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A Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy controller for minimizing cancer cells with application to androgen deprivation therapy 一种用于雄激素剥夺治疗的最小化癌细胞的Takagi-Sugeno模糊控制器
Pub Date : 2023-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100277
Priya Dubey , Surendra Kumar , Subhendu Kumar Behera , Sudhansu Kumar Mishra

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is frequently used to treat prostate cancer which is a widespread disease having a very low survival rate. A prolonged course of ADT can increase toxicity and drug resistance. This study proposes an adaptive therapy combining chemotherapy or immunotherapy with the discontinuation of hormone therapy to overcome these obstacles. The super-twisting sliding mode control (STSMC) algorithm is found to be one of the effective approach as an ADT model for obtaining suitable dosage adaptively. The primary objective is to rapidly reduce the number of cancer cells and the duration of drug exposure. The Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy controller-based active control algorithm is introduced, and it’s performance is compared with the STSMC algorithm. While maintaining global asymptotic stability, the Takagi–Sugeno fuzzy controller reduces the duration of therapy to six months. The controllers are implemented utilizing the linear matrix inequality (LMI) algorithm and the yet another LMI (YALMIP) toolset for MATLAB, and their efficacy is validated utilizing MATLAB and Simulink simulations. This study presents a novel approach to improve prostate cancer treatment outcomes by integrating nonlinear control algorithms and adaptive dosage strategies to reduce treatment duration and minimize drug exposure, thereby improving patient outcomes in prostate cancer management.

前列腺癌是一种普遍存在且生存率极低的疾病,雄激素剥夺疗法(ADT)常用于治疗前列腺癌。延长ADT疗程会增加毒性和耐药性。本研究提出一种结合化疗或免疫治疗与停止激素治疗的适应性治疗来克服这些障碍。超扭转滑模控制(STSMC)算法是ADT模型自适应获取合适剂量的有效方法之一。主要目标是迅速减少癌细胞的数量和药物暴露的持续时间。介绍了基于Takagi-Sugeno模糊控制器的主动控制算法,并将其性能与STSMC算法进行了比较。在保持全局渐近稳定性的同时,Takagi-Sugeno模糊控制器将治疗持续时间缩短至六个月。利用线性矩阵不等式(LMI)算法和另一种基于MATLAB的LMI (YALMIP)工具集实现了控制器,并利用MATLAB和Simulink仿真验证了控制器的有效性。本研究提出了一种新的方法,通过整合非线性控制算法和自适应剂量策略来减少治疗时间和减少药物暴露,从而改善前列腺癌治疗的患者预后。
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引用次数: 0
A deterministic compartmental model for investigating the impact of escapees on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 研究逃亡者对COVID-19传播动态影响的确定性隔间模型
Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100275
Josiah Mushanyu , Chidozie Williams Chukwu , Chinwendu Emilian Madubueze , Zviiteyi Chazuka , Chisara Peace Ogbogbo

The recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has devastated many parts of the globe. Non-pharmaceutical interventions are the widely available measures to combat and control the COVID-19 pandemic. There is great concern over the rampant unaccounted cases of individuals skipping the border during this critical period in time. We develop a deterministic compartmental model to investigate the impact of escapees (individuals who evade mandatory quarantine) on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. A suitable Lyapunov function has shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, provided R0<1. We performed a global sensitivity analysis using the Latin-hyper cube sampling method and partial rank correlation coefficients to determine the most influential model parameters on the short and long-term dynamics of the pandemic to minimize uncertainties associated with our variables and parameters. Results confirm a positive correlation between the number of escapees and the reported COVID-19 cases. It is shown that escapees are primarily responsible for the rapid increase in local transmissions. Also, the results from sensitivity analysis show that an increase in governmental role actions and a reduction in the illegal immigration rate will help to control and contain the disease spread.

最近爆发的新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)大流行给全球许多地区造成了破坏。非药物干预措施是抗击和控制COVID-19大流行的广泛可用措施。在这一关键时期,个人越境的案件猖獗,令人极为关切。我们开发了一个确定性隔间模型来调查逃亡者(逃避强制隔离的个人)对COVID-19传播动态的影响。一个合适的Lyapunov函数表明,当R0<1时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的。我们使用拉丁超立方体抽样方法和部分秩相关系数进行了全球敏感性分析,以确定对大流行短期和长期动态影响最大的模型参数,以最大限度地减少与我们的变量和参数相关的不确定性。结果证实,逃亡人数与报告的COVID-19病例之间存在正相关关系。结果表明,逃亡者是造成当地传播迅速增加的主要原因。此外,敏感性分析的结果表明,增加政府角色行动和减少非法移民率将有助于控制和遏制疾病的传播。
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引用次数: 0
A non-integer order model for Zika and Dengue co-dynamics with cross-enhancement 具有交叉增强的寨卡和登革热协同动力学非整数阶模型
Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100276
N.O. Iheonu , U.K. Nwajeri , A. Omame

A novel fractional derivative model with nine compartments is formulated to investigate the transmission dynamics of zika and dengue co-infection. The Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative in the Caputo sense was employed. The conditions for a unique solution are identified, and the solutions’ positivity and boundedness are demonstrated. The disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) and basic reproduction number, R0, were obtained. The DFE was shown to be locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one. Zika-associated reproduction number, R0z, and dengue-associated reproduction number, R0d, were estimated to be 1.0144 and 1.1724, respectively. The system was shown to be generalized Ulam Hyers–Rassias stable, and the Adam–Bashforth method was used to provide its’ numerical solution. Sensitivity analysis using the Latin Hyper-cube Sampling (LHS) and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) (|PRCC|> 0.45) with 200 runs was carried out using various variables as response functions per time. The most significant parameters were found to be zika human-to-human transmission rate, β hz1, vector death rate, μ v, zika recovery rate, γ hz1 and dengue vector-to-human transmission rate, β hd. Real data from Espirito Santo in Brazil is used to validate the model and fit needed parameter values. Numerical simulations illustrated the impact of varying the fractional order derivative, recovery rates, transmission rates, and cross-enhancement parameters on the infected human compartments. The zika Human-to-human transmission rate, β hz1, was found to be a very significant parameter in the control of zika disease transmission. Increasing the vector death rate, μ v, was more important in curbing dengue prevalence and incidence than the attainment of recovery from the dengue disease, and the absence of the zika Vector-to-human transmission rate, β hz3, was almost insignificant in the presence of the zika Human-to-human transmission rate, β hz1, for disease eradication. This study suggested control measures and strategies to decrease the dengue and zika human-to-human transmission rates.

本文建立了一种具有9个区室的分数阶导数模型,用于研究寨卡病毒和登革热合并感染的传播动力学。采用了卡普托意义上的Atangana-Baleanu分数导数。给出了唯一解的条件,并证明了解的正性和有界性。得到了无病平衡点(DFE)和基本繁殖数(R0)。当基本复制数小于1时,DFE是局部渐近稳定的。寨卡相关繁殖数R0z和登革热相关繁殖数R0d分别为1.0144和1.1724。证明了该系统具有广义Ulam Hyers-Rassias稳定,并利用Adam-Bashforth方法给出了该系统的数值解。拉丁超立方抽样(LHS)和偏秩相关系数(PRCC)敏感性分析(|PRCC|>0.45),每次使用各种变量作为响应函数进行200次运行。结果表明,寨卡病毒人传人率β hz1、病媒死亡率、μ v、寨卡病毒回收率、γ hz1和登革热病媒人传人率β hd最为显著。使用巴西Espirito Santo的真实数据验证模型并拟合所需参数值。数值模拟说明了改变分数阶导数、恢复率、传播率和交叉增强参数对受感染的人类隔间的影响。寨卡病毒人传人率β hz1是控制寨卡病毒传播的重要参数。在控制登革热流行和发病率方面,提高媒介死亡率(μ v)比实现登革热的康复更为重要;在存在寨卡人传人率(β hz1)的情况下,不存在寨卡人传人率(β hz3)对根除疾病的影响几乎微不足道。本研究提出了降低登革热和寨卡病毒人际传播率的控制措施和策略。
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引用次数: 0
Democratizing insights into hospital cost reports 医院成本报告民主化
Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100274
Kenneth J. Locey, Brian D. Stein

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) provides annual reports of costs, charges, utilization, payment, penalty, payroll, and general institutional characteristics for thousands of Medicare-certified hospitals. However, beyond the small fraction of features offered in dated finalized public use files, the size and complexity of cost report data can make it difficult to use. To gain a greater breadth of up-to-date insights, hospitals and researchers must either pay for third party services or acquire the appropriate expertise. To democratize insights into cost report data, we first developed an open-source public repository of 6908 hospital-specific dataset, each containing 2843 labeled features and spanning years between 2010 and 2023. We then developed an open-source application for analyzing and downloading these data. Users can download and run the application locally or access it online (https://hcris-app.herokuapp.com/), and compare cost report features among hospitals and across time, explore relationships between features, and design new cost report variables. As examples of insights gained from our application, we present results from comparing Rush University Medical Center to 66 non-governmental acute care Illinois hospitals. We look forward to developing our open-source resources according to feedback from the healthcare community.

医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心(CMS)为数千家获得医疗保险认证的医院提供成本、收费、使用、支付、罚款、工资和一般机构特征的年度报告。然而,除了过时的最终公共使用文件中提供的一小部分功能之外,成本报告数据的大小和复杂性可能使其难以使用。为了获得更广泛的最新见解,医院和研究人员必须要么支付第三方服务费用,要么获得适当的专业知识。为了使成本报告数据的洞察民主化,我们首先开发了一个开源的公共存储库,包含6908个医院特定数据集,每个数据集包含2843个标记特征,涵盖2010年至2023年之间的年份。然后我们开发了一个开源应用程序来分析和下载这些数据。用户可以在本地下载并运行该应用程序,也可以在线访问(https://hcris-app.herokuapp.com/),比较不同医院和不同时间的成本报告功能,探索功能之间的关系,并设计新的成本报告变量。作为从我们的应用程序中获得的见解的例子,我们展示了将拉什大学医学中心与66家伊利诺伊州非政府急性护理医院进行比较的结果。我们期待着根据医疗保健社区的反馈来开发我们的开源资源。
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引用次数: 0
A risk assessment and prediction framework for diabetes mellitus using machine learning algorithms 基于机器学习算法的糖尿病风险评估与预测框架
Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100273
Salliah Shafi Bhat , Madhina Banu , Gufran Ahmad Ansari , Venkatesan Selvam

Diabetes disease seriously threatens people's health and is becoming more common nowadays. Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a condition caused by high blood sugar levels, inactivity, unhealthy eating, being overweight, and other factors. This research article analyzed and examined various risk prediction models and algorithms for diabetes, including Type 1, Type 2, and Gestational Diabetes. This study develops several Machine Learning (ML) models for predicting diabetes using various datasets. The process involves producing highly informative features called Feature Engineering (FE). We used the Pima Indian Diabetes Dataset (PIDD) to experiment with and examine the effectiveness of ML models' ability to predict diabetes. Using Python programming, we used three classification algorithms, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boost, and Decision Tree, and combined feature selection techniques among the classification techniques, Decision Tree has the highest accuracy rate (91 %), precision (96 %), recall (92 %), and Fi score (94 %).

糖尿病严重威胁着人们的身体健康,并且越来越普遍。糖尿病(DM)是一种由高血糖、缺乏运动、不健康饮食、超重和其他因素引起的疾病。这篇研究文章分析和检验了糖尿病的各种风险预测模型和算法,包括1型糖尿病、2型糖尿病和妊娠糖尿病。本研究开发了几种机器学习(ML)模型,用于使用各种数据集预测糖尿病。这个过程包括产生高信息量的特征,称为特征工程(Feature Engineering, FE)。我们使用皮马印第安人糖尿病数据集(PIDD)来试验和检验ML模型预测糖尿病能力的有效性。使用Python编程,采用Logistic回归、梯度提升和决策树三种分类算法,并结合分类技术中的特征选择技术,决策树具有最高的准确率(91%)、精密度(96%)、召回率(92%)和Fi分数(94%)。
{"title":"A risk assessment and prediction framework for diabetes mellitus using machine learning algorithms","authors":"Salliah Shafi Bhat ,&nbsp;Madhina Banu ,&nbsp;Gufran Ahmad Ansari ,&nbsp;Venkatesan Selvam","doi":"10.1016/j.health.2023.100273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.health.2023.100273","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Diabetes disease seriously threatens people's health and is becoming more common nowadays. Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a condition caused by high blood sugar levels, inactivity, unhealthy eating, being overweight, and other factors. This research article analyzed and examined various risk prediction models and algorithms for diabetes, including Type 1, Type 2, and Gestational Diabetes. This study develops several Machine Learning (ML) models for predicting diabetes using various datasets. The process involves producing highly informative features called Feature Engineering (FE). We used the Pima Indian Diabetes Dataset (PIDD) to experiment with and examine the effectiveness of ML models' ability to predict diabetes. Using Python programming, we used three classification algorithms, Logistic Regression, Gradient Boost, and Decision Tree, and combined feature selection techniques among the classification techniques, Decision Tree has the highest accuracy rate (91 %), precision (96 %), recall (92 %), and Fi score (94 %).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":73222,"journal":{"name":"Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"4 ","pages":"Article 100273"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772442523001405/pdfft?md5=0eb0088277442a491debaaea7ad5d6d2&pid=1-s2.0-S2772442523001405-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"109127160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An integrated infoveillance approach using google trends and Talkwalker: Listening to web concerns about COVID-19 vaccines in Italy 利用谷歌趋势和对讲机的综合信息监测方法:倾听意大利网络上对COVID-19疫苗的担忧
Pub Date : 2023-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100272
Alessandro Rovetta

An infodemic is an information epidemic capable of compromising public health. This manuscript proposes an infoveillance method suitable for listening to web concerns on health to develop adequate infodemiological responses based on the World Health Organization indications. In particular, the case of COVID-19 vaccinations in Italy was investigated. Web interest and concern in COVID-19 vaccines over the past week (January 8–14, 2023) was investigated via the websites Google Trends and Talkwalker by searching for appropriate keywords. Thanks to the analysis of related queries and topics, it was possible to determine and examine the most debated topics relating to specific side effects. Emotional reactions regarding COVID-19 vaccines have been negative in varying percentages between 40 and 70 %, depending on the topic discussed. Feelings of alarm, derision, doubt, and anger were common (about 60 %). The concerns were mainly about the effectiveness against recent COVID-19 variants and alleged side effects such as sudden death, tumors, myocarditis, prion disease, and high ferritin. The most used media among those scrutinized was Twitter (over 90 % of interactions). The male audience participated more and showed more negativity than the female one. The age groups mainly involved were the under-45s. This research discussed the combined use of Google Trends and Talkwalker to conduct rapid infoveillance surveys. The results found showed that the web public has many doubts about COVID-19 vaccines, including the appearance of very rare or unproved side effects. Based on the WHO infodemic management strategy, it is essential that this or similar approaches are adopted by health and government authorities to listen to the community and calibrate appropriate infodemiological responses aimed at preserving public health.

信息流行病是一种能够危害公众健康的信息流行病。本文提出了一种信息监测方法,适合于听取网络对健康的关注,以根据世界卫生组织的指示制定适当的信息流行病学反应。特别是对意大利的COVID-19疫苗接种案例进行了调查。通过谷歌Trends和Talkwalker网站搜索合适的关键词,调查过去一周(2023年1月8日至14日)网络对COVID-19疫苗的兴趣和关注。通过对相关查询和主题的分析,可以确定和检查与特定副作用相关的最具争议的主题。根据讨论的主题,对COVID-19疫苗的情绪反应在40%至70%之间的不同百分比之间是负面的。惊恐、嘲笑、怀疑和愤怒的感觉是常见的(约60%)。人们的担忧主要是针对新冠病毒变体的有效性,以及猝死、肿瘤、心肌炎、朊病毒病和高铁蛋白等副作用。在被调查的人群中,使用最多的媒体是Twitter(超过90%的互动)。男性观众比女性观众参与更多,表现出更多的消极情绪。主要涉及的年龄组是45岁以下。本研究讨论了谷歌Trends和Talkwalker的联合使用,以进行快速信息监控调查。结果发现,网络公众对COVID-19疫苗存在许多疑虑,包括出现非常罕见或未经证实的副作用。根据世卫组织的信息管理战略,卫生和政府当局必须采取这种或类似的方法,听取社区的意见,并制定适当的信息流行病学应对措施,以维护公众健康。
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引用次数: 0
A COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness model using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model 基于易感-暴露-感染-恢复模型的COVID-19疫苗有效性模型
Pub Date : 2023-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100269
Sabariah Saharan, Cunzhe Tee

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in the world, including Malaysia and Thailand. This study identifies the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak before and after the vaccination campaign by using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) models. Moreover, we predict the daily reported death and recovery cases using the SEIR model and Holt's linear trend method and then evaluate their performance. The data used in this study is real data from Malaysia and Thailand. The SEIRV model provides a comprehensive view of the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccinations in curbing the COVID-19 outbreak. This research reveals that the SEIR model outperforms Holt's linear trend method in predicting daily reported cases.

严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2型(SARS-CoV-2)引发了包括马来西亚和泰国在内的世界范围内的COVID-19疫情。本研究通过使用易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)和易感-暴露-感染-恢复-接种(SEIRV)模型确定了疫苗接种运动前后COVID-19爆发的趋势。利用SEIR模型和Holt线性趋势法对日报告死亡病例和康复病例进行预测,并对其性能进行评价。本研究使用的数据是来自马来西亚和泰国的真实数据。SEIRV模型提供了对COVID-19疫苗在遏制COVID-19爆发中的效果的全面看法。本研究表明,SEIR模型在预测每日报告病例方面优于Holt的线性趋势方法。
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引用次数: 0
Transfer learning architectures with fine-tuning for brain tumor classification using magnetic resonance imaging 使用磁共振成像对脑肿瘤分类进行微调的迁移学习架构
Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100270
Md. Monirul Islam , Prema Barua , Moshiur Rahman , Tanvir Ahammed , Laboni Akter , Jia Uddin

Deep learning methods in artificial intelligence are used for brain tumor diagnosis as they handle a huge amount of data. Compared to computerized tomography (CT), Ultrasound, and X-ray imaging, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is effectively used for machine vision-based brain tumor diagnosis. However, due to the complex nature of the brain, brain tumor diagnosis is always challenging. This research aims to study the effectiveness of deep transfer learning architectures in brain tumor diagnosis. This paper applies four transfer learning architectures- InceptionV3, VGG19, DenseNet121, and MobileNet. We used a dataset with data from three benchmark databases of figshare, SARTAJ, and Br35H to validate the models. These databases have four classes: pituitary, no tumor, meningioma, and glioma. Image augmentation is applied to make the classes balanced. Experimental results demonstrate that the MobileNet outperforms competing methods by exhibiting an accuracy of 99.60%.

人工智能领域的深度学习方法处理大量数据,因此被用于脑肿瘤诊断。与计算机断层扫描(CT)、超声和x射线成像相比,磁共振成像(MRI)有效地用于基于机器视觉的脑肿瘤诊断。然而,由于大脑的复杂性,脑肿瘤的诊断一直具有挑战性。本研究旨在研究深度迁移学习架构在脑肿瘤诊断中的有效性。本文采用了四种迁移学习架构——InceptionV3、VGG19、DenseNet121和MobileNet。我们使用了来自figshare、SARTAJ和Br35H三个基准数据库的数据集来验证模型。这些数据库分为四类:脑垂体、无肿瘤、脑膜瘤和胶质瘤。应用图像增强使类平衡。实验结果表明,MobileNet的准确率达到99.60%,优于同类方法。
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引用次数: 0
An ordinary differential equation model for assessing the impact of lifestyle intervention on type 2 diabetes epidemic 生活方式干预对2型糖尿病流行影响的常微分方程模型
Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100271
Anika Ferdous

Diabetes is a chronic glucose metabolism disorder with severe clinical consequences. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus, in particular Type 2 Diabetes (T2D), is rising dramatically globally. Several clinical trials provide evidence that lifestyle interventions can prevent or delay the development of T2D, but the impact of lifestyle interventions is seldom investigated using a mathematical model. This study assesses the effects of lifestyle interventions on people by constructing an ordinary differential equation model. In this paper, a general model is developed based on the dynamics of T2D by incorporating a control variable termed as healthy lifestyle. The population is subdivided into five classes: susceptible, affected, treated, healthy lifestyle, and prevented. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to identify the most important parameters, and the stability of the equilibrium point is analyzed. Numerical simulations are conducted using a diabetes data set in Bangladesh to investigate the model's dynamic behavior. The results from this study reveal that maintaining a healthy lifestyle slows disease progression. The sensitivity analysis shows that the healthy lifestyle rate, treatment rate, and diabetes rate from susceptible and healthy lifestyle classes are the most sensitive parameters. Moreover, the study also concludes that diabetes cannot completely be eliminated, but with proper control measures, the burden can be reduced. The findings from the study provide strong reasons to continue implementing lifestyle interventions to prevent the global epidemic and its adverse effects.

糖尿病是一种慢性糖代谢紊乱,具有严重的临床后果。糖尿病的患病率,特别是2型糖尿病(T2D),在全球范围内急剧上升。一些临床试验提供证据表明,生活方式干预可以预防或延缓T2D的发展,但很少使用数学模型来研究生活方式干预的影响。本研究通过建立常微分方程模型来评估生活方式干预对人们的影响。在本文中,一般模型是建立在动态的T2D的基础上,通过纳入一个控制变量称为健康的生活方式。人口被细分为五类:易感、受影响、治疗、健康生活方式和预防。通过灵敏度分析确定了最重要的参数,并对平衡点的稳定性进行了分析。利用孟加拉国的糖尿病数据集进行了数值模拟,以研究该模型的动态行为。这项研究的结果表明,保持健康的生活方式可以减缓疾病的发展。敏感性分析显示,健康生活方式率、治愈率和糖尿病发病率是易感人群和健康生活方式人群中最敏感的参数。此外,该研究还得出结论,糖尿病不能完全消除,但通过适当的控制措施,可以减轻负担。这项研究的结果为继续实施生活方式干预措施以预防全球流行病及其不利影响提供了强有力的理由。
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引用次数: 0
A mathematical analysis of the two-strain tuberculosis model dynamics with exogenous re-infection 外源性再感染下两株结核模型动力学的数学分析
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2023.100266
Benjamin Idoko Omede , Olumuyiwa James Peter , William Atokolo , Bolarinwa Bolaji , Tawakalt Abosede Ayoola

The rise of drug resistance has become a major obstacle in treating tuberculosis (TB), significantly contributing to the increasing disease burden. Therefore, it is essential to study the transmission dynamics of the disease, considering the factors that contribute to the strain’s impact on the disease burden, using an epidemiological model. We present a deterministic mathematical model that explores the dynamics of TB with two strains: drug-susceptible and drug-resistant, taking into account exogenous re-infection. We thoroughly analyze to gain insights into the behavior of the model. The qualitative analysis of the model reveals an interesting phenomenon known as “backward bifurcation,” where both stable disease-free and stable endemic equilibria coexist when the associated reproduction number is less than one. In the absence of exogenous re-infection, the model shows the existence of unique positive endemic equilibria. Numerical simulations were conducted, yielding noteworthy results. Increasing the treatment rate for individuals infected with the drug-susceptible strain reduces the number of new cases of drug-susceptible TB while increasing the detection of drug-resistant TB cases. The simulations demonstrate that drug-susceptible and drug-resistant TB strains can coexist when their reproduction numbers exceed one without competitive exclusion occurring. In summary, this study sheds light on the challenges posed by drug resistance in TB treatment and highlights the importance of understanding the disease dynamics through mathematical modeling to develop effective strategies for its control.

耐药性的增加已成为治疗结核病的一个主要障碍,大大增加了疾病负担。因此,有必要利用流行病学模型研究该病的传播动力学,考虑到导致菌株对疾病负担产生影响的因素。我们提出了一个确定性的数学模型,探讨了两种菌株的结核病动力学:药物敏感和耐药,考虑到外源性再感染。我们进行彻底的分析,以深入了解模型的行为。该模型的定性分析揭示了一个有趣的现象,即“后向分叉”,即当相关的繁殖数小于1时,稳定的无病平衡和稳定的地方性平衡共存。在没有外源再感染的情况下,该模型显示存在唯一的正地方性平衡。进行了数值模拟,得到了显著的结果。提高对感染药物敏感菌株的个体的治疗率,可减少药物敏感结核病新病例的数量,同时增加耐药结核病病例的发现。模拟表明,当它们的繁殖数量超过1时,药物敏感和耐药结核菌株可以共存,而不会发生竞争排斥。总之,这项研究揭示了结核病治疗中耐药性带来的挑战,并强调了通过数学建模了解疾病动态以制定有效控制策略的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
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Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
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