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The Root Causes of Terrorism, Cost and its Impact on Economic Growth and Capital Formation and Foreign Direct Investment: 1980-2010 恐怖主义的根源、成本及其对经济增长、资本形成和外国直接投资的影响:1980-2010
Pub Date : 2012-12-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2216606
A. Essien
Terrorism is one of the dreaded phenomenons affecting the Nigerian people and her economy. This phenomenon has defiled many solutions. This study examined the popular held view that the "root cause of terrorism" is poverty within the period 1980-2010. That is terrorism is caused by poverty related factors (economic variables - GDP, HDI, INFL, FDI, GI, UNE) and poverty (PI) itself. The study extended the investigation to determine the cost of terrorism as well as if political factors (PR, PP, SG, and REP) and demographical factors (POP, ERD) are also the root cause of terrorism as well the impacts of terrorism on GDP, GI and FDI. The findings from this study indicated that within the reviewed period, our study did not support the "rooted-in-poverty hypothesis", "terrorist-growth hypothesis", "growth-terrorist hypothesis", "terrorist-capital formation hypothesis", nor "rooted-in political demography hypothesis". That is none of these factors even poverty and ERD are the root cause for terrorism. Poverty related factors only make the country to be a breeding and dumping ground for terrorists and not the root cause for their activities. Nevertheless, among the variables used in this study, only POP and SG were found to be significant predictors of terrorism acts. Before arriving at this, we scan our data to ascertain their stationary state by applying the ADF and PP-test. However, we were unable to determine the existence of a long run relationship among our data set using the Johansen Co integration test. As such we ran the regression in their first difference employing the VAR and OLS estimating procedure. To complement our findings we carried out an impulse response function. Our results from it confirmed are findings from the VAR regression. Therefore, we recommended that if the government is determined to win the "fight against terrorism" focus must be on controlling the movement (immigration) of people into the country and ensuring that the principles or tenets of democracy are upheld.
恐怖主义是影响尼日利亚人民及其经济的可怕现象之一。这种现象玷污了许多解决方案。这项研究考察了1980-2010年间流行的观点,即“恐怖主义的根源”是贫困。也就是说,恐怖主义是由与贫困相关的因素(经济变量——GDP、HDI、INFL、FDI、GI、UNE)和贫困(PI)本身造成的。该研究扩展了调查范围,以确定恐怖主义的成本,以及政治因素(PR、PP、SG和REP)和人口因素(POP、ERD)是否也是恐怖主义的根本原因,以及恐怖主义对GDP、GI和FDI的影响。研究结果表明,在回顾期内,我们的研究不支持“根源贫困假说”、“恐怖分子-增长假说”、“增长-恐怖分子假说”、“恐怖分子-资本形成假说”和“根源政治人口假说”。这些因素都不是恐怖主义的根本原因,甚至贫困和ERD也是。与贫困有关的因素只会使这个国家成为恐怖分子的滋生和倾倒地,而不是他们活动的根本原因。然而,在本研究使用的变量中,只有POP和SG被发现是恐怖主义行为的显著预测因子。在达到这一点之前,我们扫描我们的数据,以确定他们的稳态应用ADF和pp检验。然而,我们无法确定我们的数据集之间的长期关系的存在使用约翰森Co整合测试。因此,我们使用VAR和OLS估计程序在他们的第一个差异中运行回归。为了补充我们的发现,我们进行了一个脉冲响应函数。我们的结果证实了VAR回归的结果。因此,我们建议,如果政府决心赢得“打击恐怖主义”的胜利,那么重点必须放在控制人们进入该国的流动(移民)上,并确保民主的原则或信条得到维护。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Production Linkages on Industrial Upgrading in ASEAN, the People's Republic of China, and India: Organizational Evidence of a Global Supply Chain 生产联系对东盟、中华人民共和国和印度产业升级的影响:全球供应链的组织证据
Pub Date : 2012-12-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2185277
T. Machikita, Y. Ueki
This paper presents a simple model of industrial upgrading as a result of backward and forward information linkages between upstream and downstream relations. It also serves as an empirical investigation of the impact of mutual knowledge exchange on the knowledge production function using data on firms' self-reported customers and suppliers. Evidence from interconnected firms in Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Viet Nam suggests that there are strong spillover effects between downstream and upstream firms in terms of international standard certification. The degree of product and process innovation is quite diverse across manufacturing firms within a local supply chain and within a global supply chain.
本文提出了一个简单的产业升级模型,该模型是由上下游关系之间的前向和后向信息联系所导致的。利用企业自我报告的客户和供应商数据,对知识交换对知识生产函数的影响进行了实证研究。来自印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾和越南的互联企业的证据表明,在国际标准认证方面,上下游企业之间存在很强的溢出效应。在本地供应链和全球供应链的制造企业中,产品和工艺创新的程度是相当不同的。
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引用次数: 6
Is Government's Help for Unemployed People Helpful for the Society? An Empirical Study on Macro Data of Public Unemployment Spending in OECD Nations 政府对失业人员的帮助对社会有帮助吗?经合组织国家公共失业支出宏观数据的实证研究
Pub Date : 2012-12-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2185624
H. Ding
Using panel data of public unemployment expenditure as a percentage of GDP of 34 OECD nations across year 1980-2010, I explore the effect of this ratio on three unemployment outcomes: total unemployment rate, long-term unemployment rate and youth unemployment, as well as labor participation rate and investment rate. After taking into account potential endogeneity of this ratio using Durbin-Wu-Hausman test, I find the data does not support the hypothesized aggregate demand effect of unemployment insurance (UI) expenditure in theory but gives strong support for hypothesized disincentive effect in theory. The estimates indicate that every percentage point increase in public unemployment welfare expenditure relative to GDP leads to 0.9 to 1.1 percentage point increase in total unemployment rate and 4.5 to 4.7 percentage point increase in long term unemployment rate. The distortionary effect of UI program on business is also verified by an estimate that every percentage point increase in this unemployment spending rate is associated with about 2.1 percentage point decrease in investment rate.
利用34个经合组织国家1980-2010年间公共失业支出占GDP比例的面板数据,我探讨了这一比例对三种失业结果的影响:总失业率、长期失业率和青年失业率,以及劳动参与率和投资率。利用Durbin-Wu-Hausman检验考虑了该比率的潜在内生性后,我发现数据在理论上不支持失业保险支出的总需求效应假说,但在理论上有力地支持了失业保险支出的抑制效应假说。估计表明,公共失业福利支出相对于GDP每增加一个百分点,导致总失业率增加0.9至1.1个百分点,长期失业率增加4.5至4.7个百分点。失业支出每增加一个百分点,投资率就会下降2.1个百分点,这一估计也证实了失业支出计划对商业的扭曲效应。
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引用次数: 2
Logics of Action and Models of Capitalism: Explaining Bottom-Up Non-Liberal Change 行动逻辑与资本主义模式:解释自下而上的非自由变革
Pub Date : 2012-12-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2185368
Julien Etienne, Gerhard Schnyder
Recent institutionalist scholarship has theorized the liberalization or “disorganization” of capitalism as the result of shifts in economic actors' “logic of action” towards opportunism. Little attention has been given to the reverse possibility that shifts in economic actors' “logic of action” away from opportunism might contribute to “embedding” or “organizing” capitalism. This paper builds on recent scholarship to theorize this scenario and then demonstrate its empirical validity with an historical institutionalist study of the emergence of such a “non-liberal” institution in Switzerland in 1961. The theoretical framework links three “logics of action” – opportunism, enlightened self-interest and strong solidarity – to Hopner's typology of capitalist institutions – organized, coordinated, and liberal. It theorizes the interactions between these logics and the social mechanism – goal signaling – that can explain a shift from one logic of action to another, potentially leading to change from one type of institution to another.
最近的制度主义学者将资本主义的自由化或“解体”理论化,认为这是经济参与者的“行动逻辑”向机会主义转变的结果。很少有人注意到相反的可能性,即经济参与者的“行动逻辑”从机会主义转向可能有助于“嵌入”或“组织”资本主义。本文以最近的学术研究为基础,将这一情景理论化,然后通过对1961年瑞士出现的这种“非自由”制度的历史制度主义研究来证明其经验有效性。理论框架将三种“行动逻辑”——机会主义、开明的自我利益和强大的团结——与霍普纳的资本主义制度类型——有组织的、协调的和自由的联系起来。它将这些逻辑和社会机制——目标信号——之间的相互作用理论化,这可以解释从一种行为逻辑到另一种行为逻辑的转变,并可能导致从一种类型的制度向另一种类型的制度的转变。
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引用次数: 11
Labour Shares and Employment Protection in European Economies 欧洲经济中的劳动份额和就业保护
Pub Date : 2012-12-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2184274
M. Damiani, F. Pompei, A. Ricci
Liberalisation of temporary contracts has become an important component of recent labour reforms but up to now available research has not paid attention to the impacts of these institutional changes on functional income distribution. The present paper intends to fill this gap by focussing on the reduction in strictness of employment protection of temporary jobs and analysing its effects on factor shares. We have estimated labour share, as well as its components, worker pays and employment, by considering country-sector evidence for 14 EU economies and the sample period 1995-2007. We have found that these legislative changes, that have favoured the extensive use of temporary contracts, have contributed to instability of working conditions and caused negative effects on workers’ pays. These impacts have more than counterbalanced the scanty positive effects on employment (due to greater access to the labour market of additional workers, likely young and women), thus leading to a decrease in income share accruing to workers.
临时合同的自由化已成为最近劳动改革的一个重要组成部分,但迄今为止现有的研究尚未注意到这些制度变化对功能性收入分配的影响。本文打算填补这一空白,把重点放在减少对临时工作的就业保护的严格程度上,并分析其对要素份额的影响。我们考虑了14个欧盟经济体和1995-2007年样本期的国家部门证据,估算了劳动收入占比及其组成部分、工人工资和就业。我们发现,这些有利于广泛使用临时合同的立法变化造成了工作条件的不稳定,并对工人的工资造成了负面影响。这些影响远远抵消了对就业的微弱积极影响(由于更多的工人,可能是年轻人和妇女有更多的机会进入劳动力市场),从而导致工人的收入份额减少。
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引用次数: 4
Factor-Augmenting Technology Choice and Monopolistic Competition 要素增强型技术选择与垄断竞争
Pub Date : 2012-12-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2190812
J. Growiec
We put forward a tractable, interpretable, and easily generalizable framework for modeling endogeneous factor-augmenting technology choice by monopolistically competitive firms. The setup is framed within the standard Dixit and Stiglitz (1977) model of monopolistic competition. Optimal technology choice is made here either by final goods producers or the representative household which holds the shares of (differentiated) intermediate goods producers. These two cases have different implications for the distribution of output but they yield the same aggregate level of output, the same aggregate production function and equivalent macroeconomic dynamics. Thanks to this property, the proposed framework can be used as a building block in a variety of embedding structures, including those which require to be solved recursively (separately for the dynamics of aggregate variables and for the distribution in each time period).
我们提出了一个可处理的、可解释的、易于推广的框架来模拟垄断竞争企业内生因素增强技术选择。这种设置是在标准的Dixit和Stiglitz(1977)垄断竞争模型框架内进行的。最优技术选择是由最终产品生产者或持有(差异化)中间产品生产者股份的代表性家庭做出的。这两种情况对产出分配有不同的影响,但它们产生相同的总产出水平、相同的总生产函数和等效的宏观经济动态。由于这一特性,所提出的框架可以用作各种嵌入结构的构建块,包括那些需要递归求解的嵌入结构(分别用于聚合变量的动态和每个时间段的分布)。
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引用次数: 2
On the Main Challenge of the Current Global Financial and Economic Crisis 论当前全球金融和经济危机的主要挑战
Pub Date : 2012-12-02 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2183885
V. Papava
The contemporary financial crisis has transformed into economic crisis or financial-cum-economic crisis. The occurrence of financial crises has encouraged the emergence of a kind of routine which guarantees the stability of a government's bailout programmes implemented through the banking sector in support of de-facto bankrupt firms. As a result, a network of zombie-banks and zombie-firms develops upon which the entire system of a zombie-economy rests. It is of great importance, therefore, the extent to which a government will go to continue supporting insolvent companies and banks in the post crisis period and to what extent it will facilitate simplifying the bankruptcy procedures. © 2010 Bull. Georg. Natl. Acad. Sci.
当代金融危机已经转化为经济危机或金融兼经济危机。金融危机的发生鼓励了一种惯例的出现,这种惯例保证了政府通过银行部门实施的救助计划的稳定性,以支持事实上破产的公司。结果,一个僵尸银行和僵尸公司的网络发展起来,整个僵尸经济体系就建立在这个网络之上。因此,在后危机时期,政府将在多大程度上继续支持破产公司和银行,以及在多大程度上促进简化破产程序,这一点非常重要。©2010牛。Georg。国家的。学会科学。
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引用次数: 0
The Human Factor in the Modern Financial Crisis 现代金融危机中的人为因素
Pub Date : 2012-12-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2183871
V. Papava
Homo transformaticus, therefore, is the carrier of a necroeconomy’s routine who transforms economy. Unlike a necroeconomy, whose routine is carried by a human being which is 'still-to-be-formed,' a zombie-economy’s routine is carried by the 'gone and departed' man, the so-called zombie economicus. Under the conditions of the present financial crisis, the threat of a zombie-economy is also aggressively knocking on the doors of those developed economies which, until recently, seemed to have escaped the zombieing of their economies. The only effective mechanism to get rid of both a necroeconomy and a zombieeconomy is to adopt a sound bankruptcy law.
因此,转化人是转化经济的死亡经济常规的载体。与“僵尸经济”不同的是,“僵尸经济”的日常工作由“尚未成形”的人承担,而“僵尸经济”的日常工作则由“已经离去”的人承担,即所谓的“僵尸经济人”。在当前金融危机的情况下,僵尸经济的威胁也在积极地敲响那些发达经济体的大门,这些经济体直到最近似乎才摆脱了其经济的僵尸化。摆脱僵尸经济和死亡经济的唯一有效机制是采用健全的破产法。
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引用次数: 1
Trade Policy: Home Market Effect Versus Terms-of-Trade Externality 贸易政策:国内市场效应与贸易条件外部性
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2228125
Alessia Campolmi, Harald Fadinger, Chiara Forlati
We study trade policy in a two-sector Krugman (1980) trade model, allowing for wage, import and export subsidies/taxes. We study non-cooperative trade policies, first for each individual instrument and then for the situation where all instruments can be set simultaneously, and contrast those with the efficient allocation. We show that in this general context there are four motives for non-cooperative trade policies: the correction of monopolistic distortions; the terms-of-trade manipulation; the delocation motive for protection (home market effect); the fiscal-burden-shifting motive. The Nash equilibrium when all instruments are available is characterized by first-best-level wage subsidies, and inefficient import subsidies and export taxes, which aim at relocating firms to the other economy and improving terms of trade. Thus, the dominating incentives for non-cooperative trade policies are the fiscal-burden-shifting motives and terms-of-trade effects.
我们在考虑工资、进出口补贴/税收的两部门克鲁格曼(1980)贸易模型中研究贸易政策。我们研究了非合作贸易政策,首先针对每个单独的工具,然后针对所有工具可以同时设置的情况,并将其与有效配置进行对比。我们表明,在这种大背景下,非合作贸易政策有四个动机:纠正垄断扭曲;贸易条件操纵;保护的区位动机(国内市场效应);转移财政负担的动机。当所有工具都可用时,纳什均衡的特点是第一最佳水平的工资补贴和低效的进口补贴和出口税,其目的是将公司转移到其他经济体和改善贸易条件。因此,非合作贸易政策的主要动机是转移财政负担的动机和贸易条件的影响。
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引用次数: 30
Institutional Investors, Political Connections and Incidence of Corporate Fraud 机构投资者、政治关系与公司欺诈发生率
Pub Date : 2012-11-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2181958
Wenfeng Wu, S. Johan, Oliver M. Rui
In this study, we analyze two new potential determinants for mitigating fraud committed by firms: institutional investors and political connection. The role of institutional investors in the effective monitoring of firm management has also been well established and we in turn observe that firms with a large proportion of institutional investors have lower incidences of corporate fraud. The importance of political connection for enterprise in both developed and emerging markets such as the United States and China has also been established by prior studies. We find in this paper that it is possible to identify another positive effect on enterprise in that political connection could reduce incidences of corporate fraud, thus providing value to firms. We further find that political connection plays more pronounced role in reducing the incidence of regulatory enforcement against non-state owned enterprises in weaker legal environments, while institutional ownership plays a more important role in reducing the incidence of regulatory enforcement against state owned enterprises in weaker legal environments.
在这项研究中,我们分析了两个新的潜在的决定因素,以减轻企业欺诈:机构投资者和政治关系。机构投资者在有效监督公司管理方面的作用也得到了很好的确立,我们反过来观察到,拥有大量机构投资者的公司的公司欺诈发生率较低。无论是在发达市场还是在美国和中国等新兴市场,政治关系对企业的重要性也已经得到了前人的研究。我们在本文中发现,有可能确定政治关系对企业的另一个积极影响,即政治关系可以减少企业欺诈的发生率,从而为企业提供价值。我们进一步发现,在法律环境较弱的情况下,政治关系在降低针对非国有企业的监管执行发生率方面发挥更显著的作用,而在法律环境较弱的情况下,机构所有权在降低针对国有企业的监管执行发生率方面发挥更重要的作用。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
政治经济学季刊
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