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Examining the impact of trading volume on liquidity and prices in China's soybean complex 研究交易量对中国大豆市场流动性和价格的影响
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21887
Yuanyuan Xu, Jian Li, Linjie Wang, Xiaoli Etienne
This paper presents liquidity measures in high resolution and investigates the impact of trading volume on market liquidity and prices in China's soybean complex markets. We document a U-shaped distribution of volume and spreads over the course of a trading day. Quantile regression results show that trading volume tends to tighten bid-ask spreads but widen spreads in the lower tail. We further find that the impact of trading volume on prices is significantly more pronounced during the opening hours, possibly indicating a higher prevalence of informed trading. Additionally, smaller-sized transactions have a disproportionately larger impact on prices compared to large-sized orders, a possible indication that stealth trading, that is, shaving large orders into smaller slices to conceal private information, presents in China's soybean complex.
本文提出了高分辨率的流动性指标,并研究了交易量对中国大豆综合市场流动性和价格的影响。我们记录了一个交易日内交易量和价差的 U 型分布。量子回归结果表明,交易量往往会收窄买卖价差,但在尾部会扩大价差。我们进一步发现,交易量对价格的影响在开盘时段更为明显,这可能表明知情交易更为普遍。此外,与大额订单相比,小规模交易对价格的影响更大,这可能表明中国大豆市场存在隐形交易,即把大额订单切成小块以掩盖私人信息。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the role of interest rates, macroeconomic environment, agricultural cycle, and gender on loan demand in the agricultural sector: Evidence from Mali 探讨利率、宏观经济环境、农业周期和性别对农业部门贷款需求的影响:马里的证据
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21891
Tim Ölkers, Oliver Mußhoff

Formal credit plays an important role for the development of the agriculture sector in developing countries because many farmers are characterized as liquidity constrained. Access to credit can increase farmers' purchasing power for inputs and agricultural technology, thus raising the overall productivity. Farmers in Mali are particularly vulnerable to shocks, such as heavy precipitation events. Access to liquidity to increase the resilience of the agricultural sector is essential. Therefore, higher financing volumes are required, which make the analysis of loan demand in agriculture of interest. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of the interest rate, the macroeconomic environment, the agricultural cycle and the gender of the farmer on the loan demand in the agricultural sector from a country in the Sahel. Unique and comprehensive loan data at the farm level, provided by a commercial Malian bank, is used for this analysis. The analysis covers the period from 2010 to 2020. Two different estimation strategies are combined. First, an ordinary least square regression is applied with the granted loan amount as the dependent variable. Second, the machine learning technique, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, is applied to select the most relevant features to be used as explanatory variables in the estimation. The results reveal that the interest rate, the gross value added, the farmer's gender as well as the agricultural cycle have statistically significant effects on the granted loan demand in agriculture. These results are of interest to policymakers, who deal with financial inclusion as well as market failures, and agricultural financial institutions who could incorporate such information in the design of future loan products to stimulate farmers' loan demand, especially for female farmers. [EconLit Citations: G20, G21, O13, O16, Q14, Q18].

正规信贷对发展中国家农业部门的发展起着重要作用,因为许多农民的流动性受到限制。获得信贷可以提高农民对投入和农业技术的购买力,从而提高整体生产率。马里的农民特别容易受到暴雨等冲击的影响。获得流动资金以提高农业部门的抗灾能力至关重要。因此,需要更高的融资量,这就需要对农业贷款需求进行分析。本文旨在从萨赫勒地区的一个国家出发,实证研究利率、宏观经济环境、农业周期和农民性别对农业部门贷款需求的影响。本分析采用了马里一家商业银行提供的农场层面独特而全面的贷款数据。分析时间跨度为 2010 年至 2020 年。结合了两种不同的估算策略。首先,以发放的贷款额为因变量,采用普通最小二乘法回归。其次,应用机器学习技术、最小绝对收缩和选择算子来选择最相关的特征作为估计中的解释变量。结果显示,利率、总附加值、农民性别以及农业周期对农业贷款需求有显著的统计学影响。这些结果对处理金融包容性和市场失灵问题的政策制定者和农业金融机构很有意义,他们可以将这些信息纳入未来贷款产品的设计中,以刺激农民的贷款需求,尤其是女性农民的贷款需求。[经济学引文:G20、G21、O13、O16、Q14、Q18]。
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引用次数: 0
US agricultural exports and the 2022 Mississippi River drought 美国农产品出口与 2022 年密西西比河干旱
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21880
Sandro Steinbach, Xiting Zhuang
This paper investigates the impact of the 2022 Mississippi River drought on agricultural trade using counterfactual evaluation methods and detailed trade data at the US port level. The study examines how the drought disrupted agricultural shipments out of Louisiana ports and whether the disruption led to trade diversion to other ports. Our findings reveal that shipments out of Louisiana ports were 3.9% or $560 million below the counterfactual between July 2022 and January 2023. In addition, the dynamic treatment estimates provide evidence of immediate trade recovery after the drought receded in October 2022, indicating that the impact of the drought was short-lived. Wheat exports were the most affected, experiencing a reduction in shipments from Louisiana ports of $150 million and being diverted to US ports on the West Coast. In contrast, corn and soybeans did not experience lasting trade destruction or diversion to other ports. Our analysis also reveals that export prices increased significantly above the counterfactual level at Louisiana ports, suggesting that the drought impacted the supply and export dynamics of agricultural commodities. In conclusion, this paper provides valuable insights into the short-run implications of natural disasters on agricultural trade. [EconLit Citations: F14, Q17].
本文利用反事实评估方法和美国港口层面的详细贸易数据,研究了 2022 年密西西比河干旱对农产品贸易的影响。研究探讨了干旱如何干扰了路易斯安那州港口的农产品运输,以及这种干扰是否导致贸易转向其他港口。我们的研究结果表明,2022 年 7 月至 2023 年 1 月期间,路易斯安那州港口的出货量比反事实低 3.9% 或 5.6 亿美元。此外,在 2022 年 10 月旱灾消退后,动态处理估计值提供了贸易立即恢复的证据,表明旱灾的影响是短暂的。小麦出口受到的影响最大,从路易斯安那州港口出口的货物减少了 1.5 亿美元,并被转运到美国西海岸的港口。相比之下,玉米和大豆的贸易没有受到持续破坏,也没有被转运到其他港口。我们的分析还显示,路易斯安那港口的出口价格大幅上涨,高于反事实水平,这表明干旱影响了农产品的供应和出口动态。总之,本文就自然灾害对农产品贸易的短期影响提供了有价值的见解。[经济学引文:F14, Q17]。
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引用次数: 0
Could trust narrow the intention-behavior gap in eco-friendly food consumption? Evidence from China 信任能否缩小环保食品消费的意向-行为差距?来自中国的证据
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-27 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21886
Rao Yuan, Shaosheng Jin, Wen Lin
There exists a potential gap between individual intention to purchase eco-products and their actual purchase behaviors, which contributes to low eco-friendly consumption. The study investigates the intention-behavior gap in eco-friendly food consumption, and how consumer trust affects the gap. We focus on consumer trust in eco-friendly food regulator, manufacturer, certifier, and farmer. Evidence from Chinese consumers reveals that individuals with low trust in the certifier have high intention to purchase green food but fail to make actual purchases. Trust in the manufacturer is positively associated with actual purchases of organic food regardless of intention. We also find that trust exerts the greater impact in bridging the intention-behavior gap among female, younger, more educated, and more environmentally conscious consumers. Our findings highlight the importance of consumer trust in the certifier and manufacturer. Implications for promoting eco-friendly food consumption are discussed.
个人购买环保产品的意向与实际购买行为之间可能存在差距,这也是导致低环保消费的原因之一。本研究调查了生态友好型食品消费中的意向-行为差距,以及消费者信任如何影响这一差距。我们重点关注消费者对环保食品监管机构、生产商、认证机构和农户的信任。来自中国消费者的证据显示,对认证机构信任度较低的人有较高的购买绿色食品的意愿,但却没有实际购买。无论购买意向如何,对生产商的信任与实际购买有机食品呈正相关。我们还发现,信任在缩小女性、年轻、受教育程度较高和环保意识较强的消费者的意向-行为差距方面发挥着更大的作用。我们的研究结果凸显了消费者对认证机构和生产商信任的重要性。我们还讨论了促进生态友好型食品消费的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Neighborhood effect, virtual social networks, and farmers' social e-commerce participation behavior 邻里效应、虚拟社交网络与农民的社交电商参与行为
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21885
Chan Wang, Xiao Wu, Tinggui Chen
The development of social e-commerce can integrate the production, circulation, and sales of agricultural products; realize the digitalization of the agricultural production process; and promote farmers' savings and profits. On the basis of the stimulus–organism–response theory and the embedding theories, microsurvey data of 302 farmers regarding the winter jujube production area of the Dali facility in the Shaanxi Province were used to empirically test the impact of neighborhood effect (NE) and virtual social networks on farmers' participation in social e-commerce, and the interaction effect of the two aspects. Additionally, we analyzed its mechanism under the framework of “social networks-farmers' cognition-social e-commerce participation behavior (SEPB).” The research results are as follows. First, neighborhood participation, social software friends, and information release have a significant positive impact on farmers' SEPB, whereas information reception has a negative impact. Second, the empirical results considering the comprehensive effects of various variables show that NE, network communication, and network participation (NP) can all promote farmers' participation in social e-commerce, and NP is complementary to NE. Third, mechanism analysis shows that NE and NP produce partial mediating effect and complete mediating effect, respectively, through self-competence recognition (SR), which in turn positively impacts the SEPB. In the heterogeneity analysis, for farmers with a plantation area of less than or equal to 0.447 ha, SR has a partial mediating effect on the process of NE affecting SEPB, whereas the motivating factor is NP. In terms of labor force structure, only the percentage of nonagricultural workers exceeds 0.253, NE and NP affect SEPB through SR. This study can provide a reference for farmers to rationally use their social networks, and guide the formulation of social e-commerce support policies at the national level.
社会化电子商务的发展可以实现农产品生产、流通、销售一体化,实现农业生产过程数字化,促进农民增收节支。本文以刺激-机体-反应理论和嵌入理论为基础,通过对陕西省大荔设施冬枣产区 302 位农民的微观调查数据,实证检验了邻里效应(NE)和虚拟社交网络对农民参与社交电子商务的影响,以及两方面的交互效应。并在 "社交网络-农民认知-社交电商参与行为(SEPB)"的框架下分析了其作用机制。研究结果如下。首先,邻里参与、社交软件好友和信息发布对农民的 SEPB 有显著的正向影响,而信息接收则有负向影响。第二,考虑各变量综合效应的实证结果表明,邻里参与、网络交流、网络参与(NP)都能促进农民参与社交电子商务,且网络参与与邻里参与互补。第三,机制分析表明,NE和NP分别通过自我能力认可(SR)产生部分中介效应和完全中介效应,进而对SEPB产生积极影响。在异质性分析中,对于种植面积小于或等于 0.447 公顷的农户,SR 对 NE 影响 SEPB 的过程具有部分中介效应,而激励因素则是 NP。在劳动力结构方面,只有非农业劳动力比例超过 0.253,NE 和 NP 通过 SR 影响 SEPB。本研究可为农民合理利用社会网络提供参考,并指导国家层面社会电商扶持政策的制定。
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引用次数: 0
Does crop insurance ensure food security for Indian farmers? Evidence from a nationally representative survey 农作物保险能否确保印度农民的粮食安全?来自全国代表性调查的证据
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-18 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21884
Nusrat Akber, Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, Ashok K. Mishra
This study examines the impact of farm households' decision to adopt crop insurance and its effect on food security. Using the National Sample Survey Office's 77th round of data (2019–2020) from Indian farming households, the endogenous switching regression results confirm that insuring crops against production risks increases food security (as measured by higher consumption expenditures and net farm income). Specifically, findings show that farming households would decrease consumption expenditures by 15% and net farm income by 26% if they had not adopted crop insurance. Similarly, the noninsured families would have 23% higher consumption expenditures and 31% higher net farm income if they had insured crops. However, we find heterogeneity in welfare impacts because large farmers reap more benefits than smallholders. Policy implications from this study call for increased awareness of insurance programs, educating farmers about crop insurance schemes, and an effective institutional framework to reduce heterogeneity in insurance benefits. [EconLit Citations: Q13, Q18, O53].
本研究探讨了农户决定采用农作物保险的影响及其对粮食安全的影响。利用全国抽样调查办公室的第 77 轮印度农户数据(2019-2020 年),内生转换回归结果证实,针对生产风险投保农作物保险会提高粮食安全(以更高的消费支出和农业净收入来衡量)。具体而言,研究结果表明,如果农户不采用农作物保险,他们的消费支出将减少 15%,农业净收入将减少 26%。同样,如果未投保的家庭投保了农作物保险,他们的消费支出将增加 23%,农业净收入将增加 31%。然而,我们发现福利影响存在异质性,因为大农户比小农户获得更多利益。本研究的政策含义要求提高对保险计划的认识,对农民进行有关农作物保险计划的教育,并建立有效的制度框架以减少保险收益的异质性。[经济学引文:Q13, Q18, O53]。
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引用次数: 0
Identification and assessment of supply chain risks: The case of food hubs 识别和评估供应链风险:粮食中心案例
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21877
Tatevik Avetisyan Artoonian, R. Brent Ross, Robert S. Shupp
The supply chain risk management literature highlights the importance of ex-ante identification and assessment of risks to ensure continuity of firms, in particular, and the high performance of supply chains in which they operate, in general. Supply chain disruptions are harmful and costly for firms. The risk of such disruptions can be particularly consequential for firms in emerging industries that lack resources and for which dominant organizational and supply chain designs do not yet exist. Within local and regional food supply chains, food hubs are nascent enterprises coordinating these supply chains. Building off the existing supply chain risk management literature, this study identifies and assesses the perceived supply chain risks faced by U.S. food hubs. The study employs an exploratory sequential mixed methods research design and the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis methodology for this purpose. The results show risks related to imbalances in food supply and demand, logistical delays, human resources, and infrastructure capacity limitations were perceived to be the highest priority supply chain risks for the U.S. food hubs before the COVID-19 pandemic. The study further provides insights on association between food hub characteristics and risk, as well as association between risk preferences and risk perceptions of food hub managers [EconLit Citations: L29 Other (Firm Supply Chain Risk Management)].
供应链风险管理文献强调了预先识别和评估风险的重要性,以确保公司的连续性,特别是他们运营的供应链的高绩效。供应链中断对企业来说是有害的,而且代价高昂。这种中断的风险对于缺乏资源的新兴行业的公司来说尤其重要,因为它们还不存在主导的组织和供应链设计。在地方和区域食品供应链中,食品中心是协调这些供应链的新兴企业。在现有供应链风险管理文献的基础上,本研究确定并评估了美国食品中心面临的感知供应链风险。为此,本研究采用探索性序贯混合方法研究设计和失效模式与影响分析方法。结果显示,在COVID-19大流行之前,与食品供需失衡、物流延误、人力资源和基础设施能力限制相关的风险被认为是美国食品中心最优先考虑的供应链风险。该研究进一步揭示了食品中心特征与风险之间的关系,以及食品中心管理者的风险偏好与风险感知之间的关系[EconLit引文:L29 Other(企业供应链风险管理)]。
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引用次数: 0
Examining environmental proactivity in the Spanish wine industry: The moderating role of size 考察西班牙葡萄酒业的环境主动性:规模的调节作用
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21882
Marcos Carchano, Inmaculada Carrasco, Angela González
The value of proactive environmental strategies to achieve and maintain competitive advantages in the business sphere has been widely acknowledged in recent years. However, mixed results can still be found regarding the determinants and consequences of the implementation of such practices. This study investigates the determinants of environmental proactivity in Spanish wineries, focusing on the role of company size in linking internal motivations and stakeholder pressure with proactive environmental strategy using the natural resource-based view. So far, no research of this type has been carried out for the Spanish wine sector. A structural equation model is proposed based on partial least squares applied to a sample of 251 wine companies to evaluate both the direct relationships and the moderating effect. The study identifies internal motivations, community pressure, and regulatory pressure as determinants of proactive environmental strategy. Company characteristics play an essential role in decision-making when dealing with environmental issues proactively. Small companies tend to be more influenced by internal motivations, while larger companies are driven to undertake environmental actions based on external pressures. Additionally, we found that managers who take a proactive approach to environmental protection can achieve financial rewards. These findings provide important implications for both policymakers and managers by offering new theoretical and empirical insight into how proactive environmental strategy affects financial performance in the case of Spain's wine companies. [EconLit Citations: O31, Q55, C30].
近年来,积极主动的环保策略对在商业领域取得和保持竞争优势的价值已得到广泛认可。然而,关于实施这些做法的决定因素和后果,仍然可以发现好坏参半的结果。本研究调查了西班牙酒庄环境主动性的决定因素,重点关注公司规模在利用自然资源为基础的观点将内部动机和利益相关者压力与积极的环境战略联系起来的作用。到目前为止,还没有针对西班牙葡萄酒行业进行过此类研究。以251家葡萄酒企业为样本,建立了基于偏最小二乘的结构方程模型,以评价二者的直接关系和调节作用。该研究确定了内部动机、社区压力和监管压力是主动环境战略的决定因素。在积极应对环境问题时,公司特征在决策中起着至关重要的作用。小公司往往更多地受到内部动机的影响,而大公司则是在外部压力的驱使下采取环境行动。此外,我们发现,采取积极主动的方法来保护环境的管理者可以获得经济回报。这些发现为决策者和管理者提供了重要的启示,为西班牙葡萄酒公司积极主动的环境战略如何影响财务绩效提供了新的理论和实证见解。[参考文献]O31, Q55, C30。
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引用次数: 0
Not the priciest, but the best quality: A new interpretation of high import food price in China 不是最贵的,而是最优质的:中国进口食品高价新解
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21879
Lin Sun, Qiaoyun Fang, Zhaofang Ni, Michael R. Reed
Against the background of rapid increases in food imports, high food import prices have become an important issue for China. This paper first establishes the theoretical relationship between per capita income and import price, then uses a panel data fixed effect model and an instrumental variable estimation based on highly disaggregated firm-level import data from the General Administration of Customs to analyze food import prices. This paper studies the impact of China's per capita income on the food import price and the key role of imported food quality in price formation for imported food in China. The study finds that the increase in per capita income has a significant, positive influence on the price of imported food in China, but this positive impact on the price is due to quality upgrading. The results suggest that while the increase of per capita income in China has generally pushed up import food prices, it has been mainly due to imports of higher-quality food. There is no evidence that Chinese consumers are being fleeced by foreign exporting country or are seeking expensive products to flaunt their wealth. Chinese consumers are upgrading their diet with higher-quality food imports. [EconLit Citations: F13, F14, Q17, Q18].
在食品进口快速增长的背景下,食品进口价格高企已成为中国面临的一个重要问题。本文首先建立了人均收入与进口价格之间的理论关系,然后利用面板数据固定效应模型和基于海关总署高度分类的企业进口数据的工具变量估计对食品进口价格进行了分析。本文研究了中国人均收入对进口食品价格的影响,以及进口食品质量在中国进口食品价格形成中的关键作用。研究发现,人均收入的提高对中国进口食品价格有显著的正向影响,但这种正向影响是由于质量的提升。研究结果表明,虽然中国人均收入的增加总体上推高了进口食品价格,但这主要是由于进口了质量更高的食品。没有证据表明中国消费者正在被外国出口国欺骗,或者正在寻求昂贵的产品来炫耀自己的财富。中国消费者正在通过进口质量更高的食品来升级他们的饮食。[引用文献:F13, F14, Q17, Q18]。
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引用次数: 0
Can digital transformation promote the improvement of regional food security? Empirical findings from China 数字化转型能否促进地区粮食安全的改善?来自中国的经验性发现
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.1002/agr.21881
Shunyu Yao, Zitian Fu
Food security is an important guarantee for people's lives and national security, and digital transformation provides a new approach to improving the level of food security. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2021, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of digital transformation on food security using fixed effects model, mediation model, moderation model, and spatial Durbin model. The research results show that: (1) digital transformation has a promoting effect on the level of food security, and there is regional heterogeneity in this promoting effect; (2) digital transformation has a mediating effect on the level of food security, which can improve the level of food security by promoting technological innovation, agricultural scale management, and marketization levels; (3) environmental regulations play a positive moderating role in the process of digital transformation promoting the level of food security; (4) there is a spatial spillover effect of digital transformation on the level of food security, which has a positive spillover effect on surrounding areas. Therefore, moving forward, it is imperative that we prioritize the digital transformation of the entire food industry chain, promote the coordinated development of digital industries in various regions, further improve the R&D innovation capability of digital technology, promote the integration of farmland to achieve large‐scale agricultural operation, and enhance the level of marketization, and at the same time improve environmental monitoring standards, fully tap the promoting effect of digital transformation on regional food security level. [EconLit Citations: Q16, Q18, R15].
粮食安全是人民生活和国家安全的重要保障,数字化转型为提高粮食安全水平提供了新途径。本文基于2007-2021年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用固定效应模型、中介模型、调节模型和空间杜宾模型,实证分析了数字化转型对粮食安全的影响。研究结果表明(1)数字化转型对粮食安全水平具有促进作用,且这种促进作用存在区域异质性;(2)数字化转型对粮食安全水平具有中介效应,通过促进技术创新、农业规模经营和市场化水平,可以提高粮食安全水平;(3)环境规制在数字化转型促进粮食安全水平的过程中起到积极的调节作用;(4)数字化转型对粮食安全水平存在空间溢出效应,对周边地区具有正向溢出效应。因此,展望未来,当务之急是优先推进粮食全产业链的数字化转型,促进各地区数字产业的协调发展,进一步提高数字技术的研发创新能力,推动农地整合,实现农业规模化经营,提升市场化水平,同时提高环境监测标准,充分挖掘数字化转型对区域粮食安全水平的促进作用。[经济学引文:Q16、Q18、R15]。
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引用次数: 0
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