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COVID-19, food insecurity and panic buying behavior: Evidence from rural Bangladesh COVID-19、粮食不安全和恐慌性购买行为:来自孟加拉国农村的证据
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01515-3
Mohammad Abdul Malek, Hoa Thi Truong, Tetsushi Sonobe

The uncertainties, such as the pandemic (COVID-19), natural calamities, and war, disrupt agricultural production and supply chains, leading to concerns about food access in developing countries. Therefore, this study uses panel data collected through three survey rounds in June and September 2020 and January 2021 to analyze changes in household food expenditure and consumption behaviors and to investigate the association between household characteristics and food insecurity. The results show that households with diverse income sources, including multiple farm products, non-farm businesses, and remittances from absent members, are less likely to reduce food consumption quality and quantity, and be in the lower tail of food expenditure distribution. -However, households in the upper tail of the food expenditure distribution aggressively stock up on food in the second quarter of the year, fearing that lockdown measures would interrupt the food supply. These households tend to have an urban way of living characterized by salaried jobs, small family size, high educational attainment, and proximity to the capital city. The levels of food expenditure remain high even after the lifting of lockdown and movement restrictions, and the reason might be possible uncertainty about crop harvests, despite the eventual good harvests in the year. Overall, these findings suggest that diversification of income sources for rural households in developing countries can help households cope with disruptions to food production and supply chains. The findings also suggest that policies to ensure food access during the pandemic should target households with limited income sources and those in the lower tail of the food expenditure distribution.

大流行(COVID-19)、自然灾害和战争等不确定性破坏了农业生产和供应链,导致人们对发展中国家的粮食获取感到担忧。因此,本研究使用通过2020年6月和9月以及2021年1月三轮调查收集的面板数据,分析家庭食品支出和消费行为的变化,并调查家庭特征与粮食不安全之间的关系。结果表明,收入来源多样化的家庭,包括多种农产品、非农业企业和缺席成员的汇款,降低食品消费质量和数量的可能性较小,处于食品支出分布的下尾。——但是,在食品支出分配中上尾的家庭,由于担心封锁措施会中断食品供应,在今年第二季度积极囤积食品。这些家庭往往拥有城市生活方式,其特点是有薪水的工作,家庭规模小,受教育程度高,靠近首都。即使在解除封锁和行动限制之后,粮食支出水平仍然很高,其原因可能是作物收成可能存在不确定性,尽管今年最终会有好收成。总体而言,这些研究结果表明,发展中国家农村家庭收入来源的多样化可以帮助家庭应对粮食生产和供应链的中断。研究结果还表明,确保大流行期间粮食获取的政策应针对收入来源有限的家庭和处于粮食支出分配低端的家庭。
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引用次数: 0
Dietary transitions in Indonesia: the case of urban, rural, and forested areas 印度尼西亚的饮食转型:城市、农村和森林地区的情况
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01488-3
Mulia Nurhasan, Desy Leo Ariesta, Mia Mustika Hutria Utami, Mochamad Fahim, Nia Aprillyana, Agus Muhamad Maulana, Amy Ickowitz

This study examines food consumption patterns in Indonesia across urban, rural, and forested areas with varying levels of tree cover loss (TCL). Using household food consumption data from the National Socio-economic Survey in 2008 and 2017, and data from the Global Forest Watch website, we identify differences in food consumption patterns in urban, rural, and forested areas with high and low TCL. The results indicate a dietary transition is occurring in Indonesia, characterized by increased consumption of wheat, chicken, fish, sugar-sweetened beverages, processed, ultra-processed, and ready-to-eat foods, and a decline in the consumption of green leafy vegetables and fresh legumes across all area categories. Diet quality is declining in all area categories, however, urban areas showed the most accelerated decline, with declining dietary diversity, decreasing consumption of healthy foods, while increasing consumption of less healthy foods and the highest consumption of ultra-processed foods. Furthermore, foods consumed more in urban (vs. rural) and high-TCL (vs. low-TCL) areas, such as wheat, broiler chicken, dairy, and packaged foods, are associated with modern diets and sourced from farther away, indicating accelerated modernization and delocalization of diets. Conversely, foods consumed more in rural and low-TCL areas, such as traditional staple foods, free-range eggs, and dark green leafy vegetables, are considered more locally sourced and traditional. We conclude that dietary transitions occur across all regions, but the modernization of diets is more accelerated in urban and high-TCL areas. Given the mixed health consequences of modern diets, policies should anticipate negative impacts while preserving positive aspects.

本研究探讨了印度尼西亚城市、农村和林区不同程度的树木覆盖丧失(TCL)的食品消费模式。利用 2008 年和 2017 年全国社会经济调查的家庭食品消费数据以及全球森林观察网站的数据,我们确定了 TCL 高和 TCL 低的城市、农村和森林地区食品消费模式的差异。结果表明,印度尼西亚正在发生膳食转型,其特点是小麦、鸡肉、鱼类、含糖饮料、加工食品、超加工食品和即食食品的消费量增加,而绿叶蔬菜和新鲜豆类的消费量在所有地区类别中都有所下降。所有地区类别的膳食质量都在下降,但城市地区的下降速度最快,膳食多样性下降,健康食品的消费量减少,而不太健康食品的消费量增加,超加工食品的消费量最高。此外,城市(相对于农村)和高三氯氢硅(相对于低三氯氢硅)地区消费较多的食品,如小麦、肉鸡、乳制品和包装食品,都与现代膳食有关,且来源较远,表明膳食加速现代化和非本地化。相反,在农村和低 TCL 地区消费较多的食物,如传统主食、土鸡蛋和深绿色叶菜,则被认为更多来自本地和传统。我们的结论是,所有地区都会发生膳食转变,但城市和高 TCL 地区的膳食现代化进程更快。鉴于现代膳食对健康的影响有好有坏,相关政策在保留积极方面的同时,也应预见负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Productivity effects of agroecological practices in Africa: insights from a systematic review and meta-analysis 非洲农业生态实践对生产力的影响:来自系统回顾和荟萃分析的见解
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01504-6
Miriam E. Romero Antonio, Amy Faye, Bibiana Betancur-Corredor, Heike Baumüller, Joachim von Braun

Scholars have proposed agroecology as a promising method for promoting sustainable and socially just agricultural production systems. However, the extent to which agroecological practices will generate the yields required to ensure sufficient food globally remains unclear. This notion is particularly true in the context of Africa, where agricultural productivity is low but levels of hunger and malnutrition are high. To address this knowledge gap, this article undertakes a systematic review of empirical studies to assess the overall status of agroecology-related research in Africa. Using descriptive and meta-analytical methods, we evaluate empirical evidence on the effect of agroecological practices on land and labour productivity. Our analysis of 501 peer-reviewed articles reveals that the body of agroecology-related literature in Africa has been growing in the past 10 years from approximately 10 to more than 70 studies per annum before and after 2014, respectively, with a strong focus on East Africa, particularly Kenya. The majority of the reviewed studies relate to but do not mention agroecology in the title or abstract. Thus, solely relying on studies that use the term may introduce bias and overlook valuable research contributions to the field. The meta-analysis could identify 39 agronomic studies with 392 observations in which agroecological practices were compared to monocrop systems (defined as plots where similar plants grow alongside each other simultaneously and sequentially from one season to the next) with or without inputs as the control groups. The meta-analysis indicates that agroecological practices are associated with a positive and significant difference in land productivity, compared to that for monocrop systems especially so when monocrops are grown without inputs. However, the size and direction of yield differs by practice, crop, climatic factor, soil property and type of control.

学者们提出,农业生态学是促进可持续和社会公正的农业生产系统的一种有前途的方法。然而,农业生态实践将在多大程度上产生确保全球足够粮食所需的产量仍不清楚。这一概念在农业生产力低但饥饿和营养不良程度高的非洲尤其正确。为了解决这一知识差距,本文对实证研究进行了系统回顾,以评估非洲农业生态学相关研究的总体状况。利用描述和元分析方法,我们评估了农业生态实践对土地和劳动生产率影响的经验证据。我们对501篇同行评议文章的分析显示,在过去10年里,非洲农业生态学相关文献的数量一直在增长,分别从2014年前后的每年约10篇增加到70多篇,其中重点关注东非,尤其是肯尼亚。大多数被审查的研究与农业生态学有关,但在标题或摘要中没有提到农业生态学。因此,仅仅依赖使用该术语的研究可能会引入偏见,并忽视对该领域有价值的研究贡献。荟萃分析可以确定39项农艺研究和392项观察结果,其中农业生态实践与单一作物系统(定义为相似植物同时并排生长的地块,从一个季节到下一个季节依次生长)进行比较,有或没有投入作为对照组。荟萃分析表明,与单一作物系统相比,农业生态实践与土地生产力的显著正相关,特别是在没有投入的情况下种植单一作物时。然而,产量的大小和方向因实践、作物、气候因素、土壤性质和控制类型而异。
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引用次数: 0
Food systems modelling to evaluate interventions for food and nutrition security in an African urban context 粮食系统建模,以评估非洲城市背景下的粮食和营养安全干预措施
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01502-8
Tom X Hackbarth, Julian D. May, Sinoxolo Magaya, Peter H Verburg

In the context of rapidly growing African cities, a thorough understanding of the complexities of urban food systems is essential for addressing the challenges of food insecurity and undernourishment for city dwellers. Particularly in South Africa, where pre-existing inequalities drive disparities in food access and diet-related health outcomes, a comprehensive perspective including the spatial distribution of malnutrition in urban environments is required to develop effective interventions. The present study examines the essential elements of an urban food system by employing a Bayesian network as a causal framework. By integrating survey data from households and food outlets with spatial information, a food systems model was created to test policy interventions. The study demonstrates the challenges of intervening in complex urban food systems, where dietary choices are shaped by various factors, often in a spatially heterogeneous manner. Interventions do not always benefit the targeted groups and are sometimes ineffective as result of system interactions. Our study shows that Bayesian network models provide a powerful tool to effectively analyse the complex interactions within such systems, thereby enabling the identification of optimal combinations of multifactor interventions. In our case study for Worcester, South Africa, the results reveal that the largest potential for improvement of food and nutrition security lies in the informal food sector, and support for affordable and local fresh produce is a viable measure for enhancing local nutrition, though the extent of impact varies across the city.

在非洲城市快速发展的背景下,全面了解城市粮食系统的复杂性对于解决城市居民粮食不安全和营养不良的挑战至关重要。特别是在南非,先前存在的不平等导致了粮食获取和与饮食有关的健康结果方面的差异,因此需要从包括城市环境中营养不良的空间分布在内的全面角度来制定有效的干预措施。本研究考察了城市食品系统的基本要素,采用贝叶斯网络作为因果框架。通过将来自家庭和食品店的调查数据与空间信息相结合,创建了一个食品系统模型来测试政策干预措施。该研究展示了干预复杂的城市食物系统所面临的挑战,在城市食物系统中,饮食选择受到各种因素的影响,通常以空间异质性的方式形成。干预措施并不总是有利于目标群体,有时由于系统相互作用而无效。我们的研究表明,贝叶斯网络模型为有效分析此类系统内复杂的相互作用提供了强大的工具,从而能够确定多因素干预的最佳组合。在我们对南非伍斯特的案例研究中,结果显示,改善食品和营养安全的最大潜力在于非正规食品部门,支持负担得起的当地新鲜农产品是改善当地营养的可行措施,尽管影响程度因城市而异。
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引用次数: 0
A review of cultural acceptability and food utilization in India 印度文化接受度和食品利用情况综述
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01505-5
Navreet Kaur Rana

Food security is a matter of both global and national concern in India. In a country such as India, where consuming leftovers and reducing food wastage is an ingrained moral and religious belief as opposed to other cultures, especially in some highly industrialised ones, this article explores the possibility that providing citizens with solutions that are mindful of their cultural acceptability will lead to the effective implementation of policies at micro levels. One of the facets of food security, food utilization, is an aspect which can be improved at the individual and household levels. It constitutes one such opportunity in India because of the inherent belief system of the country. My investigation is based upon the theory of Johan Pottier (1999) who stated that while food security is a global issue and much policies is directed at that scale, policies are not well-grounded in a bottom-up understanding of foodscapes of those at whom it was aimed. The paper uncovers unanimity regarding the notions of consuming leftovers and curbing food waste as religious beliefs among various religions across India. It also compares the cultural acceptability of reusing leftovers and reducing wastage in India with developed nations such as the USA and the UK. This work thus emphasizes on avenues for further exploration about how anthropologists can be mobilised in situations which involve purely qualitative solutions. This research is specific in regard to the Indian population.The article attempts to provide a solution to implement policies in India with the intervention of anthropologists as a supporting machinery.

在印度,粮食安全是一个全球和国家共同关注的问题。在印度这样的国家,消费剩饭剩菜和减少食物浪费是一种根深蒂固的道德和宗教信仰,而不是其他文化,特别是在一些高度工业化的国家,本文探讨了为公民提供考虑其文化可接受性的解决方案的可能性,这将导致政策在微观层面的有效实施。粮食安全的一个方面,即粮食利用,是一个可以在个人和家庭两级加以改进的方面。由于这个国家固有的信仰体系,它在印度构成了这样一个机会。我的调查是基于Johan Pottier(1999)的理论,他指出,虽然粮食安全是一个全球性问题,许多政策都是针对这个规模的,但这些政策并没有很好地建立在对其所针对人群的粮食状况的自下而上的理解之上。这篇论文揭示了在印度各地的各种宗教中,消费剩饭剩菜和限制食物浪费的观念是一致的。它还比较了印度与美国和英国等发达国家对再利用剩饭剩菜和减少浪费的文化接受程度。因此,这项工作强调了进一步探索人类学家如何在涉及纯粹定性解决方案的情况下动员起来的途径。这项研究是专门针对印度人口的。本文试图在人类学家作为辅助机构的干预下,为在印度实施政策提供一个解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of changes in climate extremes on maize yields over Mainland China 极端气候变化对中国大陆玉米产量的影响
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01501-9
Simin Deng, Xuezhi Tan, Bingjun Liu

Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of climate extremes, but the influencing magnitudes of climate extreme events on maize yield in China remain unclear. Here, the impact of climate extremes on maize yield over Mainland China during the past four decades is assessed based on the concurrence of climate extremes (mean climate) and maize yields using the event coincidence analysis. Climate extremes during the maize growing season are represented by 14 extreme climate indices. Results showed that 95% of maize planting regions over Mainland China showed significant increases in maize yields, with an average increase of 0.071 t ha−1 year−1 from 1982 to 2016. Correlations between maize yields and climate indices are spatially heterogeneous. The area where maize is significantly affected by temperature extremes changes (2.7–15.4% of grids) is greater than the area affected by precipitation extremes (3.8–10.7% of grids). Positive maize yield events are more likely to coincide with positive temperature extremes and negative precipitation extremes. The proportion of years with significant events coincidence rates between positive yield events and positive evapotranspiration events is the highest, accounting for 94.29%. Our results implied that to adapt to the impact of climate events on maize yield, reliable extreme climate projection and maize planting growth season adjustment are required to ensure food security.

气候变化增加了极端气候事件发生的频率和严重程度,但极端气候事件对中国玉米产量的影响程度尚不清楚。本文基于极端气候(平均气候)与玉米产量的同时度,利用事件重合分析方法评估了近40年来中国大陆极端气候对玉米产量的影响。14个极端气候指数代表了玉米生长季的极端气候。结果表明:1982 - 2016年,中国大陆95%的玉米种植区玉米产量显著增加,平均增产0.071 tha - 1 - 1年。玉米产量与气候指数的相关性具有空间异质性。玉米受极端温度变化显著影响的区域(2.7 ~ 15.4%格位)大于受极端降水影响的区域(3.8 ~ 10.7%格位)。正的玉米产量事件更有可能与正的极端温度和负的极端降水同时发生。正产量事件与正蒸散事件的显著事件符合率最高,占94.29%。研究结果表明,为了适应气候事件对玉米产量的影响,需要可靠的极端气候预测和玉米种植生长季节调整,以确保粮食安全。
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引用次数: 0
Is there unrecognized potential in neglected livestock species in Sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review of four selected species 撒哈拉以南非洲被忽视的牲畜品种是否存在未被认识到的潜力?四种选定物种的系统综述
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01503-7
Maria Oguche, Juliet Kariuki, Regina Birner, Mizeck Chagunda

Over the recent years, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has seen an increase in population growth, urbanization, and per capita income. As a result, there has been a corresponding increase in the demand for animal source foods. In order to meet this demand, most countries have resorted to intensifying the production of conventional livestock. However, this increase in production comes with several environmental, nutritional, gender-related and economic challenges that are a rising concern. It is therefore imperative to explore the comparative advantages and disadvantages of other livestock species, which are currently consumed in SSA but are not recognised in widely adopted policies. Herein, using a novel conceptual framework, we present a systematic review of four selected neglected species, namely, grasscutter, guinea fowl, guinea pig, and rabbit. The review was conducted following the checklist for Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA), and 89 sources of literature were included. The results highlight that embracing these neglected livestock species could confer several benefits, including an enriched nutritional profile (high-quality protein, low fat, high dressing percentage), increased gross economic returns, environmental sustainability, and sustained empowerment of minority groups, especially women. Overall, this review shows the untapped nutritional and socio-economic potential of neglected livestock species, which, if incorporated into mainstream production, could improve food security and reduce unemployment in SSA.

近年来,撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)的人口增长、城市化和人均收入都有所增加。因此,对动物源食品的需求也相应增加。为了满足这一需求,大多数国家都采取了加强传统牲畜生产的办法。然而,这一产量增长带来了一些环境、营养、性别和经济方面的挑战,这些挑战日益受到关注。因此,有必要探讨其他牲畜物种的相对优势和劣势,这些物种目前在非洲南部被消费,但在广泛采用的政策中尚未得到承认。本文采用一个全新的概念框架,对四种被忽视的物种,即割草动物、珍珠鸡、豚鼠和兔子进行了系统的综述。按照系统评价和荟萃分析首选报告项目清单(PRISMA)进行综述,纳入了89篇文献。研究结果强调,接纳这些被忽视的牲畜物种可以带来一些好处,包括丰富的营养状况(高质量的蛋白质、低脂肪、高屠宰率)、增加总经济回报、环境可持续性以及持续赋予少数群体(特别是妇女)权力。总的来说,这篇综述显示了被忽视的牲畜物种尚未开发的营养和社会经济潜力,如果将其纳入主流生产,可以改善粮食安全并减少SSA的失业率。
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引用次数: 0
How does agricultural transformation affect the household food self-sufficiency of smallholders in the upper Mekong region, Southwest China? 农业转型如何影响湄公河上游地区小农家庭粮食自给?
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01498-1
Cong Pan, Shi Min, Hermann Waibel

This study investigates the household food self-sufficiency of smallholders in the upper Mekong region of Southwest China, where traditional self-sufficient farming has rapidly transformed into a commercialized economy. Using household survey data from 945 smallholders in Xishuangbanna Dai Autonomous Prefecture, the study employs a two-stage Tobit model to estimate the impact of agricultural transformation on the household food self-sufficiency of smallholders. The results, which are based on 2018 data, reveal that the average self-sufficiency rate for all foods was 40.7%, and that of grain was even lower at 33.4%. Changes in land use, specifically the substitution of food crops with cash crops, and labor allocation, namely, engagement in off-farm labor markets, are the main drivers of the reduction in household food self-sufficiency. A 10% increase in the share of cash crops results in a 4.2% decrease in the rate of household food self-sufficiency, whereas adding one additional crop to the portfolio leads to a 6.4% increase. Moreover, households with at least one family member engaging in off-farm labor have a 13.1% lower self-sufficiency rate than those without. This study contributes to a better understanding of the household food self-sufficiency of smallholders in the context of land use change and rising off-farm employment, while the findings provide a reference for policy design to ensure household food security for smallholders in the upper Mekong region.

本研究调查了中国西南湄公河上游地区小农的家庭粮食自给自足情况,该地区传统的自给自足农业已迅速转变为商业化经济。本研究利用西双版纳傣族自治州945名小农入户调查数据,采用两阶段Tobit模型估算农业转型对小农家庭粮食自给率的影响。基于2018年数据的研究结果显示,所有食品的平均自给率为40.7%,谷物的自给率甚至更低,为33.4%。土地利用的变化,特别是以经济作物代替粮食作物,以及劳动力分配,即参与非农劳动力市场,是家庭粮食自给率下降的主要驱动因素。经济作物的份额每增加10%,家庭粮食自给率就会下降4.2%,而在粮食组合中增加一种作物,家庭粮食自给率就会增加6.4%。此外,至少有一名家庭成员从事非农劳动的家庭的自给率比没有从事非农劳动的家庭低13.1%。本研究有助于更好地理解土地利用变化和非农就业增加背景下小农家庭粮食自给的情况,同时为湄公河上游地区小农家庭粮食安全的政策设计提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Community-based food sovereignty assessments (FSAs): A review 基于社区的粮食主权评估(FSAs):综述
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01500-w
Marylynn Steckley

Around the world, food security assessments are used by Non-Governmental Organizations and states to assess caloric sufficiency, hunger, and dietary diversity in order to evaluate health and nutrition, orient development programs, including food aid, and offer an early warning of hunger and famine. And yet, scholars tell us that the concept of food security has historically been muddy, and difficult to pin down, resulting in a plethora of assessments, tools and indicators, with significant variability. There is growing scholarly agreement that moving beyond “food security” is essential and that scholars, practitioners, and policymakers would do well to conceptualize agri-food systems as complex, and pay more attention to socio-ecological dynamics, political systems, culture, and health and well-being. Food Sovereignty offers a conceptual framework to bring together these dynamics and in the past decade, there has been an emerging body of Food Sovereignty metrics, assessments and indicators that highlight the complexities of the relationships between food, health, environments, culture, gender relations, and economies through a food sovereignty lens. At the local level, food-sovereignty assessments have gained traction in the past decade, but we know very little about these tools, where they align and diverge, and whether they engage with multi-scalar analysis of food systems. In this paper, I examine these community-based food sovereignty assessments, paying attention to how they align and diverge and illustrating what researchers, communities and policymakers can learn from community-based FSAs to date.

在世界各地,粮食安全评估被非政府组织和各国用来评估热量充足、饥饿和饮食多样性,以便评估健康和营养,为包括粮食援助在内的发展计划提供方向,并提供饥饿和饥荒的早期预警。然而,学者们告诉我们,粮食安全的概念在历史上一直是模糊的,很难确定,导致评估、工具和指标过多,差异很大。越来越多的学术共识认为,超越“粮食安全”是至关重要的,学者、从业者和政策制定者将农业粮食系统概念化为复杂的,并更多地关注社会生态动态、政治系统、文化、健康和福祉。粮食主权提供了一个概念性框架来汇集这些动态,在过去十年中,出现了一个新兴的粮食主权度量、评估和指标体系,通过粮食主权的视角突出了粮食、健康、环境、文化、性别关系和经济之间关系的复杂性。在地方一级,粮食主权评估在过去十年中得到了推动,但我们对这些工具知之甚少,不知道它们在哪里一致和分歧,也不知道它们是否涉及粮食系统的多标量分析。在本文中,我研究了这些基于社区的粮食主权评估,关注它们是如何一致和分歧的,并说明了迄今为止研究人员、社区和政策制定者可以从基于社区的粮食主权评估中学到什么。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria 评估全球价格冲击和尼日利亚福利和粮食安全缓解政策
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-024-01497-2
Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou, Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa, Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

农产品和能源价格的变化对经济和农业粮食系统产生直接的连锁效应。在本研究中,我们建立了一个动态一般均衡模型来模拟由俄罗斯-乌克兰战争引起的全球价格冲击对尼日利亚福利和粮食安全的影响。此外,我们分析了不同政策选择在短期和长期的有效性,特别是减少间接税和增加对受影响家庭的现金转移支付。结果表明,这些冲击为尼日利亚创造了机会,特别是在贸易、畜牧业和农业部门。这将导致GDP、就业和收入的增加。然而,由于粮食价格上涨对粮食消费和一些粮食安全指标产生负面影响,这些影响会随着时间的推移而消退。此外,对缓解情景的比较分析表明,在缓解对家庭的负面影响方面,有针对性地向家庭提供公共现金转移比减少粮食消费税更有效。
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Food Security
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