David Greenaway, Richard Kneller, Chris Milner, Zhihong Yu
{"title":"The Corden Prize 2023","authors":"David Greenaway, Richard Kneller, Chris Milner, Zhihong Yu","doi":"10.1111/twec.13574","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13574","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140595938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses a sample of the biggest private Colombian exporting firms to propose and estimate a two‐step methodology for measuring international managerial skill and calculating its impact on international firm performance. The first step quantifies the managerial team's organisational capital contribution to rise firms' export proficiency through the average of a regression residuals group conformed by export unit value residuals for differentiated products (multiplying by −1 the price competition products' residuals) and export quantity residuals for homogeneous products. The second step results indicate that: (i) international managerial quality has a significant and robust positive effect on export value, (ii) better managers in the international market do not increase the number of products exported but upgrade export basket's quality and (iii) export value elasticity relative to international managerial quality is around 5 times larger than export value elasticity relative to exogenous global demand shocks.
{"title":"International managerial skill and big Colombian big exporting firms' performance, 2006–2014","authors":"Federico Alberto Merchán Álvarez","doi":"10.1111/twec.13573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13573","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses a sample of the biggest private Colombian exporting firms to propose and estimate a two‐step methodology for measuring international managerial skill and calculating its impact on international firm performance. The first step quantifies the managerial team's organisational capital contribution to rise firms' export proficiency through the average of a regression residuals group conformed by export unit value residuals for differentiated products (multiplying by −1 the price competition products' residuals) and export quantity residuals for homogeneous products. The second step results indicate that: (i) international managerial quality has a significant and robust positive effect on export value, (ii) better managers in the international market do not increase the number of products exported but upgrade export basket's quality and (iii) export value elasticity relative to international managerial quality is around 5 times larger than export value elasticity relative to exogenous global demand shocks.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140595943","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study delves into the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the bilateral semiconductor trade between Korea and China. We present compelling evidence emphasising the significant role of exchange rate changes in Korea's semiconductor trade with China, affecting both short‐term and long‐term dynamics. Our analysis also reveals an asymmetrical effect of bilateral exchange rates on Korea's semiconductor trade with China. Specifically, we find that exchange rate asymmetries primarily manifest as a long‐term phenomenon in Korea's semiconductor exports to China. At the same time, they influence both short‐ and long‐term dynamics in Korea's semiconductor imports from China.
{"title":"Sensitivity of bilateral trade between Korea and China to exchange rate fluctuations: Insights from the semiconductor industry","authors":"Jungho Baek, Shanyu Piao, Soojoong Nam","doi":"10.1111/twec.13572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13572","url":null,"abstract":"This study delves into the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the bilateral semiconductor trade between Korea and China. We present compelling evidence emphasising the significant role of exchange rate changes in Korea's semiconductor trade with China, affecting both short‐term and long‐term dynamics. Our analysis also reveals an asymmetrical effect of bilateral exchange rates on Korea's semiconductor trade with China. Specifically, we find that exchange rate asymmetries primarily manifest as a long‐term phenomenon in Korea's semiconductor exports to China. At the same time, they influence both short‐ and long‐term dynamics in Korea's semiconductor imports from China.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"3 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140738615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate theoretically and empirically the effect of globalisation on informality. We use a model with two identical countries. Firms in each country choose to be formal or informal. Relative to an informal firm, a formal one produces a good of higher quality and pays social contributions on each worker. We determine the effect of globalisation on the size and the share of informality from the comparison of Autarky and Full Integration scenarios. We prove that for a given quality gap between formal and informal products, (i) globalisation increases the size of informality for low and high levels of social contributions but decreases it for intermediate ones; (ii) globalisation increases the share of informality for low social contributions and decreases it for high social contributions. The turning points depend increasingly on the quality gap. We then test these theoretical results by relying on the well‐informed data available for Latin‐American countries and using the economic sector as a proxy for the quality gap between a formal and an informal firm. Our empirical results are highly consistent with the theoretical model. In terms of policy implications, they show that globalisation may be used by the states together with modulated social contributions so as to reduce informality, but not for all economic sectors simultaneously.
{"title":"Globalisation and informality: The role of quality gap and social contributions","authors":"Rihab Bellakhal, Hend Ghazzai, Rim Lahmandi‐Ayed","doi":"10.1111/twec.13571","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13571","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate theoretically and empirically the effect of globalisation on informality. We use a model with two identical countries. Firms in each country choose to be formal or informal. Relative to an informal firm, a formal one produces a good of higher quality and pays social contributions on each worker. We determine the effect of globalisation on the size and the share of informality from the comparison of Autarky and Full Integration scenarios. We prove that for a given quality gap between formal and informal products, (i) globalisation increases the size of informality for low and high levels of social contributions but decreases it for intermediate ones; (ii) globalisation increases the share of informality for low social contributions and decreases it for high social contributions. The turning points depend increasingly on the quality gap. We then test these theoretical results by relying on the well‐informed data available for Latin‐American countries and using the economic sector as a proxy for the quality gap between a formal and an informal firm. Our empirical results are highly consistent with the theoretical model. In terms of policy implications, they show that globalisation may be used by the states together with modulated social contributions so as to reduce informality, but not for all economic sectors simultaneously.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140595937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kazunobu Hayakawa, F. Kimura, H. Mukunoki, S. Urata
In regional trade agreements (RTAs), member countries choose a common rule of origin (RoO) for each product. This study examines the factors that influence RoOs in four ASEAN‐plus‐one RTAs, which are agreements between ASEAN and four individual countries. One unique feature is that ASEAN as a whole negotiates with a plus‐one country, which may dilute the interests of individual ASEAN countries at large. Our findings are summarised as follows. First, the more restrictive RoOs are set in the products where plus‐one countries are less competitive against most ASEAN countries. Second, the more restrictive RoOs are likely to be imposed in products that plus‐one countries protect with higher most favoured nation tariffs. These two results reflect the bargaining power among a plus‐on country and ASEAN countries and indicate that plus‐one's preference influences RoOs more strongly. Third, we find contrasting results between intermediate and final products. RoOs are likely to be less restrictive in intermediate products and more restrictive in final products when plus‐one countries have higher export competitiveness or when the majority of ASEAN countries have higher MFN tariffs.
{"title":"Negotiating over the rules of origin in regional trade agreements in Asia","authors":"Kazunobu Hayakawa, F. Kimura, H. Mukunoki, S. Urata","doi":"10.1111/twec.13557","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13557","url":null,"abstract":"In regional trade agreements (RTAs), member countries choose a common rule of origin (RoO) for each product. This study examines the factors that influence RoOs in four ASEAN‐plus‐one RTAs, which are agreements between ASEAN and four individual countries. One unique feature is that ASEAN as a whole negotiates with a plus‐one country, which may dilute the interests of individual ASEAN countries at large. Our findings are summarised as follows. First, the more restrictive RoOs are set in the products where plus‐one countries are less competitive against most ASEAN countries. Second, the more restrictive RoOs are likely to be imposed in products that plus‐one countries protect with higher most favoured nation tariffs. These two results reflect the bargaining power among a plus‐on country and ASEAN countries and indicate that plus‐one's preference influences RoOs more strongly. Third, we find contrasting results between intermediate and final products. RoOs are likely to be less restrictive in intermediate products and more restrictive in final products when plus‐one countries have higher export competitiveness or when the majority of ASEAN countries have higher MFN tariffs.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":" 481","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140382954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The main aim of this paper is to explore economic inequality in ‘the Belt and Road’ region where the investigation of the economic status is important but remains underdeveloped. The application of night‐time satellite imagery in 2015 can effectively make up for the shortcomings of insufficient data at various scales, especially for developing countries. We explored inequality at a multi‐scale level using the Theil decomposition method. As a result, (1) night‐time light data can present economic development and assess inequality in ‘the Belt and Road’ region. (2) The between‐sub‐region inequality contributed most to disparity, while the between‐country inequality was the least. Night‐time light data in West Asia and Central and Eastern Europe was higher than that in other sub‐regions. Countries within Central, Southeast and West Asia exhibited high inequalities, indicating an obvious sub‐regional pattern. (3) Both positive and negative impacts of economic growth on inequality are observed, indicating that ‘the Belt and Road’ countries are in different stages of economic development. Nightlight satellite imagery can effectively monitor social‐economic development and will play an important role in the implementation of ‘the Belt and Road’ initiative and achieving the sustainable development goals.
{"title":"Evaluation of economic inequality in ‘the Belt and Road’ region – The application of night‐time satellite imagery","authors":"Zhen Yang, Lu Zhang, Chengkun Liu, Yu Chen, Rongwei Wu, Yaomin Zheng","doi":"10.1111/twec.13567","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13567","url":null,"abstract":"The main aim of this paper is to explore economic inequality in ‘the Belt and Road’ region where the investigation of the economic status is important but remains underdeveloped. The application of night‐time satellite imagery in 2015 can effectively make up for the shortcomings of insufficient data at various scales, especially for developing countries. We explored inequality at a multi‐scale level using the Theil decomposition method. As a result, (1) night‐time light data can present economic development and assess inequality in ‘the Belt and Road’ region. (2) The between‐sub‐region inequality contributed most to disparity, while the between‐country inequality was the least. Night‐time light data in West Asia and Central and Eastern Europe was higher than that in other sub‐regions. Countries within Central, Southeast and West Asia exhibited high inequalities, indicating an obvious sub‐regional pattern. (3) Both positive and negative impacts of economic growth on inequality are observed, indicating that ‘the Belt and Road’ countries are in different stages of economic development. Nightlight satellite imagery can effectively monitor social‐economic development and will play an important role in the implementation of ‘the Belt and Road’ initiative and achieving the sustainable development goals.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"11 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140230463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research shows that linguistic differences can influence the diffusion of technology and income between countries. I use a measure of language similarity known as the normalised Levenshtein distance to show that lexical distances closely track bilateral differences in the adoption intensities of key production technologies. This relationship holds for technologies in the transportation, information technology, steel, telecommunications and health sectors. Linguistic differences also result in larger bilateral gaps in per capita income. These results hold among higher but not low-income nations, likely because language affects technology transfer only once a threshold level of development is surpassed.
{"title":"Lexical distance and the diffusion of technology","authors":"Evan Wigton-Jones","doi":"10.1111/twec.13566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13566","url":null,"abstract":"This research shows that linguistic differences can influence the diffusion of technology and income between countries. I use a measure of language similarity known as the normalised Levenshtein distance to show that lexical distances closely track bilateral differences in the adoption intensities of key production technologies. This relationship holds for technologies in the transportation, information technology, steel, telecommunications and health sectors. Linguistic differences also result in larger bilateral gaps in per capita income. These results hold among higher but not low-income nations, likely because language affects technology transfer only once a threshold level of development is surpassed.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140107569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Export controls are crucial for protecting domestic economic interests globally. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding their impact on innovation performance. This study contributes to the literature by examining the effects of the U.S. entity list on the innovation performance of blacklisted Chinese firms and related industries, as well as the reverse shock on U.S. suppliers. Using propensity score matching and a difference‐in‐differences approach, we found that export controls stimulate technological innovation in blacklisted firms and generate industry‐wide spillover effects in the sanctioned country. Particularly, firms heavily reliant on imports from the United States and those solely dependent on China's domestic market experience significant effects. However, export controls have a negative impact on the innovation performance of U.S. suppliers. We examine the mechanisms driving these effects, including government grants, R&D investment and firm performance. Our work offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between export controls and innovation performance, highlighting the differentiated impacts on blacklisted firms, related industries and U.S. suppliers.
{"title":"Export controls and innovation performance: Unravelling the complex relationship between blacklisted Chinese firms and U.S. suppliers","authors":"Sajid Anwar, Beibei Hu, Qiao Luan, Kai Wang","doi":"10.1111/twec.13570","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13570","url":null,"abstract":"Export controls are crucial for protecting domestic economic interests globally. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding their impact on innovation performance. This study contributes to the literature by examining the effects of the U.S. entity list on the innovation performance of blacklisted Chinese firms and related industries, as well as the reverse shock on U.S. suppliers. Using propensity score matching and a difference‐in‐differences approach, we found that export controls stimulate technological innovation in blacklisted firms and generate industry‐wide spillover effects in the sanctioned country. Particularly, firms heavily reliant on imports from the United States and those solely dependent on China's domestic market experience significant effects. However, export controls have a negative impact on the innovation performance of U.S. suppliers. We examine the mechanisms driving these effects, including government grants, R&D investment and firm performance. Our work offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between export controls and innovation performance, highlighting the differentiated impacts on blacklisted firms, related industries and U.S. suppliers.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"44 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140252390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Starting with Tinbergen (1962, Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy, The Twentieth Century Fund), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen's very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.
从廷伯根（1962 年，《塑造世界经济：Suggestions for an international economic policy, The Twentieth Century Fund）开始，量化区域贸易协定（RTAs）对国际贸易流动的影响一直是贸易文献中最热门的话题之一。同样不足为奇的是，为了估算区域贸易协定的影响，大多数研究人员和政策分析师都依赖于贸易的主要模型--引力方程。在过去的 60 年中，区域贸易协定文献有了许多重要的发展，既有了更好的方法来量化其影响，也有了更多、更高质量的数据。本文旨在追溯从廷伯根的首次探索到今天，区域贸易协定文献中方法和数据发展的演变，并批判性地评估它们对我们衡量区域贸易协定（和其他政策）对国际贸易影响的能力的意义。
{"title":"Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data","authors":"Mario Larch, Yoto V. Yotov","doi":"10.1111/twec.13569","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13569","url":null,"abstract":"Starting with Tinbergen (1962, <i>Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy</i>, The Twentieth Century Fund), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen's very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140107577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
To minimise the negative ecological effects of soybean production, multi‐stakeholders along the global soybean supply chain collaborated to develop, implement and verify a global certification standard called the Round Table on Responsible Soy (RTRS). RTRS certification is almost a quasi‐mandatory sustainability standard; however, its potential trade effects remain poorly understood. Using a structural gravity model that exploits country variations in RTRS‐certified production volumes and certified land areas, we assess the effect of RTRS certification on soybean trade flows. We show that RTRS certification reduces trade flows, especially exports to non‐OECD countries. In essence, developing countries experience lower imports in response to standards than do developed countries. Thus, reconciling international trade with environmental sustainability goals remains a challenge.
{"title":"Assessing the effect of the Round Table on Responsible Soy certification on soybean exports","authors":"Yuquan Chen, D. Fiankor, Fuli Tan","doi":"10.1111/twec.13564","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13564","url":null,"abstract":"To minimise the negative ecological effects of soybean production, multi‐stakeholders along the global soybean supply chain collaborated to develop, implement and verify a global certification standard called the Round Table on Responsible Soy (RTRS). RTRS certification is almost a quasi‐mandatory sustainability standard; however, its potential trade effects remain poorly understood. Using a structural gravity model that exploits country variations in RTRS‐certified production volumes and certified land areas, we assess the effect of RTRS certification on soybean trade flows. We show that RTRS certification reduces trade flows, especially exports to non‐OECD countries. In essence, developing countries experience lower imports in response to standards than do developed countries. Thus, reconciling international trade with environmental sustainability goals remains a challenge.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"135 34","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140251371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：