{"title":"CSIRO CAFE-60 submissions to the World Meteorological Organization operational decadal forecasts and the international multi-model data exchange","authors":"M. Collier, T. O’Kane, V. Kitsios, P. Sandery","doi":"10.1071/es21024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es21024","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84752339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Drought, and its associated impacts, represents one of the costliest natural hazards worldwide, highlighting the need for prediction and preparedness. While advancements have been made in monitoring current droughts, prediction of onset and termination have proven to be much more challenging. This is because drought is unlike any other natural hazard and cannot be characterised by a single weather event. There is also a high degree of spatial variability in this phenomenon across the vast expanse of the Australian continent. Therefore, by characterising regionally specific expressions of drought, we may improve drought predictability. In this study, we analyse the timing of onset and termination of meteorological droughts across Australia from 1900 to 2015, as well as their local and regional climate controls. We show that meteorological drought onset has a strong seasonal signature across Australia that varies spatially, whereas termination is less seasonally restricted. Using a Random Forest modelling approach with predictor variables representative of large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena and local climate, up to 75% of the variance in the Standardised Precipitation Index during both onset and termination could be explained. This study offers support to continued development in long-lead forecasting of local and large-scale ocean/atmosphere conditions to improve drought prediction in Australia and elsewhere.
{"title":"Characterising the seasonal nature of meteorological drought onset and termination across Australia","authors":"A. Gibson, D. Verdon‐Kidd, G. Hancock","doi":"10.1071/es21009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es21009","url":null,"abstract":"Drought, and its associated impacts, represents one of the costliest natural hazards worldwide, highlighting the need for prediction and preparedness. While advancements have been made in monitoring current droughts, prediction of onset and termination have proven to be much more challenging. This is because drought is unlike any other natural hazard and cannot be characterised by a single weather event. There is also a high degree of spatial variability in this phenomenon across the vast expanse of the Australian continent. Therefore, by characterising regionally specific expressions of drought, we may improve drought predictability. In this study, we analyse the timing of onset and termination of meteorological droughts across Australia from 1900 to 2015, as well as their local and regional climate controls. We show that meteorological drought onset has a strong seasonal signature across Australia that varies spatially, whereas termination is less seasonally restricted. Using a Random Forest modelling approach with predictor variables representative of large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena and local climate, up to 75% of the variance in the Standardised Precipitation Index during both onset and termination could be explained. This study offers support to continued development in long-lead forecasting of local and large-scale ocean/atmosphere conditions to improve drought prediction in Australia and elsewhere.","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82085184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A climatology of short-period temperature variations at Australian observation sites","authors":"B. Trewin","doi":"10.1071/es21027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es21027","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88415593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. D. de Burgh-Day, C. Spillman, Grant A. Smith, C. Stevens
{"title":"Forecasting extreme marine heat events in key aquaculture regions around New Zealand","authors":"C. D. de Burgh-Day, C. Spillman, Grant A. Smith, C. Stevens","doi":"10.1071/es21012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es21012","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82426235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Mackallah, M. Chamberlain, R. Law, M. Dix, T. Ziehn, D. Bi, R. Bodman, J. Brown, P. Dobrohotoff, K. Druken, B. Evans, I. N. Harman, H. Hayashida, R. Holmes, A. Kiss, A. Lenton, Y. Liu, S. Marsland, K. Meissner, L. Menviel, S. O’Farrell, H. A. Rashid, S. Ridzwan, A. Savita, J. Srbinovsky, A. Sullivan, C. Trenham, P. Vohralik, Y-P Wang, G. Williams, M. Woodhouse, N. Yeung
{"title":"ACCESS datasets for CMIP6: methodology and idealised experiments","authors":"C. Mackallah, M. Chamberlain, R. Law, M. Dix, T. Ziehn, D. Bi, R. Bodman, J. Brown, P. Dobrohotoff, K. Druken, B. Evans, I. N. Harman, H. Hayashida, R. Holmes, A. Kiss, A. Lenton, Y. Liu, S. Marsland, K. Meissner, L. Menviel, S. O’Farrell, H. A. Rashid, S. Ridzwan, A. Savita, J. Srbinovsky, A. Sullivan, C. Trenham, P. Vohralik, Y-P Wang, G. Williams, M. Woodhouse, N. Yeung","doi":"10.1071/es21031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es21031","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"57 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84756439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Roff, I. Bermous, G. Dietachmayer, J. Fernon, J. Fraser, Wenming Lu, S. Rennie, P. Steinle, Yi‐Guo Xiao
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s ‘Australian Parallel Suite’ (APS) operational numerical weather prediction regional Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) city-based system (APS1 ACCESS-C1) was updated in August 2017 with the com-missioning of the APS2 ACCESS-C2. ACCESS-C2 runs over six regional domains. Significant upgrade changes included implementation of Unified Model 8.2 code; nesting in the 12 km resolution APS2 ACCESS-R2 regional model; and, importantly, an increased horizontal resolution from 4 to 1.5 km, enabling C2 to become the first Australian operational convection-permitting model (CPM). Traditional rainfall verification metrics and Fractions Skill Score show C2 forecast skill over ACCESS-C domains in summer and winter was generally, and in many cases, significantly better than C1. Case studies showed that C2 forecasts had better-detailed wind and precipitation fields, particularly at longer forecast ranges and higher rain rates. The improvements in C2 forecasts were principally due to its CPM ability to simulate high temporal and spatial resolution features, which continue to be of great interest to forecasters. C2 also laid the groundwork for the present day APS3 ACCESS-C forecast C3 and ensemble CE3 models and further development of higher resolution (down to 300 m) fire weather and urban models.
{"title":"APS2-ACCESS-C2: the first Australian operational NWP convection-permitting model","authors":"G. Roff, I. Bermous, G. Dietachmayer, J. Fernon, J. Fraser, Wenming Lu, S. Rennie, P. Steinle, Yi‐Guo Xiao","doi":"10.1071/es21013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es21013","url":null,"abstract":"The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s ‘Australian Parallel Suite’ (APS) operational numerical weather prediction regional Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) city-based system (APS1 ACCESS-C1) was updated in August 2017 with the com-missioning of the APS2 ACCESS-C2. ACCESS-C2 runs over six regional domains. Significant upgrade changes included implementation of Unified Model 8.2 code; nesting in the 12 km resolution APS2 ACCESS-R2 regional model; and, importantly, an increased horizontal resolution from 4 to 1.5 km, enabling C2 to become the first Australian operational convection-permitting model (CPM). Traditional rainfall verification metrics and Fractions Skill Score show C2 forecast skill over ACCESS-C domains in summer and winter was generally, and in many cases, significantly better than C1. Case studies showed that C2 forecasts had better-detailed wind and precipitation fields, particularly at longer forecast ranges and higher rain rates. The improvements in C2 forecasts were principally due to its CPM ability to simulate high temporal and spatial resolution features, which continue to be of great interest to forecasters. C2 also laid the groundwork for the present day APS3 ACCESS-C forecast C3 and ensemble CE3 models and further development of higher resolution (down to 300 m) fire weather and urban models.","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83920378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mathilde Ritman, B. Hague, Tauala Katea, Tavau Vaaia, Arona Ngari, Grant A. Smith, David Jones, Léna Tolu
{"title":"Past and future coastal flooding in Pacific Small-Island Nations: insights from the Pacific Sea Level and Geodetic Monitoring (PSLGM) Project tide gauges","authors":"Mathilde Ritman, B. Hague, Tauala Katea, Tavau Vaaia, Arona Ngari, Grant A. Smith, David Jones, Léna Tolu","doi":"10.1071/es22023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es22023","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75238549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Wedd, O. Alves, C. D. de Burgh-Day, Christopher Down, Morwenna Griffiths, H. Hendon, D. Hudson, Shuhua Li, E. Lim, A. Marshall, Li Shi, Paul Smith, Grant A. Smith, C. Spillman, Guomin Wang, M. Wheeler, Hailin Yan, Yonghong Yin, G. Young, Mei Zhao, Yin Xiao, Xiaobing Zhou
{"title":"ACCESS-S2: the upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system","authors":"R. Wedd, O. Alves, C. D. de Burgh-Day, Christopher Down, Morwenna Griffiths, H. Hendon, D. Hudson, Shuhua Li, E. Lim, A. Marshall, Li Shi, Paul Smith, Grant A. Smith, C. Spillman, Guomin Wang, M. Wheeler, Hailin Yan, Yonghong Yin, G. Young, Mei Zhao, Yin Xiao, Xiaobing Zhou","doi":"10.1071/es22026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es22026","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89077664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Synoptic-scale atmospheric cyclones in the South-East Tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) and their relation to IOD variability","authors":"A. Kavi, J. Kämpf","doi":"10.1071/es22020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es22020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79923595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Simulations of the Waroona fire using the coupled atmosphere–fire model ACCESS-Fire","authors":"M. Peace, J. Greenslade, H. Ye, J. Kepert","doi":"10.1071/es22013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1071/es22013","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55419,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89465042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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