总结;还提供了澳大利亚地区和更广泛的南半球的季节性降雨和温度的说明。El Niño-Southern涛动和印度洋偶极子对气候的影响较弱,在整个季节都表现为中性状态。对澳大利亚来说,这是一个干燥而温暖的冬天,分别是119年和109年记录中第14个最干燥和第15个最温暖的冬天(就平均温度而言)。7月,澳大利亚东部的温暖和干燥情况尤为明显。最高气温高于平均气温,而最低气温低于平均气温。
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引用次数: 0
Atmospheric rivers in the Australia-Asian region: a BoM–CMA collaborative study 澳大利亚-亚洲地区大气河流:boma - cma合作研究
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-08-28 DOI: 10.1071/es19025
Chengzhi Ye, Huqiang Zhang, A. Moise, R. Mo
The name ‘atmospheric river’ (AR) could easily be misinterpreted to mean rivers flowing in the sky. But, ARs actually refer to narrow bands of strong horizontal water vapour transport that are concentrated in the lower troposphere. These bands are called ‘atmospheric rivers’ because the water vapour flux they carry is close to the volume of water carried by big river systems on the ground. ARs can cause heavy rainfall events if some physical mechanisms, such as orographic enhancement, exist to set up the moisture convergence and vertical motions necessary to produce condensation. In recent decades, these significant moisture plumes have attracted increasing attention from scientific communities, especially in North America and western Europe, to further understand the connections between ARs and extreme precipitation events which can trigger severe natural disasters such as floods, mudslides and avalanches. Yet very limited research has been conducted in the Australia-Asian (A-A) region, where the important role of atmospheric moisture transport has long been recognised for its rainfall generation and variations. In this paper, we introduce a collaborative project between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and China Meteorological Administration, which was set up to explore the detailed AR characteristics of atmospheric moisture transport embedded in the A-A monsoon system. The project in China focused on using AR analysis to explore connections between moisture transport and extreme rainfall mainly during the boreal summer monsoon season. In Australia, AR analysis was used to understand the connections between the river-like Northwest Cloud Band and rainfall in the region. Results from this project demonstrate the potential benefits of applying AR analysis to better understand the role of tropical moisture transport in rainfall generation in the extratropics, thus achieve better rainfall forecast skills at NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction), sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales. We also discuss future directions of this collaborative research, including further assessing potential changes in ARs under global warming.
“大气河”(AR)这个名字很容易被误解为天空中流动的河流。但是,ar实际上指的是集中在对流层下层的强水平水汽输送的窄带。这些带被称为“大气河”,因为它们携带的水蒸气通量接近地面上大型河流系统携带的水量。如果存在某些物理机制,例如地形增强,以建立产生凝结所必需的水汽辐合和垂直运动,则ar可以引起强降雨事件。近几十年来,这些显著的水汽羽流引起了科学界,特别是北美和西欧科学界越来越多的关注,以进一步了解ar与极端降水事件之间的联系,极端降水事件可能引发洪水、泥石流和雪崩等严重的自然灾害。然而,在澳大利亚-亚洲(A-A)地区进行的研究非常有限,在该地区,大气水分输送的重要作用长期以来一直被认为是降雨的产生和变化。本文介绍了澳大利亚气象局与中国气象局的合作项目,该项目旨在探索a - a季风系统中大气水分输送的详细AR特征。中国的项目侧重于利用AR分析来探索主要在北方夏季季风季节的水分输送与极端降雨之间的联系。在澳大利亚,使用AR分析来了解河流状西北云带与该地区降雨之间的联系。该项目的结果表明,应用AR分析可以更好地了解热带水汽输送在温带降水产生中的作用,从而在数值天气预报(NWP)、亚季节和季节时间尺度上实现更好的降雨预报技能。我们还讨论了未来合作研究的方向,包括进一步评估全球变暖下ar的潜在变化。
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引用次数: 18
Atmospheric rivers in the Australia-Asian region 澳大利亚-亚洲地区的大气河流
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/ESV70N1_FO1
C. Frederiksen
In recent years,more andmore attention has been focused on the atmospheric river (AR) diagnosis and its application in characterising atmospheric moisture transport between the tropics and the extratropics. Significant research (see, for example, references in Ye et al. 2020) has been conducted over North America due to a close association between ARs and extreme rainfall events over thewest coast.More studies are beginning to emerge over other parts of the globe such as, for example, along the South American coasts and parts of Europe. There are hundredsofARstudiesbeingpublishedeachyear frommeteorologicalandhydrometeorologicalcommunitiesworldwide.However, there are only very limited AR studies in our region even though we have a significant number of synoptic events, such as Northwest Cloud Bands (NWCBs), which share some common features as described by the AR concept. Therefore, it is very pleasing to see this collaboration between scientists in the AustralianBureauofMeteorologyandtheChinaMeteorological Administration focused on this series of AR diagnostic studies over the Australia-Asian (A-A) region. I commend the strong scientific leadership and significant efforts of Dr. Huqiang Zhang and his collaborators in conducting this important researchandfurtherdeveloping their studies intosixmanuscripts in this Research Front of the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. I believe they will attract more interest from our research community and lead to further investigations of this important topic. I agree with the authors that the term ‘atmospheric river’ may create the wrong impression that the research is about ‘rivers’ in the sky,when in fact it refers to anarrowbandof stronghorizontal water vapour transport concentrated in the lower troposphere.As the authors point out, the use of the word ‘river’ comes from the fact that the amount of atmospheric vapour flux associated with such a structure is about the samevolume as for river flows on the ground. In this Research Front, the researchers have comprehensively documented their analysis ofARs inour region.Theyhave conducted detailed observational case studies of AR characteristics operating in the A-A region and their differences to ARs reported for the North American middle and high latitudes (Ye et al. 2020). They have applied backward trajectory analysis to explore the atmospheric moisture source for such ARs and highlighted tropical moisture as the primary contributor to the corresponding rainfall generated in the extratropics. They have investigatedthepotential linksbetweenARsinEastAsiaandover theAustralian continent andused suchconnections to explain the seasonality of NWCBs and ARs in our region (Xu et al. 2020a). They have further proposed a mechanism associated with teleconnections in the subtropical highs of both hemispheres to explain these connections. They have also assessed the potential ofusingARsto linkmodelskill (bothNWPandseasonal forecast) inforecastingthesestro
(2020)是一种非常宝贵的资源,并且有进一步发展的空间,例如,通过引入ar的自动检测并将诊断作为CSIRO出版的常规业务产品的一部分
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引用次数: 0
Bureau of Meteorology Annual R&D Workshop 2019 气象局2019年度研发研讨会
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/ESV70N1_FO2
D. Greenslade, L. Majewski
The Bureau of Meteorology’s 31st Annual Research and Development workshop was held in Melbourne, in November 2019 and had the theme ‘Forecasting for the Future: New science for improved weather, water, ocean and climate services’. Environmental forecast services range from routine daily weather forecasts for the public, to seasonal outlooks and climate projections aimed at informing decisions by agriculture and water managers. Emergency managers rely on highly customised services during times of extreme weather such as fires, floods, heatwaves and tropical cyclones. Industry specific advice on the influences of climate variability and change enables society to deal with the challenges posed by our unique climate, both today and in the future. In order to meet the increasing demands of customers and deliver greater impact and value, service providers are transforming the way in which they work. This transformation process requires significantly enhanced capability in science and technology. Key advances that enhance our abilities to forecast from hourly to decadal scales include:
2019年11月,澳大利亚气象局第31届年度研究与发展研讨会在墨尔本举行,主题为“预测未来:改善天气、水、海洋和气候服务的新科学”。环境预报服务包括为公众提供的日常天气预报,以及旨在为农业和水资源管理者提供决策信息的季节展望和气候预测。在发生火灾、洪水、热浪和热带气旋等极端天气时,应急管理人员依赖高度定制的服务。关于气候变率和变化影响的行业具体咨询使社会能够应对我们独特的气候在今天和未来所带来的挑战。为了满足客户不断增长的需求,提供更大的影响和价值,服务提供商正在改变他们的工作方式。这一转变对科技能力的要求显著提高。提高我们从小时到年代际预报能力的主要进展包括:
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引用次数: 0
High-impact thunderstorms of the Brisbane metropolitan area 布里斯班市区的高影响雷暴
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es19017
J. Soderholm, Kathryn I. Turner, Jordan Brook, Tony Wedd, Jeffery Callaghan
Accurate thunderstorm warnings in the hours-to-minutes preceding impact are often limited by the complex evolution of the mesoscale atmospheric environment. To accurately capture these complexities, analysis of observations remained central to operational short-term nowcasting predictions of thunderstorms. Over the past 40 years, multiple highimpact thunderstorm events have impacted the Brisbane Metropolitan Area (BMA) of South East Queensland resulting in significant insured losses. Four of these high-impact events were the focus of the following work. These cases included three events that resulted in the greatest insured losses for the BMA, exceeding AU$4 billion (2017) (18 January 1985, 16 November 2008 and 27 November 2014) and a fourth significant event (24 December 1989). Synthesis of previous work indicates that the four high-impact cases occurred during a south-easterly change with strengthening winds ahead of the change, suggesting commonalities may exist that can be exploited for forecasting. This paper provides a detailed observational analysis of the environment and convective storms from the four BMA events to explore discriminating characteristics that may improve the skill of nowcasting. For the four BMA events, significant deep convection was observed along the change for the hours prior to the change’s arrival at the Brisbane Airport, potentially acting as an early indicator of favourable conditions for high-impact thunderstorms. It was found that the timing of the south-easterly change through Brisbane was also highly correlated for all events, occurring within a 90-min window during the mid-afternoon convective heating maximum. Despite the destructive severe weather, upper air conditions were marginal for supporting organised thunderstorms, highlighting the importance of capturing mesoscale processes, such as the south-easterly change. To further understand possible discriminators of the four high-impact BMA cases, a 10-year climatology of the mesoscale and synoptic environment associated with south-easterly change events was developed for the warm season months of November to January. It is shown that although only a small number of events are associated with high-impact BMA thunderstorms, these events share a set of conditions relating to the prechange wind shift, timing of the south-easterly change and radar signatures.
雷暴发生前数小时至数分钟内的准确预警往往受到中尺度大气环境复杂演变的限制。为了准确地捕捉这些复杂性,对观测结果的分析仍然是雷暴短期临近预报的核心。在过去的40年中,多次高影响雷暴事件影响了昆士兰州东南部的布里斯班大都市区(BMA),造成了重大的保险损失。其中四个高影响事件是以下工作的重点。这些案例包括导致BMA最大保险损失的三个事件,超过40亿澳元(2017年)(1985年1月18日,2008年11月16日和2014年11月27日)和第四个重大事件(1989年12月24日)。综合以往的工作表明,这四个高影响案例发生在一个东南变化期间,在该变化之前风力增强,这表明可能存在可用于预测的共性。本文对四个BMA事件的环境和对流风暴进行了详细的观测分析,以探讨可能提高临近预报技能的判别特征。在四个BMA事件中,在变化到达布里斯班机场之前的几个小时内,沿着变化观察到明显的深层对流,可能作为高影响雷暴有利条件的早期指标。通过布里斯班的东南向变化的时间也与所有事件高度相关,发生在午后对流加热最大值的90分钟窗口内。尽管有破坏性的恶劣天气,但高空条件对于支持有组织的雷暴来说是次要的,这突出了捕捉中尺度过程的重要性,例如东南变化。为了进一步了解4次高影响BMA事件的可能判别因素,对11月至1月暖季月份的中尺度气候和与东南变化事件相关的天气环境进行了10年气候学研究。结果表明,虽然只有少数事件与高影响BMA雷暴有关,但这些事件都有一系列与变化前风移、东南变化时间和雷达特征有关的条件。
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引用次数: 1
Seasonal climate summary for the southern hemisphere (spring 2016): strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole ends, bringing second wettest September to Australia 南半球季节气候总结(2016年春季):印度洋强负偶极子结束,给澳大利亚带来第二潮湿的9月
IF 3.6 4区 地球科学 Q1 Earth and Planetary Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1071/es19013
B. Trewin, C. Ganter
This summary looks at the southern hemisphere and equatorial climate patterns for spring 2016, with particular attention given to the Australasian and equatorial regions of the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. Spring 2016 was marked by the later part of a strong negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, alongside cool neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions. September was exceptionally wet over much of Australia, contributing to a wet spring with near-average temperatures. The spring was one of the warmest on record over the southern hemisphere as a whole, with Antarctic Sea ice extent dropping to record low levels for the season.
本摘要着眼于2016年春季南半球和赤道气候模式,特别关注太平洋和印度洋盆地的大洋洲和赤道地区。2016年春季的特点是印度洋偶极子强负相位的后期,同时伴有凉爽的中性厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern振荡条件。9月,澳大利亚大部分地区异常潮湿,导致春季潮湿,气温接近平均水平。今年春天是南半球有史以来最温暖的春天之一,南极海冰范围降至创纪录的最低水平。
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引用次数: 2
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Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
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