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Using Classification Methods in Forecasting the Level of Geomagnetic Field Disturbance Based on the Kp-Index 根据 Kp 指数使用分类方法预测地磁场扰动程度
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600140
I. M. Gadzhiev, O. G. Barinov, I. N. Myagkova, S. A. Dolenko

The paper explores the possibilities of using data classification methods when forecasting time series of the geomagnetic Kp-index by machine learning methods. To classify categories of the Kp-index based on the degree of disturbance, linear and logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting on top of decision trees, and artificial neural networks of various architectures are used. The results of these methods are compared with a trivial inertial forecast (the statistical indicators of which for problems of this type are always high) at horizons from 3 h to 1 day in 3-h increments. The problem of choosing a cross-validation scheme for selecting the model hyperparameters, ways to overcome the imbalance of categories, the relative importance of input features, as well as the dependence of the results on the test sample (beginning of the 25th solar activity cycle) on inclusion in the training sample of data from the 23rd and 24th cycles or only the 24th cycles are studied. Based on the results, conclusions are drawn about the preferred methods for classifying values of the Kp-index based on the level of geomagnetic disturbance. Ways for further research and possible improvement of the classification quality are outlined, including for determining the characteristic hidden states of Earth’s magnetosphere as a dynamic system in order to improve the quality of forecasting geomagnetic indices.

摘要 本文探讨了用机器学习方法预测地磁 Kp 指数时间序列时使用数据分类方法的可能性。为了根据干扰程度对 Kp 指数进行分类,使用了线性和逻辑回归、随机森林、决策树之上的梯度提升以及各种架构的人工神经网络。将这些方法的结果与三维惯性预报(此类问题的统计指标总是很高)进行比较,预报时间范围从 3 小时到 1 天,每 3 小时为一个增量。研究了选择模型超参数的交叉验证方案、克服类别不平衡的方法、输入特征的相对重要性,以及测试样本(第 25 个太阳活动周期的开始)的结果对训练样本中包含第 23 和 24 个周期或仅包含第 24 个周期数据的依赖性。根据研究结果,得出了根据地磁干扰程度对 Kp 指数值进行分类的首选方法。概述了进一步研究和可能提高分类质量的方法,包括确定地球磁层作为动态系统的特征隐藏状态,以提高地磁指数预报的质量。
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引用次数: 0
Ionospheric Features of Polar Cusp Dayside Precipitation for a Northern IMF 北方 IMF 极顶日侧降水的电离层特征
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600103
V. G. Vorobjev, O. I. Yagodkina, E. E. Antonova

Geophysical processes in the region of the dayside polar cusp on December 22, 2003, were studied for a northern orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and a relatively high-velocity, low-density solar wind, using ground-based optical observations in Svalbard and DMSP F16 satellite data. Comparison of satellite and ground-based observations shows that soft electron precipitation in the cusp region determines the auroral glow in the 630.0 nm (OI) emission. The peculiarity of the considered event is observation of a bright rayed arc of the aurora rimming the dayside cusp from its polar edge. The results of observations by the low-flying DMSP F16 satellite as it intersected the rayed arc were analyzed. Explanations for the observed phenomena are proposed, based on analysis of changes in the spectra of precipitating electrons and formation of a field-aligned electron beam by the field-aligned electric field.

摘要 利用斯瓦尔巴的地基光学观测数据和 DMSP F16 卫星数据,研究了 2003 年 12 月 22 日行星际磁场(IMF)北向和速度相对较高、密度较低的太阳风情况下日侧极顶区域的地球物理过程。卫星和地面观测数据的比较表明,尖顶区域的软电子沉淀决定了 630.0 nm (OI) 辐射中的极光辉光。此次事件的特点是观测到极光的一条明亮射线弧线从极地边缘环绕着日侧尖顶。分析了低空飞行的 DMSP F16 卫星与射线弧相交时的观测结果。根据对析出电子的光谱变化以及场对齐电场形成的场对齐电子束的分析,提出了对观测到的现象的解释。
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引用次数: 0
Lithospheric Magnetic Anomalies of the Polar Arctic According to CHAMP Satellite Data 根据 CHAMP 卫星数据得出的极地北极岩石圈磁异常现象
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600036
D. Yu. Abramova, L. M. Abramova

The study of the deep structure and tectonics of the Arctic region is relevant not only for solving fundamental problems of modern geodynamics, but also for developing natural resources in the circumpolar regions; it is also of interest from the geopolitical view when determining the boundaries of the marginal seas shelves. To analyze the anomalous magnetic field in the Polar Arctic region, experimental CHAMP satellite data were used, obtained at the last stage of its operation, when the orbit altitude decreased to 280–260 km, which made it possible to obtain geomagnetic parameters with higher spatial resolution. For several sectors of the Polar Arctic, maps of the lithospheric magnetic anomalies field distribution for various scales and degrees of averaging over this area were constructed. The anomalies parameters were analyzed and an explanation was proposed for the geological and physical nature of the anomalies, which are images of the most significant geological–tectonic structures of the North Atlantic Igneous Province and complex of Central Arctic underwater rises. The article discusses the relationships between the discovered features of the lithospheric anomalous magnetic field distribution, and the known geological structures of Amerasia and Eurasia, and tectonic processes that occurred here in the past and still proceed now. The results obtained are of interest for further comprehensive geological and geophysical studies and construction of substantiated models of the Arctic region lithosphere evolution.

摘要 北极地区深层结构和构造的研究不仅与解决现代地球动力学的基本问题有关,而且与开发环北极地区的自然资源有关;从地缘政治的角度来看,在确定边缘海大陆架的边界时也很有意义。为了分析极地北极地区的异常磁场,使用了 CHAMP 卫星在运行的最后阶段获得的实验数据,当时的轨道高度下降到 280-260 公里,从而有可能获得空间分辨率更高的地磁参数。针对极地北极的几个区域,绘制了该地区不同尺度和平均程度的岩石圈磁异常场分布图。对异常参数进行了分析,并对异常的地质和物理性质提出了解释,这些异常是北大西洋火成岩省最重要的地质构造结构和北极中部水下隆起复合体的图像。文章讨论了已发现的岩石圈异常磁场分布特征与已知的美洲和欧亚大陆地质结构之间的关系,以及过去在这里发生的和现在仍在进行的构造过程。所获得的结果对于进一步开展全面的地质和地球物理研究以及构建北极地区岩石圈演变的实证模型具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Vector Magnetic Field Reconstruction from Single-Component Data Using Evolutionary Algorithm 利用进化算法从单分量数据中重建矢量磁场
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600164
R. A. Rytov, N. A. Usov, V. G. Petrov

A simple evolutionary algorithm is proposed to reconstruct a vector anomalous magnetic field from measurement data of one of its components. The algorithm selects the positions and magnetic moments of an assembly of point magnetic dipoles, the total magnetic field of which approximates with the required accuracy the data of single-component magnetic measurements at a known height above the earth’s surface. The distribution of sources obtained in this manner enables the reconstruction of all three components of the magnetic field. In this study, an evolutionary algorithm was utilized to solve the problem of reconstructing the magnetic field components ({{H}_{x}}) and ({{H}_{y}}) from the measured ({{H}_{z}}) vertical component data. Additionally, an iterative procedure was proposed for calculating the ({{H}_{x}}), ({{H}_{y}}) and ({{H}_{z}}) components of the magnetic field from known data for the anomalous component of the geomagnetic field.

摘要 提出了一种简单的进化算法,用于根据其中一个分量的测量数据重建矢量异常磁场。该算法选择点磁偶极子组合的位置和磁矩,其总磁场以所需的精度近似于在地球表面已知高度的单分量磁场测量数据。通过这种方式获得的磁源分布可以重建磁场的所有三个分量。在这项研究中,利用了一种进化算法来解决从测量到的({{H}_{x}})垂直分量数据重建磁场分量({{H}_{x}})和({{H}_{y}})的问题。此外,还提出了一个迭代程序,用于根据已知的地磁场异常分量数据计算磁场的({{H}_{x}})、({{H}_{y}})和({{H}_{z}})分量。
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引用次数: 0
Forbush Effects and Geomagnetic Storms 福布什效应和地磁暴
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600097
A. V. Belov, E. A. Belova, N. S. Shlyk, M. A. Abunina, A. A. Abunin, S. M. Belov

Forbush effects in galactic cosmic rays (according to the neutron monitor network data) and accompanying geomagnetic disturbances over a long period from 1957 to 2022 have been identified and studied. Statistical relationships between various parameters of cosmic ray flux variations and geomagnetic activity indices are analyzed. It has been established that the magnitude of Forbush effects depends nonlinearly on the class of geomagnetic storm. A moderate correlation (up to 0.67) was found between the extreme values of various geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, Kp, Dst) and cosmic ray characteristics. It is shown that the extreme values of cosmic ray and geomagnetic activity parameters are not always detected simultaneously: it depends on the sign of the Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic field in a specific event.

摘要 确定并研究了银河宇宙射线中的福布什效应(根据中子监测网数据)以及从1957年到2022年的很长一段时间内伴随的地磁扰动。分析了宇宙射线通量变化的各种参数与地磁活动指数之间的统计关系。研究证实,福布什效应的大小与地磁暴的等级呈非线性关系。发现各种地磁活动指数(Ap、Kp、Dst)的极值与宇宙射线特征之间有适度的相关性(高达 0.67)。研究表明,宇宙射线和地磁活动参数的极值并不总是同时被探测到:这取决于特定事件中行星际磁场Bz分量的符号。
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引用次数: 0
Study of Sudden Magnetic Storm Commencement from Observations with Second Time Resolution 通过第二时间分辨率观测研究磁暴的突然发生
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600152
Yu. S. Zagainova, S. V. Gromov, L. I. Gromova, V. G. Fainshtein

The article presents the results of a studying detection of the sudden commencement (SC) and main impulse (MI) of a magnetic storm as a function of the geographic coordinates of magnetic observatories and Universal Time, using modern data with second time resolution. The analysis was carried out for two events in which an interplanetary shock wave impacting the magnetosphere was associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs) with sources in different hemispheres of the Sun. The authors propose an approach to determine the time points of SC and MI detection. It is concluded that the SC and MI detection times may differ by several seconds to more than a minute at magnetic observatories located at different geographic latitudes and longitudes. For the studied events, the graphs of SC and MI detection as functions of the geographic coordinates of magnetic observatories and Universal Time revealed trends according to which, on average, the higher station the latitude, the later SC and MI are detected at the station.

摘要 本文介绍了利用具有秒时间分辨率的现代数据对磁暴的突然开始(SC)和主脉冲(MI)作为磁观测站地理坐标和世界时的函数进行研究探测的结果。分析是针对两个事件进行的,在这两个事件中,行星际冲击波撞击磁层与行星际日冕物质抛射(CMEs)有关,其来源位于太阳的不同半球。作者提出了一种确定 SC 和 MI 检测时间点的方法。结论是,在位于不同地理纬度和经度的磁观测站,SC 和 MI 的探测时间可能相差几秒到一分多钟。对于所研究的事件,SC 和 MI 的探测时间与磁性观测站的地理坐标和世界时的函数关系图显示了这样的趋势:平均而言,纬度越高的观测站,其 SC 和 MI 的探测时间越晚。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Structure of Plasma Density Disturbances in the Topside Ionosphere Caused by High-Power HF Heating of the F2 Layer 高功率高频加热 F2 层引起的顶部电离层等离子体密度扰动的空间结构
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600127
V. L. Frolov, E. S. Andreeva, A. M. Padokhin

The study analyzes the results of low-orbital satellite radio tomography measurements of the spatial structure of artificial electron-density variations Earth’s topside ionosphere excited during modification of the F2 layer of the mid-latitude ionosphere by high-power O-polarized HF radio waves emitted by the SURA heating facility. The article considers the characteristics of the cavity with a reduced plasma density that forms near the reflection height of a high-power HF radio wave, ducts with increased plasma density that form in the topside ionosphere due to displacement of plasma from the heated region along the geomagnetic field, and various wave disturbances induced at ionospheric heights. In addition, the properties of detected plasma density disturbances of a special nature in the vertical column above the central part of the disturbed region of the ionosphere are also investigated. The sizes of the studied irregularities are from several tens to several hundreds of kilometers, and the area of their existence goes far beyond the region of resonance interaction of a high-power O-polarized radio wave with ionospheric plasma near its reflection height, where the most intense artificial ionospheric turbulence is excited.

摘要 该研究分析了低轨道卫星无线电层析成像测量的结果,这些测量是在 SURA 加热设施发射的大功率 O 偏振高频无线电波改变中纬度电离层 F2 层期间激发的地球顶部电离层人工电子密度变化的空间结构。文章探讨了在大功率高频无线电波反射高度附近形成的等离子体密度降低的空腔的特征、由于等离子体从加热区域沿地磁场位移而在顶部电离层形成的等离子体密度增加的导管以及在电离层高度诱发的各种波干扰。此外,还研究了在电离层扰动区中心部分上方的垂直柱中探测到的具有特殊性质的等离子体密度扰动的特性。所研究的不规则现象的大小从几十公里到几百公里不等,其存在区域远远超出了大功率 O 偏振无线电波与电离层等离子体在其反射高度附近发生共振相互作用的区域,在该区域会激发最强烈的人工电离层湍流。
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引用次数: 0
Compliance of AE and Apo Indices Variations during 23−24 Solar Cycles 23-24 太阳周期中 AE 和 Apo 指数变化的一致性
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793224600115
T. L. Gulyaeva

The auroral electrojet index AE is often used in forecasting models as a driver of the disturbance propagation in the geosphere from the pole to middle and low latitudes. However, these data are not available digitally since January 2020. Instead of the AE-index, we suggest using the recently introduced 1 h Apo-index, given the close proximity of magnetometer networks for these indices at high latitudes and the availability of the Apo-index in real time. To this end their correlation is analyzed during 276 intense storms for 1995–2017. Storm profiles are constructed by method of superposed epochs with zero epoch time t0 = 0 taken at the threshold value of AE ≥ 1000 nT. A comparison is made of the storm profiles of AE(t), Apo(t), the interplanetary electric field E(t) and the solar wind speed Vsw(t) within 72 h: 24 h before the storm peak t0, and 48 h afterward. A good agreement is obtained between the sets of AE(t) and Apo(t) with a correlation coefficient of 0.70. Comparison with the interplanetary parameters testifies on the correlation of AE(t) and Apo(t) with the electric field E(t) but missing their linkage with the solar wind speed Vsw(t). A two-parametric formula is derived for dependence of the auroral electrojet index AE(t) on the interplanetary electric field E(t) and the geomagnetic Apo(t) index for the geomagnetic storm forecasting. In the absence of E(t) data, formulae for the dependence of AE(t) on Apo(t) is introduced for implementation in real time and the inverse dependence of Apo(t) on AE(t) for reconstruction of the 1 h Apo-index before 1995. Validation of the proposed models with data for 5 intense storms in 2018 has shown a close resemblance of the model with observation data of the AE-index with a high coefficient of determination R2 ranging from 0.62 to 0.81.

摘要极光电喷指数AE经常被用于预报模式中,作为扰动在地圈从极地向中低纬度传播的驱动力。然而,自 2020 年 1 月起,这些数据无法以数字形式提供。我们建议使用最近推出的 1 h Apo 指数来代替 AE 指数,因为这些指数在高纬度的磁强计网络非常接近,而且 Apo 指数可以实时获得。为此,我们分析了 1995-2017 年间 276 次强烈风暴中这两个指数的相关性。风暴剖面是通过叠加历元的方法构建的,零历元时间 t0 = 0 取自 AE ≥ 1000 nT 的临界值。比较了风暴峰值 t0 前 24 小时和风暴峰值 t0 后 48 小时 72 小时内 AE(t)、Apo(t)、行星际电场 E(t) 和太阳风速度 Vsw(t) 的风暴剖面。AE(t)和Apo(t)的相关系数为0.70,两者之间的一致性很好。与行星际参数的比较证明了 AE(t) 和 Apo(t) 与电场 E(t) 的相关性,但缺少它们与太阳风速度 Vsw(t) 的联系。推导出了极光电喷指数 AE(t) 与行星际电场 E(t) 和地磁 Apo(t) 指数的双参数公式,用于地磁暴预报。在没有 E(t)数据的情况下,介绍了 AE(t)对 Apo(t)的依赖公式,以便实时实施,并介绍了 Apo(t)对 AE(t)的反依赖关系,以便重建 1995 年前的 1 h Apo 指数。利用 2018 年 5 次强风暴的数据对所提出的模型进行了验证,结果表明模型与 AE 指数的观测数据非常相似,决定系数 R 2 在 0.62 至 0.81 之间。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of the Velocity of Ionospheric Disturbances from the Dynamics of Additional U-Shaped Traces on Ionograms 从电离层图上附加 U 形痕迹的动态确定电离层扰动的速度
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793223601084
O. A. Laryunin, V. I. Kurkin, A. A. Rybkina, A. V. Podlesnyi

One of the approaches to solving the inverse problem of determining the parameters of ionospheric disturbances is the multiple solution of the two-point problem with the subsequent comparison of the simulation results with experimental data (ionograms). However, this approach is usually associated with significant calculation time costs, which makes it impossible to process large arrays of sounding data. The method described in this article makes it possible to quickly determine the horizontal velocity of the ionospheric disturbance by descent rate of an additional U-shaped trace moving to lower virtual heights on the vertical sounding ionograms: in order to calculate the velocity, it is proposed to use the results of the ray tracing obtained for the reference background profiles with disturbances superimposed on them.

摘要--解决确定电离层扰动参数的逆问题的方法之一是多解两点问题,然后将模拟结果与实验数据(电离图)进行比较。然而,这种方法通常需要花费大量计算时间,因此无法处理大量探测数据。本文介绍的方法可以通过在垂直探测电离图上向较低虚拟高度移动的附加 U 形轨迹的下降率,快速确定电离层扰动的水平速度:为了计算速度,建议使用在参考背景剖面上叠加扰动后获得的射线追踪结果。
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of Characteristics of Vertical Electric Current and Magnetic Field in Active Regions of the Sun and Their Relation to Powerful Flares 太阳活动区域垂直电流和磁场特征的演变及其与强大耀斑的关系
IF 0.7 4区 地球科学 Q4 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793223601060
A. B. Nechaeva, I. V. Zimovets, V. S. Zubik, I. N. Sharykin

The study of evolution of magnetic field and electric currents in active regions of the Sun over a long-time interval is of interest for understanding the processes of energy accumulation and release in them, leading to various phenomena that affect space weather. In this study, based on the photospheric vector magnetograms of the helioseismic and magnetic imager instrument aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, the authors analyzed the evolution of a number of characteristics of the magnetic field and vertical electric current in three active regions, 11 158, 11 675, and 12 673, that produced M and X class flares, during the time from their origin in the eastern hemisphere, during passage through the solar disk, and until their disappearance near the western limb with a step of 2 h. The characteristics considered included: the power-law exponent of the probability density function of the absolute value of the vertical electric current density, the maximum absolute value of the vertical current density, the signed and unsigned total vertical currents and the unsigned total vertical and horizontal magnetic fluxes, the energy of the nonlinear force-free and potential magnetic fields, the free magnetic energy, and the number of islands with strong vertical current. Some regularities in the behavior of the characteristics considered are found, in particular, regarding the occurrence of solar flares. The correlation coefficients between pairs of these characteristics are calculated. Additionally, M. Aschwanden’s approach is shown to be promising for predicting the maximum X-ray class of a flare by calculating the energy of the potential magnetic field in active regions. The results can be used to predict powerful solar flares.

摘要研究太阳活动区域磁场和电流的长期演变,有助于了解其中的能量积累和释放过程,从而导致影响空间天气的各种现象。在这项研究中,作者以太阳动力学天文台上的日震和磁成像仪的光球矢量磁图为基础,分析了产生 M 级和 X 级耀斑的 11 158、11 675 和 12 673 三个活动区的磁场和垂直电流的一些特征的演变情况,这些特征的演变过程从它们在东半球的起源开始,在穿过太阳圆盘的过程中,直到它们在西缘附近消失(步长为 2 小时)。考虑的特征包括:垂直电流密度绝对值概率密度函数的幂律指数、垂直电流密度的最大绝对值、有符号和无符号的总垂直电流以及无符号的总垂直和水平磁通量、非线性无势磁场和有势磁场的能量、自由磁能以及具有强垂直电流的岛屿数量。在所考虑的特征行为中发现了一些规律性,特别是在太阳耀斑的发生方面。计算了这些特征对之间的相关系数。此外,M. Aschwanden 的方法通过计算活跃区域潜在磁场的能量,被证明有望预测耀斑的最大 X 射线等级。其结果可用于预测强大的太阳耀斑。
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引用次数: 0
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Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
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