Outsourcing pest and disease control (PDC) has grown rapidly worldwide, especially in developing countries. Although numerous studies have investigated various advantages of outsourcing PDC, little is known about its impact on pesticide expenditure. This study addresses the gap by estimating the impact of outsourcing PDC on pesticide expenditure using data collected from 448 rice farmers in China. We employ an endogenous treatment regression (ETR) model and an instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) model to investigate the homogenous and heterogeneous impacts of outsourcing PDC, respectively. The results estimated by the ETR model show that outsourcing PDC decreases total pesticide expenditure. The reduction in herbicide expenditure due to outsourcing PDC is greater than the reduction in insecticide expenditure. The results estimated by the IVQR model reveal that the pesticide expenditure reduction effect of outsourcing PDC is larger among farmers with higher pesticide expenditure. Our findings generally suggest that it is necessary to take outsourcing PDC into consideration when designing policies to promote pesticide expenditure reduction and protect the ecological environment and human health.
{"title":"Can outsourcing pest and disease control help reduce pesticide expenditure? Evidence from rice farmers","authors":"Pengcheng Wang, Wanglin Ma, Mengling Diao","doi":"10.1002/agr.21969","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21969","url":null,"abstract":"Outsourcing pest and disease control (PDC) has grown rapidly worldwide, especially in developing countries. Although numerous studies have investigated various advantages of outsourcing PDC, little is known about its impact on pesticide expenditure. This study addresses the gap by estimating the impact of outsourcing PDC on pesticide expenditure using data collected from 448 rice farmers in China. We employ an endogenous treatment regression (ETR) model and an instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) model to investigate the homogenous and heterogeneous impacts of outsourcing PDC, respectively. The results estimated by the ETR model show that outsourcing PDC decreases total pesticide expenditure. The reduction in herbicide expenditure due to outsourcing PDC is greater than the reduction in insecticide expenditure. The results estimated by the IVQR model reveal that the pesticide expenditure reduction effect of outsourcing PDC is larger among farmers with higher pesticide expenditure. Our findings generally suggest that it is necessary to take outsourcing PDC into consideration when designing policies to promote pesticide expenditure reduction and protect the ecological environment and human health.","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141886568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qi Kang, Carlos E. Carpio, Manuel Garcia, Chenggang Wang, Tullaya Boonsaeng, Darren Hudson
China's rapidly growing food market offers opportunities for foreign beef producers, thanks to its sizable population and increasing income levels. This study examined Chinese consumers' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for credence attributes of beef from the domestic market and other large exporting countries. Three beef cuts were considered: steak, brisket, and tongue. Data were collected from an online survey incorporating choice experiments (CEs) of 2016 consumers from China in 2021. Each respondent was presented with three beef alternatives that differed in price, country of origin, food safety, and production certifications, and also included a “no purchase” option. Chinese consumers' beef selections in the CEs were analyzed using a mixed logit model in WTP space. Results indicate that the type of cut does not influence Chinese consumers' evaluation of country of origin and credence attributes. Moreover, results show that Chinese consumers strongly prefer and are willing to pay more for domestic beef than imported beef. Beef from New Zealand had the highest WTP value among all the exporting countries, followed by Argentina, Australia, Canada, Uruguay, Brazil, and the United States. Also, enhanced food safety, Organic, and Green Food certifications had positive WTP values. The findings of this study offer evidence that Chinese consumers prefer safe and quality‐assured beef products. This information can be used by beef producers targeting the Chinese market to design production and marketing strategies.
{"title":"Chinese consumers' preferences for imported beef products","authors":"Qi Kang, Carlos E. Carpio, Manuel Garcia, Chenggang Wang, Tullaya Boonsaeng, Darren Hudson","doi":"10.1002/agr.21968","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21968","url":null,"abstract":"China's rapidly growing food market offers opportunities for foreign beef producers, thanks to its sizable population and increasing income levels. This study examined Chinese consumers' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for credence attributes of beef from the domestic market and other large exporting countries. Three beef cuts were considered: steak, brisket, and tongue. Data were collected from an online survey incorporating choice experiments (CEs) of 2016 consumers from China in 2021. Each respondent was presented with three beef alternatives that differed in price, country of origin, food safety, and production certifications, and also included a “no purchase” option. Chinese consumers' beef selections in the CEs were analyzed using a mixed logit model in WTP space. Results indicate that the type of cut does not influence Chinese consumers' evaluation of country of origin and credence attributes. Moreover, results show that Chinese consumers strongly prefer and are willing to pay more for domestic beef than imported beef. Beef from New Zealand had the highest WTP value among all the exporting countries, followed by Argentina, Australia, Canada, Uruguay, Brazil, and the United States. Also, enhanced food safety, Organic, and Green Food certifications had positive WTP values. The findings of this study offer evidence that Chinese consumers prefer safe and quality‐assured beef products. This information can be used by beef producers targeting the Chinese market to design production and marketing strategies.","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
World markets for quality differentiated agri‐food products are highly competitive, presenting significant challenges for firms aiming to compete effectively. Government agencies and business organizations often implement various export promotion policies to address these challenges. This paper explores the role of Denomination of Origin Regulatory Councils in the export activities of Spanish wineries. Hypotheses are developed based on the Resource‐Based View and Institutional‐Based View, considering divergent theoretical predictions. Empirical findings from a comprehensive sample of Spanish wineries across all Denominations of Origin reveal positive associations between wineries' resources and Regulatory Councils' activities with export performance. However, these relationships vary depending on the specific resource or activity. These findings are consistent across different measures of export performance, highlighting the intricate relationships between institutions like Regulatory Councils and the internationalization of member firms.
{"title":"Disentangling the relationships between denomination of origin regulatory councils activities and Spanish wineries' export performance","authors":"Nicolás Depetris‐Chauvin, Marta Fernández‐Olmos","doi":"10.1002/agr.21966","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21966","url":null,"abstract":"World markets for quality differentiated agri‐food products are highly competitive, presenting significant challenges for firms aiming to compete effectively. Government agencies and business organizations often implement various export promotion policies to address these challenges. This paper explores the role of Denomination of Origin Regulatory Councils in the export activities of Spanish wineries. Hypotheses are developed based on the Resource‐Based View and Institutional‐Based View, considering divergent theoretical predictions. Empirical findings from a comprehensive sample of Spanish wineries across all Denominations of Origin reveal positive associations between wineries' resources and Regulatory Councils' activities with export performance. However, these relationships vary depending on the specific resource or activity. These findings are consistent across different measures of export performance, highlighting the intricate relationships between institutions like Regulatory Councils and the internationalization of member firms.","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nucleus outgrower schemes are contractual arrangements where well‐resourced large‐scale farmers (nucleus farmers) are empowered by development support agencies to take charge of smallholder farmers, by providing them with market access and the necessary training on agronomic practices and farm inputs for production. In this study, we examine the impact of participation in outgrower scheme on technology adoption and farm productivity, using data from 634 smallholder maize farmers in Northern Ghana. We use the linear regression with endogenous treatment effects model to account for both observable and unobservable selection bias. The results reveal positive and significant marginal effects of outgrower scheme participation on technology adoption and maize yields. Outgrower scheme participants applied 6% and 82% more inorganic fertilizer and weedicides, respectively, than nonparticipants. Maize yield increased by about 3% for the participants more than nonparticipants. The findings also show that factors such as distance to market, distance to nucleus farmers' satellite office, nucleus outgrower scheme awareness, input price, and farmer‐based organization significantly influence outgrower scheme participation decisions, as well as technology adoption and maize yields.
{"title":"Do outgrower schemes enhance technology adoption and productivity? Evidence from maize farmers in Northern Ghana","authors":"D. T. Konja, A. Abdulai","doi":"10.1002/agr.21967","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21967","url":null,"abstract":"Nucleus outgrower schemes are contractual arrangements where well‐resourced large‐scale farmers (nucleus farmers) are empowered by development support agencies to take charge of smallholder farmers, by providing them with market access and the necessary training on agronomic practices and farm inputs for production. In this study, we examine the impact of participation in outgrower scheme on technology adoption and farm productivity, using data from 634 smallholder maize farmers in Northern Ghana. We use the linear regression with endogenous treatment effects model to account for both observable and unobservable selection bias. The results reveal positive and significant marginal effects of outgrower scheme participation on technology adoption and maize yields. Outgrower scheme participants applied 6% and 82% more inorganic fertilizer and weedicides, respectively, than nonparticipants. Maize yield increased by about 3% for the participants more than nonparticipants. The findings also show that factors such as distance to market, distance to nucleus farmers' satellite office, nucleus outgrower scheme awareness, input price, and farmer‐based organization significantly influence outgrower scheme participation decisions, as well as technology adoption and maize yields.","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141649731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jerome Dumortier, Amani Elobeid, Miguel Carriquiry
Latin America is a major agricultural producer with important natural resources. Efforts have been made to protect sensitive areas but are hindered by agricultural trade disruptions outside the control of individual countries due to globally integrated crop markets. This analysis assesses the effects of two trade shocks, that is, the war in Ukraine and vehicle decarbonization in the United States (US), on biodiversity and water resources in Latin America. Results show that an increase in maize and wheat exports from the region triggered by the war in Ukraine negatively affects biodiversity in Brazil and leads to cropland expansion into drought‐prone areas in Argentina and Chile. For the case of reduced crop exports from Latin America due to US vehicle decarbonization and the corresponding shift away from US maize ethanol, the pressure on arable land in areas of high biodiversity and water stress is eased. As opposed to agricultural carbon emissions, which have global impacts, biodiversity and water issues have a strong local and regional significance. Regulatory frameworks aiming to protect these regions should be forward looking to detect and shield vulnerable areas from future threats. Other changes affecting global agriculture and trade, for example, sustainable aviation fuels in the US or the European Farm‐to‐Fork policy, need to be anticipated for effective policies in Latin America [EconLit Citations: Q13, Q25, Q34, Q56].
{"title":"Impacts of geopolitics and policy on Latin American biodiversity and water resources","authors":"Jerome Dumortier, Amani Elobeid, Miguel Carriquiry","doi":"10.1002/agr.21965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21965","url":null,"abstract":"Latin America is a major agricultural producer with important natural resources. Efforts have been made to protect sensitive areas but are hindered by agricultural trade disruptions outside the control of individual countries due to globally integrated crop markets. This analysis assesses the effects of two trade shocks, that is, the war in Ukraine and vehicle decarbonization in the United States (US), on biodiversity and water resources in Latin America. Results show that an increase in maize and wheat exports from the region triggered by the war in Ukraine negatively affects biodiversity in Brazil and leads to cropland expansion into drought‐prone areas in Argentina and Chile. For the case of reduced crop exports from Latin America due to US vehicle decarbonization and the corresponding shift away from US maize ethanol, the pressure on arable land in areas of high biodiversity and water stress is eased. As opposed to agricultural carbon emissions, which have global impacts, biodiversity and water issues have a strong local and regional significance. Regulatory frameworks aiming to protect these regions should be forward looking to detect and shield vulnerable areas from future threats. Other changes affecting global agriculture and trade, for example, sustainable aviation fuels in the US or the European Farm‐to‐Fork policy, need to be anticipated for effective policies in Latin America [EconLit Citations: Q13, Q25, Q34, Q56].","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141584725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had profound consequences for the global economy. As both countries are major commodity exporters, the food value chain was also affected. This study investigates the impact of the invasion on stock prices, profitability and sentiments of agribusinesses along the food supply chain by using an event study, financial data, and a sentiment analysis of annual reports. Overall, the findings show that firms in the food value chain were negatively impacted, with regional and sector‐specific differences. Agribusiness firms in Europe and Japan were more negatively impacted by the war than those in the United States. Stock prices of Brewers, Packaged Food and Meats, Soft drinks, and Tobacco firms were negatively impacted by the invasion, while other sectors experienced no or little impact on stock prices. Fertilizers and Agrochemicals firms overall achieved a higher profitability in 2022 compared to previous years. [EconLit Citations: G01, G12, E44, Q01].
{"title":"The impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on stock prices, profits and perceptions in the food supply chain","authors":"Julia Höhler, Ivo Harmens, Alfons Oude Lansink","doi":"10.1002/agr.21964","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21964","url":null,"abstract":"The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had profound consequences for the global economy. As both countries are major commodity exporters, the food value chain was also affected. This study investigates the impact of the invasion on stock prices, profitability and sentiments of agribusinesses along the food supply chain by using an event study, financial data, and a sentiment analysis of annual reports. Overall, the findings show that firms in the food value chain were negatively impacted, with regional and sector‐specific differences. Agribusiness firms in Europe and Japan were more negatively impacted by the war than those in the United States. Stock prices of Brewers, Packaged Food and Meats, Soft drinks, and Tobacco firms were negatively impacted by the invasion, while other sectors experienced no or little impact on stock prices. Fertilizers and Agrochemicals firms overall achieved a higher profitability in 2022 compared to previous years. [EconLit Citations: G01, G12, E44, Q01].","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141505792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the relationship among animal‐based meat and plant‐based meat alternatives (PBMAs) using a basket‐and‐expenditure‐based choice experiment. In particular, we examine whether animal‐based meat products are substitutes or complements with PBMAs. Further, we incorporate consumer beliefs about their diet and environmental attitudes into the analysis. What we find is that PBMAs are not substitutes but rather complements or independent from one another. We also find that environmental and diet beliefs positively contribute to consumer utility for plant‐based alternatives. This study also demonstrates the strength of a basket‐based approach to examining complex consumer choices that require both discrete and continuous decisions in food purchasing.
{"title":"Are all meats substitutes? A basket‐and‐expenditure‐based approach","authors":"Clinton L. Neill, Logan L. Britton","doi":"10.1002/agr.21963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21963","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the relationship among animal‐based meat and plant‐based meat alternatives (PBMAs) using a basket‐and‐expenditure‐based choice experiment. In particular, we examine whether animal‐based meat products are substitutes or complements with PBMAs. Further, we incorporate consumer beliefs about their diet and environmental attitudes into the analysis. What we find is that PBMAs are not substitutes but rather complements or independent from one another. We also find that environmental and diet beliefs positively contribute to consumer utility for plant‐based alternatives. This study also demonstrates the strength of a basket‐based approach to examining complex consumer choices that require both discrete and continuous decisions in food purchasing.","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141529312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicolas Gatti, Miguel I. Gómez, Ruth E. Bennett, Scott Sillett, Justine Bowe, Jie Li
Eco‐labels inform consumers about the sustainable attributes of a product, but consumer face challenges to differentiate and select for specific attributes. Certification programs are similarly challenged to incentivize adoption of sustainable practices in product supply chains when consumer ability to differentiate sustainable attributes is low. This study investigates consumers' Willingness to Pay (WTP) for different environmental attributes of coffee production, and whether attributes that conserve biodiversity and limit agrochemical usage are substitutes or complements. We designed and implemented a hypothetical coffee choice experiment combining coffee farm vegetation management attributes that impact biodiversity (conventional monoculture, shade‐grown, or “Bird Friendly” systems that conserve wildlife habitat) and chemical input (conventional, pesticide‐free, or organic) attributes. We found that consumers think of biodiversity and agrochemical management attributes as sustainability substitutes and have the highest WTP for pesticide‐free and organic attributes. Consumer groups with strong concern about the future of the environment had high WTP for all environmental attributes, but still considered the attributes to be substitutes. Our results suggest that eco‐label programs with biodiversity and agrochemical attributes, such as the Smithsonian Bird Friendly® coffee certification, could increase market participation by simplifying environmental sustainability messaging, simplifying farm‐level certification requirements, and targeting environmentally concerned consumers. [EconLit Citations: D12, Q01, Q13, L66].
{"title":"Are agrochemical‐free and biodiversity‐friendly attributes substitutes or complements? Evidence from a coffee choice experiment","authors":"Nicolas Gatti, Miguel I. Gómez, Ruth E. Bennett, Scott Sillett, Justine Bowe, Jie Li","doi":"10.1002/agr.21955","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21955","url":null,"abstract":"Eco‐labels inform consumers about the sustainable attributes of a product, but consumer face challenges to differentiate and select for specific attributes. Certification programs are similarly challenged to incentivize adoption of sustainable practices in product supply chains when consumer ability to differentiate sustainable attributes is low. This study investigates consumers' Willingness to Pay (WTP) for different environmental attributes of coffee production, and whether attributes that conserve biodiversity and limit agrochemical usage are substitutes or complements. We designed and implemented a hypothetical coffee choice experiment combining coffee farm vegetation management attributes that impact biodiversity (conventional monoculture, shade‐grown, or “Bird Friendly” systems that conserve wildlife habitat) and chemical input (conventional, pesticide‐free, or organic) attributes. We found that consumers think of biodiversity and agrochemical management attributes as sustainability substitutes and have the highest WTP for pesticide‐free and organic attributes. Consumer groups with strong concern about the future of the environment had high WTP for all environmental attributes, but still considered the attributes to be substitutes. Our results suggest that eco‐label programs with biodiversity and agrochemical attributes, such as the Smithsonian Bird Friendly® coffee certification, could increase market participation by simplifying environmental sustainability messaging, simplifying farm‐level certification requirements, and targeting environmentally concerned consumers. [EconLit Citations: D12, Q01, Q13, L66].","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141505793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dejan Živkov, Boris Kuzman, Papić‐Blagojević Nataša
Biofuel production is one of the key topics in today's world, which inevitably raises the question of the relationship between ethanol and agricultural commodities. The nexus between corn and ethanol is well known in the literature, but the link involving other biofuel feedstocks is relatively poorly explored. Therefore, this paper research the dynamic nexus between ethanol and five agricultural commodities using the cDCC‐FIAPARCH model, while two additional analyses complement the main results. Dynamic conditional correlation between ethanol and corn is the highest and reaches an average of 50%, while wheat and soybean follow with 31%. A rolling regression analysis reveals the relationship between conditional volatilities and conditional correlations, where the assets with lower conditional volatility have a more significant impact on conditional correlation. The findings may have several practical implications for agents working with ethanol and agricultural commodities, such as food security assessment, efficiency of supply chains and portfolio construction. [EconLit Citations: C61, O13, Q16].
{"title":"Dynamic interdependence between ethanol and biofuel‐related agricultural commodities—cDCC‐FIAPARCH approach","authors":"Dejan Živkov, Boris Kuzman, Papić‐Blagojević Nataša","doi":"10.1002/agr.21959","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21959","url":null,"abstract":"Biofuel production is one of the key topics in today's world, which inevitably raises the question of the relationship between ethanol and agricultural commodities. The nexus between corn and ethanol is well known in the literature, but the link involving other biofuel feedstocks is relatively poorly explored. Therefore, this paper research the dynamic nexus between ethanol and five agricultural commodities using the cDCC‐FIAPARCH model, while two additional analyses complement the main results. Dynamic conditional correlation between ethanol and corn is the highest and reaches an average of 50%, while wheat and soybean follow with 31%. A rolling regression analysis reveals the relationship between conditional volatilities and conditional correlations, where the assets with lower conditional volatility have a more significant impact on conditional correlation. The findings may have several practical implications for agents working with ethanol and agricultural commodities, such as food security assessment, efficiency of supply chains and portfolio construction. [EconLit Citations: C61, O13, Q16].","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141339770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The vegetable market experiences significant price fluctuations due to the complex interplay of trend, cyclical, seasonal, and irregular factors. This study takes Korean green onions as an example and employs the Christiano–Fitzgerald filter and the CensusX‐13 seasonal adjustment methods to decompose its price into four components: trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular fluctuations. To estimate the price volatility and forecast future prices, we apply an ARMA‐GARCH model and use various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of ARMA(1, 2)‐GARCH(1, 1) model in modeling and forecasting the seasonally adjusted price of Korean green onions. Our study provides an important reference for expanding research in the field of vegetable price fluctuations and formulating strategies for stabilizing prices. [EconLit Citations: Q11, C22, Q02].
{"title":"Volatility analysis and forecasting of vegetable prices using an ARMA‐GARCH model: An application of the CF filter and seasonal adjustment method to Korean green onions","authors":"Yiyang Qiao, Byeong‐il Ahn","doi":"10.1002/agr.21958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/agr.21958","url":null,"abstract":"The vegetable market experiences significant price fluctuations due to the complex interplay of trend, cyclical, seasonal, and irregular factors. This study takes Korean green onions as an example and employs the Christiano–Fitzgerald filter and the CensusX‐13 seasonal adjustment methods to decompose its price into four components: trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular fluctuations. To estimate the price volatility and forecast future prices, we apply an ARMA‐GARCH model and use various statistical measures to assess the prediction accuracy. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of ARMA(1, 2)‐GARCH(1, 1) model in modeling and forecasting the seasonally adjusted price of Korean green onions. Our study provides an important reference for expanding research in the field of vegetable price fluctuations and formulating strategies for stabilizing prices. [EconLit Citations: Q11, C22, Q02].","PeriodicalId":55544,"journal":{"name":"Agribusiness","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141365332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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