Journal of public health medicine最新文献

Background: The objective of the review was to evaluate the extent, quality and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery.

Methods: A narrative systematic review was carried out of world literature from 1980 to 1999, searching Medline, INSPEC, Embase, HealthSTAR, Science Citation Index, CINAHL, MathSci, INFORMS Online and SIGLE databases, and researchers in the field were contacted. Papers were included if they contained a computer simulation model of individuals in a stochastic system and the topic or setting related to population health or health service delivery.

Results: A total of 182 papers met the inclusion criteria. Simulation modelling has been undertaken in a wide range of health care topic areas, including hospital scheduling and organization, communicable disease, screening, costs of illness and economic evaluation. However, the quality of published papers was variable and few reported on the outcomes of implementation of models, so that the value of modelling could not be assessed.

Conclusion: Simulation modelling is a powerful method for modelling both small and large populations to inform policy makers in the provision of health care. It has been applied to a wide variety of health care problems. Although the number of modelling papers has grown substantially over recent years, further research is required to assess the value of modelling.

Background: This paper examines recent trends in inequalities in psychological distress associated with the provision of unpaid care by those who look after frail older people and younger disabled adults and children. Caring activities intensified during the 1990s, associated with increasing amounts of time devoted to the more demanding types of care and to those relationships that typically make heavy demands on the carer. Heavy involvement in caregiving is often associated with symptoms of anxiety and distress, and the intensification of care may increase rates of distress in carers relative to that in non-carers.

Methods: A secondary analysis was carried out of data drawn from the first 10 waves of the British Household Panel Survey covering 1991-2000, based on around 9000 adults interviewed personally in successive waves. Symptoms of psychological distress, including anxiety and depression, were assessed using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire.

Results: Carers present higher rates of distress than noncarers and the health gap widens as the definition of caregiving focuses on those living with the person they care for, and those devoting 20 h or more per week to their caring activities. Differences in distress rates between carers and non-carers are greater for women than for men. There is no support for the hypothesis that inequalities in distress associated with caregiving have increased over time.

Conclusion: There was no change during the 1990s in the extent of inequalities in psychological distress associated with caregiving in Britain. The need to maintain carers' emotional and mental health is as compelling as ever it was.

Background: A number of different socio-economic classifications have been used in relation to health in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive power of different socio-economic classifications in relation to a range of health measures.

Methods: A postal questionnaire was sent to a random sample of adults in the West of Scotland (sampling from 1997 electoral roll, response rate 50 percent achieved sample 2,867).

Results: Associations between social position and health vary by socio-economic classification, health measure and gender. Limiting long-standing illness is more socially patterned than recent illness; income, Registrar General Social Class, housing tenure and car access are more predictive of health than the new National Statistics Socio Economic Classification; and men show steeper socio-economic gradients than women.

Conclusion: Although there is a consistent picture of poorer health among more disadvantaged groups, however measured, in seeking to explain and reduce social inequalities in health we need to take a more differentiated approach that does not assume equivalence among social classifications and health measures.

Hepatitis C (HCV) is an emerging health concern across the world, with 170 million people chronically infected and at risk of liver cancer, cirrhosis or liver failure. There is no vaccination and so it is important to learn as much as possible about how to prevent future infection. Modes of transmission include intravenous drug use (IDU), blood products, tattooing and, to a lesser extent, sexual intercourse. Homelessness is a risk factor of HCV because of the environments and behaviours associated with homeless communities such as poor hygiene, poor nutrition and high levels of IDU. The aim of this project was to determine the prevalence of HCV and its risk factors amongst the homeless community of Oxford, which is the second largest in the country. Ninety-eight individuals of the Oxford homeless community were interviewed and tested for HCV. The results gave an estimated HCV prevalence of 26.5 percent. The major risk factors in this population were IDU (past and present), age (over 20 years old) and sharing the paraphernalia used by i.v. drug users (e.g. spoons, foil and filters). With the exception of age, these risk factors could all be targeted in an attempt to reduce this prevalence and combat the major public health concern that HCV poses to the homeless community of Oxford.

Background: A sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) episode occurred in the United Kingdom in 1998. The worst affected area was the city of Nottingham.

Methods: Emergency hospital admissions in Nottingham in the episode week were compared with those in the previous week.

Results: A statistically significant increase in admissions for all respiratory diseases occurred in the episode week (odds ratio (OR) = 1.40, 95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.94). Ten of the 25 excess admissions were for asthma, although the excess for asthma alone was not statistically significant (OR = 1.90, 95 per cent CI = 0.87-4.15).

Conclusions: The excess admissions for respiratory diseases could have been caused by exposure to SO(2), to other pollutants present in increased concentrations during the pollution episode, or by seasonal variations in the frequency of asthma symptoms, or prevailing weather conditions. This study shows how simple analyses of routinely collected health data can be used to assess public health impacts of pollution episodes.

Background: Previous research suggests that there are significant differences in health between urban and rural areas. The aim of this study is to describe the pattern and magnitude of urban-rural variation in health in Scotland and to examine the factors associated with health inequalities in urban and rural areas.

Methods: The data used in this study were limiting long-term illness (LLTI) and socio-economic data collected by the 1991 Census. A rurality indicator was created using Scottish Household Survey rurality classifications. Multilevel Poisson regression modelling was carried out with LLTI as a health indicator for each type of rurality within Scotland. A variety of socio-economic factors were investigated for each rurality.

Results: Areas with the highest Standardized Illness Ratios (SIRs) (>125) are predominantly urban whereas the lowest SIRs (<75) are found in both urban and rural areas. Rural communities are more heterogeneous than urban areas in terms of their social make-up with relation to health; however, when these areas are split according to minor road length and different socio-economic factors are added, the model fit for each new model is improved and the reduction in total variation is comparable with that of the urban models.

Conclusion: These findings suggest that rural areas should not be treated as a homogeneous group but should be subdivided into rural types.

Background: Data are available on the prevalence of smoking states (never, current and ex). However, data on behaviour change rates (starting - never to current, quitting - current to ex and lapsing - ex to current) are not readily available and cannot be simply derived from or related to prevalence data.

Method: A model was constructed to relate prevalence of smoking states to behaviour change rates. It was populated with prevalence of smoking status taken from the General Household Survey together with population structure, age- and sex-specific death rates, and birth rates for England and Wales. This model could be used to calculate past behaviour change given observed prevalence of smoking states or future prevalence of smoking given predicted rates of behaviour change.

Results: To fit data it was necessary to assume that as they age some ex smokers reclassify themselves as never smokers. In the age band 16-19 years about 9 percent of never smokers start smoking, and about 5 percent of current smokers quit. In the age band 20-24 years the corresponding figures for starting are about 4 percent in males and 2 percent in females, and for quitting about 2 percent in both. In older age bands the percentages starting are zero or less than zero (indicating reclassifying), and the percentage quitting rises with age. Net lapsing (shift from ex to current) occurred very infrequently and is quantitatively unimportant. If the current starting, quitting and lapsing rates are maintained the Smoking kills target will not be met. Future prevalence of smoking under different scenarios is examined.

Conclusion: The model is useful in calculating the proportions changing smoking state from serial cross-sectional data on prevalence and for predicting future prevalence.

Based on a demographic surveillance population from 39 villages in rural Burkina Faso, we describe mortality patterns in adults (15-59 years) and older people (> or = 60 years), and discuss seasonal trends in mortality. During the study period 1993-1998, 589 deaths in adults and 593 deaths in older people were recorded from an average adult and older people population of 13 550. The crude all-cause mortality rate per 1000 for adults was 7.3 (95 per cent confidence interval (CI) 6.7-7.8) and for older people 55.8 (95 percent CI 51.3-60.3). The probability of dying before age 60 after reaching age 15 was 34 percent for males and 32 percent for females. Malaria and diarrhoea, recorded through verbal autopsy, accounted for 21 percent of total deaths in adults and 22 per cent in older people. A seasonal trend in mortality for older people with a peak in February was identified. The study shows that malaria is an important cause of death in adulthood.

This review paper examines (using systematic methodology) the evidence for the use of inhalation sedation (IHS) instead of dental general anaesthesia (DGA) for dental treatment. It finds that this is an area of healthcare lacking high-quality clinical evidence (i.e. derived from randomized controlled trials). However, evidence from seven case series studies (level of evidence 3) of variable quality and design is examined. Those studies suggest that IHS is effective for a large proportion (83-97 percent) of selected subgroups of children who would have otherwise required DGA. This may represent 45-64 percent of all children who are referred for DGA. There is a remarkable degree of consistency between all studies in the reported treatment effectiveness of IHS, despite differences in design and populations treated. IHS is particularly suitable for orthodontic treatment, for older children, and for children requiring no more than four extractions. Morbidity associated with IHS is minor and infrequent, and user satisfaction is high, or higher compared with DGA. Comparing with DGA, IHS requires significantly longer time per episode and more treatment sessions per patient. In teaching dental hospitals, staffing costs for IHS are estimated to be cheaper by about a third compared with outpatient DGA. Indications for further areas of research are made.