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Ada-GCNLSTM: An adaptive urban crime spatiotemporal prediction model Ada-GCNLSTM:自适应城市犯罪时空预测模型
IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.003
Miaoxuan Shan , Chunlin Ye , Peng Chen , Shufan Peng
Accurate crime prediction is crucial for the proactive allocation of law enforcement resources and ensuring urban safety. A major challenge in achieving accurate predictions lies in identifying generalized patterns of criminal behavior from spatiotemporal features in crime data. Additionally, the inherent randomness and volatility of crime data at the spatiotemporal level introduce noise, which can mislead prediction models. While many effective spatiotemporal crime prediction methods have been proposed, most overlook this issue, reducing their ability to generalize. In this paper, we introduce a novel deep learning-based model, adaptive-GCNLSTM (Ada-GCNLSTM). Specifically, in the spatial feature extraction module, we enhance the model's ability to capture crime spatial distributions by leveraging graph convolutional networks to model spatial dependencies in conjunction with the maximum mean discrepancy to extract the universal features of crime data. We then incorporate a memory network based on long short-term memory network to capture the underlying relationships between temporal features. Through extensive experiments, our model demonstrates an average improvement of 11.7% in mean absolute error and 2.7% in root mean squared error across the three datasets, outperforming the best baseline model. These results underscore the effectiveness of our approach in enhancing crime prediction accuracy.
准确的犯罪预测对于积极配置执法资源和保障城市安全至关重要。实现准确预测的一个主要挑战在于从犯罪数据的时空特征中识别犯罪行为的一般模式。此外,犯罪数据在时空水平上固有的随机性和波动性会引入噪声,这可能会误导预测模型。虽然已经提出了许多有效的时空犯罪预测方法,但大多数方法都忽略了这一问题,从而降低了它们的泛化能力。本文介绍了一种新的基于深度学习的自适应gcnlstm (Ada-GCNLSTM)模型。具体来说,在空间特征提取模块中,我们通过利用图卷积网络来建模空间依赖关系,并结合最大平均差异来提取犯罪数据的普遍特征,从而增强了模型捕捉犯罪空间分布的能力。然后,我们结合了一个基于长短期记忆网络的记忆网络来捕捉时间特征之间的潜在关系。通过大量的实验,我们的模型在三个数据集上的平均绝对误差平均提高了11.7%,均方根误差平均提高了2.7%,优于最佳基线模型。这些结果突显了我们的方法在提高犯罪预测准确度方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-scale characterization of industrial infrastructure vulnerability to multiple hazards in their territories 工业基础设施对多种灾害脆弱性的多尺度表征
IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.004
David Javier Castro Rodriguez, Antonello A. Barresi, Micaela Demichela
Directive 2022/2557 from the European Commission aims to enhance the resilience of critical entities in Europe by integrating with existing European legislation, but it lacks explicit guidance on addressing vulnerabilities. Specifically, major hazard industries (MHIs) are critical infrastructures that face unique risks arising from the interactions of natural and technological hazards (NaTech events); nevertheless, existing policies frequently overlook the potential vulnerabilities of process plants to these complex phenomena. The goal of this research was to systematically characterize the vulnerability of industrial critical infrastructures (ICIs) to various hazards in their territories. A multi-scale procedure was implemented in the Italian context as a case study, where spatial analyses were developed using open data. Starting from the Italian national inventory, the MHIs were clustered in industrial macro-sectors and represented nationally by regions, relating their distribution to meteorological or geophysical data of interest. At the regional scale, the MHIs of the Piedmont Region were represented as punctual elements, associating the population within potential damage zones by province. At the municipal scale, a previously validated multi-hazard tool for vulnerability assessment was then tailored to a reduced scale for specific applications in an industrial context. This adaptation, which considers the two-way interaction between an energetic critical infrastructure and various hazards in its surroundings, delivers a spatial vulnerability profile that may complement the probabilistic analysis of industrial incidental scenarios. In summary, this framework may raise the stakeholders awareness at various levels and with different interests within the industrial accident control decision-making chain, from operators to competent authorities.
欧盟委员会的2022/2557号指令旨在通过与现有的欧洲立法相结合来增强欧洲关键实体的弹性,但它缺乏关于解决脆弱性的明确指导。具体来说,主要危害行业(MHIs)是面临自然灾害和技术灾害(NaTech事件)相互作用所产生的独特风险的关键基础设施;然而,现有的政策经常忽视了加工工厂对这些复杂现象的潜在脆弱性。本研究的目的是系统地描述工业关键基础设施(ici)在其领土内对各种危害的脆弱性。在意大利的背景下实施了一个多尺度程序作为案例研究,其中使用开放数据开发了空间分析。从意大利国家清单开始,MHIs集中在工业宏观部门,并按地区代表全国,将其分布与感兴趣的气象或地球物理数据联系起来。在区域尺度上,山前地区的mhi被表示为准时元素,以省为单位将潜在破坏区内的人口联系起来。在市政规模上,先前经过验证的多灾害脆弱性评估工具随后被量身定制,以缩小规模,适用于工业环境中的特定应用。这种适应性考虑了充满活力的关键基础设施与周围各种危险之间的双向相互作用,提供了一个空间脆弱性概况,可以补充工业事故情景的概率分析。综上所述,该框架可以提高从运营商到主管部门等工业事故控制决策链中各个层面和不同利益相关者的意识。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the resilience of startups in the COVID-19 pandemic using the system dynamics approach 使用系统动力学方法对COVID-19大流行中初创公司的弹性进行建模
IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.10.004
Mahdi Homayounfar , Faezeh Kamali-Chirani , Adel Pourghader Chobar , Amir Daneshvar
The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted startups, disrupting operations, consumer behavior, and market dynamics. Addressing these challenges necessitates an in-depth analysis of startups' vulnerabilities and the development of effective strategies to bolster their resilience and sustainability. This study introduces a combined thematic analysis and system dynamics approach to enhance startups' resilience during the pandemic. A qualitative thematic analysis was employed to identify the key factors influencing resilience. Semi-structured interviews with 12 experts provided data categorized into 21 themes across four dimensions: team, founder, human resources, and startup characteristics. Building on the qualitative phase, a system dynamics model was developed, comprising 32 auxiliary variables, five flow variables, four constants, and four stock variables. Four scenarios were devised to evaluate resilience within this model, reflecting varying degrees of financial strength, government support, and crisis management improvements. The results highlight the effectiveness of Scenario 4, which achieved the highest resilience improvement, driven by a 5 % increase in financial strength, a 5 % increase in government support, and a 10 % enhancement in crisis management. These findings offer critical insights for stakeholders and researchers seeking to strengthen startup resilience during crises.
2019冠状病毒病大流行深刻影响了初创企业,扰乱了运营、消费者行为和市场动态。应对这些挑战需要对初创企业的脆弱性进行深入分析,并制定有效的战略来增强其弹性和可持续性。本研究引入了主题分析和系统动力学相结合的方法,以增强创业公司在疫情期间的应变能力。采用定性专题分析来确定影响弹性的关键因素。与12位专家进行的半结构化访谈提供了21个主题的数据,涉及四个维度:团队、创始人、人力资源和初创企业特征。在定性阶段的基础上,建立了包含32个辅助变量、5个流量变量、4个常数变量和4个存量变量的系统动力学模型。设计了四种情景来评估该模型中的复原力,反映了不同程度的财政实力、政府支持和危机管理改进。结果突出了情景4的有效性,在财政实力增加5%、政府支持增加5%和危机管理加强10%的推动下,情景4实现了最大的复原力改善。这些发现为寻求在危机期间加强初创企业弹性的利益相关者和研究人员提供了重要见解。
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引用次数: 0
Emergency scenario modeling for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks 商业园区动态风险分析的应急情景建模
IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.11.002
Rodríguez Pillaga Renán Teodoro , Bañuls Víctor A.
This study is novel, as it aims to generate an emergency scenario model for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks to help decision-makers provide an optimal response in any emergency. To this end, the CIA-ISM methodology, which is the combination of Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Model (ISM), allows the representation of all possible connections among risks, as well as representing real events under conditions of uncertainty. The proposed model integrates the use of an information system for the generation of multiple emergency scenarios that include the capture of complex interactions among agents, resources and variable environmental conditions. The results highlight the capacity of the proposed emergency scenario model based on CIA-ISM for the analysis of dynamic risks in business parks, identification of hidden vulnerabilities and evaluation of mitigation strategies in real-time. This study not only expands the theoretical knowledge of emergency management but also provides a useful tool to improve preparedness and response capacity in the face of adverse events in dynamic and complex environments.
本研究的新颖之处在于,它旨在建立一个应急情景模型,用于分析商业园区的动态风险,以帮助决策者在任何紧急情况下提供最佳的应对措施。为此,CIA-ISM方法,即交叉影响分析(CIA)和解释结构模型(ISM)的结合,可以表示风险之间所有可能的联系,也可以表示不确定条件下的真实事件。所提出的模型集成了信息系统的使用,用于生成多种紧急情况,包括捕获代理、资源和可变环境条件之间的复杂相互作用。结果表明,基于CIA-ISM的应急情景模型能够实时分析商业园区的动态风险,识别潜在漏洞并评估缓解策略。本研究不仅拓展了应急管理的理论知识,而且为提高面对动态复杂环境中不良事件的准备和响应能力提供了有用的工具。
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引用次数: 0
Safe evacuation framework with intelligent dynamic exit sign system and demonstration in tunnel fire 具有智能动态出口标识系统的安全疏散框架及隧道火灾演示
IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2024.12.001
Ho Yin Wong , Meng Wang , Xiaoning Zhang , Yuxin Zhang , Ming Chi Wong , Xinyan Huang
Emergency exit sign systems guide occupants to safety, but they may fail in fires when smoke blocks routes. This study introduces an Intelligent Dynamic Exit Sign (IDES) system, integrating a fire-detection sensor network with dynamic sign patterns, which could enhance evacuation safety by always guiding occupants away from hazards. The system's operation framework and design rules ensure effective implementation. To address ethical concerns in complex scenarios, IDES includes a reversion mechanism that switches dynamic signs back to conventional static signs when necessary. The system's effectiveness is demonstrated through prototyping in a lab-scale tunnel model, assessing both the dynamic patterns and hardware reliability. Results show the potential of IDES to automatically optimize evacuation procedures and occupant safety during emergencies. Furthermore, the study delves into challenges associated with real-world implementation and offers insights for future applications of this innovative safety solution in more complex built environments.
紧急出口标志系统引导居住者到安全的地方,但当烟雾阻挡路线时,它们可能在火灾中失效。本文介绍了一种智能动态出口标志(IDES)系统,该系统集成了火灾探测传感器网络和动态标志模式,可以通过始终引导居住者远离危险来提高疏散安全性。系统的运行框架和设计规则保证了系统的有效实施。为了解决复杂情况下的伦理问题,ide包括一个转换机制,在必要时将动态标志切换回传统的静态标志。通过在实验室规模的隧道模型中进行原型设计,评估了系统的动态模式和硬件可靠性,证明了系统的有效性。结果表明,在紧急情况下,IDES具有自动优化疏散程序和乘员安全的潜力。此外,该研究深入研究了与现实世界实施相关的挑战,并为这种创新的安全解决方案在更复杂的建筑环境中的未来应用提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.4 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.4 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.4 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.4 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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引用次数: 0
IF 3.4 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-01-01
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安全科学与韧性(英文)
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