首页 > 最新文献

The World economy最新文献

英文 中文
Globalisation and carbon dioxide emissions inequality in OECD countries 经合组织国家的全球化和二氧化碳排放不平等
Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13542
Jianchun Fang, Giray Gozgor, Mantu Kumar Mahalik, Gupteswar Patel, Xueyin Song
Economic growth has been crucial in contributing to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the Industrial Revolution, and it affects CO2 emissions heterogeneously with different income levels. Therefore, studying the role of economic growth on inequality in carbon emissions is imperative. This paper analyses the determinants of CO2 emissions inequality in the panel dataset of 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1990 to 2019. Age dependency, globalisation, and institutional quality reduce CO2 inequality in the OECD economies. However, gross domestic product per capita increases CO2 inequality. The results are robust to utilise different panel data estimation techniques. This paper provides the first evidence in the literature of determinants of CO2 inequality across the OECD countries. It is suggested that governments in the OECD economies offer a blueprint for a sustainable society of green economic growth. Other potential policy implications are also discussed.
自工业革命以来,经济增长对二氧化碳排放的贡献至关重要,不同收入水平对二氧化碳排放的影响也不尽相同。因此,研究经济增长对碳排放不平等的作用势在必行。本文分析了1990年至2019年37个经济合作与发展组织(OECD)国家面板数据集中二氧化碳排放不平等的决定因素。年龄依赖性、全球化和制度质量降低了经合组织经济体的二氧化碳不平等。然而,人均国内生产总值增加了二氧化碳的不平等。使用不同的面板数据估计技术,结果具有鲁棒性。本文提供了OECD国家二氧化碳不平等决定因素文献中的第一个证据。建议经合组织经济体的政府为绿色经济增长的可持续社会提供蓝图。本文还讨论了其他潜在的政策影响。
{"title":"Globalisation and carbon dioxide emissions inequality in OECD countries","authors":"Jianchun Fang, Giray Gozgor, Mantu Kumar Mahalik, Gupteswar Patel, Xueyin Song","doi":"10.1111/twec.13542","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13542","url":null,"abstract":"Economic growth has been crucial in contributing to carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from the Industrial Revolution, and it affects CO<sub>2</sub> emissions heterogeneously with different income levels. Therefore, studying the role of economic growth on inequality in carbon emissions is imperative. This paper analyses the determinants of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions inequality in the panel dataset of 37 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1990 to 2019. Age dependency, globalisation, and institutional quality reduce CO<sub>2</sub> inequality in the OECD economies. However, gross domestic product per capita increases CO<sub>2</sub> inequality. The results are robust to utilise different panel data estimation techniques. This paper provides the first evidence in the literature of determinants of CO<sub>2</sub> inequality across the OECD countries. It is suggested that governments in the OECD economies offer a blueprint for a sustainable society of green economic growth. Other potential policy implications are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"85 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How EU membership affects foreign direct investment: Differences between EU15 and CEE countries 欧盟成员国身份如何影响外国直接投资:欧盟15国与中东欧国家的差异
Pub Date : 2023-11-28 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13541
Bettina Meinhart
This article examines the impact of membership in the European Union (EU) on foreign direct investments (FDI). In contrast to previous studies, the overall effect of EU membership is disaggregated by countries that joined the EU before 2004 (EU15) and those that joined after 2004 [Central and Eastern European (CEE)]. This disaggregation is motivated by differences between the two groups in terms of their historical background, GDP levels and motives for FDI. Furthermore, the effects of EU membership are estimated at the country level. Using a structural FDI gravity model and applying recent advances in the gravity estimation literature, it is shown that membership of the EU has a substantial positive impact on both inward and outward FDI stocks. In particular, there is considerable heterogeneity in the impact of EU membership, with EU15 countries experiencing mainly an increase in inward FDI, while CEE countries experience a surge in outward FDI.
本文考察了欧盟成员国身份对外国直接投资(FDI)的影响。与之前的研究相反,欧盟成员资格的总体影响按2004年之前加入欧盟的国家(EU15)和2004年之后加入欧盟的国家[中欧和东欧(CEE)]进行了分类。这两类国家在历史背景、国内生产总值水平和外国直接投资动机方面存在差异,是造成这种分化的原因。此外,欧盟成员资格的影响是在国家层面上估计的。使用结构性FDI重力模型并应用重力估计文献的最新进展,结果表明,欧盟成员国身份对流入和流出的FDI存量都有实质性的积极影响。特别是,欧盟成员国的影响存在相当大的异质性,欧盟15国主要是外来直接投资增加,而中东欧国家则是对外直接投资激增。
{"title":"How EU membership affects foreign direct investment: Differences between EU15 and CEE countries","authors":"Bettina Meinhart","doi":"10.1111/twec.13541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13541","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of membership in the European Union (EU) on foreign direct investments (FDI). In contrast to previous studies, the overall effect of EU membership is disaggregated by countries that joined the EU before 2004 (EU15) and those that joined after 2004 [Central and Eastern European (CEE)]. This disaggregation is motivated by differences between the two groups in terms of their historical background, GDP levels and motives for FDI. Furthermore, the effects of EU membership are estimated at the country level. Using a structural FDI gravity model and applying recent advances in the gravity estimation literature, it is shown that membership of the EU has a substantial positive impact on both inward and outward FDI stocks. In particular, there is considerable heterogeneity in the impact of EU membership, with EU15 countries experiencing mainly an increase in inward FDI, while CEE countries experience a surge in outward FDI.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Anti-dumping policy in Japan: From passive to active and self-disciplined anti-dumping actions 日本反倾销政策:从被动到主动和自律的反倾销行动
Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13540
Chisato Shibayama
While Japan's anti-dumping (AD) legislation has a long history, the use of AD policies in Japan was limited until the 2010s. This study analyses the evolution of Japan's AD policy over more than 100 years and its background across four periods: (1) from the AD Law's enactment in 1920 to the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT); (2) from the establishment of GATT to 1990, when no investigation or taxation was conducted; (3) from 1991 to 2008, a period of trial-and-error in AD procedures; and (4) the period after 2009 when the legal system and procedures were improved, and AD measures were being used more. In addition, we discuss the characteristics of industries that applied for AD. The reasons for the low number of AD measures in Japan vary by period and are driven by the circumstances of the prevailing times.
虽然日本的反倾销立法历史悠久,但直到2010年代,日本对反倾销政策的使用才受到限制。本研究分析了日本反倾销政策100多年来的演变及其背景,分为四个时期:(1)从1920年《反倾销法》制定到关贸总协定(GATT)建立;(二)自关贸总协定成立之日起至1990年,未进行调查或征税的;(3) 1991年至2008年是反倾销程序的试错期;(4) 2009年以后法律制度和程序不断完善,AD措施得到更多运用的时期。此外,我们还讨论了申请AD的行业的特点。日本AD措施数量少的原因因时期而异,并受当时环境的驱动。
{"title":"Anti-dumping policy in Japan: From passive to active and self-disciplined anti-dumping actions","authors":"Chisato Shibayama","doi":"10.1111/twec.13540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13540","url":null,"abstract":"While Japan's anti-dumping (AD) legislation has a long history, the use of AD policies in Japan was limited until the 2010s. This study analyses the evolution of Japan's AD policy over more than 100 years and its background across four periods: (1) from the AD Law's enactment in 1920 to the establishment of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT); (2) from the establishment of GATT to 1990, when no investigation or taxation was conducted; (3) from 1991 to 2008, a period of trial-and-error in AD procedures; and (4) the period after 2009 when the legal system and procedures were improved, and AD measures were being used more. In addition, we discuss the characteristics of industries that applied for AD. The reasons for the low number of AD measures in Japan vary by period and are driven by the circumstances of the prevailing times.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"30 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
EU agriculture under an import stop for food and feed 欧盟农业受到食品和饲料进口禁令的限制
Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13537
Ferike Thom, Alexander Gocht, Harald Grethe
Recent disruptions in international trade have had significant impacts on consumers and producers worldwide and stemmed from various reasons. This study aims to identify key vulnerabilities in EU agriculture by examining an import stop on food and feed products. By conducting this stylised simulation using a global PE model (CAPRI), the authors analyse the adjustment mechanisms within the sector, investigate regional differences within the EU and test the model's ability to depict such a comprehensive scenario. The findings suggest that oilseeds are most affected by an import stop due to their high import share. Meat is indirectly impacted as it relies on imported soy for animal feed, whereas other products with high self‐sufficiency levels are hardly affected. In response to the import stop, EU production expands, increasing nitrogen surpluses, particularly in regions already facing critical levels. Meat production partially moves out of the EU, increasing global GHG emissions. EU consumers are negatively affected by increased prices, leading to an overall welfare decrease in the EU with exceptions for few member states. Alongside EU imports, exports decrease, affecting prices and welfare outside the EU. In the least developed countries, prices increase especially for products that are already consumed less than recommended.
最近国际贸易的中断对世界各地的消费者和生产者产生了重大影响,原因多种多样。本研究旨在通过检查食品和饲料产品的进口停止来确定欧盟农业的关键脆弱性。通过使用全球PE模型(CAPRI)进行这种程式化的模拟,作者分析了该部门内部的调整机制,调查了欧盟内部的区域差异,并测试了模型描述这种全面情景的能力。研究结果表明,油籽受进口停止影响最大,因为它们的进口份额很高。由于肉类依赖进口大豆作为动物饲料,因此受到间接影响,而其他自给自足水平较高的产品几乎没有受到影响。作为对进口停止的回应,欧盟扩大了产量,增加了氮的过剩,特别是在已经面临临界水平的地区。肉类生产部分迁出欧盟,增加了全球温室气体排放。欧盟消费者受到价格上涨的负面影响,导致欧盟整体福利下降,少数成员国例外。随着欧盟进口的减少,出口也会减少,从而影响到欧盟以外地区的价格和福利。在最不发达国家,价格上涨,特别是那些消费已经少于建议的产品。
{"title":"EU agriculture under an import stop for food and feed","authors":"Ferike Thom, Alexander Gocht, Harald Grethe","doi":"10.1111/twec.13537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13537","url":null,"abstract":"Recent disruptions in international trade have had significant impacts on consumers and producers worldwide and stemmed from various reasons. This study aims to identify key vulnerabilities in EU agriculture by examining an import stop on food and feed products. By conducting this stylised simulation using a global PE model (CAPRI), the authors analyse the adjustment mechanisms within the sector, investigate regional differences within the EU and test the model's ability to depict such a comprehensive scenario. The findings suggest that oilseeds are most affected by an import stop due to their high import share. Meat is indirectly impacted as it relies on imported soy for animal feed, whereas other products with high self‐sufficiency levels are hardly affected. In response to the import stop, EU production expands, increasing nitrogen surpluses, particularly in regions already facing critical levels. Meat production partially moves out of the EU, increasing global GHG emissions. EU consumers are negatively affected by increased prices, leading to an overall welfare decrease in the EU with exceptions for few member states. Alongside EU imports, exports decrease, affecting prices and welfare outside the EU. In the least developed countries, prices increase especially for products that are already consumed less than recommended.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"86 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What's the influence of input's variation? Estimating the input elasticity in the global value chain 输入变量的影响是什么?全球价值链投入弹性的估算
Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13530
Xian-nan Cheng, Shuhui Wen, Nuobing Fan, Yuwei Liu, Yujing Wang
This article presents a comprehensive framework for assessing the influence of input variation during the period of stagnant expansion of the global value chain (GVC) by incorporating input elasticity. Each import sector is treated as a complete input demand system with a stochastic preference for input in the framework of Ghosh Inverse, and the input elasticity is employed to quantify the input variation based on the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. New empirical evidence covering three major regional value chains (RVCs) and the time span from 2010 to 2020 reveals that increasing input elasticity leads to additional output for most countries, except those within the North American RVC. Additionally, this article also discusses how external determinants have diverse extents influence to input elasticity, while the substitution effect among homogenous input in the specific input demand system may decide their input's competitiveness.
本文提出了一个综合框架,通过纳入投入弹性来评估全球价值链停滞扩张时期投入变化的影响。在Ghosh逆的框架下,将各进口部门视为一个具有随机输入偏好的完整输入需求系统,并基于二次几乎理想需求系统(QUAIDS)模型,利用输入弹性量化输入变化。新的经验证据涵盖了三个主要的区域价值链(RVC)和2010年至2020年的时间跨度,表明投入弹性的增加会导致大多数国家的产出增加,除了北美区域价值链内的国家。此外,本文还讨论了外部决定因素对投入弹性的不同程度影响,而在特定投入需求系统中,同质投入之间的替代效应可能决定其投入的竞争力。
{"title":"What's the influence of input's variation? Estimating the input elasticity in the global value chain","authors":"Xian-nan Cheng, Shuhui Wen, Nuobing Fan, Yuwei Liu, Yujing Wang","doi":"10.1111/twec.13530","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13530","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a comprehensive framework for assessing the influence of input variation during the period of stagnant expansion of the global value chain (GVC) by incorporating input elasticity. Each import sector is treated as a complete input demand system with a stochastic preference for input in the framework of Ghosh Inverse, and the input elasticity is employed to quantify the input variation based on the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) model. New empirical evidence covering three major regional value chains (RVCs) and the time span from 2010 to 2020 reveals that increasing input elasticity leads to additional output for most countries, except those within the North American RVC. Additionally, this article also discusses how external determinants have diverse extents influence to input elasticity, while the substitution effect among homogenous input in the specific input demand system may decide their input's competitiveness.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"86 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
African economic integration and trade 非洲经济一体化和贸易
Pub Date : 2023-11-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13538
Marie M. Stack, Emmanuel B. Amissah, Martin Bliss
Economic integration ranks as one of the leading development strategies in Africa. The newly created African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) linking three major regional blocks offer a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using a structural gravity model of bilateral manufacturing trade between the African Union member states and all countries in the world, the trade effects of African economic integration agreements (EIAs) are assessed. The findings suggest that economic integration, in aggregate, enhances total African exports. Disaggregating the effects by type of agreement and by subgroups of countries, free trade agreements (FTAs) and partial scope agreements (PSAs) are found to increase extra-African exports, but have no effects on intra-African exports. A positive and significant effect on intra-African exports is introduced when the FTA dummy is combined with AfCFTA in contrast to a neutral effect stemming from the joint FTA-TFTA dummy. The findings suggest that a continent-wide FTA yields greater benefits when compared with integrating the subregions.
经济一体化是非洲的主要发展战略之一。新成立的非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)和拟议中的连接三大区域集团的三方自由贸易区(TFTA)为研究贸易政策效应提供了新的动力。利用非盟成员国与世界各国双边制造业贸易的结构引力模型,对非洲经济一体化协定的贸易效应进行了评估。研究结果表明,经济一体化总体上提高了非洲的出口总额。按协定类型和国家分组分列的影响发现,自由贸易协定和部分范围协定增加了非洲以外的出口,但对非洲内部的出口没有影响。当自由贸易协定与非洲自由贸易区结合使用时,对非洲内部出口产生了积极而显著的影响,而自由贸易协定- tfta联合使用则产生了中性影响。研究结果表明,与整合次区域相比,大陆范围内的自由贸易协定产生更大的好处。
{"title":"African economic integration and trade","authors":"Marie M. Stack, Emmanuel B. Amissah, Martin Bliss","doi":"10.1111/twec.13538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13538","url":null,"abstract":"Economic integration ranks as one of the leading development strategies in Africa. The newly created African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the proposed Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) linking three major regional blocks offer a new impetus to studying trade policy effects. Using a structural gravity model of bilateral manufacturing trade between the African Union member states and all countries in the world, the trade effects of African economic integration agreements (EIAs) are assessed. The findings suggest that economic integration, in aggregate, enhances total African exports. Disaggregating the effects by type of agreement and by subgroups of countries, free trade agreements (FTAs) and partial scope agreements (PSAs) are found to increase <i>extra</i>-African exports, but have no effects on <i>intra</i>-African exports. A positive and significant effect on intra-African exports is introduced when the FTA dummy is combined with AfCFTA in contrast to a neutral effect stemming from the joint FTA-TFTA dummy. The findings suggest that a continent-wide FTA yields greater benefits when compared with integrating the subregions.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"85 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138513263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Labour-saving automation: A direct measure of occupational exposure 节省劳力的自动化:职业性暴露的直接量度
Pub Date : 2023-11-24 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13522
Fabio Montobbio, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito, Marco Vivarelli
This article represents one of the first attempts at building a direct measure of occupational exposure to robotic labour-saving technologies. After identifying robotic and labour-saving robotic patents, the underlying 4-digit CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification) code definitions, together with O*NET (Occupational Information Network) task descriptions, are employed to detect functions and operations which are more directed to substituting the labour input and their exposure to labour-saving automation. This measure allows us to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their text similarity ranking. Occupational exposure by wage and employment dynamics in the United States is then studied, and complemented by investigating industry and geographical penetration rates.
这篇文章代表了建立一个直接衡量职业暴露于机器人劳动节省技术的第一次尝试之一。在确定机器人和节省劳动力的机器人专利之后,使用底层的4位数CPC(合作专利分类)代码定义以及O*NET(职业信息网络)任务描述来检测更直接用于替代劳动力投入的功能和操作,以及它们对节省劳动力的自动化的暴露。这个度量允许我们根据任务和职业的文本相似度排名获得细粒度的信息。然后研究美国工资和就业动态的职业暴露,并通过调查行业和地理渗透率进行补充。
{"title":"Labour-saving automation: A direct measure of occupational exposure","authors":"Fabio Montobbio, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito, Marco Vivarelli","doi":"10.1111/twec.13522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13522","url":null,"abstract":"This article represents one of the first attempts at building a <i>direct</i> measure of occupational exposure to robotic labour-saving technologies. After identifying robotic and labour-saving robotic patents, the underlying 4-digit CPC (Cooperative Patent Classification) code definitions, together with O*NET (Occupational Information Network) task descriptions, are employed to detect functions and operations which are more directed to substituting the labour input and their exposure to labour-saving automation. This measure allows us to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their text similarity ranking. Occupational exposure by wage and employment dynamics in the United States is then studied, and complemented by investigating industry and geographical penetration rates.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"73 4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138525331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of automation on labour market outcomes in emerging countries 自动化对新兴国家劳动力市场结果的影响
Pub Date : 2023-11-23 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13523
Luis R. Díaz Pavez, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso
The labour market effects of automation have gained significant attention from scholars and policymakers. Concerns about negative effects are important in emerging countries, where a rapid acceleration of robot adoption and an increasing involvement in global value chains have been observed in recent years, with the subsequent increase in exposure to foreign competition. This paper estimates the effect of local and foreign robots on labour market outcomes and labour shares using a panel dataset composed of 16 sectors and ten emerging countries from 2008 to 2014. The endogeneity of robots' adoption is addressed with an instrumental variables approach and using a shift-share index of exposure to foreign robots. The main results for all sectors show that foreign robot adoption has negatively affected employment in emerging countries. When exploring sectoral heterogeneity, we find that the foreign robots' negative effect on employment has occurred in many sectors, being more prominent in those with higher exposure to foreign robots. Moreover, we found small and negative inter-sectoral spillover effects of local robots on employment and wages. Finally, the results also show that the labour share is affected in some sectors of emerging countries by both the use of local and foreign robots.
自动化对劳动力市场的影响已经引起了学者和政策制定者的极大关注。对负面影响的担忧在新兴国家很重要,近年来,机器人的采用迅速加速,越来越多地参与全球价值链,随之而来的是外国竞争的增加。本文使用由16个行业和10个新兴国家组成的面板数据集,从2008年到2014年,估计了本地和外国机器人对劳动力市场结果和劳动力份额的影响。机器人采用的内生性是通过工具变量方法和使用外国机器人暴露的移位份额指数来解决的。所有部门的主要结果表明,外国机器人的采用对新兴国家的就业产生了负面影响。在探索行业异质性时,我们发现外国机器人对就业的负面影响已经发生在许多行业,在外国机器人曝光率较高的行业中更为突出。此外,我们发现本地机器人对就业和工资的部门间溢出效应很小且为负。最后,结果还表明,在新兴国家的一些部门,劳动力份额受到本地和外国机器人使用的影响。
{"title":"The impact of automation on labour market outcomes in emerging countries","authors":"Luis R. Díaz Pavez, Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso","doi":"10.1111/twec.13523","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13523","url":null,"abstract":"The labour market effects of automation have gained significant attention from scholars and policymakers. Concerns about negative effects are important in emerging countries, where a rapid acceleration of robot adoption and an increasing involvement in global value chains have been observed in recent years, with the subsequent increase in exposure to foreign competition. This paper estimates the effect of local and foreign robots on labour market outcomes and labour shares using a panel dataset composed of 16 sectors and ten emerging countries from 2008 to 2014. The endogeneity of robots' adoption is addressed with an instrumental variables approach and using a shift-share index of exposure to foreign robots. The main results for all sectors show that foreign robot adoption has negatively affected employment in emerging countries. When exploring sectoral heterogeneity, we find that the foreign robots' negative effect on employment has occurred in many sectors, being more prominent in those with higher exposure to foreign robots. Moreover, we found small and negative inter-sectoral spillover effects of local robots on employment and wages. Finally, the results also show that the labour share is affected in some sectors of emerging countries by both the use of local and foreign robots.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"3 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138525268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity 供应链的不确定性:风险和模糊性
Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13534
d'Artis Kancs
Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine)—that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies—this paper explores the supply chain robustness under risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. We aim to understand the potential consequences of deeply uncertain systemic events on the supply chain resilience and how does the information precision affect individual agents' choices and the chain-level preparedness to aggregate shocks. Augmenting a parsimonious supply chain model with uncertainty, we analyse the relationship between the upstream sourcing decisions and the supply chain survival probability. Both risk-averse and ambiguity-averse individually-optimising agents' upstream sourcing paths are efficient but can become vulnerable to aggregate shocks. In contrast, a chain-level coordination of downstream firm sourcing decisions can qualitatively improve the robustness of the entire supply chain compared to the individual decision-making baseline. Such a robust decision making ensures that in the presence of an aggregate shock—independently of its realisation—part of upstream suppliers will survive and the final goods' supply will be ensured even under the most demanding circumstances. Our results also indicate that an input source diversification extracts a cost in foregone efficiency.
最近经历的系统性冲击(COVID-19大流行和俄罗斯全面侵略乌克兰的战争)给我们的供应带来了新的不确定性,本文探讨了风险规避和模糊性规避下的供应链稳健性。我们的目标是了解深度不确定的系统性事件对供应链弹性的潜在影响,以及信息精度如何影响个体代理的选择和供应链层面对总体冲击的准备。建立了一个具有不确定性的简约供应链模型,分析了上游采购决策与供应链生存概率之间的关系。规避风险和规避模糊性的个体优化代理的上游采购路径都是有效的,但可能容易受到总体冲击的影响。相反,与单个决策基线相比,下游企业采购决策的链级协调可以从质量上提高整个供应链的稳健性。这样一个强有力的决策确保了在总体冲击存在的情况下,部分上游供应商将生存下来,即使在最苛刻的情况下,最终产品的供应也将得到保证。我们的研究结果还表明,投入来源多样化是以牺牲效率为代价的。
{"title":"Uncertainty of supply chains: Risk and ambiguity","authors":"d'Artis Kancs","doi":"10.1111/twec.13534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13534","url":null,"abstract":"Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine)—that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies—this paper explores the supply chain robustness under risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. We aim to understand the potential consequences of deeply uncertain systemic events on the supply chain resilience and how does the information precision affect individual agents' choices and the chain-level preparedness to aggregate shocks. Augmenting a parsimonious supply chain model with uncertainty, we analyse the relationship between the upstream sourcing decisions and the supply chain survival probability. Both risk-averse and ambiguity-averse individually-optimising agents' upstream sourcing paths are efficient but can become vulnerable to aggregate shocks. In contrast, a chain-level coordination of downstream firm sourcing decisions can qualitatively improve the robustness of the entire supply chain compared to the individual decision-making baseline. Such a robust decision making ensures that in the presence of an aggregate shock—independently of its realisation—part of upstream suppliers will survive and the final goods' supply will be ensured even under the most demanding circumstances. Our results also indicate that an input source diversification extracts a cost in foregone efficiency.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138525274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards meaningful transparency at the WTO: Reinforcing the trade policy review mechanism1 实现世贸组织有意义的透明度:加强贸易政策审查机制
Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13531
André Brotto Reigado, Simon J. Evenett, Fernando Martin
Abstract We characterise the operation of the World Trade Organization's Trade Policy Review as an exercise, albeit valuable, in performative transparency. We describe steps taken by the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade to augment this review process so as contribute towards meaningful transparency. Drawing from recent Trade Policy Reviews of G20 countries, specific examples are described where revealing evidence was provided that facilitates government assessment of their economies' exposure to the commercial policy practices of the reviewed nation. While a step forward, further steps are needed to attain meaningful transparency at the multilateral level that translates into better commercial policies.
摘要:我们将世界贸易组织贸易政策审查的运作描述为一种实践透明度,尽管有价值。我们介绍圣加仑贸易促进繁荣基金会为加强这一审查进程以促进有意义的透明度所采取的步骤。根据最近对G20国家的贸易政策评估,本文描述了具体的例子,其中提供了揭示性的证据,有助于政府评估其经济对被评估国家商业政策实践的影响。虽然这是向前迈出的一步,但还需要采取进一步的步骤,在多边一级实现有意义的透明度,从而转化为更好的商业政策。
{"title":"Towards meaningful transparency at the <scp>WTO</scp>: Reinforcing the trade policy review mechanism<sup>1</sup>","authors":"André Brotto Reigado, Simon J. Evenett, Fernando Martin","doi":"10.1111/twec.13531","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13531","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We characterise the operation of the World Trade Organization's Trade Policy Review as an exercise, albeit valuable, in performative transparency. We describe steps taken by the St. Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade to augment this review process so as contribute towards meaningful transparency. Drawing from recent Trade Policy Reviews of G20 countries, specific examples are described where revealing evidence was provided that facilitates government assessment of their economies' exposure to the commercial policy practices of the reviewed nation. While a step forward, further steps are needed to attain meaningful transparency at the multilateral level that translates into better commercial policies.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"21 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134953755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
The World economy
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1