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2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)最新文献

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Approximating the Lévy-Frailty Marshall-Olkin Model for Failure Times 失败时间的l<s:1> -脆弱马歇尔-奥尔金模型的近似
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383929
Javiera Barrera, Guido Lagos
In this paper we approximate the last, close-to-first, and what we call quantile failure times of a system, when the system-components’ failure times are modeled according to a Levy-frailty Marshall-Olkin (LFMO) distribution. The LFMO distribution is a fairly recent model that can be used to model components failing simultaneously in groups. One of its prominent features is that the failure times of the components are conditionally iid; indeed, the failure times are iid exponential when conditioned on the path of a given Lévy subordinator process. We are motivated by further studying the order statistics of the LFMO distribution, as recently Barrera and Lagos (2020) showed an atypical behavior for the upper-order statistics. We are also motivated by approximating the system when it has an astronomically large number of components. We perform computational experiments that show significative variations in the convergence speeds of our approximations.
在本文中,当系统组件的故障时间根据levy - weak Marshall-Olkin (LFMO)分布建模时,我们近似了系统的最后、最接近第一和我们称之为分位数的故障时间。LFMO分布是一个相当新的模型,可用于对组中同时失效的组件进行建模。它的一个突出特点是部件的失效次数是有条件的;事实上,当给定的lsamvy从属过程的路径为条件时,失败时间是指数型的。我们的动机是进一步研究LFMO分布的阶统计量,因为最近Barrera和Lagos(2020)显示了上阶统计量的非典型行为。当这个系统有天文数字般多的组成部分时,我们也会对它进行近似。我们进行了计算实验,显示了我们的近似收敛速度的显著变化。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Strain On Hospital Capacity During A Localized Epidemic Using A Calibrated Hospitalization Microsimulation 使用校准的住院微观模拟评估局部流行病期间医院能力的压力
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384123
Kasey Jones, Emily C Hadley, Sarah K. Rhea, E. Lofgren
The ability of healthcare systems to provide patient care can become disrupted and overwhelmed during a major epidemic or pandemic. We adapted an existing hospitalization microsimulation of North Carolina to assess the impact of a localized epidemic of a fictitious pathogen on inpatient hospital bed availability in the same locale. As area hospital beds reach capacity, agents are turned away and seek treatment at different hospital locations. We explore how variability in the duration and severity of an epidemic affects hospital capacity in different North Carolina counties. We analyze various epidemic scenarios and provide insights into how many days counties and hospitals would have to prepare for a surge in capacity.
在重大流行病或大流行期间,卫生保健系统提供患者护理的能力可能会中断和不堪重负。我们改编了北卡罗来纳州现有的住院微观模拟,以评估一种虚构病原体的局部流行对同一地区住院病床可用性的影响。当地区医院的病床达到容量时,特工们被拒之门外,并在不同的医院地点寻求治疗。我们探讨了流行病持续时间和严重程度的变化如何影响北卡罗来纳州不同县的医院容量。我们分析了各种疫情情况,并提供了各县和医院为应对能力激增需要准备多少天的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation-Aided Assessment of Team Performance: The Effects of Transient Underachievement and Knowledge Transfer 团队绩效模拟辅助评估:短暂性学习不良与知识转移的影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383909
Yaileen M. Méndez-Vázquez, D. Nembhard, Mauricio Cabrera-Réos
Many organizations have considered implementing teamwork as an approach to improve organizational performance and boost the learning process of workers. Despite the benefits offered by teamwork, literature has also shown negative aspects of this kind of work setting, including the transient initial team underachievement known as process loss. Studies have been dedicated to investigate the effect of implementing teamwork strategies on team productivity. However most of these studies remain observational in nature, partially due to the complexity associated with performing physical experimentation in teamwork manufacturing settings and the study of human cognition. The current study proposes the use of simulation as a strategy to conduct experimentation in this kind of setting. This work capitalizes on simulation to investigate the joint effect of knowledge transfer and process loss on team productivity for manufacturing settings. The joint effect of these factors on team productivity still remains unknown in current literature of teamwork.
许多组织已经考虑实施团队合作作为提高组织绩效和促进员工学习过程的一种方法。尽管团队合作带来了好处,但文献也显示了这种工作环境的消极方面,包括被称为过程损失的短暂的初始团队成就不足。研究一直致力于调查实施团队合作策略对团队生产力的影响。然而,这些研究中的大多数仍然是观察性质的,部分原因是在团队制造环境和人类认知研究中进行物理实验的复杂性。目前的研究建议使用模拟作为在这种情况下进行实验的策略。这项工作利用模拟来研究知识转移和过程损失对制造设置的团队生产力的联合影响。这些因素对团队生产力的共同影响在目前的团队合作文献中仍然是未知的。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation Modeling as a Decision Tool for Capacity Allocation in Breast Surgery 仿真建模作为乳腺手术容量分配的决策工具
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384013
Derya Kilinc, Narges Shahraki, A. Degnim, T. Hoskin, Tiffany M. Horton, M. Sir, K. Pasupathy, E. Gel
Increased surgeon workload can result in prolonged access times for patients and may lead to surgeon burnout. Management of access times through investments in care capacity and hiring of providers require an understanding of the patient access times resulting from a given level of care capacity under different patient demand scenarios. We explore the effectiveness of a simulation-based framework in providing workforce planning insights. Our framework involves modeling of patient demand by considering different groups of surgical procedures, a simulation model that allows calibration of certain parameters through the use of data, and consideration of different demand and capacity scenarios to provide an understanding of the range of patient access times that can be expected over the immediate future during the time horizon. Our results show that such a simulation-based framework can help ground workforce planning and capacity investment decisions on operational data, and help healthcare institutions manage such costs.
外科医生工作量的增加会导致患者就诊时间延长,并可能导致外科医生职业倦怠。通过投资于护理能力和雇用提供者来管理就诊时间,需要了解在不同患者需求情景下给定的护理能力水平所导致的患者就诊时间。我们探讨了基于模拟的框架在提供劳动力规划见解方面的有效性。我们的框架包括通过考虑不同组的外科手术来对患者需求进行建模,通过使用数据来校准某些参数的模拟模型,以及考虑不同的需求和容量情景,以提供对患者访问时间范围的理解,这些时间范围可以在不久的将来在时间范围内预期。我们的研究结果表明,这种基于模拟的框架可以帮助地面劳动力规划和运营数据的能力投资决策,并帮助医疗机构管理此类成本。
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引用次数: 0
Using Agent-Based Simulation for Emergent Behavior Detection in Cyber-Physical Systems 基于agent的仿真在信息物理系统中的紧急行为检测
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383956
R. Bemthuis, M. Mes, M. Iacob, P. Havinga
Traditional modeling approaches, based on predefined business logic, offer little support for today’s complex environments. In this paper, we propose a conceptual agent-based simulation framework to help not only discover complex business processes but also to analyze and learn from emergent behavior arising in cyber-physical systems. Techniques originating from agent-based modeling as well as from the process mining discipline are used to reinforce agent-based decision-making. Whereas agent-technology is used to orchestrate the integration and relationship between the environment and business logic activities, process mining capabilities are mainly used to discover and analyze emergent behavior. Using a functional decomposition approach, we specified three agent types: cyber-physical controller agent, business rule management agent, and emergent behavior detection agent. We use agent-based simulation of a logistics cold chain case study to demonstrate the feasibility of our approach.
基于预定义业务逻辑的传统建模方法对当今的复杂环境提供的支持很少。在本文中,我们提出了一个概念性的基于代理的仿真框架,不仅可以帮助发现复杂的业务流程,还可以帮助分析和学习网络物理系统中出现的紧急行为。源自基于智能体的建模以及过程挖掘学科的技术被用于加强基于智能体的决策。代理技术用于编排环境和业务逻辑活动之间的集成和关系,而流程挖掘功能主要用于发现和分析紧急行为。使用功能分解方法,我们指定了三种代理类型:网络物理控制器代理、业务规则管理代理和紧急行为检测代理。我们使用基于代理的物流冷链模拟案例研究来证明我们方法的可行性。
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引用次数: 6
Reusing Simulation Outputs of Repeated Experiments Via Likelihood Ratio Regression 基于似然比回归的重复实验模拟结果重用
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383879
B. Feng, Guangxin Jiang
Simulation experiments are sometimes conducted periodically, with updated parameters of the stochastic system being modeled. Storing and reusing the past simulation experiment data may be helpful for the current simulation experiment. In this paper, we consider reusing simulation data in repeated experiments to develop high-quality metamodels. Specifically, we propose a generalized least square regression metamodel whose input data include simulation outputs from the current and the past experiments. Moreover, the past simulation outputs are reused via the likelihood ratio method. Asymptotic variance analysis is provided to show the benefits of reusing past simulation data in prediction accuracy, and the numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
有时定期进行模拟实验,并对随机系统的参数进行更新建模。对过去的仿真实验数据进行存储和重用,可能有助于当前的仿真实验。在本文中,我们考虑在重复实验中重用仿真数据来开发高质量的元模型。具体来说,我们提出了一个广义最小二乘回归元模型,其输入数据包括当前和过去实验的模拟输出。此外,通过似然比方法重用了过去的模拟输出。通过渐近方差分析,说明了重复利用以往模拟数据对预测精度的好处,数值结果表明了所提方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A Discrete-Event Heuristic for Makespan Optimization in Multi-Server Flow-Shop Problems with Machine re-entering 多服务器重入流车间问题最大完工时间优化的离散事件启发式算法
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383895
A. Juan, P. Copado, Javier Panadero, C. Laroque, R. D. L. Torre
Modern Manufacturing, known as Industrial Internet or Industry 4.0, is more than ever determined by customer-specific products, that are to be manufactured and delivered in given lead times and due-dates. Many of these manufacturing systems can be modeled as flow-shops where some of the processes can handle jobs on parallel machines. In addition, complex manufacturing environments contain specific machine loops or re-entry cycles where jobs might re-enter specific processes at some point of the flow-shop chain. A specific server is assigned to a job the first time it visits a machine, and it is quite usual that this job has to be processed by exactly the same server if it re-visits the machine due to quality issues. With the goal of minimizing the makespan, this paper analyzes this complex flow-shop setting and proposes an original discrete-event heuristic for solving it in short computing times. Our algorithm combines biased (non-uniform) randomization strategies with the use of a discrete-event list, which iteratively processes as the simulation clock advances. A series of computational experiments contribute to illustrate the performance of our methodology.
现代制造业,被称为工业互联网或工业4.0,比以往任何时候都更多地取决于客户特定的产品,这些产品将在给定的交货时间和截止日期内制造和交付。许多这样的制造系统可以建模为流车间,其中一些流程可以处理并行机器上的作业。此外,复杂的制造环境包含特定的机器循环或重新进入周期,其中工作可能在流车间链的某个点重新进入特定的过程。一个特定的服务器在它第一次访问一台机器时被分配给一个作业,如果由于质量问题重新访问该机器,这个作业通常必须由完全相同的服务器处理。本文以最小化最大完工时间为目标,分析了这种复杂的流水车间设置,提出了一种新颖的离散事件启发式算法,在较短的计算时间内求解该问题。我们的算法结合了有偏差(非均匀)随机化策略和使用离散事件列表,随着模拟时钟的推进迭代处理。一系列的计算实验有助于说明我们的方法的性能。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation in Hybrid Digital Twins for Factory Layout Planning 工厂布局规划的混合数字孪生仿真
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384075
Daniel Nåfors, B. Johansson, P. Gullander, Sven Erixon
As manufacturing companies make changes to their production system, changes to the factory layout usually follow. The layout of a factory considers the positioning of all elements in the production system, and can contribute to the overall efficiency of operations and the work environment. The process of planning factory layouts affects both installation of the changes and operation of the production system, so the effects can be utilized for a long period of time. By combining 3D laser scanning, Virtual Reality, CAD models, and simulation modelling in a hybrid digital twin, this planning process can be noticeably improved yielding benefits in all phases. This is exemplified via a novel longitudinal industrial study using participant observation to gather data. Findings from the study show that the factory layout planning process can be innovated by smart use of modern digital technologies, resulting in better solution and more informed decisions with reduced risk.
随着制造公司对其生产系统进行改变,工厂布局通常也会随之改变。工厂的布局考虑了生产系统中所有要素的定位,并有助于提高运营的整体效率和工作环境。规划工厂布局的过程既影响到生产系统的安装变化,也影响到生产系统的运行,因此这种影响可以长期利用。通过将3D激光扫描、虚拟现实、CAD模型和混合数字孪生中的仿真建模相结合,该规划过程可以在所有阶段显著提高收益。这是通过一个新的纵向工业研究使用参与性观察来收集数据的例子。研究结果表明,工厂布局规划过程可以通过智能使用现代数字技术进行创新,从而在降低风险的情况下提供更好的解决方案和更明智的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Reinforcement Learning in Anylogic Simulation Models: A Guiding Example Using Pathmind 任意逻辑仿真模型中的强化学习:使用路径思维的指导示例
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383916
Mohammed Farhan, Brett Göhre, Edward Junprung
Reinforcement Learning has recently gained a lot of exposure in the simulation industry. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of reinforcement learning in AnyLogic software models using Pathmind. A coffee shop simulation is built to train a barista to make correct operational decisions and improve efficiency that directly affects customer service time. The trained policy outperforms rule-based functions in terms of customer service time and throughput.
最近,强化学习在仿真行业中得到了很多关注。在本文中,我们演示了使用Pathmind在AnyLogic软件模型中使用强化学习。建立了一个咖啡馆模拟,以培训咖啡师做出正确的运营决策,提高直接影响客户服务时间的效率。经过训练的策略在客户服务时间和吞吐量方面优于基于规则的功能。
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引用次数: 7
Discrete-Event Simulation with Consideration for Patient Preference When Scheduling Specialty Telehealth Appointments 在安排专科远程医疗预约时考虑患者偏好的离散事件模拟
Pub Date : 2020-12-14 DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383970
Adam VanDeusen, Nicholas Zacharek, Emmett Springer, Advaidh Venkat, A. Cohn, Megan Adams, Jacob E. Kurlander, S. Saini
Healthcare providers have begun providing care to patients via remote appointments using web-based, synchronous video visits. As this appointment modality becomes increasingly prevalent, decision-makers must consider how to incorporate patient preference for an in-person versus virtual care modality when scheduling future visits. We present a discrete-event simulation that models several potential policies that these decision-makers could use to schedule patients, and demonstrate this simulation in the clinical context of patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease. This simulation provides key metrics for decision-makers, including provider utilization, patient lead time, and proportion of appointments that satisfy patients’ preferences for appointment modality.
医疗保健提供者已经开始使用基于web的同步视频访问,通过远程预约为患者提供护理。随着这种预约模式变得越来越普遍,决策者必须考虑如何在安排未来访问时结合患者对面对面与虚拟护理模式的偏好。我们提出了一个离散事件模拟,模拟了这些决策者可以用来安排患者的几个潜在政策,并在胃食管反流病患者的临床背景下证明了这一模拟。该模拟为决策者提供了关键指标,包括提供者利用率、患者前置时间和满足患者对预约模式偏好的预约比例。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)
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