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A descriptive analytics of the COVID-19 pandemic in a middle-income country with forward-looking insights 对一个中等收入国家 COVID-19 流行病的描述性分析及前瞻性见解
Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100320
Norvin P. Bansilan, Jomar F. Rabajante

The outbreak of COVID-19 unleashed an unprecedented global pandemic, profoundly impacting lives and economies worldwide. Recognizing its severity, the World Health Organization (WHO) swiftly declared it a public health emergency of international concern. In response to this crisis, collaborative efforts have been underway to control the disease and minimize its health and socio-economic impacts worldwide. The COVID-19 epidemic curve holds vital insights into the history of exposure, transmission, testing, tracing, social distancing measures, community lockdowns, quarantine, isolation, and treatment, offering a comprehensive perspective on the nation’s response. One approach to gaining crucial insights is through meticulous analysis of available datasets, empowering us to effectively inform future strategies and responses. This study aims to provide descriptive data analytics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines, summarizing the country’s fight by visualizing epidemiological and mobility datasets, revisiting scientific papers and news articles, and creating a timeline of the critical issues faced during the pandemic. By leveraging these multifaceted analyses, policymakers and health authorities can make informed decisions to enhance preparedness, expand inter-agency cooperation, and effectively combat future public health crises. This study seeks to serve as a valuable resource, guiding nations worldwide in comprehending and responding to the challenges posed by COVID-19 and beyond.

COVID-19 的爆发引发了一场史无前例的全球大流行,对全世界的生命和经济造成了深远影响。世界卫生组织(WHO)认识到这一疾病的严重性,迅速宣布其为国际关注的公共卫生紧急事件。为应对这一危机,各方通力合作,努力控制疫情,将其对全球健康和社会经济的影响降至最低。COVID-19 疫情曲线对接触、传播、检测、追踪、社会隔离措施、社区封锁、检疫、隔离和治疗的历史具有重要的启示意义,为国家的应对措施提供了一个全面的视角。获得重要见解的方法之一是对现有数据集进行细致分析,使我们能够有效地为未来战略和应对措施提供信息。本研究旨在提供菲律宾 COVID-19 大流行的描述性数据分析,通过可视化流行病学和流动性数据集、重温科学论文和新闻报道以及创建大流行期间所面临关键问题的时间表,总结菲律宾的抗击工作。通过利用这些多方面的分析,政策制定者和卫生当局可以做出明智的决策,以加强准备工作,扩大机构间合作,并有效应对未来的公共卫生危机。本研究旨在提供宝贵的资源,指导世界各国理解和应对 COVID-19 及其后带来的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
A nonlinear mathematical model for exploring the optimal cost-effective therapeutic strategies and within-host viral infections spread dynamics 探索最佳成本效益治疗策略和宿主内部病毒感染传播动态的非线性数学模型
Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100321
Afeez Abidemi , Mohammad Alnegga , Taofeek O. Alade

This study presents a nonlinear mathematical model to capture the constant rates of three different target cells class-specific drug therapeutic measures (namely, drug therapy for blocking new infections, drug therapy for actively infected cells, and drug therapy inhibiting viral production) for the dynamics of within-host viral infections with multiple classes of target cells. The threshold quantity of the control reproduction number of the model is calculated. The global asymptotic behaviours of the model around the steady states are investigated in terms of the control reproduction number. Moreover, the model is extended to an optimal control problem by considering the three constant parameters for drug therapeutic measures as time-dependent control variables. Qualitative analysis of the proposed model is conducted using optimal control theory. Numerical solutions of the derived optimality system are sought to illustrate the efficacies of different combination strategies consisting of using at least any of the three target cells’ class-specific optimal controls in reducing the burden of within-host virus transmission and spread at a minimum cost. Cost-effectiveness analysis is further carried out to determine the least costly and most effective intervention strategy. The cost analysis reveals that the use of only target cells class-specific drug therapy control for blocking new infections is the most cost-effective control strategy.

本研究提出了一种非线性数学模型,以捕捉三种不同靶细胞类别特异性药物治疗措施(即阻断新感染的药物治疗、治疗活跃感染细胞的药物治疗和抑制病毒产生的药物治疗)的恒定速率,用于多类靶细胞宿主内病毒感染的动态变化。计算了模型的控制繁殖数量阈值。根据控制繁殖数研究了模型在稳态附近的全局渐近行为。此外,将药物治疗措施的三个常量参数视为随时间变化的控制变量,从而将模型扩展为优化控制问题。利用最优控制理论对提出的模型进行了定性分析。对推导出的优化系统寻求数值解,以说明不同组合策略的效果,包括至少使用三个目标细胞类别中任何一个的特定优化控制,以最低成本减少宿主内病毒传播和扩散的负担。我们还进一步进行了成本效益分析,以确定成本最低、最有效的干预策略。成本分析表明,仅使用靶细胞类特异性药物治疗控制来阻止新感染是最具成本效益的控制策略。
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引用次数: 0
An integrated multi-criteria approach to formulate and assess healthcare referral system strategies in developing countries 发展中国家制定和评估医疗转诊系统战略的综合多标准方法
Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100315
Mouhamed Bayane Bouraima , Stefan Jovčić , Libor Švadlenka , Vladimir Simic , Ibrahim Badi , Naibei Dan Maraka

This study aims to identify challenges in implementing a quality healthcare referral system in developing countries and explore the strategies to overcome these challenges. Data for this study were collected through consultations with experts in the field. We introduce a novel hybrid method called Criteria Importance Assessment (CIMAS) and Alternative Ranking Order Method Accounting for Two-Step Normalization (AROMAN). CIMAS determines the relative importance of criteria, and AROMAN is employed to rank the strategies. The primary challenges identified include inadequate infrastructure facilities and deficient health information systems. The most appropriate strategy involves focusing on improving infrastructure facilities. We also carry out comprehensive sensitivity and comparative analyses to validate the applicability of the proposed model. This study identifies and elucidates the challenges of establishing a high-quality healthcare referral system in developing countries and substantially contributes to the existing body of knowledge by effectively delineating and prioritizing the strategies to tackle these challenges.

本研究旨在确定发展中国家在实施优质医疗转诊系统方面所面临的挑战,并探讨克服这些挑战的策略。本研究的数据是通过咨询该领域的专家收集的。我们引入了一种名为标准重要性评估(CIMAS)和两步归一化替代排序法(AROMAN)的新型混合方法。CIMAS 确定标准的相对重要性,而 AROMAN 则用于对战略进行排序。确定的主要挑战包括基础设施不足和卫生信息系统缺陷。最合适的战略是重点改善基础设施。我们还进行了全面的敏感性分析和比较分析,以验证拟议模型的适用性。本研究确定并阐明了在发展中国家建立高质量医疗转诊系统所面临的挑战,并通过有效划分和优先排序应对这些挑战的策略,对现有知识体系做出了重大贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Rush regression workbench: An integrated open-source application for regression modeling and analysis in healthcare analytics Rush 回归工作台:用于医疗分析中回归建模和分析的集成开源应用程序
Pub Date : 2024-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100314
Kenneth Locey, Ryan Schipfer, Brittnie Dotson

Regression is widely used in healthcare analytics, whether for examining hospital quality and safety, characterizing patterns of patient volume and healthcare costs, or predicting patient outcomes. Simple linear regression and other basic forms can be conducted with spreadsheet programs and are useful for examining simple linear relationships. However, expert statistical knowledge, computational skills, and specialized tools may be needed to characterize nonlinear relationships and complex interactions, to examine data that fail the assumptions of linear regression, to identify confounding variables and lessen the influence of outliers, and to build and evaluate predictive models. We constructed the Rush Regression Workbench to accomplish these tasks and to automate cautious and sophisticated analyses, provide interpretive outputs, enable reproducible results, and to provide the community with an evolving open-source good containing a diverse set of analyses and a growing library of over 170 preprocessed public healthcare datasets. The Rush Regression Workbench can be accessed via the web or downloaded and used locally.

回归被广泛应用于医疗分析中,无论是检查医院质量和安全、描述患者数量和医疗成本模式,还是预测患者预后。简单的线性回归和其他基本形式的回归可以通过电子表格程序进行,对于检查简单的线性关系非常有用。然而,要描述非线性关系和复杂的相互作用,检查不符合线性回归假设的数据,识别混杂变量和减少异常值的影响,以及建立和评估预测模型,可能需要专业的统计知识、计算技能和专用工具。我们构建了 Rush 回归工作台来完成这些任务,并将谨慎而复杂的分析自动化,提供解释性输出,实现结果的可重复性,并为社区提供一个不断发展的开源工具,其中包含一系列不同的分析和一个不断扩大的、包含 170 多个预处理公共医疗保健数据集的库。Rush 回归工作台可通过网络访问,也可下载并在本地使用。
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引用次数: 0
A fusion of machine learning algorithms and traditional statistical forecasting models for analyzing American healthcare expenditure 融合机器学习算法和传统统计预测模型分析美国医疗支出
Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100312
John Wang , Zhaoqiong Qin , Jeffrey Hsu , Bin Zhou

The American healthcare system allocates considerable resources compared to peer-developed nations. However, outcomes significantly trail behind, particularly in life expectancy. This study addresses questions about the enduring trends in healthcare spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), notable factors contributing to this concerning trend, and the timing to apply an emergency brake to curb this accelerating trajectory. Advanced machine learning algorithms, such as Random Forest and Support Vector Regression (SVR), in conjunction with traditional statistical forecasting methods, are used to forecast future patterns. The research underscores the importance of healthcare analytics in unraveling the intricacies of the healthcare system. The findings highlight the pressing need for effective policies to confront this mounting challenge.

与同类发达国家相比,美国的医疗保健系统分配了大量资源。然而,结果却明显落后,尤其是在预期寿命方面。本研究探讨了医疗保健支出占国内生产总值 (GDP) 百分比的长期趋势、导致这一令人担忧的趋势的显著因素,以及采取紧急制动措施以遏制这一加速趋势的时机等问题。随机森林和支持向量回归 (SVR) 等先进的机器学习算法与传统的统计预测方法相结合,用于预测未来的模式。这项研究强调了医疗分析在揭示错综复杂的医疗系统方面的重要性。研究结果突出表明,迫切需要制定有效的政策来应对这一日益严峻的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative analysis of boosting algorithms for chronic liver disease prediction 用于慢性肝病预测的增强算法比较分析
Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100313
Shahid Mohammad Ganie , Pijush Kanti Dutta Pramanik

Chronic liver disease (CLD) is a major health concern for millions of people all over the globe. Early prediction and identification are critical for taking appropriate action at the earliest stages of the disease. Implementing machine learning methods in predicting CLD can greatly improve medical outcomes, reduce the burden of the condition, and promote proactive and preventive healthcare practices for those at risk. However, traditional machine learning has some limitations which can be mitigated through ensemble learning. Boosting is the most advantageous ensemble learning approach. This study aims to improve the performance of the available boosting techniques for CLD prediction. Seven popular boosting algorithms of Gradient Boosting (GB), AdaBoost, LogitBoost, SGBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and two publicly available popular CLD datasets (Liver disease patient dataset (LDPD) and Indian liver disease patient dataset (ILPD)) of dissimilar size and demography are considered in this study. The features of the datasets are ascertained by exploratory data analysis. Additionally, hyperparameter tuning, normalisation, and upsampling are used for predictive analytics. The proportional importance of every feature contributing to CLD for every algorithm is assessed. Each algorithm's performance on both datasets is assessed using k-fold cross-validation, twelve metrics, and runtime. Among the five boosting algorithms, GB emerged as the best overall performer for both datasets. It attained 98.80% and 98.29% accuracy rates for LDPD and ILPD, respectively. GB also outperformed other boosting algorithms regarding other performance metrics except runtime.

慢性肝病(CLD)是全球数百万人的主要健康问题。早期预测和识别对于在疾病的早期阶段采取适当行动至关重要。采用机器学习方法预测慢性肝病可以大大改善医疗效果,减轻病情负担,并促进高危人群采取积极的预防性保健措施。然而,传统的机器学习存在一些局限性,而通过集合学习可以缓解这些局限性。集群学习(Boosting)是最有优势的集群学习方法。本研究旨在提高现有助推技术在 CLD 预测中的性能。本研究考虑了梯度提升(GB)、AdaBoost、LogitBoost、SGBoost、XGBoost、LightGBM 和 CatBoost 七种流行的提升算法,以及两个公开的流行 CLD 数据集(肝病患者数据集 (LDPD) 和印度肝病患者数据集 (ILPD)),这两个数据集的规模和人口统计学特征各不相同。数据集的特征是通过探索性数据分析确定的。此外,超参数调整、归一化和上采样被用于预测分析。评估了每种算法的每个特征对 CLD 的重要性比例。使用 k 倍交叉验证、12 个指标和运行时间评估了每种算法在两个数据集上的性能。在五种提升算法中,GB 在两个数据集上的整体表现最佳。它对 LDPD 和 ILPD 的准确率分别达到了 98.80% 和 98.29%。除运行时间外,GB 在其他性能指标上也优于其他提升算法。
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引用次数: 0
A compartmental deterministic epidemiological model with non-linear differential equations for analyzing the co-infection dynamics between COVID-19, HIV, and Monkeypox diseases 利用非线性微分方程的分区确定性流行病学模型分析 COVID-19、艾滋病毒和猴痘之间的共同感染动态
Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100311
O. Odiba Peace , O. Acheneje Godwin , Bolarinwa Bolaji

One of the realities of the COVID-19 worldwide pandemic is the occurrence of infected individuals with COVID-19 and two other diseases, Monkeypox and HIV. This study presents a compartmental deterministic epidemiological model with non-linear differential equations to study the transmission dynamics of the co-infection of the three diseases. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium was locally and globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number of the diseases was not up to unity, showing that the spread of the diseases and their co-circulation can be effectively controlled in this circumstance. Real-life data about the diseases are collated and fitted to the model through which values of key parameters of the model were estimated. These parameters’ values were used to carry out numerical simulations of the model using MATLAB and validate the qualitative results obtained earlier from the model. The numerical simulation of the model was used to explore the interactions and dynamics resulting from the co-infection of COVID-19, HIV, and Monkeypox in humans, including the reciprocal impacts of each of the diseases on the other two, their patterns of coexistence and their effects on the host. We developed a tool to help predict the co-infection of the three diseases. Through the insights gained in this study, recommendations were made to policymakers in the healthcare sector on how to combat effectively and adequately the co-infection of the three diseases in the human population and mitigate their disease burden.

COVID-19 在全球大流行的现实情况之一是出现 COVID-19 和另外两种疾病(猴痘和艾滋病毒)的感染者。本研究提出了一个带有非线性微分方程的分区确定性流行病学模型,以研究三种疾病共同感染的传播动态。对模型的严格分析表明,当疾病的相关繁殖数量未达到统一时,无疾病平衡是局部和全局渐近稳定的,这表明在这种情况下疾病的传播和共同感染可以得到有效控制。我们整理了有关疾病的真实数据,并将这些数据拟合到模型中,从而估算出模型的关键参数值。这些参数值被用于使用 MATLAB 对模型进行数值模拟,并验证之前从模型中获得的定性结果。该模型的数值模拟用于探索 COVID-19、HIV 和猴痘共同感染人类后的相互作用和动态变化,包括每种疾病对其他两种疾病的相互影响、共存模式以及对宿主的影响。我们开发了一种工具来帮助预测这三种疾病的共同感染。通过这项研究获得的洞察力,我们向医疗保健部门的决策者提出了如何有效、充分地防治这三种疾病在人类中的合并感染并减轻其疾病负担的建议。
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引用次数: 0
A novel deep learning graph attention network for Alzheimer’s disease image segmentation 用于阿尔茨海默病图像分割的新型深度学习图注意网络
Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100310
Md Easin Hasan , Amy Wagler

Neuronal cell segmentation identifies and separates individual neurons in an image, typically to study their properties or analyze their organization in the nervous system. This is significant because neurological problems and diseases can only be treated effectively when the structure and function of neurons are understood. The proposed method is based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and graph attention networks (GATs) for segmenting biomedical images. A contracting path built upon a couple of convolution layers and max pooling is included in the architecture to capture context. After that, the GATs are applied to the captured context. In GATs, each node in the graph is associated with a vector of hidden features, and the model calculates attention coefficients between pairs of nodes. These attention coefficients are learned during training and can be used to weigh the contribution of each node’s features to the representation of the graph. An expanding path that utilizes the outputs generated by GATs paves the way for exact segmentation. The dataset comprises 606 microscopic images, mainly categorized into different cell types (astrocytes, cortex, and SHSY5Y). By implementing our proposed U-GAT algorithm, we obtained the highest accuracy of 86.5% and an F1 score of 0.719 compared to the CNN, U-Net, SegResNet, SegNet VGG16, and GAT benchmarking algorithms. This proposed method could help researchers in the biotech industry develop novel drugs since a more accurate deep-learning method is essential for segmenting complex images like neuronal images.

神经元细胞分割可识别和分离图像中的单个神经元,通常用于研究神经元的特性或分析神经元在神经系统中的组织结构。这一点意义重大,因为只有了解神经元的结构和功能,才能有效治疗神经系统问题和疾病。所提出的方法基于卷积神经网络(CNN)和图注意网络(GAT),用于分割生物医学图像。为了捕捉上下文,架构中包含了一条建立在几个卷积层和最大池化基础上的收缩路径。然后,将 GAT 应用于捕获的上下文。在 GATs 中,图中的每个节点都与隐藏特征的向量相关联,模型计算节点对之间的注意力系数。这些注意力系数是在训练过程中学习到的,可用于权衡每个节点的特征对图形表示的贡献。利用 GAT 生成的输出的扩展路径为精确分割铺平了道路。数据集包括 606 幅显微图像,主要分为不同的细胞类型(星形胶质细胞、皮层和 SHSY5Y)。通过实施我们提出的 U-GAT 算法,与 CNN、U-Net、SegResNet、SegNet VGG16 和 GAT 基准算法相比,我们获得了 86.5% 的最高准确率和 0.719 的 F1 分数。由于更准确的深度学习方法对于分割神经元图像等复杂图像至关重要,因此该方法有助于生物技术行业的研究人员开发新型药物。
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引用次数: 0
An investigation of the COVID-19 impact on liver cancer using exploratory and predictive analytics 利用探索性和预测性分析方法研究 COVID-19 对肝癌的影响
Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100309
Victor Chang, Rameshwari Mukeshkumar Patel, Meghana Ashok Ganatra, Qianwen Ariel Xu

This study presents the influence of COVID-19 and the pandemic on individuals diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, the two most common types of primary liver cancer. The study compares the effects before and after the pandemic on these patients. Additionally, it endeavors to predict the likelihood of survival for liver cancer patients. Our research will employ various methodologies to investigate this. Exploratory data analysis techniques are utilized, including univariate analysis, correlation analysis, bivariate analysis, chi-square testing, and T-sample testing. For predictive analytics, machine learning algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Classification And Regression Tree (CART), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Support Vector Machines (SVMs) will be applied. For our outputs, Logistic Regression and SVMs emerged as top-performing algorithms, boasting a remarkable accuracy rate of 93%. The study reveals that COVID-19 affected all age groups similarly. However, a gender-based difference was observed, indicating that males faced a higher risk of both cancer and mortality. Furthermore, the study found that variables such as year, month, bleeding, cirrhosis, and previously known cirrhosis did not significantly influence patient survival.

本研究介绍了 COVID-19 和大流行对肝细胞癌和肝内胆管癌(两种最常见的原发性肝癌)患者的影响。研究比较了大流行前后对这些患者的影响。此外,研究还将努力预测肝癌患者的生存可能性。我们的研究将采用多种方法对此进行调查。我们将采用探索性数据分析技术,包括单变量分析法、相关分析法、双变量分析法、卡方检验法和 T 样本检验法。在预测分析方面,将采用逻辑回归、决策树、分类回归树(CART)、人工神经网络(ANN)、K-近邻(KNN)和支持向量机(SVM)等机器学习算法。在我们的结果中,逻辑回归和 SVM 是表现最好的算法,准确率高达 93%。研究显示,COVID-19 对所有年龄组的影响相似。不过,我们观察到了性别差异,这表明男性患癌症和死亡的风险都更高。此外,研究还发现,年、月、出血、肝硬化和先前已知的肝硬化等变量对患者的存活率没有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
A computational fractional order model for optimal control of wearable healthcare monitoring devices for maternal health 用于产妇健康可穿戴式医疗保健监测设备优化控制的计算分数阶模型
Pub Date : 2024-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.health.2024.100308
Onuora Ogechukwu Nneka , Kennedy Chinedu Okafor , Christopher A. Nwabueze , Chimaihe B Mbachu , J.P. Iloh , Titus Ifeanyi Chinebu , Bamidele Adebisi , Okoronkwo Chukwunenye Anthony

The post-COVID-19 landscape has propelled the global telemedicine sector to a projected valuation of USD 91.2 billion by 2022, with a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% from 2023 to 2030. This paper introduces an analytical wearable healthcare monitoring device (WHMD) designed for the timely detection and seamless transmission of crucial health vitals to telemedical cloud agents. The fractional order modeling approach is employed to delineate the efficacy of the WHMD in pregnancy-related contexts. The Caputo fractional calculus framework is harnessed to show the device potential in capturing and communicating vital health data to medical experts precisely at the cloud layer. Our formulation establishes the fractional order model's positivity, existence, and uniqueness, substantiating its mathematical validity. The investigation comprises two major equilibrium points: the disease-free equilibrium and the equilibrium accounting for disease presence, both interconnected with the WHMD. The paper explores the impact of integrating the WHMD during pregnancy cycles. Analytical findings show that the basic reproduction number remains below unity, showing the WHMD efficacy in mitigating health complications. Furthermore, the fractional multi-stage differential transform method (FMSDTM) facilitates optimal control scenarios involving WHMD utilisation among pregnant patients. The proposed approach exhibits robustness and conclusively elucidates the dynamic potential of WHMD in supporting maternal health and disease control throughout pregnancy. This paper significantly contributes to the evolving landscape of analytical wearable healthcare research, highlighting the critical role of WHMDs in safeguarding maternal well-being and mitigating disease risks in edge reconfigurable health architectures.

后 COVID-19 时代推动全球远程医疗行业发展,预计到 2022 年估值将达到 912 亿美元,2023-2030 年复合年增长率 (CAGR) 将达到 18.6%。本文介绍了一种分析型可穿戴医疗保健监测设备(WHMD),该设备旨在及时发现并向远程医疗云代理无缝传输重要的健康状况。本文采用分数阶建模方法来描述该设备在与怀孕相关的情况下的功效。我们利用卡普托分数微积分框架,展示了该设备在捕捉重要健康数据并将其精确传输给云层医疗专家方面的潜力。我们的表述确定了分数阶模型的实在性、存在性和唯一性,从而证实了其数学有效性。研究包括两个主要的平衡点:无疾病平衡点和考虑疾病存在的平衡点,两者都与 WHMD 相互关联。本文探讨了在妊娠周期中纳入 WHMD 的影响。分析结果表明,基本繁殖数仍低于 1,显示了 WHMD 在缓解健康并发症方面的功效。此外,分式多级微分变换法(FMSDTM)有助于对怀孕患者使用 WHMD 的情况进行优化控制。所提出的方法具有稳健性,并最终阐明了 WHMD 在整个孕期支持孕产妇健康和疾病控制方面的动态潜力。本文对不断发展的分析性可穿戴医疗保健研究做出了重要贡献,强调了 WHMD 在保障孕产妇健康和降低边缘可重构医疗架构中的疾病风险方面的关键作用。
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Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
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