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Storm surge prediction: present status and future challenges 风暴潮预测:现状与未来挑战
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.09.002
Jiachun Li , Bingchuan Nie

In the current review, the most pessimistic events of the globe in history are addressed when we present severe impacts caused by storm surges. During previous decades, great progresses in storm surge modeling have been made. As a result, people have developed a number of numerical software such as SPLASH, SLOSH etc. and implemented routine operational forecast by virtue of powerful supercomputers with the help of meteorological satellites and sensors as verification tools. However, storm surge as a killer from the sea is still threatening human being and exerting enormous impacts on human society due to economic growth, population increase and fast urbanization. To mitigate the effects of storm surge hazards, integrated research on disaster risk (IRDR) as an ICSU program is put on agenda. The most challenging issues concerned such as abrupt variation in TC’s track and intensity, comprehensive study on the consequences of storm surge and the effects of climate change on risk estimation are emphasized. In addition, it is of paramount importance for coastal developing countries to set up forecast and warning system and reduce vulnerability of affected areas.

在当前的审查中,当我们提出风暴潮造成的严重影响时,我们讨论了全球历史上最悲观的事件。在过去的几十年里,风暴潮模拟取得了很大的进展。因此,人们开发了一些数值软件,如SPLASH、SLOSH等,并借助强大的超级计算机,借助气象卫星和传感器作为验证工具,实现了常规的业务预报。然而,由于经济的增长、人口的增加和城市化的快速发展,风暴潮作为来自海洋的杀手,仍然威胁着人类,对人类社会产生着巨大的影响。为了减轻风暴潮灾害的影响,灾害风险综合研究(IRDR)作为ICSU的一个项目被提上日程。强调了热带气旋路径和强度的突变、风暴潮后果的综合研究以及气候变化对风险评估的影响等最具挑战性的问题。此外,沿海发展中国家建立预报预警系统,降低受灾地区的脆弱性至关重要。
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引用次数: 16
Storm surge disaster risk assessment and zoning, taking Cangnan County for instance 风暴潮灾害风险评估与区划,以苍南县为例
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.09.014
Tao Li , Cifu Fu , Fangdong Wang , Jianxi Dong

The storm surge and inundation simulation using the shallow-water circulation model ADCIRC has been implemented for the Cangnan County of Zhejiang Province. The main purpose is using this model to estimate the coastal storm surge disaster risk and zoning. The hindcast experiments indicate that the model system has good performance in capturing the changes of storm surge caused by tropical cyclones. Compared to the observations, the average deviation of the peak value of water level is less than 10%. We used the hypothetical tropical cyclones and the 19a of June-October mean high astronomical tide, and combined the geographic elevation and land description to assess the inundation hazard. It shows that the inundation hazard is high in the coastal region of Jinxiang Town and the south bank area of Aojiang River, but is relatively low in the Jiangnan Inning and the high altitude inland areas. The risk assessment that integrates the inundation hazard and the structure vulnerability is also conducted to zone the county into the different storm surge disaster risk levels, which can give support to the effective prevention of various tropical cyclone storm surge in the future.

利用ADCIRC浅水环流模式对浙江省苍南县进行了风暴潮和洪水模拟。主要目的是利用该模型对沿海风暴潮灾害风险进行估计和分区。后播实验表明,该模式系统对热带气旋引起的风暴潮变化有较好的捕捉效果。与观测值相比,水位峰值的平均偏差小于10%。采用假设的热带气旋和6 - 10月平均天文高潮19a,结合地理高程和土地描述对洪涝灾害进行评价。结果表明:金乡镇沿海地区和鳌江南岸地区的淹没危险性较高,江南地区和高海拔内陆地区的淹没危险性较低;并对洪涝灾害和结构脆弱性进行综合风险评估,将该县划分为不同的风暴潮灾害风险等级,为今后有效防范各类热带气旋风暴潮提供支持。
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引用次数: 3
The recent development of storm surge modeling in Taiwan 台湾风暴潮模拟的最新发展
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.09.011
Tso-Ren Wu , Yu-Lin Tsai , Chuen-Teyr Terng

Storm surge is an important issue in Taiwan because our country is located at the typhoon prone area and surrounded by the Pacific Ocean and the Taiwan Strait. People live at coastal areas need to pay attention to the damages of storm surge, especially the inundation during typhoon’s duration. Therefore, the accurate and highly efficient operational storm surge system is required to provide not only the information of water elevations but also potential inundation areas. The large computational domain should be adopted to cover the complete typhoon life-cycle, and the atmospheric model and tidal model are expected to be coupled inside. COMCOT-SS (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model – Storm Surge) fulfils above-mentioned requirements and solves nonlinear shallow water equations with multi-scale wave propagations and inundation calculation. In this study, 2015 category-5 Typhoon Soulik is chosen for model validation, and the results are in a good agreement with observed data. Coastal inundation induced by Typhoon Soulik is also simulated to study the variation of storm tides and tides. By a series of strict validations and operational experiments, COMCOT storm surge operational system has been the official forecasting model at Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan since July, 2016, and has successfully predicted the storm surges induced by 2016 category-5 Typhoon Nepartak.

由于我国地处台风多发区,又被太平洋和台湾海峡所包围,风暴潮是台湾的一个重要问题。生活在沿海地区的人们需要关注风暴潮的危害,特别是台风持续期间的淹没。因此,准确高效的风暴潮系统不仅需要提供水位信息,还需要提供潜在淹没区域信息。应采用大计算域覆盖整个台风生命周期,并期望大气模式和潮汐模式在其中耦合。COMCOT-SS (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge)满足上述要求,通过多尺度波浪传播和淹没计算来求解非线性浅水方程。本研究选取2015年5级台风苏力克进行模型验证,结果与观测数据吻合较好。模拟了台风苏力引起的沿海淹没,研究了风暴潮和潮汐的变化。COMCOT风暴潮预报系统经过一系列严格的验证和操作实验,自2016年7月起成为台湾中央气象局官方风暴潮预报模式,成功预报了2016年5级台风“尼伯特”引发的风暴潮。
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引用次数: 4
Mechanics of Materials Creation: Nanotubes, Graphene, Carbyne, Borophenes 材料创造的力学:纳米管、石墨烯、碳炔、硼罗芬
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.03.032
John M. Alred, Nitant Gupta, Mingjie Liu, Zhuhua Zhang, Boris I. Yakobson

In this article, we provide brief overview of how mechanics and computations play a role in understanding materials growth, creating new low-dimensional materials and exploring structural defects. First, we introduce a concept of screw dislocation for describing carbon nanotube growth and derive a kinetic relationship between growth rate and chiral angle. Deeper analysis of the subtle balance between the kinetic and thermodynamic views reveals sharply peaked distribution of near-armchair nanotubes, explaining puzzling (n, n-1) types observed experimentally. A combination of ab initio calculations and Monte Carlo models further explains the low symmetry shapes of graphene on substrates. Being monoatomic chains of carbon, carbynes are shown to be strong yet flexible, and undergo metal-semiconductor transition under tension, offering promising innovations for future nanotechnology. We then reveal how metal substrates could facilitate the formation of boron monolayers whose bulk counterparts are non-layered and lower in energy. Further remarks are given to High Burger's vector graphene defects called D-loops and interfaces in hybrid graphene-BN materials, both with significant out-of plane distortion and impact on the mechanical properties. All of these computationally modeled systems have significant implications for the future use of these nanomaterials.

在本文中,我们简要概述了力学和计算如何在理解材料生长,创造新的低维材料和探索结构缺陷方面发挥作用。首先,我们引入螺旋位错的概念来描述碳纳米管的生长,并推导出生长速率与手性角之间的动力学关系。对动力学和热力学观点之间微妙平衡的深入分析揭示了近扶手椅型纳米管的急剧峰值分布,解释了实验观察到的令人困惑的(n, n-1)类型。从头计算和蒙特卡罗模型的结合进一步解释了石墨烯在衬底上的低对称性形状。作为单原子碳链,碳炔被证明是坚固而灵活的,并且在张力下经历金属半导体转变,为未来的纳米技术提供了有希望的创新。然后,我们揭示了金属衬底如何促进硼单层的形成,而硼单层的体积对应物是非层状的,能量较低。进一步讨论了高伯格矢量石墨烯缺陷,称为d环和混合石墨烯- bn材料中的界面,两者都具有显着的面外扭曲和对机械性能的影响。所有这些计算模拟系统对这些纳米材料的未来使用具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 4
Modeling of Biofilm Growth on Ager Substrate Using the Extended Finite Element Method 用扩展有限元法模拟Ager基质上生物膜的生长
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.06.003
Xianlong Zhang , Xiaoling Wang , Qingping Sun

Various types of bacterial form adhesive aggregates on surfaces known as biofilms, which are of interest to researchers in a great variety of fields. In this paper, a continuum model based on diffusion-reaction is proposed and extended finite element method (XFEM) coupled to level set is employed to simulate the biofilm growth on ager substrate. Numerical results show the quantitative relationship between colony morphology and nutrient deletion. Comparing with experiment observation, we approve that diffusion limited regime is more appropriate than growth limited regime to describe Bacillus subtilis biofilm growth on MSgg ager substrate. Our model can be extended to investigate detailed biological process in biofilm growth such as cell subdivision and osmotic pressure induced transportation.

各种类型的细菌在被称为生物膜的表面形成粘附聚集体,这是许多领域研究人员感兴趣的。本文提出了一种基于扩散-反应的连续介质模型,并将扩展有限元法(XFEM)与水平集相结合,模拟了生物膜在ager基质上的生长过程。数值结果显示了菌落形态与营养缺失之间的定量关系。通过实验观察,我们认为扩散限制模式比生长限制模式更适合描述枯草芽孢杆菌生物膜在MSgg - ager基质上的生长。我们的模型可以扩展到研究生物膜生长的详细生物学过程,如细胞细分和渗透压诱导的运输。
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引用次数: 2
Methods for Controlling Particle Size in Corrosion-resistant Steel Powders 控制耐蚀钢粉末粒度的方法
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.06.013
T. Tarasova, A. Filatova

This work considers the possibilities of using static analysis and scanning electron microscopy techniques to determine the properties of disperse materials, i.e. corrosion resistant steel grades 12X18N9T and 20X13, taken into account in the selective laser melting technique.

这项工作考虑了使用静态分析和扫描电子显微镜技术来确定分散材料性能的可能性,即在选择性激光熔化技术中考虑到耐腐蚀钢牌号12X18N9T和20X13。
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引用次数: 2
Dynamics of Cutting Near Double Hopf Bifurcation 双Hopf分岔附近的切割动力学
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.08.016
Tamás G. Molnár , Zoltán Dombóvári , Tamás Insperger , Gábor Stépán

Bifurcation analysis of the orthogonal cutting model with cutting force nonlinearity is presented with special attention to double Hopf bifurcations. The normal form of the system in the vicinity of the double Hopf point is derived analytically by means of center manifold reduction. The dynamics is restricted to a four-dimensional center manifold, and the long-term behavior is illustrated on simplified phase portraits in two dimensions. The topology of the phase portraits reveal the coexistence of periodic and quasi-periodic solutions, which are computed by approximate analytical formulas.

对具有切削力非线性的正交切削模型进行了分岔分析,重点研究了双Hopf分岔问题。利用中心流形约简的方法,导出了系统在双Hopf点附近的范式。动力学被限制在一个四维中心流形中,并在二维的简化相位图上说明了长期行为。相位图的拓扑结构揭示了周期解和准周期解的共存,这些解由近似解析公式计算。
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引用次数: 3
Excitation-induced Delayed Onset of Epileptic Poly-spike and Wave Discharges 兴奋诱导的迟发性癫痫性多峰和波放电
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.08.020
Suyu Liu, Qingyun Wang

In this paper we employ an improved thalamo-cortical model to uncover the potential generation mechanisms of pS-WD patterns by means of bursting oscillation's analysis approaches in the process of seizures generation at both fast and slow timescales. Interestingly, it is found that the onset of epileptic discharges can be delayed as an increase of excitatory regulating function of the thalamic relay neuronal population on cortical PY. The obtained numerical results show that the initiation of absence seizures arises from the thalamus and the termination of them in the cortex.

本文采用改进的丘脑-皮层模型,通过爆发振荡的分析方法,在快、慢两个时间尺度上揭示了癫痫发作过程中pS-WD模式的潜在产生机制。有趣的是,我们发现丘脑中继神经元群对皮质PY的兴奋性调节功能的增加可以延迟癫痫放电的发生。得到的数值结果表明,失神性癫痫发作的起始点在丘脑,结束点在皮层。
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引用次数: 2
Biomechanical Study of the Vestibular System of the Inner Ear Using a Numerical Method 用数值方法研究内耳前庭系统的生物力学
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.08.040
Carla F. Santos , Jorge Belinha , Fernanda Gentil , Marco Parente , Bruno Areias , Renato Natal Jorge

The inner ear has two main parts, the cochlea, dedicated to hearing, and the vestibular system, dedicated to balance. Dizziness and vertigo are the main symptoms related to vestibular disorders, which commonly affects older people. In order to eliminate these symptoms a vestibular rehabilitation is performed; this consists in a range of movements of the head, known as maneuvers, performed by a clinical professional. This procedure does not always work as expected. The aim of this work is to contribute to a better understanding on how the vestibular system works. This knowledge will help in the development of new techniques that will facilitate a more efficient rehabilitation. In order to achieve that goal, a three-dimensional numerical model of the vestibular system, containing the fluids which promote the body balance, was constructed. The vestibular components will be discretized using the finite element method and the fluid flow will be analyzed using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics.

The results obtained with the numerical model of the semicircular canal built to study the rehabilitation process are presented and compared with other authors. The solution achieved is similar with literature.

内耳有两个主要部分,专门用于听力的耳蜗和专门用于平衡的前庭系统。头晕和眩晕是与前庭疾病相关的主要症状,通常影响老年人。为了消除这些症状,进行前庭康复治疗;这包括一系列的头部运动,被称为机动,由临床专业人员执行。这个过程并不总是如预期的那样有效。这项工作的目的是有助于更好地了解前庭系统是如何工作的。这些知识将有助于开发新技术,以促进更有效的康复。为了实现这一目标,建立了一个前庭系统的三维数值模型,其中包含促进身体平衡的液体。前庭组件将采用有限元方法进行离散化,流体流动将采用光滑粒子流体力学进行分析。本文介绍了为研究修复过程而建立的半规管数值模型所得到的结果,并与其他作者进行了比较。实现的解决方案与文献类似。
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引用次数: 9
Storm waves during Typhoon Cobra (Halsey’s typhoon) in December 1944 1944年12月,台风眼镜蛇(哈尔西台风)期间的风暴波
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.piutam.2017.09.007
Byung Ho Choi , Kyeong Ok Kim , Jin-Hee Yuk

A coupled-process based tide-wave-surge model has been used to simulate Typhoon Cobra in December 14-19, 1944, also best known as the Typhoons of 1944 or Halsey’s Typhoon. The typhoon information of location and direction that were provided to admiral Halsey was not accurate and the third fleet operating 480 km east of Luzon in the Philippine Sea sailed into the center of the typhoon. As a result, the ship was wrecked by strong winds of 87 kt, lowest air pressure of 907 hPa and very high seas. This typhoon resulted in the establishment of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii. The model was constructed with fine-mesh finite element model covering the whole South China Sea with inclusion of the Java Sea and adjacent marginal seas and the Philippine Sea. Approximate mesh sizes in the region of interest were formulated as a few tens of meters and the bathymetry of the tidal flat area was described, thus enabling a detailed representation of component in tidal characteristics in the modelled tidal regime. Typhoon and meteorological forcing inputs for the period 13-20, December 1944 are prepared via blending of ECMWF-20C as background meteorological conditions and Holland type vortex typhoon fields. The water elevation determined from the estimation of the Japanese National Astronomical Observatory (NAOTIDE) database was imposed at the tidal open boundary. Time-series outputs of storm waves are produced showing maximum significant wave heights of 12-15 m along the typhoon track.

本文采用一种基于耦合过程的潮-浪涌模式对1944年12月14日至19日的台风眼镜蛇(又称1944年台风)进行了模拟。向哈尔西海军上将提供的台风位置和方向信息不准确,在菲律宾海吕宋岛以东480公里的第三舰队驶入台风中心。结果,由于87节的强风、907 hPa的最低气压和非常高的海面,船被撞毁。这次台风导致在夏威夷建立了联合台风预警中心(JTWC)。模型采用覆盖整个南海的细网格有限元模型,包括爪哇海及其邻近边缘海和菲律宾海。感兴趣区域的大致网格尺寸被表述为几十米,并描述了潮滩区域的水深,从而能够在模拟潮汐状态中详细表示潮汐特征的组成部分。以ECMWF-20C为背景气象条件和荷兰型涡台风场为基础,编制1944年12月13-20日的台风和气象强迫输入。根据日本国家天文台(NAOTIDE)数据库的估计确定的水位高度在潮汐开放边界处施加。风暴波的时间序列输出显示沿台风路径的最大有效波高为12-15米。
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引用次数: 0
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Procedia IUTAM
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