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COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated food insecurity in South American countries COVID-19大流行加剧了南美国家的粮食不安全状况
IF 6.2 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01538-4
Carlos Frederico A. Vasconcelos-Neto, Michelle Jacob, Daniel Tregidgo, Denis Valle, Hani R. El Bizri, Sávio Marcelino Gomes, Julia E. Fa, Thais Q. Morcatty, Frederico Ozanan Barros Monteiro, Alessandra Scofield, Alessandra Matte, Willandia A. Chaves, Luiz Henrique Medeiros Borges, Antônia I. A. Silva, Dídac Santos-Fita, Tiago Lucena Silva, Isaac Ibernon Lopes-Filho, Maria Isabel Afonso Silva, Rebeca Mascarenhas Fonseca Barreto, Marcela A Oliveira, Felipe Silva Ferreira, Ricardo Rodrigues Santos, Jaime Honorato-Júnior, Marilene Vasconcelos Silva Brazil, Shirliane Araújo Sousa, Deise C. L. Oliveira, Valéria R. F. Ferreira, Hyago K. L. Soares, Marcia F. Pinto, Raone Beltrão-Mendes, Marcos Paulo Lopes Rodrigues, Wáldima Alves Rocha, Roberto Gutiérrez Poblete, Francisco Luigi Schettini, Joe S. S. Rojas, Marco A. Aspilcueta, Justo D. V. Zevallos, Giussepe Gagliardi-Urrutia, Erick Rodolfo Menéndez Delgado, Mariela Lissette Polit-Vera, Elvira Rodríguez Ríos, Juan Carlos Carrascal Velásquez, Maria Dalila Forlano Riera, Lucy Perera Romero, Danilo A. Salas Dueñas, Daniel Garin, Pedro Mayor

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unparalleled political, economic, and social ramifications, exacerbating global food insecurity (FI). To understand the overall impact of the pandemic and how different socio-economic groups were affected, we assessed prevalence and severity of FI in a sample of 18,997 households across seven countries in South America. We employed the Food Insecurity Experience Scale developed by the FAO. Our results showed that pre-pandemic, 4.5% of the sampled population across the entire continent faced Moderate FI, while 0.6% experienced severe FI. During the pandemic, Moderate FI increased to 16.9% (+ 12.4%), and Severe FI to 2.7% (+ 2.1%). By country, pre-pandemic households in Venezuela had the highest prevalence of Moderate FI (9.7%), with Peru experiencing the highest Severe FI frequency (1.1%). Peru had the greatest rise in Moderate (+ 23.9%) and Severe FI (+ 4.6%) during the pandemic. Low-income households, defined as those earning < 2 minimum wages per month, were most susceptible to FI. Uruguayan low-income families exhibited the most significant rise (+ 40.4%) in Moderate FI, while those in Peru experienced an increase of + 9.1% in Severe FI. This study measures the profound and far-reaching impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on FI in South America. Our findings also emphasise the critical importance of implementing effective public policy interventions to improve resilience against future shocks. This would enable policymakers to develop targeted strategies that address the immediate challenges posed by pandemics as well as laying the groundwork for a more resilient and sustainable food security landscape in the region.

2019冠状病毒病大流行引发了前所未有的政治、经济和社会影响,加剧了全球粮食不安全状况。为了了解大流行的总体影响以及不同社会经济群体受到的影响,我们在南美洲7个国家的18,997个家庭样本中评估了FI的患病率和严重程度。我们采用了粮农组织制定的粮食不安全体验量表。我们的结果显示,大流行前,整个大陆4.5%的样本人口面临中度FI, 0.6%经历严重FI。在大流行期间,中度FI增加到16.9%(+ 12.4%),重度FI增加到2.7%(+ 2.1%)。按国家划分,委内瑞拉大流行前家庭的中度FI患病率最高(9.7%),秘鲁的严重FI患病率最高(1.1%)。在大流行期间,秘鲁的中度(+ 23.9%)和严重FI(+ 4.6%)增幅最大。低收入家庭(定义为每月收入最低2美元的家庭)最容易受到金融危机的影响。乌拉圭低收入家庭在中度FI中表现出最显著的增长(+ 40.4%),而秘鲁的低收入家庭在严重FI中增长了+ 9.1%。本研究测量了COVID-19大流行对南美洲FI的深刻而深远的影响。我们的研究结果还强调了实施有效的公共政策干预以提高抵御未来冲击的能力的重要性。这将使决策者能够制定有针对性的战略,以应对流行病带来的直接挑战,并为该区域更具抵御力和可持续的粮食安全格局奠定基础。
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引用次数: 0
Obituary: Peter Scott 1942–2025 co-founder, Food Security 讣告:彼得·斯科特1942-2025联合创始人,食品安全
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01544-6
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引用次数: 0
Equity and equality in diets and nutrition: Frameworks, evidence, and four country case studies 饮食和营养方面的公平与平等:框架、证据和四个国家案例研究
IF 6.2 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01537-5
Jody Harris, Jane Battersby, Jessica Gordon, Anna Isaacs, Ronald Ranta, Elisabetta Recine, Leah Salm, Nicholas Nisbett

Who is malnourished, why some people have access to diverse and healthy diets while others do not, and the lifelong and intergenerational consequences of these situations are questions that are central to why we care about food and nutrition equity – but these questions are often overlooked in research and practice. The purpose of this paper is to review recent work on equity and equality in the field of food, diets and nutrition, and to provide empirical case-studies demonstrating issues and solutions in practice, in order to move the field forward coherently. The Nutrition Equity Framework illustrates how unfairness, injustice and exclusion condition deep drivers of inequity that lead to unequal diet and nutrition outcomes. We use the framework to structure four case-studies from Brazil, South Africa, Vietnam and the UK on how researchers and activists are involved in the struggle for fair and just diets that are healthier and more sustainable. Comparison across the four case-studies provides a useful illustration of how diet and nutrition equity dynamics can play out in diverse ways depending on national historical and contemporary contexts; but at the same time, we see some parallel trends and characteristics suggesting common drivers of unhealthy and inequitable diets. In terms of action, equity can be operationalized in the positive as the need for recognition, representation and redistribution with relation to marginalized population groups, and the paper ends with suggestions from the literature on how to take this forward in research and action.

谁营养不良,为什么有些人可以获得多样化和健康的饮食,而其他人却不能,以及这些情况的终生和代际后果,这些问题是我们关心食物和营养公平的核心问题,但这些问题在研究和实践中往往被忽视。本文的目的是回顾最近在粮食、饮食和营养领域关于公平与平等的工作,并提供实证案例研究,展示实践中的问题和解决方案,以推动该领域的发展。《营养公平框架》说明了不公平、不公正和排斥如何成为导致饮食和营养结果不平等的不平等的深层驱动因素。我们使用这个框架来构建来自巴西、南非、越南和英国的四个案例研究,研究人员和活动家如何参与争取更健康、更可持续的公平和公正饮食的斗争。四个案例研究之间的比较提供了一个有用的说明,说明饮食和营养公平动态如何以不同的方式发挥作用,这取决于国家的历史和当代背景;但与此同时,我们也看到了一些相似的趋势和特征,表明了不健康和不公平饮食的共同驱动因素。在行动方面,平等可以作为与边缘化人口群体有关的承认、代表和再分配的需要而积极地运作,本文最后提出了关于如何在研究和行动中推进这一点的文献建议。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of home gardens promoted among urban residents in Dhaka, Bangladesh 家庭花园对孟加拉国达卡城市居民的影响
IF 6.2 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01543-7
Pepijn Schreinemachers, Sandhya S. Kumar, Nasir Md. Uddin

Promoting gardening among urban residents holds the potential to improve urban diets in low- and middle-income countries, but there is a lack of evidence of impact. This study tests the hypothesis that training urban residents in gardening increases their intake of fruit and vegetables. It uses panel data for 254 control and 425 treatment households from four city corporations in the Dhaka metropolitan area of Bangladesh. Urban residents, 85% of whom were women, were interviewed before the start of an urban gardening program and one year after training and inputs were provided to the treatment group. The study estimated the average treatment effects using a difference-in-difference estimator. Of the 38 outcomes tested, 20 are significant (p < 0.05) with 19 indicating a beneficial effect and one indicating an adverse effect. Among the beneficial effects, there is an increase in the diversity of fruits and vegetables produced (+ 5 species, p < 0.01), the frequency of harvesting (+ 0.64 times/week; p < 0.01), and increased sharing of produce with neighbors (+ 8%, p < 0.01). Regarding food and nutrition, there is an increase in women’s dietary diversity score (+ 0.37 on a 0–10 scale; p < 0.01), women’s minimum dietary diversity (+ 4%; p < 0.01), and in the number of portions of cooked vegetables eaten (+ 0.96 portions/day; p < 0.01). The gardening intervention also contributes to a range of perceived social, personal, and psychological benefits. The adverse effect is an increase in ultra-processed food consumption (+ 19%, p = 0.04). Nevertheless, the results confirm that urban gardening interventions can improve the quality of urban diets alongside other benefits.

在城市居民中推广园艺有可能改善低收入和中等收入国家的城市饮食,但缺乏影响的证据。这项研究验证了一个假设,即训练城市居民种植园艺会增加他们对水果和蔬菜的摄入量。它使用了来自孟加拉国达卡大都市区四家城市公司的254个控制家庭和425个治疗家庭的面板数据。城市居民(其中85%是女性)在城市园艺项目开始前接受了采访,并在向实验组提供培训和投入一年后接受了采访。该研究使用差中差估计器估计了平均治疗效果。在测试的38个结果中,20个是显著的(p < 0.05),其中19个表明有益效果,1个表明不良效果。在有益的影响中,增加了生产的水果和蔬菜的多样性(+ 5种,p < 0.01),收获频率(+ 0.64次/周;p < 0.01),增加了与邻居分享农产品(+ 8%,p < 0.01)。在食物和营养方面,女性的饮食多样性得分(0-10分+ 0.37分;p < 0.01),女性的最低饮食多样性得分(+ 4%;p < 0.01),以及食用煮蔬菜的份数(+ 0.96份/天;p < 0.01)都有所增加。园艺干预也有助于一系列可感知的社会、个人和心理益处。其不利影响是超加工食品消费的增加(+ 19%,p = 0.04)。然而,研究结果证实,城市园艺干预可以改善城市饮食质量,并带来其他好处。
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引用次数: 0
Trade-offs and synergies in food system transition: case of the Ethiopian dairy sector 粮食系统转型中的权衡与协同效应:以埃塞俄比亚乳制品行业为例
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01546-4
Augustine Abioye Ayantunde, Jan van der Lee, Abule Ebro, Asaah Ndambi, Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga, Marijke Dijkshoorn-Dekker, Siemen van Berkum

The transformation of food systems in low-and middle-income countries is indispensable for attaining food and nutrition security. To analyse and better understand food system transition, transition pathway approach is commonly used as a tool to engage key stakeholders in looking for a solution to a major structural food system issue that requires a transition. Inherent in these food system transition pathways are trade-offs and synergies within or between different dimensions of sustainability, scales, and types of actors. The objective of this study was to identify and assess with the stakeholders the trade-offs and synergies in transition pathways of doubling dairy consumption in Ethiopia. Of the four transition pathways developed of doubling dairy consumption within 15 years, we focused on two pathways in this study. The “peri-urban pathway” focused on the vision that all low-income peri-urban consumers have access to safe and affordable pasteurized milk by 2037 while the “ rural pathway” aimed at access to pasteurized milk by all rural pregnant and lactating women, and children under 7 years. Fifteen trade-offs were identified by the participants for the two pathways. Scores of the importance of each trade-off ranged from 1 to 3 on a Likert scale from 1 (low) to 4 (very high) with average of 2.47 ± 0.42 and 2.6 ± 0.371 for peri-urban and rural pathways, respectively. Applying transition pathway approach to this case study shows that stakeholder participation is essential to assessment of trade-offs and synergies in food system transition, and that it is context-specific and pathway-dependent.

低收入和中等收入国家的粮食系统转型对于实现粮食和营养安全是不可或缺的。为了分析和更好地理解粮食系统转型,转型途径方法通常被用作一种工具,用于让关键利益相关者参与寻找需要转型的主要结构性粮食系统问题的解决方案。这些粮食系统转型途径所固有的是可持续性、规模和行为者类型的不同维度内部或之间的权衡和协同作用。本研究的目的是确定和评估利益相关者在埃塞俄比亚乳制品消费翻番的过渡途径中的权衡和协同作用。在15年内乳制品消费量翻一番的四种过渡途径中,我们在本研究中重点关注了两种途径。“城郊路径”的重点是到2037年所有城郊低收入消费者都能获得安全、负担得起的巴氏奶,而“农村路径”的目标是所有农村孕妇、哺乳期妇女和7岁以下儿童都能获得巴氏奶。参与者为这两种途径确定了15种权衡。每个权衡的重要性得分在李克特量表上从1(低)到4(非常高)不等,平均为2.47±0.42和2.6±0.371。将转型途径方法应用于本案例研究表明,利益相关者的参与对于评估粮食系统转型中的权衡和协同作用至关重要,并且它是具体情况和途径依赖的。
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引用次数: 0
International migration and dietary diversity of left-behind households: evidence from India 国际移民与留守家庭饮食多样性:来自印度的证据
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01540-w
Pooja Batra, Ajay Sharma

In this paper, we analyse the impact of international migration on the food consumption and dietary diversity of left-behind households. Using the Kerala migration survey 2011, we study whether households with emigrants (on account of international migration) have higher consumption expenditure and improved dietary diversity than their non-migrating counterparts. We use ordinary least square and instrumental variable approach to answer this question. The key findings are that: a) emigrant households have higher overall consumption expenditure as well as higher expenditure on food; b) we find that international migration leads to increase in the dietary diversity of left behind households. Further, we explore the effect on food sub-group expenditure for both rural and urban households. We find that emigrant households spend more on protein (milk, pulses and egg, fish and meat), at the same time there is higher spending on non-healthy food habits (processed and ready to eat food items) among them.

本文分析了国际移民对留守家庭食物消费和饮食多样性的影响。利用2011年喀拉拉邦移民调查,我们研究了移民家庭(由于国际移民)是否比非移民家庭有更高的消费支出和更好的饮食多样性。我们使用普通最小二乘法和工具变量法来回答这个问题。主要发现是:a)移民家庭整体消费支出较高,食品支出也较高;B)我们发现国际移民导致留守家庭饮食多样性的增加。进一步,我们探讨了对农村和城市家庭食品亚组支出的影响。我们发现,移民家庭在蛋白质(牛奶、豆类和鸡蛋、鱼类和肉类)上的支出更多,同时在非健康饮食习惯(加工和即食食品)上的支出也更高。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural crime victimization and food security outcomes among smallholder farmers in rural Tanzania 坦桑尼亚农村小农的农业犯罪受害与粮食安全结果
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01541-9
Nelson A. Ochieng, Ulrike Grote

This article explores the relationship between agricultural crime victimization, including theft and vandalism of crops and livestock, and food security of smallholder farming households. We use a distinctive panel dataset from rural Tanzania collected in 2016, 2018, and 2021 and measure various dimensions of food security using the Food Consumption Score (FCS), the Household Food Insecurity Access Score (HFIAS) and the Reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). We use the linear two-way fixed effects model to analyze the association between victimization and FCS, and Tobit regression model for HFIAS and rCSI. Our findings reveal that on average, households suffer losses from crime equivalent to 6% of total food expenditure in a year. While vandalism is consistently linked to lower food security across all indicators, theft of crops and livestock is associated with higher HFIAS and rCSI scores, suggesting greater food insecurity. These findings necessitate the need to recognize agricultural crime victimization as an emerging threat to food security that requires attention and intervention in rural communities.

本文探讨了农业犯罪受害(包括盗窃和破坏作物和牲畜)与小农家庭粮食安全之间的关系。我们使用了2016年、2018年和2021年收集的坦桑尼亚农村地区独特的面板数据集,并使用食品消费得分(FCS)、家庭粮食不安全获取得分(HFIAS)和减少应对策略指数(rCSI)来衡量粮食安全的各个维度。我们使用线性双向固定效应模型分析受害与FCS之间的关系,并使用Tobit回归模型分析HFIAS与rCSI之间的关系。我们的研究结果显示,平均而言,家庭每年因犯罪而遭受的损失相当于食品总支出的6%。在所有指标中,破坏行为都与较低的粮食安全水平有关,而盗窃作物和牲畜与较高的HFIAS和rCSI得分有关,表明粮食不安全状况更严重。这些调查结果表明,必须认识到农业犯罪受害是对粮食安全的新威胁,需要在农村社区予以关注和干预。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of food system interventions to increase fruit and vegetable intake among urban adults in Nigeria and Vietnam 粮食系统干预措施对尼日利亚和越南城市成年人增加水果和蔬菜摄入量的影响
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01529-5
Giulia Pastori, Elise F. Talsma, Edith J. M. Feskens, Le Thi Huong, Folake O. Samuel, Oluyemisi F. Shittu, Toluwalope E. Eyinla, Alan de Brauw, Kate Ambler, Sigrid Wertheim-Heck, Ricardo Hernandez, Brice Even, Gennifer Meldrum, Amanda De Filippo, Le Thi Thanh Xuan, Ngo Thi Ha Phuong, Truong Tuyet Mai, Mark Lundy, Inge D. Brouwer

Fruit and vegetable consumption is below the WHO recommendations, globally, in Southeast Asia, and in West Africa. Affordability, accessibility, and acceptability are the main drivers of consumption. Nutrition-sensitive food system interventions that address these drivers may be effective in increasing fruit and vegetable consumption. This study evaluates the effect of an integrated nutrition-sensitive program that aimed to increase fruit and vegetable consumption in low-income urban adults in Hanoi, Vietnam (n = 582), and Ibadan, Nigeria (n = 626), through the simultaneous implementation of three interventions at the market and consumer levels. Fruit and vegetable intake data were collected after eight months of exposure to the program with repeated quantitative 24-hour recalls and exposure effect was estimated with inverse probability weighting with regression adjustment, adjusting for potential confounders. The impact size on total fruits and vegetables (144 g/d, 95%CI 93, 196), fruits (137 g/d, 95%CI 93, 183) and vegetables (6 g/d, 95%CI -12, 24) showed that intake was higher in the exposed Nigerian population than the control group. In Vietnam, intakes of fruits and vegetables in the exposed group did not statistically differ from the control group when controlling for differences between groups with propensity scores. Participants exposed to all three interventions reported slightly higher intakes compared to those who were exposed to fewer interventions, but these differences were not statistically significant. Integrated approaches of nutrition-sensitive food system interventions need to be implemented to increase fruit and vegetable consumption. Co-creation of interventions provides the possibility to address the different drivers and barriers of healthy diets specific of the context.

在全球、东南亚和西非,水果和蔬菜的消费量低于世卫组织的建议。可负担性、可获得性和可接受性是消费的主要驱动力。针对这些驱动因素的营养敏感型粮食系统干预措施可能对增加水果和蔬菜消费有效。本研究评估了一项综合营养敏感计划的效果,该计划旨在通过在市场和消费者层面同时实施三种干预措施,增加越南河内(n = 582)和尼日利亚伊巴丹(n = 626)的低收入城市成年人的水果和蔬菜消费。通过重复定量的24小时回忆,在暴露于该程序8个月后收集水果和蔬菜摄入量数据,并通过回归调整的逆概率加权来估计暴露效应,调整了潜在的混杂因素。对水果和蔬菜总量(144克/天,95%可信区间为93、196)、水果(137克/天,95%可信区间为93、183)和蔬菜(6克/天,95%可信区间为-12、24)的影响大小表明,受辐射的尼日利亚人群的摄入量高于对照组。在越南,当用倾向分数控制各组之间的差异时,暴露组的水果和蔬菜摄入量与对照组没有统计学差异。与接受较少干预的参与者相比,接受所有三种干预的参与者报告的摄入量略高,但这些差异在统计上并不显著。需要实施营养敏感型粮食系统干预的综合方法,以增加水果和蔬菜消费。共同制定干预措施为解决具体情况下健康饮食的不同驱动因素和障碍提供了可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Post-disaster food safety and food security: An example of the Türkiye earthquake 灾后食品安全与粮食保障:以日本地震为例
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-22 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01539-3
Muhammet Ali ÇAKIR, Yeliz MERCAN, Necattin Cihat İÇYER, Fatih BOZKURT

The present study aimed to determine the risk levels affecting food safety and security in foods distributed to earthquake victims by organizations. This descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted in food distribution organizations in Kahramanmaraş and Hatay between 20–24 February 2023 (N = 40). The data were collected face-to-face by using the Descriptive Data Form and Food Safety and Security Observation Form (FSSOF) developed by the researchers. According to FSSOF, organizations had a 41.6% risk concerning food safety and security. According to the multiple linear regression analysis, organizations that did not control the foods were found to be associated with an increased total score of FSSOF (β: -0.527, p = 0.010). No relationships could be found between the type of organization, the population served, having a food technologist and/or dietitian, the distance between the organization and waste, and the total scores of FSSOF (p > 0.05). The organizations that did not control the food were found to be associated with Organization-specific conditions (β: -0.623, p = 0.002), Food distribution conditions (β: -0.531, p = 0.015), Personnel hygiene (β: -0.608, p = 0.005), Food security (β: -0.480, p = 0.036) and Environmental conditions (β: -0.537, p = 0.018) were found to be associated with an increased level of risks. Also, not having an engineer and/or dietitian was associated with an increased risk of Food storage practices (β: -0.469, p = 0.005), and increased the number of staff was associated with an increased risk of Organization-specific conditions (β: 0.348, p = 0.007). The level of risk of the organizations concerning food safety and security was found to be relatively high. Control of the food provided was the most important determinant of food safety and security.

本研究旨在确定影响各组织分发给地震灾民的食品安全和安全的风险水平。这项描述性和横断面研究于2023年2月20日至24日在kahramanmaraku和Hatay的食品分配组织中进行(N = 40)。采用自行编制的描述性数据表和食品安全保障观察表面对面采集数据。根据FSSOF的数据,组织在食品安全和保障方面的风险为41.6%。根据多元线性回归分析,发现不控制食品的组织与FSSOF总分增加相关(β: -0.527, p = 0.010)。机构类型、服务人群、是否有食品技师和/或营养师、机构与废物之间的距离与FSSOF总分之间没有关系(p > 0.05)。未控制食品的组织被发现与组织特定条件(β: -0.623, p = 0.002)、食品分配条件(β: -0.531, p = 0.015)、人员卫生(β: -0.608, p = 0.005)、食品安全(β: -0.480, p = 0.036)和环境条件(β: -0.537, p = 0.018)相关,风险水平增加。此外,没有工程师和/或营养师与食品储存操作风险增加相关(β: -0.469, p = 0.005),工作人员数量的增加与本组织特定条件风险增加相关(β: 0.348, p = 0.007)。各组织在食品安全和保障方面的风险水平相对较高。对所提供食品的控制是食品安全和保障的最重要决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change-driven vulnerability of Mexico regions toward food insecurity 气候变化导致的墨西哥地区粮食不安全脆弱性
IF 5.6 1区 农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1007/s12571-025-01536-6
Yadihra Cruz-Sánchez, Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas

Climate change is drastically affecting agriculture, markets, and infrastructure, putting global food security at risk. Mexico faces major challenges, with a significant portion of its population experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity. This study presents a novel methodology for assessing food security in Mexico that incorporates the impacts of climate change. The methodology combines a thorough analysis of four dimensions: availability, access, use, and stability. It includes 48 variables at the municipality level and establishes a baseline scenario with data from 2020. It projects variables to two future scenarios: one that follows the observed trend of the last 20 years and another that includes climate change. Principal component analysis and Dalenius and Hodges stratification are used to classify municipalities into very high, high, medium, and low food security categories. Low food security indicates municipalities with poor conditions on most dimensions, while very high food security indicates those with optimal conditions on all variables. Food security problems are defined as municipalities with medium or low food security. Results indicate that, in the baseline scenario, 45% of municipalities face food security problems, including issues such as insufficient agricultural productivity and limited access to food due to economic and/or infrastructural constraints, as well as health-related problems and lack of basic services. Among municipalities, 15% were classified as having low food security. Future projections suggest an increase in food insecurity by 6% and 7% in the trend and climate change scenarios, respectively, reaching 51% and 52% of municipalities. The greatest impact of food insecurity is in the southern and mountainous central-northern regions, with 12 areas identified as most vulnerable. These areas should be prioritized for mitigating climate change impacts on food security. The recommended indicators can help in monitoring climate-related risks and guide effective policy responses.

气候变化正在严重影响农业、市场和基础设施,使全球粮食安全面临风险。墨西哥面临着重大挑战,其很大一部分人口正经历中度至严重的粮食不安全。这项研究提出了一种新的方法来评估墨西哥的粮食安全,其中包括气候变化的影响。该方法结合了对四个维度的全面分析:可用性、访问、使用和稳定性。它包括48个市级变量,并根据2020年以来的数据建立了一个基线情景。它预测了两种未来情景的变量:一种遵循过去20年观察到的趋势,另一种包括气候变化。主成分分析和Dalenius和Hodges分层将城市划分为非常高、高、中、低粮食安全类别。低粮食安全表明城市在大多数方面的条件都很差,而非常高的粮食安全表明城市在所有变量上都有最佳条件。粮食安全问题被定义为粮食安全程度中等或较低的城市。结果表明,在基线情景中,45%的城市面临粮食安全问题,包括农业生产力不足和由于经济和/或基础设施限制而获得粮食的机会有限等问题,以及与健康有关的问题和缺乏基本服务等问题。在各市中,15%被列为粮食安全水平较低。未来的预测表明,在趋势和气候变化情景下,粮食不安全状况将分别增加6%和7%,达到51%和52%的城市。粮食不安全的影响最大的是南部和中北部山区,有12个地区被确定为最脆弱地区。应优先考虑这些领域,以减轻气候变化对粮食安全的影响。建议的指标有助于监测气候相关风险并指导有效的政策应对。
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引用次数: 0
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Food Security
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