Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383872
P. Lendermann, S. Dauzére-Pérés, L. McGinnis, L. Mönch, Tina O'Donnell, Georg Seidel, P. Vialletelle
This panel will discuss the inherent conflict between the application of (Discrete-Event) Simulation and Scheduling techniques to manage and optimise capacity and material flow in Semiconductor Frontend Manufacturing (wafer fabrication). Representatives from both industry and academia will describe advantages and shortcomings of the respective techniques, with a specific focus on challenges arising from the recent and anticipated future evolution of the nature of such manufacturing environments, and suggest solution approaches as well as research issues that need to be addressed.
{"title":"Scheduling and Simulation in wafer fabs: Competitors, Independent Players or Amplifiers?","authors":"P. Lendermann, S. Dauzére-Pérés, L. McGinnis, L. Mönch, Tina O'Donnell, Georg Seidel, P. Vialletelle","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383872","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383872","url":null,"abstract":"This panel will discuss the inherent conflict between the application of (Discrete-Event) Simulation and Scheduling techniques to manage and optimise capacity and material flow in Semiconductor Frontend Manufacturing (wafer fabrication). Representatives from both industry and academia will describe advantages and shortcomings of the respective techniques, with a specific focus on challenges arising from the recent and anticipated future evolution of the nature of such manufacturing environments, and suggest solution approaches as well as research issues that need to be addressed.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"80 1","pages":"1861-1874"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83826006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383960
P. Brown, Courtney Kawazoe, A. Nguyen
Given the rapid technological advances realized in the defense industry, asymmetric threats present new challenges to the US Navy. Directed Energy (DE), a rapid prototyping, experimentation, and demonstration (RPED) initiative seeks to develop and deliver advanced laser capabilities to the fleet to mitigate the newly discovered capability gaps. DE programs will utilize a wholeness approach to minimize excess spending, keep a tight schedule, and meet high readiness requirements all at best value with analysis conducted in the early stages of its life. Monitoring readiness of the DE programs includes tracking metrics such as operational availability and mission effectiveness. Evaluating DE design performance during preliminary design reviews, as well as throughout the acquisition milestones, allows NAVSEA the opportunity to make informed trade decisions in the design and production phases. Capturing design trades early in the system lifecycle will both increase Operational Availability as well as decrease Total Ownership Cost.
{"title":"Modeling and Simulation: Balancing Performance, Schedule, and Cost","authors":"P. Brown, Courtney Kawazoe, A. Nguyen","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383960","url":null,"abstract":"Given the rapid technological advances realized in the defense industry, asymmetric threats present new challenges to the US Navy. Directed Energy (DE), a rapid prototyping, experimentation, and demonstration (RPED) initiative seeks to develop and deliver advanced laser capabilities to the fleet to mitigate the newly discovered capability gaps. DE programs will utilize a wholeness approach to minimize excess spending, keep a tight schedule, and meet high readiness requirements all at best value with analysis conducted in the early stages of its life. Monitoring readiness of the DE programs includes tracking metrics such as operational availability and mission effectiveness. Evaluating DE design performance during preliminary design reviews, as well as throughout the acquisition milestones, allows NAVSEA the opportunity to make informed trade decisions in the design and production phases. Capturing design trades early in the system lifecycle will both increase Operational Availability as well as decrease Total Ownership Cost.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"58 1","pages":"2042-2048"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81577817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384055
Sarah Zeiml, Ulrich Seiler, K. Altendorfer, Thomas Felberbauer
A supplier-customer relationship is studied in this paper, where the customer provides demand forecasts that are updated on a rolling horizon basis. The forecasts show systematic and unsystematic errors related to periods before delivery. The paper presents a decision model to decide whether a recently presented forecast correction model should be applied or not. The introduced dynamic correction model is evaluated for different market scenarios, i.e., seasonal demand with periods with significantly higher or lower demand, and changing planning behaviors, where the systematic bias changes over time. The study shows that the application of the developed dynamic forecast correction model leads to significant forecast quality improvement. However, if no systematic forecast bias occurs, the correction reduces forecast accuracy.
{"title":"Simulation Evaluation of Automated Forecast Error Correction Based on Mean Percentage Error","authors":"Sarah Zeiml, Ulrich Seiler, K. Altendorfer, Thomas Felberbauer","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384055","url":null,"abstract":"A supplier-customer relationship is studied in this paper, where the customer provides demand forecasts that are updated on a rolling horizon basis. The forecasts show systematic and unsystematic errors related to periods before delivery. The paper presents a decision model to decide whether a recently presented forecast correction model should be applied or not. The introduced dynamic correction model is evaluated for different market scenarios, i.e., seasonal demand with periods with significantly higher or lower demand, and changing planning behaviors, where the systematic bias changes over time. The study shows that the application of the developed dynamic forecast correction model leads to significant forecast quality improvement. However, if no systematic forecast bias occurs, the correction reduces forecast accuracy.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"33 1","pages":"1572-1583"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82727706","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383859
J. M. Andrews, Christina F. Rusnock, Michael E. Miller, Douglas P. Meador
Due to the advent of autonomous technology coupled with the expense of manned aircraft, the Department of Defense (DoD) is developing affordable, expendable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to be operated in conjunction with jet fighters. With a single pilot commanding the UAVs while piloting their aircraft, operators may find it challenging to manage all systems should the system design not be conducive to a steady state level of workload. To understand the potential effects of manned-unmanned teaming on the pilot’s cognitive workload, an Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT) workload model was developed. The model predicts pilot workload in a simulated environment when interacting with the cockpit and multiple UAVs to provide insight into the effect of Human-Agent Interactions on workload and mission performance. This research concluded that peaks in workload occur for the pilot during periods of high communications load and this communication may be degraded or delayed during air-to-air engagements.
{"title":"Reshaping Airpower: Development of an Imprint Model to Analyze the Effects of Manned-Unmanned Teaming On Operator Mental Workload","authors":"J. M. Andrews, Christina F. Rusnock, Michael E. Miller, Douglas P. Meador","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383859","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the advent of autonomous technology coupled with the expense of manned aircraft, the Department of Defense (DoD) is developing affordable, expendable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to be operated in conjunction with jet fighters. With a single pilot commanding the UAVs while piloting their aircraft, operators may find it challenging to manage all systems should the system design not be conducive to a steady state level of workload. To understand the potential effects of manned-unmanned teaming on the pilot’s cognitive workload, an Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT) workload model was developed. The model predicts pilot workload in a simulated environment when interacting with the cockpit and multiple UAVs to provide insight into the effect of Human-Agent Interactions on workload and mission performance. This research concluded that peaks in workload occur for the pilot during periods of high communications load and this communication may be degraded or delayed during air-to-air engagements.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"1 1","pages":"170-181"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90796506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383874
Tae-Sub Yun, Il-Chul Moon, Young-Chul Kim, Ki‐Sung Jin
An urban simulation is a useful tool for urban administration and policy experiments. Our research goal is composing an agent-based simulation that models the behavioral and movement patterns of the urban population with a real-world city, Sejong in South Korea. Particularly, we modeled the urban dynamics of the city with the size of the real population and with the real-world GIS data. We followed the statistical survey of the behavioral pattern of the population in accordance with a time-use survey data. Lastly, we constructed the public transportation based on bus lines and schedules. Our result shows the initial qualitative validation result of the urban population behavior, specifically on the utilization of the public transportation.
{"title":"Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation on Residential Population Movement Patterns: The Case of Sejong City","authors":"Tae-Sub Yun, Il-Chul Moon, Young-Chul Kim, Ki‐Sung Jin","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383874","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383874","url":null,"abstract":"An urban simulation is a useful tool for urban administration and policy experiments. Our research goal is composing an agent-based simulation that models the behavioral and movement patterns of the urban population with a real-world city, Sejong in South Korea. Particularly, we modeled the urban dynamics of the city with the size of the real population and with the real-world GIS data. We followed the statistical survey of the behavioral pattern of the population in accordance with a time-use survey data. Lastly, we constructed the public transportation based on bus lines and schedules. Our result shows the initial qualitative validation result of the urban population behavior, specifically on the utilization of the public transportation.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"78 1","pages":"620-631"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90851653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383974
Gregoire Ky, S. Alam, V. Duong
The current growth in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles has brought to attention the need to develop a corresponding new infrastructure. One of those is the Carousel Inspired Virtual Circulation method, which consists on having Unmanned Aerial Vehicles represented as virtual blocks circulating alongside a virtual closed circuit. The purpose of this paper is to model and simulate this method in a landing configuration for large Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and evaluate its efficacy. Compared to previous works, this simulation will take into account more restrictive parameters and consider a randomized disruption, as well as an emergency landing situation. The results obtained after three runs of the simulation showed that, for each simulation, at least one virtual block landed after running out of battery. Thus, the limits of the method have been identified and further optimization of the landing sequence will be required for future works.
{"title":"Carousel Inspired Virtual Circulation: A Simulation Model for Uav Arrival and Landing Procedure under Random Events","authors":"Gregoire Ky, S. Alam, V. Duong","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383974","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9383974","url":null,"abstract":"The current growth in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles has brought to attention the need to develop a corresponding new infrastructure. One of those is the Carousel Inspired Virtual Circulation method, which consists on having Unmanned Aerial Vehicles represented as virtual blocks circulating alongside a virtual closed circuit. The purpose of this paper is to model and simulate this method in a landing configuration for large Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and evaluate its efficacy. Compared to previous works, this simulation will take into account more restrictive parameters and consider a randomized disruption, as well as an emergency landing situation. The results obtained after three runs of the simulation showed that, for each simulation, at least one virtual block landed after running out of battery. Thus, the limits of the method have been identified and further optimization of the landing sequence will be required for future works.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"7 1","pages":"504-515"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86665092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384082
Abdurrahman Yavuz, Joshua Darville, N. Çelik, Jie Xu, Chun-Hung Chen, Brent T. Langhals, R. D. Engle
A microgrid is an interdependent electrical distribution system containing renewable energy sources, local demand and a coupled connection to the main grid. A very appealing feature of a microgrid is its capability to self-heal from disruptions, which is made even more viable with the emergence of interconnected collaborative microgrids. In this study, we present a dynamic data driven application system framework that integrates a relational database management system (RDBMS) to advance self-healing capabilities among interconnected microgrids. A RDBMS facilitates access to various sensors in the microgrid for fast abnormality detection and for determining the optimal self-healing action to implement. We build an agent-based simulation model (ABM) for three self-healing interconnected microgrids. Using the ABM, we compare self-healing operations of microgrids with and without an RDBMS. Simulation results show that an RDBMS may lead to faster response time and thus advance self-healing capabilities of interconnected microgrids.
{"title":"Advancing Self-Healing Capabilities in Interconnected Microgrids via Dynamic Data Driven Applications System with Relational Database Management","authors":"Abdurrahman Yavuz, Joshua Darville, N. Çelik, Jie Xu, Chun-Hung Chen, Brent T. Langhals, R. D. Engle","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384082","url":null,"abstract":"A microgrid is an interdependent electrical distribution system containing renewable energy sources, local demand and a coupled connection to the main grid. A very appealing feature of a microgrid is its capability to self-heal from disruptions, which is made even more viable with the emergence of interconnected collaborative microgrids. In this study, we present a dynamic data driven application system framework that integrates a relational database management system (RDBMS) to advance self-healing capabilities among interconnected microgrids. A RDBMS facilitates access to various sensors in the microgrid for fast abnormality detection and for determining the optimal self-healing action to implement. We build an agent-based simulation model (ABM) for three self-healing interconnected microgrids. Using the ABM, we compare self-healing operations of microgrids with and without an RDBMS. Simulation results show that an RDBMS may lead to faster response time and thus advance self-healing capabilities of interconnected microgrids.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"42 1","pages":"2030-2041"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80097676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384073
Elyar Pourrahimian, Malak Al Hattab, Rana Ead, R. Labban, Simaan M. AbouRizk
Earthmoving operations are equipment-intensive processes that rely heavily on the proper selection of the equipment fleet and proper scheduling of associated tasks. Early equipment planning decisions have direct implications on schedules, costs, and more importantly, the environmental performance of such operations. While traditional planning of earthmoving works is ad-hoc and based on planners’ experiences, ensuring favorable performance requires advanced analytical techniques that consider multiple variables and competing objectives. Accordingly, this study develops a discrete-event simulation-based decision-support system (DES-DSS) for selecting the optimal equipment fleet, while considering the trade-offs between time, cost, and environmental impacts. The model’s results from a case study reveal how different fleet mixes and sizes can considerably impact associated emissions, durations, and costs. The DES-DSS can aid planners in making informed decisions during early planning stages and be used as a control feedback mechanism to continuously enhance operations in real-time while reducing emissions.
{"title":"A Simulation-Based Decision-Support System for Reducing Duration, Cost, and Environmental Impacts of Earthmoving Operations","authors":"Elyar Pourrahimian, Malak Al Hattab, Rana Ead, R. Labban, Simaan M. AbouRizk","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384073","url":null,"abstract":"Earthmoving operations are equipment-intensive processes that rely heavily on the proper selection of the equipment fleet and proper scheduling of associated tasks. Early equipment planning decisions have direct implications on schedules, costs, and more importantly, the environmental performance of such operations. While traditional planning of earthmoving works is ad-hoc and based on planners’ experiences, ensuring favorable performance requires advanced analytical techniques that consider multiple variables and competing objectives. Accordingly, this study develops a discrete-event simulation-based decision-support system (DES-DSS) for selecting the optimal equipment fleet, while considering the trade-offs between time, cost, and environmental impacts. The model’s results from a case study reveal how different fleet mixes and sizes can considerably impact associated emissions, durations, and costs. The DES-DSS can aid planners in making informed decisions during early planning stages and be used as a control feedback mechanism to continuously enhance operations in real-time while reducing emissions.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"19 1","pages":"668-679"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88195377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384011
Camila Laura Pareja Yale, Márcia Lorena da Silva Frazão, M. A. Mesquita, H. Yoshizaki
Humanitarian logistics involve planning, acting and controlling situations in which vulnerable people are involved. Simulation techniques can successfully represent the dynamics of disasters, characterized by situations of complexity and uncertainties. This work aims to review papers that apply simulation techniques to solve problems that arise in disaster situations. To accomplish this, we analysed 33 papers published from 2010 to 2019, indexed in Scopus or Web of Science databases, that used simulation techniques to solve humanitarian problems. The descriptive analysis conducted found out that there is a small but increasing number of papers over time. Discrete events simulation and system dynamics are the most used techniques. From the content analysis we find that most research focuses on short term decisions and solving problems related to post-disaster response in unforeseen events. However, topics such as evacuation and transportation of victims are still unexplored.
人道主义后勤包括规划、行动和控制涉及弱势群体的局势。模拟技术可以成功地代表灾害的动态，其特点是情况的复杂性和不确定性。这项工作旨在回顾应用模拟技术来解决灾害情况下出现的问题的论文。为了实现这一目标，我们分析了2010年至2019年发表的33篇论文，这些论文被Scopus或Web of Science数据库收录，它们使用模拟技术来解决人道主义问题。进行的描述性分析发现，随着时间的推移，论文数量虽少，但数量在不断增加。离散事件仿真和系统动力学是最常用的技术。从内容分析中我们发现，大多数研究都集中在短期决策和解决与不可预见事件的灾后响应相关的问题。然而，诸如受害者的疏散和运输等问题仍未得到探讨。
{"title":"Simulation Applications in Humanitarian Logistics: A Systematic Literature Review","authors":"Camila Laura Pareja Yale, Márcia Lorena da Silva Frazão, M. A. Mesquita, H. Yoshizaki","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384011","url":null,"abstract":"Humanitarian logistics involve planning, acting and controlling situations in which vulnerable people are involved. Simulation techniques can successfully represent the dynamics of disasters, characterized by situations of complexity and uncertainties. This work aims to review papers that apply simulation techniques to solve problems that arise in disaster situations. To accomplish this, we analysed 33 papers published from 2010 to 2019, indexed in Scopus or Web of Science databases, that used simulation techniques to solve humanitarian problems. The descriptive analysis conducted found out that there is a small but increasing number of papers over time. Discrete events simulation and system dynamics are the most used techniques. From the content analysis we find that most research focuses on short term decisions and solving problems related to post-disaster response in unforeseen events. However, topics such as evacuation and transportation of victims are still unexplored.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"7 1","pages":"2589-2600"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88427524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384069
N. Fatma, Mohd Shoaib, V. Ramamohan, N. Mustafee
A discrete-event simulation (DES) of the network of primary health centers (PHCs) in a region can be used to evaluate the effect of changes in patient flow on operational outcomes across the network, and can also form the base simulation to which simulations of secondary and tertiary care facilities can be added. We present a DES of a network of PHCs using stochastic metamodels developed from more detailed DES models of PHCs (‘parent’ simulations), which were developed separately for comprehensively analyzing individual PHC operations. The stochastic metamodels are DESs in their own right. They are simplified versions of the parent simulation with full-featured representations of only those components relevant to the analysis at hand. We show that the outputs of interest from the metamodels and the parent simulations (including the network simulations) are statistically similar and that our metamodel-based network simulation yields reductions of up to 80% in runtimes.
{"title":"Primary Healthcare Delivery Network Simulation Using Stochastic Metamodels","authors":"N. Fatma, Mohd Shoaib, V. Ramamohan, N. Mustafee","doi":"10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384069","url":null,"abstract":"A discrete-event simulation (DES) of the network of primary health centers (PHCs) in a region can be used to evaluate the effect of changes in patient flow on operational outcomes across the network, and can also form the base simulation to which simulations of secondary and tertiary care facilities can be added. We present a DES of a network of PHCs using stochastic metamodels developed from more detailed DES models of PHCs (‘parent’ simulations), which were developed separately for comprehensively analyzing individual PHC operations. The stochastic metamodels are DESs in their own right. They are simplified versions of the parent simulation with full-featured representations of only those components relevant to the analysis at hand. We show that the outputs of interest from the metamodels and the parent simulations (including the network simulations) are statistically similar and that our metamodel-based network simulation yields reductions of up to 80% in runtimes.","PeriodicalId":6692,"journal":{"name":"2020 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)","volume":"34 15","pages":"818-829"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91437284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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