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2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Confidence Intervals and Regions for Quantiles using Conditional Monte Carlo and Generalized Likelihood Ratios 使用条件蒙特卡罗和广义似然比的分位数置信区间和区域
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383910
Lei Lei, C. Alexopoulos, Yijie Peng, James R. Wilson
This article develops confidence intervals (CIs) and confidence regions (CRs) for quantiles based on independent realizations of a simulation response. The methodology uses a combination of conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) and the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) method. While batching and sectioning methods partition the sample into nonoverlapping batches, and construct CIs and CRs by estimating the asymptotic variance using sample quantiles from each batch, the proposed techniques directly estimate the underlying probability density function of the response. Numerical results show that the CIs constructed by applying CMC, GLR, and sectioning lead to comparable coverage results, which are closer to the targets compared with batching alone for relatively small samples; and the coverage rates of the CRs constructed by applying CMC and GLR are closer to the targets than both sectioning and batching when the sample size is relatively small and the number of probability levels is relatively large.
本文基于模拟响应的独立实现,开发了分位数的置信区间(ci)和置信区域(cr)。该方法结合了条件蒙特卡罗(CMC)和广义似然比(GLR)方法。批处理和切片方法将样本划分为不重叠的批次,并通过使用每个批次的样本分位数估计渐近方差来构建ci和cr,而所提出的技术直接估计响应的潜在概率密度函数。数值结果表明,在相对较小的样本中,应用CMC、GLR和切片构建的ci的覆盖结果与单独使用批处理相比更接近目标;在样本量较小、概率层次数量较多的情况下,应用CMC和GLR构建的cr的覆盖率比分段和分批构建的cr更接近目标。
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引用次数: 0
Deep Q-Network Model for Dynamic Job Shop Scheduling Pproblem Based on Discrete Event Simulation 基于离散事件仿真的动态作业车间调度问题深度q -网络模型
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383986
Y. Turgut, C. Bozdag
In the last few decades, dynamic job scheduling problems (DJSPs) has received more attention from researchers and practitioners. However, the potential of reinforcement learning (RL) methods has not been exploited adequately for solving DJSPs. In this work deep Q-network (DQN) model is applied to train an agent to learn how to schedule the jobs dynamically by minimizing the delay time of jobs. The DQN model is trained based on a discrete event simulation experiment. The model is tested by comparing the trained DQN model against two popular dispatching rules, shortest processing time and earliest due date. The obtained results indicate that the DQN model has a better performance than these dispatching rules.
在过去的几十年里,动态作业调度问题越来越受到研究者和实践者的关注。然而,强化学习(RL)方法的潜力尚未被充分利用来解决djsp。本文采用深度q -网络(deep Q-network, DQN)模型来训练智能体学习如何通过最小化作业的延迟时间来动态调度作业。基于离散事件仿真实验对DQN模型进行了训练。通过将训练好的DQN模型与两种流行的调度规则最短处理时间和最早到期日进行比较,对模型进行了检验。结果表明,DQN模型比这些调度规则具有更好的性能。
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引用次数: 2
First Steps Towards Bridging Simulation and Ontology to Ease the Model Creation on the Example of Semiconductor Industry 以半导体工业为例,实现仿真与本体的桥梁化以简化模型的创建
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384102
Nour Ramzy, Christian James Martens, Shreya Singh, Thomas Ponsignon, H. Ehm
With diverse product mixes in fabs, high demand volatility, and numerous manufacturing steps spread across different facilities, it is impossible to analyze the combined impacts of multiple operations in semiconductor supply chains without a modeling tool like simulation. This paper explains how ontologies can be used to develop and deploy simulation applications, with interoperability and knowledge sharing at the semantic level. This paper proposes a concept to automatically build simulations using ontologies and its preliminary results. The proposed approach seeks to save time and effort expended in recreating the information for different use cases that already exists elsewhere. The use case provides first indications that with an enhancement of a so-called Digital Reference with Semantic Web Technologies, modeling and simulation of semiconductor supply chains will not only become much faster but also require less modeling efforts because of the reusability property.
由于晶圆厂的产品组合多种多样,需求波动大,并且许多制造步骤分布在不同的设施中,如果没有模拟等建模工具,就不可能分析半导体供应链中多个操作的综合影响。本文解释了如何使用本体来开发和部署仿真应用程序,并在语义层实现互操作性和知识共享。本文提出了一种利用本体自动构建仿真的概念及其初步成果。建议的方法旨在节省为已经存在于其他地方的不同用例重新创建信息所花费的时间和精力。该用例首次表明,通过使用语义Web技术增强所谓的数字参考,半导体供应链的建模和仿真不仅会变得更快,而且由于可重用性的特性,需要更少的建模工作。
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引用次数: 0
Utilizing Spatio-Temporal Data in Multi-Agent Simulation 时空数据在多智能体仿真中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384124
Daniel Glake, N. Ritter, T. Clemen
Spatio-temporal properties strongly influence a large proportion of multi-agent simulations (MAS) in their application domains. Time-dependent simulations benefit from correct and time-sensitive input data that match the current simulated time or offer the possibility to take into account previous simulation states in their modelling perspective. In this paper, we present the concepts and semantics of data-driven simulations with vector and raster data and extend them by a time dimension that applies at run-time within the simulation execution or in conjunction with the definition of MAS models. We show that the semantics consider the evolution of spatio-temporal objects with their temporal relationships between spatial entities.
时空特性对多智能体仿真(MAS)的应用领域有很大影响。时间相关的模拟受益于与当前模拟时间匹配的正确和时间敏感的输入数据,或者提供在建模角度考虑先前模拟状态的可能性。在本文中,我们用矢量和栅格数据提出了数据驱动模拟的概念和语义,并通过在模拟执行的运行时或与MAS模型定义一起应用的时间维度对它们进行了扩展。我们表明,语义考虑了时空对象及其在空间实体之间的时间关系的演变。
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引用次数: 2
A Simheuristic for the Stochastic Two-Echelon Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem 随机两梯队车辆路径问题的一种相似启发式算法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383860
Angie Ramírez-Villamil, J. Montoya-Torres, Anicia Jaegler
Two-echelon distribution systems are very common in last-mile supply chains and urban logistics systems. The problem consists of delivering goods from one depot to a set of satellites usually located outside urban areas and from there to a set of geographically dispersed customers. This problem is modeled as a two-echelon vehicle routing problem (2E-VRP), which is known to be computationally difficult to solve. This paper proposes a solution approach based on optimization-simulation to solve the 2E-VRP with stochastic travel times. For the objective function, this paper considers the minimization of travel times. The efficiency of the solution approach is analyzed against the solution of the deterministic counterpart, which is solved using both exact and approximation approaches. The impact of adding stochastic travel speeds as part of the objective function is evaluated through simulation. Experiments are run using real data from several convenience stores in the city of Bogota, Colombia.
两级配送系统在最后一英里供应链和城市物流系统中非常常见。这个问题包括将货物从一个仓库运送到通常位于城市地区以外的一组卫星,然后从那里运送到一组地理上分散的客户。该问题被建模为一个两梯队车辆路径问题(2E-VRP),已知该问题在计算上难以解决。本文提出了一种基于优化仿真的求解具有随机行程时间的2E-VRP的方法。对于目标函数,本文考虑了行程时间的最小化。针对确定性对应物的解,分析了求解方法的效率,确定对应物采用精确和近似两种方法求解。通过仿真评估了将随机车速作为目标函数的一部分所产生的影响。实验使用了哥伦比亚波哥大市几家便利店的真实数据。
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引用次数: 3
A Deep Reinforcement Learning Approach for Optimal Replenishment Policy in A Vendor Managed Inventory Setting For Semiconductors 基于深度强化学习的半导体供应商管理库存最优补货策略
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384048
Muhammad Tariq Afridi, S. Isaza, H. Ehm, Thomas Ponsignon, Abdelgafar Hamed
Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) is a mainstream supply chain collaboration model. Measurement approaches defining minimum and maximum inventory levels for avoiding product shortages and over-stocking are rampant. No approach undertakes the responsibility aspect concerning inventory level status, especially in semiconductor industry which is confronted with short product life cycles, long process times, and volatile demand patterns. In this work, a root-cause enabling VMI performance measurement approach to assign responsibilities for poor performance is undertaken. Additionally, a solution methodology based on reinforcement learning is proposed for determining optimal replenishment policy in a VMI setting. Using a simulation model, different demand scenarios are generated based on real data from Infineon Technologies AG and compared on the basis of key performance indicators. Results obtained by the proposed method show improved performance than the current replenishment decisions of the company.
供应商管理库存(VMI)是一种主流的供应链协作模式。为避免产品短缺和过度库存而定义最小和最大库存水平的度量方法非常普遍。没有一种方法能够承担库存水平状态方面的责任,特别是在半导体行业,它面临着产品生命周期短、加工时间长、需求模式不稳定的问题。在这项工作中,一个根本原因,使VMI性能测量方法分配的责任,为较差的性能。此外,提出了一种基于强化学习的解决方案方法,用于确定VMI设置中的最佳补货策略。利用仿真模型,根据英飞凌的真实数据生成不同的需求场景,并根据关键绩效指标进行比较。结果表明,该方法比公司当前的补货决策性能有所提高。
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引用次数: 10
Using Simple Dynamic Analytic Framework To Characterize And Forecast Epidemics 用简单的动态分析框架描述和预测流行病
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383968
A. Tariq, K. Roosa, G. Chowell
Mathematical modeling provides a powerful analytic framework to investigate the transmission and control of infectious diseases. However, the reliability of the results stemming from modeling studies heavily depend on the validity of assumptions underlying the models as well as the quality of data that is employed to calibrate them. When substantial uncertainty about the epidemiology of newly emerging diseases (e.g. the generation interval, asymptomatic transmission) hampers the application of mechanistic models that incorporate modes of transmission and parameters characterizing the natural history of the disease, phenomenological growth models provide a starting point to make inferences about key transmission parameters, such as the reproduction number, and forecast the trajectory of the epidemic in order to inform public health policies. We describe in detail the methodology and application of three phenomenological growth models, the generalized-growth model, generalized logistic growth model and the Richards model in context of the COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan.
数学建模为研究传染病的传播和控制提供了一个强大的分析框架。然而,建模研究结果的可靠性在很大程度上取决于模型基础假设的有效性以及用于校准模型的数据的质量。当新出现疾病的流行病学存在很大的不确定性(例如,产生间隔、无症状传播),妨碍了将传播方式和表征疾病自然史的参数纳入其中的机制模型的应用时,现象学增长模型提供了一个起点,可以推断出关键的传播参数,例如繁殖数;并预测流行病的发展轨迹,以便为公共卫生政策提供信息。我们详细描述了三种现象学增长模型的方法和应用,即广义增长模型、广义logistic增长模型和理查兹模型在巴基斯坦COVID-19疫情背景下的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Unbiased Gradient Simulation for Zeroth-Order Optimization 零阶优化的无偏梯度模拟
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384045
Guanting Chen
We apply the Multi-Level Monte Carlo technique to get an unbiased estimator for the gradient of an optimization function. This procedure requires four exact or noisy function evaluations and produces an unbiased estimator for the gradient at one point. We apply this estimator to a non-convex stochastic programming problem. Under mild assumptions, our algorithm achieves a complexity bound independent of the dimension, compared with the typical one that grows linearly with the dimension.
我们应用多层蒙特卡罗技术得到了一个优化函数梯度的无偏估计。这个过程需要四次精确或有噪声的函数评估,并在一点上产生梯度的无偏估计。我们将这个估计量应用于一个非凸随机规划问题。在温和的假设下,与典型的随维数线性增长的复杂度界相比,我们的算法实现了与维数无关的复杂度界。
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引用次数: 0
Batch Bayesian Active Learning For Feasible Region Identification by Local Penalization 基于局部惩罚的批处理贝叶斯主动学习可行区域识别
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383951
Jixiang Qing, Nicolas Knudde, I. Couckuyt, Tom Dhaene, Kohei Shintani
Identifying all designs satisfying a set of constraints is an important part of the engineering design process. With physics-based simulation codes, evaluating the constraints becomes considerable expensive. Active learning can provide an elegant approach to efficiently characterize the feasible region, i.e., the set of feasible designs. Although active learning strategies have been proposed for this task, most of them are dealing with adding just one sample per iteration as opposed to selecting multiple samples per iteration, also known as batch active learning. While this is efficient with respect to the amount of information gained per iteration, it neglects available computation resources. We propose a batch Bayesian active learning technique for feasible region identification by assuming that the constraint function is Lipschitz continuous. In addition, we extend current state-of-the-art batch methods to also handle feasible region identification. Experiments show better performance of the proposed method than the extended batch methods.
识别满足一组约束条件的所有设计是工程设计过程的重要组成部分。对于基于物理的仿真代码,评估约束变得相当昂贵。主动学习可以提供一种优雅的方法来有效地表征可行区域,即可行设计集。虽然主动学习策略已被提出用于此任务,但大多数都是处理每次迭代只添加一个样本,而不是每次迭代选择多个样本,也称为批处理主动学习。虽然就每次迭代获得的信息量而言,这是有效的,但它忽略了可用的计算资源。在假设约束函数为Lipschitz连续的前提下,提出了一种批量贝叶斯主动学习方法用于可行区域识别。此外,我们扩展了目前最先进的批处理方法,也处理可行的区域识别。实验结果表明,该方法优于扩展批处理方法。
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引用次数: 1
Robot Collaboration Intelligence with AI 机器人协作智能与人工智能
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383899
Illhoe Hwang, Y. Jang, Seol Hwang, S. Hong, Hyunsuk Baek, Kyuhun Hahn
We present a current automation trend, robot collaboration intelligence, to control and manage individual industrial robots to collaborate intelligently with advanced AI technologies. To increase the level of flexibility in manufacturing lines and warehouse/distribution centers, flexible agent–type robots such as automated guided vehicles have been adopted in many industries. As information technologies advance, these individual agent robots become smart and the fleet size of agents becomes larger. Robot collaboration intelligence is a newly emerging technology that allows intelligent robots to work in a more effective and efficient way. We introduce this emerging technology with industry cases and provide researchers with new research directions in automation and simulation with AI.
我们提出了当前的自动化趋势,机器人协作智能,控制和管理单个工业机器人与先进的人工智能技术智能协作。为了提高生产线和仓库/配送中心的灵活性,许多行业都采用了柔性代理型机器人,如自动导引车。随着信息技术的进步,这些个体代理机器人变得越来越智能,代理团队的规模也越来越大。机器人协同智能是一种新兴的技术,它使智能机器人以更有效和高效的方式工作。通过行业案例介绍这一新兴技术,为研究人员在人工智能自动化和仿真方面提供新的研究方向。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
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