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Examining the Role of Social Determinants of Health and COVID-19 Risk in 28 African Countries 在 28 个非洲国家研究健康的社会决定因素和 COVID-19 风险的作用
Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010009
Imelda K. Moise, Lola R. Ortiz-Whittingham, Kazeem Owolabi, H. Halwindi, Bernard A. Miti
While the impact of the pandemic has varied between and within countries, there are few published data on the relationship between social determinants of health (SDoH) and COVID-19 in Africa. This ecological cross-sectional study examines the relationship between COVID-19 risk and SDoH among 28 African countries. Included were countries with a recent demographic and health survey (years 2010 to 2018). The response variables were COVID-19 case rates and death rates (reported as of 15 August 2020); and the covariates comprised eight broad topics common to multiple SDoH frameworks aggregated to the country level: geography (urban residence), wealth index, education, employment, crowding, and access to information. A negative binomial regression was used to assess the association between aspects of SDoH and COVID-19 outcomes. Our analysis indicated that 1 in 4 (25.1%) households in study countries are without safe and clean water and a space for handwashing. The odds of COVID-19 morbidity and deaths were higher in countries with a high proportion of households without access to safe and clean water. Having a high proportional of educated women (1.003: 95% CI, 1.001–1.005) and living in a less crowded home (0.959: 95% CI, 0.920–1.000) were negatively associated with COVID-19 deaths, while being insured and owning a mobile phone predicted illness. Overall, aspects of SDoH contribute either negatively or positively to COVID-19 outcomes. Thus, addressing economic and environmental SDoH is critical for mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and re-emerging diseases on the African continent.
尽管该流行病在各国之间和各国内部的影响各不相同,但有关非洲健康的社会决定因素 (SDoH) 与 COVID-19 之间关系的公开数据却很少。本生态横断面研究探讨了 28 个非洲国家的 COVID-19 风险与 SDoH 之间的关系。研究对象包括最近进行过人口与健康调查(2010 年至 2018 年)的国家。响应变量为 COVID-19 病例率和死亡率(截至 2020 年 8 月 15 日的报告);协变量包括汇总到国家层面的多个 SDoH 框架中常见的八大主题:地理(城市居民)、财富指数、教育、就业、拥挤程度和信息获取。我们采用负二项回归法来评估 SDoH 的各个方面与 COVID-19 结果之间的关联。我们的分析表明,在研究国家中,每 4 户家庭中就有 1 户(25.1%)没有安全清洁的饮用水和洗手空间。在无法获得安全清洁饮用水的家庭比例较高的国家,COVID-19 的发病率和死亡率较高。受过教育的女性比例高(1.003:95% CI,1.001-1.005)和居住在不太拥挤的家庭(0.959:95% CI,0.920-1.000)与 COVID-19 死亡呈负相关,而投保和拥有手机则预示着疾病的发生。总体而言,SDoH的各个方面对COVID-19的结果有消极或积极的影响。因此,解决经济和环境的可持续发展与健康问题对于减少 COVID-19 和非洲大陆再次出现的疾病的传播至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 in New Zealand: The Moderating Effect of Involvement on the Roles of Attitudes and Subjective Norms 新西兰的 COVID-19:参与对态度和主观规范的调节作用
Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010007
Geoff Kaine, Vic Wright
Popular theories that explain or predict behavioural intentions are based on people’s attitudes and subjective norms. Their application is based on the (often implicit) assumption that people regard a subject (e.g., preventing the spread of COVID-19) as sufficiently important for them to formulate stable attitudes and subjective norms about it. As this assumption rarely holds for all people, the influence of attitudes and subjective norms in determining behavioural intentions changes depending on the importance of the subject. In other words, importance has a moderating effect on the relationship between intentions, attitudes, and subjective norms. We hypothesise that, as importance declines, the influence on intentions of attitudes decreases and the influence of subjective norms increases. This has important implications for efforts to encourage the adoption of preventative behaviours in relation to COVID-19 because promotional strategies designed to modify attitudes differ markedly from those designed to modify subjective norms. We test this hypothesis by analysing three different large-scale surveys about people’s intentions, involvement, attitudes, and subjective norms regarding the spread of COVID-19 in New Zealand. The results support our hypothesis and highlight the importance of distinguishing between when the formation of behavioural intentions depends mainly on attitudes and when it depends mainly on subjective norms.
解释或预测行为意向的流行理论以人们的态度和主观规范为基础。这些理论的应用基于这样一个假设(通常是隐含的),即人们认为某个主题(例如,防止 COVID-19 的传播)足够重要,以至于他们会对此形成稳定的态度和主观规范。由于这一假设很少对所有人都成立,因此态度和主观规范在决定行为意向方面的影响会因主题的重要性而改变。换句话说,重要性对意向、态度和主观规范之间的关系具有调节作用。我们假设,随着重要性的降低,态度对意向的影响会减小,而主观规范的影响会增大。这对于鼓励人们采取与 COVID-19 相关的预防行为具有重要意义,因为旨在改变态度的宣传策略与旨在改变主观规范的宣传策略有明显不同。我们通过分析三项不同的大规模调查来验证这一假设,这些调查涉及人们对 COVID-19 在新西兰传播的意图、参与、态度和主观规范。结果支持了我们的假设,并强调了区分行为意图的形成主要取决于态度和主要取决于主观规范的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Two Years of COVID: The Journey to Discover a New Disease COVID 两年:发现新疾病之旅
Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010008
Giuseppe Novelli
Two years ago, MDPI launched an "Instant Journal" entitled COVID with the intention of raising awareness of research into a new disease originating from the SARS-CoV-2 infection that has affected more than 700 million individuals, with over 6 million deaths in total worldwide [...]
两年前,MDPI 推出了一份名为 COVID 的 "即时期刊",旨在提高人们对源于 SARS-CoV-2 感染的新疾病研究的认识。
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引用次数: 0
Patterns of Mentally Active versus Passive Sedentary Behavior in Adults: Post-COVID-19 Insights 成人精神活跃与被动久坐行为的模式:后 COVID-19 洞察
Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010006
Daliya S. Alobaid, A. Alansare
Background: Although sedentary behavior (SB) before and during COVID-19 has been studied, mental activity-based SB patterns have been overlooked. This secondary analysis investigated the patterns of mentally active vs. passive SB in adults post-COVID-19 pandemic and examined sex differences. Methods: Adults (n = 1255; 45% males; 50% aged between 20 and 29 years old) self-reported general characteristics, anthropometric and socioeconomic variables, and mentally active and passive SB (weekdays and weekend days) using a structured web-based survey. Adjusted ANCOVA on Ranks tests assessed differences between mentally active and mentally passive SB during the day, on weekdays, and weekend days. Adjusted Quade Nonparametric ANCOVA tests evaluated these differences in males vs. females. Results: Adults significantly spent greater time in mentally active vs. passive SB (5.61 ± 4.57 vs. 2.50 ± 3.25; p < 0.001). Mentally active SB was more prevalent on weekdays than on weekends (6.00 ± 5.00 vs. 5.00 ± 5.00; p < 0.001). No significant difference was observed for mentally passive SB (p > 0.05). Males significantly accumulated more mentally active SB compared to females (p < 0.001 for all). Females significantly spent more time in mentally passive SB on weekdays than males (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Our results highlight the need for individualized SB reduction strategies based on mental activity to obtain the most benefits of SB reduction interventions and promoting overall health post-COVID-19 pandemic.
背景:尽管对 COVID-19 流行前和流行期间的久坐行为(SB)进行了研究,但基于精神活动的久坐行为模式却被忽视了。这项二次分析调查了 COVID-19 大流行后成年人精神活动与被动久坐的模式,并研究了性别差异。研究方法成人(n = 1255;45% 为男性;50% 年龄在 20-29 岁之间)通过结构化网络调查自我报告了一般特征、人体测量和社会经济变量以及精神上主动和被动的 SB(工作日和周末)。等级检验的调整方差分析评估了白天、工作日和周末精神活跃和精神被动SB之间的差异。调整后的奎德非参数方差分析测试评估了男性与女性之间的差异。结果显示成人花费在精神活跃型 SB 上的时间明显多于被动型 SB(5.61 ± 4.57 vs. 2.50 ± 3.25;p < 0.001)。精神活跃的 SB 在工作日比周末更普遍(6.00 ± 5.00 vs. 5.00 ± 5.00;p < 0.001)。精神被动型 SB 没有明显差异(P > 0.05)。与女性相比,男性积累的精神活跃性 SB 明显较多(p < 0.001)。女性平日花在精神被动 SB 上的时间明显多于男性(p < 0.05)。结论我们的研究结果突出表明,需要根据心理活动采取个性化的减少 SB 策略,以获得减少 SB 干预措施的最大益处,并促进 COVID-19 大流行后的整体健康。
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引用次数: 0
Public Decision Policy for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks Using Control System Engineering 利用控制系统工程控制 COVID-19 爆发的公共决策政策
Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010005
H. Patiño, J. Pucheta, Cristian Rodríguez Rivero, Santiago Tosetti
This work is a response to the appeal of various international health organizations and the Automatic Control Community for collaboration in addressing Coronavirus/COVID-19 challenges during the initial stages of the pandemic. Specifically, this study presents scientific evidence supporting the efficacy of three primary non-pharmacological strategies for pandemic mitigation. We propose a control system to aid in formulating a public decision policy aimed at managing the spread of COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, commonly known as coronavirus. The primary objective is to prevent overwhelming healthcare systems by averting the saturation of intensive care units (ICUs). In the context of COVID-19, understanding the peak infection rate and its time delay is crucial for preparing healthcare infrastructure and ensuring an adequate supply of intensive care units equipped with automatic ventilators. While it is widely recognized that public policies encompassing confinement and social distancing can flatten the epidemiological curve and provide time to bolster healthcare resources, there is a dearth of studies examining this pivotal issue from the perspective of control system theory. In this study, we introduce a control system founded on three prevailing non-pharmacological tools for epidemic and pandemic mitigation: social distancing, confinement, and population-wide testing and isolation in regions experiencing community transmission. Our analysis and control system design rely on the susceptible-exposed–infected–recovered–deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model, which describes the temporal dynamics of a pandemic, tailored in this research to account for the temporal and spatial characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 behavior. This model incorporates the influence of conducting tests with subsequent population isolation. An On–off control strategy is analyzed, and a proportional–integral–derivative (PID) controller is proposed to generate a sequence of public policy decisions. The proposed control system employs the required number of critical beds and ICUs as feedback signals and compares these with the available bed capacity to generate an error signal, which is utilized as input for the PID controller. The control actions outlined involve five phases of “Social Distancing and Confinement” (SD&C) to be implemented by governmental authorities. Consequently, the control system generates a policy sequence for SD&C, with applications occurring on a weekly or biweekly basis. The simulation results underscore the favorable impact of these three mitigation strategies against the coronavirus, illustrating their efficacy in controlling the outbreak and thereby mitigating the risk of healthcare system collapse.
这项工作是对各国际卫生组织和自动控制界呼吁合作应对大流行初期冠状病毒/COVID-19 挑战的回应。具体来说,本研究提出了科学证据,支持缓解大流行的三种主要非药物策略的有效性。我们提出了一个控制系统,以帮助制定公共决策政策,管理由 SARS-CoV-2 病毒(俗称冠状病毒)引起的 COVID-19 的传播。其主要目的是通过避免重症监护室(ICU)的饱和来防止医疗系统不堪重负。在 COVID-19 的背景下,了解高峰感染率及其时间延迟对于准备医疗基础设施和确保配备自动呼吸机的重症监护室的充足供应至关重要。虽然人们普遍认为,包括隔离和社会疏远在内的公共政策可以拉平流行病学曲线,并为加强医疗资源提供时间,但从控制系统理论的角度来研究这一关键问题的研究还很缺乏。在本研究中,我们介绍了一种控制系统,该系统建立在三种流行病和大流行病缓解的常用非药物工具之上:社会隔离、封闭以及在出现社区传播的地区进行全人群检测和隔离。我们的分析和控制系统设计依赖于易感者-暴露者-感染者-康复者-死亡者(SEIRD)数学模型,该模型描述了大流行的时间动态,本研究根据 SARS-CoV-2 行为的时间和空间特征进行了调整。该模型纳入了进行试验和随后的人群隔离的影响。对开关控制策略进行了分析,并提出了一个比例-积分-派生(PID)控制器来生成一系列公共政策决策。建议的控制系统采用所需的危重病床和重症监护室数量作为反馈信号,并将其与可用病床容量进行比较,以产生误差信号,该误差信号被用作 PID 控制器的输入信号。概述的控制行动涉及政府当局实施的五个 "社会隔离和封闭"(SD&C)阶段。因此,控制系统会生成一个 SD&C 政策序列,每周或每两周应用一次。模拟结果强调了这三种缓解策略对冠状病毒的有利影响,说明了它们在控制疫情爆发方面的功效,从而降低了医疗系统崩溃的风险。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Surgical Delay: A Single Institutional Experience at the Epicenter of the COVID Pandemic Treatment Delays in Women with Endometrial Cancer and Endometrial Intraepithelial Hyperplasia 手术延迟的影响:子宫内膜癌和子宫内膜上皮内瘤增生妇女治疗延迟的单一机构经验
Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010004
Kieran Seay, Arielle H. Katcher, Maia Hare, Nina Kohn, Hannah Juhel, Gary Goldberg, M. Frimer
The spread of COVID-19 led to a lockdown in New York in March of 2020. Nonemergent surgeries were postponed, including oncologic procedures. The backlog of surgeries was addressed starting May 2020. Our goal was to examine the change in waiting times for endometrial cancer surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic in our institution. Data on surgery incidence and waiting time was gathered for patients diagnosed with endometrial intraepithelial neoplasia and endometrial cancer. The association between days from diagnosis to surgery was adjusted for age, obesity, presence of comorbid conditions, race, smoking history and diagnosis and was examined using a general linear model. A total of 190 patients were identified for this retrospective study. Five subjects were missing information on race and were excluded from all analyses, resulting in 185 subjects in the final analyses. Mean waiting time during COVID-19 was 70.9 days (95%CI 55.0, 91.3), compared to 49.3 (95%CI 49.8, 63.8) days during the reference period. No significant associations were seen between the time and any of the clinical or demographic factors.
COVID-19 的扩散导致纽约在 2020 年 3 月实行封锁。非紧急手术被推迟,包括肿瘤手术。积压的手术从 2020 年 5 月开始得到解决。我们的目标是研究本机构在 COVID-19 大流行期间子宫内膜癌手术等待时间的变化。我们收集了确诊为子宫内膜上皮内瘤变和子宫内膜癌患者的手术发生率和等待时间数据。从诊断到手术的天数与年龄、肥胖程度、是否有合并症、种族、吸烟史和诊断之间的关系已作调整,并使用一般线性模型进行了检验。这项回顾性研究共确定了 190 名患者。有五名受试者的种族信息缺失,因此被排除在所有分析之外,最终分析结果为 185 名受试者。COVID-19 期间的平均等待时间为 70.9 天(95%CI 55.0,91.3),而参照期为 49.3 天(95%CI 49.8,63.8)。等待时间与任何临床或人口统计学因素之间均无明显关联。
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引用次数: 0
Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 Sequence Variants at Universities in Southwest Idaho 爱达荷州西南部大学对 SARS-CoV-2 序列变异的基因组监测
Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010003
Jennifer R. Chase, Laura Bond, Daniel J. Vail, Milan Sengthep, Adriana Rodriguez, Joe Christianson, Stephanie F. Hudon, Julia Thom Oxford
Although the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on major metropolitan areas is broadly reported and readily available, regions with lower populations and more remote areas in the United States are understudied. The objective of this study is to determine the progression of SARS-CoV-2 sequence variants in a frontier and remote intermountain west state among university-associated communities. This study was conducted at two intermountain west universities from 2020 to 2022. Positive SARS-CoV-2 samples were confirmed by quantitative real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and variants were identified by the next-generation sequencing of viral genomes. Positive results were obtained for 5355 samples, representing a positivity rate of 3.5% overall. The median age was 22 years. Viral genomic sequence data were analyzed for 1717 samples and phylogeny was presented. Associations between viral variants, age, sex, and reported symptoms among 1522 samples indicated a significant association between age and the Delta variant (B 1.167.2), consistent with the findings for other regions. An outbreak event of AY122 was detected August–October 2021. A 2-month delay was observed with respect to the timing of the first documented viral infection within this region compared to major metropolitan regions of the US.
尽管 SARS-CoV-2 大流行对大都市地区的影响已被广泛报道并可随时查阅,但对美国人口较少的地区和较偏远地区的研究却不足。本研究的目的是确定 SARS-CoV-2 序列变异在西部边远山区州大学相关社区中的进展情况。这项研究从 2020 年到 2022 年在两所山间西部大学进行。通过定量实时反转录聚合酶链反应确认了 SARS-CoV-2 阳性样本,并通过下一代病毒基因组测序确定了变体。5355份样本检测结果呈阳性,阳性率为3.5%。中位年龄为 22 岁。对 1717 个样本的病毒基因组序列数据进行了分析,并提出了系统发生学。1522 份样本中病毒变异体、年龄、性别和报告症状之间的关联表明,年龄与 Delta 变异体(B 1.167.2)之间存在显著关联,这与其他地区的研究结果一致。2021 年 8 月至 10 月检测到 AY122 爆发。与美国主要大都市地区相比,该地区首次记录到病毒感染的时间推迟了 2 个月。
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引用次数: 0
Association between Priority Conditions and Access to Care, Treatment of an Ongoing Condition, and Ability to Obtain Prescription Medications among Medicare Beneficiaries during the COVID-19 Pandemic 在 COVID-19 大流行期间,医疗保险受益人中的优先病症与获得护理、正在进行的病症治疗以及获得处方药的能力之间的关系
Pub Date : 2023-12-20 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010002
Matthew C. Dickson, Grant H. Skrepnek
Several comorbid conditions have been observed to be associated with an increased risk of poor outcomes following a diagnosis of COVID-19. The purpose of this investigation was to assess associations between Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) designated priority conditions and an inability to access care, treat ongoing conditions, and obtain prescription medications among Medicare beneficiaries in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic. Nationally representative CMS Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) COVID-19 Supplement Public Use Files (PUF) were analyzed via bivariable, binomial generalized linear models across three time periods: (1) Summer 2020; (2) Fall 2020; and (3) Winter 2021. Across an estimated 55.3–57.4 million Medicare beneficiaries, approximately one-fifth reported an inability to access at least one type of care at the onset of the pandemic. Significantly worse odds of an ability to get care across various time periods was observed among several priority conditions including immune disorders, cancer, depression, osteoporosis, diabetes, arthritis, and numerous cardiovascular and pulmonary conditions. Among those reporting an inability to access care, approximately one-third involved treatment of an ongoing condition, and under one-tenth involved prescription medications. To identify modifiable risk factors and to develop active interventions, future work should continue to assess the complex associations between outcomes, access to care, comorbidities, evolving healthcare infrastructures, computerization, and various public health initiatives.
据观察,一些合并症与 COVID-19 诊断后不良后果风险增加有关。本调查的目的是评估美国医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心(CMS)指定的优先病症与 COVID-19 大流行期间美国医疗保险受益人无法获得护理、治疗持续病症和获取处方药之间的关联。对具有全国代表性的 CMS 医疗保险当前受益人调查(MCBS)COVID-19 补充公共使用文件(PUF)进行了分析,通过二变量、二项式广义线性模型对三个时间段进行了分析:(1) 2020 年夏季;(2) 2020 年秋季;(3) 2021 年冬季。在约 5530-5740 万名医疗保险受益人中,约有五分之一的人表示在大流行开始时无法获得至少一种类型的护理。据观察,在不同时期,无法获得护理的几率明显降低,其中包括免疫紊乱、癌症、抑郁症、骨质疏松症、糖尿病、关节炎以及多种心血管和肺部疾病。在报告无法获得医疗服务的人群中,约有三分之一涉及到正在进行的疾病治疗,不到十分之一涉及到处方药。为了确定可改变的风险因素并制定积极的干预措施,今后的工作应继续评估结果、获得医疗服务的机会、合并症、不断发展的医疗基础设施、计算机化和各种公共卫生倡议之间的复杂关联。
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引用次数: 0
Video Games and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Virtual Worlds as New Playgrounds and Training Spaces 电子游戏与 COVID-19 大流行:虚拟世界作为新的游乐场和培训场所
Pub Date : 2023-12-19 DOI: 10.3390/covid4010001
Xosé Somoza Medina, Marta Somoza Medina
The COVID-19 pandemic forced the authorities to take an unprecedented measure in history: the house confinement of millions of people worldwide. Video games, especially open-world video games (OWVGs), became meeting spaces, a digital places to play, chat, learn and socialize due to the context of the health crisis, respecting the rules of social distancing. This article analyses the role of video games and, more specifically, OWVGs, as playgrounds and training spaces during the pandemic. Statistical data and analyses carried out by consulting companies and civil associations show the definitive insertion of these video games in our routine and social relations. The challenge is to take advantage of the skills and abilities that these video games develop within a new framework of individual and community learning. The conclusions of the research show that the virtual worlds of video games are for the new digital society, safe and comfortable meeting spaces, and that since the confinement, these digital places have greatly expanded their reach, previously only limited to the gamer community.
COVID-19 大流行迫使当局采取了一项史无前例的措施:在全球范围内对数以百万计的人进行软禁。电子游戏,尤其是开放世界电子游戏(OWVGs),在健康危机的背景下成为了聚会空间,成为了玩耍、聊天、学习和社交的数字场所,同时也尊重了社会距离规则。本文分析了电子游戏,更具体地说,OWVGs 在大流行病期间作为游戏场所和培训空间所发挥的作用。由咨询公司和民间协会进行的统计数据和分析表明,这些电子游戏已明确融入我们的日常工作和社会关系中。我们面临的挑战是如何在个人和社区学习的新框架内利用这些电子游戏所培养的技能和能力。研究结论表明,电子游戏的虚拟世界对于新的数字社会来说,是安全而舒适的聚会场所,而且自封闭以来,这些数字场所的影响范围大大扩展,以前只局限于游戏玩家群体。
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引用次数: 0
Analytical Solution of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered/Removed Model for the Not-Too-Late Temporal Evolution of Epidemics for General Time-Dependent Recovery and Infection Rates 针对一般时间依赖性恢复率和感染率的流行病不太晚时间演变的易感-感染-恢复-移除模型的分析解决方案
Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI: 10.3390/covid3120123
Reinhard Schlickeiser, Martin Kröger
The dynamical equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered/removed (SIR) epidemics model play an important role in predicting and/or analyzing the temporal evolution of epidemic outbreaks. Crucial input quantities are the time-dependent infection (a(t)) and recovery (μ(t)) rates regulating the transitions between the compartments S→I and I→R, respectively. Accurate analytical approximations for the temporal dependence of the rate of new infections J˚(t)=a(t)S(t)I(t) and the corresponding cumulative fraction of new infections J(t)=J(t0)+∫t0tdxJ˚(x) are available in the literature for either stationary infection and recovery rates or for a stationary value of the ratio k(t)=μ(t)/a(t). Here, a new and original accurate analytical approximation is derived for general, arbitrary, and different temporal dependencies of the infection and recovery rates, which is valid for not-too-late times after the start of the infection when the cumulative fraction J(t)≪1 is much less than unity. The comparison of the analytical approximation with the exact numerical solution of the SIR equations for different illustrative examples proves the accuracy of the analytical approach.
易感-感染-恢复-移除(SIR)流行病模型的动力学方程在预测和/或分析流行病爆发的时间演化方面发挥着重要作用。关键的输入量是与时间相关的感染率(a(t))和恢复率(μ(t)),它们分别调节 S→I 和 I→R 区间的转换。对于新感染率 J˚(t)=a(t)S(t)I(t)和相应的新感染累积分数 J(t)=J(t0)+∫t0tdxJ˚(x)的时间依赖性,文献中已有静态感染率和恢复率或比率 k(t)=μ(t)/a(t)的静态值的精确分析近似值。本文针对感染率和恢复率的一般、任意和不同的时间依赖性,推导出一种新的、独创的精确分析近似值,该近似值适用于感染开始后不太晚的时间,此时累积分数 J(t)≪1 远小于统一值。在不同的示例中,分析近似值与 SIR 方程的精确数值解的比较证明了分析方法的准确性。
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引用次数: 0
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COVID
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